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View Full Version : We're witnessing nothing short of a miracle in Travis Wood this season.



Kingspoint
07-27-2009, 10:37 PM
When was the last time a pitcher led his league in ERA by more than a run-and-a-half? I can't imagine it's happened very often.

Currently,

1. Wood 1.21 ERA
2. Martinez 2.83 ERA
3. Ely 3.10 ERA

Almost 2 runs less than the #3 pitcher in the league. That's silly.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=l_pit&lid=111

Kingspoint
07-27-2009, 10:42 PM
2008 in the league was:

1. 3.11
2. 3.19
3. 3.24

2007 in the league was:

1. 2.57
2. 2.99
3. 3.06

Just for some perspective.

Kingspoint
07-27-2009, 10:44 PM
That said, it's his 5th season in the minors and it shows that he's ready for AAA. I'm not annointing him for anything, yet.

No reason for him not to be allowed to be the 1st starter called up next season when an injury requires a new starter, unless some guy named Stewart is still in AAA awaiting his time.

Not a bad starting five:

Volquez
Cueto
Bailey
Stewart
Wood

GOYA
07-27-2009, 11:42 PM
For perspective:

Darnell McDonald

w/ Reds - .175/.250/.225 - .475 OPS

w/ Bats - .320/.350/.552 - .902 OPS

There's nothing wrong with optimism but doing it in the minors and doing it in the bigs are two very different things.

Edd Roush
07-28-2009, 08:04 AM
For perspective:

Darnell McDonald

w/ Reds - .175/.250/.225 - .475 OPS

w/ Bats - .320/.350/.552 - .902 OPS

There's nothing wrong with optimism but doing it in the minors and doing it in the bigs are two very different things.

I agree with your general premise, but Dusty construes that kind of thinking to support his play of proven failures (Willy Taveras and Jerry Hairston to a lesser degree) over unproven possibilities in AAA (Heisey and Stubbs). Sure, there is a big jump from AAA to the majors, and I know I am changing the subject, but some guys can make it and some guys can't.

I guess I am just frustrated that in a lost season we are still running Taveras out there every day when we can find out sooner rather tahn later if Stubbs and/or Heisey could hold their own against big league pitching, therefore taking away the gaping hole(s) in left and/or center.

TC81190
07-28-2009, 04:40 PM
I'd prefer to trade him while his value is high. I don't think he will be more than a #4 pitcher in MLB, a 3 at best maybe. Which does have good value, but I think right now he could bring back a player with more value than that.

Homer Bailey
07-28-2009, 04:47 PM
This thread title might be the hyperbole of the decade.

GOYA
07-28-2009, 06:16 PM
I'd prefer to trade him while his value is high. I don't think he will be more than a #4 pitcher in MLB, a 3 at best maybe. Which does have good value, but I think right now he could bring back a player with more value than that.

Have you considered his value as a veteran presence in the Bats' clubhouse? When the Reds purchased him from Lehigh Valley, the Bats starters had an 11-18 record. Since then, the Bats starters are 32-14.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 06:28 PM
This thread title might be the hyperbole of the decade.

Holy Jack Armstrong!

A great half season is a great half season, but a "miracle"? Come on! Remember Volquez's first half last year? That was in the Majors.

klw
07-28-2009, 08:34 PM
This thread title might be the hyperbole of the decade.

No because in his next miracle Travis Wood lays his hands on Wily Taveras and Alex Gonzalez and they both become .400 OBP guys,.

Screwball
07-29-2009, 12:25 AM
Have you considered his value as a veteran presence in the Bats' clubhouse? When the Reds purchased him from Lehigh Valley, the Bats starters had an 11-18 record. Since then, the Bats starters are 32-14.

:confused:

I'm guessing TC is talking about Travis Wood. Are you talking about Justin Lehr?

GOYA
07-29-2009, 12:35 AM
Yes, Lehr.

If I was mistaken...

nevermind.

