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View Full Version : Do you think Dusty is really THAT bad with pitchers?



redsfandan
07-27-2009, 01:31 AM
Do you think Dusty is really THAT bad with pitchers? OR do you think too much has been made of it? I'm not saying he's great with pitchers either but I'm just asking if people think he deserves so much credit for "destroying pitchers careers" or if that's a little overrated. Again, yes or no.

Stormy
07-27-2009, 01:34 AM
I think Dusty has handled our pitching staff pretty effectively, especially this year. I think there was a legitimate complaint with him, but that he's improved each year in this regard. That's just my perception, without scrutinizing the numbers and outings.

AtomicDumpling
07-27-2009, 01:47 AM
I think Dusty is too hard on starting pitchers but handles the bullpen much better than Jerry Narron ever did.

kaldaniels
07-27-2009, 01:53 AM
I voted no. I would also vote no if the question had been "Is Dusty good with pitchers".

redsfandan
07-27-2009, 02:13 AM
Hey man (kaldaniels), that's more than fair. I'm not asking if he's good with pitchers, just whether he's really a 'pitchers worst friend' like it seeems like the popular opinion has become.

Homer Bailey
07-27-2009, 02:36 AM
I think he is bad with them but doesn't deserve to be blamed for Wood and Prior.

I don't like the way he manages a bullpen, but there really isn't any purpose to me complaining about it more than I have. Not that there ever is a purpose.

hebroncougar
07-27-2009, 10:02 AM
Here, no he hasn't been bad at all. That was my biggest fear when they hired him. Now, lineup construction is a whole other story.............

Kc61
07-27-2009, 11:10 AM
Dusty has handled the bullpen and the kids very, very well.

I think Harang has been worked too heavily, but that was true before Dusty showed up.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 11:11 AM
The Dusty beats his starters like redheaded stepchildren.

He also doesn't put his bullpen arms in positions to succeed on a regular basis.

westofyou
07-27-2009, 11:12 AM
He also doesn't put his bullpen arms in positions to succeed on a regular basis.

Rod Beck says hi

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 11:23 AM
The Dusty beats his starters like redheaded stepchildren.

He also doesn't put his bullpen arms in positions to succeed on a regular basis.

This is a myth.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 11:34 AM
Rod Beck says hi

I think The Dusty handled pitchers well in SF.

I think he started to abuse starters in Chicago, and IIRC didn't have a true closer up there, so started to mismanage his pen.

Once he got to Cincinnati, I think he's continued to abuse starters more than he should, and I don't like the way he uses his bullpen at all.

It seems like he's almost kinda damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. He'll use guys in the wrong situation to get them work, and then those guys aren't ready the next game when he really needs them.

Although, with the Reds it may just be that we don't have the right guys for the right situations.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 11:35 AM
This is a myth.

Awesome counterargument, care to elaborate?

nate
07-27-2009, 11:40 AM
This is a myth.

No it isn't. Although, he's hardly alone in saving his closer for the "save" rather than the most pivotal game situation.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 11:52 AM
Awesome counterargument, care to elaborate?

Sure.

Dusty got a lot of his rep from the destruction of Prior and Wood. Yet now the claim is that Prior's mechanics were screwed from the start and that Wood's weren't that great either. What's the real reason for their issues? Was it mechanics, overuse, steroids or something else? I have no idea, but I think that the blame he received from that era was at least a little unfair.

We also haven't seen pitchers get "beaten like reheaded stepchildren" in his tenure here. Sure he's left someone in a little longer than expected on occasion, but every manager does that. Who can we say has been consistently abused on the mound over the past 2 years?

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 11:53 AM
No it isn't. Although, he's hardly alone in saving his closer for the "save" rather than the most pivotal game situation.

Not "hardly alone". More like "similar to everyone".

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 12:06 PM
Sure.

Dusty got a lot of his rep from the destruction of Prior and Wood. Yet now the claim is that Prior's mechanics were screwed from the start and that Wood's weren't that great either. What's the real reason for their issues? Was it mechanics, overuse, steroids or something else? I have no idea, but I think that the blame he received from that era was at least a little unfair.

We also haven't seen pitchers get "beaten like reheaded stepchildren" in his tenure here. Sure he's left someone in a little longer than expected on occasion, but every manager does that. Who can we say has been consistently abused on the mound over the past 2 years?

Arroyo, Harang, Volquez

Thanks savafan! (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77478&page=2)

Those 3 were 15, 19, and 17 respectively. Expand it to top 30, and Cueto rolls in @ #27.

So, our 4 arms that saw the bulk of consistent starts in 2008, and ALL FOUR are in the top 30. You tell me what's wrong with that equation.

PAP as of 7/16/09 (http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/07/pitcher-abuse-points.html)

Here, you'll see Harang's 20th. So, at least he's moving in the correct direction. Arroyo's been absolutely crap this year (perhaps due to abuse?), and Volquez is currently injured (again, due to abuse?).

