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View Full Version : Blue Jays are also taking offers for outfielder Alex Rios & third baseman Scott Rolen



redsfan4445
07-08-2009, 07:15 PM
per mlb traderumors:

"Along with ace Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays are also taking offers for outfielder Alex Rios and third baseman Scott Rolen. They both carry hefty contracts, however, so deals could be tricky."


Can you see Rolen playing 3rd?? I wish he was 5 years younger sigh!!

WVRed
07-08-2009, 08:13 PM
Rolen has been past his prime for awhile now.

guttle11
07-08-2009, 08:35 PM
Rolen has been past his prime for awhile now.

He's still good, and probably still has another 2-3 quality years. I'd take him if the price was right.

flyer85
07-08-2009, 08:38 PM
I bet they are

Spitball
07-08-2009, 08:59 PM
He's still good, and probably still has another 2-3 quality years. I'd take him if the price was right.

He makes over $11 million per year, and you can bet they are wanting to dump a hefty part of that salary.

Will M
07-08-2009, 09:24 PM
Now is the time for Bob C to put up or shut up (about the 'win now').

The Reds could conceivably get Halladay, Rios & Rolen in one fell swoop. How? Simply by taking the big contracts of Rolen (OPS+ 128) and Rios (having an off year, hoping a change of scenery will help).

Halladay by himself would cost a King's ransom. But by taking on the big contracts (especially Rios's contract) the cost goes down.

Benihana
07-08-2009, 09:39 PM
Now is the time for Bob C to put up or shut up (about the 'win now').

The Reds could conceivably get Halladay, Rios & Rolen in one fell swoop. How? Simply by taking the big contracts of Rolen (OPS+ 128) and Rios (having an off year, hoping a change of scenery will help).

Halladay by himself would cost a King's ransom. But by taking on the big contracts (especially Rios's contract) the cost goes down.

Don't hold your breath

nate
07-08-2009, 09:44 PM
Just heard a rumor that I posted in tonight's GT. The Reds get Rolen, the Jays get EE and a minor leaguer.

Just a rumor, don't know how credible.

CarolinaRedleg
07-08-2009, 09:54 PM
I'm intrigued. Rolen hitting between Votto and Bruce opens up more than a few possibilities.

Patrick Bateman
07-08-2009, 10:17 PM
Now is the time for Bob C to put up or shut up (about the 'win now').

The Reds could conceivably get Halladay, Rios & Rolen in one fell swoop. How? Simply by taking the big contracts of Rolen (OPS+ 128) and Rios (having an off year, hoping a change of scenery will help).

Halladay by himself would cost a King's ransom. But by taking on the big contracts (especially Rios's contract) the cost goes down.

This is just patently wrong. Scott Rolen is currently OPSing .867 with GG defense. He can be moved for plenty of value.

Rios is somewhat arguable, but I'd reckon that there would be more than a few teams willing to give up something of pretty high value for him. It wasn't that long ago that he was bandied about being dealt straight up for Lincecum or Cain, and he hasn't been that bad to fall that far to decreasing Halladay's value.

Halladay will only be moved if the Jays are going to get a real haul for him. Guys like that don't get traded to dump salary, they get moved to alter the franchise. If you want those 3 players, prepare to suffer through a really really bad farm system, and a bunch of slary dumps at the ML level to make it happen.

wally post
07-08-2009, 10:28 PM
I love the idea of Rolen, but not at his age and lack of power, especially for EE + anything more. I realize EE drives me (and many of us, here) crazy - but is his value so low that this is the best he can bring in? If they were including a minors player back to us, instead of us adding on, then ... I might be able to handle this trade.
Yes we need help - but what if rolen's age catches up with him? We have this awful contract that is untradeable. So.. I vote "no" for EE unless THEY give us something back.

Will M
07-08-2009, 10:57 PM
This is just patently wrong. Scott Rolen is currently OPSing .867 with GG defense. He can be moved for plenty of value.

Rios is somewhat arguable, but I'd reckon that there would be more than a few teams willing to give up something of pretty high value for him. It wasn't that long ago that he was bandied about being dealt straight up for Lincecum or Cain, and he hasn't been that bad to fall that far to decreasing Halladay's value.

Halladay will only be moved if the Jays are going to get a real haul for him. Guys like that don't get traded to dump salary, they get moved to alter the franchise. If you want those 3 players, prepare to suffer through a really really bad farm system, and a bunch of slary dumps at the ML level to make it happen.


Rolen likely has value despite his contract. However he is owed $15M for 2010.

Rios is owed $69M from 2010 through 2014. He is OPS+ing ~92. With that massive contract he has negative trade value.

redsfan4445
07-08-2009, 11:34 PM
Rolen has a 25 game hitting streak right now.. hmm so thats a rumour? Edwin and a minor leauger for Rolen? maybe they could expand it to get Rios..hmmmm

Degenerate39
07-09-2009, 12:20 AM
Rolen has a 25 game hitting streak right now.. hmm so thats a rumour? Edwin and a minor leauger for Rolen? maybe they could expand it to get Rios..hmmmm

The Jays would have to pay most of Rios salary if the Reds went after him.

Patrick Bateman
07-09-2009, 01:40 AM
Rios is owed $69M from 2010 through 2014. He is OPS+ing ~92. With that massive contract he has negative trade value.

That would be true if he had no track record to fall back on, and if he were 33.

However, he does, and he isn't.

Will M
07-09-2009, 01:45 AM
That would be true if he had no track record to fall back on, and if he were 33.

However, he does, and he isn't.

I have to disagree with you here. I think that no team will give up value for Rios with that contract.

Patrick Bateman
07-09-2009, 01:49 AM
I have to disagree with you here. I think that no team will give up value for Rios with that contract.

You really don't think there's one team that prefer to hang their hat on his previous seasons as an above average bat + elite defender, rather than a half season of struggles?

*BaseClogger*
07-09-2009, 01:52 AM
I think there are plenty of teams that wish they had Rios for that contract...

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 06:03 AM
I don't. The only team I can think of that needs a guy like Rios, considering his baggage (YouTube video with he and the kid, salary, et al.) and can afford him is the Giants. Is there anyone I'm missing?

mth123
07-09-2009, 06:35 AM
I don't. The only team I can think of that needs a guy like Rios, considering his baggage (YouTube video with he and the kid, salary, et al.) and can afford him is the Giants. Is there anyone I'm missing?

I think the Mets would be interested.

Eric_the_Red
07-09-2009, 09:01 AM
In the last ten seasons starting 1999 Rolen has managed to play in 140 or more games only 5 times, including 4 seasons of less than 120 games. He is 34 years old with a history of injury problems. And he is set to make $12 mil in 2010.
No thanks.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 09:10 AM
The Jays would have to pay most of Rios salary if the Reds went after him.

In that case, I would give up a fair amount for him.

But the Jays won't do that- especially if they are trading Halladay. They already ate Ryan's contract. A big part of the logic behind moving Rios is to free up money to possibly sign Halladay. I'm pretty sure they're not going to take down a lot of Rios' contract if they end up moving him.

bucksfan2
07-09-2009, 09:30 AM
In the last ten seasons starting 1999 Rolen has managed to play in 140 or more games only 5 times, including 4 seasons of less than 120 games. He is 34 years old with a history of injury problems. And he is set to make $12 mil in 2010.
No thanks.

Since Edwin has been handed the full time starting job he will play over 140 games just once, last year.

I do Edwin + prospect for Rolen. I have given up on Edwin. I don't think his glove will ever play at 3b and don't think his bat will play to many projections. He is frustrating to watch and IMO is very inconsistent at the plate. For a team that needs a RH bat to produce, Edwin isn't doing the job. An addition of Rolen would sure of the defense and make the lineup better this year. IMO 130 games of Rolen > than whatever Edwin can give you.

edabbs44
07-09-2009, 09:35 AM
Rolen would be a good move dependent upon $$$ and prospects. But in a vacuum he makes the 2009 team better.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 09:39 AM
I love Rolen. Absolutely hate Alex Rios. I've stated many times that I want no part of Alex Rios for $60+ million.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 10:33 AM
I think the Mets would be interested.

Yep, Mets, too. Though Ryan Church's OPS+ is better than Rios and his D is almost as good.

Kinda hard to get teams in a bidding war if only to find the player you're dealing valuable enough to bid on at all.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2009, 10:36 AM
I'd be behind the acquisition of Rolen. Have to admit that some of it is sentimental -- he's more or less a hometown guy who grew up rooting for the Reds. Clearly age and health history are significant risks. But I think the potential reward, given how he's playing now, is quite high. He fits right where they need the most help.

osuceltic
07-09-2009, 10:38 AM
It depends on the prospect, of course, but this is a no-brainer. You do it and run before the Jays come to their senses. Is it a risk? I'd say it's minor. Even if he's hurt for the duration of his contract, it's only one more season. And it's not as if Edwin is cheap next season. Or anywhere near the player Rolen is.

If Rolen gives you anything close to 200 Scott Rolen games at third base and in the cleanup spot over the next two seasons, this goes down as an all-time steal. Heck, even if he just gives you enough to push you into the playoffs this season--and he's a good enough player to do that--it's a steal. Regardless of what happens in 2010.

This would be a great move. Which is why I don't believe it will happen. If something seems too good to be true ...

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 10:45 AM
I'd probably get Rolen, if only because I love his glove and baseball IQ. His mind seems like the type to play well in his late 30's. Unfortunaty, his body seems to be the type to struggle soon after 33. Still, a good baseball player and a gamer-- if Cincinnati could find the cash, I'd be fine with it.

edabbs44
07-09-2009, 10:56 AM
Hmmm....Rotoworld doesn't see anything intriguing here, so maybe it is just a day off.


Scott Rolen is out of the lineup for Thursday's game against the Rays.

With the early start time, Rolen takes a seat. Jose Bautista will fill in and lead off against David Price.

nate
07-09-2009, 11:02 AM
Yeah, I don't know how solid a rumor it was. Just something going around during last night's game chat.

15fan
07-09-2009, 11:21 AM
Junior - Rolen - Dunn - Kearns made sense back in the day. A ton of sense.

But that day was looooong ago.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 11:25 AM
Yeah, I don't know how solid a rumor it was. Just something going around during last night's game chat.

About as "solid" as ice cream in the microwave...

Blitz Dorsey
07-09-2009, 11:27 AM
Shocking that the Blue Jays are trying to get rid of the No. 7 hitter in their lineup who has a contract that doesn't match his production.