Sea Ray
07-29-2009, 12:44 PM
That said, it's his 5th season in the minors and it shows that he's ready for AAA. I'm not annointing him for anything, yet.

No reason for him not to be allowed to be the 1st starter called up next season when an injury requires a new starter, unless some guy named Stewart is still in AAA awaiting his time.

Not a bad starting five:

Volquez
Cueto
Bailey
Stewart
Wood


That starting five would not draw raves in the pre season publications. You've got two rookies, one AAAA pitcher (Bailey) and another coming off an injury plagued year. In a nutshell, a lot of question marks...

Edd Roush
07-29-2009, 12:54 PM
That starting five would not draw raves in the pre season publications. You've got two rookies, one AAAA pitcher (Bailey) and another coming off an injury plagued year. In a nutshell, a lot of question marks...

Since when has Homer Bailey proved himself to be a AAAA pitcher? Give me a break.

I'm as upset about Taveras-Gonzalez one-two every day as any body else, but these exxagerrated claims are killing me.

Bailey has way too small of a sample size and is way too young to be putting this kind of label on him yet. You have to let him get to 25 or 26 to label him a AAAA player. You can't count his boucing up and down while he was so young.

M2
07-29-2009, 01:33 PM
Bailey has way too small of a sample size and is way too young to be putting this kind of label on him yet. You have to let him get to 25 or 26 to label him a AAAA player. You can't count his boucing up and down while he was so young.

I don't think he was saying Bailey's permanently a AAAA pitcher, just that he is right now (which is a fair description of anyone bouncing up and down between AAA and the majors).

As for Wood, he is having a spectacular season. It's a reminder that you don't win the race at ages 18 or 20. By the same token, you don't win it at 22 either. The next two or three seasons surely won't go as smoothly for him as 2009 has.

Edd Roush
07-29-2009, 05:43 PM
I don't think he was saying Bailey's permanently a AAAA pitcher, just that he is right now (which is a fair description of anyone bouncing up and down between AAA and the majors).

As for Wood, he is having a spectacular season. It's a reminder that you don't win the race at ages 18 or 20. By the same token, you don't win it at 22 either. The next two or three seasons surely won't go as smoothly for him as 2009 has.

He did not clarify that Bailey was not a temporary AAAA pitcher. There is a really bad stigma with being labeled a AAAA pitcher and Bailey has had a couple rough starts this year, but he has shown some major progress. That fact coupled with the fact he is out of options, means that he will be up with us for a while. I for one believe that Bailey will be at least a league average pitcher of a while and I am sick of this "woe is me" attitude especially as it concerns the pitching staff.

Volquez has been out for most of the season, Cueto & Bailey are still developing and we still have a team ERA+ of 100.

SMcGavin
07-29-2009, 08:41 PM
That said, it's his 5th season in the minors and it shows that he's ready for AAA. I'm not annointing him for anything, yet.

No reason for him not to be allowed to be the 1st starter called up next season when an injury requires a new starter, unless some guy named Stewart is still in AAA awaiting his time.

Not a bad starting five:

Volquez
Cueto
Bailey
Stewart
Wood

If the Reds go into the season counting on Homer Bailey to be their third best starter I might actually cry.

bubbachunk
07-29-2009, 08:47 PM
If the Reds go into the season counting on Homer Bailey to be their third best starter I might actually cry.

I am not going on record or anything but claiming that he has not shot to be by the time next season rolls around is insane. He has shown vast improvement with his prolonged stay thus far and we are still talking about months away.

Kingspoint
07-29-2009, 09:17 PM
That starting five would not draw raves in the pre season publications. You've got two rookies, one AAAA pitcher (Bailey) and another coming off an injury plagued year. In a nutshell, a lot of question marks...

You're right. I wasn't talking about next season...but a future season, maybe 2011 or 2012.

