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View Full Version : Can the 2009 Reds finish 48-27?



Will M
07-12-2009, 08:32 PM
Usually it takes ~90 wins to make the playoffs. Occasionally a team in a weak division (2006 Cardinals) slips in with less than 90 wins but it doesn't happen often.

the Reds are 42-45 and 4.5 games out of first. we need to win 48 out of the last 75 games to reach 90 wins. that is a pretty tall order & IMPOSSIBLE without significant improvement right away. 48-27 is a .640 winning percentage (think 103 wins over a 162 game season). the current Reds team is not nearly that good. not even close.

So I ask fellow ORG members: is it realistically possible for Walt to make changes for the Reds to make the 2009 postseason? if not he needs to use the trade deadline to start readying the team for 2010.

thoughts?

Highlifeman21
07-12-2009, 08:39 PM
The Reds have a snowball or ice cube's chance in Hell in finishing 48-27.

Bobby C needs to kick the bad contracts and the bad talent to the curb, and there's plenty of both within this organization.

dougdirt
07-12-2009, 08:41 PM
No chance.

BoydsOfSummer
07-12-2009, 08:56 PM
My 78 win prediction is way more likely. That would be like 36-39, they might not reach that even.

nate
07-12-2009, 08:57 PM
Not with the same faces on the 25-man.

Crosley68
07-12-2009, 09:00 PM
I think the sample size is big enough now......this roster has the correct winning percentage now. Zero reason to think any thing close to 48-27 is possible.

Joseph
07-12-2009, 09:01 PM
Mathematically anything is possible. Realistically, no.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2009, 09:09 PM
I doubt the Red Sox, Yankees, or any team is going to run off a record like that, in either half of the season.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 09:12 PM
Usually it takes ~90 wins to make the playoffs. Occasionally a team in a weak division (2006 Cardinals) slips in with less than 90 wins but it doesn't happen often.

The Reds are 42-45 and 4.5 games out of first. we need to win 48 out of the last 75 games to reach 90 wins. that is a pretty tall order & IMPOSSIBLE without significant improvement right away. 48-27 is a .640 winning percentage (think 103 wins over a 162 game season). the current Reds team is not nearly that good. not even close.

So I ask fellow ORG members: is it realistically possible for Walt to make changes for the Reds to make the 2009 postseason? if not he needs to use the trade deadline to start readying the team for 2010.

thoughts?

Good analysis.

Just a few possible adjustments.

First, the Cards are on a pace to win 88 games, and I don't think that much is needed to win this division. The Cards, Brewers, Cubs, Reds and Astros are 85 win teams at best. Some will win a few more, some a few less, but none of them are good enough to win 90 games. Not even close.

So if it's 88 games, and it might not even be that much (2006-7, 83 and 85 wins won the division), then the Reds need to go 46-29, or .613.

While this team is not a .613 winning percentage team, it surely is capable of being that for two and half months. A .613 winning percentage is difficult to achieve over 162 games because all teams will go through slumps. But it is reasonable to think that the Reds could go two and half months without a slump or even on a tear. Worse teams have done that year after year. Thinking 102 (or 99) out of 162 is not really applicable now.

That said, I don't think they will. The only way they can is if they get a hitter like Rolen, and he gets on a hot streak. BP put the odds of the Reds making the playoffs at 4.5%. I think the weak division, plus the Reds pitching puts it more into the 15% range.

Will M
07-12-2009, 09:15 PM
Pretty much what I think. The 2009 team started with too many holes & now is sprouting leaks. Unless Walt empties the farm & Bob opens up the wallet any additions to the team are not going to be enought to win this year.
Time to look ahead to 2010. We should be sellers not buyers.

Will M
07-12-2009, 09:23 PM
Good analysis.

Just a few possible adjustments.

First, the Cards are on a pace to win 88 games, and I don't think that much is needed to win this division. The Cards, Brewers, Cubs, Reds and Astros are 85 win teams at best. Some will win a few more, some a few less, but none of them are good enough to win 90 games. Not even close.

So if it's 88 games, and it might not even be that much (2006-7, 83 and 85 wins won the division), then the Reds need to go 46-29, or .613.

While this team is not a .613 winning percentage team, it surely is capable of being that for two and half months. A .613 winning percentage is difficult to achieve over 162 games because all teams will go through slumps. But it is reasonable to think that the Reds could go two and half months without a slump or even on a tear. Worse teams have done that year after year. Thinking 102 (or 99) out of 162 is not really applicable now.

