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M2
07-30-2009, 06:33 PM
Scott Elbert's always been a fascination of mine.

LoganBuck
07-30-2009, 06:45 PM
http://failblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/tree-over-truck.jpg?w=500

jojo
07-30-2009, 07:08 PM
Sorry jojo to be the spelling police, but for a guy as smart as you why do you always spell his last name "Alonzo"? The curiousity is just killing me...

My spell checker doesn't catch it?

TheNext44
07-30-2009, 08:00 PM
If it takes Alonzo to get Rolen, doesn't it make more sense to just sign Beltre this fall?

I'd rather sign Chone Figgens. Great glove, great at getting on base. And a lot cheaper than Beltre. But yeah, makes no sense to trade either Alonzo or Alonso for Rolen.

I read that it was the Jays who asked for Alonso anyway, not the Reds offering, which fits, considering what they've been asking for Halladay.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 08:05 PM
What's interesting, though, is that another team circling the drain has been similarly inactive at this deadline: Milwaukee. The Brewers are definitely stalled in their progress.

It must be quite an adjustment, this market, for a good many GMs.

jojo
07-30-2009, 08:09 PM
What's interesting, though, is that another team circling the drain has been similarly inactive at this deadline: Milwaukee. The Brewers are definitely stalled in their progress.

It must be quite an adjustment, this market, for a good many GMs.

Its a little surprising that they aren't dangling Hardy.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 08:13 PM
The two biggest principals to move at this deadline are Holliday and Lee. Pretty small potatoes. Hard times ahead for teams like the Reds, Brewers, Indians, and even a team like the Twins with very little cash to play with and an irritable trade market. Hunker down and hope for something from the minors to carry the day.

I guess it may in part explain the Reds' expansion in scouting and their recent willingness to draft some large-dollar-figure kids (not Maury fat babies).

Matt700wlw
07-30-2009, 09:17 PM
Dodgers have Kershaw and Billingsley
White Sox have Buerhle
Angels have Weaver
For their park size, Millwood's pitching like a TOR guy.

The only two true contending teams on your list without a TOR guy are the Phillies and Rockies. But the Phils just added one, further evidence that they're a team who understands: no ace, no relevance.

Really?

That's not what you said in the "Cliff Lee to the Phillies" thread


Cliff Lee is really not all that great. I wouldn't sweat it if I were the Dodgers.


Sure, the Phillies are good. Probably the best in the NL, but I don't necessarily see the Phils' rotation as better, even with Lee.

Mr. consistant at his best...

Ltlabner
07-30-2009, 09:23 PM
Really?

That's not what you said in the "Cliff Lee to the Phillies" thread

Mr. consistant at his best...

http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs32/f/2008/205/e/7/Burn_Burn_Burn__FIRE_by_bikershead.gif

Nice burn.

PuffyPig
07-30-2009, 09:24 PM
Really?

That's not what you said in the "Cliff Lee to the Phillies" thread


Mr. consistant at his best...

Ah, but you forget Matt that FCB idicates he only changes his opinion when the facts change.

Didn't you realize that Lee went from "just another starter" to a "top of the rotation guy" between starts?

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 09:25 PM
Really?

That's not what you said in the "Cliff Lee to the Phillies" thread





Mr. consistant at his best...


I'll be honest; when I made the first comments about LA not worrying, I hadn't looked at Lee's stats; I thought he had struggled this season.

OnBaseMachine
07-30-2009, 09:25 PM
Matt, great post. I just about fell out of my chair laughing. :D:thumbup:

Jpup
07-30-2009, 09:36 PM
I'll be honest; when I made the first comments about LA not worrying, I hadn't looked at Lee's stats; I thought he had struggled this season.

That's the problem about commenting on something that you don't know about and stating it like it's a fact. There is too much of that that goes on around here.

Listen, I watch more baseball that 99 percent of the folks on this board. For someone to sit and tell me that the Dodgers rotation is better than the Phillies with Cliff Lee is outrageous.

PuffyPig
07-30-2009, 09:37 PM
I'll be honest....

That's the third time today you've said things for the first time. First you said you were wrong. I forget the second and am too lazy to refresh my memory. But now you admit you're going to be honest.

What next?

Are you going to cry?

It's like the Golden Sombrero of Cherry Poppings.

PS, I learn a long time ago that when someone says "I'll be honest", they are not used to telling the truth. Why else do you have to warn us that the truth is coming? Shouldn't we expect it?

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 09:39 PM
That's the problem about commenting on something that you don't know about and stating it like it's a fact. There is too much of that that goes on around here.

Listen, I watch more baseball that 99 percent of the folks on this board. For someone to sit and tell me that the Dodgers rotation is better than the Phillies with Cliff Lee is outrageous.


Get tough on crime, McGruff.

Jpup
07-30-2009, 09:40 PM
Get tough on crime, McGruff.

How old are we?

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 09:41 PM
That's the third time today you've said things for the first time. First you said you were wrong. I forget the second and am too lazy to refresh my memory. But now you admit you're going to be honest.

What next?

Are you going to cry?

It's like the Golden Sombrero of Cherry Poppings.

PS, I learn a long time ago that when someone says "I'll be honest", they are not used to telling the truth. Why else do you have to warn us that the truth is coming? Shouldn't we expect it?

Now you're just getting pathological.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2009, 09:43 PM
How old are we?

never mind. It's just going to get folks thrown off the board.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-30-2009, 09:44 PM
Come on folks, FCB is good peeps.

Even I disagree with him at times, but he keeps this board moving.

At least he admitted he made a mistake.

I think this season (and trade deadline) is making us all a little more moody than normal. We'll get through this. lol.

M2
07-30-2009, 09:44 PM
How old are we?

Apparently old enough to remember McGruff. Didn't he used to pal around with Zippy the Pinhead?

Brutus
07-30-2009, 09:51 PM
Most people and their stability within a certain subject:

http://businomics.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/24/temp1.jpg


FCB within a certain subject:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/edu/power-pouvoir/ch9/images/scatter5.gif

Tommyjohn25
07-30-2009, 11:21 PM
Rule number 5 guys. You all know better.