JP Ricciardi should just stop talking for a while. Take a few plays off. He doesn't need to inform everyone of the obvious. I still think Adam Dunn is going to beat him up at some point. Nah, Adam is too nice a guy.

wolfboy
07-09-2009, 11:44 AM
Shocking that the Blue Jays are trying to get rid of the No. 7 hitter in their lineup who has a contract that doesn't match his production.

JP Ricciardi should just stop talking for a while. Take a few plays off. He doesn't need to inform everyone of the obvious. I still think Adam Dunn is going to beat him up at some point. Nah, Adam is too nice a guy.

"Do you know that Dunn doesn't really like beating people up that much? Do you know the guy doesn't have the passion to beat people up? How much do you know about Dunn?"

PuffyPig
07-09-2009, 11:44 AM
Rolen is an intriging option.

He would bridge the gap to 2011, when presumably one of our minor league thirdbaseman can take over.

I no longer believe that EE is the future at third. He's here only until someone better comes along or his contract runs out at the end of the 2010 season.

As long as the propsect was not elite, and some of Rolen's salary gets paid, this would be a good deal.

Eric_the_Red
07-09-2009, 11:45 AM
Since Edwin has been handed the full time starting job he will play over 140 games just once, last year.

IMO 130 games of Rolen > than whatever Edwin can give you.

So you want to pay more for a guy who misses as many games as EE? If I'm paying $10mil more for a 3B, I want him in the lineup more than EE or Rolen seem to be.

I'm not saying Rolen isn't better than EE when healthy, but I don't think that risk is worth $10mil to find out.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2009, 11:47 AM
The rumor was started by a first-time poster on the Sun Deck, and wasn't corroborated.

In other words, it's a phantom.

bucksfan2
07-09-2009, 12:00 PM
So you want to pay more for a guy who misses as many games as EE? If I'm paying $10mil more for a 3B, I want him in the lineup more than EE or Rolen seem to be.

I'm not saying Rolen isn't better than EE when healthy, but I don't think that risk is worth $10mil to find out.

So far this season Rolen has played in 74 games. His line so far this season is .330/.390/.486. The Reds aren't a game under .500 with that kind of production coming from the 3b spot. Throw in that he is a good defensive 3b and you have an improved team.

As I said above I have given up on Edwin. His footwork in the field just hasn't improved. He hardly every squares himself to the base he is throwing to, hence the large number of off line throws. IMO his swing is too long to be effective over a long period of time and is susceptible to prolonged slumps.

The Reds are fading away from contention as we speak. They can't continue to lose games in which their starting pitchers give quality innings. The need a reliable bat in order to help this team out. IMO trading Edwin for Rolen would make this team better now and also into next season. IMO 130 games of Rolen + whoever else plays is far better than 140+ games of Edwin. Sure it comes at a price, but what is the value of winning?

Highlifeman21
07-09-2009, 01:26 PM
I think there are plenty of teams that wish they had Rios for that contract...

The problem with the Reds is that I envision a scenario where the Rios trade for Rios, and then 2012 or 2013 run him out of town b/c they can't afford him due to other bad contracts.

His contract might be a bad one for the Reds, in the long run.

GOYA
07-09-2009, 01:39 PM
Take it for what you think it's worth but Jim Kelch has reported that Jocketty has been with the Bats for the past couple of days. That in itself doesn't mean anything but if you consider it in light of this rumor, it might make sense that he is deciding which AAA pitcher is going to be dealt.

Or not.

redsfan30
07-09-2009, 01:48 PM
I don't see any way the Blue Jays would make this deal. Unless Cincinnati would be taking on almost all of his contract.

I would love to have Scott Rolen. Love it.

Hoosier Red
07-09-2009, 02:18 PM
I don't see any way the Blue Jays would make this deal. Unless Cincinnati would be taking on almost all of his contract.

I would love to have Scott Rolen. Love it.

And there you have your answer. Scott Rolen is definately $6M better than EE, but it just matters if we can pay it.
A Ferarri is definately worth the $250K more than my beat up car, but I can't pay for it so it's not a wise purchase.

Kc61
07-09-2009, 03:57 PM
If the Reds and Jays are close on the player package and the Reds don't pull the trigger on this deal it's time to give up wasting time on this team.

If they can't afford a major contract that ends in a year and a half, then they are hopeless. And if they think keeping EE over Rolen makes sense, they are also hopeless.

osuceltic
07-09-2009, 04:01 PM
If the Reds and Jays are close on the player package and the Reds don't pull the trigger on this deal it's time to give up wasting time on this team.

If they can't afford a major contract that ends in a year and a half, then they are hopeless. And if they think keeping EE over Rolen makes sense, they are also hopeless.

Absolutely correct.

cincrazy
07-09-2009, 04:05 PM
If the Reds and Jays are close on the player package and the Reds don't pull the trigger on this deal it's time to give up wasting time on this team.

If they can't afford a major contract that ends in a year and a half, then they are hopeless. And if they think keeping EE over Rolen makes sense, they are also hopeless.

I wish Redszone had a "like" button like Facebook, so that I could like this post.

REDSEER
07-09-2009, 04:10 PM
As much as I'm not sure about trying to listen to George Grande drool over Scott Rolen for the rest of this season and next like he did in Toronto, Rolen would provide a good veteran presence and work ethic for the younger players on our team. Looking up and down our roster of position players, I don't really see that veteran that many players can look up to like a Barry Larkin, a Sean Casey, or a Ken Griffey Jr.

Rolen has seen playoff baseball and knows what it takes to get there. I really think that he could be a great presence in the clubhouse for guys like Bruce, Votto, and Phillips.

Not to mention that he is a phenomenal athlete...the guy still holds my high school basketball gym's single-game points record with 50 :eek:

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2009, 04:22 PM
Take it for what you think it's worth but Jim Kelch has reported that Jocketty has been with the Bats for the past couple of days. That in itself doesn't mean anything but if you consider it in light of this rumor, it might make sense that he is deciding which AAA pitcher is going to be dealt.

Or not.

To add fuel to the fire, Kip Wells was signed and placed on the Louisville reserve roster, which indicates that a Louisville pitcher is either getting called up or traded.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 04:28 PM
So, with this in mind, what would be an acceptable deal for Rolen?

EdE, Viola, and Dorn?

I'd have a hard time with that one, I think.

EdE, Sutton, and Stewart?

Same thing.

Anything else Redszone can come up with that's both feasible and acceptable?

TheNext44
07-09-2009, 04:32 PM
So, with this in mind, what would be an acceptable deal for Rolen?

EdE, Viola, and Dorn?

I'd have a hard time with that one, I think.

EdE, Sutton, and Stewart?

Same thing.

Anything else Redszone can come up with that's both feasible and acceptable?

No way Stewart is included in this deal. I am not sure the Reds would trade him straight up for Rolan.

If the Reds have to take on all of Rolan's salary, it most likely will be:

EdE, and one of the Bat's starting pitchers; either LeCure, Ramirez, or Maloney.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2009, 04:33 PM
But, according to doug, there's also a position player leaving Louisville. I'm just hoping it's not Dorn or Heisey.

bucksfan2
07-09-2009, 04:34 PM
To add fuel to the fire, Kip Wells was signed and placed on the Louisville reserve roster, which indicates that a Louisville pitcher is either getting called up or traded.

Rotation fodder? Bailey has been called up to the bigs. Thompson's season is over, correct? I think the uncertain status of Arroyo and Volquez rehab time line made the Reds get another arm in AAA.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2009, 04:34 PM
This deal makes very little sense for Toronto *unless* they are under strict orders to shed payroll, with little consideration for return.

RED VAN HOT
07-09-2009, 04:34 PM
I agree with the points made by the Rolen advocates. If he does nothing but add plus defense and a .265 average, he would improve this club. The experience intangibles are valuable as well. The Reds are a team that has grown accustomed to losing. I really like putting Rolen into a pennant race against his old team.

Rolen was out of the Jays lineup today, so I think a deal must be near. My guess would be EE + Maloney + A level prospect and the Reds eat the salary differential. The only downside is money and that it is not a huge risk. Keep Rolen this year and next. By then one of Frasier, Francisco, or Soto could emerge as the longer term fix.

TheNext44
07-09-2009, 04:37 PM
But, according to doug, there's also a position player leaving Louisville. I'm just hoping it's not Dorn or Heisey.

Sorry, missed that. Thanks for the update. :thumbup:

I still stand by my projection of which pitcher it could be, but have no idea on the position player. It all depends on how much salary is taken on.

REDSEER
07-09-2009, 04:39 PM
At least we know that nothing is finalized yet...

EE in the lineup tonight according to Fay

BearcatShane
07-09-2009, 04:41 PM
I'm not getting my hopes up, but I would LOVE to see this. I will say with Kip Wells being added to the Bats roster, Jocketty in Louisville and Rolen being held out of the lineup today that something just might be up. I'll just sit back and be cautiously optimistic.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 04:53 PM
Call me crazy (and a lot of you will) but I'm not enamored with Scott Rolen. 5 years ago, this would have been great. Now, not so much IMO.

Rolen hasn't OPSed over .800 for a full season since 2006.
EE has OPSed over .800 every season for the last 4 years.

I know Rolen plays much better D, but he's also 34- an age where the D can go downhill real quickly, not to mention his health concerns (he's played more than 115 games 1 time in the last 5 years.)

EE is far from perfect- especially on defense, but he is 8 years younger and makes almost $10MM/year less than Rolen. Maybe I'd consider a straight-up swap, but I wouldn't be excited giving up much more than that.

Not to mention what in the heck does this mean for the team's direction? I assume it means they're going for it all next season, which would entail keeping Harang and any other vets. What other moves would potentially accompany this- would the Reds actually be "buyers"?

If not, it seems like more of the same paradoxical confusion of "contending while rebuilding" or whatever the hell you want to call the past decade.

osuceltic
07-09-2009, 05:09 PM
Not to mention what in the heck does this mean for the team's direction? I assume it means they're going for it all next season, which would entail keeping Harang and any other vets. What other moves would potentially accompany this- would the Reds be "buyers"?

Imagine that ... going for it all. Crazy talk.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:12 PM
Imagine that ... going for it all. Crazy talk.

Unless of course this deal is made in isolation, which would be more in line with other Reds moves of the decade (see the Cordero signing).

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 05:20 PM
Call me crazy (and a lot of you will) but I'm not enamored with Scott Rolen. 5 years ago, this would have been great. Now, not so much IMO.

Rolen hasn't OPSed over .800 for a full season since 2006.
EE has OPSed over .800 every season for the last 4 years.

