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OnBaseMachine
07-15-2009, 04:05 PM
31. Yonder Alonso (BA had him at #15)
56. Todd Frazier
66. Chris Heisey
75. Zach Stewart

Travis Wood and Drew Stubbs received votes.

http://firstinning.com/?p=362

I'd move Heisey and Stewart up a little bit but that's just me. If Stubbs can rebound and get his OPS back up over .775 then he'll probably crack the top 100. Mike Leake could potentially sneak in too and maybe Yorman Rodriguez if he continues to play well in the GCL.

dougdirt
07-15-2009, 04:21 PM
31. Yonder Alonso (BA had him at #15)
56. Todd Frazier
66. Chris Heisey
75. Zach Stewart

Travis Wood and Drew Stubbs received votes.

http://firstinning.com/?p=362

I'd move Heisey and Stewart up a little bit but that's just me. If Stubbs can rebound and get his OPS back up over .775 then he'll probably crack the top 100. Mike Leake could potentially sneak in too and maybe Yorman Rodriguez if he continues to play well in the GCL.

With Alonso, one guy really brought down his ranking when he ranked him in the 80's. Everyone else had him inside the top 25. Frazier and Heisey both missed one ballot, Stewart missed 2 but was inside the top 60 on the others.

Travis Wood had 1 vote and came in at #100 on one ballot. Stubbs was in the 90's on two ballots. I really wanted to vote for Yorman in my Top 100, but decided to leave him off and wait to see how the season wraps up with him and other guys of his ilk (bonus babies with only a few weeks of playing time right now).

Benihana
07-15-2009, 04:35 PM
Stewart should be between Alonso and Frazier, and as mentioned, Alonso could be a little higher. Other than that, these look about right.

redsfanmia
07-15-2009, 08:10 PM
Will Carrol said the Reds have no prospects in their entire organization.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2009, 08:23 PM
Will Carrol said the Reds have no prospects in their entire organization.

Where did he say that? If he said that, he's a fool.

Pony Boy
07-16-2009, 03:28 PM
Doug- did the Reds screw up by picking Yonder ahead of Smoak? Do you have Smoak rated higher than Alonso right now?

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 03:40 PM
Doug- did the Reds screw up by picking Yonder ahead of Smoak? Do you have Smoak rated higher than Alonso right now?

I had Smoak at 11 and Yonder at 12. They profile very similarly. Both have to prove they can hit lefties still, but both have shown solid plate discipline against them. Overall they have similar bats and overall their defense is comparable right now. All of the 'Smoak is a gold glover' talk was just that. Talk. He may be a little athletic over there, but he isn't all that good over at the bag right now.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2009, 03:47 PM
I really wanted Smoak, who's not only more athletic, but a switch hitter. I see Alonso as a Sean Casey clone, with perhaps a bit more power. Hope I'm wrong about that.

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 03:48 PM
Doug- did the Reds screw up by picking Yonder ahead of Smoak? Do you have Smoak rated higher than Alonso right now?

I do. I admit Alonso looks like he will be a very good hitter, I just don't think it was the right 1st round pick for a NL team. Alonso projects to play only 1 position for the Reds. If the Reds were in the AL where Alonso could DH as well it would make more sense.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 03:49 PM
I really wanted Smoak, who's not only more athletic, but a switch hitter. I see Alonso as a Sean Casey clone, with perhaps a bit more power. Hope I'm wrong about that.
I see Alonso as Adrian Gonzalez with better plate discipline. At least before this season where the power has gone from very good to incredible.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2009, 03:50 PM
So Joey Votto, then?

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 03:50 PM
I do. I admit Alonso looks like he will be a very good hitter, I just don't think it was the right 1st round pick for a NL team. Alonso projects to play only 1 position for the Reds. If the Reds were in the AL where Alonso could DH as well it would make more sense.

Then you don't. Smoak is only a 1B as well, so you can't really agree that the Reds messed up taking Alonso over Smoak based on the fact that Alonso can only play 1 position for the Reds.

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 03:54 PM
Then you don't. Smoak is only a 1B as well, so you can't really agree that the Reds messed up taking Alonso over Smoak based on the fact that Alonso can only play 1 position for the Reds.

Is Smoak a switch hitter?

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 03:55 PM
So Joey Votto, then?

I think he can be better than Joey Votto offensively given Joey Votto having normal luck on balls in play. Votto is a very good hitter, but he isn't a .350/.440/.600 hitter. He is more of a .290/.375/.525 hitter, perhaps slightly better at his peak. I think Alonso can be better than that offensively at his peak.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 03:55 PM
Is Smoak a switch hitter?