Stormy
07-30-2009, 11:44 PM
The two biggest principals to move at this deadline are Holliday and Lee. Pretty small potatoes. Hard times ahead for teams like the Reds, Brewers, Indians, and even a team like the Twins with very little cash to play with and an irritable trade market. Hunker down and hope for something from the minors to carry the day.

I guess it may in part explain the Reds' expansion in scouting and their recent willingness to draft some large-dollar-figure kids (not Maury fat babies).

It would certainly seem that way. It makes it all the more difficult as a Reds' fan to watch the profound impact someone like Holliday is already having with the Cards. Conversely, our fanbase realizes that even on that rare occasion when the planets align, we might not even be in the market to add the missing piece to the puzzle. We're in limbo right now, and if certain players/salaries can't be moved, I'm not sure the way out in the short-run. I'm not pleased with the substance of Walt's tenure so far, but I'm not sure he anticipated/foresaw these pitfalls when he took the position.

Stormy
07-30-2009, 11:46 PM
Rule number 5 guys. You all know better.

It's about time. FCB prefaced his remark about Lee with 'I don't necessarily think', then amended his position after a little research. And for that it's open season?

paulrichjr
07-31-2009, 12:26 AM
It's about time. FCB prefaced his remark about Lee with 'I don't necessarily think', then amended his position after a little research. And for that it's open season?

I agree. He can be a pain sometimes (as all of us can be) but he admitted he had misspoken.

WVRedsFan
07-31-2009, 01:01 AM
It would certainly seem that way. It makes it all the more difficult as a Reds' fan to watch the profound impact someone like Holliday is already having with the Cards. Conversely, our fanbase realizes that even on that rare occasion when the planets align, we might not even be in the market to add the missing piece to the puzzle. We're in limbo right now, and if certain players/salaries can't be moved, I'm not sure the way out in the short-run. I'm not pleased with the substance of Walt's tenure so far, but I'm not sure he anticipated/foresaw these pitfalls when he took the position.
OK, I'm about to get on my soapbox, and as us older folks sometimes do, it probably will upset some who have the opinion that they know everything and refuse to back down from that opinion. It's Ok because I'm doing the same thing.

I'm not pleased with Walt's tenure. Not one bit, but I know the problems he has and I somewhat understand. I don't like it, but I understand. He was saddled with a club with Adam Dunn, Junior Griffey, and not much else offensively. Junior and Dunn drove in a lot of runs, and the rest of the cast didn't really do much. He inherited a club with so many bench players that it looked like a cheap Sears Craftsman set. So many tools and none of them really that good. He got an expensive closer on a team that wasn't good enough to have one. He inherited a pitching staff that included a two very young pitchers, one who got hurt and another who just hasn't matured enough to be dominant consistently yet.

He saw the writing on the wall and traded Adam Dunn to Arizona for Michael Owings (really, wasn't that all it was). Owings has been a disappointment and got hurt. Really. He traded Junior Griffey to Chicago for basically Massett. That's worked out. He lost two guys who could turn a game around in an instant and had no answers for this. Take away 175 RBI's. That's hard to replace, but the money demanded it.

He was stuck with a manager, one who had been a winner, something the Reds hadn't had since Davey Johnson and Sweet Lou, but one who has some disadvantages in lineup construction and philosophy. It wouldn't have made sense to make a move so soon.

He had to trade Freel and some of the chaff that his predessor brought in so he could get the club settled somewhat. That was good, but it wasn't enough. Ramon Hernandez, a real MLB catcher came on and did fairly well, but got hurt. But he was stuck with Alex Gonzalez at short, a guy who hasn't even had a cup of coffee over three years and also a guy who no one wanted because of the lucrative contract someone else gave him. His outfield, once one who had over 200 RBI's became one that might get 150 betwen them. And he made mistakes:

1. Getting rid of Corey Patterson was smart, but replacing him with Willy Traveras in hopes he could come around and get on base was an unwise gamble.

2. Assuming that Jay Bruce would replace some of the production of Dunn and Griffey was foolhardy. Unproven rookies do not usually do that unless they happened to be named Albert and those come along once in a lifetime.

3. Signing JHJ to a contract based on one season in which he did things he had never done before at his age.

4, Refusing to trade Homer Bailey for a real bat for the outfield, banking on Bailey being the next big thing.

5. Relying on Edwin Encarcinon to improve at third. It's not going to happen. He'll be the typical player who gets on base but doesn't drive in runs often enough to be valuable.

6. Expecting David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, and Jared Burton to continue to be lights out. Weathers is simply a crap shoot, Lincoln is unreliable, and Burton has other problems. Who knew? He should have.

He's done some good things. Signing Nix and Gomes, really good 4th or 5th outfielders, was Ok. Bringing in Arthur Rhodes was brilliant.

But the biggest frustration is keeping Bailey, Encarnacion, and Hairston is keeping the club from being able to wheel and deal, make some moves, and improve. To some these players are sacred cows, but only when they are not, will things improve. It's time to make some changes.

The 2009 season was a season of promise to many, but I knew that unless run production could be improved, this team had no chance to win. They hung in there for awhile, but when the pitching failed, which was predicable, it all came tumbling down. Pitching and defense if good, but only when your team can score some runs, and it was obvious from the beginning that this team was offensively challenged. And so, here we are. And I see no end in sight.

WVRedsFan
07-31-2009, 01:02 AM
It's about time. FCB prefaced his remark about Lee with 'I don't necessarily think', then amended his position after a little research. And for that it's open season?

Typical.

Caveat Emperor
07-31-2009, 01:18 AM
It's about time. FCB prefaced his remark about Lee with 'I don't necessarily think', then amended his position after a little research. And for that it's open season?

It's always good to learn more about subjects, but perhaps the lesson to learned is not to stake your claim to positions when you, by your own later admission, have little or no information on the subject. Baseball-Reference.com or Fangraphs.com can be a useful aid to us all.

Having said that, let's keep the discussion on track. If you want to discuss Mr. City Beer, you can certainly create a fan-group to talk about him or perhaps found your own site FCBZone.com. Keep this thread on topic. Last warning.

And, if you must impeach someone with their prior testimony, at least be professional and courteous about it.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2009, 02:20 AM
I'll be honest; when I made the first comments about LA not worrying, I hadn't looked at Lee's stats; I thought he had struggled this season.

