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dougdirt
08-01-2009, 03:09 AM
As of right now the Reds have $66,500,000 tied up in Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Phillips, Taveras, Lincoln, Rhodes, Hernandez ($1M buyout if they don't take his option) and Weathers (if they pick up his $3.7M option for 2010... given that they are paying him 3.5 this year, I bet they pick it up). Lets assume those guys are on the roster next year, here is what we are looking like:

Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang

Relief Pitchers
Francisco Cordero
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln

Infielders
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen

Outfielders
Willy Taveras

That is 9 players taking up about all of our current payroll thats estimated to be in the 70-75 million limit.

Lets assume these guys will also be on the pitching roster for sure: Cueto, Owings, Volquez, Bailey, Masset, Herrera. Lets just round their numbers off at $500,000 each. Thats $3M. We are now at $69.5M in payroll.

Lets assume these position players will be on our roster for sure: Votto, Bruce, Dickerson and Hanigan. Lets call it $500,000 each for them as well. Now we are sitting at $71.5M for this roster:

Starting Pitchers
Edinson Volquez
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey

Bullpen
David Weathers
Francisco Cordero
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Micah Owings
Nick Masset
Danny Herrera

Infielders
Ryan Hanigan
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen

Outfielders
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Willy Taveras

So we need to fill a starting shortstop and an entire bench with about 0 to 3 million dollars unless Bob is going to increase the payroll. Unless the Reds go with something like Cozart at SS and a bench made up of Sutton, Rosales, Stubbs, Heisey and Tatum its going to be really tough to keep this team at a budget of $70-75M next year without some other move coming where we dump salary. It also means that we shouldn't even expect a splash of the Willy Taveras proportion this offseason because the money just isn't there.

WMR
08-01-2009, 03:11 AM
I posted in the Rolen thread that I don't see how the Reds can make the corresponding moves that would make this Rolen move make sense without upping the payroll to at least 85-90 million.

You gotta at least move Arroyo, even if it means eating some salary to get it done.

corkedbat
08-01-2009, 03:19 AM
I posted in the Rolen thread that I don't see how the Reds can make the corresponding moves that would make this Rolen move make sense without upping the payroll to at least 85-90 million.

You gotta at least move Arroyo, even if it means eating some salary to get it done.

Harang and Arroyo have to go.

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 03:32 AM
We'd have a chance if they dealt Arroyo or Harang and boosted the payroll even just up to $80m. But that was if we could count on a healthy Volquez and now that doesn't look likely. :(

schroomytunes
08-01-2009, 03:34 AM
I think this move is totally for 2010! our infield is now set except for a SS, I see it as:

Votto,Phillips,FA,Rolen,and Hanigan! we will pick up a backup Catcher and an adequate SS to fill in the holes, guys I like are:

SS) Scutero, Everett, Cabrera
C) Kendall, Schineder(sp?), Castro
---these guys can be had for peanuts in FA

we need a corner OF badly!!!! this allows us to focus on that, as well as maybe snagging a #3/4 type starter in the rotation if we can move Harang/Arroyo, IMO Harang should be the guy to go!

SP-Volquez, Cueto, Bailey,Owings,Arroyo, me...Looper!!! he's ok if used as that type of guy!!!

My FA's to target:

SS: Everett
LF: Ankiel
C: Kendall
SP: Looper

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 03:37 AM
Unfortunately, it looks like you'll have to take Volquez out of the equation. And that really hurts.

Brutus
08-01-2009, 03:43 AM
I expect Weathers will be traded and I still won't be surprised if Arroyo or Harang get jettisoned in August, as either would pass through waivers, probably. Either way, I do not believe they will pick up Weathers' option. I'll be surprised if they do, in fact.

Clearly though, there won't be a lot of salary wiggle room at the present budget unless the Reds work miracles and find trade partners of someone wanting Wily Taveras or Mike Lincoln (ha!).

dougdirt
08-01-2009, 03:55 AM
I expect Weathers will be traded and I still won't be surprised if Arroyo or Harang get jettisoned in August, as either would pass through waivers, probably. Either way, I do not believe they will pick up Weathers' option. I'll be surprised if they do, in fact.

Clearly though, there won't be a lot of salary wiggle room at the present budget unless the Reds work miracles and find trade partners of someone wanting Wily Taveras or Mike Lincoln (ha!).

The Reds are going to eat $1.5M in not picking up the options on Gonzalez and Hernandez. I doubt they make it a cool $2M by not giving Weathers a $200,000 raise if he continues his ERA around the 3 to 3.50 mark.

Brutus
08-01-2009, 04:01 AM
The Reds are going to eat $1.5M in not picking up the options on Gonzalez and Hernandez. I doubt they make it a cool $2M by not giving Weathers a $200,000 raise if he continues his ERA around the 3 to 3.50 mark.

I have heard from several folks that the Reds continue to try to get takers on Weathers as is. I sincerely doubt they would want to try and trade a guy, fail, then turn around and keep a $3.5 mil option when they probably think they can find a replacement reliever for half the price. Maybe you'll be right, but I still think he gets traded and if not, I don't expect them to pick up the option. That's my gut.

