PDA

View Full Version : time for some optimism-a look at 2010



Will M
07-14-2009, 10:42 AM
the gloom and doom is kinda depressing. i have been looking at what we will have next year and it looks pretty good.

1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - need #1. Janish seems like a utility infielder. Valiaka has question marks. Cozart is in AA.
3B - EE seems pencilled in here warts an all. Frazier should arrive sometime next year and I hope he pans out and is at 3B in 2011.
RF - Bruce. yeh he stunk this year but still has immense potential
CF - Dickerson, Stubbs and/or Heissey
LF - need #2. the Reds could use Heissey or Dickerson here. they may go get a bat here either for the long term or as a stopgap waiting for Alonso (Votto to LF?). Alonso hopefully will arrive sometime next year. depending on how Dickerson plays from here out and how Stubbs/Heissey play when they get the call we'll know better how to address LF this offseason.
C - Hanigan
Bench - Sutton, Rosales, Valaika, Dorn, Janish,etc. Lots of cheap bench players available to us. We could also sign a couple of guys to minor league deals like we did this year with Gomes, Nix, Ward, Jones,etc.
We need to find a backup catcher which shouldn't be too hard.

SP - Potentially very strong 1-2-3-4 with Cueto-Harang-Volquez-Bailey.
Owings seems a fine #5 while we wait for guys with bigger upsides like Stewart, Leake, & Wood. Arroyo is still around but the Reds would love to find a team desperate enough for pitching to take on his deal. $11M for a BOR starter can be better spend elsewhere.

RP - Cordero, Rhodes, Massett, Herrara, Fisher, Roenicke, Burton. Thats seven deep right there.

Overall 2010 looks pretty promising. Our pitching could be really strong if Volquez & Bailey pitch well. we have four guys with TOR potential. The pen looks strong and deep. We will have an infusion of talent with Stubbs & Heissey being ready opening day and Frazier/Alonso likely coming mid season.

The only glaring need for 2010 is a shortstop.

Why could 2010 be a lot better than 2009?
1. a healthy Volquez
2. a whole season of Bailey
3. a healthy EE
4. a new improved Jay Bruce
5. our losses are few: Weathers, Gomes, Nix, R Hernandez
6. get a shortstop and i really like our chances in 2010 (and beyond)

RedLegSuperStar
07-14-2009, 11:01 AM
My thing about predicting what year we will be good and this and that is just about a waste of time as predicting trades. You can't count on prospects to pan out at the major league level as they do in the minors. Injuries are a huge part of this teams rise and decline and always have been. Imagine where the team is with a healthy Votto, Encarnacion, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Gonzalez, and now Bruce. I know you are not claiming the Reds are going to compete in 2010 but others have. They can compete now if ownership wanted to. This farm system is loaded from top to bottom with enough talent to obtain needs and they are afraid to make a move. Last year was the same as they elected to stand pat and this offseason was nothing to scream about and it shows in season ticket sales. This organization is going to have to learn that putting a product on the field that can compete will put money in their pockets. Missing oppertunities to drive ticket sales and revenue isn't a smart business move especially in this economy. Which will take the blame in the long run.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2009, 11:39 AM
I'm optimistic about the Reds chances of contending in 2010 assuming Jocketty upgrades a couple positions, most notably shortstop and left field. I really like the Reds potential 1-4 of Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and Harang. That's four potential above average or better starters. Find some offense to go with that rotation and the Reds could be very good next season, IMO.

Strikes Out Looking
07-14-2009, 11:44 AM
I hate to rain on the parade, but isn't Taveras signed for 2010 and what makes anyone think Dusty (also signed for 2010) won't trot him out there in CF everyday next year (and then blame CDick for Willie's ineptitude on the field)?

redsfan4445
07-14-2009, 11:46 AM
you forgot one thing Taveras is signed to a $4 million deal next year.. thats your lead-off hitter..sigh.. so much for that optimism :(

VR
07-14-2009, 11:48 AM
I'm thinking Harang has to be turned to fill your SS/LF need....either via trade or free agent $.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2009, 11:49 AM
I hate to rain on the parade, but isn't Taveras signed for 2010 and what makes anyone think Dusty (also signed for 2010) won't trot him out there in CF everyday next year (and then blame CDick for Willie's ineptitude on the field)?

