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mace
07-05-2009, 12:31 AM
Since the class of 09 is now filtering into the system, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take stock of the organization by position. Inasmuch as shortstop is the position that seems to attract the most concern and is also the one that has received the most help the last couple weeks, I thought I'd start with it.

I'll also do one for catcher. After that, if anyone wants to take a position and present it in a similar form, have at it.

AAA Louisville: Chris Valaika, 23 . . . strong hitter, fair fielder
AA Carolina: Zack Cozart, 23 . . . excellent fielder, surprising hitter
High-A Sarasota: Shane Carlson, 22 . . . unknown quantity
Low A: Miguel Rojas, 20 . . . excellent fielder, light but improving hitter
Rookie Billings: Mariekson Gregorius, 19 . . . promising hitter, unknown as fielder
Rookie GCL: Billy Hamilton, 18 . . . exciting offensive potential, raw fielder
Rookie DSL: Junior Arias, 17 . . . high ceiling as hitter, fielder
Pre-Rookie: Humberto Valor, 16 . . . smooth fielder, ostensibly skilled hitter

Estimated offensive rank at maturity
1. Valaika
2. Hamilton
3. Cozart
4. Arias
5. Valor
6. Gregorius
7. Carlson
8. Rojas

Estimated defensive rank at maturity
1. Rojas
2. Valor
3. Cozart
4. Arias
5. Valaika
6. Gregorius
7. Hamilton
8. Carlson

Comments: Did you know that Zack Cozart is two days older than Chris Valaika? Both will be 24 in August . . . Hey, this is mostly guesswork. For all I know, Shane Carlson could be the next Honus Wagner . . . And how do you compare a 16-year-old with a 23-year-old? . . . But the moral of the story is, thereís quite a bit of potential at this position, in spite of the fact that itís been described as an organizational trouble spot.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2009, 02:55 AM
I wouldn't leave out Yen Wen Kuo I have seen film on him as a SS and he looked like an extremely solid & instinctive fielder. He's a longshot but I think he is also hitting well enough for consideration on your list and a guy we should keep an eye on.

redsfandan
07-05-2009, 04:29 AM
The impression I have is that Cozart is the closest thing to being "the answer" at short so I was curious how many think he could be a realistic option in spring training.

dougdirt
07-05-2009, 04:44 AM
The impression I have is that Cozart is the closest thing to being "the answer" at short so I was curious how many think he could be a realistic option in spring training.

I think he should get at least 100 AAA at bats before he will be considered a real option. With that said, he might get his chance to get those at bats if he keeps it up. He has a bad May, but has really killed the ball outside of that stretch (.903 OPS when you don't include May). Send him to Louisville in August (or even sooner if he continues to rake) and get him that experience. Head into ST with him and Valaika fighting it out for SS.

redsof72
07-05-2009, 12:01 PM
I am not convinced yet that the Reds see Cozart as a major league starter. There are still plenty of people saying he projects as a utility player at the big league level. He has had a very good year though, especially in light of the fact that he skipped a level.

mth123
07-05-2009, 01:00 PM
I am not convinced yet that the Reds see Cozart as a major league starter. There are still plenty of people saying he projects as a utility player at the big league level. He has had a very good year though, especially in light of the fact that he skipped a level.

Seems to be on a fast track for a utility guy.

You are some one who seems to have first hand knowledge. Do you think Valiaka can stick at SS and be at least average defensively? My rule of thumb in the MI is if there are questions whether a guy has the defensive skills, then I really don't want him on a daily basis. SS is important enough that it should be a "no question" type IMO. Vailaika also has a history of batting average driven on base skills.His stint in the Hawaiin league a couple years ago flashed a big red warning sign and despite his contact skill, nothing has really addressed that weakness.

