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View Full Version : Reds' major problems at mid-season



Kc61
07-10-2009, 09:47 AM
The Reds are improved this year, but let's try and focus in on the specific problem or problems that are causing the team to be slightly worse than .500. I post team stats every ten games, not repeating the stats here, but others should feel free to do so.

Here's my breakdown so far.

Bullpen -- A. Not A plus, but one of the best in the league. Like all areas can do better but has been the strength of the team. (I'm sure 22-1 debacle didn't help pen ERA with Janish pitching, so stats don't tell full story.) Dusty needs to continue to watch usage. I think some guys (Herrera?) may be wearing down a bit.

Defense -- B+. Too many errors. Left side of the infield questionable with Gonzo out. When Gomes plays LF is not a good defensive spot. But generally the outfield is light years better than previous seasons and the defense has been solid or better.

Starting pitching -- B-. Middle of the pack for NL is an improvement. Cueto and Harang have been very good. Owings good for fifth starter. Arroyo has faded badly. Bailey very promising. When Volquez returns, if healthy, could improve this area. Pretty good depth and young guys with great promise.

Offense -- D. First base and second base strong. Third base acceptable if EE plays up to norms. Catcher improved. SS Hairston OK stopgap, obviously team has a hole at that position. OF offense horrendous.

Bench -- B-. Haven't looked at stats but generally satisfied. Hanigan gets an A for his bench performance. Janish has been as advertised defensively. Gomes good offensively. Hairston has helped much with versatility. Dickerson patient hitter with speed and defense. Nix ok but has faded. Overall, versatile group has done well.

The obvious major problems are getting Bruce on track offensively; Taveras' hitting as lead off man; the lack of a true starting left fielder with a bat; and Arroyo's recent pitching slump. IMO these need to be addressed for team to improve.

Strikes Out Looking
07-10-2009, 10:38 AM
Manager/Coaches: C- They get an A for gaining handling the young players such as Votto and Bruce and not letting them get overwhelmed. They get an F for preparation and tactics.

flyer85
07-10-2009, 10:40 AM
sure looks like there is possibly a good answer to the CF and leadoff issue bashing away in AAA. God forbid a GM actually admit a mistake ... even though it has long been obvious to everyone.

Kc61
07-10-2009, 11:14 AM
sure looks like there is possibly a good answer to the CF and leadoff issue bashing away in AAA. God forbid a GM actually admit a mistake ... even though it has long been obvious to everyone.

Yes. One bold approach would be to send Bruce and Taveras to AAA for awhile. I don't know why this should be considered off-limits. They both need work right now.

Bring up Stubbs and Heisey. Platoon Stubbs in CF with Dickerson. Put Heisey in RF full time for awhile. Look for a trade for LF, but until then use Nix/Gomes in LF.

I would then install Dickerson/Stubbs as the leadoff guy and Heisey as the number two. This hopefully will help the OBP part of the problem at the top of the order.

Then they need to get a bat for LF to help the middle of the order.

This scenario helps the offense and shouldn't hurt the defense because Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey are no slouches in the outfield defensively.

nate
07-10-2009, 11:20 AM
I'd say:

Defense: A

Bullpen: B

Starting pitching: C-

Offense: F

I'd further say that if it weren't for the defense, all pitching grades would be down one notch.

Benihana
07-10-2009, 11:33 AM
Yes. One bold approach would be to send Bruce and Taveras to AAA for awhile. I don't know why this should be considered off-limits. They both need work right now.

Bring up Stubbs and Heisey. Platoon Stubbs in CF with Dickerson. Put Heisey in RF full time for awhile. Look for a trade for LF, but until then use Nix/Gomes in LF.

I would then install Dickerson/Stubbs as the leadoff guy and Heisey as the number two. This hopefully will help the OBP part of the problem at the top of the order.

Then they need to get a bat for LF to help the middle of the order.

This scenario helps the offense and shouldn't hurt the defense because Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey are no slouches in the outfield defensively.

That would be bold.

I'd prefer that they trade for Elijah Dukes, who's fallen out of favor in Washington and is currently toiling away in the minor leagues, and thus wouldn't cost much in terms of talent. The Nats may even take Taveras as part of the return (if the Reds picked up his salary.) Beyond that, it may cost a guy like Matt Maloney. Platoon Dukes with Bruce in RF. That way, Bruce could still work on hitting major league pitching, but do so without worrying about facing his dreaded lefties.

Let Dickerson play CF full time for a couple of weeks. If he falters (or struggles mightily against lefties) then call up Stubbs in August and platoon him with CD. I like that Stubbs is finally gaining experience in the leadoff position in Louisville. I'd give him another couple of weeks at least to continue doing so.

Assuming no major sell-offs/acquisitions at the deadline, continue to platoon Gomes and Nix in LF. If Dukes really comes alive, move him over to LF full time, and platoon Gomes with Bruce in RF. Dukes is much better defensively than Gomes and has more upside with the stick. Nix becomes 4th OF/LH bat off the bench.

membengal
07-10-2009, 11:36 AM
Yes. One bold approach would be to send Bruce and Taveras to AAA for awhile. I don't know why this should be considered off-limits. They both need work right now.

Bring up Stubbs and Heisey. Platoon Stubbs in CF with Dickerson. Put Heisey in RF full time for awhile. Look for a trade for LF, but until then use Nix/Gomes in LF.

I would then install Dickerson/Stubbs as the leadoff guy and Heisey as the number two. This hopefully will help the OBP part of the problem at the top of the order.

Then they need to get a bat for LF to help the middle of the order.

This scenario helps the offense and shouldn't hurt the defense because Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey are no slouches in the outfield defensively.