Yeah, but he struggles to hit lefties to this point in his career.

TRF
07-16-2009, 04:38 PM
I think he can be better than Joey Votto offensively given Joey Votto having normal luck on balls in play. Votto is a very good hitter, but he isn't a .350/.440/.600 hitter. He is more of a .290/.375/.525 hitter, perhaps slightly better at his peak. I think Alonso can be better than that offensively at his peak.

I think Votto is what he is until he proves he isn't.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 04:56 PM
I think Votto is what he is until he proves he isn't.
If you think he is going to be the historical outlier to have a BABIP over .400 for his career you can keep thinking that. I simply can't do that.

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 05:10 PM
I think he can be better than Joey Votto offensively given Joey Votto having normal luck on balls in play. Votto is a very good hitter, but he isn't a .350/.440/.600 hitter. He is more of a .290/.375/.525 hitter, perhaps slightly better at his peak. I think Alonso can be better than that offensively at his peak.

Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 05:19 PM
Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.

Albert Pujols does the exact same thing. He isn't sporting a .400 BABIP. No one ever has over a career. There is a reason for it.... its just not possible. Sure, its not entirely luck with Votto that his BABIP is higher than normal, but it is absolutely 100% luck that its over .400 right now. If he were in the .310-.325 range his OPS would be in the of .885-.915 if he lost just 1 double and the rest singles to keep that BABIP.

Pony Boy
07-16-2009, 05:20 PM
Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.

I'll second that. Take Bruce as the counter-example and his unbelievably low BABIP. Its not all bad luck that is producing that number. Bruce is just a pure fly-ball hitter this year. He seems to pop up to the outfield on every out. He isnt driving the ball like Votto, he is getting under the ball.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 05:29 PM
I'll second that. Take Bruce as the counter-example and his unbelievably low BABIP. Its not all bad luck that is producing that number. Bruce is just a pure fly-ball hitter this year. He seems to pop up to the outfield on every out. He isnt driving the ball like Votto, he is getting under the ball.

Joey Votto isn't a statistical outlier. He isn't a better hitter of the baseball than a guy like Albert Pujols is. He just isn't. Pujols has a career .317 BABIP, which is higher than league average because he simply is just a little bit better than most everyone else. Ignore facts if you like because they suggest something you don't want to believe, but I just can't get behind that regardless of how much I want to hope Votto is a 1.050 OPS player.

bucksfan2
07-16-2009, 05:43 PM
Joey Votto isn't a statistical outlier. He isn't a better hitter of the baseball than a guy like Albert Pujols is. He just isn't. Pujols has a career .317 BABIP, which is higher than league average because he simply is just a little bit better than most everyone else. Ignore facts if you like because they suggest something you don't want to believe, but I just can't get behind that regardless of how much I want to hope Votto is a 1.050 OPS player.

Albert Pujols > Votto. But I also think because of reputation Votto will see more better pitches that Pujols will. Pitchers don't want Pujols to beat them, Votto just doesn't have that kind of respect right now. That could be a big reason why Votto has a much higher BABIP than Pujols. Will Votto's numbers regress as the season goes along? quite possibly. But according to a scout
"He gets better every time I see him. I think he is going to contend for a batting title one of these year, and he hasnít maxed out his power potential, either."

Maybe Votto isn't a 1.050 OPS player, but then again, maybe he is.

dougdirt
07-16-2009, 05:49 PM
Albert Pujols > Votto. But I also think because of reputation Votto will see more better pitches that Pujols will. Pitchers don't want Pujols to beat them, Votto just doesn't have that kind of respect right now. That could be a big reason why Votto has a much higher BABIP than Pujols. Will Votto's numbers regress as the season goes along? quite possibly. But according to a scout

Maybe Votto isn't a 1.050 OPS player, but then again, maybe he is.

Votto may see a few more hittable pitches, but that would have nothing to do with BABIP unless you are suggesting Pujols swings at bad pitches.

And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.

osuceltic
07-16-2009, 05:57 PM
I really wanted Smoak, who's not only more athletic, but a switch hitter. I see Alonso as a Sean Casey clone, with perhaps a bit more power. Hope I'm wrong about that.

That's who he reminds me of also, with that inside-out, left-center field gap swing. Below-average athleticism and speed. If he can't learn to hit lefties just a little bit, he won't reach that level. I expect him to get better, but his utter ineptitude against lefties is why I don't think he's anywhere near as advanced as others do.