That is why Cozart has to be the man or its some one from outside IMO. Cozart seems to have requirement number 1 mastered (ability to field at the Major League level at least at league average). Requirement number two is the ability to contribute on offense (say .725 or better OPS). Cozart has some pop and his on base skills have been much better in 2009 than they were last year. You never really know about a guy's bat until he plays in the big leagues, but he seems to be the leading candidate IMO. If Cozart can hit seventh or eighth while being more than an automatic out, he's a perfectly fine SS while he's young and cheap. As he gets more expensive, I'd probably want more, but by then hopefully some one else (Rojas, Hamilton, Arias, Valor, etc.) may be on the horizon.

mace
07-05-2009, 05:23 PM
I wouldn't leave out Yen Wen Kuo I have seen film on him as a SS and he looked like an extremely solid & instinctive fielder. He's a longshot but I think he is also hitting well enough for consideration on your list and a guy we should keep an eye on.

Interesting. Some people seem to like him quite a bit as a hitter.

Also interesting is Sweet's comment today that Valaika probably doesn't profile as a major-league SS, but Rosales might. In Louisville's doubleheader today, Rosales has started both games at short and Valaika both games at second.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2009, 06:31 PM
Interesting. Some people seem to like him quite a bit as a hitter.

Also interesting is Sweet's comment today that Valaika probably doesn't profile as a major-league SS, but Rosales might. In Louisville's doubleheader today, Rosales has started both games at short and Valaika both games at second.

No to Valaika but yes to Rosales, that is some statement by Sweet.

mace
07-05-2009, 07:56 PM
No to Valaika but yes to Rosales, that is some statement by Sweet.

At the start of today's game thread, there was this, posted by Goya:

Sweet stated in an interview with Jim Kelch that Valaika is not projected as a big league SS so they are giving him experience at 2nd and will be playing him at 3rd soon. He said that they see Rosales as a possible big league SS. I can't say I agree with that.

redsof72
07-05-2009, 08:57 PM
I would say that Sweet has been told to get Valaika some work at other positions to try to make him into a utility player. The Rosales comment...well, I would think that is kind of a coach-speak way of saying "Rosales is the best guy we have available to play short on the current Louisville roster."

Cozart...there is mixed opinion. The only guy with a vote that really counts is Dusty and I am sure he has not seen much of Zack at all. Cozart can play a big league shortstop defensively. Will he hit? Hard to say. Rosales was hitting .438 in Louisville when they called him up and he hit .198 with the Reds.

One thing about Dusty that he keeps proving over and over: He will generally take a journeyman over an untested rookie 10 times out of 10. Hard to believe that a little over a year ago, Joey Votto was having a tough time winning the everyday job from Scott Hatteberg. He does not think about developing future starters. He thinks about putting together eight players that will give his team the best chance to win THAT DAY. You think he's going to want to play Zack Cozart over Jerry Hairston, Jr.?

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2009, 09:09 PM
I would say that Sweet has been told to get Valaika some work at other positions to try to make him into a utility player. The Rosales comment...well, I would think that is kind of a coach-speak way of saying "Rosales is the best guy we have available to play short on the current Louisville roster."

Cozart...there is mixed opinion. The only guy with a vote that really counts is Dusty and I am sure he has not seen much of Zack at all. Cozart can play a big league shortstop defensively. Will he hit? Hard to say. Rosales was hitting .438 in Louisville when they called him up and he hit .198 with the Reds.

One thing about Dusty that he keeps proving over and over: He will generally take a journeyman over an untested rookie 10 times out of 10. Hard to believe that a little over a year ago, Joey Votto was having a tough time winning the everyday job from Scott Hatteberg. He does not think about developing future starters. He thinks about putting together eight players that will give his team the best chance to win THAT DAY. You think he's going to want to play Zack Cozart over Jerry Hairston, Jr.?

Well if Walt is foolish enough to add Hairston to the roster yeah Dusty will play him. That's why I hope they sign Macier Izturis to about a 2-3 year deal in FA who can hold down the spot adequately for awhile until Cozart (or someone else) has beat down the proverbial door. But they probably won't because they will probably decide it's smarter to re-sign Hairston cheaper. F.O.'s can be some serious numbskulls.

redsmetz
07-07-2009, 11:27 PM
I would say that Sweet has been told to get Valaika some work at other positions to try to make him into a utility player. The Rosales comment...well, I would think that is kind of a coach-speak way of saying "Rosales is the best guy we have available to play short on the current Louisville roster."