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 04:02 AM
Ya know, I really do appreciate what Weathers has done for the Reds over the last 4 1/2 seasons but if we have $20m+ tied up in the bullpen in 2010 ... :bang::bang::bang::explode::explode::explode:

dougdirt
08-01-2009, 04:09 AM
I have heard from several folks that the Reds continue to try to get takers on Weathers as is. I sincerely doubt they would want to try and trade a guy, fail, then turn around and keep a $3.5 mil option when they probably think they can find a replacement reliever for half the price. Maybe you'll be right, but I still think he gets traded and if not, I don't expect them to pick up the option. That's my gut.

Either way, that still leaves the Reds trying to fill 6 or 7 spots, including a starting SS with about 3-5 Million dollars. It doesn't look good.

Brutus
08-01-2009, 04:13 AM
Either way, that still leaves the Reds trying to fill 6 or 7 spots, including a starting SS with about 3-5 Million dollars. It doesn't look good.

No disagreements there. But if they can find takers on Arroyo and/or Harang...

Things would look a lot better.

dougdirt
08-01-2009, 04:24 AM
No disagreements there. But if they can find takers on Arroyo and/or Harang...

Things would look a lot better.
I don't know if they would look a lot better, but they would look somewhat better. The problem is, they aren't going to find any takers because Bob won't eat the money to make it happen. Rumor was Jocketty had both guys moved but Bob wasn't going to eat some money to make it happen. I hope I am wrong and at least one gets moved, but I won't be holding my breath.

TheNext44
08-01-2009, 04:28 AM
No way they pick up Hernandez, really doubtful with Weathers. He is either not picked up, or traded before the end of the year. Technically he would be worth the option if he pitched the same as this year, but I think they know that he can be replaced with a youngster, and that he is not likely to repeat this year. This will be especially true if he continues to pitch like he has lately and he ERA creeps closer to 4.00 or higher.

And you are not subtracting the money received in the Rolen deal and the money saved with the Hairston deal. That combined with the extra money that Rolen makes this year, nets the Reds an extra $1.5M. The buyouts, bonuses and Alonso's salary equal $2.5M, so with that extra $1.5M, the "extras" add an additional $1M.

Here's a more accurate look at what the Reds payroll will look like next year.


Cordero 12
Harang 12.5
Arroyo 11
Philips 6.75
Rolen 11
Taveras 4
Rhodes 2
Lincoln 2.5
Bruce 0.4
Votto 0.4
Janish 0.4
Volquez 0.4
Cueto 0.4
Bailey 0.4
Owings 0.4
Herrera 0.4
Fisher 0.4
Gomes 0.4
Nix 0.4
Roenicke 0.4
Masset 0.4
Dickerson 0.4
Rosales 0.4
Sutton 0.4
Balentien 0.4
extras 1
Total 69.5


2008 Payroll $72.5M

So assuming the Reds don't bump payroll, the Reds can add around $3M to the payroll next year. If there is a 10% increase to $80M, that leaves around $10M to spend. Still not enough to fill the holes, but a slightly rosier picture than $1-3M.

To me it looks like either raising payroll to $85M or trading one of the big three, Harang, Arroyo or Cordero, if possible. I think one of those two options will be accomplished by next season.

Mario-Rijo
08-01-2009, 04:32 AM
Where do we go from here?

Somewhere the big bad Ricciardi can't reach us.

http://mizusawa-t.img.jugem.jp/20070227_286241.jpg

KronoRed
08-01-2009, 05:00 AM
Time for the Reds to buy some powerball tickets.

Playadlc
08-01-2009, 05:44 AM
The Reds need to seriously think about moving Owings to the OF.

Raisor
08-01-2009, 06:49 AM
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Where do we go from here?
Where do we go from here?
The battle's done, and we kind of won,
So we sound our victory che -er.
Where do we go from here?

Why is the path unclear?
When we know home is near?
Understand we'll go hand-in-hand
But we'll walk alone in fear.
- Tell me!
Where do we go from here?
When does the end appear?
When do the trumpets cheer?
The curtains close on a kiss, God knows
We can tell the end is ne - ar ....fades
Where do we go from here?

GAC
08-01-2009, 08:37 AM
Either way, that still leaves the Reds trying to fill 6 or 7 spots, including a starting SS with about 3-5 Million dollars. It doesn't look good.

Say hello to AGon and his 2010 option for 6M (.5M buyout). :wave:

What other options do they have at SS? Either in the system, or who will be available around MLB, such as a FA?

And if you were a team that possessed such a SS, that we all covet, would you, as a GM, consider trading him away? And at what cost?

Got this from another thread - the SS FA list....

Orlando Cabrera (35)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Chris Gomez (39)
Alex Gonzalez (32) - $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
John McDonald (35)
Marco Scutaro (34)
Miguel Tejada (36)
Omar Vizquel (43)
Jack Wilson (32) - $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

So again..... say HI to AGon in 2010. ;)

mth123
08-01-2009, 09:17 AM
I think Weathers and Taveras (and Nix) need to be purged as quickly as possible for no money (even if it means a Lecure or Maloney get paired with Willy) with Stubbs/Heisey/Dorn the backfills in the OF and Fisher penciled into the pen. That would free up about $7.5 Million from Doug's scenario and may allow the team to sign either a mid-rotation starter (think Doug Davis of FCB fame) or an OF bat and possibly a cheap catcher.

