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View Full Version : Does Jonny Gomes have trade value?



Benihana
07-28-2009, 09:31 AM
He is OPSing .989 after last night's game. He's OPS'd over .900 for one other major league season before, so it's hard to call it a simple fluke. In this respect, he reminds me a lot of another former Ray/Red Jorge Cantu.

Gomes is 29 years old making the league minimum. Could he be a valuable add for a playoff contender? Would he bring back much of anything in a trade? Discuss.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 09:34 AM
If the Reds can find a buyer, then they need to sell Gomes.

Unfortunately, what's likely to happen is that management will suddenly think Gomes can reproduce what he's doing this year and will ink him to an extension. What you'll then likely see is the 2010 Jonny Gomes remind us of the 2009 Jerry Hairston Jr.

REDREAD
07-28-2009, 09:46 AM
He is OPSing .989 after last night's game. He's OPS'd over .900 for one other major league season before, so it's hard to call it a simple fluke. In this respect, he reminds me a lot of another former Ray/Red Jorge Cantu.

Gomes is 29 years old making the league minimum. Could he be a valuable add for a playoff contender? Would he bring back much of anything in a trade? Discuss.


I'm not sure there'd be that much interest in him, although I have not been following other teams very much this year. If he wasn't a defensive liability, I think there's more interest. I guess I don't see much demand for a platoon LF that can not play D. If we did trade him, I'm not sure we'd even get a Maloney calibar prospect for him. I'd rather just keep guys like Gomes to finish off the year with. Obviously, if some team gets crazy and offers a prospect that is even a potential legit ML reserve, then you do it.. but I see no point in trading Gomes for just organizational fodder.

traderumor
07-28-2009, 09:46 AM
If the Reds can find a buyer, then they need to sell Gomes.

Unfortunately, what's likely to happen is that management will suddenly think Gomes can reproduce what he's doing this year and will ink him to an extension. What you'll then likely see is the 2010 Jonny Gomes remind us of the 2009 Jerry Hairston Jr.Or he could remind us of Jorge Cantu when we let him go for nothing and he continues to hit well somewhere else.

Highlifeman21
07-28-2009, 12:40 PM
If the Reds can find a buyer, then they need to sell Gomes.

Unfortunately, what's likely to happen is that management will suddenly think Gomes can reproduce what he's doing this year and will ink him to an extension. What you'll then likely see is the 2010 Jonny Gomes remind us of the 2009 Jerry Hairston Jr.

Just as long as the Reds don't sell Laynce Nix.

The Reds can only break my heart so many times, so many ways over The Lost Decade.

savafan
07-28-2009, 12:42 PM
Umm...eventually, we're going to have to still have someone left to suit up on the major league roster.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 12:44 PM
Umm...eventually, we're going to have to still have someone left to suit up on the major league roster.

If they are punting the season, there's plenty of AAA fodder. Darnell McDonald says :wave:

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 12:46 PM
If the Reds can find a buyer, then they need to sell Gomes.

Unfortunately, what's likely to happen is that management will suddenly think Gomes can reproduce what he's doing this year and will ink him to an extension. What you'll then likely see is the 2010 Jonny Gomes remind us of the 2009 Jerry Hairston Jr.

Hairston's highest OPS in seasons where he played 100+ games: .725 Worst: .523

Gomes highest OPS in seasons where he played 100+ games: .906 Worst: .757.

Gomes at his worst is better than Hairston at his best.

But I agree, it would be a bad move to sign Gomes long term. He's a butcher in the field.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2009, 12:50 PM
An outfield of Nix (Rf) and Gomes (Lf) is better than Gomes (Lf) and Bruce (Rf).

Just sayin'.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 01:00 PM
An outfield of Nix (Rf) and Gomes (Lf) is better than Gomes (Lf) and Bruce (Rf).

Just sayin'.

I don't know what you are sayin'.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:07 PM
Hairston's highest OPS in seasons where he played 100+ games: .725 Worst: .523

Gomes highest OPS in seasons where he played 100+ games: .906 Worst: .757.

Gomes at his worst is better than Hairston at his best.

But I agree, it would be a bad move to sign Gomes long term. He's a butcher in the field.

You completely missed the parallel, which is that the Reds have a knack for picking up a veteran on a flyer, watching said veteran over-perform, then inking him to an extension and giving him far more playing time than he deserves the following season while regressing back to his career norms.

Jonny Gomes' career norms getting regular playing time in a corner outfield slot for the Reds in 2010 is not going to be getting the job done, just like Jerry Hairston's career norms aren't getting the job done in 2009.

TheNext44
07-28-2009, 01:14 PM
You completely missed the parallel, which is that the Reds have a knack for picking up a veteran on a flyer, watching said veteran over-perform, then inking him to an extension and giving him far more playing time than he deserves the following season while regressing back to his career norms.

Jonny Gomes' career norms getting regular playing time in a corner outfield slot for the Reds in 2010 is not going to be getting the job done, just like Jerry Hairston's career norms aren't getting the job done in 2009.

I agree with you on that. Gomes should not get an extension, and should not get regular playing time, barring injuries.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 01:17 PM
You completely missed the parallel, which is that the Reds have a knack for picking up a veteran on a flyer, watching said veteran over-perform, then inking him to an extension and giving him far more playing time than he deserves the following season while regressing back to his career norms.

