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TRF
07-06-2009, 01:36 PM
At 40-40, theoretically, the team is in the mix. a 8-10 game winning streak, not impossible, could give them the division or WC lead.

OR.....

They make the move right now to really get better. We all know the areas of need.. SS, LF, 3B, CF.

My plan doesn't preclude a trip to the playoffs, but it does make the team stronger for 2010.


DFA Willy Taveras

He's an absolute drain on the offense, and he's more than replaceable with Dickerson for 2009, and Stubbs or Heisey in 2010. Eat his salary and move on.

Improvement: 2009 and beyond.


DFA Arroyo

He'll never clear waivers. Work out a trade and get what you can. Again, eat whatever salary you have to. Bailey slides to the #5 spot in the rotation.

Improvement: 2009 possible, 2010 probable.


Option Jay Bruce to AAA

He's overmatched right now, and needs some development and confidence. He's a kid that got the Dunn treatment without dominating the minor like Dunn did.


Trade for Josh Willingham and Brandon Wood


Both players would instantly solidify the Reds lineup. Willingham in RF for the rest of this year and Wood at SS. Willingham slides over to LF next year or in Sept. when Bruce returns.

Improvement at SS immediate, Improvement in the OF Immediate.

That gives the Reds this lineup and rotation for 2009, in no particular order...

ok, in my order. :)

CF Dickerson
3B EE
1B Votto
RF Willingham
2B BP
LF Gomes Nix
C Hanigan/Hernandez
SS Wood
P


Rotation

Harang
Cueto
Owings
Bailey
Volquez when he returns, Maloney till then

This requires bold action and assumes Maloney isn't a part of any deal for Wood or Willingham. If he is, Lehr is the guy. But t hat's a temporary move as Volquez should be ready by the trade deadline. This scenario doesn't make use of unrealistic trade proposals, just some common sense moves. Trading for Wood will require a talent for talent swap. So what are the Angel's area's of need? Willingham likely won't cost as much. Maybe one of Stubbs/Heisey and a pitcher. LeCure maybe?

Thoughts?

Add your REALISTIC moves. I'd like to see how far out there I am.

OnBaseMachine
07-06-2009, 02:01 PM
Send Jay Bruce to Triple-A? Big no thanks. For all of his struggles, Jay Bruce has a .756 OPS despite having guys like Alex Gonzalez and Ramon Hernandez protecting him in the lineup. Not to mention he's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Sending him to Triple-A would be one of the worst moves the Reds have made in a long time. Bruce posted a .974 OPS in AAA and .921 OPS in the minors. He has nothing left to in the minors.

As for the other moves, I agree with ya on Taveras. I would DFA him immediately.

I also like Brandon Wood as a trade target.

TRF
07-06-2009, 02:22 PM
OBM, it has nothing to do with protection. The power is there, but he's being fooled by EVERYBODY. He's getting worse as the season progresses.

He needs something.

nate
07-06-2009, 02:32 PM
I don't agree with sending Bruce down. Let him learn up here. He's not going to learn what he needs to learn in Louisville. JMO.

TRF
07-06-2009, 02:35 PM
I don't agree with sending Bruce down. Let him learn up here. He's not going to learn what he needs to learn in Louisville. JMO.

And if at the end of July he posts another sub .700 OPS?

bucksfan2
07-06-2009, 02:39 PM
I don't agree with sending Bruce down. Let him learn up here. He's not going to learn what he needs to learn in Louisville. JMO.

I agree but if he continues to struggle he needs to go down and get his confidence up. He needs to see the ball better. A 10 game stint in the minors may be helpful for Bruce if the continues to struggle.

Benihana
07-06-2009, 02:45 PM
No reason to DFA Arroyo. I agree he needs to improve, but I'd wait until he shows something, then try to slip him through (revocable) waivers- in August, he might get through. If he doesn't improve in the next 2-3 starts, I might consider DL'ing him.

I also wouldn't send Bruce down. I might get him a RH-platoon partner (Dukes, D.Young, Willingham, etc.) to face lefties, but I think he needs to work this out in the bigs. I also like Wood as a trade target, as well as the guys I mentioned above.

TRF
07-06-2009, 02:51 PM
I've been giving D. Young a lot of thought, and the ONLY way I go after him is if I can option him immediately.

nate
07-06-2009, 02:55 PM
And if at the end of July he posts another sub .700 OPS?


I agree but if he continues to struggle he needs to go down and get his confidence up. He needs to see the ball better. A 10 game stint in the minors may be helpful for Bruce if the continues to struggle.

I don't think he's suffering from a lack of confidence. I think he's suffering from a lack of big league pitch recognition. Namely, big league breaking balls. I think he just needs to work through it.

