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Benihana
07-07-2009, 10:57 AM
I have been a strong opponent of dealing Aaron Harang in recent weeks. However, with the Reds' recent performance and Bronson Arroyo's implosion, it is becoming more and more evident that Harang will end up on the trading block as we approach the end of the month. Given the Halladay rumors/thread and the Harang/Kemp thread, I was thinking about potential suitors and a proper return. Published reports seem to indicate the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers are the most interested parties in acquiring a player like Harang (the Rangers likely can't afford his contract.) So my question is this- what do you look for in a realistic return for Harang at this point? Which one of the above deals would you like best? Are they too much or too little for a workhorse like Harang? Keep in mind this appears to be a sellers' market, and the losers of the Halladay derby may be inclined to overpay. Is there any way the Reds would deal with Milwaukee and keep him in the division?

EDIT: I should have added a fifth and sixth option:

5. ALL OF THE ABOVE
6. NONE OF THE ABOVE

Feel free to include these in text below.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 11:05 AM
The Phillies would never give up that package in return.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 11:09 AM
Brewers wouldn't either. Escobar is "untouchable", or so they say.

nate
07-07-2009, 11:09 AM
The best trade for the Reds is the one to the Brewers.

I'm not sure how good that trade is for the Brewers though.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 11:24 AM
The Yanks weren't willing to give up Hughes to get Johan. I seriously doubt they would be willing to give him up to get Harang.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 11:25 AM
The Yanks weren't willing to give up Hughes to get Johan. I seriously doubt they would be willing to give him up to get Harang.

As has been pointed out countless times, that's faulty logic. That was over a year ago, and things have changed.

(See the Reds refusal to trade Pokey Reese for KGJ as an example of this logic)

schroomytunes
07-07-2009, 11:29 AM
All of the above are solid options, but I think I take the safe bet and get the known commodity in Kemp. With acquiring Kemp we could roll into 2010 with this outfield:

LF-Kemp
RF-Bruce
CF-Dickerson/Taveres/Stubbs

Rotation
1)Cueto
2)Volquez
3)Owings
4)Arroyo-we wont be able to unload!!!!
5)Bailey

Benihana
07-07-2009, 11:37 AM
All of the above are solid options, but I think I take the safe bet and get the known commodity in Kemp. With acquiring Kemp we could roll into 2010 with this outfield:

LF-Kemp
RF-Bruce
CF-Dickerson/Taveres/Stubbs

Rotation
1)Cueto
2)Volquez
3)Owings
4)Arroyo-we wont be able to unload!!!!
5)Bailey

No offense, but I don't think any team can expect to compete with Owings as their #3, especially with the modern-day Arroyo as their #4. IMO, the Reds probably need to fetch at least one young starter back in a deal for Harang. If not, they will need to sign someone to occupy that role.

Sea Ray
07-07-2009, 11:40 AM
I'm not sure any team on your list would be willing to give up the players you list. I wish they would

flyer85
07-07-2009, 11:44 AM
I can't see anyone other than possibly the Dodgers who would be willing to do a deal like that.

bucksfan2
07-07-2009, 11:49 AM
No offense, but I don't think any team can expect to compete with Owings as their #3, especially with the modern-day Arroyo as their #4. IMO, the Reds probably need to fetch at least one young starter back in a deal for Harang. If not, they will need to sign someone to occupy that role.

Not so. If you want to put numbers on starters then that is fine. IMO if Bailey continues to develop then Owings wouldn't be the #3 starter, rather a 4 or 5. We are also assuming that Arroyo continues to stink and doesn't bounce back, which he has done every year he is a Red.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 11:55 AM
Not so. If you want to put numbers on starters then that is fine. IMO if Bailey continues to develop then Owings wouldn't be the #3 starter, rather a 4 or 5. We are also assuming that Arroyo continues to stink and doesn't bounce back, which he has done every year he is a Red.

Trust me, I hope you're right. I just think it's pretty risky to take Harang out of the equation, replace him with nothing, and expect to contend for a WS title next year. I really hope that Bailey continues to develop and progress, but relying on him to be your #3 guy next year (especially in a potential playoff series) is quite the risky proposition, especially at this stage in the game.

The Reds got very lucky last year when they relied on two rookies to be mid-rotation guys, and even with a guy like Dunn powering the offense the rookies' success still didn't get them to the playoffs (let alone through it.) Usually that reliance on young, unproven arms to be stalwarts in the rotation doesn't work out and can explode in your face, and I would cite 2000-2007 as evidence: Remember when Jose Acevedo was supposed to be the #2?