The team should probably still try to unload Harang or Arroyo, but I wonder if they could get a pitcher even of their diminished status to come to Cincy without overpaying in similar dollars for a possibly longer tenure. At this point, holding those guys may be the best option. If a guy like Davis could be had for $6 or $7 Million per year or so, it would be a good move, but if it takes $10 Million per plus to entice a guy to GABP, they may as well just keep Arroyo and Harang.

Assuming Volquez is out in 2010 we'd be looking at:

Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Owings

Herrera
Fisher
2 of Burton, Lincoln or Bray (whoever can come back the best)
Rhodes
Masset
Cordero

I'd say that staff needs at least one upgrade in the rotation. I'd probably hold steady in the pen.

Hanigan
???

Votto
Phillips
????
Rolen
Janish
Rosales

Gomes
Dickerson
Bruce
Balentien
Stubbs/Heisey/Dorn

If there isn't enough cash to add some help, then 2010 will again be dependent on Bailey and Bruce fulfilling there once highly touted promise. Losing Stewart and Roenicke really hurt the team's ability to lower the cost of the pen to supplement other spots. If Rolen gets hurt ... (sounds a lot like the Griffey years).

GAC
08-01-2009, 10:01 AM
Does anyone think this FO is simply trying to "buy time" in the OF, and will continue to do so in 2010, in order to give prospects like Heisey, Stubbs, and even Frazier, more time and avoid rushing them? And I'm really not that impressed with Stubbs.

But we're looking at prospects that are 24 years old. How much time should be given them? Votto was here last year at age 24, Encarnacion at 22, Bruce at age 21. Now some may contend that we may have rushed EE and/or Bruce. Possibly.

But at what point do you give the above kids their shot?

top6
08-01-2009, 10:47 AM
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Where do we go from here?
Where do we go from here?
The battle's done, and we kind of won,
So we sound our victory che -er.
Where do we go from here?

Why is the path unclear?
When we know home is near?
Understand we'll go hand-in-hand
But we'll walk alone in fear.
- Tell me!
Where do we go from here?
When does the end appear?
When do the trumpets cheer?
The curtains close on a kiss, God knows
We can tell the end is ne - ar ....fades
Where do we go from here?

Even more appropriate for the Reds...


Every single night, the same arrangement,
I go out and fight the fight.
Still I always feel this strange estrangement,
Nothing here is real, nothing here is right.
I've been making shows of trading blows
Just hoping no one knows
That I've been go - ing through the motions,
Walking though the part,
Nothing seems to penetrate my - heart.

Krusty
08-01-2009, 11:11 AM
I don't know if the Reds can afford to trade Harang and Arroyo with the prospects that Volquez could be looking at Tommy John surgery and be out till the middle of next season. Add Homer Bailey inconsistency and the Reds rotation isn't as solid as we thought.

But if ownership is willing to up the payroll significantly, I can dream them pursuing Matt Holliday. At least I can dream.

Scrap Irony
08-01-2009, 12:51 PM
Starting Rotation
Harang 12.5
Arroyo 11
Volquez 0.4
Cueto 0.4
Bailey 0.4
Owings 0.4

Six guys here, with at least one likely to go before September. You've also got fifth starter chaff in AAA with Maloney and a fairly promising #4 starter in Wood. Injury questions abound, as does inconsistency. The rotation really needs a TOR ace and health from Volquez.
My 2010 wish: Brandon Webb-- Gamble on a healthy shoulder with a two-year contract worth $25 million. If he balks at that, quality secondary targets are available.

Relievers
Cordero 12
Rhodes 2
Lincoln 2.5
Herrera 0.4
Fisher 0.4
Masset 0.4

Not horrible if healthy, but health is a key. There is some reliever depth in AAA, in Viola (LH is inconsistent but plus stuff), Ondrusek (perhaps the best year out of reliever prospects in the entire system, with new heavy FB/ splitter), and AAA starters.


Infield
Philips 6.75
Rolen 11
Votto 0.4
Janish 0.4
Rosales 0.4
Sutton 0.4
Frazier 0.4

I'm guessing Janish mans SS, unless Cozart plays in September and mashes the ball. He's the weak bat the lineup could theorhetically support, assuming CF is not Taveras. The low-cost offensive option is to slide Phillips to short, with Frazier moving to 2B. Either way, it's not horrid. Across the IF, you have above average defense with better than average range.

Outfield
Taveras 4* (DFA)
Bruce 0.4
Gomes 0.4
Dickerson 0.4
Balentien 0.4
Dorn 0.4
Stubbs 0.4

I think Jocketty will jettison Taveras one way or another, as he has two true CF prospects ready (or nearly-so) and another year of Dickerson proving he belongs in the majors. Bruce, too, will play in RF, pretty much no matter what. I'm guessing Jocketty again goes platoon in LF, with a combination of Danny Dorn and either Balentien or Gomes. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see platoons across the OF, with Balentien in RF with Bruce, Dickerson and Heisey/ Stubbs in CF, and Dorn/ Gomes in LF. That's probably the most effective low-cost option.

extras 1
Total 72

Spring~Fields
08-01-2009, 01:02 PM
"Where do we go from here?"

Backwards to 2001 - 2008 and get to relive it all again.

Jpup
08-01-2009, 01:08 PM
down.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2009, 02:18 PM
The solution to all this is an offseason trade of Cordero once his no-trade expires.

Then, you use his money to buy a SP or a SS.

Brutus
08-01-2009, 02:22 PM
The solution to all this is an offseason trade of Cordero once his no-trade expires.