I know Rolen plays much better D, but he's also 34- an age where the D can go downhill real quickly, not to mention his health concerns (he's played more than 115 games 1 time in the last 5 years.)

EE is far from perfect- especially on defense, but he is 8 years younger and makes almost $10MM/year less than Rolen. Maybe I'd consider a straight-up swap, but I wouldn't be excited giving up much more than that.

Not to mention what in the heck does this mean for the team's direction? I assume it means they're going for it all next season, which would entail keeping Harang and any other vets. What other moves would potentially accompany this- would the Reds actually be "buyers"?

If not, it seems like more of the same paradoxical confusion of "contending while rebuilding" or whatever the hell you want to call the past decade.



EE has OPS'd over .800 twice in his 4 full seasons, and will not OPS over .800 this season.

Over the last 4 seasons, EE has OPS'd over .800 1 more time than Rolen did, after this year it will be Rolen with 2 and EE with 2.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:25 PM
EE has OPS'd over .800 twice in his 4 full seasons, and will not OPS over .800 this season.

Over the last 4 seasons, EE has OPS'd over .800 1 more time than Rolen did, after this year it will be Rolen with 2 and EE with 2.

Sorry, in 2007 he OPSed .794. He also had 10 games in Louisville where he OPSed 1.100 that season. If you want to split hairs, that's fine.

2006: .832
2007: .794
2008: .806
2009: I wouldn't be making any definitive statements just yet. How in the world do you know what's going to happen in the 2nd half?

Kc61
07-09-2009, 05:26 PM
Rolen hasn't OPSed over .800 for a full season since 2006.
EE has OPSed over .800 every season for the last 4 years.

.

It is true that Rolen OPS'd .887 in 2006 and since then has had injured seasons where he's done less well. Last year he was at .780 for 408 at bats. This year, he's well above .800 of course.

But EE has not OPS'd .800 for the last four years. His last four years' OPS numbers are (in reverse order, starting last season) -- .807, .794, .831, .744.

Rolen has a lifetime OPS of .872. EE's all time high OPS was .831.

And, of course, there's defense. Happy to discuss that if you think it's even debatable.

And Rolen is only 33 and his contract only goes through next year, so he still should have some juice left, as this year's fantastic start has shown.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 05:31 PM
Sorry, in 2007 he OPSed .794. He also had 10 games in Louisville where he OPSed 1.100 that season. If you want to split hairs, that's fine.

2006: .832
2007: .794
2008: .806
2009: I wouldn't be making any definitive statements just yet. How in the world do you know what's going to happen in the 2nd half?

Let's say EE gets 250 more PA's the rest of the season. He would have to OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season to get his OPS over .800. If he can do that over the 2nd half, the Reds may just win the division. However, I'd be willing to bet my entire estate he does not OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:34 PM
It is true that Rolen OPS'd .887 in 2006 and since then has had injured seasons where he's done less well. Last year he was at .780 for 408 at bats. This year, he's well above .800 of course.

But EE has not OPS'd .800 for the last four years. His last four years' OPS numbers are (in reverse order, starting last season) -- .807, .794, .831, .744.

Rolen has a lifetime OPS of .872. EE's all time high OPS was .831.

And, of course, there's defense. Happy to discuss that if you think it's even debatable.

And Rolen is only 33 and his contract only goes through next year, so he still should have some juice left, as this year's fantastic start has shown.

Rolen is 34. DOB 04-04-75

IIRC there was another great player who played legendary defense but became plagued by injuries and saw a steep dropoff in production right around that age as well. Ironically, he was paid about $12MM/season.

He also had a couple years of fantastic starts during that time as well, despite talk of his production trending downwards. I think you know who I'm talking about. Would you have been happy trading for him?

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:36 PM
Let's say EE gets 250 more PA's the rest of the season. He would have to OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season to get his OPS over .800. If he can do that over the 2nd half, the Reds may just win the division. However, I'd be willing to bet my entire estate he does not OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season.

And I presume you know how Rolen is going to perform in the 2nd half? If so, can you please tell me what the stock market is going to do the next few months? Maybe you can bet your entire estate on that as well.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2009, 05:47 PM
FWIW, I don't believe the EdE for Rolen deal for one minute. It's funny how only one person (0 posts on Redszone before last night, btw) heard the report.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 05:49 PM
And I presume you know how Rolen is going to perform in the 2nd half? If so, can you please tell me what the stock market is going to do the next few months? Maybe you can bet your entire estate on that as well.

I said nothing about how Rolen is going to perform in the 2nd half. You're statement was mocking the fact that I said EE wouldn't OPS over .800 this season, and my post was illustrating what he would have to do to OPS .800, and the fact that I don't think it is possible for him to do that.

But if you want to continue to try to mock me to make your point then I guess go ahead.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2009, 05:49 PM
FWIW, I don't believe the EdE for Rolen deal for one minute. It's funny how only one person (0 posts on Redszone before last night, btw) heard the report.

Yeah, bogus.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 05:50 PM
FWIW, I don't believe the EdE for Rolen deal for one minute. It's funny how only one person (0 posts on Redszone before last night, btw) heard the report.

I don't either, but I think it would be a good deal. No way the Reds take on that much salary IMO.

Will M
07-09-2009, 05:51 PM
Rolen would be a good addition to the Reds. He provides a middle of the order bat for 2009 & 2010. Frazier can come up sometime in 2010 & play LF (plus sub elsewhere) then take over at 3B in 2011.

Plus if the rumor is true we get rid of EE (my least favorite Red).

As to what they want i would be willing to give them a fair amount.
EE & a couple of prospects not named Heisey, Stewart, Frazier or Alonso.

Benihana
07-09-2009, 05:51 PM
I said nothing about how Rolen is going to perform in the 2nd half. You're statement was mocking the fact that I said EE wouldn't OPS over .800 this season, and my post was illustrating what he would have to do to OPS .800, and the fact that I don't think it is possible for him to do that.

But if you want to continue to try to mock me to make your point then I guess go ahead.


EE has OPS'd over .800 twice in his 4 full seasons, and will not OPS over .800 this season.

Over the last 4 seasons, EE has OPS'd over .800 1 more time than Rolen did, after this year it will be Rolen with 2 and EE with 2.

You were saying?

Degenerate39
07-09-2009, 05:52 PM
FWIW, I don't believe the EdE for Rolen deal for one minute. It's funny how only one person (0 posts on Redszone before last night, btw) heard the report.

What about the Key Mastur?

Brutus
07-09-2009, 05:53 PM
FWIW, I don't believe the EdE for Rolen deal for one minute. It's funny how only one person (0 posts on Redszone before last night, btw) heard the report.

I don't believe it was actually reported, but since Walt Jocketty is very familiar with Rolen, and seeing he seems to be active in looking around for a bat, I could absolutely believe he might be on the Reds' radar and this kind of deal could go down.

Homer Bailey
07-09-2009, 06:02 PM
You were saying?

Alright. I made the bold assumption that Rolen is going to OPS .724 for the rest of the season if he were to play in a bandbox ballpark while making the transition from the best division in baseball to (arguably) the worst, and from the better league to the easier league.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2009, 07:21 PM
Rumors, rumors, rumors - all false
By Hal McCoy | Thursday, July 9, 2009, 06:52 PM

RUMOR OFF-CENTRAL:

No, the Cincinnati Reds are NOT going to sign pitcher Pedro Martinez, as one scout suggested. Martinez will undergo a physical, probably on Saturday, and if he passes the Philadelphia Phillies will announce he belongs to them.

The Reds have a better chance of signing Pedro Serrano from the movie Major League, but they already had him in the personage of Wily Mo Pena.

No, the Cincinnati Reds are NOT acquiring third baseman Scott Rolen from Toronto for Edwin Encarnacion and a top pitching prospect, as was “reported” on a web-site. The web-site said the trade was reported on the Toronto radio network that carries the Blue Jays, but if that’s true, nobody heard it.

Rolen makes $11 milllion this year and $11 million next year, way over the heads of the Reds. The report also said the deal would be announced this weekend after GM Walt Jocketty was finished re-negotiating Rolen’s contract. That’s called tampering and is against the rules and Jocketty wouldn’t do it

Rolen, an Indiana guy, loves Cincinnati and may eventually play for the Reds. But not now and not next year.

No, the Cincinnati Reds are not acquiring Garret Atkins from the Rockies for pitchers David Weathers and Nick Masset. Atkins is making $7.05 million and is having a terrible year. The bullpen has been the best part of the Reds this year (until the last week).

As a Reds official said, “We already have a third baseman, so where would Atkins play? There are only a couple of teams that can take on $18 million in salary.” And the Reds ain’t one of ‘em.

Any more rumors need discounted?

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

TheNext44
07-09-2009, 07:33 PM
I am going on record to say that Rolen will be a Red after the All-Star break.

I was convinced as soon as Hal McCoy said it would never happen. ;)

(Just to be clear, I love Hal, think he's by far the best writer covering the Reds and we should be thankful we have a Hall of Famer covering the Reds. He just has a terrible record on things like this.)

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2009, 08:15 PM
Rumors, rumors, rumors - all false
By Hal McCoy | Thursday, July 9, 2009, 06:52 PM

RUMOR OFF-CENTRAL:

No, the Cincinnati Reds are NOT going to sign pitcher Pedro Martinez, as one scout suggested. Martinez will undergo a physical, probably on Saturday, and if he passes the Philadelphia Phillies will announce he belongs to them.

The Reds have a better chance of signing Pedro Serrano from the movie Major League, but they already had him in the personage of Wily Mo Pena.

No, the Cincinnati Reds are NOT acquiring third baseman Scott Rolen from Toronto for Edwin Encarnacion and a top pitching prospect, as was “reported” on a web-site. The web-site said the trade was reported on the Toronto radio network that carries the Blue Jays, but if that’s true, nobody heard it.

Rolen makes $11 milllion this year and $11 million next year, way over the heads of the Reds. The report also said the deal would be announced this weekend after GM Walt Jocketty was finished re-negotiating Rolen’s contract. That’s called tampering and is against the rules and Jocketty wouldn’t do it

Rolen, an Indiana guy, loves Cincinnati and may eventually play for the Reds. But not now and not next year.

No, the Cincinnati Reds are not acquiring Garret Atkins from the Rockies for pitchers David Weathers and Nick Masset. Atkins is making $7.05 million and is having a terrible year. The bullpen has been the best part of the Reds this year (until the last week).

As a Reds official said, “We already have a third baseman, so where would Atkins play? There are only a couple of teams that can take on $18 million in salary.” And the Reds ain’t one of ‘em.