This is a really fun plan. Co-sign.

flyer85
07-10-2009, 11:37 AM
IMO, Dukes simply has too much baggage, he would be a distraction.

redsfandan
07-10-2009, 12:13 PM
I wasn't sure what to do with the info I looked up but this is as good a place as any to put it.

The Reds are improved this year, but let's try and focus in on the specific problem or problems that are causing the team to be slightly worse than .500. ...
They had a 31-27 record after 6/10.
They are 10-16 in the last 26 games since 6/10.
In 13 of those 26 games the starter wasn't able to last 6 full innings.
The starters accumulated 139.2 ip over those last 26 games.
That's roughly 5.1 innings per start.

6/11 owings 5.1 ip loss
6/12 maloney 6.0 loss
6/13 arroyo 5.0 loss
6/14 cueto 6.0 loss
6/16 harang 2.0 win
6/17 owings 6.0 win

6/18 maloney 5.2 loss
6/19 arroyo 6.2 win
6/20 cueto 4.2 loss
6/21 harang 7.0 loss
6/23 owings 5.2 loss
6/24 arroyo 3.2 loss
6/25 cueto 6.0 win

6/26 harang 4.2 loss
6/27 bailey 5.0 win
6/28 owings 6.0 win
6/30 arroyo 5.1 loss
7/1 cueto 6.0 win
7/2 harang 7.0 win
7/3 bailey 7.1 loss

7/4 owings 6.2 win
7/5 arroyo 5.0 loss
7/6 cueto 0.2 loss
7/7 harang 6.0 win
7/8 bailey 6.0 loss
7/9 owings 4.1 loss

"Hello all-star break, nice to meet ya." - the bullpen :(

Marc D
07-10-2009, 12:24 PM
That would be bold.

I'd prefer that they trade for Elijah Dukes, who's fallen out of favor in Washington and is currently toiling away in the minor leagues, and thus wouldn't cost much in terms of talent. The Nats may even take Taveras as part of the return (if the Reds picked up his salary.) Beyond that, it may cost a guy like Matt Maloney. Platoon Dukes with Bruce in RF. That way, Bruce could still work on hitting major league pitching, but do so without worrying about facing his dreaded lefties.

Let Dickerson play CF full time for a couple of weeks. If he falters (or struggles mightily against lefties) then call up Stubbs in August and platoon him with CD. I like that Stubbs is finally gaining experience in the leadoff position in Louisville. I'd give him another couple of weeks at least to continue doing so.

Assuming no major sell-offs/acquisitions at the deadline, continue to platoon Gomes and Nix in LF. If Dukes really comes alive, move him over to LF full time, and platoon Gomes with Bruce in RF. Dukes is much better defensively than Gomes and has more upside with the stick. Nix becomes 4th OF/LH bat off the bench.


I like the Dukes idea. His baggage is obviously a concern but it would also keep the price down.

Only thing I'd do differently is not platoon them. My OF would be Dukes 7, Stubbs/Dickerson 8, Bruce 9 come hell or high water. I don't think Dukes or Bruce have anything left to learn in AAA.

2009 production might not be a whole lot better but the youth/talent/potential of that OF is worth a flier imo.

jojo
07-10-2009, 01:17 PM
They need more pitching, more defense, and more offense.

PuffyPig
07-10-2009, 01:26 PM
Our Defensive Efficiency rating is .704, in 7th place in the majors. We were 2nd about a week ago, the 22-1 game killed us a bit.

I'd give the defense an A- at worst, because they are doing what they are supposed to do, turning balls hit into play into outs.

PuffyPig
07-10-2009, 01:28 PM
Yes. One bold approach would be to send Bruce and Taveras to AAA for awhile. I don't know why this should be considered off-limits.

One reason might be that Taveras can't be sent to the minors without his permission.

redsmetz
07-10-2009, 01:42 PM
One reason might be that Taveras can't be sent to the minors without his permission.

Actually I'm not sure he has reached that point. According to Cot's, he only has 4.028 years of service. I found this bit from Wikipedia about MLB Transactions.

If a player has 5 years of major-league service, he may not be assigned to a minor-league team without his consent, regardless of whether he has already been outrighted once, even if he clears waivers. If the player withholds consent, the team must either release him or keep him on the major league roster. In either case, the player must continue to be paid under the terms of his contract. If he is released and signs with a new team, his previous team must pay the difference in salary between the two contracts if the previous contract called for a greater salary.

I think he is not in that category, but he has played more than five professional seasons, so I think he would have to be waived, although that isn't completely clear to me from this explanation of options:

If a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the active major league roster, he is said to be on optional assignment—his organization may freely move him between the major league club and the minor league club. If a player is on the 40-man roster and not the active 25 man roster for any part of more than three seasons (in which he spent 20 or more total days of service in the minors), he is out of options and may not be assigned to the minors without first clearing waivers. However, if a player has less than 5 years of professional experience, he may be optioned to the minors in a fourth season without being subject to waivers. If a major league player is ineligible for free agency and "has options" remaining, his team may option him to a minor league team without consequence. This is usually what is meant when players are "sent down" to the minors. Likewise, when a player on the 40-man roster is added to the active major league roster, he is "called up" to the majors.

What's causing my hesitation is that I'm not sure that Taveras has reached the place where he's eligible for Free Agency. We picked him up after he was waived and given his release. I don't know enough there to say for sure.

Of course if we place him on waivers and someone claims him, let them have him, IMO. But I think it's possible we could still send him to the minors without his permission, at least for this year.

Will M
07-10-2009, 01:57 PM
The Reds are 2 acquisitions plus a lot of IFs to be 2009 contenders.

