Arroyo - A Stronger 2nd Half Pitcher?

[RedFanAlways1966]

When looking at Bronson Arroyo's stats over the last 2-1/2 seasons, there is a stark difference between the first three months and last three months of the season. Leads me to ask, "Is Bronson Arroyo a stronger 2nd half pitcher?"

Apr, May, June
> 51 GS, 296.0 IP, 350 H, 183 ER
> 211 K, 110 BB, 25 QS (49.0%)
>> 5.56 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 15-23 record
* Team record 20-31. Will win 65 games in a season at this rate.


July, Aug, Sept
> 36 GS, 233.2 IP, 231 H, 89 ER
> 173 K, 64 BB, 25 QS (69.4%)
>> 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 19-11 record
* Team record 20-16. Will win 90 games in a season at this rate.

Teams in the playoffs look for a seasoned guy who can try to lead their team to the postseason in the 2nd half. Is he expendable before the end of the month for young talent or a bat? If so, should Jocketty showcase the above-numbers to interested parties? While the 2nd half numbers are not drop dead, they are pretty good and should be showcased for a doable trade. If Bailey can finally "get it" (has 2 very good starts in July) and Volquez can get healthy, Arroyo seems right for a deal to upgrade the future with a needed component.

[savafan]

I honestly don't think Arroyo's going to bring much in the way of a trade to help this team. You don't usually get prospects for pitchers with 5+ ERAs, you usually get suspects. A low level suspect minor league player isn't going to put this team over the hump. I think, when it comes to Arroyo, you just have to swallow and take what you can get from him for the duration of his contract. Don't forget, he's led the team in wins the past two years.

[RedFanAlways1966]

I honestly don't think Arroyo's going to bring much in the way of a trade to help this team. You don't usually get prospects for pitchers with 5+ ERAs, you usually get suspects. A low level suspect minor league player isn't going to put this team over the hump. I think, when it comes to Arroyo, you just have to swallow and take what you can get from him for the duration of his contract. Don't forget, he's led the team in wins the past two years.

You may be right. But perhaps a desparate team (how many arms will be available at the deadline?) will take Arroyo's salary... $11 million in 2010 and $11 million (can escalate to $13 million, based on innings) for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

That money might (if the REDS spend it!) yield a player in the market for next year and beyond. I like the future (next year?) on the mound with Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Owings & Bailey. The future needs a part ($11 mill/yr to spend) that can help.

You have starters, bullpen and position players... what do the REDS need? Starters look workable. Bullpen seems good this year, but has some age issues down the road. I guess the top need of the three is position players.

- Shortstop
- LF/CF

Can a good OF or SS be had in the offseason for $11 mill/yr over 2 years? I'd take a chance on it (hopefully not another Taveras signing) with the loss of Arroyo to make the team better next year. You hope the $11 mill/yr upgrade and the starters w/out Arroyo work out. I am willing to take that chance if I am in charge. And you might get lucky with a future star if you deal him for decent ML talent (Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz) on top of the $11 million upgrade elsewhere.

Of course you also have to sell Bronson (look at those 2nd half numbers! how many starters will be available?) and his contract if you are Walt J. to make it work. That is why he gets paid the big bucks. :)

[TheNext44]

The A's traded Joe Blanton last year when he had a 5 - 12 record and a 4.96 ERA, while pitching is a pitchers park. They got Adrian Cardenas, Matt Spencer and Josh Outman.

Outman, currently their loogy in the A's pen, has a 1.15 WHIP, and a 7.12 K/9. Cardenas, a 1st round draft pick is a middle infielder with this line in AA and AAA this year: .324 .397 .446 .843
Spencer, a third round pick, currently has this line in A and AA: .271 .321 .471 .792

I know Blanton is younger and makes less money, but if the Reds got one of those guys for Arroyo, they'd be very pleased.

Bottom line: Contending teams always need pitching, especially veteran innings eaters.

[savafan]

I still contend that the players you get for Harang would make a higher impact.

[TheNext44]

I still contend that the players you get for Harang would make a higher impact.