Any more rumors need discounted?

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

I don't have any problem with Hal never have. That said I don't buy this from him, he is out of the loop IMO. I don't really care if it happens or not, and don't know if it will actually happen. However this is the kind of trade that makes some degree of sense too me and believe it has some legs. Rolen makes quite a bit of money however the Jays just ate like 15 million dumping Ryan so they don't strike me as a team currently opposed to eating some cash if they can also save some cash and add some talent. Enter the chemistry & cost conscious Reds F.O. who have a need for a "big RH bat", and in their mind I can see them viewing Rolen as a big RH bat.

He's a guy who doesn't K a lot, plays good defense and is seemingly a good fit from a chemistry standpoint. If Toronto eats half of his remaining dollars over what EE makes totaling about 9 million and saving them about the same I can see it happening. I can see it as a good fit for everyone including Rolen who probably wouldn't mind being so close to home at this point.

That said if he can't stay healthy he's worthless to us, I hope if he gets dealt here he can stay fairly healthy at least the rest of this year and the 1st half of next year. Then we should have a guy like Frazier who should be ready to take over.

savafan
07-09-2009, 08:24 PM
Nothing against Hal, but has he ever had inside sources for any trade that's ever come down? Seems like he's reported that the Reds aren't going to make any trades for the last 30 years.

Big Klu
07-09-2009, 08:38 PM
As much as I'm not sure about trying to listen to George Grande drool over Scott Rolen for the rest of this season and next like he did in Toronto, Rolen would provide a good veteran presence and work ethic for the younger players on our team.


George would be over his Rolen fixation, because he only drools over players for opposing clubs, not Reds players.

RED VAN HOT
07-09-2009, 08:51 PM
I am going on record to say that Rolen will be a Red after the All-Star break.

I was convinced as soon as Hal McCoy said it would never happen. ;)

(Just to be clear, I love Hal, think he's by far the best writer covering the Reds and we should be thankful we have a Hall of Famer covering the Reds. He just has a terrible record on things like this.)

McCoy aside, of all the trade rumors I have heard, the Rolen one makes the most sense to me. Money is always an issue, but remember, EE is scheduled to make $4.75M next year. If my math is correct, that means Rolen will cost $6.25M extra next year plus around $4.5M extra for the balance of this year.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2009, 08:59 PM
McCoy aside, of all the trade rumors I have heard, the Rolen one makes the most sense to me. Money is always an issue, but remember, EE is scheduled to make $4.75M next year. If my math is correct, that means Rolen will cost $6.25M extra next year plus around $4.5M extra for the balance of this year.

According to Cots he is making 11 mill both this year and next plus he has a 4 million dollar bonus coming next year and it didn't specify why so I assume it's not performance related. But again if the Jays eat some dough I bet they work something out. I'd guess the only holdup if any would be getting Rolen to agree to be dealt and I doubt that would be an issue given all the circumstances. But I presume like was stated in a rumor about it that Rolen/agent need to speak with Walt to measure the Reds seriousness in competing for the playoffs.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2009, 09:00 PM
McCoy aside, of all the trade rumors I have heard, the Rolen one makes the most sense to me. Money is always an issue, but remember, EE is scheduled to make $4.75M next year. If my math is correct, that means Rolen will cost $6.25M extra next year plus around $4.5M extra for the balance of this year.

A little more than that, Rolen will make 15 million next year. Toronto would have to take on a lot of money to make this trade happen.

Highlifeman21
07-09-2009, 09:31 PM
Nothing against Hal, but has he ever had inside sources for any trade that's ever come down? Seems like he's reported that the Reds aren't going to make any trades for the last 30 years.

Didn't McCoy report that his boy Bailey had been traded to the White Sox for Dye earlier this year?

RED VAN HOT
07-09-2009, 09:32 PM
A little more than that, Rolen will make 15 million next year. Toronto would have to take on a lot of money to make this trade happen.

My bad. I didn't read far enough at Cot's.

REDREAD
07-09-2009, 09:44 PM
If the Reds and Jays are close on the player package and the Reds don't pull the trigger on this deal it's time to give up wasting time on this team.

If they can't afford a major contract that ends in a year and a half, then they are hopeless. And if they think keeping EE over Rolen makes sense, they are also hopeless.

Yep, if the Jays are willing to do EdE + minor prospect for Rolen, you jump on it.

REDREAD
07-09-2009, 09:48 PM
EE is far from perfect- especially on defense, but he is 8 years younger and makes almost $10MM/year less than Rolen. Maybe I'd consider a straight-up swap, but I wouldn't be excited giving up much more than that.
.

EdE is young.. however, he's being paid to produce now, but isn't.
I question whether he'll ever learn defense. Sure, age is on his side, but I question whether EdE will be kept beyond his current contract anyhow (end of 2010).

When you think of 1.5 years of Rolen (is that what is left on his deal) vs 1.5 or 2.5 years of EdE, it becomes a lot easier for me.

*BaseClogger*
07-10-2009, 12:50 AM
Let's say EE gets 250 more PA's the rest of the season. He would have to OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season to get his OPS over .800. If he can do that over the 2nd half, the Reds may just win the division. However, I'd be willing to bet my entire estate he does not OPS 1.046 for the rest of the season.

I don't understand what you are getting at. What EE and Rolen have done thus far this season is water under the bridge. All we care about is what they will do for us over the next two and a half months. So I don't care what EE would have to do to get his OPS over 800 or how high of a BA Rolen has right now. What is their true skill level? Perhaps more importantly, what is the difference in talent between the two players? Will the addition outweigh the burned resources?

BTW, if BaseClogger doesn't think Matt Holliday puts the Reds over the top he surely doesn't think Scott Rolen puts them over the top. Besides, like Hal said, the Reds have a 3B... ;)

Homer Bailey
07-10-2009, 12:55 AM
I don't understand what you are getting at. What EE and Rolen have done thus far this season is water under the bridge. All we care about is what they will do for us over the next two and a half months. So I don't care what EE would have to do to get his OPS over 800 or how high of a BA Rolen has right now. What is their true skill level? Perhaps more importantly, what is the difference in talent between the two players? Will the addition outweigh the burned resources?

BTW, if BaseClogger doesn't think Matt Holliday puts the Reds over the top he surely doesn't think Scott Rolen puts them over the top. Besides, like Hal said, the Reds have a 3B... ;)

You're taking this post out of context. It was made in regards to Benihana saying that we don't know if EE is going to finish the season with an .800 OPS.

I agree that what has happened, happened, and all that we care about is what happens from here on out.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 01:27 AM
Hal added this to his previous blog:

Just to cover the bases, though, a knowledgeable person close to the Blue Jays said that the Jays and Reds HAVE talked. The Jays are NOT interested in Encarnacion. They are most interested in minor league prospects.

When the Reds were in Toronto, GM Walt Jocketty chatted for a long time with Rolen near the batting cage, “Just to say hello.” Rolen played in St. Louis when Jocketty was there. There was no tampering involved, just chit-chat, but I’d be willing to bet all my Tommy Bahama shirts that Rolen mentioned, you know, just in passing, that he sure loves the midwest, being an Indiana boy and all.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/07/09/rumor_offcentral_no_the_cincin.html

Tom Servo
07-10-2009, 01:35 AM
Just to cover the bases, though, a knowledgeable person close to the Blue Jays said that the Jays and Reds HAVE talked. The Jays are NOT interested in Encarnacion. They are most interested in minor league prospects.

So clearly what Hal is saying here is that the REDS ARE GETTING ROY HALLADAY! :jump:

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 02:47 AM
I don't understand what you are getting at. What EE and Rolen have done thus far this season is water under the bridge. All we care about is what they will do for us over the next two and a half months. So I don't care what EE would have to do to get his OPS over 800 or how high of a BA Rolen has right now. What is their true skill level? Perhaps more importantly, what is the difference in talent between the two players? Will the addition outweigh the burned resources?

BTW, if BaseClogger doesn't think Matt Holliday puts the Reds over the top he surely doesn't think Scott Rolen puts them over the top. Besides, like Hal said, the Reds have a 3B... ;)

They do? Who? I don't see one on the roster.

Topcat
07-10-2009, 05:05 AM
I am all for the shot in the arm fix but economics are going to come into play for dang sure. If the price to get Rolen is his full salary and top notch prospects ................... no bloody way! Roy Halliday on the other hand wow :eek:, that you empty the bank for and spin him when time comes that he can not be resigned. The Doc quite simply put is a work of art seldom ever found.

Just wanted to add this wow did I do a dang decent job in the mock 2006 draft! Hope to get back into it next year since it was my Idea!

Eric_the_Red
07-10-2009, 08:37 AM
What about a trade to bring Rolen in and moving EE to LF? I know it is in the middle of the season, but really how much worse could he be defensively in left than at third?

nate
07-10-2009, 08:50 AM
I don't understand what you are getting at. What EE and Rolen have done thus far this season is water under the bridge. All we care about is what they will do for us over the next two and a half months. So I don't care what EE would have to do to get his OPS over 800 or how high of a BA Rolen has right now. What is their true skill level? Perhaps more importantly, what is the difference in talent between the two players? Will the addition outweigh the burned resources?

BTW, if BaseClogger doesn't think Matt Holliday puts the Reds over the top he surely doesn't think Scott Rolen puts them over the top. Besides, like Hal said, the Reds have a 3B... ;)

I know what you're saying and like how you refer to yourself in the third person but I think the net gain by plugging Rolen into the 3B spot > the net gain by plugging Holliday into the LF spot.

Hypothetically, of course!

HotCorner
07-10-2009, 09:26 AM
I know what you're saying and like how you refer to yourself in the third person but I think the net gain by plugging Rolen into the 3B spot > the net gain by plugging Holliday into the LF spot.

Hypothetically, of course!

Hmm? Edwin to Oakland for Holliday and a package of prospects to Toronto for Rolen?

Well the offense would be a lot better but at what cost?

Benihana
07-10-2009, 10:57 AM
Finally, a "real article" backing some of this up...

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2009/07/10/10085181-sun.html



Red-hot Rolen on Reds' radar

By BOB ELLIOTT, SUN MEDIA

Last Updated: 10th July 2009, 4:17am

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The Cincinnati Reds have talked internally about obtaining third baseman Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays.

The trade would re-unite Rolen with general manager Walt Jocketty. The two were together in St. Louis when the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series over the Detroit Tigers.