The fact that you use a players current production to determine whether or not he is good or not is a subject that bothers me and I'm guessing a lot of others. Cueto is good when he was pitching that way, Arroyo was horrible when he was pitching that way, Lee is pitching well this year so he must be a TOR starter now. Not trying to pick a fight or pile on but I just have a problem with that definition of good or bad. Good pitchers can and most definitely will struggle at times and at times for long stretches and vice versa. Cueto has TOR stuff, Volquez has TOR stuff they also have shown long stretches where they actually produce at those levels therefore they are good TOR pitchers.

Quit saying they are not and then backing that up with what they are currently doing as proof. That is all people are saying. Well that and the fact you bait us with that argument or just simply don't know what you are talking about. I really don't believe you don't know what you are talking about so I presume you are baiting in which case isn't cool to kick a guy (or a group of them) when they are down.

Guacarock
07-31-2009, 05:18 AM
The Reds will rise again, but it will involve growing pains and baby steps.

Let me be the first on Redszone to predict: A pennant-winning season in 2012.

Jocketty will pull it out of his jockstrap to set the wheels in motion but he will have vanished before the glory gets celebrated. Dusty, Jacoby, Pole and company will be long gone, because they are part and parcel of the problem, not the solution.

Joey Votto will lead us to glory, Bruce will contribute mightily if not as legendarily, and Cueto, Volquez and Bailey will be their pitching counterparts. We'll also get relief from a young bullpen crew.

Bear in mind: The darkest hour is always right before the dawn.

We have a decent futuristic core in place, so we should not lose sight of that fact as we justifiably bemoan our current losing drift, or our seemingly endless banishment on a downward spiraling treadmill. Cubs fans have endured worse disappointments. Let's not be as defeatist or stinking obnoxious as they are.

LoganBuck
07-31-2009, 07:08 AM
Walt is having a problem with the Cash for Clunkers Program.

LoganBuck
07-31-2009, 07:11 AM
Bear in mind: The darkest hour is always right before the dawn.



But you see dawn is typically followed by light, 2010 is lost as well.

But hey football season starts next week.

Eric_the_Red
07-31-2009, 07:15 AM
The Reds will rise again, but it will involve growing pains and baby steps.

Let me be the first on Redszone to predict: A pennant-winning season in 2012.

Jocketty will pull it out of his jockstrap to set the wheels in motion but he will have vanished before the glory gets celebrated. Dusty, Jacoby, Pole and company will be long gone, because they are part and parcel of the problem, not the solution.

Joey Votto will lead us to glory, Bruce will contribute mightily if not as legendarily, and Cueto, Volquez and Bailey will be their pitching counterparts. We'll also get relief from a young bullpen crew.

Bear in mind: The darkest hour is always right before the dawn.

We have a decent futuristic core in place, so we should not lose sight of that fact as we justifiably bemoan our current losing drift, or our seemingly endless banishment on a downward spiraling treadmill. Cubs fans have endured worse disappointments. Let's not be as defeatist or stinking obnoxious as they are.

oRGUqd_M6Mg

princeton
07-31-2009, 07:33 AM
The Reds will rise again, but it will involve growing pains and baby steps.

Let me be the first on Redszone to predict: A pennant-winning season in 2012.

Jocketty will pull it out of his jockstrap to set the wheels in motion but he will have vanished before the glory gets celebrated. Dusty, Jacoby, Pole and company will be long gone, because they are part and parcel of the problem, not the solution.

Joey Votto will lead us to glory, Bruce will contribute mightily if not as legendarily, and Cueto, Volquez and Bailey will be their pitching counterparts. We'll also get relief from a young bullpen crew.

Bear in mind: The darkest hour is always right before the dawn.

We have a decent futuristic core in place, so we should not lose sight of that fact as we justifiably bemoan our current losing drift, or our seemingly endless banishment on a downward spiraling treadmill. Cubs fans have endured worse disappointments. Let's not be as defeatist or stinking obnoxious as they are.


Cast's 2007 plan that became 2009 is now 2012?

probably right, but looks a lot like 2015 to me

that WJ hiring rocks.

nate
07-31-2009, 08:57 AM
Walt is having a problem with the Cash for Clunkers Program.

Heh!

edabbs44
07-31-2009, 09:01 AM
Cast's 2007 plan that became 2009 is now 2012?

probably right, but looks a lot like 2015 to me

that WJ hiring rocks.

I think to blame a delay of any plan is pretty unfair to Jocketty. He wasn't the one who jammed up the bank account with those wonderful contracts.

M2
07-31-2009, 09:05 AM
I think to blame a delay of any plan is pretty unfair to Jocketty. He wasn't the one who jammed up the bank account with those wonderful contracts.

That is so not the problem.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 09:14 AM
That is so not the problem.
But it IS part of the problem.

flyer85
07-31-2009, 09:18 AM
FCB within a certain subject:

that really isn't necessary

BRM
07-31-2009, 09:22 AM
So we can probably expect Weathers to be gone today. Maybe Rhodes. Everyone else stays.

Ltlabner
07-31-2009, 09:25 AM
So we can probably expect Weathers to be gone today. Maybe Rhodes. Everyone else stays.

A.K.A. Window Dressing

M2
07-31-2009, 09:53 AM
But it IS part of the problem.

Not really. While Harang and Arroyo aren't having the seasons the team ideally wants, they do a huge turn of work. They aren't cashing their paychecks from the training room.

Plus, a club that clearly anticipates nothing and walk headlong into obvious pitfalls isn't going to save itself with a new round of cash on hand. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to insist the Reds could set everything right if they could only free up $35 million from the current payroll.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 10:02 AM
Their contracts can't be dismissed as a reason why we're still hoping that Arroyo or Harang will be dealt and why Cordero won't be dealt. Everyone wants the Reds to make a deal but thanks to those contracts it's just not that easy. So, imo, yes that IS a problem.

Strikes Out Looking
07-31-2009, 10:10 AM
Not really. While Harang and Arroyo aren't having the seasons the team ideally wants, they do a huge turn of work. They aren't cashing their paychecks from the training room.

