PDA

View Full Version : Grab your barf bag



Cyclone792
07-27-2009, 03:04 PM
Just looking at some 2009 offensive (read: offensive as in loathsome) numbers here ...

Reds team: .247/.316/.389/.705 in 3,704 plate appearances

Reds on the road: .233/.296/.369/.665 in 1,801 plate appearances

Reds (as a team) sans Joey Votto: .238/.307/.371/.678 in 3,341 plate appearances

Reds Outfielders: .235/.297/.379/.676 in 1,270 plate appearances

Votto/Phillips/Hanigan/Gomes: .304/.381/.499/.880 in 981 plate appearances (just think that two of the four players in that group are the backup catcher and a right-handed platoon outfielder).

Everyone else: .226/.292/.350/.642 in 2,723 plate appearances (that's 73.5 percent of all the team's PAs)

Willy T/Gonzalez/Rosales/Janish/McDonald: .225/.279/.292/.571 in 865 plate appearances (that's 23.4 percent of all the team's PAs)

The 2009 offense has thus far performed about as well as the 2003-05 Reds pitching staff. In other words, historically awful. I really love the fact that nearly three-fourths of the entire team has an on-base percentage of only .292. If anything screams perennial contender, that's it right there.

Anyhow, as a result, we once again open up our arms and gracefully welcome back The Lost Decade.

Homer Bailey
07-27-2009, 03:08 PM
:barf:

BRM
07-27-2009, 03:11 PM
Just sad.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2009, 03:12 PM
C'mon Cyclone, I just ate...

Did you have to post that?

Now I need some Pepto...

redsfan4445
07-27-2009, 03:12 PM
You should mail these statistics to Walt and BOB and see if they have the guts to reply or make excuses for their poor team building..

Ltlabner
07-27-2009, 03:13 PM
All we need is a hoss pitching staff and we'll complete like the dickens....

Er....opps....nevermind.

wolfboy
07-27-2009, 03:14 PM
Just looking at some 2009 offensive (read: offensive as in loathsome) numbers here ...

Reds team: .247/.316/.389/.705 in 3,704 plate appearances

Reds on the road: .233/.296/.369/.665 in 1,801 plate appearances

Reds (as a team) sans Joey Votto: .238/.307/.371/.678 in 3,341 plate appearances

Reds Outfielders: .235/.297/.379/.676 in 1,270 plate appearances

Votto/Phillips/Hanigan/Gomes: .304/.381/.499/.880 in 981 plate appearances (just think that two of the four players in that group are the backup catcher and a right-handed platoon outfielder).

Everyone else: .226/.292/.350/.642 in 2,723 plate appearances (that's 73.5 percent of all the team's PAs)

Willy T/Gonzalez/Rosales/Janish/McDonald: .225/.279/.292/.571 in 865 plate appearances (that's 23.4 percent of all the team's PAs)

The 2009 offense has thus far performed about as well as the 2003-05 Reds pitching staff. In other words, historically awful. I really love the fact that nearly three-fourths of the entire team has an on-base percentage of only .292. If anything screams perennial contender, that's it right there.

Anyhow, as a result, we once again open up our arms and gracefully welcome back The Lost Decade.

Cyclone, thanks for the info. To me, the most telling data for this team's failure over the last few years has been the number of PA that have been absolutely wasted. This was the case last year, and it's still the case this year. As Cyclone points out, 23.4 percent of the PA have been wasted on players that can't even give you Juan Castro production (.231/.271/.334/.605 for his career).

Falls City Beer
07-27-2009, 03:16 PM
All we need is a hoss pitching staff and we'll complete like the dickens....

Er....opps....nevermind.

The Giants are doing it--with the same weenie offense as the Reds.

But I'll say this: no one in the bottom half of team ERA in the NL is really even close to contention.

This is no longer the MLB of teams with 900 + runs scored.

nate
07-27-2009, 03:17 PM
I've been watching the Reds all year.

Therefore, I have a barf bucket.

RANDY IN INDY
07-27-2009, 03:19 PM
The Giants are doing it--with the same weenie offense as the Reds.

But I'll say this: no one in the bottom half of team ERA in the NL is really even close to contention.

If you are going to go the "weenie offense" route, that is a good park to try it in.

cincyinco
07-27-2009, 03:19 PM
Is there still anyone who thinks the offense is NOT the problem or will come around?

Pretty easy, for me at least, to see why this team cannot win.

Walt had a horrible, horrible offseason, and did next to nothing to fix what most saw as a glaring issue going into the season.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2009, 03:19 PM
If you are going to go the "weenie offense" route, that is a good park to try it in.

I'll take the 3.60 team ERA route if you don't mind.

Ltlabner
07-27-2009, 03:20 PM
The Giants are doing it--with the same weenie offense as the Reds.

The same Giants team that is currently 10 games out?

They are 2 games out in the wild card so I guess if you want to build a team that "competes" for the wild card every year that would be groovy.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2009, 03:21 PM
They are 2 games out in the wild card so I guess if you want to build a team that "competes" for the wild card every year that would be groovy.

Yeah. What's good about offense is that you can always get it at the deadline. Always.