The Jays are looking to dump payroll and Rolen earns $11 million US this year and in 2010, the final two years of an eight-year $90-million contract he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2002. Rolen has been the Jays' best hitter this season, batting .330 with six homers and 34 RBIs and is working on a 25-game hit streak.

The Reds had a scout in St. Petersburg to watch Rolen this week as the Jays played the Tampa Bay Rays.

Besides dumping cash, the Jays are looking for prospects in return.

The Reds, however, have dangled third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, 26, who started 143 games at third for them last season, hitting .251 with 26 homers and 68 RBIs.

This season, he has appeared in only 25 games after breaking his wrist in April, and is hitting just .150 with one homer.

He earns $2 million this season and next season will earn $4.75 million.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers had scouts Vance Lovelace and Lee Elia, a former Jays coach, watching Roy Halladay's start against the Rays yesterday afternoon.

Also on hand were Jay Wetherby of the Detroit Tigers and Joe Sparks of the Oakland A's. Both clubs are possible Halladay suitors. The Boston Red Sox also had a scout there.

My guess is the Jays would want something like Frazier and Wood. Not sure I'd like that...

HotCorner
07-10-2009, 11:03 AM
Maloney and Valaika?

Brutus
07-10-2009, 11:04 AM
Finally, a "real article" backing some of this up...

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2009/07/10/10085181-sun.html

It made a lot of sense that something like this was being discussed. The Reds' non-denial denial through Hal McCoy seemed very weak. They went out of their way to mention they had a third baseman already, but it was not suggested they add a second third baseman, but rather replace the one they have with a different one.

As I said earlier in this thread, I was not sure if I believed the actual first rumor, but I definitely believed something like this could be in the works. Now it seems like perhaps the poster that initiated this rumor could potentially have been correct in what he heard.

Benihana
07-10-2009, 11:08 AM
Maloney and Valaika?

That I'd do in a second.

Move EE to LF and platoon Gomes with Bruce.

I think they'd at least demand Cozart over Valaika though, and would probably still want more.

HotCorner
07-10-2009, 11:14 AM
That I'd do in a second.

Move EE to LF and platoon Gomes with Bruce.

I think they'd at least demand Cozart over Valaika though, and would probably still want more.

But if they are looking to cut cost and don't pay any salary, the prospects will not be as good.

As for EE, maybe they ship him, Dickerson and a prospect to Oakland for Holliday. Dreaming I know but man would that ever cure the offensive woes.

nate
07-10-2009, 11:15 AM
The only thing about the Rolen deal is that the Reds would really have to be looking at some seriously creative banking to make the numbers work. I do imagine that Rolen would drive up ticket sales a bit as he's a name that casual fans probably know.

nate
07-10-2009, 11:16 AM
But if they are looking to cut cost and don't pay any salary, the prospects will not be as good.

As for EE, maybe they ship him, Dickerson and a prospect to Oakland for Holliday. Dreaming I know but man would that ever cure the offensive woes.

If we got Rolen, I'd honestly be looking for another SP more than LF.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 11:16 AM
How long is Rolen signed for?

Brutus
07-10-2009, 11:17 AM
The only thing about the Rolen deal is that the Reds would really have to be looking at some seriously creative banking to make the numbers work. I do imagine that Rolen would drive up ticket sales a bit as he's a name that casual fans probably know.

I suspect that a Rolen deal would be accompanied by an Encarnacion & prospects deal somewhere else for another player as well as a trade of Harang or Arroyo.

Benihana
07-10-2009, 11:17 AM
How long is Rolen signed for?

Through 2010.

Benihana
07-10-2009, 11:19 AM
I suspect that a Rolen deal would be accompanied by an Encarnacion & prospects deal somewhere else for another player as well as a trade of Harang or Arroyo.

Disagree with the second part at least.

Arroyo is pretty much untradeable right now. The Rolen acquisition would be meaningless if the club dealt Harang. The whole point of getting Scott Rolen would be to go for it in these next two years. Trading Harang (for prospects) would make that goal pretty difficult and would negate any benefit of a Rolen acquisition.

nate
07-10-2009, 11:23 AM
Disagree with the second part at least.

Arroyo is pretty much untradeable right now. The Rolen acquisition would be meaningless if the club dealt Harang. The whole point of getting Scott Rolen would be to go for it in these next two years. Trading Harang (for prospects) would make that goal pretty difficult and would negate any benefit of a Rolen acquisition.

Yeah.

They do have to do something about the bread though. Rolen doesn't make peanuts.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 11:24 AM
I would be looking to upgrade the 2010 Reds because this years team isn't going anywhere. Count me in favor of Scott Rolen since he could potentially help the Reds next season. I wouldn't give up the farm to get him though.

bucksfan2
07-10-2009, 11:25 AM
The only thing about the Rolen deal is that the Reds would really have to be looking at some seriously creative banking to make the numbers work. I do imagine that Rolen would drive up ticket sales a bit as he's a name that casual fans probably know.

The only thing we know about the financials is that the Reds cut their spending once the economy tanked. Whether or not that was a prudent move or a move of necessity is only known by the Reds brass. IMO Jocketty always seemed like a guy who was able to judge both the trade and FA market pretty aptly and maybe he told Cast to hold off on spending because players will be coming cheap at the trade deadline.

I will be very interested to see if the Reds do make a move, and if Wood and Frazier are involved in any trade. If they are it may say a little about the value that Jocketty placed on both prospects. If the Reds move Frazier there may be questions about him being able to stick at 3B or hit for enough power to play LF. If they are dangling Wood as trade bait then that may be the reasons behind him staying down in AA and putting up good numbers. A dominant Wood in AA ball carries much more trade value than a mediocre Wood at AAA.

Hoosier Red
07-10-2009, 11:31 AM
At this point if they're going to go for it, that probably means at least two trades. But it also means there are no untouchables in a trade.

Wood, Frazier, Stubbs, Alonso. Everyone's on the table.

GOYA
07-10-2009, 11:37 AM
Has anyone seen any sign that Castellini is willing to increase payroll?

Benihana
07-10-2009, 11:38 AM
If they are dangling Wood as trade bait then that may be the reasons behind him staying down in AA and putting up good numbers. A dominant Wood in AA ball carries much more trade value than a mediocre Wood at AAA.

I said as much on the Minor League thread last night, and the same could possibly apply to Frazier as well. If the Reds acquire Rolen and EE is not in the deal, these are the two prospects most likely to go IMO.

Strikes Out Looking
07-10-2009, 11:49 AM
When is the press conference? I don't know if trading for Rolen is the answer, but this team needs to do something if it has a chance to compete this year and to get people to show up at the stadium after the break. (I think DFA'ing a certain CF would do as much)

osuceltic
07-10-2009, 12:01 PM
As with any deal involving a big contract, the prospects involved would depend on how much money Toronto is sending with Rolen. If the Reds take the entire hit, the prospects aren't going to be as good. If Toronto absorbs some of the costs, they get better prospects.

Frazier - Wood seems steep if the Reds are footing the bill for the contract.

flyer85
07-10-2009, 12:06 PM
I doubt the Jay ares interested in sending cash ... they just ate $15M when they released Ryan.

IslandRed
07-10-2009, 12:16 PM
Has anyone seen any sign that Castellini is willing to increase payroll?

The signals have been mixed, and that's probably wise. For that matter, the question may not have a fixed answer, depending on the player(s) involved, Jocketty's persuasiveness and the team's cash flow.

bucksfan2
07-10-2009, 12:21 PM
Has anyone seen any sign that Castellini is willing to increase payroll?

Have we seen anything to the contrary?

I know we saw the Reds reign in the spending in this past off season but right now that looks like the prudent move. In a down economy there just weren't guys out there who fit the Reds needs, as well as the Reds switch towards pitching and defense.

BearcatShane
07-10-2009, 12:28 PM
I'm not sure the Blue Jays asking price for Rolen would be all that high for Rolen. They might look at this as more of a salary dump.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 12:33 PM
Blogging about Rolen from aboard the Keystone
Posted by JohnFay at 7/10/2009 11:16 AM EDT on Cincinnati.com

This is a first. This blog missive comes from a moving train. I'm on my way from Philly to New York. The train is only way to go. Walk up buy your ticket for $64, 10 minutes later you're rolling. Lots of room. A plug for you laptop.

I saw the Scott Rolen thing from the Toronto Sun. Here's a link. I don't think the Reds have the money to pull it off. Rolen's health is an issue, although the Reds should have all the reports on him. Dr. Tim Kremchek did his surgery.

The Reds have to win two of three this weekend to even think about being buyers in my estimation. You don't add a 34-year-old making a lot of money (almost $6 million for the rest of the year), unless you think he gets you over the top. The Reds are in fifth place right now -- albeit 4 1/2 games back.

Rolen is Bob Castellini's kind of guy. He may be one of the players Castellini would bend the budget for. Rolen will make $11 million next year.

This could be nothing. The Reds have had internal discussions about a lot of players and they have scouts at a lot of games. But it's an interesting one to consider.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a22243f17-7343-4736-ac24-072c54370424&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 12:36 PM
Has anyone seen any sign that Castellini is willing to increase payroll?

I can't find the actual article, but around a month ago, both Jocketty and Castellini were directly quoted as saying that the Reds had payroll flexibility.

I also remember both saying when they announced before the season that they were not adding any more payroll at that point, that one reason was to give them payroll flexibility at the trading deadline.

I don't think that the Reds budget has changed, but I do think that the Reds currently are operating below their budget ceiling.

CrackerJack
07-10-2009, 12:47 PM
I don't think Rolen helps them much more, if any, than a healthy EE the rest of the year.

Would rather have another good BP arm, or a CF & SS who can hit, and I guess you're stuck praying Bruce turns it around in the 2nd half.

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 01:05 PM
The Reds payroll is now at almost exactly $70M.

Most experts reported that the budget would be around $80M this year. Let's say the budget was set at $75M to be conservative.

That means over the first three month, the Reds saved $2.5M by being under budget. That means that they now should have $40M budgeted for the second half, since they had $37.5 originally. They currently are at $35M, which means they can add $5M without going over budget, assuming that they were below budget at the start of the season.

If their actual budget was $80M, then they would have an additional $10M to add. Basically, if it was true that they were operating below their budget from the beginning of the season to give themselves payroll flexibility now, they should have somewhere between $5-10M to spend.

Rolen easily fits that, as he is due $5.5M for the rest of this season. I am not sure how he fits into next year's budget, but then again, I think no one, not even Castellini knows that.

One side note, Rolen makes $11M next year, not $15M. The $4M bonus has already been paid by the Cardinals. It was part of the Glaus deal.