Plus, a club that clearly anticipates nothing and walk headlong into obvious pitfalls isn't going to save itself with a new round of cash on hand. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to insist the Reds could set everything right if they could only free up $35 million from the current payroll.

How much different would this season have turned out if the Reds had an established right handed power hitter in LF. I think it changes the whole complexion of the season--maybe they don't win the division but a lot of things are different down the line. And that is where the blame can go to Walt and Bob--no matter what Aaron and Bronson make.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 10:11 AM
How much different would this season have turned out if the Reds had an established right handed power hitter in LF. I think it changes the whole complexion of the season--maybe they don't win the division but a lot of things are different down the line. And that is where the blame can go to Walt and Bob--no matter what Aaron and Bronson make.

yep

edabbs44
07-31-2009, 10:12 AM
Not really. While Harang and Arroyo aren't having the seasons the team ideally wants, they do a huge turn of work. They aren't cashing their paychecks from the training room.

Plus, a club that clearly anticipates nothing and walk headlong into obvious pitfalls isn't going to save itself with a new round of cash on hand. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to insist the Reds could set everything right if they could only free up $35 million from the current payroll.

It is even more wishful thinkg to think that Walt has a million options that he is turning a blind eye to. To bring ML talent into the org you either need to spend money or trade something of value. The Reds have a ton of money locked up in bad contracts. And the sad part is that those same guys are Cincy's supposed main trading chips. When the Yankees think that your pitchers have unreasonable contracts for them, you know you are in trouble.

So I really can't see Walt having many options to turn this thing around soon.

Benihana
07-31-2009, 10:14 AM
There are plenty of trading chips in the minor leagues.

Can someone please explain to me what good it is to have two CFers in AAA- especially if each has substantial trade value and you already have two (three?) CFers on the big club?

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 10:14 AM
Not really. While Harang and Arroyo aren't having the seasons the team ideally wants, they do a huge turn of work. They aren't cashing their paychecks from the training room.

But they are cashing large checks they largely don't deserve. Less than league average for both of them at more than $10 million per season. Sure, they eat innings and there's value in that, but it's not worth that scratch at all.


Plus, a club that clearly anticipates nothing and walk headlong into obvious pitfalls isn't going to save itself with a new round of cash on hand. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to insist the Reds could set everything right if they could only free up $35 million from the current payroll.


Obvious pitfalls like the injuries to EdE, Phillips, Votto, Dickerson, Bruce, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Volquez, Owings et al? I know you plan on injuries to some extent, but whose season wouldn't be destroyed by these? Six erstwhile offensive starters will have logged, on average, more than a month of DL time between them. Two rotation members have hit the DL and another has complained about a season-long discomfort as well. I think even the vaunted Red Sox would struggle were that to happen.

I agree that, so far, Jocketty has largely been underwhelming. Especially galling in that is that he seemed so good in St. Louis. But this trainwreck, while certainly partially his fault, isn't all on him. Along with a wise GM, you also have to have money to spend and players to play.

Homer Bailey
07-31-2009, 10:18 AM
That's the problem about commenting on something that you don't know about and stating it like it's a fact. There is too much of that that goes on around here.

Listen, I watch more baseball that 99 percent of the folks on this board. For someone to sit and tell me that the Dodgers rotation is better than the Phillies with Cliff Lee is outrageous.


In a series against each other, I'll take Billingsly/Kershaw against the lefty Phillies over Hamels/Lee against the righty stacked LA lineup.

Billingsly has struggled recently, but I think he is a better pitcher than Hamels. It's tough to make a case for one pitcher over the other, so I'm fine calling this a wash.

But Kershaw has been absolutely unhittable for the last 2 months. Wandy Rodriguez, Lincecum, and Wainwright are the only pitchers that have even been close to this guy for the last month. In his 3rd and 4th starts of the year, he gave up a combined 15 ER's. In his other 18 starts, he's given up just 22!

Wolf vs. Blanton is tricky - Not that I think Wolf is a world beater, but I think he's better than Blanton. JB has been hot lately, but these are the months he typically does well. The other months are the reason he isn't that good of a pitcher. And again, I'll take the lefty vs the lefty dominant Phils.

OldXOhio
07-31-2009, 10:22 AM
How much different would this season have turned out if the Reds had an established right handed power hitter in LF. I think it changes the whole complexion of the season--maybe they don't win the division but a lot of things are different down the line. And that is where the blame can go to Walt and Bob--no matter what Aaron and Bronson make.

What would have changed, the attitude in the clubhouse? Production from LF wasn't leading the league by any means, but it certainly was adequate the first 2-3 months of the season.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 10:22 AM
Along with a wise GM, you also have to have money to spend and players to play.
Pretty much sums up the problems with the Reds this year.

M2
07-31-2009, 10:23 AM
It is even more wishful thinkg to think that Walt has a million options that he is turning a blind eye to. To bring ML talent into the org you either need to spend money or trade something of value. The Reds have a ton of money locked up in bad contracts. And the sad part is that those same guys are Cincy's supposed main trading chips. When the Yankees think that your pitchers have unreasonable contracts for them, you know you are in trouble.

So I really can't see Walt having many options to turn this thing around soon.

Every GM has a million options. If no GM is going to take Harang or Arroyo's contracts and give you the prospects you want, then do something else. That's not the only move Jocketty can make. If only he had relievers to sell at the deadline. Oh wait, he does. If only he had prospects. Oh wait, he does.

Does Arroyo become salable if you package him with Yonder Alonso?

You can play whack-a-mole with every idea that people around here drum up, but that doesn't change the main problem - the Reds have almost no ideas being put into action ... and you can't fund a lack of invention.

TRF
07-31-2009, 10:23 AM
Their contracts can't be dismissed as a reason why we're still hoping that Arroyo or Harang will be dealt and why Cordero won't be dealt. Everyone wants the Reds to make a deal but thanks to those contracts it's just not that easy. So, imo, yes that IS a problem.

No. The problem really isn't their contracts. It's the dreck they have been surrounded with, the complete mismanagement of the 25 man roster, and the horrendous development of some of the Reds stated top prospects.

The Reds regularly ran out sub .650 OPS players at 3 positions during the first three months. They had awful defense at 3B, sub par at SS every time AGon played, and quite possibly the worst position player of the last 20 years in CF.