Benihana
07-06-2009, 03:32 PM
I've been giving D. Young a lot of thought, and the ONLY way I go after him is if I can option him immediately.

I think he would benefit by just hitting against lefties (and not playing everyday.) While his splits are only slightly better vs. lefties (.770 OPS vs. 712 vs. righties) I do think it might serve as a wake-up call when he only gets to play 2-3 days a week. That said, if/when he snaps out of it, you have your everyday RH-hitting LF with All-Star written all over him.

The exact same thing could be said for Elijah Dukes. Both are reportedly available right now on the cheap. These are the exact type of crafty, low-risk, long-term high-upside moves that Fay was referring to. Make something happen Walt.

dougdirt
07-06-2009, 05:23 PM
OBM, it has nothing to do with protection. The power is there, but he's being fooled by EVERYBODY. He's getting worse as the season progresses.

He needs something.

If he is being fooled by everybody why isn't he striking out a ton? Why is he walking plenty? Why is he holding an isolated power number of .241?

What is sending him to AAA going to do? Make his solid strikeout numbers get better? Make his strong walk rate get better? Make his power numbers get better? What will AAA do for him? What can be 'fixed' there that can't be here? Is Louisville where he can learn to hit it where they aren't?

TRF
07-06-2009, 06:09 PM
If he is being fooled by everybody why isn't he striking out a ton? Why is he walking plenty? Why is he holding an isolated power number of .241?

What is sending him to AAA going to do? Make his solid strikeout numbers get better? Make his strong walk rate get better? Make his power numbers get better? What will AAA do for him? What can be 'fixed' there that can't be here? Is Louisville where he can learn to hit it where they aren't?

dunno... maybe fix that sub .300 OBP?

Homer Bailey
07-06-2009, 06:31 PM
dunno... maybe fix that sub .300 OBP?

It's been discussed in great detail here.... http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=75819

.... that if he has a somewhat normal BABIP he'd be getting on base at around a .340 clip.

RedEye
07-06-2009, 06:38 PM
Put me on the "Jay Bruce doesn't need to be sent down" bandwagon. He has nothing left to prove at AAA. He needs to learn in the majors. If he had a .250/.340/.500 line right now, I don't think anyone would be concerned--and one of the main reasons he doesn't have that line is pure, dumb luck.

TRF
07-06-2009, 06:44 PM
I'm not a Bruce hater. I think he's the single most important position player the Reds have.

That stated, I don't completely buy into BABIP as luck only. You don't hover around .200 for two straight months because of luck. And he doesn't have Dunn's BB ability to offset it.

RedEye
07-06-2009, 06:52 PM
I'm not a Bruce hater. I think he's the single most important position player the Reds have.

That stated, I don't completely buy into BABIP as luck only. You don't hover around .200 for two straight months because of luck. And he doesn't have Dunn's BB ability to offset it.

From earlier discussions of this subject on other threads, I think the number to look at here is LD%, which often correlates with how "effective" someone's BABIP percentage can be. IIRC, Bruce's LD% has indeed gone down somewhat this year, which means he's hitting a lot of GO instead of roping the ball around the diamond like he used to. Still, even with that taken into consideration, he's been one of the most unlucky hitters in MLB during the first half.

The problem is that AAA pitching is not going to help Bruce solve his problem. What he needs help with is recognizing and making good contact with ML quality stuff. He also needs help from the baseball gods (or Lady Luck) to makes sure when he does make good contact, he's not hitting the ball right at someone--or getting robbed by a ridiculously good catch in the IF or OF.

Few players have Dunn's BB ability. That said, my impression is that Bruce has actually been off-setting his low BA with rather decent plate discipline this year. When you are hitting .200, a OBP hovering around .300 is actually not a bad accomplishment. It's not a Dunn-esque level, but it's plenty competent. I don't think walking is his problem here.

RedsManRick
07-06-2009, 07:33 PM
I'm not a Bruce hater. I think he's the single most important position player the Reds have.

That stated, I don't completely buy into BABIP as luck only. You don't hover around .200 for two straight months because of luck. And he doesn't have Dunn's BB ability to offset it.

Yes, Bruce is hitting a line drives at a very low rate. We can certainly fault him for that if we want. But he is also getting significantly worse results on his line drives than most players do on their's. Do you subscribe to the argument that Bruce is hitting significantly worse line drives than most major leaguers as a result of some skill deficiency? And if so, how do we explain his significant isolated power?

Seems to me like the area where Bruce is struggling is hitting singles. And yet, his contact rate is up significantly from last year. It just doesn't add up that Bruce is doing something wrong. Even considering the low LD% and inflated FB%, consider the success this guy is having...