Benihana
07-10-2009, 01:11 PM
Most experts reported that the budget would be around $80M this year.


Was this before or after the stock market fell 40% in three months?

LoganBuck
07-10-2009, 01:37 PM
Was this before or after the stock market fell 40% in three months?

The stock market is back up 15%. Not saying that is great or anything but BobC is a smart man. He is probably bouncing back. He also knows that if he doesn't do something, people are not going to spend money on his team, especially in a down economy. Announced attendance in August and September will be around 13,000, actual attendance will compete with the Dayton Dragons. This team needs a shot in the arm. NOW.

I(heart)Freel
07-10-2009, 02:02 PM
The Reds payroll is now at almost exactly $70M.

Most experts reported that the budget would be around $80M this year. Let's say the budget was set at $75M to be conservative.

That means over the first three month, the Reds saved $2.5M by being under budget. That means that they now should have $40M budgeted for the second half, since they had $37.5 originally. They currently are at $35M, which means they can add $5M without going over budget, assuming that they were below budget at the start of the season.

If their actual budget was $80M, then they would have an additional $10M to add. Basically, if it was true that they were operating below their budget from the beginning of the season to give themselves payroll flexibility now, they should have somewhere between $5-10M to spend.

Rolen easily fits that, as he is due $5.5M for the rest of this season. I am not sure how he fits into next year's budget, but then again, I think no one, not even Castellini knows that.

One side note, Rolen makes $11M next year, not $15M. The $4M bonus has already been paid by the Cardinals. It was part of the Glaus deal.

The budget was also based on more ticket sales than what the Reds have seen this year. Advance ticket sales have been paltry. So player payroll would likely also be adjusted down.

Orenda
07-10-2009, 02:48 PM
So I'm watching Baseball Tonight last night and Buster Olney is reporting that Blue Jays GM, J.P. Ricciardi is demanding multiple top prospects for ace Roy Halladay. Now that's an obvious statement when dealing with one of the best pitchers in baseball, but after thinking about it I came to the conclusion that the Blue Jays are weak on leverage. Say for example that the Blue Jays are not able to get what they'd like for all the guys they are trying to deal and end up keeping all of them. They would still have a pretty good team but they probably could only hope to finish 3rd in the division, at best. Right now I'd take the Blue Jays system (majors and minors) last out of all the teams in that division. Realistically the Blue Jays probably wont outspend the Yankees and Red Sox (who also have good young talent) they don't have near the talent the Rays do and they could be on the verge of being passed over by the Orioles who have quietly assembled an interesting roster with some nice young arms in the pipeline.

I think the best thing the Jays can do now is to try to get out from under those contracts and begin to rebuild, but they also are hoping that the rest of MLB will bail them out at the same time and retool their system with better talent. Halladay will net a good return, but I think it would probably be on par with the C.C. Sabathia deal from last season. I guess I just think its unreasonable to assume that teams are going to be willing to unload multiple top prospects for expensive players. Personally I'm hoping the Blue Jays end up continuing to pay top dollar for 4th place.

Quoting the man from the flea market "it's not worth what you think its worth, it's only worth what you can get for it."

bucksfan2
07-10-2009, 02:49 PM
IMO Halladay will demand more in return than CC. The biggest difference is that Halladay has another year on his contract where CC was headed for NY once the Brewers season was over.

Orenda
07-10-2009, 03:04 PM
IMO Halladay will demand more in return than CC. The biggest difference is that Halladay has another year on his contract where CC was headed for NY once the Brewers season was over.

Yes, but I guess my main point is that I'm not exactly sure that the Blue Jays want to keep Halladay. To me it's clear they are in rebuilding mode. They have alot of money tied up into Rolen, Rios, Wells, Halladay, and they just ate B.J. Ryan's contract and they aren't a contender in that division so if I was an opposing GM, J.P. Ricciardi wouldn't be dictating the conversation.

princeton
07-10-2009, 03:07 PM
after thinking about it I came to the conclusion that the Blue Jays are weak on leverage.


you think too much, I think.

Jpup
07-10-2009, 03:31 PM
EdE is young.. however, he's being paid to produce now, but isn't.

His OPS since returning is .890.

just sayin'.

Hoosier Red
07-10-2009, 03:58 PM
His OPS since returning is .890.

just sayin'.

Small Sample Size Express eh.

Going into last night it was .530.

Just saying.

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 04:04 PM
EE will hit fine, around 800 OPS, but he has already shown that his fielding has not improved. Not just throwing error, but mental ones as well.

I just don't think that there is anyway a team can contend with a glove that bad at 3B, unless he as putting up Pujols type numbers offensively. And remember, the Cards did move Pujols to 1B from 3B, so they thought even his bat did not justify a bad glove at third.

Jpup
07-10-2009, 04:05 PM
Small Sample Size Express eh.

Going into last night it was .530.

Just saying.

His entire season has been a small sample. To say he is not producing is unfair. We don't know yet.

Jpup
07-10-2009, 04:06 PM
EE will hit fine, around 800 OPS, but he has already shown that his fielding has not improved. Not just throwing error, but mental ones as well.

I just don't think that there is anyway a team can contend with a glove that bad at 3B, unless he as putting up Pujols type numbers offensively. And remember, the Cards did move Pujols to 1B from 3B, so they thought even his bat did not justify a bad glove at third.

Expecting anyone to be Albert Pujols is a little much. I believe some people have unrealistic expectations.

RED VAN HOT
07-10-2009, 04:10 PM
The problem is that the Reds need to subtract as well as add. Several 2 year deals that looked like bargains six months ago now weigh heavily on the payroll and roster. If the Reds don't manage to clear at least EE in a trade for Rolen, I can't see it happening. Apparently, the Jays don't want him because, like most ML teams these days, they are trying to shed payroll in favor of young talent. Even if you believed EE could hit enough to be a LF candidate, his defense alone should discourage giving this plan serious consideration. Extrapolating his throwing inaccuracy to LF means that a throw to the plate could be expected to land somewhere between first base and the left field side dugout. If you keep EE, his salary is added to what you obligate to Rolen because he won't have a place to play and the Reds will have to eat the salary or keep more deserving talent in the minors.

Suppose the Jays would take EE on condition that the Reds also sweetened the deal with prospects. I would be willing to part with any young talent except the following players.
Bailey..He is finally looking like a 1 or 2 starter.
Heisey...He is a game changer. I am puzzled by the constant talk of acquiring a RH bat for the outfield. I wish Heisey were with the Reds now.
Wood...A LHP this polished and this young is rare. Top of the rotation potential.

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 04:13 PM
Expecting anyone to be Albert Pujols is a little much. I believe some people have unrealistic expectations.

I am sorry if it sounds like that is what I said.

I am saying that only if he were putting numbers like Pujols, would he justify his defense, and even then, maybe not.

I am not expecting EE to hit like Pujols, I am expecting him to OPS around .800 and have a -15 - -25 UZR/150 playing at 3B. Which is why I don't think he should be the Reds thirdbaseman.

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 04:18 PM
The problem is that the Reds need to subtract as well as add. Several 2 year deals that looked like bargains six months ago now weigh heavily on the payroll and roster. If the Reds don't manage to clear at least EE in a trade for Rolen, I can't see it happening. Apparently, the Jays don't want him because, like most ML teams these days, they are trying to shed payroll in favor of young talent. Even if you believed EE could hit enough to be a LF candidate, his defense alone should discourage giving this plan serious consideration. Extrapolating his throwing inaccuracy to LF means that a throw to the plate could be expected to land somewhere between first base and the left field side dugout. If you keep EE, his salary is added to what you obligate to Rolen because he won't have a place to play and the Reds will have to eat the salary or keep more deserving talent in the minors.

Suppose the Jays would take EE on condition that the Reds also sweetened the deal with prospects. I would be willing to part with any young talent except the following players.
Bailey..He is finally looking like a 1 or 2 starter.
Heisey...He is a game changer. I am puzzled by the constant talk of acquiring a RH bat for the outfield. I wish Heisey were with the Reds now.
Wood...A LHP this polished and this young is rare. Top of the rotation potential.

So you would be willing to add Alonso, Stubbs, Stewart, Frazier, Lotzkar or Soto to EE, for Rolen?

KoryMac5
07-10-2009, 04:22 PM
The problem is that the Reds need to subtract as well as add. Several 2 year deals that looked like bargains six months ago now weigh heavily on the payroll and roster. If the Reds don't manage to clear at least EE in a trade for Rolen, I can't see it happening. Apparently, the Jays don't want him because, like most ML teams these days, they are trying to shed payroll in favor of young talent. Even if you believed EE could hit enough to be a LF candidate, his defense alone should discourage giving this plan serious consideration. Extrapolating his throwing inaccuracy to LF means that a throw to the plate could be expected to land somewhere between first base and the left field side dugout. If you keep EE, his salary is added to what you obligate to Rolen because he won't have a place to play and the Reds will have to eat the salary or keep more deserving talent in the minors.

Suppose the Jays would take EE on condition that the Reds also sweetened the deal with prospects. I would be willing to part with any young talent except the following players.
Bailey..He is finally looking like a 1 or 2 starter.
Heisey...He is a game changer. I am puzzled by the constant talk of acquiring a RH bat for the outfield. I wish Heisey were with the Reds now.
Wood...A LHP this polished and this young is rare. Top of the rotation potential.

So we would add prospects to the deal and take on all of Rolen's salary? :eek:

I(heart)Freel
07-10-2009, 04:27 PM
The problem is that the Reds need to subtract as well as add. Several 2 year deals that looked like bargains six months ago now weigh heavily on the payroll and roster. If the Reds don't manage to clear at least EE in a trade for Rolen, I can't see it happening. Apparently, the Jays don't want him because, like most ML teams these days, they are trying to shed payroll in favor of young talent. Even if you believed EE could hit enough to be a LF candidate, his defense alone should discourage giving this plan serious consideration. Extrapolating his throwing inaccuracy to LF means that a throw to the plate could be expected to land somewhere between first base and the left field side dugout. If you keep EE, his salary is added to what you obligate to Rolen because he won't have a place to play and the Reds will have to eat the salary or keep more deserving talent in the minors.

Suppose the Jays would take EE on condition that the Reds also sweetened the deal with prospects. I would be willing to part with any young talent except the following players.
Bailey..He is finally looking like a 1 or 2 starter.
Heisey...He is a game changer. I am puzzled by the constant talk of acquiring a RH bat for the outfield. I wish Heisey were with the Reds now.
Wood...A LHP this polished and this young is rare. Top of the rotation potential.