Kingspoint
07-29-2009, 09:20 PM
As for Wood, he is having a spectacular season. It's a reminder that you don't win the race at ages 18 or 20. By the same token, you don't win it at 22 either. The next two or three seasons surely won't go as smoothly for him as 2009 has.

Exactly what I was saying. Just giving him credit for putting together one of the most amazing minor league seasons ever. As I said when stating that "I'm not annointing him for anything...", I just want to point out how very, very rare of a season he is having this year. If you've had a chance to watch him down in Carolina, you've been fortunate. You should get to Louisville if you can. It's probably better than watching a REDS' game, anyway.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 12:29 PM
If the Reds go into the season counting on Homer Bailey to be their third best starter I might actually cry.

C'mon man. I'm right here. :p:

M2
07-30-2009, 01:05 PM
I am not going on record or anything but claiming that he has not shot to be by the time next season rolls around is insane. He has shown vast improvement with his prolonged stay thus far and we are still talking about months away.

If he continues to pitch in the majors for the rest of this season as he has to date, then it would be folly to view him as anything more than a #5 option heading into next year.

Could he pleasantly surprise? Sure, but GMs aren't paid to build teams around wishful thinking.

His lack of options is going to be a huge issue if the Reds are looking to contend in 2010 (or even to put up the pretense of contention). If the team isn't openly in rebuilding mode and he's pitching like this a month into next season, then he's a release candidate.

bubbachunk
07-30-2009, 02:02 PM
If he continues to pitch in the majors for the rest of this season as he has to date, then it would be folly to view him as anything more than a #5 option heading into next year.

Could he pleasantly surprise? Sure, but GMs aren't paid to build teams around wishful thinking.

His lack of options is going to be a huge issue if the Reds are looking to contend in 2010 (or even to put up the pretense of contention). If the team isn't openly in rebuilding mode and he's pitching like this a month into next season, then he's a release candidate.

And 23 year old rookies arent expect to post sub 3 ERAs their first year. You can claim Homer is not a rookie any longer but this is the first time he is getting extended time in the majors and learning.

M2
07-30-2009, 02:09 PM
And 23 year old rookies arent expect to post sub 3 ERAs their first year. You can claim Homer is not a rookie any longer but this is the first time he is getting extended time in the majors and learning.

If only he were a 23-year-old rookie. He's not. Then the Reds would have time and options with him that they don't.

I can tell you this. Pitchers with no options are expected to post sub-6.00 ERAs, sub-5.00 if you're not in rebuilding mode.

Benihana
07-30-2009, 02:13 PM
If only he were a 23-year-old rookie. He's not. Then the Reds would have time and options with him that they don't.

I can tell you this. Pitchers with no options are expected to post sub-6.00 ERAs, sub-5.00 if you're not in rebuilding mode.

The Reds can't help but straddle the fence between rebuilding and contending. Therefore, I expect Homer to post a sub-5.50 ERA next year. How's that for splitting the goalposts?

M2
07-30-2009, 02:19 PM
The Reds can't help but straddle the fence between rebuilding and contending. Therefore, I expect Homer to post a sub-5.50 ERA next year. How's that for splitting the goalposts?

You may be right, though I can't help but think Walt Jocketty will walk past Homer in the locker room one day and think "Smells like Bud Smith."

Benihana
07-30-2009, 02:20 PM
You may be right, though I can't help but think Walt Jocketty will walk past Homer in the locker room one day and think "Smells like Bud Smith."

Maybe that day will be today.

Bailey for Rolen?

bubbachunk
07-30-2009, 02:20 PM
If only he were a 23-year-old rookie. He's not. Then the Reds would have time and options with him that they don't.

I can tell you this. Pitchers with no options are expected to post sub-6.00 ERAs, sub-5.00 if you're not in rebuilding mode.

So the 9 starts in 07 and 8 starts in 08 really constitute experience? I think not, he has been thrown around too much during that time. He needs to be able to pitch without worrying he will get sent back down because of one start. It looks as if he is getting that chance now and 7 games is still a small sample size.