I don't know if Frazier will have a better OPS, but I think he'll be a better player. Of course, I'm pretty sure Alonso will become whatever he will become in another uniform, and it wouldn't surprise me if Frazier does as well.

TRF
07-16-2009, 06:52 PM
Votto may see a few more hittable pitches, but that would have nothing to do with BABIP unless you are suggesting Pujols swings at bad pitches.

And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.

It is until it isn't grasshopper. Maybe it's a hot streak. Maybe it's his ceiling. Maybe he's BABIP lucky, and it'll normalize. Maybe once it does though his OPS won't be affected because he adjusts.

Projections are cool and all, but sometimes seeing is believing. Votto has a knack for hitting the ball hard the other way, no discernible splits and seems to still be learning his craft.

AtomicDumpling
07-16-2009, 07:39 PM
Do you know if there was a pre-season version of the top 100 prospects on First Inning's website? I would also be interested in looking at lists from previous years as well. I looked around and couldn't find it.

dougdirt
07-17-2009, 01:38 AM
Do you know if there was a pre-season version of the top 100 prospects on First Inning's website? I would also be interested in looking at lists from previous years as well. I looked around and couldn't find it.

If there was one, it wasn't done by anyone involved with the site now. We are all new to FI over the last two months.

dougdirt
07-17-2009, 01:40 AM
It is until it isn't grasshopper. Maybe it's a hot streak. Maybe it's his ceiling. Maybe he's BABIP lucky, and it'll normalize. Maybe once it does though his OPS won't be affected because he adjusts.

Projections are cool and all, but sometimes seeing is believing. Votto has a knack for hitting the ball hard the other way, no discernible splits and seems to still be learning his craft.

Ignore it if you want. Its just not possible that he continues to be a .400 BABIP player regardless of what he does. No one has ever continued doing it. Ever. In the history of the game.

bucksfan2
07-17-2009, 11:08 AM
And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.

Why not?

TRF
07-17-2009, 11:55 AM
Ignore it if you want. Its just not possible that he continues to be a .400 BABIP player regardless of what he does. No one has ever continued doing it. Ever. In the history of the game.

And you can skip the part of the post where I said his BABIP could normalize and he still might not drop his OPS. His SLG and OBP could still be similar. His power is increasing. I do worry about his lack of walks in July, but long term, I'm confident he'll be fine.

dougdirt
07-17-2009, 02:59 PM
Why not?

For the reasons I have mentioned in this post already.

And TRF, For Votto's true skillset to be a 1.050 OPS guy he would need to be on the same level as Albert Pujols. He just isn't no matter how badly we want him to be.

bucksfan2
07-17-2009, 03:19 PM
For the reasons I have mentioned in this post already.

And TRF, For Votto's true skillset to be a 1.050 OPS guy he would need to be on the same level as Albert Pujols. He just isn't no matter how badly we want him to be.

Why can't he be? I know everything says he won't be that great of a player. He may be a very good player, just not great. But every great player had a starting point. If half way through Pujols first season someone said he would be a perennial 1.000+ OPS player you would have laughed. We all would have said his skill level just isn't that high.

I realize what I am saying is pretty illogical but in reality all the great players have defied logic. Every great player has a starting point and every great player has bunch of people saying he will regress or he just isn't that good. The problem with that sentiment, is that the great players are that good.

I guess my point is you don't really know what the ceiling of Votto's true skill set is.

dougdirt
07-17-2009, 03:24 PM
Why can't he be? I know everything says he won't be that great of a player. He may be a very good player, just not great. But every great player had a starting point. If half way through Pujols first season someone said he would be a perennial 1.000+ OPS player you would have laughed. We all would have said his skill level just isn't that high.

I realize what I am saying is pretty illogical but in reality all the great players have defied logic. Every great player has a starting point and every great player has bunch of people saying he will regress or he just isn't that good. The problem with that sentiment, is that the great players are that good.

I guess my point is you don't really know what the ceiling of Votto's true skill set is.

Sure, I don't really know, but all of the data of his entire career suggests its not likely. We can look at him play and see that its not likely. We can look at the numbers and see that it isn't likely.

Mario-Rijo
07-17-2009, 05:50 PM
Sure, I don't really know, but all of the data of his entire career suggests its not likely. We can look at him play and see that its not likely. We can look at the numbers and see that it isn't likely.