Cozart...there is mixed opinion. The only guy with a vote that really counts is Dusty and I am sure he has not seen much of Zack at all. Cozart can play a big league shortstop defensively. Will he hit? Hard to say. Rosales was hitting .438 in Louisville when they called him up and he hit .198 with the Reds.

One thing about Dusty that he keeps proving over and over: He will generally take a journeyman over an untested rookie 10 times out of 10. Hard to believe that a little over a year ago, Joey Votto was having a tough time winning the everyday job from Scott Hatteberg. He does not think about developing future starters. He thinks about putting together eight players that will give his team the best chance to win THAT DAY. You think he's going to want to play Zack Cozart over Jerry Hairston, Jr.?

I think that's too pat. That's the common impression on RZ, but I don't think it's an accurate picture. I saw Hatteberg on the club to be there as Votto was eased in. Votto pushed Hatteberg out of the picture. I've seen Baker incredibly patient with Jay Bruce and he's the first manager who, I think, has been patient with Edwin Encarnacion. Hairston has gotten playing time, particularly at short, because of the injury to Gonzalez. I just don't think Baker is a single minded in the manner many think he is here on Redszone. He's not perfect, but he's good for an organization such as where the Reds are right now, IMO.

Kingspoint
07-08-2009, 08:56 PM
The only guy with a vote that really counts is Dusty and I am sure he has not seen much of Zack at all.

I'm guessing Dusty puts in as much "extra" time as a postal worker.

redsmetz
07-09-2009, 10:28 AM
I'm guessing Dusty puts in as much "extra" time as a postal worker.

Do you know any major league manager who doesn't put in many more hours than most of us work? I suspect any manager's day starts earlier than we expect (noonish?) and goes until about an hour or more after the end of the game.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 11:06 AM
Do you know any major league manager who doesn't put in many more hours than most of us work? I suspect any manager's day starts earlier than we expect (noonish?) and goes until about an hour or more after the end of the game.

So that's what- 10-11 hours a day? So what? That's what most Americans work. It's a cushy job, there is no doubt about it.

redsmetz
07-09-2009, 11:18 AM
So that's what- 10-11 hours a day? So what? That's what most Americans work. It's a cushy job, there is no doubt about it.

My point is that it strikes me as gratuitous to suggest that Baker doesn't put in the hours and is slacking. But that's typical for RZ where the disdain for Baker runs constant and deep. Oh well, par for the course around these environs.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 12:40 PM
It's actually 12-15 hours a day, if you assume he's at the ballpark when the players arrive. Not to mention the hourse spent talking outside of the park.

It's a high stress job, too, with every idiot with a keyboard and a working knowledge of the infield fly rule thinking he could do better.

Yeah, cushy.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 12:45 PM
It's actually 12-15 hours a day, if you assume he's at the ballpark when the players arrive. Not to mention the hourse spent talking outside of the park.

It's a high stress job, too, with every idiot with a keyboard and a working knowledge of the infield fly rule thinking he could do better.

Yeah, cushy.

I'd gladly take it. You wouldn't?

I don't know about you, but I've had some high-stress jobs in my day. I'd hardly call managing a baseball game a high-stress activity.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 01:16 PM
Well, let's see. You have to be a priest, a psychologist, a general, a babysitter, a cheerleader, a philosopher, a speech writer, a teacher, among others. And every decision you make is dissected and torn apart by thousands. Not only that, five or six guys each night write an article that praises or tears you apart. And, when you happen to step out of the dugout, you hear boos. Lots of them.

And, if any of those people happen to hear you being negative or perhaps you don't communicate what you want, you hear it double the next day.

I'd say being an mlb manager is among the highest stress jobs in the country.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 01:20 PM
Well, let's see. You have to be a priest, a psychologist, a general, a babysitter, a cheerleader, a philosopher, a speech writer, a teacher, among others. And every decision you make is dissected and torn apart by thousands. Not only that, five or six guys each night write an article that praises or tears you apart. And, when you happen to step out of the dugout, you hear boos. Lots of them.

And, if any of those people happen to hear you being negative or perhaps you don't communicate what you want, you hear it double the next day.

I'd say being an mlb manager is among the highest stress jobs in the country.

Like I said, I'd gladly take it. You wouldn't?