That said, I don't think they will. The only way they can is if they get a hitter like Rolen, and he gets on a hot streak. BP put the odds of the Reds making the playoffs at 4.5%. I think the weak division, plus the Reds pitching puts it more into the 15% range.

i saw the 4.5% chance. ouch!

lets say Walt goes out and gets a middle of the order hitter like Rolen and gets a shortstop. the lineup (sans Taveras) would be OK. not great just OK. we would still have to have a ton of things go right to win this year.

lets say the odds are 15% not 4.5% . still not very good. doesn't seem like a good time to use up resources (aka prospects) trying to win.

TheNext44
07-12-2009, 09:32 PM
i saw the 4.5% chance. ouch!

lets say Walt goes out and gets a middle of the order hitter like Rolen and gets a shortstop. the lineup (sans Taveras) would be OK. not great just OK. we would still have to have a ton of things go right to win this year.

lets say the odds are 15% not 4.5% . still not very good. doesn't seem like a good time to use up resources (aka prospects) trying to win.

To be fair to BP. and I am not their biggest fan, the Reds are in 5th place, so statistically, since they have to climb over 4 teams, their odds start at 20% and go down from there.

I agree about not spending resources to try to win this year, but I could see Jocketty make some moves that improve the team this year, and in the future. Rolen is signed for 2010, so he would not be a rental. If they get a young SS like M. Izturis, he wouldn't just be for this year. etc...
Those are the only trades that would make sense to me.

Edskin
07-12-2009, 10:04 PM
I thought about this a bit...

Zero chance the Reds win 48+ games in the second half. Zero. I will walk naked from here to Cincy if we win 90 games in 2009 (let the jokes commence). :)

I think our absolute, pie-in-the-sky, ridiculously lucky, dream, best case scenerio would be to go 42-33 in the second half. A record like that is attainable by just about any team that isn't a total joke that has the slightest potential of catching lightning in a bottle for a couple weeks and playing .500 from there.

That would put us at 84 wins and while I don't think we'd win the divison with that mark, we'd probably be in it until the end. So, in other words, I think our best case scenerio would be to stay legitimately in the race until mid-late September.

A MUCH more realistic option would be to finish a few games under or right at .500 from here on out. If you put a gun to my head, I'd predict us to finish with 79 wins right now.

reds44
07-12-2009, 10:09 PM
They'll finish between 79-84 wins.

Edskin
07-12-2009, 10:15 PM
They'll finish between 79-84 wins.

It's funny, it doesn't sound like much, but there is a HUGE difference between 84 and 79 wins.

An 84 win pace in the second half means we're playing substantially better and we'd almost certainly put ourselves in contention come September.

A 79 win pace still puts us just below .500 for the second half and we'd most likely steadily sink in the standings.

A 5 win difference is gigantic. A 5 win difference over the first half and we're in first place right now.

corkedbat
07-12-2009, 10:57 PM
With Volquez & Bruce laid up, Cueto fading, Harang shaky and Bronson's repetitive wrist motions (not to mention an offense worse than what they have at AAA) - I'd say that 27-48 may be optomistic.

HokieRed
07-12-2009, 10:59 PM
I'm sticking to 75-87.

top6
07-12-2009, 11:52 PM
On the plus side, they probably won't go 20-55. So they are going to exceed my 62-100 prediction. Hopefully.

Scrap Irony
07-13-2009, 12:11 AM
No way they can win 90. But they can still finish at around .500, assuming Volquez comes back healthy and none of the other Young Guns gets hurt. Again. Too, Phillips and EdE have to start hitting like they're capable of and Votto needs to continue to be Pujols Lite. Bailey has to continue his effectiveness as well.

If those things happen, maybe Cincinnati gets lucky and finished third and slightly above .500 overall.

I hope, OTOH, Jocketty recognizes the opportunity to shed some payroll and grab a SS. Send Harang to LA for Wood. Send our All Star closer to New York for Montero or to Philadelphia for Taylor. Hope Arroyo gets hot for another three starts so his market heats up, then deal him too.

I'm guessing, however, Castellini has decided, after reading Redszone and talking to other fans, that sending said veteran players out the door will cause fans to desert the team. He'll order Jocketty to do something which will mean taking a gamble on an older established player for prospects. Since the Reds won't add much cash to the bottom line, more prospects (re: better prospects) will be added in lieu of cash.