Walt had a year to see the team's deficiencies going into the 2009 season and he didn't do squat.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 10:29 AM
TRF, you and I are talking about two different things. In the post you quoted I was talking only about the contracts being a hindrance in finding a buyer for Arroyo, Harang, and Cordero. Is that what you don't agree with?

As far as the problems this year, while you do make some good points, the bad contracts can't be dismissed, imo, as a contributing factor.

TRF
07-31-2009, 10:32 AM
TRF, you and I are talking about two different things. In the post you quoted I was talking only about the contracts being a hindrance in finding a buyer for Arroyo, Harang, and Cordero. Is that what you don't agree with?

As far as the problems this year, while you do make some good points, the bad contracts can't be dismissed, imo, as a contributing factor.

I don't think the contracts would be an issue at all if those players were complemented with a better supporting cast. The Reds wouldn't be looking for buyers, they'd be contending. That's the real FAIL, not that Krivsky gave Harang and Arroyo large contracts. Real teams have players with large contracts.

Strikes Out Looking
07-31-2009, 10:33 AM
What would have changed, the attitude in the clubhouse? Production from LF wasn't leading the league by any means, but it certainly was adequate the first 2-3 months of the season.

This is of course a discussion similar to what would have happened if Eleanor Roosevelt could fly, but I'll bite.

Assume we have player X in LF instead of Dickerson/Gomes/Nix, he hits righty and has a career track record of 25 hrs, 100 rbis and .280 average. First he could have bat 4th--lineup would be Votto/X/Bruce/Phillips. That would have extended the "dangerous" part of the lineup one batter. How many games did the Reds have a runner on third an not score? I would guess that you would cut that down by having player X in the lineup. I also think the Reds may have scored a run or two in the first three innings of a game--allowing them to not be down 2-0, 3-0 after 3 innings like they were much of the season.

I think pitchers who constantly pitch in games they are down 3-1, 2-0 pitch differently than when up or tied and it has affected the entire starting pitching staff.

I also think Bruce wouldn't have felt as much pressure and his numbers would have been better.

Again, this is all a guess, but I blame Walt and Bob for closing up shop last fall and not spending the extra few dollars it would have taken. We now see what the result of not doing it has been.

jojo
07-31-2009, 10:46 AM
Every GM has a million options. If no GM is going to take Harang or Arroyo's contracts and give you the prospects you want, then do something else. That's not the only move Jocketty can make.

This is so true that it hurts to navigate to another page.

M2
07-31-2009, 10:50 AM
But they are cashing large checks they largely don't deserve. Less than league average for both of them at more than $10 million per season. Sure, they eat innings and there's value in that, but it's not worth that scratch at all.

Every team is paying for multiple somebodies who are not earning their checks. It comes with the territory. In fact, all things considered, the Reds have it relatively good on that front.


Obvious pitfalls like the injuries to EdE, Phillips, Votto, Dickerson, Bruce, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Volquez, Owings et al? I know you plan on injuries to some extent, but whose season wouldn't be destroyed by these?

Phillips has played in 94 of 101 games. What injury?

Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Bruce, Hernandez, Owings - so what? Seriously. Not a single one of them is good enough to miss. The first two guys on that list shouldn't even have had jobs to start the season. And Owings just got injured. Hasn't officially missed a start yet. This club was in the toilet before his shoulder barked at him.

Votto and Volquez I'll grant you, but this team doesn't score nearly enough even when Votto's healthy and it wouldn't pitch nearly enough if Volquez was healthy either.

Dickerson's a 4th OF, ideally. Nice to have around, but he's not breaking anybody's back.

The Reds finished 13th in the NL in OB last season and 10th in SLG and anybody with an operational brain those numbers were likely to drop given who went out the door in August. The club did nothing to address those problems, just let them fester. If they're going to do dumb stuff like that there's little point in giving them money.


I think even the vaunted Red Sox would struggle were that to happen.

Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield have all been injured this season. That's 3/4 of the IF and 2/5 of the rotation. And, unlike most of the Reds, those guys are good.

J.D. Drew has also been (predictably) gimpy.

I(heart)Freel
07-31-2009, 10:53 AM
Every GM has a million options. If no GM is going to take Harang or Arroyo's contracts and give you the prospects you want, then do something else. That's not the only move Jocketty can make. If only he had relievers to sell at the deadline. Oh wait, he does. If only he had prospects. Oh wait, he does.

Does Arroyo become salable if you package him with Yonder Alonso?

You can play whack-a-mole with every idea that people around here drum up, but that doesn't change the main problem - the Reds have almost no ideas being put into action ... and you can't fund a lack of invention.

Unless you're an employee - and an inner circle employee at that - you have NO idea if the front office has "no ideas being put into action." None.

The cliche has to be said over and over again: it takes two to tango.

Walt and his team could be spinning their wheels 24/7 but that doesn't guarantee that some team wants what they're selling. Results are hardly the way to know if the FO is doing something. Sorry. But it's not.

bucksfan2
07-31-2009, 10:59 AM
I don't think the contracts would be an issue at all if those players were complemented with a better supporting cast. The Reds wouldn't be looking for buyers, they'd be contending. That's the real FAIL, not that Krivsky gave Harang and Arroyo large contracts. Real teams have players with large contracts.

The contracts are the issue. If they had been surround by a better supporting cast the the Reds would be buyers right now. Since they weren't surrounded by a better supporting cast they are sellers tying to sell contracts that even the Yanks want financial help.

guttle11
07-31-2009, 11:01 AM
Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Bruce, Hernandez, Owings - so what? Seriously. Not a single one of them is good enough to miss.

Absurd. They're better than the players brought in to replace them, therefore the team suffers.


Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield have all been injured this season.


And they're how many games back and fading?

Jpup
07-31-2009, 11:01 AM
The contracts are the issue. If they had been surround by a better supporting cast the the Reds would be buyers right now. Since they weren't surrounded by a better supporting cast they are sellers tying to sell contracts that even the Yanks want financial help.

That's not a good example since the Yankees also asked the Royals to pay what's left of Brian Bannister's 1.7 million dollar contract. It's not just the Reds players.