SP:
Cueto
Harang
Volquez (if healthy)
Bailey (if he keeps it up)
Owings/Arroyo
Overall not too shabby if Volquez and Bailey pitch well the 2nd half.
Actually we are 2 big IFs away from a really good 1-2-3-4.

Then pen has been a strength. Burton was sent to AAA despite turning it around. Seems we could deal an arm to help elsewhere. Yes i know we have had some stinkers lately out of the pen but overall we are solid and deep.

Catcher, 1B & 2B are fine.
We can piece together one outfielder with a Bruce/Gomes platoon.
CF is ok with Dickerson (maybe Hairston vs some LHP).
3B is another big if.
SS & the other corner OF spot are giant holes.

So...
IF Volquez is healthy.
IF Bailey continues to pitch well.
IF Edwin can hit like he has prior to 2009.
AND we go out and get another outfielder.
AND we go out and get a SS.
Then we can make some noise this year.

IMO this is a lot of IFs and acquisitions.
Therefore I hope any moves we make are not for a rental player but are made for 2010 and beyond. if they help this year great but improving the team long term would be my hope.

redsfandan
07-10-2009, 02:08 PM
Catcher, 1B & 2B are fine.
We can piece together one outfielder with a Bruce/Gomes platoon.
CF is ok with Dickerson (maybe Hairston vs some LHP).
3B is another big if.
SS & the other corner OF spot are giant holes.
You don't mean right field. Do ya?

Reds1
07-10-2009, 02:28 PM
I wasn't sure what to do with the info I looked up but this is as good a place as any to put it.

They had a 31-27 record after 6/10.
They are 10-16 in the last 26 games since 6/10.
In 13 of those 26 games the starter wasn't able to last 6 full innings.
The starters accumulated 139.2 ip over those last 26 games.
That's roughly 5.1 innings per start.

6/11 owings 5.1 ip loss
6/12 maloney 6.0 loss
6/13 arroyo 5.0 loss
6/14 cueto 6.0 loss
6/16 harang 2.0 win
6/17 owings 6.0 win

6/18 maloney 5.2 loss
6/19 arroyo 6.2 win
6/20 cueto 4.2 loss
6/21 harang 7.0 loss
6/23 owings 5.2 loss
6/24 arroyo 3.2 loss
6/25 cueto 6.0 win

6/26 harang 4.2 loss
6/27 bailey 5.0 win
6/28 owings 6.0 win
6/30 arroyo 5.1 loss
7/1 cueto 6.0 win
7/2 harang 7.0 win
7/3 bailey 7.1 loss

7/4 owings 6.2 win
7/5 arroyo 5.0 loss
7/6 cueto 0.2 loss
7/7 harang 6.0 win
7/8 bailey 6.0 loss
7/9 owings 4.1 loss

"Hello all-star break, nice to meet ya." - the bullpen :(

Great post. Face it Volquez going out hurt us and now Arroyo and Cueto struggling. Starting pitching has not helped this dismal offense. But, we still seem to be in game after game. I think it's a good sign because we are close to .500 with injuries and bad offense. I say room to improve and Volquez alone improves the pitching. More Dickerson and less Taverez good too, but I will say Taverez has made some plays not sure anyone else does.

Will M
07-10-2009, 03:49 PM
You don't mean right field. Do ya?

what i am saying is that if we want to win in 2009 Bruce sits vs LHP.
Bruce vs RHP and Gomes vs LHP covers one corner OF spot.
Dickerson (maybe with Hairston vs some LHP) covers CF.
That leaves one corner OF spot vacant.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 04:50 PM
Hard to grade starting pitching right now.

The DER is encouraging. Obviously most of the improvement over last year is in the outfield.

But I check in on it from time-to-time and it's been higher. I'm wondering if it zenithed when Gonzalez and Rosales were playing. It would be interesting to see it by month.

Caveat Emperor
07-10-2009, 05:01 PM
On-Base Percentage:

Jerry Hairston Jr: .311
Paul Janish: .306
Laynce Nix: .301
Edwin Encarnacion: .293
Willy Taveras: .286
Jay Bruce: .284
Alex Gonzalez: .256

Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

SirFelixCat
07-10-2009, 05:18 PM
On-Base Percentage:

Jerry Hairston Jr: .311
Paul Janish: .306
Laynce Nix: .301
Edwin Encarnacion: .293
Willy Taveras: .286
Jay Bruce: .284
Alex Gonzalez: .256

Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

Yuppers. I will also agree that the SP, of late (read: since Volquez went down) is also killing the team. But the offense has been pretty putrid from day 1.

top6
07-10-2009, 05:23 PM
On-Base Percentage:

Jerry Hairston Jr: .311
Paul Janish: .306
Laynce Nix: .301
Edwin Encarnacion: .293
Willy Taveras: .286
Jay Bruce: .284
Alex Gonzalez: .256

Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

Not enough heart?

jojo
07-10-2009, 06:31 PM
Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

Well at least base cloggage isn't forcing Dusty to manage out of his comfort zone.... :cool:

Ltlabner
07-10-2009, 06:37 PM
Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

They aren't playing the game the way it's supposed to be played?

Falls City Beer
07-10-2009, 06:53 PM
Walt signed Chris Carpenter to pitch for the Cardinals not the Reds. Big problem.

Stormy
07-10-2009, 08:41 PM
Walt signed Chris Carpenter to pitch for the Cardinals not the Reds. Big problem.

It's fairly self-evident that the NL's second worst scoring offense, fuelled by the aforementioned OBP-averse roster, is a more significant factor than the NL's 7th ranked pitching staff (despite playing half their games in a park that inflates offense and undermines pitching acumen).