Think Magglio Ordonez for the small, small price of Arroyo, Frazier, Heisey, and Fisher.

TheNext44
07-13-2009, 12:23 AM
No way they can win 90. But they can still finish at around .500, assuming Volquez comes back healthy and none of the other Young Guns gets hurt. Again. Too, Phillips and EdE have to start hitting like they're capable of and Votto needs to continue to be Pujols Lite. Bailey has to continue his effectiveness as well.

If those things happen, maybe Cincinnati gets lucky and finished third and slightly above .500 overall.

I hope, OTOH, Jocketty recognizes the opportunity to shed some payroll and grab a SS. Send Harang to LA for Wood. Send our All Star closer to New York for Montero or to Philadelphia for Taylor. Hope Arroyo gets hot for another three starts so his market heats up, then deal him too.

I'm guessing, however, Castellini has decided, after reading Redszone and talking to other fans, that sending said veteran players out the door will cause fans to desert the team. He'll order Jocketty to do something which will mean taking a gamble on an older established player for prospects. Since the Reds won't add much cash to the bottom line, more prospects (re: better prospects) will be added in lieu of cash.

Think Magglio Ordonez for the small, small price of Arroyo, Frazier, Heisey, and Fisher.

Ordonez was almost released, was benched and is now being platooned. Take on his contact and the Reds could have him for free. The Tigers might even through in a low level prospect to make it more enticing. I'm not joking.

Pretty much agree with the other stuff.

Scrap Irony
07-13-2009, 12:30 AM
Which is why it would be a bad deal. A panic deal. A veteran slugger deal. An I'm-trying-so-please-come-to-the-ballpark-deal.

corkedbat
07-13-2009, 12:47 AM
Ordonez was almost released, was benched and is now being platooned. Take on his contact and the Reds could have him for free. The Tigers might even through in a low level prospect to make it more enticing. I'm not joking.

Pretty much agree with the other stuff.

WillyT was released and the Reds had little, if any competition for him, but they still made him the centerpiece to their offensive rebuilding effort and gave him 2yrs @ $5M. Don't ever sell their capacity for doing exactly the wrong thing short - this franchise is developing quite a pedigree for it.

Mario-Rijo
07-13-2009, 01:10 AM
With Jay Bruce on the field and the chance he'd find "it" I'd give them a chance, a real good one if they added the proper piece or 2. Without Bruce no way do I see that happening, short of selling the farm and at this point I am not in favor of that. I'd still be trying to improve this team from an overall standpoint for next year whilst not throwing in the proverbial towel.

Finding someone who will take on Arroyo would be priority #1 after that just adding a solid piece or 2 for next season should be the plan.

WVRedsFan
07-13-2009, 01:35 AM
Anything is posible in sports. Keep that in mind. Without some offense, this team is sunk. The much heralded pitching has turned into a warm pitcher of spit. Harang is pressing and trying to be too fine because he knows not many runs are going to be scored by the offense. Cueto is learning and he is learning some good lessons. Arroyo is Arroyo--up and down. Owings is a fifth starter. Nothing more. Homer is a question mark. I don't expect to see much out of Volquez for the rest of the season. Case closed, we need offense.

If somehow, Jocketty could impress on Dusty that batting guys OBP's below .300 at the top of the lineup is folly, then maybe we can get to 90. If Hairston could be used for what he is--a utility player, then maybe. If we had a shortstop who could rake and hit, it gets better. If we had a genuine MLB bat to help Votto and Phillips, then things really look better. But...

I don't expect to see any of this. The pitching will melt from the pressure. The Reds will continue to bat Taveras 1-2 most of the time and ignore Gomes. No one will be obtained and the shortsop position will continue to be a mess. Over the last 75 games I expect 39-36. Or worse.

SirFelixCat
07-13-2009, 02:29 AM
No chance.

:goodposting:

icehole3
07-13-2009, 06:49 AM
Add Volkie and Bailey firmly into the rotation with a rested Cueto and I think they have a good chance at .500 maybe 83-84 wins, I like their chances

cumberlandreds
07-13-2009, 08:00 AM
Not a chance at this. They will come much closer to losing 90 games than winning 90 games. Just too many holes to fill. The Reds have a lot of work to do in the off season if they want to compete next season for a playoff spot. We will see if they will do what it takes to get there. I have my doubts.