Jonny Gomes' career norms getting regular playing time in a corner outfield slot for the Reds in 2010 is not going to be getting the job done, just like Jerry Hairston's career norms aren't getting the job done in 2009.

What would you consider to be Gomes' career norms? He has had an erratic career, where he blew up in 2005, had average years in 2006-2007, awful 2008 (didn't he have shoulder issues in 2007-2008?) and now having a very solid season.

This was the argument versus Juan Rivera this offseason and I see some similarities in the 2 cases. When guys are coming off of injury riddled seasons, you shouldn't really use their stats as a true measurement of their talent levels.

redsmetz
07-28-2009, 01:18 PM
So we wouldn't want Gomes on our bench (which was the plan originally anyway)? I don't buy that whole "if he's here, Dusty will play him" bunk. Gomes and Nix have gotten the playing time they have mostly due to the platoon that came up and the injuries we've suffered. I think Gomes can be of value off the bench. He's not a full time answer.

But if there is value for him (and that's the key word), then by all means trade him.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 01:20 PM
You completely missed the parallel, which is that the Reds have a knack for picking up a veteran on a flyer, watching said veteran over-perform, then inking him to an extension and giving him far more playing time than he deserves the following season while regressing back to his career norms.

Jonny Gomes' career norms getting regular playing time in a corner outfield slot for the Reds in 2010 is not going to be getting the job done, just like Jerry Hairston's career norms aren't getting the job done in 2009.

All but one season in Gomes' career, though, he's played at or above the level of an average LF. That's despite playing in, what is quite honestly, a pitcher's park.

Now he's playing in a hitter's park (and doing that very well). And it's not like this is the first season he's performed at this level.

I don't advocate signing him long-term for a variety of reasons. But I do think the Reds should sign him to another year or two if they can get him for a reasonable price. He's teetering on the brink of earning a shot as an every day starter, and worst case scenario, would be a tremendous asset as a fourth starter - but again, he's performed (at worse) most of his career no worse than an average LF starter. He might not be inclined to hit this well beyond this year, but even some regression makes him statistically a worthy candidate to start for the Reds, IMHO.

Will M
07-28-2009, 01:23 PM
the Reds don't have to sign hom to a long term deal. he is arbitration eligible.
i WANT him back for 2010. get a LH bat similar to Nix (minor league deal) to compete with Dorn. Gomes plus Nix type/Dorn hold down LF until Frazier/Alonso arrive. Fairly cheap in house option.

also his poor 2007 & 2008 was due to a bum shoulder.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:26 PM
All but one season in Gomes' career, though, he's played at or above the level of an average LF. That's despite playing in, what is quite honestly, a pitcher's park.

Now he's playing in a hitter's park (and doing that very well). And it's not like this is the first season he's performed at this level.

I don't advocate signing him long-term for a variety of reasons. But I do think the Reds should sign him to another year or two if they can get him for a reasonable price. He's teetering on the brink of earning a shot as an every day starter, and worst case scenario, would be a tremendous asset as a fourth starter - but again, he's performed (at worse) most of his career no worse than an average LF starter. He might not be inclined to hit this well beyond this year, but even some regression makes him statistically a worthy candidate to start for the Reds, IMHO.

Jonny Gomes is a platoon outfielder who can help a team against southpaws but is very likely to hurt a team against right-handers. In 1,055 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Gomes has crushed the ball to the tune of .223/.313/.440/.752. When you think about it, Gomes' worth is about 200 to 250 plate appearances per season. That's about it, and that's what has to be thought about before handing a couple million bucks over to him.

I don't have any problems with Jonny Gomes against southpaws, provided he isn't banking roll. He hits them well enough to tolerate his defense, and maybe the Reds could be fortunate if they could find a left-handed hitting corner outfielder to pair him up with. But if Jonny Gomes is playing against right-handed pitchers with any degree of even semi-regularity, then the team's got problems.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:28 PM
Just as long as the Reds don't sell Laynce Nix.

The Reds can only break my heart so many times, so many ways over The Lost Decade.

I'll sell Laynce Nix and his inability to get on base. His walk rate is putrid and he'll be 29 in late October.

What we see from Nix this season is what he is, and that's not good enough for a corner outfield slot - even a platoon slot - on a team that wants to contend.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 01:29 PM
Also, his name is Jonny Johnson Gomes. How awesome is that? That's worth an extra year on the contract by itself.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:30 PM
the Reds don't have to sign hom to a long term deal. he is arbitration eligible.
i WANT him back for 2010. get a LH bat similar to Nix (minor league deal) to compete with Dorn. Gomes plus Nix type/Dorn hold down LF until Frazier/Alonso arrive. Fairly cheap in house option.

also his poor 2007 & 2008 was due to a bum shoulder.

Quite honestly, that's the type of solution that 75-win teams often seek out. And that's part of the reason why 75-win teams remain as 75-win teams.

I want solutions that 90+ win teams seek out, and too many times what people on this board seem to want typically do not qualify.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 01:36 PM
Jonny Gomes is a platoon outfielder who can help a team against southpaws but is very likely to hurt a team against right-handers. In 1,055 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Gomes has crushed the ball to the tune of .223/.313/.440/.752. When you think about it, Gomes' worth is about 200 to 250 plate appearances per season. That's about it, and that's what has to be thought about before handing a couple million bucks over to him.