PS: Walt signing players whose positional superiors were already on the roster, while ignoring areas of major need, is the primary culprit for the underperforming offense and the somewhat waning pitching.

membengal
07-10-2009, 08:54 PM
It's fairly self-evident that the NL's second worst scoring offense, fuelled by the aforementioned OBP-averse roster, is a more significant factor than the NL's 7th ranked pitching staff (despite playing half their games in a park that inflates offense and undermines pitching acumen).

PS: Walt signing players whose positional superiors were already on the roster, while ignoring areas of major need, is the primary culprit for the underperforming offense and the somewhat waning pitching.

golf clap

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 08:58 PM
It's fairly self-evident that the NL's second worst scoring offense, fuelled by the aforementioned OBP-averse roster, is a more significant factor than the NL's 7th ranked pitching staff (despite playing half their games in a park that inflates offense and undermines pitching acumen).

PS: Walt signing players whose positional superiors were already on the roster, while ignoring areas of major need, is the primary culprit for the underperforming offense and the somewhat waning pitching.

Totally. We have some okay superficial power numbers thanks to the park, but make no mistake, this offense is very, very bad.

I do think that FCB was dead on correct in being weary of the pitching staff on paper, when many posters, including me, who thought the pitching staff would be better than it has, but there's absoutely no way around the point that the offense is completely null of any kind of cache.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 08:59 PM
It's fairly self-evident that the NL's second worst scoring offense, fuelled by the aforementioned OBP-averse roster, is a more significant factor than the NL's 7th ranked pitching staff (despite playing half their games in a park that inflates offense and undermines pitching acumen).

PS: Walt signing players whose positional superiors were already on the roster, while ignoring areas of major need, is the primary culprit for the underperforming offense and the somewhat waning pitching.


Somebody's been taking extra logic practise.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 09:01 PM
I do think that FCB was dead on correct in being weary of the pitching staff on paper

You can be leary about any teams' pitching staff and usually be right. The Redsox gave the ball to John Smoltz, Brett Tomko is on the Yankees roster.

Healthy, the staff is pretty good with some in-house depth. The hitting -- she stinks!

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 09:07 PM
You can be leary about any teams' pitching staff and usually be right. The Redsox gave the ball to John Smoltz, Brett Tomko is on the Yankees roster.

Healthy, the staff is pretty good with some in-house depth. The hitting -- she stinks!

You know, you are totally right on that point, but I (and I could be incorrect here) believe that FCB really hasn't suggested anything more than that. But then again, I think that here on Redszone, the number one thing that we've missed on is the starting pitching. I think as a whole, more was expected. I know that Volquez got injured, but that does happen, and I think that of any spot on the roster, depth is most important in the rotation, because it does happen, and he was prettay terrible before he got injured anyways.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 09:21 PM
You know, you are totally right on that point, but I (and I could be incorrect here) believe that FCB really hasn't suggested anything more than that. But then again, I think that here on Redszone, the number one thing that we've missed on is the starting pitching. I think as a whole, more was expected. I know that Volquez got injured, but that does happen, and I think that of any spot on the roster, depth is most important in the rotation, because it does happen, and he was prettay terrible before he got injured anyways.

I'm missing the actionable part here. Should we have found more starters "just in case"?

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 09:24 PM
I'm missing the actionable part here. Should we have found more starters "just in case"?

I think my main point here is that "just in case" in a lot of situations is actually a pretty probable occurence, and that's why just looking at the top 5 may not be enough. The other point would be that the limited success of picthers such as Volquez is probably not as important regarding the future as that of a hitter like Votto. There are obviously like a bajillion exceptions that, but I do think there is a point to that.

Rojo
07-10-2009, 09:27 PM
I think my main point here is that "just in case" in a lot of situations is actually a pretty probable occurence, and that's why just looking at the top 5 may not be enough. The other point would be that the limited success of picthers such as Volquez is probably not as important regarding the future as that of a hitter like Votto. There are obviously like a bajillion exceptions that, but I do think there is a point to that.


Still not getting it. As I mentioned with the Yanks and Redsox, not many teams are beyond five deep on their rotation, unless you can't cuspy kids(which we have three) and AAA vets (like Lehr).

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2009, 09:34 PM
Still not getting it. As I mentioned with the Yanks and Redsox, not many teams are beyond five deep on their rotation, unless you can't cuspy kids(which we have three) and AAA vets (like Lehr).

Well it obviously depends on who your 5 are. Not many would have predicted Arroyo to be complete dreck this year, so I guess it depends how much you would have been bought into his late season success. I don't think it was shocking to see Volquez get injured.

I totally see where your coming from, and for the record, I'm backtracking a little bit here, but I do think there is a point to consider based on how the current state of our starters vs. the predicted state of our pitchers. I'm not sure the exact reason, but I think it's worth exploring.

Caveat Emperor
07-10-2009, 11:57 PM
Walt signed Chris Carpenter to pitch for the Cardinals not the Reds. Big problem.

Walt didn't manage to take Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa with him when he left St. Louis. Bigger problem.

Chris Carpenter is an interchangeable part in the Cardinals pitching machine. If his arm fell off tomorrow, they'd trade for someone who was underperforming elsewhere and have him throwing 3.90-4.10 ERA ball the rest of the way out. That's just how they do things -- they take turds like Joel Pinero and Kyle Lohse and make serviceable pitchers out of them.

WVRedsFan
07-11-2009, 01:11 AM
Late to the party. What else is new?

Starting Pitching - B - Very good. How long has it been since you can be confident in Reds pitching? Too long.

Relief Pitching - A - - No complaints. Stellar, een if David Weathers is part of the mix. I do thing DRH is about over, but that will probably be evident soon.

Defense - B - Better than what we've had, but any infield that includes EE and JHJ is suspect at best. First and second are good, shortstop and third are not so good. The outfield is better, but Taveras is not that good of a defender and Dickerson is not all that. Still rates a good.