Really, what about his offensive play can you point to right now as a weakness? What are you seeing with the eyes that say he can't sustain that high an OPS?

dougdirt
07-18-2009, 03:02 AM
Really, what about his offensive play can you point to right now as a weakness? What are you seeing with the eyes that say he can't sustain that high an OPS?

Its not a weakness that he has. Its just that the guy isn't GREAT at multiple things. He doesn't have a great walk rate. He doesn't have great power. He doesn't have great plate discipline. He is good at all of those things. He isn't great at any of them and everyone on the list is great at the very least of 1 thing listed in there and mostly two of them.

There have been 76 players since 1960 with 400 PA and an OPS of 1.050 in the Majors. If we toss Votto in with that group he has the 3rd worst K/BB at 1.63. More than half of the players on the list are better than 1.00. Votto has the 10th worst HR/PA. Votto has the 10th worst K rate. Votto has the 6th worst walk rate.

The average of the 76 players have a 17.2% walk rate, nearly 6% higher than Votto's. The average K rate is 14%, 4.6% lower than Votto's. The average HR rate was every 15.3 PA, 4.4 better than Votto's.

Votto currently just doesn't have the skillset right now and honestly, isn't likely to get it. The guys on this list are the best of the best or played in Colorado and were still very good players (Walker and Helton).

bucksfan2
07-18-2009, 11:44 AM
Its not a weakness that he has. Its just that the guy isn't GREAT at multiple things. He doesn't have a great walk rate. He doesn't have great power. He doesn't have great plate discipline. He is good at all of those things. He isn't great at any of them and everyone on the list is great at the very least of 1 thing listed in there and mostly two of them.

His career isn't stagnant. From what I have seen in Votto he is constantly improving. His power may not be "great" but he has the look of a 30HR hitter. Power really isn't the issue because we have seen him hit some blasts. I can see him topping out around 40 HRs in a season but most of the time staying around 30. Not a great power hitter, but pretty darn good when you consider his overall game.


There have been 76 players since 1960 with 400 PA and an OPS of 1.050 in the Majors. If we toss Votto in with that group he has the 3rd worst K/BB at 1.63. More than half of the players on the list are better than 1.00. Votto has the 10th worst HR/PA. Votto has the 10th worst K rate. Votto has the 6th worst walk rate.

The average of the 76 players have a 17.2% walk rate, nearly 6% higher than Votto's. The average K rate is 14%, 4.6% lower than Votto's. The average HR rate was every 15.3 PA, 4.4 better than Votto's.

Votto currently just doesn't have the skillset right now and honestly, isn't likely to get it. The guys on this list are the best of the best or played in Colorado and were still very good players (Walker and Helton).

I was looking at Votto's career numbers as well as his 162 game career average. In almost every category he is trending upwards. He is constantly improving. He has become a much better all around hitter this year from last years season.

I just don't understand where you say he doesn't have the skill set. He isn't a finished product. He has several things going for him that most good to great hitters have. He has good splits against both righties and lefties. He has the ability to hit the ball well to all fields. He is a patient hitter at the plate and a very good 2 strike hitter. He has the power, its just a question of where it will top out. If he increases his walk rate a little bit while decreasing his K's, which I defiantly can see happening, he can become a great hitter. I just think it is a little premature to say Votto doesn't have the skill set to be as good as he has been this year.

dougdirt
07-18-2009, 12:52 PM
His career isn't stagnant. From what I have seen in Votto he is constantly improving. His power may not be "great" but he has the look of a 30HR hitter. Power really isn't the issue because we have seen him hit some blasts. I can see him topping out around 40 HRs in a season but most of the time staying around 30. Not a great power hitter, but pretty darn good when you consider his overall game.



I was looking at Votto's career numbers as well as his 162 game career average. In almost every category he is trending upwards. He is constantly improving. He has become a much better all around hitter this year from last years season.

I just don't understand where you say he doesn't have the skill set. He isn't a finished product. He has several things going for him that most good to great hitters have. He has good splits against both righties and lefties. He has the ability to hit the ball well to all fields. He is a patient hitter at the plate and a very good 2 strike hitter. He has the power, its just a question of where it will top out. If he increases his walk rate a little bit while decreasing his K's, which I defiantly can see happening, he can become a great hitter. I just think it is a little premature to say Votto doesn't have the skill set to be as good as he has been this year.

I really don't think its premature to suggest it. Votto has NEVER shown the great abilities at any step of the way. He has shown good, above average abilities, but never great.