If that's the case, then trade Harang and keep Arroyo.

Harang is a better pitcher, but not by much.

Over the past 2 1/2 years (not counting Arroyo's career year), Harang has a 4.19 ERA, Arroyo a 4.68 (not counting Fri night). Harang has a 7.9 K/9, Arroyo a 6.5. Harang 3.6 K/BB, Arroyo 2.2. Harang has allowed 79 homers, Arroyo 78. And this surprising stat. Harang has had 23 games in which he has allowed 1 or less runs, Arroyo 27 games.

Harang clearly is a better pitcher. The numbers don't lie. But if you could get an every day SS or cleanup hitter for Harang, and all you could get for Arroyo is some low level prospects, it's better to trade Harang. Arroyo would provide just a notch below production, and you could get more help where you need it.

[redsfandan]

Arroyo should have one more start before the Reds next off day (next thursday). I hope he has a 3rd straight good start and then the Reds deal him. Savafan may be right that Harang would bring more in a trade but I'd rather keep Harang and deal Arroyo. That's just my preference though. I don't think we should aim for a clubs top prospect anyway but aim just a little lower. But what he could fetch in a trade is only one reason to deal Arroyo. Saving money, by not having to pay his last year, and creating a spot in the rotation for Bailey (higher potential & cheaper) would be the other benefits to a trade.

[GAC]

Teams in the hunt, and who can afford to, will overpay for a pitcher like Arroyo, if they think he can give them that extra ummff.

Teams are out there searching. For crying out loud, the Phillies are taking a chance on Pedro. ;)

[Will M]

Arroyo should have one more start before the Reds next off day (next thursday). I hope he has a 3rd straight good start and then the Reds deal him. Savafan may be right that Harang would bring more in a trade but I'd rather keep Harang and deal Arroyo. That's just my preference though. I don't think we should aim for a clubs top prospect anyway but aim just a little lower. But what he could fetch in a trade is only one reason to deal Arroyo. Saving money, by not having to pay his last year, and creating a spot in the rotation for Bailey (higher potential & cheaper) would be the other benefits to a trade.

100% agree.

[RedlegJake]

Teams in the hunt, and who can afford to, will overpay for a pitcher like Arroyo, if they think he can give them that extra ummff.

Teams are out there searching. For crying out loud, the Phillies are taking a chance on Pedro. ;)

I agree. I think Arroyo's trade value is under estimated. No you won't get 3 premier prospects but you should get one really good one, and 1 or 2 mid level guys or pretty fair guys who are a bit farther away. I think that's especially true this year when Halladay is available and then ? A team that really needs one more starter, who can eat innings and save their bullpen in the last two months would look at Arroyo as well worth a price like that, even with his contract.

[bucksfan2]

I agree. I think Arroyo's trade value is under estimated. No you won't get 3 premier prospects but you should get one really good one, and 1 or 2 mid level guys or pretty fair guys who are a bit farther away. I think that's especially true this year when Halladay is available and then ? A team that really needs one more starter, who can eat innings and save their bullpen in the last two months would look at Arroyo as well worth a price like that, even with his contract.

What we are seeing out of Arroyo is typical Arroyo. The can look like crap for a handful of games and then go out and pitch 16 scoreless innings. In the matter of 5 starts he can go from looking like a back of the rotation starter to a stopper. If Arroyo gets hot during a pennant stretch, think second half last season, he can very well be the difference for a team making the playoffs.

[redsfandan]

I agree. I think Arroyo's trade value is under estimated. No you won't get 3 premier prospects but you should get one really good one, and 1 or 2 mid level guys or pretty fair guys who are a bit farther away. I think that's especially true this year when Halladay is available and then ? A team that really needs one more starter, who can eat innings and save their bullpen in the last two months would look at Arroyo as well worth a price like that, even with his contract.
That's what I'm thinking too. Not the top prospect and maybe not the 2nd best prospect. But one of a teams top 5 prospects and another player that's ranked lower but also has a fair amount of upside. Make them both pitchers and that's even better.