Offense - F - Frequently, Dusty has Taveras and Hairston, two low OBP guys leading off which usually results in 2 outs before you get started. That brings Votto, who dominates the offense, with nothing to do but hit a homer. Shameful. Then, Phillips, who is very impatient, follows him and usually leads off the next inning. Add in the streaky EE Nix or Gomes, and the young Bruce and you get quick outs. Nix or Gomes occasionally get hits, but even at .330, it's only one of three times. End it with Hernandez or Hannigan and you have a dysfunctional offense.

I would do the following (and remember, I'm just a layman who loves the Reds and baseball--not an expert). Get a shortstop. Trade EE for someting offensive. Get a real MLB outfielder to play left. Play Dickerson or get another MLB outfielder to play center. Send Bruce back to AAA to learn that what he needs to do (sorry, but the kid will flounder if he stays up and be ruined. I don't want to see this happen to him). What is happening is not working. Time to make some changes.

We'll either finish 3 over .500, One over .500 or two under .500 for the first half. Only in 2006 was it better. This is a much better team, but doesn't show it. Time to makes some positive moves and not be so frugal. Remind Bob C and Walt that you have to spend money to make money.

mth123
07-11-2009, 03:55 AM
It's fairly self-evident that the NL's second worst scoring offense, fuelled by the aforementioned OBP-averse roster, is a more significant factor than the NL's 7th ranked pitching staff (despite playing half their games in a park that inflates offense and undermines pitching acumen).

PS: Walt signing players whose positional superiors were already on the roster, while ignoring areas of major need, is the primary culprit for the underperforming offense and the somewhat waning pitching.

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 09:07 AM
It's pretty simple: in the course of the next couple of seasons the in-house offensive players will fill out the roster very well and will provide almost everything the Reds need cheaply (minus SS). The pitching after this current batch is a shambles, however, and the current pitching is expensive and ineffective in some cases or is highly suspect from a health standpoint (Cueto/Volquez). And let's face it: 7th in the NL is no great shakes. There's room for improvement there.

lollipopcurve
07-11-2009, 09:17 AM
The pitching after this current batch is a shambles,

Not seeing what you mean here. The team's young starters look strong, and there's a few guys in the minors (let's include Leake) with potential. If you compared how the Reds' starting staff projects vs. other teams, I think you'd be a lot less pessimistic about it.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 09:20 AM
Not seeing what you mean here. The team's young starters look strong, and there's a few guys in the minors (let's include Leake) with potential. If you compared how the Reds' starting staff projects vs. other teams, I think you'd be a lot less pessimistic about it.

Remember how everyone joked about Brian Sabean--claiming he was a joke of a GM; had gotten lucky with Bonds? I want what they got. Young pitchers actually doing it; not sort of kind of doing it.

Does anyone even know what's wrong with Volquez or where he is?

jojo
07-11-2009, 09:35 AM
Remember how everyone joked about Brian Sabean--claiming he was a joke of a GM; had gotten lucky with Bonds? I want what they got.

I'm sure Sabean would entertain trading 3/5 of his rotation (Zito, Johnson, and Sanchez)......

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 09:39 AM
I'm sure Sabean would entertain trading 3/5 of his rotation (Zito, Johnson, and Sanchez)......

Why would he trade Sanchez, a 26 year old arm who has a K/9 of 9?

Homer Bailey
07-11-2009, 09:41 AM
Why would he trade Sanchez, a 26 year old arm who has a K/9 of 9?

Care to post his walk rate?

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 09:41 AM
Care to post his walk rate?

Care to post Volquez's?

See this is exactly what I'm talking about: the homerist viewpoint sees a problematic walk rate in the opposing team's pitcher, but assumes an equally troubling walk rate in a pitcher like Volquez as something that will improve. Well, Sanchez just threw a no-hitter last night; what's Volquez done?

There's potential, and then there's performance. Other teams--winning teams--figure out some way, somehow how to get the latter; this organization loves talking about the former.

Homer Bailey
07-11-2009, 09:55 AM
Care to post Volquez's?

See this is exactly what I'm talking about: the homerist viewpoint sees a problematic walk rate in the opposing team's pitcher, but assumes an equally troubling walk rate in a pitcher like Volquez as something that will improve. Well, Sanchez just threw a no-hitter last night; what's Volquez done?

There's potential, and then there's performance. Other teams--winning teams--figure out some way, somehow how to get the latter; this organization loves talking about the former.


Volquez has an ERA+ of 131 the last two years while Sanchez has an ERA+ of 86. And he turns 27 in the fall. What's Volquez done? Are you serious? 17 wins last year with an ERA of 3.21. What has Sanchez done?????

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 09:58 AM
Volquez has an ERA+ of 131 the last two years while Sanchez has an ERA+ of 86. And he turns 27 in the fall. What's Volquez done? Are you serious? 17 wins last year with an ERA of 3.21. What has Sanchez done?????

Volquez was excellent last season, but he's been an unmitigated disaster this season. What have you done for me lately? OOOO--yeah!

Homer Bailey
07-11-2009, 10:12 AM
Volquez was excellent last season, but he's been an unmitigated disaster this season. What have you done for me lately? OOOO--yeah!

I'm hoping, for your sake, that you are kidding, but I'll bite.

Volquez has been injured all season, a season after competing for the NL Cy Young award. While Sanchez has had a tumultuous career to say the least, pitchers one no hitter against the lowly Padres and now he is better than Volquez? C'mon man. We know you like to bash this pitching staff, but don't try and say that Jonathan Sanchez is a better performer than Volquez.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 10:21 AM
I'm hoping, for your sake, that you are kidding, but I'll bite.