M2
07-30-2009, 02:25 PM
So the 9 starts in 07 and 8 starts in 08 really constitute experience? I think not, he has been thrown around too much during that time. He needs to be able to pitch without worrying he will get sent back down because of one start. It looks as if he is getting that chance now and 7 games is still a small sample size.

They constitute options burned and pitchers without options generally need to perform or they go bye-bye.

The Reds don't have the luxury of treating Bailey like a rookie no matter how much you may want it to be otherwise.

M2
07-30-2009, 02:29 PM
Maybe that day will be today.

Bailey for Rolen?

Trading him for Rolen would constitute the full Bud Smith treatment.

bubbachunk
07-30-2009, 02:32 PM
They constitute options burned and pitchers without options generally need to perform or they go bye-bye.

The Reds don't have the luxury of treating Bailey like a rookie no matter how much you may want it to be otherwise.

Because right now they are in contention?

M2
07-30-2009, 02:45 PM
Because right now they are in contention?

This really isn't tricky. He's on his last option this year. Next year those options are gone.

If the Reds aren't openly in rebuilding next year, and since they've spent a decade avoiding that perception I think we can assume the practice will continue, then Bailey's not going to have the luxury of pitching the way he's pitching currently at the major league level.

Clearly you expect him to pitch better next season and maybe he will. I have no expectations for him. All I'm saying is he better improve or he won't be pitching for the Reds. That's just the way the game works.

bubbachunk
07-30-2009, 03:01 PM
This really isn't tricky. He's on his last option this year. Next year those options are gone.

If the Reds aren't openly in rebuilding next year, and since they've spent a decade avoiding that perception I think we can assume the practice will continue, then Bailey's not going to have the luxury of pitching the way he's pitching currently at the major league level.

Clearly you expect him to pitch better next season and maybe he will. I have no expectations for him. All I'm saying is he better improve or he won't be pitching for the Reds. That's just the way the game works.

What I am and have been saying is lets see how this year finishes out before you make judgments about next year.

M2
07-30-2009, 03:08 PM
What I am and have been saying is lets see how this year finishes out before you make judgments about next year.

He'll certainly be getting his share of work the next two months and I'm sure every semi-positive thing he does will be treated like it's an epiphany, just like it has been for the past five years.

I do think the next two months will go a long way in determining whether the Reds decide to roll on him next year. For instance, if he doesn't lower that ERA below 6.00 before the end of the season (and even a bad pitcher should be able to do that), then I find it difficult to imagine the team is going to have much faith in him.

lollipopcurve
07-30-2009, 03:19 PM
I'm sure every semi-positive thing he does will be treated like it's an epiphany, just like it has been for the past five years.

Just like every poor start, going back to his days in Dayton, is greeted by declarations of his being a failure.

Let's not pretend the board has not reverted to extremes on both ends of the spectrum re: Bailey.

He's been rushed -- that's why he's short on options. But he's improving. And it should be expected that he will continue to improve. It took him awhile to get in a groove in AAA, but he ended up dominating there. Very good sign. If the organization is smart, they'll see that improvement through, or they'll deal him while he can bring value.

He's an asset right now, not an albatross.

M2
07-30-2009, 03:33 PM
He's an asset right now, not an albatross.

I'd say he's neither. He's a kid pitching for a job. And seeing that he's exactly where I forecasted he'd be since before the Reds drafted him (unestablished and soon to be out of options), I'm going to make the very reasonable claim that you look elsewhere when looking for examples extreme Homer drama. For the record, I don't think he's washed out with the Reds, but he's getting very close to it.

FWIW, I think it's unfortunate he got plucked out of AAA when he did (though I understand why he was tabbed as Volquez's replacement). Had he stayed on a roll down there I think he'd have been a clear asset at this very moment.

I suspect he's not that highly desired at the moment. Mind you, the only time the Reds ever seem to want to move Homer is when his market sags.