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 01:30 PM
Sure, I would. But I'd also like to be a surgeon and President. And those jobs are also far from "cushy".

medford
07-09-2009, 02:18 PM
I doubt most americans work 11-12 hours a day. I don't know what the average would be, but its gotta be less than 8. Of course most working americans don't get a 5 month break over the winter months.

none the less, I think its gotta be a much more stressful job than you're giving it credit for benihana. Sure it could be a fun job, an extremely rewarding job if your winning, and of course most are paid pretty well, but that doesn't mean there isn't stress involved. A manager isn't going to cure cancer to create world peace, but I garuntee you more people will have an opinion of Dusty's 3 hour performance during tonight's game than will have an opinion of what President Obama does today, baring a major new event/press conference.

Most people don't think themselves fully capable of leading this county, though each has ideas of how to do things "better". I'm guessing many at tonight's game think they could fill out the Phillies lineup tonight just as easily as their manager does, while making just as good of decisions, if not better on when to pull the pitcher, put in a pinch hitter, etc... Most people don't think about all the behind the scene stuff that goes on with a baseball team. Its a fun job, its an exciting job, heck alot of the day to day functions are not all that hard to even execute, but its also a stressful job for which most are well rewarded.

redsmetz
07-09-2009, 02:33 PM
Seems to be on a fast track for a utility guy.

You are some one who seems to have first hand knowledge. Do you think Valiaka can stick at SS and be at least average defensively? My rule of thumb in the MI is if there are questions whether a guy has the defensive skills, then I really don't want him on a daily basis. SS is important enough that it should be a "no question" type IMO. Vailaika also has a history of batting average driven on base skills.His stint in the Hawaiin league a couple years ago flashed a big red warning sign and despite his contact skill, nothing has really addressed that weakness.

That is why Cozart has to be the man or its some one from outside IMO. Cozart seems to have requirement number 1 mastered (ability to field at the Major League level at least at league average). Requirement number two is the ability to contribute on offense (say .725 or better OPS). Cozart has some pop and his on base skills have been much better in 2009 than they were last year. You never really know about a guy's bat until he plays in the big leagues, but he seems to be the leading candidate IMO. If Cozart can hit seventh or eighth while being more than an automatic out, he's a perfectly fine SS while he's young and cheap. As he gets more expensive, I'd probably want more, but by then hopefully some one else (Rojas, Hamilton, Arias, Valor, etc.) may be on the horizon.

I thought I'd pull forward the last post that specifically addressed the question of shortstops, etc. I hadn't intended to pull the thread away from the original topic.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 02:44 PM
but I garuntee you more people will have an opinion of Dusty's 3 hour performance during tonight's game than will have an opinion of what President Obama does today, baring a major new event/press conference.

Um, seriously?

I think you may be suffering from too much exposure to RedsZone. :cool:

Sorry, I'm done hijacking this thread. On to shortstops!

mace
07-09-2009, 02:56 PM
If we're getting back to shortstops, we might want to point out that our precocious Amsterdammer, 19-year-old Mariekson Gregorius, is now hitting .529 for Billings. Of course, it's only 17 ABs, but you know--get 'em while they're hot. (We won't mention last year's .155 in the GCL.) 6-1, 160, bats left. Apparently fields pretty well, considering the wooden shoes and all.

redsmetz
07-09-2009, 03:29 PM
If we're getting back to shortstops, we might want to point out that our precocious Amsterdammer, 19-year-old Mariekson Gregorius, is now hitting .529 for Billings. Of course, it's only 17 ABs, but you know--get 'em while they're hot. (We won't mention last year's .155 in the GCL.) 6-1, 160, bats left. Apparently fields pretty well, considering the wooden shoes and all.

At 19, is he young for that level? Did he play in Holland or is he out of Curcao?

mace
07-09-2009, 03:57 PM
Seems on the youngish side to me. I believe he's the second youngest guy on the team (after Daniel Corcino). It says he's from Amsterdam, so I'm assuming he's not a Curacaoian, if there is such a thing; or is it a Curiosity?