Volquez has been injured all season, a season after competing for the NL Cy Young award. While Sanchez has had a tumultuous career to say the least, pitchers one no hitter against the lowly Padres and now he is better than Volquez? C'mon man. We know you like to bash this pitching staff, but don't try and say that Jonathan Sanchez is a better performer than Volquez.

This season Sanchez has been a better performer than Volquez. That's inarguable.

Homer Bailey
07-11-2009, 10:30 AM
This season Sanchez has been a better performer than Volquez. That's inarguable.

Sanchez is 2-8 with an ERA of 5.30. Volquez is 4-2 with an ERA of 4.35. Double the wins despite spending the better parts of 2 months.

Sanchez has been so bad that he's been pulled from the rotation. He has NOT been a better performer than Volquez this season. Unless you really want to hold Volquez's injury against him, which isn't his fault.

GAC
07-11-2009, 10:38 AM
On-Base Percentage:

Jerry Hairston Jr: .311
Paul Janish: .306
Laynce Nix: .301
Edwin Encarnacion: .293
Willy Taveras: .286
Jay Bruce: .284
Alex Gonzalez: .256

Anyone wanna take a guess why the team is having trouble?

An when we do get men on base in scoring position, that's where we leave them with an offense that is bottom tier in the NL in most every offensive category.

OnBaseMachine
07-11-2009, 11:34 AM
Volquez had two awful starts to begin the season and then posted a 2.99 ERA over his next six starts before going down with an injury. Hardly a disaster, IMO.

Rojo
07-11-2009, 12:59 PM
This season Sanchez has been a better performer than Volquez. That's inarguable.


I've been pimping for a trade for Sanchez for a while, I'm a fan. But he's no Volquez.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2009, 02:08 PM
But he's no Volquez.

Right now he's a whole lot better.

Health: the first tool.

HokieRed
07-11-2009, 02:11 PM
Right now he's a whole lot better.

Health: the first tool.

FCB is entirely right here. In evaluating a starting staff, you have to take into account experience, consistency, injuries, depth. Some of us did take those things into account in the offseason, which is why we didn't think this team had a contending rotation--yet. We may have by the beginning of next season; that's yet to be determined and depends largely on how Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, and Owings account themselves the rest of the way.

redsfandan
07-11-2009, 02:23 PM
I could be wrong but I didn't think Volquez had a history of injuries.

Caveat Emperor
07-11-2009, 02:41 PM
Remember how everyone joked about Brian Sabean--claiming he was a joke of a GM; had gotten lucky with Bonds? I want what they got. Young pitchers actually doing it; not sort of kind of doing it.

Really, when you cut down to it, the difference between Brian Sabean's Giants and the Reds is that Brian Sabean drafted Tim Lincecum while Wayne Krivsky passed and drafted Drew Stubbs.

Flip the decision and Sabean is still a moron while the Reds are probably leading the NL Central. I don't think it's fair to the Reds or Sabean to lump praise on the latter when, really, we're talking about 1 draft pick worth of difference between the two teams.

As for Sanchez -- he threw a no hitter. Nice gold star to put on a resume. Bronson Arroyo just threw a 4 hitter. End result is still the same (9 IP, W), and the larger point is that any pitcher can look great for a day.

LoganBuck
07-11-2009, 03:15 PM
Three words on Volquez: World Baseball Classic

I know people don't want to use it as an excuse, but take a look around at the pitchers that logged multiple starts during the WBC, and their numbers and injuries. Coincidence?

HokieRed
07-11-2009, 03:28 PM
I could be wrong but I didn't think Volquez had a history of injuries.

We may not have enough history of Volquez to know if he has a history of injuries.

Rojo
07-13-2009, 03:42 PM
Right now he's a whole lot better.

Health: the first tool.

So you've got a crystal ball on this one?

Rojo
07-13-2009, 03:46 PM
FCB is entirely right here. In evaluating a starting staff, you have to take into account experience, consistency, injuries, depth. Some of us did take those things into account in the offseason, which is why we didn't think this team had a contending rotation--yet. We may have by the beginning of next season; that's yet to be determined and depends largely on how Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, and Owings account themselves the rest of the way.

Young talented pitching staffs -- who needs 'em?

We weren't going to contend this year because Bruce was going to need another year and we had holes at short, third and LF, possible CF and Catcher.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 03:47 PM
So you've got a crystal ball on this one?

No news is bad news when it comes to pitchers on the DL.

And even when there is news on Volquez it's to say, "Well he's worse off than we thought."

I'll get back to you when I actually know where Volquez is. I doubt anyone--even the medical staff--knows how he's doing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Volquez didn't return this season.

Rojo
07-13-2009, 03:54 PM
No news is bad news when it comes to pitchers on the DL.

And even when there is news on Volquez it's to say, "Well he's worse off than we thought."

I'll get back to you when I actually know where Volquez is. I doubt anyone--even the medical staff--knows how he's doing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Volquez didn't return this season.

Not my point. Unless you can point to something troubling (like Lincecum's stature and delivery, ironically) or a track record, then injury projection is guess-work. You're going to be right sometimes.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 03:57 PM
Not my point. Unless you can point to something troubling (like Lincecum's stature and delivery, ironically) or a track record, then injury projection is guess-work. You're going to be right sometimes.

I didn't see Volquez's injury coming. Who cares though? He's hurt. And when you're hurt, you're not producing.

Sanchez is producing. That was my point.

(Scouts and several folks on here have commented that Volquez's pitching motion is a time-bomb. Take it for what it's worth).

TRF
07-13-2009, 04:00 PM
We didn't get a lot of news on EE while he was hurt either. That's just how the Reds FO works.

Ltlabner
07-13-2009, 05:18 PM
Since Jonathan Sanchez has got that great tool known as health, I thought these were interesting.