RANDY IN INDY
07-27-2009, 03:23 PM
I'll take the 3.60 team ERA route if you don't mind.

Definitely helps a weenie offense. Wonder if they would post the same ERA in GAB?

Falls City Beer
07-27-2009, 03:25 PM
Definitely helps a weenie offense. Wonder if they would post the same ERA in GAB?

Does it matter? It's all relative--I imagine their offense would perform better in GAB too.

RANDY IN INDY
07-27-2009, 03:26 PM
Just asking. I think it might. The Reds offense would have trouble performing in Williamsport.

LoganBuck
07-27-2009, 03:31 PM
So could Juan Pierre help?


http://web.tiscali.it/fabioracco2/images/Whois16.gif

Ha Ha!

wolfboy
07-27-2009, 03:39 PM
Juan Pierre is the difference between FAIL and EPIC FAIL. In that regard, I guess he could help.

Ltlabner
07-27-2009, 03:40 PM
Beyond the bickering, Cyclone's post points out the critical need to:

1) Not waste AB's on guys that not only don't help your team win, but actively hurt your chances of doing so.

2) Have guys who get on-base regularly and don't give up a bunch of outs once they get there. No, in fact, speed can not offset a lack of OBP skills.

Sadly, the Reds have not learned either of these two lessons.

AtomicDumpling
07-27-2009, 03:42 PM
Just looking at some 2009 offensive (read: offensive as in loathsome) numbers here ...

Reds team: .247/.316/.389/.705 in 3,704 plate appearances

Reds on the road: .233/.296/.369/.665 in 1,801 plate appearances

Reds (as a team) sans Joey Votto: .238/.307/.371/.678 in 3,341 plate appearances

Reds Outfielders: .235/.297/.379/.676 in 1,270 plate appearances

Votto/Phillips/Hanigan/Gomes: .304/.381/.499/.880 in 981 plate appearances (just think that two of the four players in that group are the backup catcher and a right-handed platoon outfielder).

Everyone else: .226/.292/.350/.642 in 2,723 plate appearances (that's 73.5 percent of all the team's PAs)

Willy T/Gonzalez/Rosales/Janish/McDonald: .225/.279/.292/.571 in 865 plate appearances (that's 23.4 percent of all the team's PAs)

The 2009 offense has thus far performed about as well as the 2003-05 Reds pitching staff. In other words, historically awful. I really love the fact that nearly three-fourths of the entire team has an on-base percentage of only .292. If anything screams perennial contender, that's it right there.

Anyhow, as a result, we once again open up our arms and gracefully welcome back The Lost Decade.

But we can make up for it with speed and defense! :eek:

Ravenlord
07-27-2009, 03:53 PM
But we can make up for it with speed and defense! :eek:

that would be why the Giants are competing, bloody good defenders which helps their bloody good pitchers.

*BaseClogger*
07-28-2009, 02:45 AM
Cincinnati Reds

83 OPS+
100 ERA+

San Francisco Giants

80 OPS+
119 ERA+

Yeah, their pitching is really good. But imagine how good they would be if they had better hitters than Travis Ishikawa?

WMR
07-28-2009, 02:50 AM
Jeez Cyclone, awesome work but very depressing. haha. Awesome thread title. :D

Seriously, I would love to see Reds brass have these stats shoved in their face, maybe it would wake somebody up. Those stats factoring out Votto's production are especially horrific. Votto somewhat distorts the overall epic fail level of this offense looked at as a sum of their parts.

redsfandan
07-28-2009, 07:24 AM
The Reds are also 26th in team obp, slg, and runs scored. Now THAT'S consistency!!! :(

M2
07-28-2009, 09:20 AM
You know the last time the Reds had a team with a 83 OPS+ and 100 ERA+?

1982

Actually the offense was 84 on the OPS+, but that's the only difference.

gonelong
07-28-2009, 09:32 AM
You know the last time the Reds had a team with a 83 OPS+ and 100 ERA+?

1982

Actually the offense was 84 on the OPS+, but that's the only difference.

Yeeee ouch. How long before we're ... Gettin' back to fun again?

GL

wolfboy
07-28-2009, 09:35 AM
You know the last time the Reds had a team with a 83 OPS+ and 100 ERA+?

1982

Actually the offense was 84 on the OPS+, but that's the only difference.

I didn't think it was possible but you just bumped the severe bummer effect of this thread up a few notches.

nate
07-28-2009, 11:39 AM
You know the last time the Reds had a team with a 83 OPS+ and 100 ERA+?

1982

Actually the offense was 84 on the OPS+, but that's the only difference.

All we're missing is the double-knits and turf!

osuceltic
07-28-2009, 11:50 AM
This team was counting heavily on Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion and got burned badly. When two of your four most important offensive players tank that badly, you're going to struggle.

Willy's massive slump, the disaster that has been shortstop and left field, and the EE replacements at third make it worse, but the key, in my opinion, has been the failure of Bruce and Encarnacion. We knew the rest of it would be a problem.

My guess is this is the last time this organization gets kneecapped by EE. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times ...

Bruce is another matter. They're going to cross their fingers and hope he turns it around next season, but the scary thing is he showed no signs of improvement. It would be nice if we could point to something and say he was starting to "get it" but we really can't. If he comes out next season and produces the same numbers, this team is going to struggle again.