If the Reds are serious about winning in 2010, they'll release Taveras this offseason.

redsfan4445
07-14-2009, 11:50 AM
Harang and Manuel for Michael Taylor from the Phillies??

TheNext44
07-14-2009, 11:50 AM
I hate to rain on the parade, but isn't Taveras signed for 2010 and what makes anyone think Dusty (also signed for 2010) won't trot him out there in CF everyday next year (and then blame CDick for Willie's ineptitude on the field)?

Worst case scenerio, 2010 CF is Stubbs, which really is not that bad.

Taveras is out there because he has 30-50 SB speed, which Dusty requires for his CF. So does Stubbs, and Stubbs is better defensively, another requirement for Dusty for a CF.

Dusty doesn't fall in love with players, he falls in love with skills like speed. If Stubbs can provide that skill in CF, and play better defense, Dusty will play him over Taveras.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 12:00 PM
If the Reds are serious about winning in 2010, they'll release Taveras this offseason.

True. We know that, but they apparently don't.

If they were serious about winning in 2009 or 2010, they would never have signed him in the first place.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 12:02 PM
True. We know that, but they apparently don't.

If they were serious about winning in 2009 or 2010, they would never have signed him in the first place.

Replace Taveras' PA all-season with an average CF. Where are the Reds in the standings right now?

Will M
07-14-2009, 12:15 PM
Both Gomes and Nix are arbitration eligible for 2010. Gomes has been great so far. if he keeps it up the rest of the way we could keep him.
something like:
LF Dickerson/Gomes
CF Stubbs or Heissey
RF Bruce/Gomes

Basically get his bat in there vs LHP.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 12:35 PM
Replace Taveras' PA all-season with an average CF. Where are the Reds in the standings right now?

Probably not a whole lot better, but that's not the point. This is an organization that thought he would help.

He was not the answer. He shouldn't have even been a choice. He is ranked 830th out of 838 players in VORP. He's been awful in CF and pretty pedestrian on the basepaths. Add it all up and it's worse than bad. And the sad thing is that half this board could have predicted that, but the dudes getting paid the big bucks to make decisions on the future of our beloved franchise thought he was an answer for this franchise to compete in 2009 and 2010.

My point is they really never could have been serious about 2009 or 2010. That or they are just plain stupid. Take your pick.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2009, 12:40 PM
Replace Taveras' PA all-season with an average CF. Where are the Reds in the standings right now?

The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

FWIW -- I expect Harang to get moved at the deadline. Walt ain't dumb -- the team can probably find Harang's production out there in FA this offseason for about what Harang is costing, and given the projected tightness of the market they can probably bring back a good haul of productive young talent in return for him.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 12:42 PM
Probably not a whole lot better, but that's not the point. This is an organization that thought he would help.

He was not the answer. He shouldn't have even been a choice. He is ranked 830th out of 838 players in VORP. He's been awful in CF and pretty pedestrian on the basepaths. Add it all up and it's worse than bad. And the sad thing is that half this board could have predicted that, but the dudes getting paid the big bucks to make decisions on the future of our beloved franchise thought he was an answer for this franchise to compete in 2009 and 2010.

My point is they really never could have been serious about 2009 or 2010. That or they are just plain stupid. Take your pick.

I'd say that's pretty reductive.

I don't think Wayne was an idiot because he signed Patterson; I think he was a poor GM because of his consistent track record of overpaying for production.

I can understand the argument that Walt isn't doing enough to help the team, not acquiring enough talent. I could agree with that. But to consider this Taveras deal as the emblem of his efforts is just missing the point.

Razor Shines
07-14-2009, 12:44 PM
Worst case scenerio, 2010 CF is Stubbs, which really is not that bad.

Taveras is out there because he has 30-50 SB speed, which Dusty requires for his CF. So does Stubbs, and Stubbs is better defensively, another requirement for Dusty for a CF.

Dusty doesn't fall in love with players, he falls in love with skills like speed. If Stubbs can provide that skill in CF, and play better defense, Dusty will play him over Taveras.