Benihana
07-30-2009, 03:35 PM
He's been rushed -- that's why he's short on options. But he's improving. And it should be expected that he will continue to improve. It took him awhile to get in a groove in AAA, but he ended up dominating there. Very good sign.

Is he?

2007: 45 IP, 28 BB, 5.76 ERA
2008: 36.1 IP, 17 BB, 7.93 ERA
2009: 38 IP, 22 BB, 6.87 ERA


If the organization is smart, they'll see that improvement through, or they'll deal him while he can bring value.

He's an asset right now, not an albatross.

IMO, right now he is the pitching version of Brandon Phillips 2005, or Wladimir Balentien 2009. He is a faded prospect with a lot of talent, but can't put it together in his current environment.

As much as it pains me to say it, he may be worth more in a trade than he is to the Reds. He very well may blossom with another team, but unless he turns it around quickly, it is looking less and less likely that that team will be the Reds.

Maybe the Reds should consider a faded prospect swap a la Garza-Young 2007?

TRF
07-30-2009, 04:22 PM
Homer Bailey could be the next Edwin Jackson.

If the Reds trade him to Seattle or Detroit.

He could have been Josh Beckett had they not started his clock so damn early. complete mismanagement by the Reds FO. That's on Krivsky for starting it, and Walt for not leaving him in the minors to develop even though the clock was started.

He has a chance to be something. Maybe even something special. I think however, it will be somewhere else.

Benihana
07-30-2009, 04:53 PM
Homer Bailey could be the next Edwin Jackson.

If the Reds trade him to Seattle or Detroit.

He could have been Josh Beckett had they not started his clock so damn early. complete mismanagement by the Reds FO. That's on Krivsky for starting it, and Walt for not leaving him in the minors to develop even though the clock was started.

He has a chance to be something. Maybe even something special. I think however, it will be somewhere else.

+1

M2
07-30-2009, 05:25 PM
Homer Bailey could be the next Edwin Jackson.

If the Reds trade him to Seattle or Detroit.

He could have been Josh Beckett had they not started his clock so damn early. complete mismanagement by the Reds FO. That's on Krivsky for starting it, and Walt for not leaving him in the minors to develop even though the clock was started.

He has a chance to be something. Maybe even something special. I think however, it will be somewhere else.

I agree with most of that outside of the Beckett part (who was precocious in ways Homer never was). I'd say he's just coming into what might be the start of a promising career, though it might take him two or three years to settle in.

If I had to pick a comp for a what a successful Homer Bailey might look like, I'd say perhaps Matt Clement (obviously with a curve instead of a slider).

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 05:45 PM
Since learning the splitter, he's had 3 very very solid outings, and 2 bad outings against arguably 2 of the top 3 offenses in the NL. His walk rate is below 3 for the month.

Yes he is improving.

M2
07-30-2009, 06:03 PM
Since learning the splitter, he's had 3 very very solid outings, and 2 bad outings against arguably 2 of the top 3 offenses in the NL. His walk rate is below 3 for the month.

Yes he is improving.

Here's his numbers for the month:

1-2, 6.28, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 30 H, 5 HR, 9 BB, 18 K

Eric Milton was good in his good starts too. He just didn't have nearly enough of them and the bad ones were doozies.

Bailey's supposedly been just about to turn the corner for years and, IMO, people (fans and those in Reds management) keep making the mistake of giving him credit for having turned it before he has.

Back to Travis Wood, because this is a Travis Wood thread, does he have to be added to the 40-man roster after this season or does he get one more season's grace?

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 06:18 PM
Here's his numbers for the month:

1-2, 6.28, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 30 H, 5 HR, 9 BB, 18 K

Eric Milton was good in his good starts too. He just didn't have nearly enough of them and the bad ones were doozies.

Bailey's supposedly been just about to turn the corner for years and, IMO, people (fans and those in Reds management) keep making the mistake of giving him credit for having turned it before he has.