Then, you use his money to buy a SP or a SS.

Or at that price, both. :beerme:

mth123
08-01-2009, 02:30 PM
The solution to all this is an offseason trade of Cordero once his no-trade expires.

Then, you use his money to buy a SP or a SS.

Agree, but witout Roenicke and Stewart to take over, the pen has no back end to replace him. Masset maybe. I'd still trade him and take my chances of filling it on the cheap somehow.

pedro
08-01-2009, 03:37 PM
Call me a dreamer but I think the Reds will have a new SS, LF and maybe a SP on Opening day next year.

nate
08-01-2009, 03:40 PM
Call me a dreamer but I think the Reds will have a new SS, LF and maybe a SP on Opening day next year.

Cool!

But will they be good?

:cool:

pedro
08-01-2009, 03:42 PM
Cool!

But will they be good?

:cool:

Walt said last night that the Reds were looking for a vet SS at the trade deadline so i expect him to get one in the off season. How good? we'll see.

HokieRed
08-01-2009, 03:44 PM
Hope it's Miggy.

Kc61
08-01-2009, 04:00 PM
So we need to fill a starting shortstop and an entire bench with about 0 to 3 million dollars unless Bob is going to increase the payroll. Unless the Reds go with something like Cozart at SS and a bench made up of Sutton, Rosales, Stubbs, Heisey and Tatum its going to be really tough to keep this team at a budget of $70-75M next year without some other move coming where we dump salary. It also means that we shouldn't even expect a splash of the Willy Taveras proportion this offseason because the money just isn't there.

All this is sheer speculation. The Reds may dump some salaries. They may increase payroll. They may make trades where the Reds come out with payroll savings. They may find ways to replace non-producing veterans with less expensive players. In other words, we have absolutely no way of knowing the Reds financial flexibility to acquire players for 2010.

I'm sorry Zach Stewart was traded but it does not mean that doom and gloom are to follow.

dougdirt
08-01-2009, 04:27 PM
All this is sheer speculation. The Reds may dump some salaries. They may increase payroll. They may make trades where the Reds come out with payroll savings. They may find ways to replace non-producing veterans with less expensive players. In other words, we have absolutely no way of knowing the Reds financial flexibility to acquire players for 2010.

I'm sorry Zach Stewart was traded but it does not mean that doom and gloom are to follow.

The Reds had Arroyo and Harang moved already and Bob declined to take on some money to move them. Now they can't move them because there just isn't an acceptable replacement in the system unless you want to count on Maloney or Travis Wood next year. The Volquez deal very likely means we hold onto them. Sure, there are a lot of ifs in my situation but there are a whole lot more in yours. Your situation takes some level of creativeness. When was the last time the Reds showed that?

jojo
08-01-2009, 05:01 PM
Walt said last night that the Reds were looking for a vet SS at the trade deadline so i expect him to get one in the off season. How good? we'll see.

Hardy. :rockband:

Will M
08-01-2009, 05:48 PM
Lets assume Harang & Arroyo are not dealt this year...

1. the 2010 pen will be strong with Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Herrara, Fisher, Burton & Viola. Anything Lincoln gives us is a plus. Owings could (ideally) get pushed to the long relief/swingman role.
I hope the Reds buy out Weathers. Decent pitcher but not worth $3.9M

2. Edison facing possible Tommy John surgery really hurts the 2010 team.
We have...
TOR Cueto
MOR Harang
??? Bailey
BOR Arroyo
BOR Owings
BOR Maloney
AAA Travis Wood

The Reds will have to score a ton of runs to win with that rotation.
Alternately Bobby C could cough up cash for Harden, Webb, Lackey,etc

3. Get a SS and we could actually have a decent starting eight.
C Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS ???
3B Rolen
RF Bruce (still with worlds of potential)
CF Dickerson/Heisey/Stubbs (hope WT gets benched or DFAed)
LF Gomes in a platoon with a LH bat. Could use Dorn (cheap) or Nix or sign another Nix type to a minor league deal. Alonso & Frazier are starting in AAA and could be in the LF mix by mid season.

4. Bench will be put together in the offseason. Not too worried about it. Guys like Sutton and Rosales are going to get some playing time the rest of the way. if they don't cut it they'll be AAAA players.

IF the Reds get a SS and Bailey can be a MOR starter in 2010 the Reds are a .500 team. Not very exciting.

IF the Reds could move Arroyo's salary this year and replace him with a TOR free agent starter then I can get excited for 2010

Kc61
08-01-2009, 06:12 PM
The Reds had Arroyo and Harang moved already and Bob declined to take on some money to move them. Now they can't move them because there just isn't an acceptable replacement in the system unless you want to count on Maloney or Travis Wood next year. The Volquez deal very likely means we hold onto them. Sure, there are a lot of ifs in my situation but there are a whole lot more in yours. Your situation takes some level of creativeness. When was the last time the Reds showed that?

He'll move Harang or Arroyo, probably in August. A replacement will be picked up in the off season. He won't re-sign Gonzo or Weathers or Hernandez, unless to a much reduced contract.

Some positions, like centerfield, will be improved from within.

I'm confident the team will be better next season. The minors may be less deep, there may be more moves of prospects for veterans, but I sense that the org is now focusing more on the big club.

dsmith421
08-01-2009, 10:51 PM
Walt said last night that the Reds were looking for a vet SS at the trade deadline so i expect him to get one in the off season. How good? we'll see.

Sounds like Tejada or Cabrera. We'll probably end up with Khalil Greene.

Degenerate39
08-01-2009, 11:00 PM
The Reds need to seriously think about moving Owings to the OF.

Why? I honestly think his bat is overhyped. Sure it's damn good for a pitcher but it would be below average in the outfield as he would be getting a lot more PA.

alloverjr
08-01-2009, 11:01 PM
Say hello to AGon and his 2010 option for 6M (.5M buyout). :wave:

What other options do they have at SS? Either in the system, or who will be available around MLB, such as a FA?

And if you were a team that possessed such a SS, that we all covet, would you, as a GM, consider trading him away? And at what cost?

Got this from another thread - the SS FA list....

Orlando Cabrera (35)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Chris Gomez (39)
Alex Gonzalez (32) - $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
John McDonald (35)
Marco Scutaro (34)
Miguel Tejada (36)
Omar Vizquel (43)
Jack Wilson (32) - $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

So again..... say HI to AGon in 2010. ;)

Seems the best SS available is currently positioned on the opposite side of the second base bag.

LoganBuck
08-01-2009, 11:10 PM
1. Tank 2009, get up as high as possible in draft. Pray for Strasburg not to sign with Nats.
2. Please get rid of Willy Taveras, at all cost
3. Sign Aroldis Chapman.
4. Sign veteran SS as free agent, with the qualifier being that they can swing a bat.
5. Acquire everyday LF, preferably one that can bat cleanup.
6. Eat lots of Grippos and keep a bag in the pocket of each player.

corkedbat
08-01-2009, 11:28 PM
AGon's available. Not a move that most GMs would consider, but that won't stop Walter

chicoruiz
08-01-2009, 11:51 PM
One thing I'd do...I'd give Masset every opportunity to show he can start next season. It's what he wants to do anyway.

And I'd take Phillips's temperature on a move to short next year- and if he balks I'd listen to trade offers for him.

redsfandan
08-01-2009, 11:53 PM
Looks like Mark Prior is being released. I bet Dusty would love that reunion.

corkedbat
08-02-2009, 12:07 AM
I have come come to the conclusion that Jocketty was brought in to make Pants' return look good. Diabolical how effective he's becoming at it.

redsfan4445
08-02-2009, 12:08 AM
I went tonight to the game.. night and day watching the coaching on the Rockies side and the hopeless Reds side. And not to mention your worst 2 hitters batting 1 and 2 (yea Drew got a nice double then struck out 2 times after that). Now they are tied for last.. bet BOB is celebrating knowing he cant sell tickets if they dont seriously do something after August 31st and in the off season.

I Hope Arroyo is gone, Gonzo, Weathers and Sutton, and Hernandez will be as he wont take a pay cut. I cant see this team even close to being ready to contend. I thought they were at 40-40 earlier, but the front office didn't build on it. Just like they didnt do it back in 2002!! Rolen should have been a Red in 2002 and maybe they would have out did the Cards that year..I just dont understand why the Reds fans always get promises but never do they get delivered. it makes me feel like 1983 all over again!!

anyway

cincrazy
08-02-2009, 02:57 AM
I went tonight to the game.. night and day watching the coaching on the Rockies side and the hopeless Reds side. And not to mention your worst 2 hitters batting 1 and 2 (yea Drew got a nice double then struck out 2 times after that). Now they are tied for last.. bet BOB is celebrating knowing he cant sell tickets if they dont seriously do something after August 31st and in the off season.

I Hope Arroyo is gone, Gonzo, Weathers and Sutton, and Hernandez will be as he wont take a pay cut. I cant see this team even close to being ready to contend. I thought they were at 40-40 earlier, but the front office didn't build on it. Just like they didnt do it back in 2002!! Rolen should have been a Red in 2002 and maybe they would have out did the Cards that year..I just dont understand why the Reds fans always get promises but never do they get delivered. it makes me feel like 1983 all over again!!

anyway

I was at the game too. But I have to disagree with you... to me, the main difference was looking at the talent on the two teams. Maybe the Reds coaches can't coach. I don't know. Truth is we have no way of knowing, because the quality of player they're forced to coach leaves little room for success.

Highlifeman21
08-02-2009, 08:53 AM
The Reds had Arroyo and Harang moved already and Bob declined to take on some money to move them. Now they can't move them because there just isn't an acceptable replacement in the system unless you want to count on Maloney or Travis Wood next year. The Volquez deal very likely means we hold onto them. Sure, there are a lot of ifs in my situation but there are a whole lot more in yours. Your situation takes some level of creativeness. When was the last time the Reds showed that?

How do we know that the Reds had both Arroyo and Harang moved, but Bob didn't do it b/c it required taking on money?

Speculation?

redsfandan
08-02-2009, 08:59 AM
I wanted to look at the 2010 payroll a little differently by looking down the road to see how the payroll could look in 2011. To do that I broke the team into groups.

1st group: (These are the big contracts that will still be on the books after this season)

Francisco Cordero 2010: $12M, 2011: $12M, 2012: $12M club option ($1M buyout)
Aaron Harang 2010: $12.5M, 2011: $12.75M ($2M buyout)
Bronson Arroyo 2010: $11M, 2011: $11M club option ($2M buyout)
Scott Rolen 2010: $11M
Brandon Phillips 2010: $6.75M, 2011: $11M, 2012: $12M club option ($1M buyout)

If Harang & Arroyo are still around through 2010 then their 2011 buyouts would cost a combined $4m. Rolen isn't under contract past 2010. If/when he does sign an extension I doubt it will pay him $11m/yr. Maybe $20m between Rolen and Phillips for 2011 and $36m for Rolen/Phillips/Cordero and the buyouts.

2nd group: (Other current Reds that could still be around in 2011)

Infield
Hanigan
Votto

Outfield
Bruce

Rotation
Cueto
Volquez
Bailey
Owings

Bench
Dickerson
Balentien
Gomes
Janish
Rosales
Sutton
Tatum

This group could include at least a couple long-term contracts by 2011 but will mostly be composed of players still in arbitration. And at least a couple will be gone by 2011 due to attrition, trades, etc. This group could cost anywhere from $15-$25m in 2011.

3rd group: (the bullpen excluding Cordero)

Weathers, Rhodes, & Lincoln should all be gone by 2011. That will leave...

Burton
Fisher
Herrera
Masset
Bray?

I think all 5 will be arbitration eligible in 2011. Maybe $5m-$7m for the bunch.

4th group: (the current top prospects that could be expected up in 2011 or sooner)

Alonso
Cozart
Heisey
Stubbs
Frazier
Wood
Leake

They'll all be either rookies or 2nd year players in 2011 so they'll all be super cheap. $3m-$4m total.

That's roughly $43m+ - $72m+ depending mostly on whether another team will take over what's left on the contract for Cordero and the buyouts for Harang & Arroyo ($43m-$56m if you don't include Cordero and the buyouts). After this season Cordero will have a limited no-trade clause instead of a full no-trade clause which should make it easier to move him although it may be easier at the trade deadline next year (if a contender needs a closer) or after 2010 when there will be only one season left on the contract. Realistically, that could leave the bulk of the team at around $50m in 2011.

Now it's already been pointed out that there's not much room in the 2010 payroll for free agent signings. But if the Reds DO become buyers this offseason they could backload contracts to minimize the damage in 2010. For example, if there is a player that fits the type of player we're looking for and he wants $7m/yr for 3 years we could ask if he'd be open to something like $3m/$9m/$9m instead.

A payroll bump to $80m combined with some creative contracts could be the solution that would allow an offseason that provides hope for 2010.

GAC
08-02-2009, 09:58 AM
4. Sign veteran SS as free agent, with the qualifier being that they can swing a bat.
5. Acquire everyday LF, preferably one that can bat cleanup

#5 is gonna be a lot easier to obtain then #4.

But then.... look who we've had manning LF for us this year. Of course FR has been far worse. I like Gomes. Just don't think he's an everyday player; but nice off the bench.

Someone posted the available SS FA list after this season, and it's not very promising. Most are a bunch of 30+ aging SSs with declining skills, or erratic younger players with "warts".

That's why I think AGon will be here next season.

GAC
08-02-2009, 09:59 AM
Looks like Mark Prior is being released. I bet Dusty would love that reunion.

Great! Then wherever Mark goes send Dusty. :p:

Will M
08-03-2009, 08:29 PM
Lets assume Harang & Arroyo are not dealt this year...

1. the 2010 pen will be strong with Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Herrara, Fisher, Burton & Viola. Anything Lincoln gives us is a plus. Owings could (ideally) get pushed to the long relief/swingman role.
I hope the Reds buy out Weathers. Decent pitcher but not worth $3.9M

2. Edison facing possible Tommy John surgery really hurts the 2010 team.
We have...
TOR Cueto
MOR Harang
??? Bailey
BOR Arroyo
BOR Owings
BOR Maloney
AAA Travis Wood

The Reds will have to score a ton of runs to win with that rotation.
Alternately Bobby C could cough up cash for Harden, Webb, Lackey,etc

3. Get a SS and we could actually have a decent starting eight.
C Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS ???
3B Rolen
RF Bruce (still with worlds of potential)
CF Dickerson/Heisey/Stubbs (hope WT gets benched or DFAed)
LF Gomes in a platoon with a LH bat. Could use Dorn (cheap) or Nix or sign another Nix type to a minor league deal. Alonso & Frazier are starting in AAA and could be in the LF mix by mid season.

4. Bench will be put together in the offseason. Not too worried about it. Guys like Sutton and Rosales are going to get some playing time the rest of the way. if they don't cut it they'll be AAAA players.

IF the Reds get a SS and Bailey can be a MOR starter in 2010 the Reds are a .500 team. Not very exciting.

IF the Reds could move Arroyo's salary this year and replace him with a TOR free agent starter then I can get excited for 2010

i thought i would bump this thread with Edison getting TJ surgery today.

question for the ORG: what do you expect out of Homer Bailey next year?
i have seen him pitch a fair amount and he has the stuff but his control is not great and he seems to nibble a lot. i would pencil him in as a BOR starter for 2010

Castellini seems to be in a mode where he wants to win now. otherwise the Rolen trade makes absolutely no sense. lets say the following occurs...

#1 the Reds trade a prospect like Alonso, Frazier, whoever for a real major league SS. or get one by signing Orlando Hudson and moving BP to SS

#2 the Reds pony up cash for a free agent TOR starter (Bedard, Harden or Lackey)

#3 due to EV being out for 2010 they keep both Harang & Arroyo.

#4 because of money issues they try to fill LF on the cheap

Could the Reds win with this lineup?
CF Dickerson (L)/Heisey/Stubbs
2B Hudson
1B Votto (L)
3B Rolen
SS Phillips
RF Bruce (L)
LF Gomes +- cheap LH platoon type partner
C Hanigan + veteran backup

SP:
Lackey-Harden-Bedard
Cueto
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
AAA - Maolney, Wood

RP: Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Herrara, Fisher, Burton, Viola, Owings

I would say that this team is not a world beater but could certainly win 85 to 90 games.

I would really like Castellini and Walt to give us more info on what their plan is going forward.

GAC
08-03-2009, 08:39 PM
Ok. Here's an idea that came to me last night after listening to ESPN go over some of the teams making TD deals.

How about trying to get Grady Sizemore from the Indians? The Indians unloaded C.C. last year, and this year - Lee and Martinez. And they seem to do so for a prospect package since they have now entered into another of their "rebuilding" modes.

Yeah, Sizemore has had a bad year in '09. He had a short stint on the DL earlier and hasn't put it together this year. But that may make it easier to swing a deal to get him from the Indians.

He is only 27. His contract?.....

09:$4.6M, 10:$5.6M, 11:$7.5M, 12:$8.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

2012 option may escalate to $10.5M if Sizemore wins Gold Glove or Silver Slugger, makes All Star team or ranks high in MVP vote (2008 All Star selection increased price of 2012 option to $9M).

fearofpopvol1
08-03-2009, 08:39 PM
The Reds had Arroyo and Harang moved already and Bob declined to take on some money to move them. Now they can't move them because there just isn't an acceptable replacement in the system unless you want to count on Maloney or Travis Wood next year.

Link?

Benihana
08-03-2009, 08:51 PM
Not really adding much new here and I don't usually like to pile on, but I have to say that this is the most down I've been on the Reds in a long, long time.

How different things look now than they did one month ago- and I'm not talking about for this season.

flyer85
08-03-2009, 09:22 PM
I have a pretty good idea where things are headed

BRM
08-04-2009, 03:02 PM
I have a pretty good idea where things are headed

Is it a swirling motion inside some porcelain?

Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 03:19 PM
Now that Volquez is kaput, it shifts the dynamic to a degree: Arroyo and Harang are likely not going to be traded now or in the offseason (maybe next deadline), Homer will be allowed to develop regardless of numbers, and Bruce will likely be given however long he needs to perform in RF. This version of the team is not going to compete, as the emphasis will shift from immediate contention to a slower build. This isn't going to be a herky-jerky stop-start motion, but a slow accretion of talent. Contention is going to take awhile not only because there's very little talent on the 25 man and in the minors, but also because a slow build is what the market is dictating right now.

A fast track contention would need to see everyone but Cueto getting replaced in the rotation, Bruce getting replaced in the near-term, CF getting filled by a better FA, SS getting filled by an established expensive offensive minded hitter, a LF. That's just untenable. I'm not sure what the target year is for contention (maybe there isn't one), but I'm certain that 2010 is shot and 2011 is likely as well. 2012 might not be a bad target.

Caveat Emperor
08-04-2009, 03:27 PM
FWIW, I expect Phillips to be moved this offseason as well. If Yonder Alonso hadn't gotten hurt, he'd be a good candidate to move elsewhere, since my gut instinct tells me that the Reds aren't going to touch anything about Joey Votto (offensively or positionally) as long as he's the only player on the team performing at an acceptable level.

BRM
08-04-2009, 03:48 PM
FWIW, I expect Phillips to be moved this offseason as well. If Yonder Alonso hadn't gotten hurt, he'd be a good candidate to move elsewhere, since my gut instinct tells me that the Reds aren't going to touch anything about Joey Votto (offensively or positionally) as long as he's the only player on the team performing at an acceptable level.

Yonder is back playing again today. A good finish to the season might get him moved this winter as well. I agree with you on Votto. I think the Reds will leave him alone and he'll anchor 1B for a long time.

M2
08-04-2009, 03:49 PM
1. Tank 2009, get up as high as possible in draft. Pray for Strasburg not to sign with Nats.

Can't stress this one enough. The Reds would be doing themselves a disservice if they started playing respectable baseball. It would be a complete waste of the epic collapse of the past month.

MississippiRed
08-04-2009, 04:02 PM
Seems the best SS available is currently positioned on the opposite side of the second base bag.

I like Scutaro, but I like Orlando Hudson better.

nate
08-04-2009, 04:12 PM
Can't stress this one enough. The Reds would be doing themselves a disservice if they started playing respectable baseball. It would be a complete waste of the epic collapse of the past month.

You mean they'd fail their epic fail epicly?

Epic!

Chip R
08-04-2009, 04:23 PM
I went tonight to the game.. night and day watching the coaching on the Rockies side and the hopeless Reds side.


Could you elaborate on that statement?

LoganBuck
08-04-2009, 05:09 PM
You mean they'd fail their epic fail epicly?

Epic!

The Bengals have been doing this for almost 20 years. They wrote a book on it, "The Complete Idiots Guide to Winning in December: How to screw a fanbase."

Putting too much emphasis on game results when the main objective has been thrown out the window is pathetic. The Reds have 12 games left against the Pirates, which is about 1 out of every 5.5 games remaining. I could easily see them winning the majority of those games, and then hanging on to some stupid turd nugget of knowledge gleaned from those games, and carry it forward as offseason policy. This team needs epic fail for three reasons.

1. Real pressure from the fans to change direction, especially when it comes to sacrificial lambs. My guess is Castellini, Jocketty, & Co. will at least turnover the coaching staff.

2. BobC to put his money where his mouth is. Bill Cunningham put him on record about the chances of this team. He expected the playoffs. I want the media to pressure him into fixing this mess. If he has to open his wallet, then he better do it. You can't trade away prospects on one side of the ledger, and then cry poor on the other side, when it comes to Free Agency.

3. Draft Position for the chance at Strasburg/Harper, I could see the Nats winning more games over the next two months. They have a better rotation(potential), and can score more runs. I see the Reds as being really bad, and I don't think the coming road trip will help.

westofyou
08-04-2009, 05:30 PM
Could you elaborate on that statement?

What's to elborate on?

It's nothing more than assumptions based on preconceived notions, the Reds are losing therefore they must be managed by losers.

It's emotional charged analysis that ignores talent as the deciding factor.

nate
08-04-2009, 05:50 PM
The Bengals have been doing this for almost 20 years. They wrote a book on it, "The Complete Idiots Guide to Winning in December: How to screw a fanbase."

Putting too much emphasis on game results when the main objective has been thrown out the window is pathetic. The Reds have 12 games left against the Pirates, which is about 1 out of every 5.5 games remaining. I could easily see them winning the majority of those games, and then hanging on to some stupid turd nugget of knowledge gleaned from those games, and carry it forward as offseason policy. This team needs epic fail for three reasons.

1. Real pressure from the fans to change direction, especially when it comes to sacrificial lambs. My guess is Castellini, Jocketty, & Co. will at least turnover the coaching staff.

2. BobC to put his money where his mouth is. Bill Cunningham put him on record about the chances of this team. He expected the playoffs. I want the media to pressure him into fixing this mess. If he has to open his wallet, then he better do it. You can't trade away prospects on one side of the ledger, and then cry poor on the other side, when it comes to Free Agency.

3. Draft Position for the chance at Strasburg/Harper, I could see the Nats winning more games over the next two months. They have a better rotation(potential), and can score more runs. I see the Reds as being really bad, and I don't think the coming road trip will help.

Yep.

Ltlabner
08-04-2009, 05:52 PM
Can't stress this one enough. The Reds would be doing themselves a disservice if they started playing respectable baseball. It would be a complete waste of the epic collapse of the past month.

Worse yet, if there is an uptick, there's always the danger of them thinking "we're heading in the right direction" and continuing to make tweaks.

Nasty_Boy
08-04-2009, 05:57 PM
Yonder is back playing again today. A good finish to the season might get him moved this winter as well. I agree with you on Votto. I think the Reds will leave him alone and he'll anchor 1B for a long time.

Is everyone in agreement that Yonder is going to be traded, rather than Joey moving to LF... It just seems that the majority of the ORG feels this way. I've heard all of the reasoning on the subject, and some I agree with and some I don't... I just thought it was odd that just about everyone thinks Yonder isn't long for the Reds.

HokieRed
08-04-2009, 05:59 PM
Is everyone in agreement that Yonder is going to be traded, rather than Joey moving to LF... It just seems that the majority of the ORG feels this way. I've heard all of the reasoning on the subject, and some I agree with and some I don't... I just thought it was odd that just about everyone thinks Yonder isn't long for the Reds.

I do not think Yonder will be traded only b/c he seems blocked. He may be traded for something of value but, if he stays, I think he'll prove good enough that they'll at least try to move Votto to LF. Of course what happens will, if we get to that point, depend partly on Votto.

Chip R
08-04-2009, 06:03 PM
What's to elborate on?

It's nothing more than assumptions based on preconceived notions, the Reds are losing therefore they must be managed by losers.

It's emotional charged analysis that ignores talent as the deciding factor.


He may have some insight as to what he saw at the game. Someone posted here that last night they saw Derrick Lee talking to the Cubs pitcher and it appeared he was telling him how to pitch to the Reds batters. If he has something to tell us besides his opinion, great. If not, no big deal.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 06:04 PM
I do not think Yonder will be traded only b/c he seems blocked. He may be traded for something of value but, if he stays, I think he'll prove good enough that they'll at least try to move Votto to LF. Of course what happens will, if we get to that point, depend partly on Votto.

I know this probably isn't the time or the place to bring this up, but...

Why the heck didn't the Reds draft Gordon Beckham in 2008? The team could really use him at SS right about now.

M2
08-04-2009, 07:01 PM
You mean they'd fail their epic fail epicly?

Epic!

Nate, you have now become my favorite poster.

westofyou
08-04-2009, 10:47 PM
He may have some insight as to what he saw at the game. Someone posted here that last night they saw Derrick Lee talking to the Cubs pitcher and it appeared he was telling him how to pitch to the Reds batters. If he has something to tell us besides his opinion, great. If not, no big deal.

He might, but I doubt it, I'm a doubting Thomas on the "they are dumb and I saw it from my seat" theory.

jojo
08-04-2009, 10:48 PM
Where do the Reds go from here?

Only up.....

Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 10:49 PM
Where do the Reds go from here?

Only up.....

For that they'll have to overcome a lot of inertia.