Marc D
07-28-2009, 11:58 AM
This team was counting heavily on Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion and got burned badly. When two of your four most important offensive players tank that badly, you're going to struggle.


That and the guy who is second on the team in TPA sporting a .246/.285/.297 line. :eek:

Slightly off topic but has anyone ever seen all .200's in a triple slash line? I had to look at it a couple of times because my brain wasn't processing numbers that low in those categories. A sub .300 SLG, thats amazing.

Nasty_Boy
07-28-2009, 12:00 PM
But this is the team that Dusty always wanted!

Also, how funny is it that Bob said he isn't ready to sell... Because he thinks the hitting and pitching can come together at the same time! lol!

pahster
07-28-2009, 12:13 PM
This team was counting heavily on Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion and got burned badly. When two of your four most important offensive players tank that badly, you're going to struggle.

Willy's massive slump, the disaster that has been shortstop and left field, and the EE replacements at third make it worse, but the key, in my opinion, has been the failure of Bruce and Encarnacion. We knew the rest of it would be a problem.


Encarnacion was very bad for 19 games, but he was likely playing through a minor injury that turned into a major one. He's been as good with the bat since coming back as he was bad before. His defense has been atrocious, but that's nothing new and isn't appreciably different from what the fill ins were providing.

Bruce is 22. I give him a pass.

I don't think Taveras is slumping; I think he's done.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 12:16 PM
Willy's massive slump ...

You mean the one that's been going on for two years and 902 plate appearances now? I can't wait for the Reds to pay him $4 million next season to keep slumping.


Slightly off topic but has anyone ever seen all .200's in a triple slash line? I had to look at it a couple of times because my brain wasn't processing numbers that low in those categories. A sub .300 SLG, thats amazing.

Since I looked it up due to celtic's post, I figured I'd post it.

Willy T's triple slash line since the beginning of 2008: .249/.299/.297/.596 in 902 plate appearances.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 12:19 PM
You know the last time the Reds had a team with a 83 OPS+ and 100 ERA+?

1982

Actually the offense was 84 on the OPS+, but that's the only difference.

To go a bit further, really the only key difference between 1982 and 2009 is the Reds underperformed pythag in 1982 whereas now they're overperforming pythag in 2009.

I'm floored that this team is only eight games under .500 at the end of July, because it's probably the worst Reds team I've seen since 2003 or 2004. Nevertheless, if the sell off happens, the record will absolutely tank these final two months and they'll be right where they belong in the standings.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2009, 12:29 PM
To go a bit further, really the only key difference between 1982 and 2009 is the Reds underperformed pythag in 1982 whereas now they're overperforming pythag in 2009.

I'm floored that this team is only eight games under .500 at the end of July, because it's probably the worst Reds team I've seen since 2003 or 2004. Nevertheless, if the sell off happens, the record will absolutely tank these final two months and they'll be right where they belong in the standings.

This team isn't the worst since 2003; this squad has a pen and some defense. Yeah, it's not a good team, but it's hardly 2003.

Offense is down all over baseball and parity's up--razor-thin margins separate a lot of teams. Really, this offense is only slightly worse than the first place Cubs'. The difference? The Cubs can pitch.

membengal
07-28-2009, 12:35 PM
1982.

The memory of that campaign is forever seared on soul. I was 12.

M2
07-28-2009, 12:43 PM
Offense is down all over baseball and parity's up--razor-thin margins separate a lot of teams.

Parity isn't up for the Reds, 4th worst run differential in all of baseball and dropping fast.

This club isn't a tweak away.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2009, 12:47 PM
Parity isn't up for the Reds, 4th worst run differential in all of baseball and dropping fast.

This club isn't a tweak away.

No it's not a tweak away, but it's not 1982 or even 2003. Believe me, I know it's not a tweak away; I knew it in November when folks were claiming we're an Abreu away.

Uh uh.

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 01:11 PM
To go a bit further, really the only key difference between 1982 and 2009 is the Reds underperformed pythag in 1982 whereas now they're overperforming pythag in 2009.

I'm floored that this team is only eight games under .500 at the end of July, because it's probably the worst Reds team I've seen since 2003 or 2004. Nevertheless, if the sell off happens, the record will absolutely tank these final two months and they'll be right where they belong in the standings.

Huge difference between the 1982 team and this team, really inaccurate and very unfair comparison.

First, the 1982 team had no significant injuries. It really wouldn't have mattered because most of the team were replacement level players anyway, but that only points out how horrible the 1982 team was.
This 2009 team has many very good, well above league average players, but they have been hurt for large parts of the season. Imagine how horrible the 82 Reds would have been if they lost Soto for most of the season, and Driessen for most of two months. There are no comps for losing EE, or Bruce, because they didn't have players that good to lose.

Second, the 2009 team's bullpen blows away the 1982 pen. Here are the top five ERA+ for this year's pen: 242, 213, 174, 150, 141.
Here are the top five ERA+ for the 82 pen: 130, 129, 118, 102, 72.
The best reliever in 82 was not as good as the 5th best reliever in 2009.
This might be the reason why this 2009 team outperforms it's Pythag and the 82 team underperforms it. The Pythag is in the infant stage in terms of stats, so there is more that we don't know about it than we do, but it seems suggest that teams with very strong pens, outperform it.

