Baseball Situation: What Would You Do?

[REDSEER]

I am helping my dad coach an American Legion baseball team this summer along with my older brother. My dad usually coaches third base and my older brother coaches first, which leaves me to do the charting/see things from the bench role. Every time we get to a game I tell my dad (playfully), "Think it's time to get tossed from a game yet? I want to take over third base ;)"

Well it finally happened last night, in the championship of a weekend tournament. My dad got tossed for a series of tongue-in-cheek comments to the umpire, leaving me (20 years old) and my brother (22 years old) to coach some 16-18 year olds.

Anyway, here's the situation: our team (home) was down 6-4 in the bottom of the 6th inning of a 7 inning game with men on first and second, no outs, and our 9th hitter up. I gave my first signs as a coach (as my younger brother, a player, makes fun of my sign giving from the bench), the obvious bunt sign. Unfortunately, he popped the bunt up, leaving us the same situation with one out and the top of the order up.

Our leadoff hitter is a solid OBP guy and will come up with the occasional double. In the two hole is our hottest hitter who has been hitting the ball hard all weekend long and has average power.

Do you bunt with the leadoff hitter or let him swing? And why?

I'll tell what happened after some responses.

[dfs]

The numbers say swing away with your high OBP guy. No question about it.

[reds1869]

I let him swing away. At that point in the game giving away outs is a bad decision...outs are the most precious commodity in baseball and that is especially true late in the game. That said, anything can--and does--happen.

[oneupper]

Don't bunt. There's one out already. You're still two runs down. You have two good hitters coming up.
Even if successful, a bunt by the leadoff guy could cause the opposing team to pitch around your hot hitter (#2).

[RFS62]

Can't be giving away outs there. OK to sac with the number 9 hitter, but not past that.

If your leadoff hitter is a good bat on ball guy, maybe put the runners in motion to stay out of the dp. But no sac's with that few outs left.

[edabbs44]

No bunt. No brainer.

[kaldaniels]

How about this? Taking all the way, square around to bunt on the first pitch. Then bring out the butcher boy. Just a fun idea.

Regardless...you swing away.

[REDSEER]

I thought the same thing. There was no way that I was going to give up outs that late in the game at the top of the order.

Our leadoff hitter worked the count to 3-1, then hit a lazy fly ball to right, advancing no runners. Our second hitter then stepped up only to hit a laser to right field......only to be caught by a leaping right fielder....

My brother came in from first and said that he would've liked to bunt with our leadoff hitter, with me telling him essentially what this thread says. I didn't think that there was anything I could do except give him the chance and play for the big inning.

Regardless, we went down 1-2-3 in the 7th.

I'm now 0-1 in leading comebacks :rolleyes:

[reds1869]

You still made a sound decision. If you had bunted you may have had the same result.

[PuffyPig]

Bunting with your 9th guy may be debatable (though in your circumstances I would bunt), but with 1 out and your lead off hitter AB there could be no debate.

[Johnny Footstool]

Bunting is "old school, by-the-book" baseball. Unfortunately, statistics show that it doesn't work as well as letting guys swing the bat, especially if those guys are good hitters to begin with.

Now, if the leadoff hitter is speedy and a good bunter, it would have been interesting to start the runners, then have the hitter bunt down the third base line. Or better yet, have the hitter fake a bunt to draw the third baseman in, thus allowing the runners to steal. But that's me just trying to be creative. If I was in your situation, I would have done exactly what you did.

[RichRed]

You made the right call, REDSEER, it just didn't work out. That's baseball.

[IslandRed]

Bunting is "old school, by-the-book" baseball. Unfortunately, statistics show that it doesn't work as well as letting guys swing the bat, especially if those guys are good hitters to begin with.

I think it's important to mention that the stats used to prove the point are based on MLB particulars, and the calculus changes when discussing different levels and environments. Particularly in amateur ball, there are wide variations in the quality of the players, not to mention the ability of the defense to turn a bunt into the expected out. But based on his description of the players involved, I agree with the swing-away decision.

[flyer85]

keep bunting til you get it right. :D

[REDSEER]

Thanks for the replies, everyone. Now I have some ammunition for the family naysayers :D.

[RedsManRick]

A bunt gives you one out to score the runs. When you think of it terms of cutting your opportunities to score in half, the decision is obvious.

[Johnny Footstool]

I think it's important to mention that the stats used to prove the point are based on MLB particulars, and the calculus changes when discussing different levels and environments. Particularly in amateur ball, there are wide variations in the quality of the players, not to mention the ability of the defense to turn a bunt into the expected out. But based on his description of the players involved, I agree with the swing-away decision.

You're absolutely right. But I'm assuming that the skill of the fielders are probably on par with the bunting skill of the batter, so the odds of success are probably very similar to what they are at a major league level.

[dfs]

You're absolutely right. But I'm assuming that the skill of the fielders are probably on par with the bunting skill of the batter, so the odds of success are probably very similar to what they are at a major league level.
I'm pretty sure that's not true. The fielders at the major league level are very, very good. Thus the chance for a misplay is much larger here swaying the decision very much in the direction of bunting. Still, unless we're talking about T-ball fielding, it's not going to be enough.

Not bunting was absolutely the right thing to do. If you're brother thinks that's wrong, You might thing about constructiong some games with him along the lines of the situation and take advantage of him.

[Johnny Footstool]

I'm pretty sure that's not true. The fielders at the major league level are very, very good. Thus the chance for a misplay is much larger here swaying the decision very much in the direction of bunting. Still, unless we're talking about T-ball fielding, it's not going to be enough.

I'd say the bunting skills at that level are pretty weak, too. But still, like you said, it's not enough to sway the decision.

[IslandRed]

I'd say the bunting skills at that level are pretty weak, too. But still, like you said, it's not enough to sway the decision.

Yeah, it comes back to knowing the players. In Legion ball, good bunter + bad third baseman can be a chance worth taking.

Now, having already commented on the iffiness of using MLB stats to analyze American Legion situations, I'm going to pretend I didn't say it for a moment. :p: I was surprised when I used the Win Expectancy Finder to look at the equivalent situation in MLB (bottom of the eighth instead of bottom of the sixth, down two) and compared first-and-second, one out with second-and-third, two out. The win percentages were virtually identical (20.8% not sacrificing, 20.2% sacrificing), closer than I'd have figured, which suggests... well, I'm not sure what. I guess the benefits of saving the out are largely canceled by the increased degree of difficulty of needing either multiple hits or an extra-base hit to get the tying run across...

Well, maybe this explains it. Assume for a moment the team holds in the top of the ninth. If the team plates only one run in the eighth, it has an 18.8% chance of winning going into the bottom of the ninth down one. Tied coming up to bat in the ninth? 65.6%. Apparently, pushing across both runners and knotting it up in the eighth matters quite a bit.

With the top of the order up, though, I still prefer swinging away in that situation.

[Highlifeman21]

Not 100% convinced to bunt with the 9 guy, but letting the leadoff guy swing away was the right play IMO.

[bucksfan2]

If I had to make a decision right away I would have given the square to bunt, take sign. i would make the batter take until he got a strike.

This all could change depending on the corner defensive players as well as the pitcher. What also would be nice to know is the speed of the #2 hitter as well as his ability to bunt.

IMO you made a good decision that didn't work out. I would also say the same thing if you bunted. You could make arguments for and against both of them. Baseball is full of these examples.