I don't have any problems with Jonny Gomes against southpaws, provided he isn't banking roll. He hits them well enough to tolerate his defense, and maybe the Reds could be fortunate if they could find a left-handed hitting corner outfielder to pair him up with. But if Jonny Gomes is playing against right-handed pitchers with any degree of even semi-regularity, then the team's got problems.

Even those splits against right-handers, his OPS is an average LF. So basically what you're saying is that you have an average-hitting LF against right-handers, but a career .895 OPS against left-handers - great by any measure and in this day and age, that's not worth a couple million?

Maybe I'm missing something. But to have a (at worst) league average hitter at a position for a price that is less than a normal amount for a hitter at that position seems like a benefit to the club. For the production, Gomes in a normal year would give similar results to some of the LF on the market but for a fifth of the price. That's actually exactly what the Reds need.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:41 PM
Even those splits against right-handers, his OPS is an average LF. So basically what you're saying is that you have an average-hitting LF against right-handers, but a career .895 OPS against left-handers - great by any measure and in this day and age, that's not worth a couple million?

Maybe I'm missing something. But to have a (at worst) league average hitter at a position for a price that is less than a normal amount for a hitter at that position seems like a benefit to the club. For the production, Gomes in a normal year would give similar results to some of the LF on the market but for a fifth of the price. That's actually exactly what the Reds need.

First, you're wrong on the league averages. The average NL LFer has a .340 on-base percentage and a .772 OPS; Gomes against right-handed pitching is precisely not league average. Instead, he's likely costing you nearly 30 points in OBP, and that's going to crush an offense.

The Reds need real, sustainable production, not players who jump up and disappear like a mirage. If they want to find a meaningful left-handed hitting platoon outfielder to pair up with Gomes and then stick with that platoon, then fine. But the Reds' way too often is bringing that type of player back and giving him too many plate appearances the following year beyond what that player is capable of.

If the Reds can find some value on the trade market for Gomes, then send him packing.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 01:54 PM
First, you're wrong on the league averages. The average NL LFer has a .340 on-base percentage and a .772 OPS; Gomes against right-handed pitching is precisely not league average. Instead, he's likely costing you nearly 30 points in OBP, and that's going to crush an offense.

The Reds need real, sustainable production, not players who jump up and disappear like a mirage. If they want to find a meaningful left-handed hitting platoon outfielder to pair up with Gomes and then stick with that platoon, then fine. But the Reds' way too often is bringing that type of player back and giving him too many plate appearances the following year beyond what that player is capable of.

If the Reds can find some value on the trade market for Gomes, then send him packing.

We'll have to disagree on what constitutes league average because most studies I've seen define league average at LF as right at .750 OPS.

As far as this mirage you speak of, Gomes has performed at or above this level we're discussing in all but one, injury-riddled season of his career. No one is saying they're signing him with the expectation he'll repeat a .900-plus OPS, but even at 'league-average' he's a bargain. Any team that can find league-average OPS at most positions for a savings will find themselves in great financial position to add the players necessary to aim for the 90-win plateau you spoke of in an earlier post.

He's spent two seasons between .750 and .780 and another two between .900 and (currently) .990. Even by your definition of league average, taking away his one isolated injury season, he's been basically above league average in 3 of his 4 other seasons. Hard for me to see that as being a mirage.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2009, 01:55 PM
The Reds need real, sustainable production, not players who jump up and disappear like a mirage. If they want to find a meaningful left-handed hitting platoon outfielder to pair up with Gomes and then stick with that platoon, then fine. But the Reds' way too often is bringing that type of player back and giving him too many plate appearances the following year beyond what that player is capable of.

If the Reds can find some value on the trade market for Gomes, then send him packing.


Yep.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 01:59 PM
We'll have to disagree on what constitutes league average because most studies I've seen define league average at LF as right at .750 OPS.

As far as this mirage you speak of, Gomes has performed at or above this level we're discussing in all but one, injury-riddled season of his career. No one is saying they're signing him with the expectation he'll repeat a .900-plus OPS, but even at 'league-average' he's a bargain. Any team that can find league-average OPS at most positions for a savings will find themselves in great financial position to add the players necessary to aim for the 90-win plateau you spoke of in an earlier post.

He's spent two seasons between .750 and .780 and another two between .900 and (currently) .990. Even by your definition of league average, taking away his one isolated injury season, he's been basically above league average in 3 of his 4 other seasons. Hard for me to see that as being a mirage.

I'll repeat this one more time: a .313 lifetime on-base percentage against right-handed pitching. Mix in butcher defense, and that's a disaster for corner outfield production.

But hey, that's the Reds' way of doing things so if history repeats itself, you'll get your way. If that status quo is acceptable, have fun with it.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:00 PM
Even those splits against right-handers, his OPS is an average LF. So basically what you're saying is that you have an average-hitting LF against right-handers, but a career .895 OPS against left-handers - great by any measure and in this day and age, that's not worth a couple million?

Maybe I'm missing something. But to have a (at worst) league average hitter at a position for a price that is less than a normal amount for a hitter at that position seems like a benefit to the club. For the production, Gomes in a normal year would give similar results to some of the LF on the market but for a fifth of the price. That's actually exactly what the Reds need.

It depends on the makeup of the rest of the team.