Fast forward to PAP thru 7/26 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=508446)

Harang's back up to 16th. Zoinks, shaggy! Bronson's at 26th, thankfully Cueto's down to 63.

So, Harang and Arroyo are definitely redheaded stepchildren. Cueto and Volquez aren't far behind.

nate
07-27-2009, 12:08 PM
Not "hardly alone". More like "similar to everyone".

The vernacular doesn't change my point.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 01:13 PM
Arroyo, Harang, Volquez

Thanks savafan! (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77478&page=2)

Those 3 were 15, 19, and 17 respectively. Expand it to top 30, and Cueto rolls in @ #27.

So, our 4 arms that saw the bulk of consistent starts in 2008, and ALL FOUR are in the top 30. You tell me what's wrong with that equation.

PAP as of 7/16/09 (http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/07/pitcher-abuse-points.html)

Here, you'll see Harang's 20th. So, at least he's moving in the correct direction. Arroyo's been absolutely crap this year (perhaps due to abuse?), and Volquez is currently injured (again, due to abuse?).

Fast forward to PAP thru 7/26 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=508446)

Harang's back up to 16th. Zoinks, shaggy! Bronson's at 26th, thankfully Cueto's down to 63.

So, Harang and Arroyo are definitely redheaded stepchildren. Cueto and Volquez aren't far behind.

I'm in the traderumor camp on that one. You cannot look at that chart in a vacuum.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 01:23 PM
I'm in the traderumor camp on that one. You cannot look at that chart in a vacuum.

So Arroyo, Volquez, Harang and Cueto showing up in the top 30 of PAP for all of 2008 doesn't concern you?

Sure as heck concerns me.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 01:25 PM
The vernacular doesn't change my point.

First off, I will say that I think it would make sense to unlock certain relievers from their "in stone" roles.

But let's look at how that might cascade. Say Baker tells Cordero that he is going to start to use him in the 7th and 8 innings instead of holding him out until a save situation. Potential repercussions:


Cordero would probably wig out since he is losing the high profile role. Could very well demand a trade, which would then take away any leverage from Cincy and make them trade him at any cost.
Closers get paid more in the market than middle relievers do. How will Cincy ever attract a high profile reliever (or keep a good, home grown reliever) if they know that they will have their value smothered in this way?
There is a ton of risk here. The last 2 times I distinctly remember this happening is when Cincy wouldn't use Coffey as the closer and used Weathers. Cincy kept flip flopping back and forth with Coffey as set-up and closer based upon the struggles of DW. Boston did it a while back as well and failed miserably. If it does fail, you look like a complete idiot as going totally against the grain and failing.
Closers get paid the big bucks for being able to do their thing in the highest pressure situations (i.e. typically 9th inning). No need to pay a guy $40MM+ to pitch in the 7th or 8th.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 01:30 PM
So Arroyo, Volquez, Harang and Cueto showing up in the top 30 of PAP for all of 2008 doesn't concern you?

Sure as heck concerns me.

Would you be concerned if Cincy had a rotation of Lincecum, Cain and Lester?

The pitchers on that list are generally the better pitchers in the league. The better you are, the further you go in a game, which means you log more miles on your arm. I'm not sure how much that chart should really worry us. If it is true, then we are going to see the top pitchers falling at an alarming rate.

nate
07-27-2009, 01:34 PM
First off, I will say that I think it would make sense to unlock certain relievers from their "in stone" roles.

But let's look at how that might cascade. Say Baker tells Cordero that he is going to start to use him in the 7th and 8 innings instead of holding him out until a save situation.

Where did I say Dusty should use Cordero is some rigid preset role?

Use the best pitcher in the highest leverage situation, the stupid "save" stat be damned.

Crazy talk, I know.

Homer Bailey
07-27-2009, 01:35 PM
Where did I say Dusty should use Cordero is some rigid preset role?

Use the best pitcher in the highest leverage situation, the stupid "save" stat be damned.

Crazy talk, I know.

Could not disagree less. :beerme:

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 01:48 PM
Would you be concerned if Cincy had a rotation of Lincecum, Cain and Lester?

The pitchers on that list are generally the better pitchers in the league. The better you are, the further you go in a game, which means you log more miles on your arm. I'm not sure how much that chart should really worry us. If it is true, then we are going to see the top pitchers falling at an alarming rate.

I understand traderumor's logic.

2008 was Cueto's 1st year on the big stage. There's no reason for him to make the top 30 of PAP out of the gate.

2008 was Volquez's 1st year doing anything productive. Volquez v. 2009 suggests Volquez making the top 20 of PAP in 2008 was counterproductive to his continuing development.

Harang's a workhorse, but he hasn't been the same since 2007. Harang was abused by Narron, and The Dusty continued the abuse. Harang's clearly not the same workhorse that he was in 2006 and 2007, so while I won't say there's causation, I'm definitely saying there's correlation.