I don't know. I think Drew is hurt by the fact that he doesn't look like the typical speed, defense and top of the order CFer. Maybe I'm not being fair to Dusty, but I just kinda get that feeling.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 12:45 PM
I'd say that's pretty reductive.

I don't think Wayne was an idiot because he signed Patterson; I think he was a poor GM because of his consistent track record of overpaying for production.

I can understand the argument that Walt isn't doing enough to help the team, not acquiring enough talent. I could agree with that. But to consider this Taveras deal as the emblem of his efforts is just missing the point.

It was the main signing this past off-season.

For a franchise trying to shed it's loser label and take step forward, it was a couple steps back. There's really no excuse that can be made to justify it.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 12:50 PM
It was the main signing this past off-season.

For a franchise trying to shed it's loser label and take step forward, it was a couple steps back. There's really no excuse that can be made to justify it.

I'm not trying to justify it; I'm trying to contextualize it.

Walt also shed the worst dollar-for-production offensive player in baseball for a set-up man. And for Dunn he got a starter who is currently outpitching their $12 million cash cow Arroyo.

We agree on one thing: the Reds needed to go big this last offseason if contention was on their minds for this one. If this season has taught us anything, it's that they really weren't all that close, and big additions needed to be made. It certainly is more than a little mysterious why the payroll froze as solidly as it did. But it turns out they needed a lot more payroll space if they were going to contend this season. They didn't get that space.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2009, 01:02 PM
I'm not trying to justify it; I'm trying to contextualize it.

Walt also shed the worst dollar-for-production offensive player in baseball for a set-up man. And for Dunn he got a starter who is currently outpitching their $12 million cash cow Arroyo.

Ahh, you've come around to Owings now? Nice.

The things you listed are what Walt did last season, but I was commenting on what he did in the off-season. An off-season highlighted by the signing of one Willy Taveras (are we still allowed to mention his name?). And mentioning the WT signing is not being reductive, it's actually pretty symbolic of this organization as a whole for the last decade. An organization with no vision, plan, or identity.

Also, Walt could have landed Owings and still had Dunn back (with Dickerson/Stubbs in CF). Let me ask you, how much better do you think the offense would have been with Dunn replacing Taveras in the lineup? If they were serious about contending in 2009, they could have gone this route for just a few more dollars.

But no, last off-season was the speed, defense, and hustle theme. What will it be next year? Listen to the banana phone callers and Walt will have his answer.

redsmetz
07-14-2009, 01:19 PM
I hate to rain on the parade, but isn't Taveras signed for 2010 and what makes anyone think Dusty (also signed for 2010) won't trot him out there in CF everyday next year (and then blame CDick for Willie's ineptitude on the field)?

Baker didn't blame Dickerson for Taveras lousy play on that ball. He correctly noted (as many here have said) that Chris had a responsibility to be backing up. He didn't and should have been called out on it. To pretend otherwise is to miss the entire point Baker was making.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 01:21 PM
Ahh, you've come around to Owings now? Nice.
.

Not exactly. Just pointing out that Walt was able to find Arroyo's replacement at pennies on the dollar.

mth123
07-14-2009, 08:12 PM
Replace Taveras' PA all-season with an average CF. Where are the Reds in the standings right now?

Completely misses the point. Replace Taveras PAs this year with an .825 or so OPS LF and where are they now? Part of the math here is signing Taveras downgraded two spots. It took a guy who projected to be an average CF and pushed him into being a way below average LF. Meanwhile Taveras is well below average in CF. If said bat could add some middle of the line-up presence while Votto and EdE took turns on the sidelines it means a lot IMO.

I think that could easily make the difference in 4 or 5 ballgames. Add 3 wins (conservative IMO) and take away 3 losses and the Reds are 45 and 42 and with those spots filled, the mid-season acquisition game becomes upgrading elsewhere to improve the team even more. You complain about the pitching and you're right to an extent, but this team wasted a ton of good pitching in the 1st three months with the horrible offense. If the team were in better position, a run at a guy like Doug Davis, to use one of your more coveted targets, would be a realistic move about now. Instead, they didn't make hay while the sun was shining and now it probably doesn't matter.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 08:19 PM
Completely misses the point. Replace Taveras PAs this year with an .825 or so OPS LF and where are they now? Part of the math here is signing Taveras downgraded two spots. It took a guy who projected to be an average CF and pushed him into being a way below average LF. Meanwhile Taveras is well below average in CF. If said bat could add some middle of the line-up presence while Votto and EdE took turns on the sidelines it means a lot IMO.