Let me be specific- here's the problem:

Assume Jonny Gomes is your 2010 LF. Taking your assumptions, Jonny Gomes is an average LF offensively and well below average defensively. Who is your CF?
If it's Drew Stubbs, you make up for having a defensively weak LF. But you have a very weak offensive OF.
If it's Chris Heisey, you could potentially have a strong offensive OF, but your OF defense is suspect.
If it's Willy Taveras, your team sucks.

Personally, none of those three options particularly appeal to me.

That said, I do like Gomes. I liked it when we picked him up, I was sad when he didn't make the OD roster, and I was happy to see him increase his PT this summer. Assuming he continues to cost less than $2MM, I would gladly employ him as a 4th OF/1st RH bat off the bench, but I'm not sure this team can afford to pencil him into the everyday lineup for the next couple years. That would be a very Reds-like thing to do, and that's not a good thing.

I'd be probing the market right now to see if some contender (Atlanta? San Fran? An AL team in need of a DH?) doesn't offer up a legit prospect to rent his bat. Even better, maybe he could be part of a package for Escobar.

nate
07-28-2009, 02:14 PM
It depends on the makeup of the rest of the team.

Let me be specific- here's the problem:

Assume Jonny Gomes is your 2010 LF. Taking your assumptions, Jonny Gomes is an average LF offensively and well below average defensively. Who is your CF?
If it's Drew Stubbs, you make up for having a defensively weak LF. But you have a very weak offensive OF.
If it's Chris Heisey, you could potentially have a strong offensive OF, but your OF defense is suspect.
If it's Willy Taveras, your team sucks.


I thought Heisy's D was good? Not Stubbs good, but good.

BRM
07-28-2009, 02:15 PM
I thought Heisy's D was good? Not Stubbs good, but good.

That's what I've heard/read. Heisey is good, Stubbs is other-worldy.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:19 PM
That's what I've heard/read. Heisey is good, Stubbs is other-worldy.

That's fair, but my point is that you need other-worldly defense in CF to make up for Gomes' glove in LF.

REDREAD
07-28-2009, 02:20 PM
I agree with you on that. Gomes should not get an extension, and should not get regular playing time, barring injuries.

I wouldn't mind inviting Gomes back for about what he made this year.. But yeah, no 2 year, 8 million dollar contract for him :)

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:22 PM
I'm still not sure if the question posed in this thread has been answered.

What do you guys think- does Jonny Gomes have trade value?

PuffyPig
07-28-2009, 02:22 PM
An outfield of Nix (Rf) and Gomes (Lf) is better than Gomes (Lf) and Bruce (Rf).

Just sayin'.

I think if you asked a million people who they would want to play RF for them , Nix or Bruce, all one million would say Bruce (except, apparently, you).

Highlifeman21
07-28-2009, 02:26 PM
I'll sell Laynce Nix and his inability to get on base. His walk rate is putrid and he'll be 29 in late October.

What we see from Nix this season is what he is, and that's not good enough for a corner outfield slot - even a platoon slot - on a team that wants to contend.

But he spells his name with a Y!

That's gotta trump all kinda veteran scrapiness, or something like that!

I mean I want good players on the Reds too, but it just seems that the Reds are willing to overpay for crap, burn money on retreads, and keep guys way past their prime.

They just don't have the money to commit to talent, b/c they're too busy burning money other places.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 02:26 PM
I'll repeat this one more time: a .313 lifetime on-base percentage against right-handed pitching. Mix in butcher defense, and that's a disaster for corner outfield production.

But hey, that's the Reds' way of doing things so if history repeats itself, you'll get your way. If that status quo is acceptable, have fun with it.

OPS has a higher correlation to run production than just taking OBP alone in a vacuum does it not? He still slugs the ball pretty well even against right-handers. Not really fair to separate OBP and ignore the fact the overall OPS is around average production.

To further illustrate my point:

I took the other 29 teams around MLB right now. Do you realize that the average salary of left fielders is $7.6 mil. Of those 29 players, 17 of them are making $6 mil or more.

The Reds have an opportunity to retain (it seems) a slightly above-average LF for, one would think, a third of the cost of that. I may not be a Moneyball fantatic, but that seems like the kind of value the Reds need. Do that at 4-5 positions and get above-average hitters at the rest, and suddenly you have a very potent offense.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:28 PM
Do that at 4-5 positions and get above-average hitters at the rest, and suddenly you have a very potent offense.

And a very poor defense. We see what that has gotten them in the past 5+ years.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 02:29 PM
And a very poor defense. We see what that has gotten them in the past 5+ years.

Who said anything about putting his defensive caliber at every position? I'm advocating that at one position, not eight.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 02:31 PM
OPS has a higher correlation to run production than just taking OBP alone in a vacuum does it not? He still slugs the ball pretty well even against right-handers. Not really fair to separate OBP and ignore the fact the overall OPS is around average production.

Sure it does, but his on-base percentage against right-handed pitching is so awful that:

1) His slugging cannot make up for it
2) His slugging is capped at a low figure which isn't going to increase unless his OBP increases

When OBP ability drops as low as Gomes' OBP against right handers, that's bad for all kinds of business.


To further illustrate my point:

I took the other 29 teams around MLB right now. Do you realize that the average salary of left fielders is $7.6 mil. Of those 29 players, 17 of them are making $6 mil or more.