Benihana
07-07-2009, 11:56 AM
I'm not sure any team on your list would be willing to give up the players you list. I wish they would

I can't see anyone other than possibly the Dodgers who would be willing to do a deal like that.

If they aren't, then I'm not trading Harang. That's all there is to it.

acredsfan
07-07-2009, 12:01 PM
I'm not even thinking of dealing anyone until we are 5 games out, especially since we are thin enough with starters. Volquez is on the DL, I can't see how they will keep Arroyo active if his trend continues, and Cueto is sketchy just because he had back trouble in his last start and bombed yesterday. The Reds are still in contention in a very weak division, I don't see why you would give up your shot at the playoffs even if it is only around 10%.

People always want to say baseball is a business and you have to build for the future, but business is always about money. Most business people will take a shot at more money now, rather than the chance of money later. If we sell out better players and throw in the towel, revenues at the park are going to fall along with giving up your shot at hosting some post season games, which would be a big boost to the wallets of the owners. Lets face it, more revenue this year means more money next year.

You can argue all you want that we are better set up for a run in the future, but that depends on a TON of variables. Health, consistent perfromance from prospects translating to the bigs, and many other things that you just can't guarantee over a long period of time. As long as we have the slightest chance this year you have to ride this for all it's worth. A shot at this season also means you have to have a veteran who can eat innings and give you a better shot at winning than Maloney, Owings, and Arroyo, and guess who that is. Aaron Harang is vital to this ownership group's chance at making more money.

This isn't to say that if the right deal came along that would fill the void left by Harang he shouldn't be traded, but that is very unlikely. Consider the fact that even if you got a bat like Kemp, you would more than likely be replacing Harang's sub 4 ERA with someone like Maloney's 6+ ERA. That makes almost a 2.5 run differential that even with the one extra bat in the lineup, it would be impossible to overcome every 5th day. Lets also remember that Harang will probably be no problem to trade after the deadline because teams are cautious to pick up his salary, so we would probably hold more bargaining power when the races are more definitive and someone needs a very effective starter.

Sorry for rambling on, but I'm just presenting a realistic counter argument besides I don't want to trade this player because I like him, or trade this player because he sucks right now.

Kc61
07-07-2009, 12:04 PM
The Reds might as well trade Harang. A few years ago, they signed Harang and Arroyo, it was unanimous on RedsZone -- even for those who had issues with these deals -- that the Reds finally had a couple of bona fide major league starters which could yield more success.

Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly and cautiously moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and there will be another period of optimism based on a new round of a few good players and some prospects in Carolina or Dayton.

They did have two major assets in this period, Dunn and Griffey who earned meaningful dollars. The Reds held them until they had little value, got a decent return, but failed to redeploy the cost savings of eliminating these contracts into acquisitions of new proven talent.

The same will happen with the next round of "good, solid pitchers" and a couple of good hitters like Votto. It's a never ending cycle unless at some point you make the bold moves to add high level talent and try to win.

bucksfan2
07-07-2009, 12:12 PM
Trust me, I hope you're right. I just think it's pretty risky to take Harang out of the equation, replace him with nothing, and expect to contend for a WS title next year. I really hope that Bailey continues to develop and progress, but relying on him to be your #3 guy next year (especially in a potential playoff series) is quite the risky proposition, especially at this stage in the game.

The Reds got very lucky last year when they relied on two rookies to be mid-rotation guys, and even with a guy like Dunn powering the offense the rookies' success still didn't get them to the playoffs (let alone through it.) Usually that reliance on young, unproven arms to be stalwarts in the rotation doesn't work out and can explode in your face, and I would cite 2000-2007 as evidence: Remember when Jose Acevedo was supposed to be the #2?

It really depends on the situation and time line. Last years rotation the Reds inserted two young guns into the rotation and it paid off for them. Volquez was very good last year and Cueto took his lumps but showed glimpses of dominance. The Reds need to do the same thing with Bailey. Give him an entire year to start and work out the kinks. Learn how to become more pitch conservative, pitch deeper into games, and get major league hitters out. Let him develop the same way the Reds let Cueto and Volquez develop last season. IMO right now Cueto and Volquez aren't unproven arms, just listen to what outsiders say about them.

From the looks of it the Reds depth is in pitching. I like Harang but if you can move him in order to fill another hole then I am all for it. But at the same time if they would make a move for a bat in order to contend this season I would be all for it.

Reds4Life
07-07-2009, 12:15 PM
The Reds might as well trade Harang. A few years ago, they signed Harang and Arroyo, it was unanimous on RedsZone -- even for those who had issues with these deals -- that the Reds finally had a couple of bona fide major league starters which could yield more success.

Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and there will be another period of optimism based on a new round of a few good players and some prospects in Carolina or Dayton.

They did have two major assets in this period, Dunn and Griffey who earned meaningful dollars. The Reds held them until they had little value, got a decent return, but failed to redeploy the cost savings of eliminating these contracts into acquisitions of new proven talent.

The same will happen with the next round of "good, solid pitchers" and a couple of good hitters like Votto. It's a never ending cycle unless at some point you make the bold moves to add high level talent and try to win.

Agree with this. You also have to ask, how long will the Reds have the benefit of playing in the weakest division in the National League? You put the Reds into another division, and the season is already over. The NL Central is the easiest division to win, yet the Reds have still failed to do so. Everyone predicted this team would be low on offense, and the front office did nothing in the offseason to remedy that.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 12:17 PM
Agree with this. You also have to ask, how long will the Reds have the benefit of playing in the weakest division in the National League? You put the Reds into another division, and the season is already over. The NL Central is the easiest division to win, yet the Reds have still failed to do so. Everyone predicted this team would be low on offense, and the front office did nothing in the offseason to remedy that.

Maybe their goal isn't to win the division because it is weak. Maybe their goal is to win the division (and more) because they are strong.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 12:19 PM
The Reds might as well trade Harang. A few years ago, they signed Harang and Arroyo, it was unanimous on RedsZone -- even for those who had issues with these deals -- that the Reds finally had a couple of bona fide major league starters which could yield more success.

Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly and cautiously moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and there will be another period of optimism based on a new round of a few good players and some prospects in Carolina or Dayton.

They did have two major assets in this period, Dunn and Griffey who earned meaningful dollars. The Reds held them until they had little value, got a decent return, but failed to redeploy the cost savings of eliminating these contracts into acquisitions of new proven talent.

The same will happen with the next round of "good, solid pitchers" and a couple of good hitters like Votto. It's a never ending cycle unless at some point you make the bold moves to add high level talent and try to win.

Agreed, this is why I advocated a tear down approach a few years ago in order to acquire more young talent to put around guys like Votto, Bailey, Bruce and Cueto. Then, when these guys are ready for prime-time, you can add expensive talent because you don't have guys like Arroyo clogging up your books.

acredsfan
07-07-2009, 12:21 PM
Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and it will be rebuilding again.



So is it the pitcher's fault they lost or the lack of offense? I don't see the point in trading pitching because they lost when it is the pitching that is keeping them around .500. Harang is under control through next year with an option for 2011 so I'd wait and see what kind of team Jocketty can build over the winter if nothing else.

Also, any perspective team that wants to take on Aaron also had to take into consideration that his salary for his 2011 option year would jump from 12.75 M to 14M if he is traded and the buyout would increase from 2M to 2.5M. The option would also turn into a mutual option.

Also, with the bold moves for high level talent you are talking about, are you advocating that we turn into the Marlins or Diamondbacks? You can trade away the farm for high level talent, but in 2 years after that one shot you take you are back to where we have been for the past decade. You can't keep a fan base in tact just making a run at it every 5-10 years. St. Louis is a good example of a team that took a less than ideal payroll, similar to the Reds in the past and built a system that wins year after year. We've been in perpetual wait and see what the farm system does mode, and that hasn't worked. We may not have gotten the best return on Dunn and Griffey, but in reality we weren't ever going to get much more for Griffey.

Spitball
07-07-2009, 12:21 PM
If they aren't, then I'm not trading Harang. That's all there is to it.

I agree. Giving up Harang for anything less than an absolutely great return would be very depressing. The Reds need to be swept off their feet with a frantic offer from a team in a deep panic mode and desperately needing starting pitching.

For me, Harang is the one "firesale" acquisition that actually worked, and to give him up at this point would be like taking two steps backward. What good does it do to keep rebuilding if it never works? I keep remembering the Pirates trading John Smiley and his contract for a young, cheap Denny Neagle. Neagle eventually started to develop and started to make too much money so he was traded for a young developing Jason Schmidt. When Schmidt started to follow the same path, he was traded for a young Ryan Vogelsong...and the story unfortunately pretty much ends there.

I know Harang's age and contract are indicators he should be traded. But, I'll take my chances on his age. His delivery and recent conditioning practices are pluses. And, I don't know that shedding a contract results in particularly notable acquisitions from the spare change. With Griffey's and Dunn's off the books, the Reds signed Willy Taveras. Geesh!

Unless a totally sellers market springs up and Harang's services are really in demand, I'd rather see the Reds hold onto him.

Kc61
07-07-2009, 12:22 PM
Maybe their goal isn't to win the division because it is weak. Maybe their goal is to win the division (and more) because they are strong.