I think that could easily make the difference in 4 or 5 ballgames. Add 3 wins (conservative IMO) and take away 3 losses and the Reds are 45 and 42 and with those spots filled, the mid-season acquisition game becomes upgrading elsewhere to improve the team even more. You complain about the pitching and you're right to an extent, but this team wasted a ton of good pitching in the 1st three months with the horrible offense. If the team were in better position, a run at a guy like Doug Davis, to use one of your more coveted targets, would be a realistic move about now. Instead, they didn't make hay while the sun was shining and now it probably doesn't matter.

I'd say this is putting an absurdly sunny projection on a what-if.

Especially when you consider that the Pythagoras says the Reds should be 41-46 (or 40-47, I can't remember which). We're probably talking about a game improvement at most in your Pythagorean scenario. Conceivably, the team's actual record could be just as bad the current actual record.

You're talking about farting around within the team's margin for error.

mth123
07-14-2009, 09:15 PM
A couple of blow outs and pythag looks bad. Meanwhile the Reds lost a ton of well pitched games because they couldn't hit. I don't think RS/RA tells the proper picture in this team's case. One bad week completely changed the pythag picture and obscures that this team was pretty close for three months and a few more runs would have meant an awful lot.

No farting here. I watched the games. For 80% or so of this team's games, pitching wasn't the issue. Up until the last couple weeks or so, the team's major losing periods were offense driven. They scored 9 runs in three games while getting swept by the Padres, they scored 9 runs in three games getting swept by the Brewers, they scored 8 runs in three games while losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs, scored 6 runs in three games getting swept by the Royals. Its really only been since July 3 or so that the pitching has been really bad (70 Runs allowed in 10 games) . Even then, the Reds have had games where they have allowed 2, 3, 3, 0 and 4 in half those games and only have a 3-2 record to show for it in those games. In 5 other games since July 3, the Reds have allowed 58 runs. That seems like a poor way to evaluate the entire season to me. The struggle for offense has been consistent throughout.

GAC
07-14-2009, 09:30 PM
I can understand the argument that Walt isn't doing enough to help the team, not acquiring enough talent. I could agree with that. But to consider this Taveras deal as the emblem of his efforts is just missing the point.

I don't think no one is saying that WT is the "emblem" of his efforts. But for the sake of not wanting to spend the money they....

- go after a non-tendered player and supplanted him in a key, skilled position in CF hoping that his career OPS of .657, SLG% of .332, and OB% as a leadoff man of .332, was all some sort of mirage, and he'd put up better numbers then he did playing in Coors Field. C'mon!

- LF. I listened to Walt on numerous occasions last year talk about how important Dunn was to this team and that they wanted to retain him. Bull! He's gone. Fine. But what was their answer to not only LF, but replacing that offensive production? They still don't know. There's a huge hole.

-SS. They went into this season with a huge question mark concerning the health of AGon at SS. More "finger crossing". They let a guy like Keppinger go, for whatever reasons, but most likely because they have a multi-versatile Hairston who can run faster, and can also 3B/SS. And because Baker has this love for JHJ for some reason. Keppinger (400 grand), is putting up a .273 BA .353 OB% .416 SLG% .769 OPS in 56 games. Hairston, who they signed for 2M, has a .251 BA .302 OB% .386 SLG% .688 OPS.

The bigger question I have for Jocketty and Baker, is how they could feel that this team would have any kind of a chance in '09 with what they have put out on that field with such huge question marks in very key positions. Thank God they play in the NL Central. IMO, they could have had a far better chance of winning this division this year with better investment/improvements.

I said at the beginning of the season that I don't care how improved this pitching may be. This offense would be their downfall. Many on here have said that.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 09:31 PM
A couple of blow outs and pythag looks bad. Meanwhile the Reds lost a ton of well pitched games because they couldn't hit. I don't think RS/RA tells the proper picture in this team's case. One bad week completely changed the pythag picture and obscures that this team was pretty close for three months and a few more runs would have meant an awful lot.