The Reds have an opportunity to retain (it seems) a slightly above-average LF for, one would think, a third of the cost of that. I may not be a Moneyball fantatic, but that seems like the kind of value the Reds need. Do that at 4-5 positions and get above-average hitters at the rest, and suddenly you have a very potent offense.

Gomes' total package is not slightly above average for a left fielder. He's a below average hitter, and he's a brutal defender.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:31 PM
Who said anything about putting his defensive caliber at every position? I'm advocating that at one position, not eight.

It comes with the package, does it not?

If you have an above-average player both offensively and defensively, chances are he's not going to be cheap.

See my post above for why I don't like Gomes as an everyday player for the Reds in the future.

TRF
07-28-2009, 02:33 PM
And a very poor defense. We see what that has gotten them in the past 5+ years.

No, we see what the worst pitching in the NL has gotten them. The defense certainly didn't help, but an OF of Mike Cameron, Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter couldn't help Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, Matt Belisle et al.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 02:33 PM
Sure it does, but his on-base percentage against right-handed pitching is so awful that:

1) His slugging cannot make up for it
2) His slugging is capped at a low figure which isn't going to increase unless his OBP increases

When OBP ability drops as low as Gomes' OBP against right handers, that's bad for all kinds of business.



Gomes' total package is not slightly above average for a left fielder. He's a below average hitter, and he's a brutal defender.

Even your version of average (.772), he's been above that 75 percent of his career that he's been healthy. How is that a below average hitter? That does not make sense. Even your version of what constitutes average, his overall numbers have been above that most of his career. In fact, even including his atrocious year last season, where he was awful because of his shoulder injury, his career OPS is over .800 including his 550 PA's against right-handers.

traderumor
07-28-2009, 02:33 PM
Gomes defensive rap has not played itself out for the Reds. He is better than Dunn (ducks).

Will M
07-28-2009, 02:34 PM
Quite honestly, that's the type of solution that 75-win teams often seek out. And that's part of the reason why 75-win teams remain as 75-win teams.

I want solutions that 90+ win teams seek out, and too many times what people on this board seem to want typically do not qualify.

have to disagree.

first of all I wanted CC Sabathia last winter. this winter I want Lackey.
lets add a few more grade A studs while we are at it. however, i don't have $150M to buy the Reds nor $50M/year to flush away if I did. the Reds are a small market team and always will be. we cannot have a payroll the size of the Mets, Yankees, etc.

we have two in top prospects that are playing LF (Frazier) or in the case of Alonso may push Votto to LF. one or both may arrive by midseason 2010.
on top of that Gomes is OPS+ing 163 vs RHP & 160 vs LHP. to spend a ton of money (Holliday) or prospects (trade) to fix LF would be a poor choice of the teams resources.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 02:34 PM
I'm still not sure if the question posed in this thread has been answered.

What do you guys think- does Jonny Gomes have trade value?

Yes. I think he would work well in a platoon with a NL team with a LH OFer or with an AL team with a LH DH. If you can get some talent for him, then he is good to go.

If you are getting nothing in return, I would rather see them bring him back to get 300 PAs next year, mostly giving a rest to guys like Bruce and Dickerson and as a late inning PH.

Guys like him have some value in the NL due to the non use of the DH.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2009, 02:34 PM
If I'm putting a below-average defender out there (even if it is LF) he better be above-average offensively.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 02:36 PM
It comes with the package, does it not?

If you have an above-average player both offensively and defensively, chances are he's not going to be cheap.

See my post above for why I don't like Gomes as an everyday player for the Reds in the future.

Right now, if we're looking at Stubbs or Heisey in center next season, Bruce in right, Hanigan at catcher, Phillips at second and potentially Rolen at third, without knowing yet who will wind up at short, that's a pretty good start to the defensive spectrum - enough to withstand a hit in left and at first (if we consider Votto below average).

Will M
07-28-2009, 02:36 PM
I'm still not sure if the question posed in this thread has been answered.

What do you guys think- does Jonny Gomes have trade value?

yes. a team needing an offensive punch from LF or DH could use Gomes and be willing to trade a decent prospect for him

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:37 PM
No, we see what the worst pitching in the NL has gotten them. The defense certainly didn't help, but an OF of Mike Cameron, Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter couldn't help Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, Matt Belisle et al.

What about last year?

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:40 PM
Right now, if we're looking at Stubbs or Heisey in center next season, Bruce in right, Hanigan at catcher, Phillips at second and potentially Rolen at third, without knowing yet who will wind up at short, that's a pretty good start to the defensive spectrum - enough to withstand a hit in left and at first (if we consider Votto below average).

So you're OK defensively and fair at best offensively. Pitching still a huge ?

Doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me.

Benihana
07-28-2009, 02:42 PM
yes. a team needing an offensive punch from LF or DH could use Gomes and be willing to trade a decent prospect for him

I'd love to land a decent prospect for Gomes. If not, bring him back as the 4th OF and first bat off the bench.

corkedbat
07-28-2009, 02:44 PM
As long as he doesn't cost too much, I have no problem keeping Gomes around. I want better when it comes to OF starters, but he's valuable as a RH bat off the bench and a fill-in in cae of injury. From what I've read, he also seems to be a decent presence in the clubhouse. I think Gomes is the kind of 2nd tier journeyman vet you want on the bench.