Nice words but I still haven't seen the roadmap toward that result. I know the Reds farm system pretty well. If they aren't going to try and win now, what is the formula for winning next year. I don't see it without bold moves.

You don't become a strong baseball team by sitting on your hands and praising the exploits of a few AA kids who may or may not make the majors and, if they do, it could be in a number of years for a different franchise.

It's a shame that the team tantalizes its fans with an occasional Harang or an occasional Votto or Dunn, but then fails year after year to seize the opportunity presented by these good players.

And, by the way, I'd hate to see Harang traded. But if they aren't going to surround him with winning players, they might as well, once again, pass the baton to the next generation.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 12:34 PM
Nice words but I still haven't seen the roadmap toward that result. I know the Reds farm system pretty well. If they aren't going to try and win now, what is the formula for winning next year. I don't see it without bold moves.

You don't become a strong baseball team by sitting on your hands and praising the exploits of a few AA kids who may or may not make the majors and, if they do, it could be in a number of years for a different franchise.

It's a shame that the team tantalizes its fans with an occasional Harang or an occasional Votto or Dunn, but then fails year after year to seize the opportunity presented by these good players.

And, by the way, I'd hate to see Harang traded. But if they aren't going to surround him with winning players, they might as well, once again, pass the baton to the next generation.

Well, this year the big, flashy names that everyone wanted Walt to go all in for were Burrell, Bradley, Abreu, Furcal, etc. People wanted to trade Dye for Bailey. Last year, it was Bruce for Bedard. I would have to say that there would be some very upset people if these deals were made.

The Reds team, as it stands, needs some help. So Bob could empty the coffers and run payroll up to $100MM, or he can sit back, let the youngsters develop and then spend some money when the time is right. The current time isn't right, IMO. That was one of my biggest issues with Wayne. He just wanted to sign guys without thinking ahead. Cordero, in a vacuum, helps this franchise. Add in the timing and contract specifics and it made less sense. Arroyo had a good year and Wayne needed to lock him up, even though he had 2 years left on his current deal. So he paid him for the 2006 stats and we are now getting Milton returns. Awesome.

Stay cheap, spend your savings on the farm and then, when your youngsters are ready to go to the next level, you spend money on the vets. I hope this is what Walt is doing.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 12:38 PM
Well, this year the big, flashy names that everyone wanted Walt to go all in for were Burrell, Bradley, Abreu, Furcal, etc. People wanted to trade Dye for Bailey. Last year, it was Bruce for Bedard. I would have to say that there would be some very upset people if these deals were made.
The Reds team, as it stands, needs some help. So Bob could empty the coffers and run payroll up to $100MM, or he can sit back, let the youngsters develop and then spend some money when the time is right. The current time isn't right, IMO. That was one of my biggest issues with Wayne. He just wanted to sign guys without thinking ahead. Cordero, in a vacuum, helps this franchise. Add in the timing and contract specifics and it made less sense. Arroyo had a good year and Wayne needed to lock him up, even though he had 2 years left on his current deal. So he paid him for the 2006 stats and we are now getting Milton returns. Awesome.

Stay cheap, spend your savings on the farm and then, when your youngsters are ready to go to the next level, you spend money on the vets. I hope this is what Walt is doing.


In retrospect, this deal was probably closer to a fair deal than most would like to admit, particularly if the window to compete was 09-10. Sure, now it's water under the bridge, and that contention window has slammed shut resoundingly, but that was probably a value-for-value deal for a team wanting to put it together pitching-wise.

camisadelgolf
07-07-2009, 12:41 PM
Wow, I can't believe I'm the only one to pick the Yankees. I thought it was easily the best option of those listed.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 12:43 PM
The Reds might as well trade Harang. A few years ago, they signed Harang and Arroyo, it was unanimous on RedsZone -- even for those who had issues with these deals -- that the Reds finally had a couple of bona fide major league starters which could yield more success.

Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly and cautiously moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and there will be another period of optimism based on a new round of a few good players and some prospects in Carolina or Dayton.

They did have two major assets in this period, Dunn and Griffey who earned meaningful dollars. The Reds held them until they had little value, got a decent return, but failed to redeploy the cost savings of eliminating these contracts into acquisitions of new proven talent.

The same will happen with the next round of "good, solid pitchers" and a couple of good hitters like Votto. It's a never ending cycle unless at some point you make the bold moves to add high level talent and try to win.

I agree, but I personally feel the time to make the "bold moves to add high level talent" is the offseason when everyone on RZ knew the Reds needed more offense. It's too late now, I'm afraid...