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 11:02 AM
Results are hardly the way to know if the FO is doing something. Sorry. But it's not.

But the proof is always in the pudding, freel. On that much, M2 is absolutely correct. Jocketty's not done what he should to improve this team. He's been largely inactive because he's not done anything to improve the team. It doesn't matter if he's tried or not.

All that matters is do.

M2
07-31-2009, 11:03 AM
Unless you're an employee - and an inner circle employee at that - you have NO idea if the front office has "no ideas being put into action." None.

The cliche has to be said over and over again: it takes two to tango.

Walt and his team could be spinning their wheels 24/7 but that doesn't guarantee that some team wants what they're selling. Results are hardly the way to know if the FO is doing something. Sorry. But it's not.

It's a do or die business and the Reds aren't doing.

All you're telling me is it's not easy, which is something I already knew.

Here's a list of all the players Walt Jocketty has acquired who profile as being of help in the coming years (e.g. the player doesn't need to radically improve in order to contribute):

Nick Masset

I don't care what angle you try to view the situation from or how much you squint, that's an awful showing for 15 months on the job.

M2
07-31-2009, 11:07 AM
Absurd. They're better than the players brought in to replace them, therefore the team suffers.

It suffers with them too. I work off the (apparently false) assumption that the idea was to field a good team in the first place. If so, better players should have replaced them before the season started.


And they're how many games back and fading?

2.5 games back, 4th best record in baseball. Things haven't been that dire for the Reds in a decade.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 11:07 AM
I don't think the contracts would be an issue at all if those players were complemented with a better supporting cast. The Reds wouldn't be looking for buyers, they'd be contending. That's the real FAIL, not that Krivsky gave Harang and Arroyo large contracts. Real teams have players with large contracts.
Teams that want to contend and have more than 40% of their payroll in only three players either sink or swim. It's a very, very risky way of building a team and it's not smart. People can say that IF this happened and IF that happened then those contracts wouldn't have mattered. Well if we HAD been able to contend we may not have been able to afford the missing piece that contenders trade for due to no flexibility in the payroll. Simply put, the problem isn't just with the talent on the team. The contracts given to the talent, not just recently but even over the last decade, have also been a problem and one that a team with payroll the size of the Reds CAN'T afford.

I(heart)Freel
07-31-2009, 11:12 AM
It's a do or die business and the Reds aren't doing.

All you're telling me is it's not easy, which is something I already knew.

Here's a list of all the players Walt Jocketty has acquired who profile as being of help in the coming years (e.g. the player doesn't need to radically improve in order to contribute):

Nick Masset

I don't care what angle you try to view the situation from or how much you squint, that's an awful showing for 15 months on the job.

You're combining your arguments... which given your frustration is understandable.

Complaining about Walt's roster construction and his offseason signings etc. are one thing. Completely warranted and justifiable.

But in your post that I replied to, you labeled them as unable to act at this deadline. To that, I again say you don't know what they're doing behind the scenes at all. Not making a trade doesn't mean that "no ideas were being put into action."

Separate your criticisms and I will tend to agree with you on one front. Not the other.

Scrap Irony
07-31-2009, 11:21 AM
Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield have all been injured this season. That's 3/4 of the IF and 2/5 of the rotation. And, unlike most of the Reds, those guys are good.

J.D. Drew has also been (predictably) gimpy.

Not to sidetrack the discussion, but that's chicken feed based on Cincinnati's injuries. Six offensive starters have missed/ will miss a month or more of the season. 1/6th of the season. Another starter (Phillips) broke his thumb early and hasn't been healthy since.

And, while they're not great, they are better than other options. It hurts the Reds more, IMO, to lose 800 OPS Encarnacion and replace that with 600 OPS Rosales and company. Cincinnati lost its best offensive player for 20+ games, then three of their next four best hitters. Only Youkilis and Drew on that Red Sox list are among Boston's best five.

It would be akin to the Sox losing not just Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, and Jed Lowrie, but Drew and Varitek as well.

No team can survive that.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 11:31 AM
Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield have all been injured this season. That's 3/4 of the IF and 2/5 of the rotation. And, unlike most of the Reds, those guys are good.

J.D. Drew has also been (predictably) gimpy.

Youk has 373 pa, Votto 286.
Lowell has 320 pa, EE only has 165
"gimpy" Drew has 366 pa, Bruce 333
Wakefield has 108.2 ip in a little more than half a season

and two of their best offensive players (Bay/Ortiz) have missed a total of only 9 games between them.

I'm not saying the Sox haven't had problems. Just that their problems weren't as nearly as bad as the Reds this year.

M2
07-31-2009, 11:32 AM
You're combining your arguments... which given your frustration is understandable.

Complaining about Walt's roster construction and his offseason signings etc. are one thing. Completely warranted and justifiable.

But in your post that I replied to, you labeled them as unable to act at this deadline. To that, I again say you don't know what they're doing behind the scenes at all. Not making a trade doesn't mean that "no ideas were being put into action."

Separate your criticisms and I will tend to agree with you on one front. Not the other.

I'm not the least bit frustrated. For me the Reds are an intellectual exercise and nothing more. I'm well past having any emotional attachment to the team.

It doesn't get more straightforward than the statement "the Reds have almost no ideas being put into action." Either they don't have the ideas or they aren't executing. Doesn't really matter as it all comes out the same in the wash. Great ideas that go nowhere are as useless as bad ideas that go everywhere.

I didn't even vaguely say anything about limiting my comments to only this deadline and if you inserted that assumption that was a mistake. In fact, I'm pretty clearly stating that shearing away contract space so that a front office that's delivered nothing in 15 months can reinvest is an exceptionally shaky prospect. It basically relies on the front office secretly having its priorities in order and knowing what needs to be done to put the club in working order. From the outside there's been zero indication that sort of leadership is in place.

I've got a ton of respect for what Jocketty did in St. Louis, but he looks overwhelmed in this job.

Kc61
07-31-2009, 11:43 AM
Teams that want to contend and have more than 40% of their payroll in only three players either sink or swim. It's a very, very risky way of building a team and it's not smart. The contracts given to the talent, not just recently but even over the last decade, have also been a problem and one that a team with payroll the size of the Reds CAN'T afford.