No farting here. I watched the games. For 80% or so of this team's games, pitching wasn't the issue. Up until the last couple weeks or so, the team's major losing periods were offense driven. They scored 9 runs in three games while getting swept by the Padres, they scored 9 runs in three games getting swept by the Brewers, they scored 8 runs in three games while losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs, scored 6 runs in three games getting swept by the Royals. Its really only been since July 3 or so that the pitching has been really bad (70 Runs allowed in 10 games) . Even then, the Reds have had games where they have allowed 2, 3, 3, 0 and 4 in half those games and only have a 3-2 record to show for it in those games. In 5 other games since July 3, the Reds have allowed 58 runs. That seems like a poor way to evaluate the entire season to me. The struggle for offense has been consistent throughout.

The problems with offense are obvious. It's a straw man to say that that's not acknowledged by me.

I'm arguing there are termites in the pitching staff. I have seen them since day one, when basically everyone was bullish on the staff.

Now that the starting staff has fallen below league-average (only 4th best in their own division), I think it's time to own up to the rotten planks.

You want Walt to build a winner? Sure: offense is a priori; but now he's got to fix the pitching too.

GAC
07-14-2009, 09:33 PM
Not exactly. Just pointing out that Walt was able to find Arroyo's replacement at pennies on the dollar.

Kinda very premature to say that Owings is Arroyo's replacement when one looks at career numbers.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2009, 09:35 PM
Kinda very premature to say that Owings is Arroyo's replacement when one looks at career numbers.

Arroyo's numbers this year are dirt-cellar. Do you see him turning it around at 33? Particularly when he no longer K's people?

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2009, 10:34 PM
I'm arguing there are termites in the pitching staff. I have seen them since day one, when basically everyone was bullish on the staff.

Every pitching staff has termites -- the only question is whose house stays standing the longest.

Unless you really wanted to bet, going into the season, that Joel Pineiro was going to be a 3.20 ERA pitcher.

mth123
07-14-2009, 11:14 PM
The problems with offense are obvious. It's a straw man to say that that's not acknowledged by me.

I'm arguing there are termites in the pitching staff. I have seen them since day one, when basically everyone was bullish on the staff.

Now that the starting staff has fallen below league-average (only 4th best in their own division), I think it's time to own up to the rotten planks.

You want Walt to build a winner? Sure: offense is a priori; but now he's got to fix the pitching too.

Actually, in this park and in this Division, middle of the pack pitching with a top 4 or so offense is the way to go. Up until the recent poor spell, the pitching has been middle of the pack and its all I ever expected. Completely ignoring the offense over the winter was where the plan fell through. Middle of the pack pitching in GABP with a healthy share of road games in Houston and Chicago is pretty good IMO. I'm not fool enough to let a 10 day bad streak on the mound obscure the primary issue. Bottom 3 in offense while playing in GABP is akin to putting a minor league team out there.

As far as the Pitching goes, I really don't disagree as much as it seems. I was never sold on Owings. I think Cueto is too young to do the things expected of him. I didn't expect Bailey to be a competent (not good) number 4 until next year. I was worried about Volquez 2nd half of 2008 and had some questions about both Harang and Arroyo. But, status quo with that group has the chance of still being good enough to win. The offensive guys that ended 2008 needed additional pieces to have a chance to be competitive. Instead the team brought in offensive players worse than the inadequate guys already on board. Its not like they brought in good players who didn't perform. They brought in guys everybody knew were bad players and seriously thought it would work. That's disturbing.

Homer Bailey
07-15-2009, 01:24 AM
Baker didn't blame Dickerson for Taveras lousy play on that ball. He correctly noted (as many here have said) that Chris had a responsibility to be backing up. He didn't and should have been called out on it. To pretend otherwise is to miss the entire point Baker was making.

I'm so sick of talking about this play. If CD properly backs up the play, he is in centerfield and is nowhere near being able to make the play. Baker called out CD for something that he could do nothing about to deflect the attention away from his boy WT, and it was a classless thing to do. The ball ran along the wall on the warning track. How in the world could CD think that would be the proper place to back up?