Third, the 1982 team had no future. Half the starting lineup was over 30 and the "youngsters", Alex Trevino, Paul Householder, and Eddie Milner, were not exactly top prospects. Ron Oester was the only offensive player on that team that had any future, and that was mostly because of his defense.
This 2009 Reds team has Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Hanigan, all guys with a lot of talent and very bright futures.

In 1982, I felt like the Reds were a little league team, and that it would be many years before they were any good. This year, I feel like they are a very young, talented team, that could contend if healthy, and who will contend for years to come.

M2
07-28-2009, 01:16 PM
No it's not a tweak away, but it's not 1982 or even 2003. Believe me, I know it's not a tweak away; I knew it in November when folks were claiming we're an Abreu away.

Uh uh.

I don't think anyone presented Abreu as a panacea. Yet more like him was certainly in order. Seemed to me a large chunk of folks knew the Reds needed to make another pile of moves, including some pitching improvements, to turn the corner.

And this offense is atrocious anyway you want to slice it. 5 of 8 positions in the field need turnover. Cyclone posted just how pathetic this club is outside of the scoring paradise known as the GAB.

Could the Reds win with superior pitching and mediocre or even somewhat poor offense? Sure, but good luck keeping stable superior pitching intact on any payroll the Reds can afford. That would require the Reds to bat close to 1.000 on first round pitcher selections.

The reality is the Reds have lost the plot at the plate. There's plenty to dislike about the pitching as well, but it in no way diminishes the putridity of the offense.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2009, 01:19 PM
I don't think anyone presented Abreu as a panacea. Yet more like him was certainly in order. Seemed to me a large chunk of folks knew the Reds needed to make another pile of moves, including some pitching improvements, to turn the corner.

And this offense is atrocious anyway you want to slice it. 5 of 8 positions in the field need turnover. Cyclone posted just how pathetic this club is outside of the scoring paradise known as the GAB.

Could the Reds win with superior pitching and mediocre or even somewhat poor offense? Sure, but good luck keeping stable superior pitching intact on any payroll the Reds can afford. That would require the Reds to bat close to 1.000 on first round pitcher selections.

The reality is the Reds have lost the plot at the plate. There's plenty to dislike about the pitching as well, but it in no way diminishes the putridity of the offense.

Offenses can get turned around in an offseason. Pitching this bad will take years. Even with the best of GMs.

I'm afraid this FO doesn't realize the depth of awful of this team's pitching. I think they know the offense is bad. That's my concern.

M2
07-28-2009, 01:38 PM
Offenses can get turned around in an offseason. Pitching this bad will take years. Even with the best of GMs.

I'm afraid this FO doesn't realize the depth of awful of this team's pitching. I think they know the offense is bad. That's my concern.

Jocketty pretty much turned the Cardinals pitching on a dime prior to 2004, though I agree it's a high-wire act to do it. The degree of difficulty only rises when you've got a completely dysfunctional offense to tackle as well.

They may know the offense is bad, but they don't seem to have the slightest clue as to how they're going to fix it. And it's close to impossible to fix this offense while retaining some defense without constructing a plan that involves Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier being ready to deliver in 2010 (in other words, they'll require little to no transition time from the upper minors to the majors).

The problem with the starting pitching is they were hoping to draw five cards to a royal flush. The key with the pitching is whether Volquez will bounce back after losing most of this season to injury. If he can't, then I'd agree the situation is dire. If he can, then Jocketty's still got hard work in front of him, but decent pitching is certainly an achievable goal.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 02:03 PM
Huge difference between the 1982 team and this team, really inaccurate and very unfair comparison.

I'm going off strictly run production and run prevention. Injuries? They happen, and they're a part of the game that teams have to deal with.

And frankly, while the 2009 team does have some potentially nice impact players, it also has some massive glaring holes that have question marks for their future. That's been the problem with this team for the past few seasons: they've had weaknesses so incredibly weak that a handful of players have single-handedly destroyed any hope of contending whatsoever (Patterson, Bako and Fogg, I was looking at you last year. Willy T and Gonzalez, I'm looking at you now).

It doesn't matter how much potential a team has; if a team has multiple awful players receiving significant playing time, they'll just drag the entire team down to their level and destroy it from the inside out.

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 02:12 PM
I'm going off strictly run production and run prevention. Injuries? They happen, and they're a part of the game that teams have to deal with.

And frankly, while the 2009 team does have some potentially nice impact players, it also has some massive glaring holes that have question marks for their future. That's been the problem with this team for the past few seasons: they've had weaknesses so incredibly weak that a handful of players have single-handedly destroyed any hope of contending whatsoever (Patterson, Bako and Fogg, I was looking at you last year. Willy T and Gonzalez, I'm looking at you now).

It doesn't matter how much potential a team has; if a team has multiple awful players receiving significant playing time, they'll just drag the entire team down to their level and destroy it from the inside out.

I agree with you on the second part. This team has some glaring holes that need to be addressed. But unlike the 1982 team, which offensively was one big gigantic hole, this team has some players with a future.