The problem is not the contracts. The problem is the payroll.

You can't be good without having some big time players who earn money. In the Reds case, Cordero has panned out. Harang and Arroyo have faded, but that's only two contracts. Other teams would move them to the back of the rotation and fill in with new guys.

Building with unproven kids and "reasonably paid" players leads to an endless cycle of losing, unless you get very lucky.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 11:46 AM
The problem is not the contracts. The problem is the payroll.

You can't be good without having some big time players who earn money. In the Reds case, Cordero has panned out. Harang and Arroyo have faded, but that's only two contracts. Other teams would move them to the back of the rotation and fill in with new guys.

Building with unproven kids and "reasonably paid" players leads to an endless cycle of losing, unless you get very lucky.
No, the problem is both. Just because Cordero has been productive doesn't mean he's worth his contract. And you can dismiss Harang and Arroyo as "only two contracts" but when those two contracts are almost 1/3 of the payroll....

I(heart)Freel
07-31-2009, 11:47 AM
I'm not the least bit frustrated. For me the Reds are an intellectual exercise and nothing more. I'm well past having any emotional attachment to the team.

It doesn't get more straightforward than the statement "the Reds have almost no ideas being put into action." Either they don't have the ideas or they aren't executing. Doesn't really matter as it all comes out the same in the wash. Great ideas that go nowhere are as useless as bad ideas that go everywhere.

I didn't even vaguely say anything about limiting my comments to only this deadline and if you inserted that assumption that was a mistake. In fact, I'm pretty clearly stating that shearing away contract space so that a front office that's delivered nothing in 15 months can reinvest is an exceptionally shaky prospect. It basically relies on the front office secretly having its priorities in order and knowing what needs to be done to put the club in working order. From the outside there's been zero indication that sort of leadership is in place.

I've got a ton of respect for what Jocketty did in St. Louis, but he looks overwhelmed in this job.



Sorry. I was mistakenly taking this comment of yours about trading Weathers, Rhodes or prospects to mean you were talking about this trading deadline.




Every GM has a million options. If no GM is going to take Harang or Arroyo's contracts and give you the prospects you want, then do something else. That's not the only move Jocketty can make. If only he had relievers to sell at the deadline. Oh wait, he does. If only he had prospects. Oh wait, he does.

Does Arroyo become salable if you package him with Yonder Alonso?

You can play whack-a-mole with every idea that people around here drum up, but that doesn't change the main problem - the Reds have almost no ideas being put into action ... and you can't fund a lack of invention.

M2
07-31-2009, 11:49 AM
Not to sidetrack the discussion, but that's chicken feed based on Cincinnati's injuries. Six offensive starters have missed/ will miss a month or more of the season. 1/6th of the season. Another starter (Phillips) broke his thumb early and hasn't been healthy since.

And, while they're not great, they are better than other options. It hurts the Reds more, IMO, to lose 800 OPS Encarnacion and replace that with 600 OPS Rosales and company. Cincinnati lost its best offensive player for 20+ games, then three of their next four best hitters. Only Youkilis and Drew on that Red Sox list are among Boston's best five.

It would be akin to the Sox losing not just Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, and Jed Lowrie, but Drew and Varitek as well.

No team can survive that.

The Reds can't survive having those players healthy and that's the real problem.

So the Reds are a bad team that gets even worse when it suffers injuries. Sure. However, good teams, like the mighty Red Sox, do get injuries (to actual good players even) and survive them.

Seriously, if the Reds front office is under the impression that the team would be more or less fine except for the injuries then it's pretty much going to be incapable of fixing this mess.

blumj
07-31-2009, 11:50 AM
Youk has 373 pa, Votto 286.
Lowell has 320 pa, EE only has 165
"gimpy" Drew has 366 pa, Bruce 333
Wakefield has 108.2 ip in a little more than half a season

and two of their best offensive players (Bay/Ortiz) have missed a total of only 9 games between them.

I'm not saying the Sox haven't had problems. Just that their problems weren't as nearly as bad as the Reds this year.

Don't you guys find it a little strange that the Reds have prospects who've already reached AAA who they don't seem to consider ready enough to fill in when they have injuries to the major league team? The Red Sox never seem to hesitate to borrow their prospects from AAA vs. a AAAA type, sometimes even from AA.

M2
07-31-2009, 11:53 AM
Sorry. I was mistakenly taking this comment of yours about trading Weathers, Rhodes or prospects to mean you were talking about this trading deadline.

I suppose if all you read was that one post, you would come away with that impression. My apologies for any confusion that caused.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 11:56 AM
I don't know blumj, Penny and Smoltz haven't been that impressive but instead of replace one of them with Buchholz he only has 3 starts and has been in AAA almost the entire season.

Kc61
07-31-2009, 11:57 AM
No, the problem is both. Just because Cordero has been productive doesn't mean he's worth his contract. And you can dismiss Harang and Arroyo as "only two contracts" but when those two contracts are almost 1/3 of the payroll....

No. It's the overall payroll.

The only reason the "two contracts" are 1/3 of the payroll is because the payroll is only $60 million.

And Cordero is worth his contract. The Reds bullpen was dramatically worse before he came. They paid him what they needed to. It worked.

But just like when Griffey came, the Reds got one big time player and then stopped improving. It was fine to spend money on an asset, just keep at it. They did not.

The alternative is low budget players and unproven kids. You have to be willing to pay for success, it doesn't come free.

HokieRed
07-31-2009, 12:00 PM
No. It's the overall payroll.

The only reason the "two contracts" are 1/3 of the payroll is because the payroll is only $60 million.

And Cordero is worth his contract. The Reds bullpen was dramatically worse before he came. They paid him what they needed to. It worked.

But just like when Griffey came, the Reds got one big time player and then stopped improving. It was fine to spend money on an asset, just keep at it. They did not.

The alternative is low budget players and unproven kids. You have to be willing to pay for success, it doesn't come free.


Must never forget when adding in the overpriced the 6 million owed (with even an addition half mill to get out of it next year) to Gonzalez.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 12:11 PM
No. It's the overall payroll.

The only reason the "two contracts" are 1/3 of the payroll is because the payroll is only $60 million.