TheNext44
07-15-2009, 04:27 AM
I'm so sick of talking about this play. If CD properly backs up the play, he is in centerfield and is nowhere near being able to make the play. Baker called out CD for something that he could do nothing about to deflect the attention away from his boy WT, and it was a classless thing to do. The ball ran along the wall on the warning track. How in the world could CD think that would be the proper place to back up?

First, if you are so sick of it, then stop talking about it. :p:

Second, the bold part is factually inaccurate. Dusty called CD out for not hustling. That is something that every major leaguer can do something about. If CD backs up the play by going to CF, and it still is an inside the park home run, Dusty says nothing.

Ron Madden
07-15-2009, 05:00 AM
Worst case scenerio, 2010 CF is Stubbs, which really is not that bad.

Taveras is out there because he has 30-50 SB speed, which Dusty requires for his CF. So does Stubbs, and Stubbs is better defensively, another requirement for Dusty for a CF.

Dusty doesn't fall in love with players, he falls in love with skills like speed. If Stubbs can provide that skill in CF, and play better defense, Dusty will play him over Taveras.


I was told in the late 90s to look forward to 2003 for a winning Reds team and to just wait until next year every season since. :(

I'll never trust Dusty Bakers ability to judge defensive talent, or offensive talent for that matter.

The problem with the Reds the past few years in a nutshell is their inability to judge, acquire or keep productive talent.

Sure, Wayne got lucky an picked a few rabbits out of a hat with Phillips and Hamilton but other than those two this organization has failed to add Offensive or Defensive Talent to the major league roster.

Prospects are good things but they don't always arrive at the same time like the calvary riding in to save the day. I'm growing tired of waiting. :(

sorry for the rant :redface:

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 08:50 AM
Every pitching staff has termites -- the only question is whose house stays standing the longest.

That's a pretty fatalistic take. I don't think it's too much to ask to have an above-average starting staff. Other teams do it.

In fact, if this team ever wants to do anything in the postseason, they're going to have to be.

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 08:54 AM
Actually, in this park and in this Division, middle of the pack pitching with a top 4 or so offense is the way to go. Up until the recent poor spell, the pitching has been middle of the pack and its all I ever expected. Completely ignoring the offense over the winter was where the plan fell through. Middle of the pack pitching in GABP with a healthy share of road games in Houston and Chicago is pretty good IMO. I'm not fool enough to let a 10 day bad streak on the mound obscure the primary issue. Bottom 3 in offense while playing in GABP is akin to putting a minor league team out there.

As far as the Pitching goes, I really don't disagree as much as it seems. I was never sold on Owings. I think Cueto is too young to do the things expected of him. I didn't expect Bailey to be a competent (not good) number 4 until next year. I was worried about Volquez 2nd half of 2008 and had some questions about both Harang and Arroyo. But, status quo with that group has the chance of still being good enough to win. The offensive guys that ended 2008 needed additional pieces to have a chance to be competitive. Instead the team brought in offensive players worse than the inadequate guys already on board. Its not like they brought in good players who didn't perform. They brought in guys everybody knew were bad players and seriously thought it would work. That's disturbing.

Considering that this defense has been top five all season long, I'd argue the status quo is full of headaches.

This starting staff, as it has gotten worse and worse as the defense maintains, has begun to run out of excuses.

Scrap Irony
07-15-2009, 11:36 AM
Jocketty's MO pretty much is that if they can provide enough pop to keep defenses honest, he'll take good gloves over poor ones. Especially in the OF. He prefers fast, 20-ish homer guys who take walks. He doesn't normally seem to care about K's.

That should provide evidence enough that the Reds would keep both or at least be willing to play bothStubbs and Heisey, as Stubbs is clearly an upgrade to Taveras and Heisey has that pop. With either Dickerson or Bruce in the OF as well (depending on match-ups and platoons), you could have four legitimate CFers among the five OF spots in 2010.

That's a lot of defense.

But not much offense.

Seattle tried that this season and met with some success, especially in its pitcher's effectiveness.