Back to Travis Wood, because this is a Travis Wood thread, does he have to be added to the 40-man roster after this season or does he get one more season's grace?

Wood's got one more season I believe.

No one is saying Bailey has "turned it around." But in the last month, if you've watched his starts, I am seeing (for the first time) that he truly has the potential to be a major league starter. He's shown up horrendously in 2 starts, and very solid in 2. And oh yeah, he's 23.

GIDP
07-30-2009, 06:28 PM
Ive heard stories about Josh Beckett being in bars nights before his starts in the WS. I think that one might have came out of Thom Brennemans mouth.

Benihana
07-30-2009, 06:30 PM
Ive heard stories about Josh Beckett being in bars nights before his starts in the WS. I think that one might have came out of Thom Brennemans mouth.

I'm pretty sure he was in Chicago in 2003 during the NLCS. I was living there at the time.

GIDP
07-30-2009, 06:33 PM
I'm pretty sure he was in Chicago in 2003 during the NLCS. I was living there at the time.

Yea that might have been when the game was. I remember him saying he saw him at some bar and said "do you think Nolan Ryan would be here" and Beckett said something along the lines of Im not Nolan Ryan or Nolan Ryan isnt me or something.

He wasnt drinking I dont think but I remember thom mentioning it to prove a point of how Beckett is his own cat and hes gonna do it his way.

M2
07-30-2009, 06:41 PM
Wood's got one more season I believe.

No one is saying Bailey has "turned it around." But in the last month, if you've watched his starts, I am seeing (for the first time) that he truly has the potential to be a major league starter. He's shown up horrendously in 2 starts, and very solid in 2. And oh yeah, he's 23.

Good news on Wood. Hopefully the Reds resist adding him to the 40-man until perhaps a late season callup next season.

I'll take your word for this being the "first time" you've ever considered Bailey to be a potential major league starter, but your handle makes me doubt it slightly.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 06:48 PM
Good news on Wood. Hopefully the Reds resist adding him to the 40-man until perhaps a late season callup next season.

I'll take your word for this being the "first time" you've ever considered Bailey to be a potential major league starter, but your handle makes me doubt it slightly.

Naturally I could see how one would think that because of my handle I would be Homer obsessive. But to tell you the truth, I made this name before I knew much about Homer at all. I really didn't know anything about the Reds minor league system at all, or the minor leagues in general before I started reading this site. I was so excited when he got the call up but never saw what made scouts rave about him so much. Awful command, no life on the fastball, propensity for the long ball, etc.

This year he has certainly shown flashes of the problems he has experienced in the past, but he has also shown a much more lively fastball, a nasty split (when he can control it), and an ability to pitch to contact effectively at times. His K rate isn't where I'd like it to be, but I love watching him pitch now much more than I did in 2007 or 2008. His stride looks better, he is using his length better, and he's shown a lot more maturity.

Sorry to hijack the thread. We can get back to Wood now.

dougdirt
07-30-2009, 07:02 PM
Good news on Wood. Hopefully the Reds resist adding him to the 40-man until perhaps a late season callup next season.

I'll take your word for this being the "first time" you've ever considered Bailey to be a potential major league starter, but your handle makes me doubt it slightly.

I believe Wood has to be protected this December.

Homer Bailey
07-30-2009, 07:05 PM
I believe Wood has to be protected this December.

Next year will be his 5th in the org right? Do you need to be locked up before or after your 5th year?

JohnDoe
07-31-2009, 12:15 PM
Major league teams must protect players on their 40-man rosters within three or four years of their original signing. Those left unprotected are available to other teams as Rule 5 picks.

Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after four minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after three seasons.

This information is from Baseball America.

Edit: I think the article should state that teams must protect players NOT on their 40 man roster.

JohnDoe
07-31-2009, 12:15 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askbarule5.html

Link to above quote.