Arroyo's a rubber arm who's no good. Logically, I can't imagine he'll become more effective if he continues to show up in the top 20 of PAP lists.

The thing that I feel directly impacts our starters showing up on PAP lists is having a crappy bullpen. By having a crappy bullpen, you'll see starters get more abuse, plain and simple.

If we had Lincecum (which we should, btw), I'd be concerned if his average pitches per start goes over 110. Sure, every pitcher's gonna have that occasional start between 115 and 120, but it shouldn't be the norm. Over time, you'll wear down even the best arms.

VR
07-27-2009, 01:48 PM
As far as pitch counts and stress.....Dusty has far exceeded my expectations.

As far as preparing them mentally and with a gameplan.....not so much, but that is most likely a Dick Pole/ scouting department issue.

These guys all pitched pretty well to start the season. As they are facing teams more often...they are getting pounded regularly. Opponents have picked up on their patterns, and have adjusted.

This coaching team is fantastic at checkers. Unfortunately, most of the good teams are playing chess.

RedsManRick
07-27-2009, 03:36 PM
Dusty has been surprisingly reasonable with his general use of his pitchers, pitch counts and usage frequency and the like. I think the problems likely result from his poor tactical approach. While every manager is a mix of short and long term thinking, Dusty leans heavier on the short term side than most.

He rode Prior in to the ground because he felt that was the path to the playoffs that year. He managed the San Diego game the way he did because he wanted to end it in the 11th and when they didn't win it in the 11th he still wanted to give the every opportunity to win.

Dusty is clearly an ex-player who tries to manage like he's the 26th player. It pretty much all flows from that.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 03:48 PM
Where did I say Dusty should use Cordero is some rigid preset role?

Use the best pitcher in the highest leverage situation, the stupid "save" stat be damned.

Crazy talk, I know.

I think you misunderstood my post. I didn't say that. What I was trying to say was that Dusty would tell Cordero that, instead of being the 9th inning "save" guy, he may be used now in the 7th or 8th if the situation calls for it.

Maybe I didn't expand on that enough, but I thought it came through enough

nate
07-27-2009, 04:22 PM
I think you misunderstood my post. I didn't say that. What I was trying to say was that Dusty would tell Cordero that, instead of being the 9th inning "save" guy, he may be used now in the 7th or 8th if the situation calls for it.

Maybe I didn't expand on that enough, but I thought it came through enough

Again, my point is use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situation. Don't use him in situations dictated by a shiny, irrelevant, stat.

In other words, I think the "save" stat has dictated strategy. I think that's wrong.

edabbs44
07-27-2009, 04:25 PM
Again, my point is use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situation. Don't use him in situations dictated by a shiny, irrelevant, stat.

In other words, I think the "save" stat has dictated strategy. I think that's wrong.

I am failing to see the difference in what we are saying.

While I agree with you from a tactical standpoint, I think there are also non-game related repercussions that may make it a little less sensible.

klw
07-27-2009, 04:36 PM
My only complaint has been a lack of a hook at times and usage patterns in extra inning games- primarily in San Diego. The extra inning issue is primarily caused by the structural flaw in the set-up of the pen without a long inning mop up type guy. But the structural flay would be more of a GM problem and not Dusty's fault. Part of the problem with pitching is that they know that they will have a lineup like this trying to score.

Willy Taveras cf
Alex Gonzalez ss
Joey Votto 1b
Brandon Phillips 2b
Edwin Encarnacion 3b
Laynce Nix lf
Jonny Gomes rf
Craig Tatum c
Homer Bailey p

Seriously if a pitcher sees this lineup and thinks that this lineup will likely get him enough runs to make up for him making a mistake he is delusional. Bailey will have a hard time not trying to nibble and be aggressive.

nate
07-27-2009, 04:38 PM
I am failing to see the difference in what we are saying.

While I agree with you from a tactical standpoint, I think there are also non-game related repercussions that may make it a little less sensible.

Yes, I understand that. No, that's not the "less sensible" part. The "less sensible" part is the weight given to the "save" statistic. Yes, I understand the reality of the situation. No, I don't like it.

mth123
07-27-2009, 05:42 PM
I hate the current regime, but I don't really think this is an issue. My only complaints are bringing Harang back on short rest after his relief outing (the relief outing itself was fine IMO) and allowing Harang to come back after the rain delay. The first one is on Dick Pole IMO. The second is on Harang himself.

I haven't seen a big problem with Dusty in this area.

Big Klu
07-28-2009, 03:21 AM
My only complaints are bringing Harang back on short rest after his relief outing (the relief outing itself was fine IMO) and allowing Harang to come back after the rain delay. The first one is on Dick Pole IMO. The second is on Harang himself.

I haven't seen a big problem with Dusty in this area.

I agree with you on both counts. Furthermore, I think that Dusty's use of Owings in relief in this year's marathon extra-inning game in San Diego was entirely reasonable, and I would submit that perhaps Dusty learned something from last year's game.