As for injuries, they happen, but when comparing teams, they have to be taken into account. If you don't, then you have to admit that the 2008 Mets are around 10 games better than this years team.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 02:33 PM
I agree with you on the second part. This team has some glaring holes that need to be addressed. But unlike the 1982 team, which offensively was one big gigantic hole, this team has some players with a future.

And I just touched on this in a separate thread, but it's high time that the Reds start addressing those holes in a manner that a 90+ win team would address them. This entire decade has been chock full of the Reds addressing those needs just as a 75-win team would address them. And not surprisingly, that's all the Reds have been for the decade.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 02:35 PM
And I just touched on this in a separate thread, but it's high time that the Reds start addressing those holes in a manner that a 90+ win team would address them. This entire decade has been chock full of the Reds addressing those needs just as a 75-win team would address them. And not surprisingly, that's all the Reds have been for the decade.

How is that? Signing the top FAs to $150MM contracts?

nate
07-28-2009, 02:44 PM
How is that? Signing the top FAs to $150MM contracts?

This is a really lame response.

I'm pretty sure Cyclone, (et al.) has repeatedly offered many ways, in great detail, to improve the Reds without breaking the bank.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 02:54 PM
This is a really lame response.

I'm pretty sure Cyclone, (et al.) has repeatedly offered many ways, in great detail, to improve the Reds without breaking the bank.

He may have, but when you talk about the teams who are consistently in the upper echelon of the league, they aren't typically working on limited payrolls. They are obtaining guys like Teixeira, Sabathia, Manny, Beckett, Vlad, Cabrera, Ibanez, Soriano, Beltran, etc, which ususally takes a lot of cash.

The 90 win teams are playing with a different set of rules. Wanting Cincy to run their team like the consistent 90 game winners in baseball is pretty unfair.

Now can they do something different than they have been doing? Obviously that is preferable. But I'd like to know what the 90 win teams are doing that Cincy can be doing that doesn't involve insane amounts of money. They might be doing some minor things that can be replicated, but when these guys are backing up the dump trucks full of cash, there is only so much the rest of the league can do.

M2
07-28-2009, 02:56 PM
How is that? Signing the top FAs to $150MM contracts?

No, by addressing the entire set of problems in front of you instead of the easiest 25%.

We've been over this ad nauseum over the years, the Reds have consistently pursued a 'tweener strategy in which they neither commit to a proper rebuild nor a team ready to contend. The team's calculus has always been focused on what the minimal amount is that must be done in order to claim "competitive" status.

If the club were well-run then lack of money would be an issue, but it isn't well-run.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 02:58 PM
We've been over this ad nauseum over the years, the Reds have consistently pursued a 'tweener strategy in which they neither commit to a proper rebuild nor a team ready to contend. The team's calculus has always been focused on what the minimal amount is that must be done in order to claim "competitive" status.

I've been saying this same thing for years. But I'm not sure if that's where he was going with his post. He said that the Reds should be addressing their gaps like the 90 win teams do. The consistent 90 game winners do not have fire sales all that often and rebuild.

WMR
07-28-2009, 02:59 PM
No, by addressing the entire set of problems in front of you instead of the easiest 25%.

We've been over this ad nauseum over the years, the Reds have consistently pursued a 'tweener strategy in which they neither commit to a proper rebuild nor a team ready to contend. The team's calculus has always been focused on what the minimal amount is that must be done in order to claim "competitive" status.

If the club were well-run then lack of money would be an issue, but it isn't well-run.

Great point, m2! The lack of money argument in light of the Reds organizational issues is akin to being worried about your tire pressure when your car doesn't have an engine.

wolfboy
07-28-2009, 03:28 PM
I think the 'tweener approach has been embraced over the years because they're afraid that attendance will bottom out if they don't. Granted, it hasn't really been anything to write home about, but they're still outperforming ten other MLB teams this year. The difference between the Reds and the Pirates is an average of 6k fans a game.

I'm sure the difference in their minds is the 'tweener approach. They do enough to keep 25k/game hopeful. I don't think that's a good approach, but I sincerely believe that it's driven a lot of the thinking over the years. In the past, it brought us Larkin's extension, the Griffey trade and a host of silly contracts every year. All of it is done in the name of being competitive, but does little to guide the team to success. In many cases, it does the exact opposite. Yet, year after year, it seems to be just enough to separate the Reds from the Pirates in attendance, if not in the standings. You may not believe it's effective, but look at all the people on this board that thought this team was a player away.

TRF
07-28-2009, 03:45 PM
Wanna know my fear? The Reds do nothing at the deadline. Absolutely nothing.

So next year's rotation is Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey.

And maybe that's good enough. Probably not, but maybe. The pen however will see the departure of Rhodes and Weathers. Maybe a vet reliever is signed. Maybe said vet reliever goes all Rhodes on the league, or maybe he goes all Stanton. relievers are a crap shoot.

But not trading one/some of Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes, Arroyo, Harang likely means another year of Taveras, JHJ, the LF platoon, and a weak bench because the bench players are starting.