Kc61
07-07-2009, 12:43 PM
Stay cheap, spend your savings on the farm and then, when your youngsters are ready to go to the next level, you spend money on the vets. I hope this is what Walt is doing.

I think this is a recipe for failure.

There is never a static point when the "youngsters are ready." They develop at different paces. They are of different age groups and experience levels.

And when some are "ready" others are free agents, or injured, or having down seasons, or are not ready. Or don't play the vacant positions.

There is no perfect storm. The team makes its own success. It picks its own moment.

But for some teams, that moment is always in the distant future. So their fans suffer.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 12:44 PM
In retrospect, this deal was probably closer to a fair deal than most would like to admit, particularly if the window to compete was 09-10. Sure, now it's water under the bridge, and that contention window has slammed shut resoundingly, but that was probably a value-for-value deal for a team wanting to put it together pitching-wise.

Except Bedard had "INJURY RISK" stamped on his forehead and has not disappointed. Giving up the #1 prospect in baseball for a guy who can't stay healthy isn't a fair deal, IMO.

OnBaseMachine
07-07-2009, 12:47 PM
Except Bedard had "INJURY RISK" stamped on his forehead and has not disappointed. Giving up the #1 prospect in baseball for a guy who can't stay healthy isn't a fair deal, IMO.

I agree 100%.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 12:50 PM
Except Bedard had "INJURY RISK" stamped on his forehead and has not disappointed. Giving up the #1 prospect in baseball for a guy who can't stay healthy isn't a fair deal, IMO.

Prospect is the key word there. I don't think most Mariners' fans want back what they traded for Bedard at this time. If they do, they don't realize the importance of starting pitching or they fail to understand the tentativeness of contention.

Remember when Shapiro in Cleveland had the universe figured out, guaranteeing the Indians contention till the crack of doom? Now he's got some decent prospects, but that row was a ton harder to hoe than he probably expected.

No one builds an empire without a limitless ceiling of cash. Some win battles, but mostly it's just shooting arrows through ax-heads for the little/medium sized guys. Take your shot when you get it.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 12:51 PM
Brewers wouldn't either. Escobar is "untouchable", or so they say.

The Brewers probably don't have the young talent to acquire an available pitcher unless they include Escobar or Gamel IMO...

TheNext44
07-07-2009, 12:51 PM
Wow, I can't believe I'm the only one to pick the Yankees. I thought it was easily the best option of those listed.

I think people see Hughes, and pass before they see Montero. Montero for Harang would be almost a fair trade. He's one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, a mammoth bat that might be able to catch, but could justify 1B if not. He might be the best player on that whole list.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 12:53 PM
Prospect is the key word there. I don't think most Mariners' fans want back what they traded for Bedard at this time. If they do, they don't realize the importance of starting pitching or they fail to understand the tentativeness of contention.

The mistake the Mariners made wasn't trading the wrong players, it was the misconception that they were going to be in contention...

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 12:54 PM
The Brewers probably don't have the young talent to acquire an available pitcher unless they include Escobar or Gamel IMO...

Which is likely going to be the reason they are unable to acquire one, as they have said that neither one of them is available.

If I were them, I'd be selling Gamel hard to an AL team for some pitching. I'm not sure what else it would take to get Holliday, but I'm sure it'd be a bunch more.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 12:54 PM
I think people see Hughes, and pass before they see Montero. Montero for Harang would be almost a fair trade. He's one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, a mammoth bat that might be able to catch, but could justify 1B if not. He might be the best player on that whole list.

The problem with Montero, of course, is that if he plays 1B that position is already occupied...

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 12:55 PM
Which is likely going to be the reason they are unable to acquire one, as they have said that neither one of them is available.

If I were them, I'd be selling Gamel hard to an AL team for some pitching. I'm not sure what else it would take to get Holliday, but I'm sure it'd be a bunch more.

I'd take Gamel and Parra back for Harang too...

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 12:55 PM
Wow, I can't believe I'm the only one to pick the Yankees. I thought it was easily the best option of those listed.

I think a lot of people assessed reality when they chose their options.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 12:55 PM
I think people see Hughes, and pass before they see Montero. Montero for Harang would be almost a fair trade. He's one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, a mammoth bat that might be able to catch, but could justify 1B if not. He might be the best player on that whole list.

While I like Montero, I have to disagree that he alone would come close to almost being a fair trade for Harang. We already have two great young players at 1B in Votto and Alonso. I'd be interested in making this trade only if Montero could stay at catcher (which he probably cannot) or possibly convert to 3B, or to a lesser extent, the OF. If he could, it becomes a very interesting trade- especially when you add Hughes to the mix of Cueto/Volquez/Bailey etc.