Sanchez was placed on the DL on Aug. 16 with a left shoulder strain. He was 8-9 with a 4.53 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 135 innings this season.

From here (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3563721)


Sanchez pitched 75.6 innings in 2007, so in 2008 his total jumped by 82.3. Injury history: biceps tendinitis in March of '07, rib cage strain in July of '07, strained oblique in September of '07, and a rotator cuff strain in August of '08. That 7.83 ERA September this year was after he returned from the DL. He's a risky pitcher.

From here (http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/12/jonathan-sanche.html)

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:19 PM
Since Jonathan Sanchez has got that great tool known as health, I thought these were interesting.



From here (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3563721)



From here (http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/12/jonathan-sanche.html)

I don't begrudge guys a visit to the 15-day, but we're working on how many weeks with Volquez--and no end in sight?

Ltlabner
07-13-2009, 05:20 PM
I don't begrudge guys a visit to the 15-day, but we're working on how many weeks with Volquez--and no end in sight?

Keep dancing.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:23 PM
Keep dancing.

Yeah, boy, what a gotcha moment.

Pitch or do not. Is there a middle ground you're carving out somewhere?

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:29 PM
Yeah, boy, what a gotcha moment.

Pitch or do not. Is there a middle ground you're carving out somewhere?

I agree with you on Arroyo.

I agree it's possible Harang will be moved.

but injuries happen, and you are so far off base with Volquez, Ramon Hernandez could pick you off. I wouldn't trade Volquez for two Sanchez's

Ltlabner
07-13-2009, 05:30 PM
Yeah, boy, what a gotcha moment.

Pitch or do not. Is there a middle ground you're carving out somewhere?

I see that Arroyo embarrassed you the other day so now the cross-hairs are on EV?

So your newest tact is to slag on the injured guy. I guess there's never been a pitcher in recorded MLB history who's contributed to a team after a DL stint?

I just hope someday we have someone in the rotation as "healthy" as your newest flame Sanchez.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:31 PM
I agree with you on Arroyo.

I agree it's possible Harang will be moved.

but injuries happen, and you are so far off base with Volquez, Ramon Hernandez could pick you off. I wouldn't trade Volquez for two Sanchez's

I wouldn't trade a healthy Volquez for much of anything. But I gotta tell ya, this one's going down on the ole permanent record, imo: fragile.

Is it fair? I don't know, who cares? But to pretend like his stock hasn't sunk a good bit is being unbelievably naive.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 05:31 PM
I'll say it again- I don't think we're too far from FCB turning into Aronchis around here. At this point, it only appears to be a matter of time...

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:32 PM
I see that Arroyo embarrassed you the other day so now the cross-hairs are on EV?

So your newest tact is to slag on the injured guy. I guess there's never been a pitcher in recorded MLB history who's contributed to a team after a DL stint?

I just hope someday we have someone in the rotation as "healthy" as your newest flame Sanchez.

No. Arroyo still sucks.

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:32 PM
I wouldn't trade a healthy Volquez for much of anything. But I gotta tell ya, this one's going down on the ole permanent record, imo: fragile.

Is it fair? I don't know, who cares? But to pretend like his stock hasn't sunk a good bit is being unbelievably naive.

Hasn't diminished your man crush on the perpetually injured Chris Carpenter.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:33 PM
I'll say it again- I don't think we're too far from FCB turning into Aronchis around here. At this point, it only appears to be a matter of time...

I know who's a little hung up in this equation and it ain't me.

*Note the name-calling did not start with me.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:34 PM
Hasn't diminished your man crush on the perpetually injured Chris Carpenter.

Carpenter's a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB. You take what you get and like it.

Benihana
07-13-2009, 05:36 PM
I know who's a little hung up in this equation and it ain't me.

*Note the name-calling did not start with me.


By name calling, do you mean comparing you to another long-time poster?

And it's not just with me, it's with everyone.

You like to make provocative statements and that's fine. I enjoy a good debate, and I certainly don't always wear the rose-colored glasses. But it's not very productive to just say "Reds suck...they're completely devoid of talent," "Volquez/Cueto will be injured for months to come," "Arroyo still sucks," etc. etc. etc. on every single thread at all times.

All anyone needs to do is look at your recent posting history to see what I'm talking about.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:39 PM
By name calling, do you mean comparing you to another long-time poster?

And it's not just with me, it's with everyone.

You like to make provocative statements and that's fine. I enjoy a good debate, and I certainly don't always wear the rose-colored glasses. But it's not very productive to just say "Reds suck...they're completely devoid of talent," "Volquez/Cueto will be injured for months to come," "Arroyo still sucks," etc. etc. etc. on every single thread at all times.

All anyone needs to do is look at your recent posting history to see what I'm talking about.

Take it private, pal.

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:41 PM
Carpenter's a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB. You take what you get and like it.

Oh Please. Prior to this year he had appeard in a total of 5 games over the previous 2 seasons. Before coming to St. Louis he was a #4-5 starter at best. Oh yeah, he missed a year before his first NL start, 2003.

He should be wrapped in bubble wrap before and after every game. He should also donate half his salary to Dave Duncan, who taught him how to actually pitch.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:43 PM
Oh Please. Prior to this year he had appeard in a total of 5 games over the previous 2 seasons. Before coming to St. Louis he was a #4-5 starter at best. Oh yeah, he missed a year before his first NL start, 2003.

He should be wrapped in bubble wrap before and after every game. He should also donate half his salary to Dave Duncan, who taught him how to actually pitch.

WS Ring.

Ltlabner
07-13-2009, 05:43 PM
But to pretend like his stock hasn't sunk a good bit is being unbelievably naive.