OR

LF is Frazier before he is ready
CF is Stubbs/Heisey before either is ready
SS is Cozart before he is ready

And suddenly it's 1983.

Stormy
07-28-2009, 03:49 PM
Great posts throughout the thread, Cyclone. Everyone, aside from our F.O. brain trust and FCB, knew it was going to be brutal to watch this offense perform in 2009. However, these guys have eclipsed the worst of expectations, and injuries have had precious little to do with it (demonstrated by the lack of production even at those times when the whole cast was active).

M2
07-28-2009, 03:49 PM
I've been saying this same thing for years. But I'm not sure if that's where he was going with his post. He said that the Reds should be addressing their gaps like the 90 win teams do. The consistent 90 game winners do not have fire sales all that often and rebuild.

Ideally you only want to do it once a decade.

Large market teams can constantly reload, but what were the acquisition costs for the starting lineup in Philly? You've got one substantial free agent buy (Ibanez) and one first-round pick (Utley). Otherwise it was discount player acquisition. Obviously it's expensive to keep that team together, but the Phillies haven't been throwing around huge sums of money to bring in talent.

Really, the main thing the Reds need to do is address their gaps fully instead of partially. Winning teams do. Losing teams don't.

osuceltic
07-28-2009, 04:08 PM
Encarnacion was very bad for 19 games, but he was likely playing through a minor injury that turned into a major one. He's been as good with the bat since coming back as he was bad before. His defense has been atrocious, but that's nothing new and isn't appreciably different from what the fill ins were providing.

Bruce is 22. I give him a pass.

I've been reading excuses for Encarnacion for three years. Whatever. They have counted on him as a RH bat for three years running, and he has burned them each time.

And I don't care how old Bruce is. You don't get extra credit for doing it at a young age. If the team is counting on him to be a middle-of-the-order hitter, he needs to produce. This is the big leagues. If you're not ready, get ready in Louisville.


You mean the one that's been going on for two years and 902 plate appearances now? I can't wait for the Reds to pay him $4 million next season to keep slumping.
Taveras actually had a pretty good start to the season and hasn't been terrible for the past month. But in between was a monstrous slump. I know it's against RedsZone Law to say anything about Willy that isn't hate-spewing venom, but he has given the team some good stretches. Does it make up for the massive slump? No.

BRM
07-28-2009, 04:11 PM
Taveras actually had a pretty good start to the season and hasn't been terrible for the past month. But in between was a monstrous slump. I know it's against RedsZone Law to say anything about Willy that isn't hate-spewing venom, but he has given the team some good stretches. Does it make up for the massive slump? No.

Willy's last 28 days: .273/.297/.295

I'd say he's been terrible the past month.

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 04:37 PM
And I just touched on this in a separate thread, but it's high time that the Reds start addressing those holes in a manner that a 90+ win team would address them. This entire decade has been chock full of the Reds addressing those needs just as a 75-win team would address them. And not surprisingly, that's all the Reds have been for the decade.

I completely agree.

I have already expressed how I think the Reds should move forward, but will sum it up here again for those who missed the previous threads.

Instead of using resources to fill in holes, use them to build depth in the organization at first the minor league level, and then the major league level.

I think that Jocketty has implemented this plan and sticking to it. That is why so many are complaining about the make up of this year's 25 man roster.

He is 16 months into strengthening the depth of the organization, and already there is a huge improvement over the last few years. A large part of that has simply to not panic, and not sign anyone to big contracts, and not trade anyone who he thinks can contribute in the future. He really hasn't added much, but unlike his predecessors, he hasn't subtracted anything of value and has maintained payroll flex.

It's a start, but much more needs to be done.

M2
07-28-2009, 04:52 PM
and has maintained payroll flex.

It's not there to be maintained.

You may not be aware of this, but PayFlex is a dirty word around here.

pahster
07-28-2009, 04:56 PM
It's not there to be maintained.

You may not be aware of this, but PayFlex is a dirty word around here.

Someday I hope the Reds do something useful with it. I wonder if I'll still be paying attention to them by then.

TRF
07-28-2009, 04:56 PM
I completely agree.

I have already expressed how I think the Reds should move forward, but will sum it up here again for those who missed the previous threads.

Instead of using resources to fill in holes, use them to build depth in the organization at first the minor league level, and then the major league level.

I think that Jocketty has implemented this plan and sticking to it. That is why so many are complaining about the make up of this year's 25 man roster.

He is 16 months into strengthening the depth of the organization, and already there is a huge improvement over the last few years. A large part of that has simply to not panic, and not sign anyone to big contracts, and not trade anyone who he thinks can contribute in the future. He really hasn't added much, but unlike his predecessors, he hasn't subtracted anything of value and has maintained payroll flex.

It's a start, but much more needs to be done.

he hasn't done thing one to strengthen the depth of this organization. He acquired Houston's version of Jeff Keppinger, a ML pitcher with tremendous upside except that he can't seem to stay on a roster (Buck), Massett and Owings.

That's not depth. that's normal GM transactioning. He saddled the team with the worst leadoff hitter in the past decade. He neglected areas of need SS, LF and CF. He hasn't properly managed the 25 man roster forcing the team to play short handed for weeks at a time.

Frankly, I think he's been a pretty bad GM for the Reds thus far.