I agree that many Reds fans are skeptical of Yankees prospects after the Neagle & Boone trades though.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 12:58 PM
I think this is a recipe for failure.

There is never a static point when the "youngsters are ready." They develop at different paces. They are of different age groups and experience levels.

And when some are "ready" others are free agents, or injured, or having down seasons, or are not ready.

There is no perfect storm. The team makes its own success. It picks its own moment.

But for some teams, that moment is always in the distant future. So their fans suffer.

And many of the FAs that everyone was salivating over have, for lack of a better term, crapped the bed in 2009. So I wonder how Walt would have been viewed if he dropped $30MM on Bradley or went overboard and outbid TB for Burrell. I'm glad Walt didn't pick this moment.

Maybe Walt made the determination that this team wouldn't be able to compete this year based upon the current roster and demands of ther available FAs. Whatever the reason was, I'm glad he held off on last year's crop. And watching what is going on with some of the key stakeholders of this year's success (Arroyo, Volquez, Bruce, Votto), everyone should be glad that Walt didn't run payroll through the roof this year, since it might have been hard to recover from a disatser like that would have been.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 12:59 PM
The mistake the Mariners made wasn't trading the wrong players, it was the misconception that they were going to be in contention...

But they are now. They actually *have* the pitching that Reds' fans thought this team had.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:00 PM
I'd take Gamel and Parra back for Harang too...

That would be a mistake of incalculable proportion.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 01:00 PM
Prospect is the key word there. I don't think most Mariners' fans want back what they traded for Bedard at this time. If they do, they don't realize the importance of starting pitching or they fail to understand the tentativeness of contention.

I guarantee any Seattle fan worth their salt would redo that trade in a heartbeat. Bedard will be nowhere near this team when they are finally (if ever) in contention. Those guys have a much better shot.

TheNext44
07-07-2009, 01:01 PM
The problem with Montero, of course, is that if he plays 1B that position is already occupied...

Agreed.

A moot point anyway, since I believe that Montero is not available, at least not for Harang.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 01:02 PM
I'd take Gamel and Parra back for Harang too...

Gamel's got a great stick, I agree, but he is so incredibly terrible in the field that I think his future has to be in the AL. He's done somewhat decent in a small sample size with the Brewers in the glove, but he honestly looks like a girl when he throws.

I'm not sure where I stand on Parra. I feel like his stuff isn't what it used to be. He may need a change of scenery, but I wouldn't want to have to count on a huge question mark like that in my rotation.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:03 PM
I guarantee any Seattle fan worth their salt would redo that trade in a heartbeat. Bedard will be nowhere near this team when they are finally (if ever) in contention. Those guys have a much better shot.

The Mariners actually *are* contending.

Highlifeman21
07-07-2009, 01:04 PM
The best trade for the Reds is the one to the Brewers.

I'm not sure how good that trade is for the Brewers though.

Sir yes sir.

The Brewers would never give up those 2 for just Harang, and I can't imagine the Brewers making a big trade to a division rival anyway.

My only hope is there's some truth to the Kemp rumor.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:05 PM
But they are now. They actually *have* the pitching that Reds' fans thought this team had.

I really don't think they are. And two years of Bedard while the team is out of the race is a complete waste of resources...

OnBaseMachine
07-07-2009, 01:06 PM
The Reds do have the pitching the fans thought we had. I'm not going to let a couple bad games outweigh the whole season. Others can, but I'm not. Despite our best starter being out for two months, our pitching has been fine. A lot of teams would kill to have Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and even a highly touted prospect like Homer Bailey.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:07 PM
The Mariners actually *are* contending.

They are contending about as much as the Reds were two days ago...

Highlifeman21
07-07-2009, 01:08 PM
Wow, I can't believe I'm the only one to pick the Yankees. I thought it was easily the best option of those listed.

I thought about it, but it seems Hughes is a dish best served as a 7th or 8th inning guy for the Yankees, and has enjoyed some success doing so.

I'm not convinced his body can hold up to being a starting pitcher.

If that were the case, then I'd love to have Hughes be our #2 or #3 SP.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:08 PM
Gamel's got a great stick, I agree, but he is so incredibly terrible in the field that I think his future has to be in the AL. He's done somewhat decent in a small sample size with the Brewers in the glove, but he honestly looks like a girl when he throws.

I'm not sure where I stand on Parra. I feel like his stuff isn't what it used to be. He may need a change of scenery, but I wouldn't want to have to count on a huge question mark like that in my rotation.