Lincoln and Willy are the only two contracts I might characterize as "bad." But they really aren't for too terribly much either. See the thread I started about the 2010 payroll as evidence.

RED VAN HOT
07-10-2009, 05:14 PM
So you would be willing to add Alonso, Stubbs, Stewart, Frazier, Lotzkar or Soto to EE, for Rolen?

First of all, I like all of these players. I would not want to trade any of them. Losing any of them would be painful. Of the ones you mention, I would have the toughest time parting with Stewart and Frazier. Alonso can only play first and I am yet to be convinced that he will outhit Votto. I have been in the Stubbs camp for a while, but mostly because of his defense. I am getting frustrated that his power potential is not being realized. Lotzkar may never be healthy and still has a long way to go. Soto also has a way to go. I am surprised that you did not also mention Francisco. I think he has a higher ceiling than Soto. I suspect that the Jays would want him.

With regard to KoryMac5's question, I would be willing to trade EE and one prospect as long as it was not one of the three I listed. That's just me. I don't see replacements for those three elsewhere in the system. If it is true that the bonus has been paid, then the money differential is not as daunting.

I apologize for taking this discussion down the path of discussing the relative merits of prospects.

TheNext44
07-10-2009, 05:22 PM
First of all, I like all of these players. I would not want to trade any of them. Losing any of them would be painful. Of the ones you mention, I would have the toughest time parting with Stewart and Frazier. Alonso can only play first and I am yet to be convinced that he will outhit Votto. I have been in the Stubbs camp for a while, but mostly because of his defense. I am getting frustrated that his power potential is not being realized. Lotzkar may never be healthy and still has a long way to go. Soto also has a way to go. I am surprised that you did not also mention Francisco. I think he has a higher ceiling than Soto. I suspect that the Jays would want him.

With regard to KoryMac5's question, I would be willing to trade EE and one prospect as long as it was not one of the three I listed. That's just me. I don't see replacements for those three elsewhere in the system. If it is true that the bonus has been paid, then the money differential is not as daunting.

I apologize for taking this discussion down the path of discussing the relative merits of prospects.


Thanks for clarifying. I was not criticizing, just asking. All good points. No need to apologize. :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 06:37 PM
Jocketty on Rolen, well, not on Rolen but you get the idea
Posted by JohnFay at 7/10/2009 5:24 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Walt Jocketty would not comment on the the Scott Rolen report from the Toronto Sun. He can't. It's tampering to talk about another team's players.

"I'm not going to talk about any specific player," Jocketty said. "We've said all along that we're looking for a right-handed hitter. So I can see where that speculation comes from. But we're looking more for someone who can play the outfield."

Rolen's would make nearly $6 million for the rest of this year and he'll make $11 million next year.

The Reds had the flexibility to add Mark De Rosa's salary. Jocketty said they could still add payroll.

"I don't think anything has changed there," Jocketty said.

I think the only way a Reds-Rolen trade happens is if the Blue Jays are willing to take Edwin Encarnacion.

It's pretty clear that the Reds have players that other teams are interested in. Young pitching is the No. 1 commodity in the baseball. The Reds have three rookies in their bullpen and a plenty of prospects at the Double-A level and above.

"I've been getting a lot of calls," Jocketty said.

Stay tuned -- 21 days until the trade deadline.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3ab071cc65-b57f-4430-a1c4-b97f48c5d7b9&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Please don't mortgage the future for a half year rental. This team isn't going anywhere this season. The time to make a trade was during the offseason.

RedEye
07-10-2009, 06:45 PM
Jocketty on Rolen, well, not on Rolen but you get the idea
Posted by JohnFay at 7/10/2009 5:24 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com
I think the only way a Reds-Rolen trade happens is if the Blue Jays are willing to take Edwin Encarnacion.


I don't get this whole "willing to take Edwin Encarnacion" thing. If they can shed an expensive, injury-prone, declining 3B for a younger, cheaper one who still has upside, don't the the Jays do it every time--especially if they can dump salary and get a prospect too? The deal, at least as rumored, sounds really bad for the Reds.

IslandRed
07-10-2009, 06:56 PM
Please don't mortgage the future for a half year rental. This team isn't going anywhere this season. The time to make a trade was during the offseason.

A 1.5 year rental, technically.

I'll toss this out for consideration... the conventional wisdom says that teams Going For It trade prospects for veterans, and teams Out Of It trade veterans for prospects. But when Jocketty traded for McGwire, it was a backwards deal. The Cardinals were all but out of the race on that July 31 (51-56, 7.5 games out in third place) but he saw an opportunity in the deadline trade market to grab a cornerstone for future Cardinal teams. It wasn't a sure thing (there was no guarantee McGwire, a FA-to-be, would sign an extension) but it was a risk that turned out to be worth taking.

It's not a given that a deal for a veteran will be all about this year. Nor am I saying Rolen is the right guy. I'm just sayin'... :p:

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2009, 07:02 PM
A 1.5 year rental, technically.


Oh, I'm in favor of Rolen as long as the Reds don't have to give up a ton. But it sounds like Walt is focusing on an outfielder though. I just hope he doesn't give up the farm for a half year rental like Matt Holliday for example. I would start building for 2010. Next year's team has a chance to be very good IMO, if Walt makes some moves.

HotCorner
07-10-2009, 08:05 PM
Oh, I'm in favor of Rolen as long as the Reds don't have to give up a ton. But it sounds like Walt is focusing on an outfielder though. I just hope he doesn't give up the farm for a half year rental like Matt Holliday for example. I would start building for 2010. Next year's team has a chance to be very good IMO, if Walt makes some moves.

For all the talk of 'giving up the farm for Holliday', Anaheim only give up Casey Kotchman and a minor league reliever for Mark Teixeira last season. It all depends on the market.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 08:07 PM
I don't get this whole "willing to take Edwin Encarnacion" thing. If they can shed an expensive, injury-prone, declining 3B for a younger, cheaper one who still has upside, don't the the Jays do it every time--especially if they can dump salary and get a prospect too? The deal, at least as rumored, sounds really bad for the Reds.

Our best hope with EdE was that other GM's would cross their eyes and see a 3B. They probably don't because he isn't.

reds44
07-10-2009, 08:25 PM
Yeah, I really don't understand the "willing to take Edwin Encarnacion" thing either. Even though he isn't hitting right now (and I have faith he will), it's not like he is expensive and is eating up payroll. The Reds shouldn't be trying to dump him at his lowest value.

reds44
07-10-2009, 08:27 PM
Suppose the Jays would take EE on condition that the Reds also sweetened the deal with prospects.

Then you just don't include EE in the deal? EE is not somebody the Reds need to desperatley trying to deal. It's not like he is a clubhouse cancer or is eating up a truckload of money. This makes no sense.

HokieRed
07-10-2009, 09:03 PM
Oh, I'm in favor of Rolen as long as the Reds don't have to give up a ton. But it sounds like Walt is focusing on an outfielder though. I just hope he doesn't give up the farm for a half year rental like Matt Holliday for example. I would start building for 2010. Next year's team has a chance to be very good IMO, if Walt makes some moves.


If we can get Rolen, do we get an outfielder whose initials are EE.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 09:04 PM
It's not like he is a clubhouse cancer or is eating up a truckload of money

No but if you conclude that he shouldn't play third and his bat's not enough for left-field then you should look to move him. Preferably last winter.

reds44
07-10-2009, 09:06 PM
No but if you conclude that he shouldn't play third and his bat's not enough for left-field then you should look to move him. Preferably last winter.
Again, there's a difference between "looking to move him" and "paying people to take him off your hands." A big, big difference.

reds44
07-10-2009, 09:07 PM
If we can get Rolen, do we get an outfielder whose initials are EE.
I think that depends on if Edwin is in the part of the deal or not. IMO, it would be in the best interest of the Reds if they really want to make a run this year to have both EE and Rolen in the lineup.

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 09:10 PM
Then you just don't include EE in the deal? EE is not somebody the Reds need to desperatley trying to deal. It's not like he is a clubhouse cancer or is eating up a truckload of money. This makes no sense.

I think it's pretty clear that EE has a wider view of opinions than really about anyone this side of Homer Bailey out there.

I think that should be remembered, because the same is probably true in front offices in the MLB. You'll find some people who like him and thus should not be treated as a scrap trade piece, but there are probably some that totally don't value his skillset. He has trade value, as it really only takes a few bidders, but I do think that there are teams out there, and the Jays could very well be included where there would be very little interest in a player such as EE.

RED VAN HOT
07-10-2009, 09:11 PM
Then you just don't include EE in the deal? EE is not somebody the Reds need to desperatley trying to deal. It's not like he is a clubhouse cancer or is eating up a truckload of money. This makes no sense.

OK, I will try again.

OBM reported (from Hal McCoy's blog) that the Jays were not interested in EE. Instead, they wanted prospects. I tried to make a point that for the money to work, the Jays needed to take EE's contract which will pay $4.75M next year. That would effectively reduce the cost of Rolen to around $4.5M for '09 and $6.25M for '10. I also argued that if the Jays did not take EE in the trade, the Reds would have no place to play him. The choices would be to carry him as a bench player, move him to LF, trade him, or eat his salary. Since the Jays want prospects, I suggested that the Reds include one with EE. That could make it work. There is no imperative to have someone take EE off our hands at any cost. Nor was it my intent to demean EE in the process. I was simply looking for a way to make the swap work from a financial standpoint, since that seems to be the big sticking point.

reds44
07-10-2009, 09:11 PM
I think it's pretty clear that EE has a wider view of opinions than really about anyone this side of Homer Bailey out there.

I think that should be remembered, because the same is probably true in front offices in the MLB. You'll find some people who like him, and some that totally don't value his skillset. He has trade value, as it really only takes a few bidders, but I do think that there are teams out there, and the Jays could very well be included where there would be very little interest in a player such as EE.
I don't care what you think about EE as a player, he's not a guy who you are going to sweeten a deal for the other team to take him off your hands. That's not logical.

reds44
07-10-2009, 09:12 PM
OK, I will try again.

OBM reported (from Hal McCoy's blog) that the Jays were not interested in EE. Instead, they wanted prospects. I tried to make a point that for the money to work, the Jays needed to take EE's contract which will pay $4.75M next year. That would effectively reduce the cost of Rolen to around $4.5M for '09 and $6.25M for '10. I also argued that if the Jays did not take EE in the trade, the Reds would have no place to play him. The choices would be to carry him as a bench player, move him to LF, trade him, or eat his salary. Since the Jays want prospects, I suggested that the Reds include one with EE. That could make it work. There is no imperative to have someone take EE off our hands at any cost. Nor was it my intent to demean EE in the process. I was simply looking for a way to make the swap work from a financial standpoint, since that seems to be the big sticking point.
I must have missed that, my fault. Not saying I agree with it, but definatley much more logical and I can see your point.