*BaseClogger*
07-28-2009, 05:01 PM
I've been reading excuses for Encarnacion for three years. Whatever. They have counted on him as a RH bat for three years running, and he has burned them each time.

HE SUCKS AT DEFENSE

But what exactly were the Reds expecting? Mike Schmidt? No wonder they were dissapointed...

wolfboy
07-28-2009, 05:15 PM
he hasn't done thing one to strengthen the depth of this organization. He acquired Houston's version of Jeff Keppinger, a ML pitcher with tremendous upside except that he can't seem to stay on a roster (Buck), Massett and Owings.

That's not depth. that's normal GM transactioning. He saddled the team with the worst leadoff hitter in the past decade. He neglected areas of need SS, LF and CF. He hasn't properly managed the 25 man roster forcing the team to play short handed for weeks at a time.

Frankly, I think he's been a pretty bad GM for the Reds thus far.

I think there's a good argument that they've built depth at the minor league level. There is no doubt at all that they've put a lot of money into international scouting and signing.

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 05:26 PM
he hasn't done thing one to strengthen the depth of this organization. He acquired Houston's version of Jeff Keppinger, a ML pitcher with tremendous upside except that he can't seem to stay on a roster (Buck), Massett and Owings.

That's not depth. that's normal GM transactioning. He saddled the team with the worst leadoff hitter in the past decade. He neglected areas of need SS, LF and CF. He hasn't properly managed the 25 man roster forcing the team to play short handed for weeks at a time.

Frankly, I think he's been a pretty bad GM for the Reds thus far.

Like I said, very little has been done in terms of depth on the 25 man roster. What has been done is that he has not weakened the Reds depth by trying to go for it each year by filling holes (and thus creating others) on the 25 man roster.

We have all seen what that philosophy results in, especially when there is no depth to the minor league organization.

What Jocketty has accomplished is keeping what the Reds have (a first, this decade), while starting to build the minor league system, so that when the Reds are contending, he can fill the holes without creating other holes. The Reds definitely have more depth in the minors now than they have had since the late 80's. Most of that was O'Brien and Krivisky, but Walt has been smart enough to keep it so far.

Yeah, it sucks right now, but I trust it will pay dividends in the future.

Marc D
07-28-2009, 07:23 PM
Taveras actually had a pretty good start to the season and hasn't been terrible for the past month. But in between was a monstrous slump. I know it's against RedsZone Law to say anything about Willy that isn't hate-spewing venom, but he has given the team some good stretches. Does it make up for the massive slump? No.

Mar/Apr 65 AB's .262/.351/.338
May 108 AB's .269/.307/.333
June 72 AB's .167/.167/.208
July 88 AB's .273/.297/.295

Thats 65 NL CF average AB's and 268 that were below average to be as kind as possible about it. I agree with the first 2 points you made but there is just no way to defend WT, the WT signing or the use of WT by Dusty.

In one fell swoop WJ destroyed the faith I had in him based on his track record in St Louis. It was easy to see coming and they missed it by a mile.

Ltlabner
07-28-2009, 07:48 PM
Taveras actually had a pretty good start to the season and hasn't been terrible for the past month. But in between was a monstrous slump.

Except that the "pretty good start" was actually decidedly mediocre.

His past month has been more towards "totally futile" as opposed to terrible.

But on the monstrous slump part I completely agree with you.

nate
07-28-2009, 07:54 PM
Just think what Willy T's numbers would had to have been if we were in the midst of his "good streak" right now.

GAC
07-28-2009, 09:37 PM
Yeah. What's good about offense is that you can always get it at the deadline. Always.

Then isn't that an indictment of Walt then?

Stormy
07-28-2009, 10:38 PM
Then isn't that an indictment of Walt then?

First, if it's so readily available, then why would anyone wait until the deadline in the first place? Nothing like a hypothetical wild card contender with a razor thin margin of error, deciding to handicap themselves the first 100 games before deciding to score some runs. Secondly, of course it is a major indictment of Walt Jocketty, and his atrocious roster designing skills to date.

We weren't a good offensive team last year, yet he divested us of offensive production and opted not to replace any of it. He passed on adding firepower last deadline; he passed on adding any firepower this offseason; and he's getting perilously close to letting another deadline come and go without addressing the most glaring deficiency on the ball club.

Signing Taveras and Hairston, knowing that Dusty will use them as his default #1/#2!! Walt's responsible for designing the lowest top of the order OBP tandem in the sport of baseball. That's an impressive feat.

membengal
07-29-2009, 11:41 AM
First, if it's so readily available, then why would anyone wait until the deadline in the first place? Nothing like a hypothetical wild card contender with a razor thin margin of error, deciding to handicap themselves the first 100 games before deciding to score some runs. Secondly, of course it is a major indictment of Walt Jocketty, and his atrocious roster designing skills to date.

We weren't a good offensive team last year, yet he divested us of offensive production and opted not to replace any of it. He passed on adding firepower last deadline; he passed on adding any firepower this offseason; and he's getting perilously close to letting another deadline come and go without addressing the most glaring deficiency on the ball club.