LD: 16.3% (Bruce 13.2)
GB: 35.9% (Bruce 37.0)
FB: 47.8% (Bruce 49.8)
BABIP: .293 (Bruce .211)

Yeah, that first guy is Albert Pujols. Either Pujols is hitting "better" grounders, line drives, and fly balls (and I'd love to see the hit f/x data to support that) or his are finding the holes that Bruce's aren't. I'm completely willing to believe that that is the case to a degree, but certainly not to the degree we've seen. I'd put $20 on Bruce have a BABIP north of .275 and an OPS north of .850 from this point forward. When those singles start falling in at the rate they should, his slash stats will take off.

TRF
07-06-2009, 08:27 PM
And all the numbers mean virtually nothing in the context of a young player hitting .200. Certain numbers are drilled into players heads at a young age. I know Bruce is likely never going to hit .300, but he's miles from .275 and that could be frustrating him. I do think a 10-14 day stint in the minors could focus him or just give him a confidence boost. I don't think it's something that needs to last a long time.

I don't want this to be a Bruce only thread. I'd also like to hear arguments for going for it and how that could be achieved.

Highlifeman21
07-06-2009, 08:32 PM
And all the numbers mean virtually nothing in the context of a young player hitting .200. Certain numbers are drilled into players heads at a young age. I know Bruce is likely never going to hit .300, but he's miles from .275 and that could be frustrating him. I do think a 10-14 day stint in the minors could focus him or just give him a confidence boost. I don't think it's something that needs to last a long time.

I don't want this to be a Bruce only thread. I'd also like to hear arguments for going for it and how that could be achieved.

Was it 2007 or 2008 where EE went down for a short stint and then came back and beat the cover off the ball?

Something similar could work for Bruce. Build confidence while beating up on AAA pitching.

wally post
07-06-2009, 08:39 PM
I also think it wouldn't be a bad idea to send Bruce down for a brief period)

about t his thread - I vote BOLD FUTURE.
I don't see how going for it can result in anything other than a regretted exchange of young for old or temporary replacement players.
And while I'm in the mood... I am so tired of seeing EE's errant throws from third.. move him to the outfield or trade him for somebody that will help us. Trade Arroyo, and/or Harang for more near ready for the ML talent or a shortstop (our greatest need). Perhaps get a third baseman stop-gap as well so that maybe we can finish at .500 this year.

RedEye
07-06-2009, 09:42 PM
And all the numbers mean virtually nothing in the context of a young player hitting .200. Certain numbers are drilled into players heads at a young age. I know Bruce is likely never going to hit .300, but he's miles from .275 and that could be frustrating him. I do think a 10-14 day stint in the minors could focus him or just give him a confidence boost. I don't think it's something that needs to last a long time.

I don't want this to be a Bruce only thread. I'd also like to hear arguments for going for it and how that could be achieved.

I wonder if it would help Bruce at all to know that that .200 line is not due, really, to anything he has done. Do you honestly think it would be better psychologically for him to be demoted? What if he, perchance, struggles against AAA pitchers as well? Then he would really hit rock bottom. Instead, I would suggest that "working it out" at the major league level has the potential to give Bruce all kinds of confidence. It's something that he's going to have to do throughout his long ML career. And, at some point, he'll realize that these things have more to do with luck than with his approach.

I didn't mean to turn this into a Bruce thread either. But, well, I really disagree with that aspect of your post. FWIW, IMO, the Bronson Arroyo DFA is probably a bit hasty as well. Far better to wait and see how he pitches this month--and to see whether there is a market for him at the deadline. Right?

TRF
07-06-2009, 10:03 PM
Arroyo was bad in April when he went 3-1, was average in May when he went 4-2 and has been abysmal since June 1.

He's either hurt or he's done. at the very least he needs to be DL'd.

RedEye
07-06-2009, 10:07 PM
Arroyo was bad in April when he went 3-1, was average in May when he went 4-2 and has been abysmal since June 1.

He's either hurt or he's done. at the very least he needs to be DL'd.

DL'd maybe. But DFA'd? Wouldn't that be the ultimate sell-low strategy?

Arroyo has value. He's a league-average, innings-eater with a track record. He has off months all the time, and he always bounces back to the mean.

The Reds should wait, perhaps DL, but not DFA.

RedEye
07-06-2009, 10:09 PM
FWIW, I agree with some of your propositions:

DFA Willy Taveras
Trade for Josh Willingham
Trade for Brandon Wood

If the front office did these two of these three things (or all of them) and kept Bruce and Arroyo in Reds uniforms, I might awaken from my mediocrity-induced slumber for a day or two.