He might have some trade value, but it's probably not more than his value to the Reds. He's repoductive, but not making enough that he's not so expensive that he's gonna block a prospect if that production fallsoff. That said, while I'd consider keeping him around, that doesn't mean I'd be giving him a 2yr/$6M contract in the offseason to do so.

Stormy
07-28-2009, 02:45 PM
Yes. I think he would work well in a platoon with a NL team with a LH OFer or with an AL team with a LH DH. If you can get some talent for him, then he is good to go.

If you are getting nothing in return, I would rather see them bring him back to get 300 PAs next year, mostly giving a rest to guys like Bruce and Dickerson and as a late inning PH.

Guys like him have some value in the NL due to the non use of the DH.

I'm with you. If he can fetch a decent return, then it's a no brainer. However, there is ample value in bringing him back in his first arbitration year, and letting him play the role of 'extra OF with pop.' This is especally the case given that we have absolutely no heir apparent in LF, and that our RF will be returning from a serious injury and hasn't hit a lick of LHP to date.

If Gomes doesn't land you a desirable prospect, I think bringing him back is exactly what '90 win teams' do. He is a potent bench bat, who has great platoon splits, and the ability to post above average production for a 4th OF if required to start over a prolonged stretch due to injury etc...

Re-signing Hairston was folly because Dusty was a cinch to misuse him as a #2 hitter, and default starter at multiple positions. Gomes, though, is actually the type of extra OF you want on a winner, so that when an OF invariably goes down, we don't have to resort to miscast Rosales, Hairston (or for that matter Nix) types.

The sound strategy is to DEFINITELY go out and acquire a potent RHH bat for LF in the off season, but that doesn't preclude bringing Gomes back.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 02:46 PM
Even your version of average (.772), he's been above that 75 percent of his career that he's been healthy. How is that a below average hitter? That does not make sense. Even your version of what constitutes average, his overall numbers have been above that most of his career. In fact, even including his atrocious year last season, where he was awful because of his shoulder injury, his career OPS is over .800 including his 550 PA's against right-handers.

What part of lifetime .313 on-base percentage against right-handers are you failing to read?

He's an absolute liability against right-handed pitching. I don't get what's so difficult to comprehend about that fact.

TRF
07-28-2009, 02:47 PM
What about last year?

Still crap, but with potential. Cueto had a 5+ era, Harang was pretty awful. The 5th starter was historically bad. Arroyo was good for a half a season, as was Volquez.

Reds1
07-28-2009, 02:50 PM
He would be a great AL player.

corkedbat
07-28-2009, 02:52 PM
Right now, if we're looking at Stubbs or Heisey in center next season, Bruce in right, Hanigan at catcher, Phillips at second and potentially Rolen at third, without knowing yet who will wind up at short, that's a pretty good start to the defensive spectrum - enough to withstand a hit in left and at first (if we consider Votto below average).

I wouldn't mind making a run at Hardy in FA, but given the premium on SS with any kind of bat at all, we probably can't afford him. Not real big on a deal for Rolen, but if it's gonna happen, I'd probably try to acquire Scutaro along with him.

I don't see him as any type of longterm solution, but he might be a hedge against not landing a better option, he could be an upgrade over what we have now and a one-year bridge to Cozart.

I wouldn't give up a Frazier/Stewart level prospect to get him though.

edabbs44
07-28-2009, 02:53 PM
What part of lifetime .313 on-base percentage against right-handers are you failing to read?

He's an absolute liability against right-handed pitching. I don't get what's so difficult to comprehend about that fact.

Average LF OBP is .340
Gomes career OBP vs RHP is .313

Even if Gomes got 500 ABs versus RHP (and only RHP, since the average LF OBP is versus everyone and we are only looking at Gomes' lesser side), we'd be talking about 13 extra outs that Gomes would be making than the average OBP for a LFer. 13. I think the difference between "average" and "absolute liability" would be more than 13 outs, wouldn't you?

Now, give him normal splits (which would include him mashing lefties) and the difference is negligible.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 02:58 PM
What part of lifetime .313 on-base percentage against right-handers are you failing to read?

He's an absolute liability against right-handed pitching. I don't get what's so difficult to comprehend about that fact.

You're talking about OBP against right-handers. I'm talking about overall career OPS against everyone. There's nothing to comprehend. I'm looking at the entire picture, not just one half of OPS against one split.

You're defining someone below league average based on a portion of their stats against one split. That's sort of the same as people complaining about Adam Dunn's batting average to call him below average while not yielding to his on-base percentage. Only in this case you're ignoring his overall OPS as a whole is better than average for his career to instead focus on his OBP against right-handers.

Some clarifications:

1. Not making him into something he isn't. He's an .800 OPS plus hitter when healthy for his career.

2. He's not very good defensively.

3. Not advocating a long-term extension or paying more than $2-$3 mil a year.

4. I advocate that because he's statistically, for his career as a whole (and not just as one split), an above-average hitter for his position that could potentially be signed for a third of the cost of an average hitter for his position.

5. His OBP against RHP is bad. It's mostly (read: exclusively) the product of his high strikeout totals, causing the drop in average. His walk rates remain consistent against RH's.

The big picture: if .772 is the average for LF position, then for his career, even including his shoulder-injury awful .680 OPS season, he's still 20 points above that including all his time against righties. If signed for the amount I mentioned, that's getting an average or slightly above average hitter for a significant amount less than most teams have to pay their left-fielders. I am sure he'll cost the Reds some runs, making him around average (considering more LF are poor defensively than not). But big picture, he's a bargain.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 03:05 PM
You're talking about OBP against right-handers. I'm talking about overall career OPS against everyone. There's nothing to comprehend. I'm looking at the entire picture, not just one half of OPS against one split.