Bonds, McGwire, Howard, Mantle, Arod, Thome, Belle, Pujols, Walker, Helton, Aaron, Palmeiro, Chipper, McCovey, Vlad, Manny, Sheffield, Thomas, Giambi, Griffey, Bagwell, Giles, Edgar Martinez....

All of those guys had a GREAT skill along with very good other ones if not other GREAT skills. Joey Votto just doesn't seem to have those. He isn't a guy who is going to walk 100+ times a year. He isn't a guy who is going to hit 40+ HR's a year.

If we limit it to 500 at bats since 1960, only 11 players have not hit 40 HR's and have OPS'd over 1.050. Only Fred Lynn and Lance Berkman didn't walk 100+ times while not hitting 40 HR. Berkman hit 55 doubles, 5 triples and 34 HR's while walking 92 times. Lynn had 42 doubles, 1 triple and 39 HR while walking 82 times and striking out just 79 times.

Joey just hasn't shown a skillset like that. Anywhere. Not in the minors. Not in the majors. The only thing he has shown that allows him to OPS over 1.000 is a .400+ BABIP.

And of course Votto's numbers look like they are trending upwards.... he has a .405 BABIP this year. Votto has increased his power slightly this year, but he is also striking out more than last season. Thats going in the wrong direction.

Mario-Rijo
07-18-2009, 05:08 PM
I really don't think its premature to suggest it. Votto has NEVER shown the great abilities at any step of the way. He has shown good, above average abilities, but never great.

Bonds, McGwire, Howard, Mantle, Arod, Thome, Belle, Pujols, Walker, Helton, Aaron, Palmeiro, Chipper, McCovey, Vlad, Manny, Sheffield, Thomas, Giambi, Griffey, Bagwell, Giles, Edgar Martinez....

All of those guys had a GREAT skill along with very good other ones if not other GREAT skills. Joey Votto just doesn't seem to have those. He isn't a guy who is going to walk 100+ times a year. He isn't a guy who is going to hit 40+ HR's a year.

If we limit it to 500 at bats since 1960, only 11 players have not hit 40 HR's and have OPS'd over 1.050. Only Fred Lynn and Lance Berkman didn't walk 100+ times while not hitting 40 HR. Berkman hit 55 doubles, 5 triples and 34 HR's while walking 92 times. Lynn had 42 doubles, 1 triple and 39 HR while walking 82 times and striking out just 79 times.

Joey just hasn't shown a skillset like that. Anywhere. Not in the minors. Not in the majors. The only thing he has shown that allows him to OPS over 1.000 is a .400+ BABIP.

And of course Votto's numbers look like they are trending upwards.... he has a .405 BABIP this year. Votto has increased his power slightly this year, but he is also striking out more than last season. Thats going in the wrong direction.

What skill does Brian Giles have that Votto doesn't? I just don't agree completely with you Doug. I agree he isn't likely to improve his power much in his prime years I can't see him topping say 35. I see him in the 25-30 group for the most part. However his plate discipline is outstanding, and just because he prefers to hit his way on base shouldn't subtract from them. His skill as I see it is bat control which is an important skill to have. I think his strength lies in his plate discipline and his ability to square a ball and hit it hard. I think he's a .300 hitter or a little above who will walk 60-80 times a year with 25ish HR's and 40ish doubles. So whatever that comes up to OPS wise I guess is what I see for him.

That may not be Pujols good but I submit that I don't realistically see Alonso being much better if at all. He could be but he doesn't run as well as Votto and who knows if he will ever actually tap into all of his power potential, as of right now he is still primarily an opposite field hitter and if he remains that way I don't see any more power numbers from him than Votto. If he starts using the whole field great but until then he's not potentially any better IMO. I do believe however that Votto despite the OPS will remain as productive if not moreso than Alonso because Votto like all great hitters puts the ball in play with good success, and I don't think that it's luck.

Scrap Irony
07-18-2009, 05:16 PM
Your numbers for Votto (and, I guess, Alonso) are significantly below the 1.000+ OPS. I think, in his prime years, Votto might actually hit 35 homers (assuming health), with a BA over 320 and 75-90 BBs (if only because he's the only real bat in the Cincinnati lineup). That's scratching the floor of a 1.000 OPS.

And I agree with your Alonso analysis, BTW. Not enough power and really weak so far against southpaws. If he improves those numbers significanty, I might see the idea of him improving.

paintmered
07-18-2009, 05:21 PM
This isn't the forum for Joey Votto discussion. Please get this thread back on topic.