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 09:12 PM
I don't care what you think about EE as a player, he's not a guy who you are going to sweeten a deal for the other team to take him off your hands. That's not logical.

I agree, and actually updated my post a little bit while you were posting to reflect that.

In my post I was agreeing with that point, but at the same time, I think there are a lot of front offices who would have absolutely no interest in acquiring him as a major trading return.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 09:24 PM
You'll find some people who like him and thus should not be treated as a scrap trade piece, but there are probably some that totally don't value his skillset.

Yes, a team that is missing offense and has a number of open positions. (I'm thinking the Giants).

Benihana
07-11-2009, 06:55 PM
Yonder Alonso, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, and either Stubbs or Heisey

for

Roy Halladay and Scott Rolen.

Who hangs up first?

mth123
07-11-2009, 07:01 PM
Yonder Alonso, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Encarnacion, and either Stubbs or Heisey

for

Roy Halladay and Scott Rolen.

Who hangs up first?

The Reds. Too much future talent for rental players. Don't mind giving up Stubbs or EdE, but Alonso and Bailey don't go for rentals.

Benihana
07-11-2009, 07:12 PM
The Reds. Too much future talent for rental players. Don't mind giving up Stubbs or EdE, but Alonso and Bailey don't go for rentals.

Maybe, although both Rolen and Halladay are signed through 2010, giving the Reds a 2 year window to really go for it all.

After that, you still have Frazier/Francisco to step in at 3B and Stewart/Wood/Leake to step into the rotation.

You also still have Cozart for SS and either Stubbs or Heisey for CF.

Not saying I would do it, just something interesting to think about...

mth123
07-11-2009, 07:23 PM
Maybe, although both Rolen and Halladay are signed through 2010, giving the Reds a 2 year window to really go for it all.

After that, you still have Frazier/Francisco to step in at 3B and Stewart/Wood/Leake to step into the rotation.

You also still have Cozart for SS and either Stubbs or Heisey for CF.

Not saying I would do it, just something interesting to think about...

Halladay probably opts out unless he gets something to waive that right.

I(heart)Freel
07-11-2009, 08:08 PM
Back to the Rolen rumor, ESPN has it listed as "debunked" but I cant read the details since it's Insider content.

TheNext44
07-11-2009, 11:01 PM
Back to the Rolen rumor, ESPN has it listed as "debunked" but I cant read the details since it's Insider content.

I'll try not to post anything that is considered "paid" content.

The "debunked" post is old. It is based on Hal's earlier blog about the deal not being for EE.

It says nothing about the new rumor of Rolen for prospects.

RED VAN HOT
07-11-2009, 11:44 PM
I'll try not to post anything that is considered "paid" content.

The "debunked" post is old. It is based on Hal's earlier blog about the deal not being for EE.

It says nothing about the new rumor of Rolen for prospects.

The prospects rumor really has me worried. If the Reds eat Rolen's salary, keep EE and give up one of Heisey, Bailey, or Wood, it would be the worst trade in recent memory. I would interpret it as mortgaging the future for only a slight improvement in playoff chances. With Bruce going down today, it would make even less sense to give up Heisey. Heisey did not as much as pinch hit in a close game tonight. If he doesn't start tomorrow, I will be very worried.

reds44
07-11-2009, 11:48 PM
The prospects rumor really has me worried. If the Reds eat Rolen's salary, keep EE and give up one of Heisey, Bailey, or Wood, it would be the worst trade in recent memory. I would interpret it as mortgaging the future for only a slight improvement in playoff chances. With Bruce going down today, it would make even less sense to give up Heisey. Heisey did not as much as pinch hit in a close game tonight. If he doesn't start tomorrow, I will be very worried.
I'm not sure how it makes less sense, to me it makes more sense. First of all, I don't see how anybody can lose any sleep about giving up Heisey. With him, Stubbs, and Dickerson at least one of them isn't going to be around. I really doubt the Reds are going to give up Homer in any deal right now. If the Reds were to acquire Rolen and keep EE, EE goes to LF and Rolen goes to 3rd base. Seems to make perfect sense.

RED VAN HOT
07-12-2009, 12:31 AM
I'm not sure how it makes less sense, to me it makes more sense. First of all, I don't see how anybody can lose any sleep about giving up Heisey. With him, Stubbs, and Dickerson at least one of them isn't going to be around. I really doubt the Reds are going to give up Homer in any deal right now. If the Reds were to acquire Rolen and keep EE, EE goes to LF and Rolen goes to 3rd base. Seems to make perfect sense.

I take issue with your points. First of all, I see no reason why the Reds can't keep Heisey, Stubbs, and Dickerson. Dickerson and Heisey can play left and Heisey can spell Bruce (next year) in right. That would give the Reds versatile left/right hitting combinations with defense, speed, and some power. I think Gomes and Nix are more likely to be gone next year.

I can't find any record of EE ever having played a regulation game in left field. Why would we want to put him there in a pennant race? Is there any reason to believe he would be better in LF than at 3B where his defense has been a weak point for some time? Further, unless his LF defense were sterling, his offense, would not likely be sufficient to overcome it. It's not like putting Manny out there. I think a Gomes/Nix platoon would be better. EE would be taking a roster spot with no place to play. Yet, I am sure the Reds would keep putting him out there with Taveras, hoping that each gets better. Further, taking on Rolen's salary works much better if the Reds also shed salary. Otherwise, the Reds run the risk of being hamstrung for the next year and half by Rolen's salary. No roster flexibility. I suspect the free agent market this year might be interesting. In this market, teams are going to be reluctant to offer arbitration.

GIDP informed me that Heisey is in St Louis for the futures game, so I guess my concern there was unfounded.

Jpup
07-12-2009, 02:19 AM
I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

reds44
07-12-2009, 02:23 AM
I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.
Yep, for example EE is 26 and Heisey is 24.

Jpup
07-12-2009, 02:26 AM
Yep, for example EE is 26 and Heisey is 24.

People don't like Edwin because he makes errors throwing the ball. I hate that as well, but I haven't heard those same folks complaining about Hairston. Move Edwin to left or right, if you wish, but he's got good range at third and seems to be fine over there so far this year.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 02:37 AM
I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

Well, I think it's a good bet that EE will have a more productive career than most Reds prospects not named Alonso, since the odds are that most prospects will not pan out. Either due to injury, inability to adjust to the majors or lack of talent that get's exposed.

With EE, we know we will get around . 800 OPS and below average fielding at third, which translate to roughly a league average thirdbaseman. A very nice commodity to have.

However...

I also think that it's a good bet that between Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Dorn, Wood, Lotzkar, Stewart, Valaika, Soto, and Francisco, at least two will end up as better than league average players.

So in terms of trading, I would rather trade EE, who we know is an okay player, then risk trading away one of the ones that becomes a very good player.

cincrazy
07-12-2009, 02:42 AM
I don't think it's so simple as moving Edwin to left and putting Rolen at third. First of all, we have no idea whether EE would agree to this switch or whether he'd throw a Soriano like temper tantrum. And would it really make this team that much better? Lets not forget that EE has truly been one of the worst hitters in the league so far this year. Looking at his track record is great, but that doesn't mean he's going to do squat for us the rest of the year, whether he's in left or third. I hope he starts to hit as he's done in the past. But I'm not optimistic in the least.

Jpup
07-12-2009, 02:46 AM
Well, I think it's a good bet that EE will have a more productive career than most Reds prospects not named Alonso, since the odds are that most prospects will not pan out. Either due to injury, inability to adjust to the majors or lack of talent that get's exposed.

With EE, we know we will get around . 800 OPS and below average fielding at third, which translate to roughly a league average thirdbaseman. A very nice commodity to have.

However...

I also think that it's a good bet that between Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Dorn, Wood, Lotzkar, Stewart, Valaika, Soto, and Francisco, at least two will end up as better than league average players.

So in terms of trading, I would rather trade EE, who we know is an okay player, then risk trading away one of the ones that becomes a very good player.

Dorn? He has been terrible at Louisville and he's old in comparison to the others. Dorn is already 25. Edwin is 26. His bat doesn't play anywhere. Dorn is lucky to still have a job.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 03:25 AM
Dorn? He has been terrible at Louisville and he's old in comparison to the others. Dorn is already 25. Edwin is 26. His bat doesn't play anywhere. Dorn is lucky to still have a job.

Then take him out and I still stand by my prediction.

Just 25% of those 8 top prospects need to become better than EE for it come true. It's not about the prospects, it's about the odds.

Caveat Emperor
07-12-2009, 04:16 AM
I think I would rather have Edwin than Stubbs, Heisey, Wood, or any other Reds farm hand not named Alonso. I think a lot of folks see too much in the Reds farm system. I see very little fruit being valuable to the Reds anytime soon.

At least Stubbs and Heisey have a position they can defend effectively -- can't say that about Edwin "FedEx Arm" Encarnacion.

reds44
07-12-2009, 05:12 AM
At least Stubbs and Heisey have a position they can defend effectively -- can't say that about Edwin "FedEx Arm" Encarnacion.
Juan Castro can defend too.

Will M
07-12-2009, 09:27 AM
Reds trade prospects for Rolen. Reds take on all his salary thereby reducing the cost in prospects.

Reds trade EE for Maicer Izturis to play SS. Izturis is on the bench in LA. LA needs a DH with Vlad out.

Reds call up Heissey to replace Bruce.

Reds DFA Willy T.

Will passes out from excitement.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 11:15 AM
Juan Castro can defend too.

You make a good point.

Castro can (could) field, can't hit.

EE can hit, can't field.

Neither should be playing everyday.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 12:44 PM
Juan Castro can defend too.

No he can't. He had no marketable skill.

Rojo
07-13-2009, 03:18 PM
Juan Castro can defend too.

Canard.

I think we can agree that there needs to be minimum threshold for defense. Teams don't just sign a bunch of sluggers and spread them around the field satisfied that all that offense makes up for no defense.

So the argument isn't whether EE's offense makes up for his defense, its whether he meets a defensive threshold.

Or, maybe you're right, and his offense does make up for defense where it counts -- winning games. But you'll have a hard time convincing other people in the game. And they set the market.