(In the interest of full disclosure, I stole the wooden shoes line from one of your posts a while back.)

redsmetz
07-09-2009, 04:14 PM
Seems on the youngish side to me. I believe he's the second youngest guy on the team (after Daniel Corcino). It says he's from Amsterdam, so I'm assuming he's not a Curacaoian, if there is such a thing; or is it a Curiosity?

(In the interest of full disclosure, I stole the wooden shoes line from one of your posts a while back.)

Yes, yes. I recognized it. I'll waive the royalty though.

I wonder if there might not be a good thread in analysizing how our European players are progressing.

BTW, I thought 19 was probably young, so that number could be a bit more impressive, although he's been playing pro ball for a year and I'm guessing the Pioneer League is a mix of newbies and FSL and DSL players.

medford
07-09-2009, 04:59 PM
Um, seriously?

I think you may be suffering from too much exposure to RedsZone. :cool:

Sorry, I'm done hijacking this thread. On to shortstops!

Not to hijack this thread, but yes I'm serious.

There will be 30k+ at the stadium to watch the reds/phils, plus another how many thousands watching on TV. I'm guessing very few people have any clue what Obama is doing today, good or bad, therefor, more people will specifically worry about what dusty does b/w 7 & 10 than what Obama does specifically today.

Now if we're talking overall body of work, if you will, then obviously more care about Obama, but far less than it should be. Heck, many americans couldn't even tell you the current VP or previous VP, there are far more ignorant people out there than you realize.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:05 PM
Not to hijack this thread, but yes I'm serious.

There will be 30k+ at the stadium to watch the reds/phils, plus another how many thousands watching on TV. I'm guessing very few people have any clue what Obama is doing today, good or bad, therefor, more people will specifically worry about what dusty does b/w 7 & 10 than what Obama does specifically today.

Now if we're talking overall body of work, if you will, then obviously more care about Obama, but far less than it should be. Heck, many americans couldn't even tell you the current VP or previous VP, there are far more ignorant people out there than you realize.

I'm sorry, I cannot dignify this with a response.

GIDP
07-09-2009, 05:08 PM
I like politics

klw
07-09-2009, 05:10 PM
Well there are 4 vice presidents.


Bob Miller Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Bill Bavasi VP of Scouting, Player Dev. and International Ops
Jerry Walker Vice President and Special Assistant to the GM
Dick Williams Vice President of Baseball Operations

medford
07-09-2009, 05:33 PM
sorry to bring up any politics, its just my belief that there are very few people that care what the president does day to day, they only care when we buy GM, go to war, or give health care, etc; most days nothing happens that specific day that affects our individual lifes. Besides, that's not really the point I was trying to make, only that Dusty's job has much more pressure than some realize or are willing to admit. And no, its not more pressure than the president's job.

anyhoo, back to SS, I like the direction they've taken this position in the last season +. Outside of Cozart, most of its in the low minors, but there's a base forming that could turn it into a position of strength in a few seasons. Good pitching and SS depth can easily be flipped to get strong at other positions on the major league club.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 05:37 PM
I agree.

Kingspoint
07-09-2009, 07:55 PM
My point is that it strikes me as gratuitous to suggest that Baker doesn't put in the hours and is slacking. But that's typical for RZ where the disdain for Baker runs constant and deep. Oh well, par for the course around these environs.

Dusty's exact quote as to what he was going to do with Drew Sutton: "I haven't seen him. So, he'll sit for a few days."

Kingspoint
07-09-2009, 07:56 PM
Well, let's see. You have to be a priest, a psychologist, a general, a babysitter, a cheerleader, a philosopher, a speech writer, a teacher, among others. And every decision you make is dissected and torn apart by thousands. Not only that, five or six guys each night write an article that praises or tears you apart. And, when you happen to step out of the dugout, you hear boos. Lots of them.

And, if any of those people happen to hear you being negative or perhaps you don't communicate what you want, you hear it double the next day.

I'd say being an mlb manager is among the highest stress jobs in the country.

In Dusty's case all you have to do is be stubborn.

No, it's not even in the top 33% of high-stress jobs in the country. Not the way Dusty does it.

Kingspoint
07-09-2009, 07:57 PM
I doubt most americans work 11-12 hours a day. I don't know what the average would be, but its gotta be less than 8.

It's 7.6.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm