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LvJ
07-31-2009, 05:22 PM
I currently hate the Reds. Seriously. I am seriously considering another team and I know I am not alone. :(

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2009, 05:23 PM
0 out of 10.

F-

hippie07
07-31-2009, 05:24 PM
7 out of 10

i'm excited for a change ... be it right our wrong ... gives me reason to watch the reds some more.

BearcatShane
07-31-2009, 05:24 PM
I don't like the deal, but I will always and I mean always love the Reds. And I love Scott Rolen now. I bet I would of loved Zach Stewart though.

LvJ
07-31-2009, 05:27 PM
I don't know about you guys, but I'm getting drunk. Not a good day.

Eric_the_Red
07-31-2009, 05:29 PM
I'm going to wait until all the details are announced re: players, $$, etc.

Silly of me, I know.

Homer Bailey
07-31-2009, 05:29 PM
-10 out of 10.

redsfandan
07-31-2009, 05:31 PM
I'm going to wait until all the details are announced re: players, $$, etc.
Silly of me, I know.
Same here.

Joseph
07-31-2009, 05:31 PM
Yeah, gotta wait and see the official deal.

Mario-Rijo
07-31-2009, 05:34 PM
Atrocious, period!

And regardless how the prospects turn out who trades some of their most promising arms for an old/aging, beat up and expensive position player. Just a poor evaluator we have and the downfall of this franchise will eventually be Castellini's firing of the only guy who knows something about genuine talent (Krivsky). Jocketty obviously doesn't know what he is doing and once he steps down (he won't be likely ever be fired) Bavasi will follow.

thatcoolguy_22
07-31-2009, 05:35 PM
Horrible move. my worst birthday ever

Joseph
07-31-2009, 05:48 PM
Roenicke, Stewart and EE.....if thats so then I wouldn't call it even, but I would say I'm not bothered.

I've been around a while and learned a bit about the hype of AAA arms. Yeah they could develop, but Walt's traded away arms before both good and bad, we'll see.

Team Clark
07-31-2009, 05:51 PM
9 out of 10. Roenicke was a keeper. Glad to see someone who can actually play 3B, no matter their age. LOL

StillFunkyB
07-31-2009, 06:00 PM
You forgot an option for "meh"

So..

meh.

durl
07-31-2009, 06:01 PM
It doesn't make the Reds worse. :)

I'm fine with the trade. I'm hoping Rolen may change the dynamic of the team to some small degree.

edabbs44
07-31-2009, 06:01 PM
Went with even but I am slightly on the downside of even.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2009, 06:04 PM
A+++. The best deal I've ever seen. I'll be hoisting a beer in Scotty Rolen's honor tonight!

Az Red
07-31-2009, 06:07 PM
Done for leadership. Send a spark into the team.

7/10

M2
07-31-2009, 06:17 PM
Horrible move. my worst birthday ever

The Reds have signed Eric Milton and Willy Taveras on my birthday. You don't know birthday pain.

LincolnparkRed
07-31-2009, 06:19 PM
The Reds have signed Eric Milton and Willy Taveras on my birthday. You don't know birthday pain.

Glad mine is May they can't be too far gone by May 4th

kaldaniels
07-31-2009, 06:19 PM
I said earlier, I love the deal. I just wish the poll were a little more non-extreme. It seems the choices are essentially A++,C,F,F- and I don't care. Could we do a serious A,B,C,D,F poll...?

nate
07-31-2009, 06:24 PM
The Reds have signed Eric Milton and Willy Taveras on my birthday. You don't know birthday pain.

I don't want your birthday cake!

GAC
07-31-2009, 06:47 PM
A+++. The best deal I've ever seen. I'll be hoisting a beer in Scotty Rolen's honor tonight!

Me thinks you've been hoisting a few already Johnny. :p:

CarolinaRedleg
07-31-2009, 06:50 PM
I don't hate the deal.

Danny Serafini
07-31-2009, 06:54 PM
I just wish I knew what brb is.

Edskin
07-31-2009, 06:55 PM
There needs to be two other options:

1. I Don't Care

2. It Doesn't Matter

I would have chosen either/both of those.

Sorry to sound so cynical, but this is a total non-issue to me. We weren't going anywhere before the Rolen deal and I doubt we'll be going anywhere after the Rolen deal.

GAC
07-31-2009, 06:55 PM
Walt has said that the addition of Rolen will help us THIS YEAR and next. C'mon Walt! This year is a complete wash. And next year? Only if you decide to make further additions, and get Bob, and the other ownership group, to open the check book, because the "window" on Rolen is closing fast. ;)

Reds1
07-31-2009, 06:56 PM
2010 line up

Taverez/Dickerson
Brandon Phillips
Joey Votto
Scott Rolen
Jay Bruce
new SS
Dickerson/New LF
Hannigan
Pitcher

If everyone stays healthy and we get a SS and OF we will look much nicer from a defense and offensive stand point. Need to rework the bench and hope Volquez is back. Pitching should still be decent even if we have the same guys.

GOYA
07-31-2009, 06:57 PM
I just wish I knew what brb is.

Be Right Back

Not the worst deal ever but I'm not happy with it. There'd better be a ton of cash coming along with Rolen. Stewart was a hell of a prospect to throw in that deal.

GAC
07-31-2009, 06:59 PM
There needs to be two other options:

1. I Don't Care

2. It Doesn't Matter

I would have chosen either/both of those.

Sorry to sound so cynical, but this is a total non-issue to me. We weren't going anywhere before the Rolen deal and I doubt we'll be going anywhere after the Rolen deal.

I look at it this way. The 11M you're paying Rolen next year is 11M you don't have to go after some really impact players in positions where we had real needs. As much as I was skeptical of EE at 3B, it wasn't as pressing a problem as other key areas.

George Grande is probably over having a BBQ at Walt's right now.

And my gawd! Think of all the Rolen references and praise we're going to get out of GG now. :cool:

HumnHilghtFreel
07-31-2009, 07:01 PM
I absolutely will be rooting for the success of Scott Rolen here, but I don't like this deal. It doesn't make us a winner this year, and the guy's aging and injury prone, so next year is a big question mark as well.The addition of Stewart turned it really sour for me.

3/10

TheNext44
07-31-2009, 07:11 PM
The money, nearly $4M is huge. Basically that is half of the difference between EE and Rolen this year and next. Or another way to look at it, it means that the Reds only added around $2M to the budget this year, and around that next year.

Losing Stewart really hurt, but he's a reliever. It's not like the Reds have a dirth of those in the system. He is replaceable, no matter high his ceiling is. The Reds needed to add a real prospect, and I am just glad it's not Alosno, Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, or Soto. Stewart is next on the prospect depth chart, in my opinion, which is why it's tough. But that is the main reason to have depth in your system, so you can trade them for proven major league talent that you need.

Rolen is at minimum a 2 win improvement over EE. That and $4M is worth Roenicke and Stewart. But just barely.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2009, 07:13 PM
Pathetic trade. -100 out of 10.

M2
07-31-2009, 07:14 PM
I don't want your birthday cake!

Sparky Lyle comes over to my house, drops trou and sits in it.

D-Man
07-31-2009, 07:21 PM
The Reds have signed Eric Milton and Willy Taveras on my birthday. You don't know birthday pain.

Dude!!! We share the same b-day. Dec.28 rawkkks. [Other than for the Reds, of course.]

Superdude
07-31-2009, 07:25 PM
it's basically convinced me that 90% of the this board could GM better than that waste of space hack.

M2
07-31-2009, 07:29 PM
Dude!!! We share the same b-day. Dec.28 rawkkks. [Other than for the Reds, of course.]

Actually they signed on Dec. 27 (baseball-reference has the wrong date for Milton in its transactions list).

guttle11
07-31-2009, 07:31 PM
It's obviously the worst trade in my life since my mom switched from Fruit Roll-Ups to a banana for my after school snack in third grade.

In all reality the deal is fine. Reds get a good player, dump an overpriced player that no one (not even themselves) wanted, a middle reliever, and a maybe prospect, and are only on the hook for Rolen for a year. It's a gamble sure, but one worth taking. A safer gamble than trading a ML player for a prospect.

The love of Zach Stewart is comical, but par for the course around here. Funny thing is, with two bad starts for the Reds Zach Stewart would be a bust with many of the same people.

Consider me prospected out. I want legit ML players, and I'll give up prospects for them every day of the week. I hope Alonso tears it up early next year so he's a hot commodity. That's his biggest value to the Reds.

Highlifeman21
07-31-2009, 07:32 PM
The Reds have signed Eric Milton and Willy Taveras on my birthday. You don't know birthday pain.

Oh wow...

On a side note, is there anyway to make polls default to public rather than private?

Highlifeman21
07-31-2009, 07:37 PM
Pathetic trade. -100 out of 10.

Curious why you feel this way OBM?

EE finally got run out of town, and I had already made my peace that it was inevitable.

Stewart is a huge question mark, and it seems the darling of this trade in some fans eyes.

Roenicke is the guy I was actually upset to lose, given I think that either he or Bailey will make one Hell of a closer within the next 2 years.

But, ya gotta give something to get something. We upgraded our defense, probably upgraded our offense, and hopefully the Jays are picking up most of Rolen's contract.

If they aren't then I like this deal less, but I still like it regardless.

jojo
07-31-2009, 07:43 PM
Rolen is roughly projected to be a hitter capable of producing a wOBA of .340. EE is projected to be a hitter capable of a wOBA=.360. However, moving Rolen from the Rogers Center and the AL east should give him a boost so I'd conservatively bump him up to a wOBA of .350.

Rolen might be expected to get roughly 450 PAs in 2010 given age and injury history.

He's easily a dramatic upgrade over EE defensively (EE=-10, SR=+5 to +10).

So over 450 PA's Rolen would be expected to be 4 runs worse with the bat than EE but 15 to 20 runs better defensively suggesting Rolen is a 1 to 1.5 win upgrade over EE. Unfortunately, Rolen can't be counted on to give a full season or he'd be an even more dramatic upgrade.

Another way to look at is that EE has been a roughly major league average player regarding value over the full season (roughly 2 to 2.5 wins). In the above scenario, Rolen would project to be a 2.7 to 3.2 win player over just 460 PA's.

Rolen is due $11M in 2010 and should be expected to be worth 3 wins.

EE is due $4.75M in 2010 and should be expected to be worth 2.25 wins if he was a Red (expect less as a Bluejay).

Rolen is better than EE but really, I'm not sure what he'll mean to the Reds chances in 2010. If Rolen could be counted on to play a full season, I'd be more excited.

Stormy
07-31-2009, 09:08 PM
.

Consider me prospected out. I want legit ML players, and I'll give up prospects for them every day of the week. I hope Alonso tears it up early next year so he's a hot commodity. That's his biggest value to the Reds.

Yes, but when an organization decides to move it's prospects for legit MLB players, it is beneficial to land someone who fits your needs. If Yunel Escobar is coming back in this deal, and the SS position is addressed for the present and the future, there probably isn't much to complain about. We've landed a fading veteran who doesn't fit our contention window, who has a high probability of being disabled for a significant portion of his tenure here, and who frankly hasn't produced consistently even when healthy over much of the past 5 years.

I'm all for shining up prospects and trading them for MLB talent everyday of the week, but this was a big overreach.

Orenda
07-31-2009, 09:12 PM
To me this signifies an organization that is spinning tires. Their higher authorities have zero imagination, creativity, or foresight. For a time it looked like they might have the patience to wait for players to develop but I guess they decided not to stick with that route and instead decided to bail out J.P. Ricciardi. On top of that they wait for the team to fall out of contention before making the deal. Good Luck RedsLand....Remember batting average, Homeruns, RBI's....oh and the Big Red Machine...and if you forget, go listen to George Grande.

11larkin11
07-31-2009, 09:15 PM
Ok, I've taken my anger out, and realized no matter how mad I get, this isn't going to change. So now I'm back to being my eternal optimist.

Rolen needs a nickname.

Grandpa Scotty?

Stormy
07-31-2009, 09:19 PM
To me this signifies an organization that is spinning tires. Their higher authorities have zero imagination, creativity, or foresight. For a time it looked like they might have the patience to wait for players to develop but I guess they decided not to stick with that route and instead decided to bail out J.P. Ricciardi. On top of that they wait for the team to fall out of contention before making the deal. Good Luck RedsLand....Remember batting average, Homeruns, RBI's....oh and the Big Red Machine...and if you forget, go listen to George Grande.

So far, Walt's big ideas have been the signing of the worst leadoff hitter in baseball, and now a rehash of a deal that worked for him 9 years ago. The lack of innovation is almost moribund. He waited far too long to trade EdE (last year at this time EdE was eclipsing Rolen's numbers), selling him at an all-time low. By the same token, he eventually caved to Toronto's demands 3 weeks after the timeframe in which the infusion of Rolen might actually have meant something to the 2009 club's fortunes.

A day late, a dollar short, and that's putting his tenure in it's most positive light.

Stormy
07-31-2009, 09:20 PM
Ok, I've taken my anger out, and realized no matter how mad I get, this isn't going to change. So now I'm back to being my eternal optimist.

Rolen needs a nickname.

Grandpa Scotty?

I liked Fat Elvis better, as we're definitely getting the guy we coveted a decade ago, in the Fat Elvis stage of his career.

mth123
07-31-2009, 09:20 PM
This deal opens 3b for Adam Rosales. With EdE gone and Rolen probably sidelined, Rosales will get his shot. For that we traded 2 good prospects who could have assumed late relief roles in next year's pen allowing for the departure of Mr. Cordero and Mr. Weathers, with them gone they could have simply taken Rolen's contract off the Jays hands if they wanted him that bad.

Stormy
07-31-2009, 09:49 PM
Just a quick side note about recent trends.

Since returning from his injury, EdE had a .901OPS in July. In roughly the same number of ABs, Rolen has a .761OPS in the month of July (pretty similar to his 2007 and 2008 numbers). I'm not an EdE supporter, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him out produce Rolen again next year, at a fraction of the cost.

SMcGavin
07-31-2009, 10:26 PM
On a side note, is there anyway to make polls default to public rather than private?

Seconded. I highly enjoyed the poll choices and was looking forward to seeing who was getting drunk with me tonight, then was greatly disappointed by the lack of public poll.

I voted meh, but getting drunk anyway. It's a stupid trade in the long-term but Bob has been saying he thinks the Reds are close, what did we expect? I haven't seen the Reds contend since I was in high school, now that this trade is done I half hope Jocketty mans up and trades some more prospects for guys to help in 2010. It would be a plan, probably a bad one, but better than the "half in half out" garbage we're used to.

This trade would make me a lot more upset if I thought the Reds FO was any good in the first place.

wolfboy
07-31-2009, 10:32 PM
Just a quick side note about recent trends.

Since returning from his injury, EdE had a .901OPS in July. In roughly the same number of ABs, Rolen has a .761OPS in the month of July (pretty similar to his 2007 and 2008 numbers). I'm not an EdE supporter, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him out produce Rolen again next year, at a fraction of the cost.

That's why I'm left scratching my head on this one. I just don't see this team competing in 2010. If that's the case, then why make this move?

Degenerate39
07-31-2009, 10:35 PM
I hate losing Stewart and Roenicke but I like getting rid of EE. I haven't made my mind up yet though.

TheNext44
07-31-2009, 11:00 PM
I think key that people are missing is that no team can compete with a defender as bad as EE playing third everyday. If he has the offense to offset his -10 rating then he deserves to be playing third. EE does not have that good of a bat.
So even though he has a 1.5 WAR; he really should have a negave one and should not be playing everyday.
That's why Rolen is such an big upgrade. He deserves to play everyday. The big question is can he?

wolfboy
07-31-2009, 11:08 PM
I think key that people are missing is that no team can compete with a defender as bad as EE playing third everyday. If he has the offense to offset his -10 rating then he deserves to be playing third. EE does not have that good of a bat.
So even though he has a 1.5 WAR; he really should have a negave one and should not be playing everyday.
That's why Rolen is such an big upgrade. He deserves to play everyday. The big question is can he?

What is "compete"? People act as though this team is on the cusp of a WS berth. They were a terrible team. They are still a terrible team.

jojo
07-31-2009, 11:16 PM
I think key that people are missing is that no team can compete with a defender as bad as EE playing third everyday. If he has the offense to offset his -10 rating then he deserves to be playing third. EE does not have that good of a bat.
So even though he has a 1.5 WAR; he really should have a negave one and should not be playing everyday.
That's why Rolen is such an big upgrade. He deserves to play everyday. The big question is can he?

I think "compete" is the key word....as in this is part of a bigger plan to become a legit factor for 2010. If Jocketty continues to address one or two other areas of need by at least making them average (but hopefully above average) then this trade makes alot of sense for 2010.

If not, well then the trade makes alot less sense and maybe it was just about trying to sell season tickets.

At this point, the optimist in me says give Jocketty the benefit of doubt and I'm hoping to see what he can do about a couple of unwanted contracts in August and what he might do this fall/winter.

That said, I love defense and look forward to seeing Rolen in a Reds uni regardless.

After Rolen, the Reds now are left with shortstop, centerfield, catcher, and perhaps leftfield and the rotation.

Lots of need, not alot of payroll cushion.

KronoRed
07-31-2009, 11:21 PM
There needs to be two other options:

1. I Don't Care

2. It Doesn't Matter

I would have chosen either/both of those.

Sorry to sound so cynical, but this is a total non-issue to me. We weren't going anywhere before the Rolen deal and I doubt we'll be going anywhere after the Rolen deal.

I'm with ED on this.

Still going in circles.

alexad
07-31-2009, 11:47 PM
I guess I am glad we did not trade away the core of this team. This team was decent before EE was sidelined, Votto was ill, AGone not playing, Phillips playing injured and dumb. Hernandez hurt, Hanigan hurt, Bruce getting hurt, Dickerson going down, Harang not pitching well, Arroyo not pitching well.

This is a bad season for injuries. Why trade away players who are playing well and want to be a part of this team. I think this sends out a message to this team, we are trying to keep in tact what we believe is a good core of players.

Josh R was going to be traded for DeLarosa, I did not think that would have been a good trade. Stewart has not been mentioned much if not at all as a pitcher the Reds wanted to bring up and pitch.

So why are we crying. Rolen wants to be a Red, he waived his no trade clause to come. That is saying something. We have one of if not the best bullpen in baseball. That has to say something.

I think the Reds have a ton of pitching talent in the minors. I do not believe we gave up the best pitching prospects to get this deal completed.

Just my thoughts. If there were no trades, there would be some sort of negative talk going on.

We will start to see some of the younger guys come up and see if they are ready to help out. I want to win and NOW would be great, but for the first time in awhile, I think this organization is heading in the right directions. Bob C. showed today he has not problem adding to the payroll. He wants to win and I think he will do whateve it takes to get it done.

Guys like Rolen wanting to play here can only bring other vets to the team in the FA offseason.

wolfboy
08-01-2009, 12:04 AM
Guys like Rolen wanting to play here can only bring other vets to the team in the FA offseason.

If you bring the Dusty, they will come... (Patterson, Bako, Hairston...)

kpresidente
08-01-2009, 02:50 AM
Jays fans love the trade...:(



We just turned a massively damaged asset having a miracle season into a young 3rd basemen, with equal parts warts and potential, along with a pair of pretty good arms. Turn back the clock 4 months, would you have done this deal in a heartbeat?


Im really liking this deal.

I dont know much about Encarnacion, and his stats look pretty awful, but this Zack Stewart looks pretty beastly

he has dominated every level he has been at, and has advanced to AAA in less than 2 years.
And Roenicke looks pretty solid in his limiyted MLB experience.


I love this trade. EE could very well be better then Rolen NEXT year. He might have been last season, defense considered. I could see Rolen limping his way through 100 games next season and his average dropping to his career norm and contuing not to hit for power.

But no, this trade wasn't even straight up. We got two very capable arms, and Stewart seems to have some potential.

On top of it all, we seemingly save about 5 million or so off next year's payroll. I think we fleeced the Reds in this one.


Such an eye opener. Rolen's great year has really made me forgotten what he's really like. It's was a GOOD trade by J.P. today.


"I think we fleeced the Reds in this one."

Agree with this statement totally. I didn't think Ricciardi had it in him. Rolen's value, during his tenure with the Jays, was at an all time high and they cash it in for 2 great young arms...Only thing I will miss is the funny TV commercial with Rolen driving up to the fast food drive thru and asking for the Fossil Fries :-)

TheNext44
08-01-2009, 02:58 AM
Jays fans love the trade...:(

Their Canadian. Enough said. :cool:

cincinnati chili
08-01-2009, 03:34 AM
I don't think Edwin's going to amount to anything, but I've been too out of touch with the prospects to have an intelligent opinion on them.

If Rolen has a '10 at the pace of his '09, then this trade is defensible.

I know that Rolen's contract was insured, but have no idea if that coverage extended to his final year. If so, then this may be a hedge for the Reds. Either he'll have a good year, or the Reds will get a good chunk of their money back.

The more paranoid side of me worries that Walt has lost his mind and will start collecting the 2004 cardinals a la Jimbo after the move to D.C.

Will Rolen be followed to the Queen City by Jason Isringhausen, Jeff Suppan, Marlon Anderson, and Edgar Renteria?

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 03:41 AM
Trading for Rolen made some sense IF we were going to compete in 2010. But if the latest reports on Volquez are true then 2010 is likely out. So they may have just made a trade that doesn't help us contend short or long-term.

kpresidente
08-01-2009, 03:56 AM
Their Canadian. Enough said. :cool:

Good point. I hadn't thought about that.

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 04:20 AM
Jays fans love the trade...:(Maybe they'll send a thank you card. Yippee.

Red in Chicago
08-01-2009, 09:56 AM
Just a quick side note about recent trends.

Since returning from his injury, EdE had a .901OPS in July. In roughly the same number of ABs, Rolen has a .761OPS in the month of July (pretty similar to his 2007 and 2008 numbers). I'm not an EdE supporter, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him out produce Rolen again next year, at a fraction of the cost.

While his OPS was .901 for the month, most of that was driven by a 7 for 7 two game stretch, which he won't likely see again. I'm glad he's gone.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2009, 12:29 PM
Someone just does not get it within the Reds organization. I am not sure I do either anymore. Trading younger to get older and more expensive, and the outcomes? it seems like we have been here before as fans of the chronic losing franchise.

Always Red
08-01-2009, 12:49 PM
Baseball Prospectus weighs in...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1357


August 1, 2009, 10:18 AM ET
The Worst Deadline Deal

by Rob McQuown

The Cincinnati Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion and 2 prospects to the Toronto Blue Jays for Scott Rolen.

I could probably end the post right there, and 99% of readers would understand and agree that this was not good business for the Cincinnati ballclub. Rolen’s having a good year, but …

a) Rolen has averaged just 106 games the past 4 seasons.
b) Rolen’s once-intimidating power has been largely extinguished by his injuries (27 HR in 07-09, just over 300 games).
c) Rolen’s BABIP this year is .347, against a career mark of .314, helping him get a career-high .320 AVG.
d) The Reds are no longer competing (realistically) for the playoffs in 2009.
e) Rolen will be 35 in 2010.
f) Rolen is due $15mil in 2010, plus the remainder of the 2009 $11mil salary. The Reds aren’t on the hook for all this money. St. Louis is reportedly still responsible for the $4mil bonus in 2010, and “undisclosed” cash went from Toronto to Cincy in the trade.

So, the first question is whether Rolen is worth the salary. The Reds seem likely to be on the hook for about $10mil for his 2010 season, plus his “getting acclimated” time in 2009. That hardly seems like a lot of money for a good third-baseman. What’s to like about Scott Rolen?

1) Rolen’s +/- scores at Bill James Online have all been +10 runs saved per season going back to 2004 (compared to an “average” MLB 3bman). Healthy in 2009, he’s on pace for another +20 season, the 3rd-best pace among all 3bmen. So, whatever impact the injury had on his bat, he’s still a force on defense.
2) Rolen’s top 3 PECOTA matches entering 2009 were: Lowell, Ripken, and Matt Williams. It seems safe to assume that his power isn’t going to miraculously return to the levels these guys sustained in their mid-30’s, but that’s some good company.
3) Rolen’s mid-season PECOTA update is a .296/.362/.495 batting line.
4) The NL has been playing weaker in recent years, in case you haven’t heard. :> There are examples and counterexamples, but all things the same, this should result in a slight “bump” to Rolen’s numbers.
5) Cincy’s park should help his power, what’s left of it.

It seems pretty safe at this point to assume that a team would happily pay Scott Rolen $10mil for a 1-year deal this offseason, given the opportunity. It’s a good contract, even with the expectations of missed playing time. Obviously, we don’t yet know the exact details, but +/- 10% shouldn’t change the fact that Rolen should be a good-value player for Cincy in 2010.
The cost to the Reds?

The appropriately initialed “E.E.”, Edwin Encarnacion, is - appropriately enough - an enigma. His fielding stats are as the negative of Rolen’s - consistently awful! He’s ranked 30th or worse in terms of extra runs allowed every full season he’s played, and is 30th again this year… with just 362.1 innings played! And +/- is a quantity stat, not a rate stat, so his current ratio of runs cost per innings afield is beyond the pale. Observers of him over time have to be perplexed, as he always showed the skill set and athletic ability indicative of at least average defensive play. But sometimes players just never get it.

The Jays have “Older”-bay at first base now, and he can’t hit lefties, and with Lind and Snider in the fold, his lefty bat isn’t as crucial to keep in the lineup… maybe EE moves to first base? Encarnacion seems like a talented hitter. He was a hot prospect, and has shown glimpses of an ability to hit for power, in between his injuries and fielding woes. His 75th Percentile PECOTA showed a .304 EqA before this year. If one’s to assume that he’ll be round .300 1 time in 3 (his 60th percentile was a still-robust .295), the Jays could have a .300 EqA hitter every third year at first base. Without a lot of additional optimism, it seems plausible that Encarnacion could also exceed those projections a little, and his fielding at the less-demanding position would become at least “average” with time.

Like Rolen, Encarnacion is signed through 2010. But, as expected, the salary is a lot more palatable to the Wells-suppressed Blue Jays budget. He’s making $2mil this year, and just $4.75mil in 2010. He appears to be on track to have little enough service time entering 2011 to allow the Jays one year of arbitration before he can opt for free agency in 2012. But by the last year of arbitration eligibility, that would probably only matter significantly if he was an MVP candidate in 2010.

So far, so good. The Reds got the better, more expensive player. He fits Dusty’s long-held belief in the importance of defense (unless a guy hits like Bonds, of course), which Jocketty also seemed to respect in St. Louis. The Jays got a cheaper player with “upside”.

Collective shrug.

Here’s the kicker: “and 2 prospects”. I’ll be the first to accept that minor-league relief stats have such a tiny correlation to MLB success as to need a microscope to find. And for the Reds to trade away three of their Louisville bullpen arms for a promising power bat (Wlad Balentien - is Jim Bowden secretly back with this organization?!) and an upgrade at a problem position seems to make sense. But these two guys going to Toronto are quite promising:

- Roenicke will be 27 in 3 days. He’s barely scratched the MLB roster. But he’s an uber-athletic player (walked on to the UCBL baseball team while there on a football scholarship), who throws as hard as you could want for a short reliever. Don’t be at all surprised to see him closing in Toronto in 2010, after being indoctrinated in their “Magical Pitching Program” (how do they do it?!) Stats-wise or scouting report-wise, there’s almost nothing to dislike about this guy’s chances. At this level of development, it’s not even fair to continue to call him a “prospect” - he’s a solid bullpen arm who still has more upside.

- Zach Stewart, just 22 and recently promoted to AAA, all accounts are that he’s a long-term reliever with 2 plus pitches (fastball/slider). But we’ve seen how the pitching wizards in the Toronto organization have converted relievers to starting; Stewart has always been a SP, so it seems likely they’ll try to keep him there. He can throw as hard as 96 MPH, with “good sink on his fastball” (BA Prospect Book), and while he’s likely not MLB-ready yet, this is exactly the sort of guy who has the chance to be a front-of-rotation starter, and a strong likelihood to be at least a decent 4th-starter or setup reliever.

We’ve all seen herds of pitching prospects fail. There’s a real chance that the Reds will look back and wonder why anyone doubted them, getting an upgrade at 3b for a few dollars more. But there’s also an outside chance that this will be looked upon as a disaster of Liriano/Nathan proportions. The final outcome is highly likely to be somewhere between, obviously. But with the current inflated market value of prospects - especially pitching prospects, who are always somewhat dicey - GM Walt Jocketty certainly undersold his assets. Badly.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2009, 01:11 PM
This will one of many articles in the next few days that will rip on this trade and rightfully so.

StillFunkyB
08-01-2009, 01:17 PM
Like others have said, this trade only makes sense if the Reds plan on spending some money this offseason.

I don't see it, and at this point it really makes no sense. I don't hate it, but I don't really like it either.

I don't mind the JHJ trade at all. I strongly disliked JHJ ever since that botched bunt attempt. Maybe I am wrong here, but a third generation major league ballplayer should be able to lay down a bunt, period.

Hoosier Red
08-01-2009, 01:22 PM
This will one of many articles in the next few days that will rip on this trade and rightfully so.

I read that ready for it to completely tear apart the Reds, but basically it said they overpaid. Which they did, but as Justin pointed out, it ends up the Reds lose out on value by roughly the cost of a Free Agent bench player.

So probably not a good path, but certainly not the worst thing in the world.

VR
08-01-2009, 01:50 PM
Don’t be at all surprised to see him closing in Toronto in 2010, after being indoctrinated in their “Magical Pitching Program” (how do they do it?!)

this is the acquisition the Reds should be looking to make. The organizational develpment has been a nightmare for years.....as evidenced by a pitching staff with <10% homegrown/developed talent.

Johnny Footstool
08-01-2009, 05:42 PM
Me thinks you've been hoisting a few already Johnny. :p:

Nah. I just got sick of the ridiculously negative hyperbole and decided to counter it with some equally ridiculous hyperbole of my own.

princeton
08-01-2009, 05:54 PM
I would never trade a player who suddenly jumps up several levels in ability and shows no obvious signs of slowing down. there are very few teams that will. oddly, the Reds seem to keep doing it (Josh Hamilton, Zach Stewart).

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2009, 09:43 PM
I won't say it's the worst trade ever, but it's definitely not a good one. Rolen is nearing the end of his career. His health is in serious question at this stage of his career. While he's having a solid year THIS season, his stats haven't been that good in recent years, so expect a pretty hefty drop-off.

I would've called this an even trade if it was Edwin & Roenicke...BARELY. Simply because of Roenicke's "unknown" factor. But even that deal favors the Jays. Tossing in Stewart is highway robbery IMO.

The money isn't my concern...it's the talent exchange. In that aspect...we got hosed.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2009, 09:52 PM
Losing Stewart really hurt, but he's a reliever. It's not like the Reds have a dirth of those in the system. He is replaceable, no matter high his ceiling is.

Ummm...I was under the impression that Stewart was a starter. He's only relieving now because of his yearly innings count. At least that's the way I understood it.

Stewart was our best righty starting prospect and Wood is our best lefty starter. I would've voted no on the trade if it was just EE & Roenicke for Rolen. EE and a lower level minor leaguer...sure. Rolen just isn't the same Rolen from the Cardinals anymore. Not even close. Just an aging player having a resurgence year.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2009, 10:00 PM
What is "compete"? People act as though this team is on the cusp of a WS berth. They were a terrible team. They are still a terrible team.

That I disagree with. This club was young and it started out cold. Then it was besieged by injuries. I don't think they were a playoff team even if healthy...but they were a ton closer than they've shown due to the unexpected struggles of Bruce & others and the injuries.

That being said...I still don't think Rolen adds enough to offset the losses we incurred in the deal. I hope I'm wrong, but his rapidly increasing pile of birthday cards doesn't lean towards the good side.

TheNext44
08-01-2009, 10:09 PM
Ummm...I was under the impression that Stewart was a starter. He's only relieving now because of his yearly innings count. At least that's the way I understood it.

Stewart was our best righty starting prospect and Wood is our best lefty starter. I would've voted no on the trade if it was just EE & Roenicke for Rolen. EE and a lower level minor leaguer...sure. Rolen just isn't the same Rolen from the Cardinals anymore. Not even close. Just an aging player having a resurgence year.

From what I read, Stewart is being groomed as a reliever and was starting this year to stretch his arm out, and develop all his pitches. Mariano Riveria did the same thing in his minor league career.

It makes no sense to use a good arm only in the bullpen in the minors, even if that is where he is destined. It makes it difficult to develop when you are pitching only one inning every few days.

I do think that the Reds were surprised at his success as a starter and think he might make a good #3-4 starter if need be, but he probably would be more valuable as a set up man or closer.

I am not an expert on the Reds minor league system, I am just going on what I have read on Doug site and here, so don't quote me on anything.

And concerning your other point about the money. With the Reds financial state the way it is, money is very important. $4M can be used to get a league average SS, which would be huge for the Reds if they can get one for next year.

TheNext44
08-01-2009, 10:17 PM
This will one of many articles in the next few days that will rip on this trade and rightfully so.

All of the articles assume that EE is an above average 3B, (and underplay the value of the money sent.) Statistically, in the abstract, that may be accurate. But we all know that no team can compete with EE as their starting 3B. His glove will kill you, no matter how good his bat is.

I think that EE will go the route of Brandon Larson and Willie Greene and fade away in the next few years. I have a feeling the Reds might be able to get him off of waivers in a year or two.

The Blue Jays know this, that is why they insisted on getting at least one real prospect out of the deal.

In my view, the trade was Rolen and $4M for Roenicke and Stewart, and I have feeling in year or two, that is how it will be judged.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2009, 10:17 PM
And concerning your other point about the money. With the Reds financial state the way it is, money is very important. $4M can be used to get a league average SS, which would be huge for the Reds if they can get one for next year.

Sure. 4 million could do that. But so could Bob upping the payroll by 4 million. Or by cutting some of the overpaid aging players who make 4 million who could be easily replaced by young players. There are tons of ways to free up that money (or to simply increase the payroll). So as I said, the money isn't what concerns me. The talent exchange is.

BoydsOfSummer
08-01-2009, 10:44 PM
I'm indifferent. That aint good.

tripleaaaron
08-01-2009, 10:47 PM
Nah. I just got sick of the ridiculously negative hyperbole and decided to counter it with some equally ridiculous hyperbole of my own.

While you may consider negativity towards this trade ridiculous and hyperbole as it is only one trade and for a potential hall of famer, it is more than that. The reds don't have the payroll or the necessary pieces to make this trade necessary. What we should be looking at is reinforcements for the youth movement (as everyone likes to contend the percentages of failed prospects, so acquire the talent to hash your bets) but instead we are just blocking a Todd Frazier or a Sutton etc from getting time to develop in what is destined to be a failed season. When you assess the projected roster for the second year of his contract (which will be very similar to this one) you will notice that our roster quickly adds up to 75 million giving us no room for further growth. With Volquez having the potential to miss all of next year we are left with several back end starters and two guys with terrific potential but serious questions as well.

Why not add more young talent, subtract payroll and look at adding in the pieces through free agency (which saw much better value on players than anyone signed pre 2009 and likely to continue for the foreseeable future). Instead of depleting talent adding payroll and hampering your flexibility and depth.

This is why its more to us, becuase it is much deeper than just one deal. It is more of the same ol reds. No patience, a lack of proper statistical analysis, no direction, no real plan. You must have a short term memory or are eternally optimistic or very religious. I however am a realist and this trade is one of many reds transactions that leave me scratching my head in bewilderment of how I can be so stupid to waste my time and emotion on the team. For many of us, this was the straw that broke the camels back of ineptitude. This is the breaking point. This has seriously detrimented my fanhood and it is much much more than EE, Stewart and Roenicke for Rolen.

mbgrayson
08-01-2009, 11:26 PM
I don't like this trade at all. Is it the Reds worst trade ever? Too soon to say, but it could be.

EE was hitting .276/.375/.526 for an OPS of .901 for the month of July, in 87 PAs. He has continued to develop his OBP skills, and he is one of very few on the Reds that had an OBP 100+ points over his average. I cite only July because he played hurt for the first part of the year, before he discovered that he had a wrist fracture.

EE's defense was certainly not good, and that is the only thing I like better about Rolen.
1. Our starting 3rd baseman is now 8 years older than before.
2. EE is a better hitter than Rolen right now.
3. Roenicke was a solid bullpen arm, and will be cheap for four more years.
4. Stewart had real promise, and he may be the one we most regret giving away. DUMB.
5. We just added to payroll significantly for no good reason.
6. Rolen is a much bigger injury risk than EE, and we could easily get almost no use out of him.

I am sorry folks, this just about seals it for me. Walt Jocketty needs to go. This is exactly the wrong kind of trade for us to make.

mbgrayson
08-01-2009, 11:30 PM
Baseball Prospectus on this deal:

Biggest Head-Scratcher

The Reds had slipped nine games behind the Cardinals heading into last night’s game, and with one of the game’s worst offenses backing a disappointing rotation, seemed like a seller. Then they completed a deal with the Blue Jays to acquire 34-year-old Scott Rolen and the last $15 million (less some undisclosed amount that the Jays are paying) left on an eight-year deal he signed before his body broke down. Rolen is having his best season in some time, and brings a strong glove; however the Reds can’t leverage his talent this year and are unlikely to in 2010, because they simply won’t be good enough. As I put it in chat, it’s as if Walt Jocketty thought, “Hey, the last time I traded for Scott Rolen, my team won the World Series a few years later.” It's a bad deal for a team that seems to not understand where it is in the success cycle.

westofyou
08-01-2009, 11:39 PM
Baseball Prospectus on this deal:

Actually one writers take, here's another from 7/29



Scott Rolen
While the Jays are busy shopping Halladay, Rolen has been relatively under the radar, though he has his suitors as well. The Reds have been very aggressive about their pursuit of Rolen, willing to take on the bulk of his salary and not be scared off by his back or shoulder problems. On the Toronto turf, Rolen has held up pretty well, though the loss of power seems permanent. The Indiana native would be close to home (again) in Cincinnati, and his numbers in 2009 are looking eerily similar to the ones in 2006 that helped the Cardinals to the World Series. Rolen has a tendency to fade that can be blamed on his injuries and his stubborn determination to play through them, but he's precisely the type of veteran player whom Dusty Baker excels with.


Selling papers they are

Will M
08-01-2009, 11:48 PM
In my view, the trade was Rolen and $4M for Roenicke and Stewart, and I have feeling in year or two, that is how it will be judged.

close.

the Jays also had to take EE with his $5M salary for 2010. his career OPS+ 100 bat will DH.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2009, 01:20 AM
While you may consider negativity towards this trade ridiculous and hyperbole as it is only one trade and for a potential hall of famer, it is more than that. The reds don't have the payroll or the necessary pieces to make this trade necessary. What we should be looking at is reinforcements for the youth movement (as everyone likes to contend the percentages of failed prospects, so acquire the talent to hash your bets) but instead we are just blocking a Todd Frazier or a Sutton etc from getting time to develop in what is destined to be a failed season. When you assess the projected roster for the second year of his contract (which will be very similar to this one) you will notice that our roster quickly adds up to 75 million giving us no room for further growth. With Volquez having the potential to miss all of next year we are left with several back end starters and two guys with terrific potential but serious questions as well.

Why not add more young talent, subtract payroll and look at adding in the pieces through free agency (which saw much better value on players than anyone signed pre 2009 and likely to continue for the foreseeable future). Instead of depleting talent adding payroll and hampering your flexibility and depth.

This is why its more to us, becuase it is much deeper than just one deal. It is more of the same ol reds. No patience, a lack of proper statistical analysis, no direction, no real plan. You must have a short term memory or are eternally optimistic or very religious. I however am a realist and this trade is one of many reds transactions that leave me scratching my head in bewilderment of how I can be so stupid to waste my time and emotion on the team. For many of us, this was the straw that broke the camels back of ineptitude. This is the breaking point. This has seriously detrimented my fanhood and it is much much more than EE, Stewart and Roenicke for Rolen.


^^^^^

Money. Well done.

TheNext44
08-02-2009, 01:48 AM
While you may consider negativity towards this trade ridiculous and hyperbole as it is only one trade and for a potential hall of famer, it is more than that. The reds don't have the payroll or the necessary pieces to make this trade necessary. What we should be looking at is reinforcements for the youth movement (as everyone likes to contend the percentages of failed prospects, so acquire the talent to hash your bets) but instead we are just blocking a Todd Frazier or a Sutton etc from getting time to develop in what is destined to be a failed season. When you assess the projected roster for the second year of his contract (which will be very similar to this one) you will notice that our roster quickly adds up to 75 million giving us no room for further growth. With Volquez having the potential to miss all of next year we are left with several back end starters and two guys with terrific potential but serious questions as well.

Why not add more young talent, subtract payroll and look at adding in the pieces through free agency (which saw much better value on players than anyone signed pre 2009 and likely to continue for the foreseeable future). Instead of depleting talent adding payroll and hampering your flexibility and depth.

This is why its more to us, becuase it is much deeper than just one deal. It is more of the same ol reds. No patience, a lack of proper statistical analysis, no direction, no real plan. You must have a short term memory or are eternally optimistic or very religious. I however am a realist and this trade is one of many reds transactions that leave me scratching my head in bewilderment of how I can be so stupid to waste my time and emotion on the team. For many of us, this was the straw that broke the camels back of ineptitude. This is the breaking point. This has seriously detrimented my fanhood and it is much much more than EE, Stewart and Roenicke for Rolen.

I have shown a few times that the Reds have $61M tied up in contracts for next year, and when you fill out the rest of the roster, the estimated payroll for next year is $69.5M.

That leaves $4M to spend assuming the payroll stays exactly the same as last year. If the Reds increase the payroll but the same amount they did from 08 to 09, 8%, then they would have around $8M.

But the truth is, we have no idea what the Reds finances are, or what their plans are for next year. It really is a fools folly to judge the Reds on what they can and can not, or will or will not do next year. We all are just guessing.

cincrazy
08-02-2009, 01:57 AM
I don't like this trade at all. Is it the Reds worst trade ever? Too soon to say, but it could be.

EE was hitting .276/.375/.526 for an OPS of .901 for the month of July, in 87 PAs. He has continued to develop his OBP skills, and he is one of very few on the Reds that had an OBP 100+ points over his average. I cite only July because he played hurt for the first part of the year, before he discovered that he had a wrist fracture.

EE's defense was certainly not good, and that is the only thing I like better about Rolen.
1. Our starting 3rd baseman is now 8 years older than before.
2. EE is a better hitter than Rolen right now.
3. Roenicke was a solid bullpen arm, and will be cheap for four more years.
4. Stewart had real promise, and he may be the one we most regret giving away. DUMB.
5. We just added to payroll significantly for no good reason.
6. Rolen is a much bigger injury risk than EE, and we could easily get almost no use out of him.

I am sorry folks, this just about seals it for me. Walt Jocketty needs to go. This is exactly the wrong kind of trade for us to make.

I mean, I'm not a HUGE fan of the trade. I'm going to wait to judge the impact of it. But to say this could be the Reds worst trade of all time... I mean come on now.

I could also take the standpoint and say this could be the Reds best trade of this decade. Is that likely? No. Is it hyperbole? Yes. But technically, could this be possible? I suppose.

So this COULD be the worst trade ever for the Reds. But more than likely, in the end, it's just going to be one more trade that didn't matter one way or the other.

This site spent a ton of time rehashing a trade that had no significance on either franchise back in 2006, and I wouldn't be surprised if two or three years down the road, this trade is more of the same.

Ron Madden
08-02-2009, 02:41 AM
I like Rolen and I don't mind trading EE but I still dislike this trade.

It' so .... Cincinnati like.

cincrazy
08-02-2009, 02:48 AM
I like Rolen and I don't mind trading EE but I still dislike this trade.

It' so .... Cincinnati like.

If by doing this trade, the Reds handicap their ability to get better in the offseason, I'll hate this trade.

But if this move is accompanied by further moves in the offseason, I'll be pleased.

So in other words I'll probably end up hating this trade in the end despite defending it around these parts the last few days.

corkedbat
08-02-2009, 02:58 AM
If by doing this trade, the Reds handicap their ability to get better in the offseason, I'll hate this trade.

But if this move is accompanied by further moves in the offseason, I'll be pleased.

So in other words I'll probably end up hating this trade in the end despite defending it around these parts the last few days.

At the very least, if this sorry trade had to be done, they should have delayed it until the oiffseason after other, better avenues had been explored. It would have been there in January or February, the Jays leverage would have been diminished and a meaningless two-months of injury exposure could have been avoided.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2009, 07:11 PM
Reds give Rolen royal treatment
By Hal McCoy, Staff Writer
9:13 PM Saturday, August 1, 2009

CINCINNATI — Scott Rolen was given the star treatment before he even set foot in the Cincinnati Reds clubhouse for the first time:

• Uniform No. 27 was peeled off the back of rookie Drew Sutton and given to Rolen (his preferred number), and when Sutton walked into the clubhouse and saw No. 15 hanging in his locker, he said, “Look, a new number.”

• Jay Bruce lost his star-status dressing area, a two-stall cubicle in prime location, an area first occupied by Barry Larkin.

“We’ve got the big guy here, so I’ve gotta move it on over,” said Bruce. “Hey, I don’t mind. He’s an All-Star and a Gold Glover, so he deserves that locker. He has a lot more credentials than me.”

Instead of conducting his first interview at that locker, Rolen sat in the dugout and talked for the first time to the media.

Asked if he liked hitting in Great American Ball Park, Rolen smiled broadly and said, “I love hitting here. Has anybody ever say they don’t? I’ve faced Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, so I know we have great pitching and I won’t have to face Aaron Harang, against who I’m about 1 for 106.”

Rolen pushed for the trade because he wants to finish his career near home, Jasper, Ind. Asked how far it is, he said, “Depends upon who’s driving. About 2 ½ hours.”

And he added, “I’m thrilled to be here because this is about as close to home as I can be. My parents brought me here to watch ballgames.”

Rolen, ostensibly, was brought in to display leadership and provide some fire to a dormant team.

“That’s a tough one to tackle,” he said. “I just got here and put on the uniform. I’ll compete as best as I can. As professional ballplayers we have a responsibility and accountability to be professionals on and off the field. I’ll go about my business to be the best I can be.

“I’m not a screamer or a yeller and if I turn into that it is not genuine,” he added. “If you are genuine, you earn respect and gain respect.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/cincinnati-reds/reds-give-rolen-royal-treatment-231894.html

LvJ
08-02-2009, 07:13 PM
15% of the Reds 2010 payroll :bowrofl:


Ugh.

flyer85
08-02-2009, 07:19 PM
But with the current inflated market value of prospects - especially pitching prospects, who are always somewhat dicey - GM Walt Jocketty certainly undersold his assets. Badly.which is the same point on Friday. it doesn't matter if prospects are overvalued ... that's the current market. Walt got less for his assets than everyone else.

IMO the way it played out was JP set his price and waited. Walt panicked and caved. My bet is that JP would have been forced to unload salary in the off-season and Rolen could have been had for a lot less ... we'll never know the answer. Seeing as the Reds aren't competing now why not til the offseason, see what is available. The only reason to rush and make the deal now was if the Reds were trying to win in 2009.

RedsManRick
08-02-2009, 07:21 PM
Rolen strikes me as a Votto type, temperamentally speaking -- quiet on the surface but boiling underneath. I'm sure he'll have some extra cache' because of his experience, but if people want vocal leadership, I doubt you're going to get it out of a guy brought over in a mid-season trade. It's a shame we didn't land him back when he was being chased out of Philly -- I know Bowden had something in place and it was vetoed. Rolen would have been a great fit for the teams in the early 2000, both in his defense and as a foil to Junior -- a fire and ice sort of thing.

Caveat Emperor
08-02-2009, 07:25 PM
IMO the way it played out was JP set his price and waited. Walt panicked and caved.

Of course, it could always be that Walt was completely cool with JP's price and tried to wait him out to see if his hand got forced by ownership looking to unload salary. When he didn't flinch, Walt made the deal he had been comfortable with from the very start.

That's an equally likely explanation, IMO.

flyer85
08-02-2009, 07:34 PM
Of course, it could always be that Walt was completely cool with JP's price and tried to wait him out to see if his hand got forced by ownership looking to unload salary. When he didn't flinch, Walt made the deal he had been comfortable with from the very start.

That's an equally likely explanation, IMO.which really doesn't matter. Walt is unlikely to get anywhere undervaluing his assets because this team has miles to go.

Caveat Emperor
08-02-2009, 07:51 PM
which really doesn't matter. Walt is unlikely to get anywhere undervaluing his assets because this team has miles to go.

That's if he undervalued his assets.

Haven't we been on the receiving end of enough of these "great" and "top-10 in their system" pitching prospects in trades to know that you're rarely getting someone who is as-advertised?

Stewart might be great. He might also be Travis Chick.

Benihana
08-02-2009, 08:10 PM
I was pretty disgusted with the trade. My guess is the Jays use Stewart as a reliever. The only way this trade works out for the Reds is if they make another "big" acquisition in the offseason, be it Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Holliday, or someone comparable. If they can unload Harang or Arroyo they might be able to do that, although they MUST get a TOR pitcher for next year, especially now with EV in jeopardy.

I think Cast was impatient, tired of spinning wheels and pressured Walt to do something. The problem is that no Walt is really in a tight spot, in that they are screwed if he cannot come up with another big name acquisition in the offseason, which of course can't be done financially unless they shed Harang or Arroyo.

If Walt is able to pull all of that off and bring in a Webb or a Lackey, then this deal could conceivably work out- even if Stewart pans out (although like I said, I bet Toronto uses him as a reliever.)

If he can't, this trade gets an F, and I was in favor of moving prospects in the right deal. Don't forget we sold EE at an all-time low.

TheNext44
08-02-2009, 08:17 PM
I was pretty disgusted with the trade. My guess is the Jays use Stewart as a reliever. The only way this trade works out for the Reds is if they make another "big" acquisition in the offseason, be it Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Matt Holliday, or someone comparable. If they can unload Harang or Arroyo they might be able to do that, although they MUST get a TOR pitcher for next year, especially now with EV in jeopardy.

I think Cast was impatient, tired of spinning wheels and pressured Walt to do something. The problem is that no Walt is really in a tight spot, in that they are screwed if he cannot come up with another big name acquisition in the offseason, which of course can't be done financially unless they shed Harang or Arroyo.

If Walt is able to pull all of that off and bring in a Webb or a Lackey, then this deal could conceivably work out- even if Stewart pans out (although like I said, I bet Toronto uses him as a reliever.)

If he can't, this trade gets an F, and I was in favor of moving prospects in the right deal. Don't forget we sold EE at an all-time low.

Wait till next year. We'll probably be able to get him off of waivers when the Jay's non-tender him.

Caveat Emperor
08-02-2009, 11:42 PM
Don't forget we sold EE at an all-time low.

On the other hand, we got something for him. Can't say the same for Brandon Larson and Pokey Reese -- we sold them when there was nothing (or next to nothing) left to get because we held onto them too long.

Better to sell too early than too late. Sell too early, you get Scott Rolen. Sell too late, you get Luke Hudson.

Will M
08-03-2009, 01:10 AM
Wait till next year. We'll probably be able to get him off of waivers when the Jay's non-tender him.

they can't. he has a guaranteed 2010 contract for ~$5M.

Johnny Footstool
08-03-2009, 01:18 AM
While you may consider negativity towards this trade ridiculous and hyperbole as it is only one trade and for a potential hall of famer, it is more than that. The reds don't have the payroll or the necessary pieces to make this trade necessary. What we should be looking at is reinforcements for the youth movement (as everyone likes to contend the percentages of failed prospects, so acquire the talent to hash your bets) but instead we are just blocking a Todd Frazier or a Sutton etc from getting time to develop in what is destined to be a failed season. When you assess the projected roster for the second year of his contract (which will be very similar to this one) you will notice that our roster quickly adds up to 75 million giving us no room for further growth. With Volquez having the potential to miss all of next year we are left with several back end starters and two guys with terrific potential but serious questions as well.

Why not add more young talent, subtract payroll and look at adding in the pieces through free agency (which saw much better value on players than anyone signed pre 2009 and likely to continue for the foreseeable future). Instead of depleting talent adding payroll and hampering your flexibility and depth.

This is why its more to us, becuase it is much deeper than just one deal. It is more of the same ol reds. No patience, a lack of proper statistical analysis, no direction, no real plan. You must have a short term memory or are eternally optimistic or very religious. I however am a realist and this trade is one of many reds transactions that leave me scratching my head in bewilderment of how I can be so stupid to waste my time and emotion on the team. For many of us, this was the straw that broke the camels back of ineptitude. This is the breaking point. This has seriously detrimented my fanhood and it is much much more than EE, Stewart and Roenicke for Rolen.

You stuck with the Reds after the Kearns/Lopez trade, which was miles worse than this. You'll stick with the Reds beyond this.

corkedbat
08-03-2009, 01:29 AM
If you had to deal a prospect like Stewart, use him as a piece in a deal for a SS - something this club actually needs and might be here when it means something.

This team still is a big LF bat and a TOR from even pretending, much less contending, Can't see that happening this offseason and with Ednison shelved, even that might not be enough. I doubt we see any big signings this winter - other than Rolen's extension and picking up Agon's option of course.

TheNext44
08-03-2009, 02:36 AM
they can't. he has a guaranteed 2010 contract for ~$5M.

Sorry, I meant after the 2010 season. They will have to offer him a contract of at least $3.8M, or non-tender him. Unless he improves, they most likely will non-tender him then.