If Gamel at 3B doesn't work out, what about him playing LF for the Reds? Parra is just a throw-in anyways...

fearofpopvol1
07-07-2009, 01:09 PM
Prospect is the key word there. I don't think most Mariners' fans want back what they traded for Bedard at this time. If they do, they don't realize the importance of starting pitching or they fail to understand the tentativeness of contention.

Remember when Shapiro in Cleveland had the universe figured out, guaranteeing the Indians contention till the crack of doom? Now he's got some decent prospects, but that row was a ton harder to hoe than he probably expected.

No one builds an empire without a limitless ceiling of cash. Some win battles, but mostly it's just shooting arrows through ax-heads for the little/medium sized guys. Take your shot when you get it.

I disagree completely. The return the O's got for Bedard was ridiculously good. Have you seen the stats for those players?

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:10 PM
I disagree completely. The return the O's got for Bedard was ridiculously good. Have you seen the stats for those players?

It's already been an even swap, and that ignores the years of control the O's still have on those players and the Bedard $...

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 01:14 PM
The Mariners actually *are* contending.

Same games out as Cincy.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:15 PM
Same games out as Cincy.

Outscored by their opponents too...

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 01:16 PM
And, for the record, I picked the Kemp deal since he is the guy who has had success at the major league level.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:16 PM
Same games out as Cincy.

Mariners are three and a half out with a bullet. Reds? No.

Scrap Irony
07-07-2009, 01:16 PM
I'd take any of the four deals for Harang straight up. Hughes, Happ, and Parra could all be BOR starters with plus stuff and the offensive punch would help as well. Not to mention getting seriouly cheaper both now and next season, thereby allowing Jocketty a chance to grab either another starter (unlikely) or a young CF/LF/SS/ whatever.

edabbs44
07-07-2009, 01:21 PM
Mariners are three and a half out with a bullet. Reds? No.

Over their last 10 games, Seattle is 6-4. Cincy is 5-5.

Seattle won't be there in September.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:22 PM
Mariners are three and a half out with a bullet. Reds? No.

What's their bullet? An offense weaker than the Reds?

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:25 PM
What's their bullet? An offense weaker than the Reds?

Best pitching staff in a league is always in contention. Always. No matter what.

And I don't see where their pitching is going to fall off either. The peripherals suggest that they really are quite good, not lucky.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:26 PM
Best pitching staff in a league is always in contention. Always. No matter what.

Wanna put your avatar/sig where your mouth is?

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:27 PM
Wanna put your avatar/sig where your mouth is?

Define the paramaters.

*BaseClogger*
07-07-2009, 01:28 PM
Define the paramaters.

The Seattle Mariners will be more than 5 games behind the leader of the AL West at the conclusion of the 2009 season...

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:33 PM
The Seattle Mariners will be more than 5 games behind the leader of the AL West at the conclusion of the 2009 season...

Deal.

Will M
07-07-2009, 01:38 PM
Harang is a workhorse starter with an ERA+ of 115. Any contending team would love to add him. He is also signed through 2010 with an option for 2011.

You can't just deal him for some run of the mill minor leaguers.
Lets play a game. Pretend the Reds were actually real contenders and needed a SP like Harang from another team. What talent from our system would you give up? I would think two 'A' prospects and 1-2 'B' prospects.
Something like:
1. Frazier or Alonso
2. Stubbs or Heissey
3. Roenicke or Fisher
4. 2nd minor prospect

that is the type of return I would want.

jojo
07-07-2009, 01:47 PM
The Bluejays easily had the best ERA in the AL in 2008 and they finished 9 games out of the wildcard.

BRM
07-07-2009, 01:55 PM
The Bluejays easily had the best ERA in the AL in 2008 and they finished 9 games out of the wildcard.

They would have only been a couple games back had they played in the AL Central. Just sayin'.

Falls City Beer
07-07-2009, 01:57 PM
The Bluejays easily had the best ERA in the AL in 2008 and they finished 9 games out of the wildcard.

But they were in it for a long time. No one's going to confuse the AL West with the AL East either.

I'd call any season that ends 86-76 a contending one.

jojo
07-07-2009, 01:58 PM
They would have only been a couple games back had they played in the AL Central. Just sayin'.

They would've been 14 games back had they played in the AL West.... :cool:

jojo
07-07-2009, 02:02 PM
But they were in it for a long time. No one's going to confuse the AL West with the AL East either.

I'd call any season that ends 86-76 a contending one.