In order to carry those OFers offensively, however, Jocketty has been willing to sacrifice IF defense, particularly at the SS position. He looks for power from his IF. And not just power, but good at-bats as well. He'll accept some hackers, but, for the most part, he's looking for the infield to carry the team.

In 2010, Cincinnati should have half an infield like that, in Phillips and Votto. Add in Frazier or EdE at the hot corner and the Reds simply need to find a good-hitting SS and a solid hitting back-up catcher.

Because, you know how easy it is to find a guy who can hit and play SS. They're everywhere. And always available.

His pitching plan differs depending on what he's got. He does appear to like pitchers that throw strikes, though that's probably more a reflection of the excellence of Duncan, as they didn't throw strikes before signing with St. Louis. This staff is just as good as the ones he trotted out in Cardinal Country for most years. (This assumes everyone's healthy and Bailey continues to progress.)

buckeyenut
07-15-2009, 01:53 PM
Here is what I'd like to see...top notch defenders at SS and 3B added and playing every day. If we do that, we have an absolutely outstanding defense, which makes the pitching look better which makes it much easier to trade pitching for offense as long as we understand that. Mediocre pitching looks good, good pitching looks great, and maybe you can get more in a trade for offense, since everyone needs pitching.

GAC
07-15-2009, 08:55 PM
Arroyo's numbers this year are dirt-cellar. Do you see him turning it around at 33? Particularly when he no longer K's people?

Who said anything about turning it around? And I'm not simply talking about this year either; but his overall career. But if you're going to refer to Arroyo's performance this year as "dirt cellar", then take a good hard look at Owings' numbers this year in comparison. Yes, he's an improvement over what we've thrown out there in recent years as a #5 starter. But he hasn't shown me YET that he's anything more then a #5.

Is Owings going to get to the point where he consistently gives you 200+ IPs/year? We'll see. Right now he can't seem to get out of the 5th inning without having already thrown 100 pitches. His K rate is comparable to Arroyo's, yet Owings throws more pitches/inning, and has greater control problems (walks). Arroyo has throw 2 complete games this year? How many QS does Owings have in comparison to Arroyo?

Now son't come back on here and try to say that I'm making some great defense of Arroyo (because I'm not). I'd love to see them unload this guy, and have advocated such in the past.

But to deem Owings as Arroyo's replacement, I then have to ask.... which one? The 2009 version (which ain't saying much)? Or the Arroyo we've seen in the past where he has proven to be above league average who has proven to be pretty durable and give you innings and quality starts. Yeah, he's going to throw out his duds when his breaking stuff ain't working.

But Owings hasn't shown signs of doing that YET.

Falls City Beer
07-15-2009, 08:58 PM
Who said anything about turning it around? And I'm not simply talking about this year either; but his overall career. But if you're going to refer to Arroyo's performance this year as "dirt cellar", then take a good hard look at Owings' numbers this year in comparison. Yes, he's an improvement over what we've thrown out there in recent years as a #5 starter. But he hasn't shown me YET that he's anything more then a #5.

Is Owings going to get to the point where he consistently gives you 200+ IPs/year? We'll see. Right now he can't seem to get out of the 5th inning without having already thrown 100 pitches. His K rate is comparable to Arroyo's, yet Owings throws more pitches/inning, and has greater control problems (walks). Arroyo has throw 2 complete games this year? How many QS does Owings have in comparison to Arroyo?

Now son't come back on here and try to say that I'm making some great defense of Arroyo (because I'm not). I'd love to see them unload this guy, and have advocated such in the past.

But to deem Owings as Arroyo's replacement, I then have to ask.... which one? The 2009 version (which ain't saying much)? Or the Arroyo we've seen in the past where he has proven to be above league average who has proven to be pretty durable and give you innings and quality starts. Yeah, he's going to throw out his duds when his breaking stuff ain't working.

But Owings hasn't shown signs of doing that YET.

Owings is Arroyo 2006-2008. Cheaper and with a better bat.

Highlifeman21
07-15-2009, 09:08 PM
Owings is Arroyo 2006-2008. Cheaper and with a better bat.

Which is precisely what this cheap ass team needs.

Cheap players, marginal production.

Right now, Arroyo's an expensive player with below marginal production.