And you're wanting to give him 350+ plate appearances against right-handed pitching by running him out there every day. When a guy such as Gomes has such drastic career splits, I don't care much what his overall averages are. I care to know the areas where he can help a team and where he hurts a team.

Jonny Gomes can help a team hitting left-handers. He'll hurt a team hitting right-handers. The simple solution is do not play him against right-handers.

nate
07-28-2009, 03:15 PM
No, we see what the worst pitching in the NL has gotten them. The defense certainly didn't help, but an OF of Mike Cameron, Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter couldn't help Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, Matt Belisle et al.

Maybe if they had jetpacks!

:cool:

Brutus
07-28-2009, 03:17 PM
And you're wanting to give him 350+ plate appearances against right-handed pitching by running him out there every day. When a guy such as Gomes has such drastic career splits, I don't care much what his overall averages are. I care to know the areas where he can help a team and where he hurts a team.

Jonny Gomes can help a team hitting left-handers. He'll hurt a team hitting right-handers. The simple solution is do not play him against right-handers.

There are not too many players in baseball that you can run out there every day without having to worry about being exposed to some sort of weakness. Even worse, some of these same left fielders routinely get paid double-figure millions to be vulnerable to certain splits.

Heck, Juan Rivera plays every day despite a career .335 OBP against right-handers and he has a similar slugging as Gomes.

I just do not define a .750 OPS against right-handers as hurting the team. I am more concerned with OPS, wOBA or GPA than I am just looking at OBP. I would be concerned with OBP if it were a function of low walk-totals, but he still draws walks which is good because it means even if he is slumping, he can still get on base.

I would hope, and this goes for most hitters, that the Reds would have a good left-handed hitter on the bench that could play for Gomes on days facing tough right-handers or guys he has struggled against in the past. But I would say that for any team composition - know your strengths and weaknesses. Every team will have those.

pahster
07-28-2009, 03:25 PM
OPS is a pretty silly metric, Brutus. When you make use of it, you're implicitly assuming that one point of OBP is equal to one point of SLG (it's not because the measures are scaled differently). You're also counting hits twice, which is another major problem.

TRF
07-28-2009, 03:25 PM
Maybe if they had jetpacks!

:cool:

And trampolines.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 03:33 PM
OPS is a pretty silly metric, Brutus. When you make use of it, you're implicitly assuming that one point of OBP is equal to one point of SLG (it's not because the measures are scaled differently). You're also counting hits twice, which is another major problem.

OPS might be 'silly' but it has a .95 correlation to run production, whereas OBP and SLG are around the .88 to .83 range respectively.

I myself prefer GPA (1.8*OBP + SLG / 4), which weights the two more to the lines you're mentioning, or wOBA. But I didn't really feel like looking those numbers up for the discussion, so I used OPS since it's one of the highest responsive metrics available and its ease of availability.

OPS is not my favorite stat. Not by far. But despite it's simplicity, and degree of irrationality, it sure does fare well in gauging run production. The differences between that and the other metrics of preference (which I mentioned above) are negligible enough to sacrifice some accuracy for sake of speed in this kind of setting.

Cyclone792
07-28-2009, 03:35 PM
There are not too many players in baseball that you can run out there every day without having to worry about being exposed to some sort of weakness. Even worse, some of these same left fielders routinely get paid double-figure millions to be vulnerable to certain splits.

Heck, Juan Rivera plays every day despite a career .335 OBP against right-handers and he has a similar slugging as Gomes.

I just do not define a .750 OPS against right-handers as hurting the team. I am more concerned with OPS, wOBA or GPA than I am just looking at OBP. I would be concerned with OBP if it were a function of low walk-totals, but he still draws walks which is good because it means even if he is slumping, he can still get on base.

I would hope, and this goes for most hitters, that the Reds would have a good left-handed hitter on the bench that could play for Gomes on days facing tough right-handers or guys he has struggled against in the past. But I would say that for any team composition - know your strengths and weaknesses. Every team will have those.

You're still missing the point, which is that hitters who cannot hit right-handed pitching aren't going to help the team if they're playing regularly against right-handed pitching. Mix in the brutal defense, and it's a bad situation.

One of the easiest things to identify is poor players performing poorly, and that's what Gomes' history suggest against right-handed pitching. Why a team trying to contend would try to go against that grain, I do not know, but then this is the Cincinnati Reds and they try to go against a whole bunch of mystifying grains (i.e. Willy T) that oftentimes blow up in their face. Playing Gomes every day against right-handers in 2010 would just fit that same bill.

Moving past that, if you're contentrating on his OPS while ignoring his OBP, then you're missing a key SLG ingredient, which is ... OBP. Low OBPs cap SLGs at a low end, and that's precisely what's happened to Gomes against right-handers. With Gomes' inability to reach base against right-handers, he's essentially leaving himself zero room for slugging growth and that's another downfall for him.

pahster
07-28-2009, 03:42 PM
OPS might be 'silly' but it has a .95 correlation to run production, whereas OBP and SLG are around the .88 to .83 range respectively.