Signing Taveras and Hairston, knowing that Dusty will use them as his default #1/#2!! Walt's responsible for designing the lowest top of the order OBP tandem in the sport of baseball. That's an impressive feat.

Bumped for truth.

Cyclone792
07-29-2009, 11:47 AM
Signing Taveras and Hairston, knowing that Dusty will use them as his default #1/#2!! Walt's responsible for designing the lowest top of the order OBP tandem in the sport of baseball. That's an impressive feat.

The combined .290 on-base percentage out of the leadoff and two-hole hitters from the 2009 Reds just makes me all warm and fuzzy inside!

GAC
07-29-2009, 07:14 PM
First, if it's so readily available, then why would anyone wait until the deadline in the first place? Nothing like a hypothetical wild card contender with a razor thin margin of error, deciding to handicap themselves the first 100 games before deciding to score some runs. Secondly, of course it is a major indictment of Walt Jocketty, and his atrocious roster designing skills to date.

We weren't a good offensive team last year, yet he divested us of offensive production and opted not to replace any of it. He passed on adding firepower last deadline; he passed on adding any firepower this offseason; and he's getting perilously close to letting another deadline come and go without addressing the most glaring deficiency on the ball club.

Signing Taveras and Hairston, knowing that Dusty will use them as his default #1/#2!! Walt's responsible for designing the lowest top of the order OBP tandem in the sport of baseball. That's an impressive feat.

I couldn't have said it any better myself Stormy. :thumbup:

And in the past I stated exactly what you just did when you say "We weren't a good offensive team last year, yet he divested us of offensive production and opted not to replace any of it"

That's right! HE OPTED not to replace any of it. He took a below average offense AND MADE IT WORSE.

But IMO, I think he (and Dusty) knew this. Jocketty's warped logic was that he could somehow offset that offensive loss with improved pitching and defense, at the expense of the former.... and of course lets not omit the most important quotient in that equation (in Dusty's mind) of SPEED. But other then shoring up the BP with a couple acquisitions, and adding #5 Owings, he went into this season with a "flying by the seat of his pants" logic that the starting rotation would somehow improve with Harang returning to form, Cueto getting better (logical there), that Volquez and Arroyo would repeat their '08 performances, rounded out by Owings at #5.

Regardless of the fact that we have two promising youngsters in Volquez and Cueto, they still went into this season with huge "IFs" in this pitching. Certainly not improved enough, IMO, to justify what they've constructed and put out onto that field nightly. It was a recipe for disaster IMO.

My Gawd! You're need to field an all-star rotation and GG inf/of to back up this offense.

Our team ERA this year is .15 better then last.

Yeah - one may be able to go out at the deadline and get offense. But offense also COST. Defense? Not so much. The league is littered with players who possess the glove, but offensively are sorely lacking. A dime a dozen.

And that is what this current FO decided to TRY and do. But they didn't even really do that! WT is no defensive specialist out there. Nix is a statue. Gomes and CDick? No Dunn or aging Griffey for sure. But no GGers either.

And at SS they decided to roll the dice on a guy who hadn't played ball in a year due to injury, and who came into the season with questionable health. But they resigned "multi-talented" JHJ to shore that problem up. And they let a guy like Keppinger, who was cheap as dirt, just walk, when they could have retained this guy on the bench, so that when they do encounter any injuries you're not calling up guys like Castillo and Rosales for filler. I guess that .355 OB% and lack of speed on Kepp's part put a bad taste in Baker's mouth.

No - this is Bob, Walt and Dusty's team. They had a golden opportunity in the off-season.... remember that promise to add payroll?....to make additions that could have made this division winnable to the Reds. That's what really pees me off. This is not the AL east.

And they blew it!

Now they are scrambling to sell off some more players. The question is - when are they going to be buyers?

RedsBaron
07-29-2009, 07:19 PM
The Reds are seemingly the last organization in major league baseball to have no concept of the importance of getting on base.

GAC
07-29-2009, 08:33 PM
The Reds are seemingly the last organization in major league baseball to have no concept of the importance of getting on base.

Oh, Dusty understands the importance..... it's just his philosophy on how it is to be accomplished. It's deeply flawed! :p:

TRF
07-30-2009, 12:07 PM
I just thought I'd drop this in, as it also makes me want to barf.

During ST, Taveras made a claim of 100 SB's. yes his claim was tied to him upping his OBP, but I thought we should know EXACTLY where he sits.

So far WT has reached base 96 times via hit and BB. this does not include FC's or errors. According to ESPN he has 99 TB's and he has a total of 21 SB's. at this rate WT would need to acquire another 300ish Hits/BB's by the end of september just to reach 84 SB's.

I think he has a shot.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 12:25 PM
I just thought I'd drop this in, as it also makes me want to barf.

During ST, Taveras made a claim of 100 SB's. yes his claim was tied to him upping his OBP, but I thought we should know EXACTLY where he sits.

So far WT has reached base 96 times via hit and BB. this does not include FC's or errors. According to ESPN he has 99 TB's and he has a total of 21 SB's. at this rate WT would need to acquire another 300ish Hits/BB's by the end of september just to reach 84 SB's.

I think he has a shot.

If he steals 36 bases against the Pads today, he still won't lead the league.