Now you're re-framing your argument after being called out.

Your original thrust was that EV was a useless goof who hadn't contributed anything this year. You discussed problematic walk rates, described his season as an "unmitigated disaster" and even claimed JS was having a better season (despite having been demoted, having a higher WHIP and giving up more hits than EV. He's also got a higher ERA and less wins for what that's worth).

Now you've tempered it down to "his stock sinking a good bit" after shifting gears and grasping onto the "health issue".

As far as EV goes I really don't care about a DL stint. Being on the DL in and of itself doesn't bother me at all. Yes, the length of time is troubling. But I'm far more interested in waiting until we have actual facts instead of just declaring him junk and moving on to the great Jonathan Sanchez.

If he comes back from the DL as good as ever then who really gives a flying crap about the DL stint? If he comes back from the DL and is shaky for a few starts then I'll have the lingering doubts you mentioned and would agree that concern is reasonable. If the injury turns out to be severe (no mater when reported) then I'll agree with you 100% that his stock just plummeted.

But that's not what you're saying at all. You're saying he's junk simply because he's on the DL without any other available evidence. Then to further underscore your complete lack of impartiality you chose to ignore repeated DL trips from Sanchez when they are pointed out.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:45 PM
Now you're re-framing your argument after being called out.

Your original thrust was that EV was a useless goof who hadn't contributed anything this year. You discussed problematic walk rates, described his season as an "unmitigated disaster" and even claimed JS was having a better season (despite having been demoted, having a higher WHIP and giving up more hits than EV. He's also got a higher ERA and less wins for what that's worth).

Now you've tempered it down to "his stock sinking a good bit".

As far as EV goes I really don't care about a DL stint. Being on the DL in and of itself doesn't bother me at all. Yes, the length of time is troubling. But I'm far more interested in waiting until we have actual facts instead of just declaring him junk and moving on to the great Jonathan Sanchez.

If he comes back from the DL as good as ever then who really gives a flying crap about the DL stint? If he comes back from the DL and is shaky for a few starts then I'll have the lingering doubts you mentioned. If the injury turns out to be severe (no mater when reported) then I'll agree with you 100% that his stock just plummeted.

But that's not what you're saying at all. You're saying he's junk simply because he's on the DL without any other available evidence. Then to further underscore your complete lack of impartiality you chose to ignore repeated DL trips from Sanchez when they are pointed out.


Here's Volquez's season: terrible, 4 good starts, injury for weeks.

If he were a seasoned vet, he'd get a pass, but come on, he's got to prove something doesn't he?

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:48 PM
WS Ring.

Bronson Arroyo has one too.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:49 PM
Bronson Arroyo has one too.

Hey, he used to be good too! Coincidence? :cool:

TRF
07-13-2009, 05:53 PM
Hey, he used to be good too! Coincidence? :cool:
ugh.

I'm not saying BA is good right now, but he's been good his first three years as a Red. But having a WS Ring only means you played on a WS team. It's a weak argument.

Carpenter was dreck before STL, and has only been good for 3 1/2 seasons since his career started in 1997.

He's missed 3 FULL seasons and significant time this year too.

Rojo
07-13-2009, 05:56 PM
Here's Volquez's season: terrible, 4 good starts, injury for weeks.

If he were a seasoned vet, he'd get a pass, but come on, he's got to prove something doesn't he?


Yeah, cuz expensive injured vets are catnip to this board.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:57 PM
Yeah, cuz expensive injured vets are catnip to this board.

I don't recall a lot of grousing when Harang went down last year.

jojo
07-13-2009, 05:58 PM
Here's the thing though, the Reds starting pitching in the aggregate has been below average in the NL based upon ERA or FIP.

Even they're relief pitching is only ranked 10th in the NL by FIP though Janish gave up a couple dingers.

True they play in a hitters environment but still, it's not all roses.

Offensively, well it looks even bleaker if you want to adjust for environment so we won't go there.... but there is room for a guy like EE to step it up. There is room for a couple guys to deflate too though....

Right now the true strength of the Reds is their defense (ranked 2nd in the NL via UZR and 5th by DER).

Rojo
07-13-2009, 05:58 PM
I don't recall a lot of grousing when Harang went down last year.


With one notable exception, there hasn't been alot a grousing about Volquez.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 05:59 PM
With one notable exception, there hasn't been alot a grousing about Volquez.

I don't care about the grousing; you brought it up.

Scrap Irony
07-13-2009, 06:11 PM
If you asked Red fans before the season if they'd be happy with Volquez's numbers at the All Star break, I'm pretty certain most wouldn't.

In short, he has "stunk".

Not really his fault, as injuries happen, but to say he's been anything but disappointing is disingenious.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2009, 06:34 PM
Here's the thing though, the Reds starting pitching in the aggregate has been below average in the NL based upon ERA or FIP.

Even they're relief pitching is only ranked 10th in the NL by FIP though Janish gave up a couple dingers.

True they play in a hitters environment but still, it's not all roses.

Offensively, well it looks even bleaker if you want to adjust for environment so we won't go there.... but there is room for a guy like EE to step it up. There is room for a couple guys to deflate too though....

Right now the true strength of the Reds is their defense (ranked 2nd in the NL via UZR and 5th by DER).

Below NL average starting despite one of the best defensive teams in the majors. That pretty much says it all.

OnBaseMachine
07-13-2009, 06:38 PM
The starting pitching took a huge hit when one of the best starters in the NL went down with an injury. Overall, the pitching has been fine. Could it use an upgrade? Yeah? But the offense has clearly been the problem.

Boss-Hog
07-13-2009, 06:43 PM
The personal stuff in this thread needs to be taken off the board immediately - we don't have any patience for it.