On August 29th they were 14.5 games back. It took a 10 game winning streak immediately thereafter for them to reach their high water mark of 8.5 games back.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 02:36 PM
The Phillies would never give up that package in return.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/How_much_is_too_much_for_Halladay.html

Well, considering the Phillies' beat writer proposes a package of Happ, Taylor, another prospect and Kyle Drabek (their top prospect) for Halladay, I think it's safe to say they'd definitely consider a Happ/Taylor for Harang type deal, especially if they miss out on Halladay.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 02:47 PM
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/How_much_is_too_much_for_Halladay.html

Well, considering the Phillies' beat writer proposes a package of Happ, Taylor, another prospect and Kyle Drabek (their top prospect) for Halladay, I think it's safe to say they'd definitely consider a Happ/Taylor for Harang type deal, especially if they miss out on Halladay.

With all due respect, I don't think it's safe to say that at all. It's one beat writers opinion. He's not a member of their front office. Halladay and Harang are two very different pitchers. Halladay is a former Cy Young winner, who is still obviously at the top of his game and one of the best in the entire league. The post-Dusty Harang has been pretty pedestrian, and likely would not field a huge return such as Happ and Taylor.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 02:51 PM
With all due respect, I don't think it's safe to say that at all. It's one beat writers opinion. He's not a member of their front office. Halladay and Harang are two very different pitchers. Halladay is a former Cy Young winner, who is still obviously at the top of his game and one of the best in the entire league. The post-Dusty Harang has been pretty pedestrian, and likely would not field a huge return such as Happ and Taylor.

I realize it's one beat writer's opinion. Until somebody on this board gets a direct line to Ruben Amaro's office, it's one (relatively informed) Philadelphia opinion to weigh, taken of course with a grain of salt. Obviously Halladay > Harang, but a package of Happ, Taylor, unnamed prospect and Kyle Drabek > Happ and Taylor. As far as your suggestion that Harang is pretty pedestrian, there's plenty of evidence on this board that states the opposite.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 02:55 PM
I realize it's one beat writer's opinion. Until somebody on this board gets a direct line to Ruben Amaro's office, it's one (relatively informed) Philadelphia opinion to weigh, taken of course with a grain of salt. Obviously Halladay > Harang, but a package of Happ, Taylor, unnamed prospect and Kyle Drabek > Happ and Taylor. As far as your suggestion that Harang is pretty pedestrian, there's plenty of evidence on this board that states the opposite.

Obviously we won't know exactly what their front office is thinking, but in my opinion, Harang won't command that much of a return.

And Harang's ERA+ of 101 would illustrate that he's right around league average. I do realize I used the word pedestrian, but average may be more accurate. I also realize that average would be a huge upgrade for the Phillies, but I doubt they're going to give up two young studs for a pitcher that is roughly league average.

Johnny Footstool
07-07-2009, 03:12 PM
Agree with this. You also have to ask, how long will the Reds have the benefit of playing in the weakest division in the National League? You put the Reds into another division, and the season is already over. The NL Central is the easiest division to win, yet the Reds have still failed to do so. Everyone predicted this team would be low on offense, and the front office did nothing in the offseason to remedy that.

The NL Central is not the weakest division. The East is much weaker -- only one team with a positive run differential.

OnBaseMachine
07-07-2009, 03:14 PM
Obviously we won't know exactly what their front office is thinking, but in my opinion, Harang won't command that much of a return.

And Harang's ERA+ of 101 would illustrate that he's right around league average. I do realize I used the word pedestrian, but average may be more accurate. I also realize that average would be a huge upgrade for the Phillies, but I doubt they're going to give up two young studs for a pitcher that is roughly league average.

Harang's ERA+ is 115.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 03:17 PM
Harang's ERA+ is 115.

My original post was referring to Harang's ERA+ of 101 for the Dusty era.

RedEye
07-07-2009, 05:20 PM
That Brewers trade is awfully tempting. I was torn between Kemp and Escobar/Parra. In the end I chose the one that I thought gave the Reds the most elite talent. IMO, Escobar and Parra are both nice players, but Kemp projects as a premium performer at a premium position, so I chose the Dodgers option.

I don't really think either deal will happen though. Especially not if Halladay is available--he immediately becomes option numero uno.

missionhockey21
07-07-2009, 05:38 PM
My original post was referring to Harang's ERA+ of 101 for the Dusty era.

2008 sure was normal Aaron Harang. We can expect that from him every season. Yep.

Homer Bailey
07-07-2009, 05:57 PM
2008 sure was normal Aaron Harang. We can expect that from him every season. Yep.

His numbers aren't trending the right way. That hurts his trade value.

Or you could turn my words around to make them sound like yours.

Scrap Irony
07-07-2009, 06:00 PM
Didn't someone post last week how Harang's periphials are almost as good as they were in 2006-07?