And Cordero is worth his contract. The Reds bullpen was dramatically worse before he came. They paid him what they needed to. It worked.

But just like when Griffey came, the Reds got one big time player and then stopped improving. It was fine to spend money on an asset, just keep at it. They did not.

The alternative is low budget players and unproven kids. You have to be willing to pay for success, it doesn't come free.
I don't agree Kc61. The payroll is roughly $73m. Add on another $10m and those contracts still take up alot of room. Unless you expect the Reds to bump the payroll up to around $100m. And it's kinda hard to see how Cordero is worth his contract when other, equally good or better, closers make less. Has he helped the bullpen? Sure. But that was a very steep price to pay. But if you think a player deserves to be the highest paid player on the club this year when he's on the field less than alot of the other players...

Fwiw, I thought getting Griffey was overrated. Great PR move though.

Kc61
07-31-2009, 12:12 PM
Must never forget when adding in the overpriced the 6 million owed (with even an addition half mill to get out of it next year) to Gonzalez.


Gonzo's contract was under $15 million over three years with a buy out. I think the 2009 salary was $5 plus million, of which over half has already been paid. So, including the buyout, the amount owed to Gonzo is probably a bit more than $3 million.

But Gonzalez is a good example of my problem with this team. I'd rather they had spent much more on Furcal a year later. Getting a "reasonably priced" free agent saved them a few dollars but didn't get them the highest caliber player.

The best approach for this team is to go with a combo of youth and big time guys. Cordero is one IMO. I think they felt Harang was one as well. Arroyo, more questionable.

But it will take spending on top kids and top free agents. Otherwise they will continue to be below average.

HokieRed
07-31-2009, 12:14 PM
Gonzo's contract was under $15 million over three years with a buy out. I think the 2009 salary was $5 plus million, of which over half has already been paid. So, including the buyout, the amount owed to Gonzo is probably a bit more than $3 million.

But Gonzalez is a good example of my problem with this team. I'd rather they had spent much more on Furcal a year later. Getting a "reasonably priced" free agent saved them a few dollars but didn't get them the highest caliber player.

The best approach for this team is to go with a combo of youth and big time guys. Cordero is one IMO. I think they felt Harang was one as well. Arroyo, more questionable.

But it will take spending on top kids and top free agents. Otherwise they will continue to be below average.

Agree entirely. I meant "owed" over this season plus buyout.

I(heart)Freel
07-31-2009, 12:21 PM
I suppose if all you read was that one post, you would come away with that impression. My apologies for any confusion that caused.

Cool. So we're agreed that if they don't make a deal today that it's not necessarily because the Reds FO isn't capable of ideas and planning? It could be that they have a plan and would've liked to make some moves but were unable to find a willing trading partner?

bucksfan2
07-31-2009, 12:30 PM
Cool. So we're agreed that if they don't make a deal today that it's not necessarily because the Reds FO isn't capable of ideas and planning? It could be that they have a plan and would've liked to make some moves but were unable to find a willing trading partner?

I think we are finding out that unless your name is Halladay the trade market is pretty underwhelming right now.

M2
07-31-2009, 12:34 PM
Cool. So we're agreed that if they don't make a deal today that it's not necessarily because the Reds FO isn't capable of ideas and planning? It could be that they have a plan and would've liked to make some moves but were unable to find a willing trading partner?

My perspective is that today doesn't matter anymore than yesterday or tomorrow.

The trade deadline for the Reds is about subtraction. Yet what the team needs is to add the right things. The inability to plan AND execute, for me, is a standing criticism until that occurs.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 01:06 PM
UZR/150 is not just errors, it's range and everything defense related too. For example, in today's game, EE made a bad throw in a DP attempt that pulled Phillips off the bag. That resulted in 4 more runs. Now UZR/150 would only count that as .8 of a run, but the point is that it counts every thing a fielder does on the field while playing defense.

So it's not just about the errors, it's everything that EE does that Rolen does better, and according to this metric, Rolen's defense is worth around 20 runs a season over EE's, and that has been consistent for years.

And it's only for one year, so who really cares about an aging vet. Rolen is not going to fall off the face of the earth next year and be Jerry Hairston. No one knows who is going do better next year, but it has been pretty well established that Rolen is far more advanced skill and talent wise than EE. I say the odds are even as to who has a better year.



I have to admit that I'm not well versed on fielding metrics. I think 20 runs over a season sounds like a lot, but for the sake of argument, I'll accept it.

So the difference defensively, over a full season between Encarnacion and Rolen, is 20 runs. Based on Rolen's history and the fact that he'll be 35 next opening day, I think I would expect him to miss 30% of the season to various injuries, etc. and that's being conservative, I think. So, the 20 runs saved now turns to 14 runs saved.

So 14 runs. Is it still worth the difference in their 2010 salaries of $6.25MM, especially for a franchise that already seems hamstrung by a large chunk of payroll tied to a few un-tradeable contracts?

If your answer is still yes, I point you to the comparison of the last two years in runs created (RC).

Encarnacion
2007: 80.6 RC, 5.98 RC/27
2008: 80.4 RC, 5.47 RC/27

Rolen
2007: 50.8 RC, 4.41 RC/27
2008: 62.1 RC, 5.31 RC/27

Encarnacion created, on average, 24 runs more per year than Rolen. If we can get hung up on the 14 or so runs Rolen saves on defense, the fact that Encarnacion produced 48 more runs (24 on average) in 2007 and 2008 should count as well. I think if you combine it all, it's a wash if anything, and this franchise can't afford to waste nearly 10% of it's payroll on little to no upgrade in total.

I agree, EE is horrendous at 3B. I'm of the opinion that he can only get better, but I have no problem moving Frazier or Sutton there and sticking EE in LF. the problem is that I'm not so sure he wouldn't be a worse defensive LF'er than the whipping boy of the past few years.

redsfan4445
07-31-2009, 02:30 PM
Cool. So we're agreed that if they don't make a deal today that it's not necessarily because the Reds FO isn't capable of ideas and planning? It could be that they have a plan and would've liked to make some moves but were unable to find a willing trading partner?

which means fans "this is your 2010 Reds team.. come out buy $1 hotdogs and get your bobble heads" :thumbdown