OPS correlates higher with run scoring at the team level than either OBP or SLG do because it counts hits twice. It's an artifact in the data, nothing more.

Brutus
07-28-2009, 03:47 PM
OPS correlates higher with run scoring at the team level than either OBP or SLG do because it counts hits twice. It's an artifact in the data, nothing more.

I'm not supporting the science or rationality of it, I'm simply using the results. It works. It shouldn't work. But it does.

*BaseClogger*
07-28-2009, 03:48 PM
If you can get a decent prospect for Gomes he has to go.

It's selling high. Jonny Gomes is NOT a .294 hitter, and his BA is driving up his OBP and SLG. He plays poor defense and he will be a quick ager. I think he presents a lot of value as a platoon outfielder, but those kind of players aren't very difficult to find (exhibit a... Jonny Gomes) and should be turned into prospects by teams out of the race when the player's value is artificially inflated...

pahster
07-28-2009, 03:54 PM
I'm not supporting the science or rationality of it, I'm simply using the results. It works. It shouldn't work. But it does.

Ice cream sales correlate at a high level with crime levels. Just because two variables correlate with one another doesn't mean the relationship is meaningful. This is especially true when there exists a great deal of systematic measurement error in one (OPS).

Why do we care about correlation when we have the ability to calculate the marginal effect of one thing on another (say of OBP/SLG/etc. on runs scored)?

bucksfan2
07-28-2009, 04:07 PM
If you can get a decent prospect for Gomes he has to go.

It's selling high. Jonny Gomes is NOT a .294 hitter, and his BA is driving up his OBP and SLG. He plays poor defense and he will be a quick ager. I think he presents a lot of value as a platoon outfielder, but those kind of players aren't very difficult to find (exhibit a... Jonny Gomes) and should be turned into prospects by teams out of the race when the player's value is artificially inflated...

Why isn't Gomes a .294 hitter? Why can't he improve?

Just asking out of curiosity. Too often players get labeled a certain type of player and they can never escape that label. What Gomes is doing isn't unprecedented. He actually had a pretty good season his first full year in the majors, but then tailed off the next 3 seasons. Who knows what caused that, IIRC he had a shoulder injury that caused a drop of last year, I wonder how long that shoulder was a lingering injury.

The difference between his BA and OBP has always been around .080-.100 points. I wouldn't necessarily say that his BA is keeping up his OBP and SLG because that is what Gomes has done throughout his career. This season Gomes has an OPS of .962 against right handers. He actually has more plate appearances against RH pitching than LH pitching.

I am not for signing Gomes to an extension, just using the arbitration process to keep him a Red until he reaches FA. The issue with trading Gomes is whether or not the prospect possess a game that can help the Reds as much as Gomes can. IMO he is a little different case than you normal waiver wire pickup. He has played pretty steadily over the course of the season, he hasn't cooled off like we have see Nix. I think the best way to approach Gomes is to offer him Arb in the off season, sign him to another one year deal, and hope he plays similar to the way he is this season. Heck running him out in LF is a much better thing than running JHJ out.

Homer Bailey
07-28-2009, 04:15 PM
FWIW I agree with BaseClogger completely. Don't have the time for a long view of my analysis on Gomes but I think he is stating the case very well.

Gomes could also be the case of a guy coming from the AL to the NL and dominating. We should be targeting more AL guys.

*BaseClogger*
07-28-2009, 04:17 PM
Why isn't Gomes a .294 hitter? Why can't he improve?

Just asking out of curiosity. Too often players get labeled a certain type of player and they can never escape that label. What Gomes is doing isn't unprecedented. He actually had a pretty good season his first full year in the majors, but then tailed off the next 3 seasons. Who knows what caused that, IIRC he had a shoulder injury that caused a drop of last year, I wonder how long that shoulder was a lingering injury.

Data. He hit .272 in 1,946 career MiLB ABs and he has hit .240 in 1,383 MLB ABs. Players don't just reinvent their skill sets at 28. Usually when people observe it that way it was really just random noise going on in a small data set.


The difference between his BA and OBP has always been around .080-.100 points. I wouldn't necessarily say that his BA is keeping up his OBP and SLG because that is what Gomes has done throughout his career. This season Gomes has an OPS of .962 against right handers. He actually has more plate appearances against RH pitching than LH pitching.

I get that and it's what makes him a nice hitter. He has paitence and power, and those things usually don't slump. But he's really more of a .250 hitter than a .300 hitter, and when he gets that 50 point BA boost from random singles it drives his OBP and SLG up 50 points too.


I am not for signing Gomes to an extension, just using the arbitration process to keep him a Red until he reaches FA. The issue with trading Gomes is whether or not the prospect possess a game that can help the Reds as much as Gomes can. IMO he is a little different case than you normal waiver wire pickup. He has played pretty steadily over the course of the season, he hasn't cooled off like we have see Nix. I think the best way to approach Gomes is to offer him Arb in the off season, sign him to another one year deal, and hope he plays similar to the way he is this season. Heck running him out in LF is a much better thing than running JHJ out.

I won't be upset or anything if they hold onto him. Hopefully that means they just didn't get any decent offers.

He hasn't cooled off yet because he hasn't been exposed by as long of a period as Nix was.

Again, I wouldn't mind if he is back on as a platoon outfielder, I would just rather turn him into a prospect and get a shiny new "Jonny Gomes" this offseason...