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Eric_the_Red
08-03-2009, 11:55 AM
It seems like there is plenty of blame to go around for the state of the Reds this year. I'd like to hear opinion on where the bulk of the troubles lie. Which of the following is the major culprit? How would you rank these from biggest problem to smallest?

Ownership/Bob Castellini - not spending money
GM/Scouting - not acquiring/evaluating talent accurately
Coaching/Dusty Baker - mismanagement of roster/lineup/pitchers
Talent/the players - simply not good enough/no improvement
MLB/Bud Selig - isn't everything Bud's fault? (Just kidding on this one. Kind of.)

Will M
08-03-2009, 12:25 PM
1. injury to Volquez
2. Walt not getting a SS in the offseason
3. Walt getting Taveras and Dusty batting him leadoff every day
4. Bruce's ineffectiveness & injury
5. Harang slipping from TOR to an average pitcher
6. Arroyo slipping from an average to a below average pitcher
7. Homer still not getting it
8. EE's injury
9. Walt keeping Gomes in AAA for 2 months
10. the putridness of the 2009 Reds is multifactorial

LincolnparkRed
08-03-2009, 12:31 PM
11 No depth in organization

Other teams bring guys up and have some success McGahee (MIL), Fox, Fuld with the Cubs, some guys on the Cards, we had Rosales and Sutton

durl
08-03-2009, 12:32 PM
1. injury to Volquez
2. Walt not getting a SS in the offseason
3. Walt getting Taveras and Dusty batting him leadoff every day
4. Bruce's ineffectiveness & injury
5. Harang slipping from TOR to an average pitcher
6. Arroyo slipping from an average to a below average pitcher
7. Homer still not getting it
8. EE's injury
9. Walt keeping Gomes in AAA for 2 months
10. the putridness of the 2009 Reds is multifactorial

Looks about right to me.

GOYA
08-03-2009, 12:45 PM
11 No depth in organization

Other teams bring guys up and have some success McGahee (MIL), Fox, Fuld with the Cubs, some guys on the Cards, we had Rosales and Sutton

Rosie and Sutton

and

Gomes
Fisher
Roenicke
Manuel
Ramirez
Homer
Lehr
Maloney
Wells
Tatum
Richar
Castillo

Now add in the guys that came up from last year's AAA:

Herrera
Hanigan
Janish
Bruce
Dickerson

Just how many quality players do you expect to be ready for the majors in such a short time?

nate
08-03-2009, 01:18 PM
1. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
2. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
3. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
4. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
5. Lame mascots

elfmanvt07
08-03-2009, 01:27 PM
1. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
2. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
3. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
4. A lack of average to above average talent in the starting 9, 3/5ths of the rotation and 3 bullpen guys.
5. Lame mascots

Hey, Gapper don't take no mess.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3160/2411412352_447c347652.jpg?v=0

Eric_the_Red
08-03-2009, 02:31 PM
So is the lack of talent the fault of an owner that won't spend, a GM that can't evaluate talent, a coaching staff that cannot manage or maximize talent, or players that cannot fulfill their talent?

BCubb2003
08-03-2009, 02:41 PM
An organization early in its rebuilding, means it hasn't developed enough talent, means it doesn't have enough depth, to overcame an unusual amount of serious injuries, means more would have to be spent than the owner is willing to give, which means the imperfect moves by the GM and manager are magnified, which leads to a plunge in the standings, malaise among the players and despair in the fans.

redsmetz
08-03-2009, 02:47 PM
An organization early in its rebuilding, means it hasn't developed enough talent, means it doesn't have enough depth, to overcame an unusual amount of serious injuries, means more would have to be spent than the owner is willing to give, which means the imperfect moves by the GM and manager are magnified, which leads to a plunge in the standings, malaise among the players and despair in the fans.

That's about as succinct an analyis as has been made around here in a long time. Well stated, although it remains a sad, but true, tale.

bucksfan2
08-03-2009, 02:54 PM
An organization early in its rebuilding, means it hasn't developed enough talent, means it doesn't have enough depth, to overcame an unusual amount of serious injuries, means more would have to be spent than the owner is willing to give, which means the imperfect moves by the GM and manager are magnified, which leads to a plunge in the standings, malaise among the players and despair in the fans.

I will add 3 GM's and 2 owners in a span of 5 years. Combine that with an impatient fan base who think winning can occur over night. A fan base who is unwilling to accept the lumps that young plays take. And finally a win now mentality with little acceptance for anything else.

Ltlabner
08-03-2009, 03:00 PM
5. Lame mascots

I wonder how much payroll money gets used up every year in paying off Gapper's sexual harassment lawsuits?

BCubb2003
08-03-2009, 03:06 PM
I will add 3 GM's and 2 owners in a span of 5 years.

Yes, that's why the franchise is always so early in its rebuilding.

princeton
08-03-2009, 03:11 PM
my take is that the owner wants to have everything all at once, but doesn't have the wallet or the franchise strength to do it. he needs to give more power to his GM, and stay out of the baseball side of things.

HokieRed
08-03-2009, 03:13 PM
The first serious sign of rebuilding I've seen is the trade for Rolen, which is a way of saying the Reds now refuse to be regarded as a joke, that finally the team is serious about acquiring something more than mediocrities who are then paid enough to make fans and bloggers think they're a lot better than they are. I see it as Walt's first serious action. Maybe he's decided to take the job seriously in a way he hasn't before.

Stormy
08-03-2009, 03:14 PM
I will add 3 GM's and 2 owners in a span of 5 years. Combine that with an impatient fan base who think winning can occur over night. A fan base who is unwilling to accept the lumps that young plays take. And finally a win now mentality with little acceptance for anything else.

You've got everything inverted. The only people who don't have the patience, or will, to oversee a rebuild are the ownership and F.O., not the fan base. That 's the reason our new owner has already gone through so many managers and GMs, uttering the 'win now' mantra every step along the way. We can't commit to a rebuild, because the Reds are on the eternal vicious cycle of trying to win immediately, while psuedo-rebuilding. 3 youngsters for Rolen, on a last place team which has a league cellar offense and rotation, is the latest move in this never ending charade.

Stormy
08-03-2009, 03:17 PM
The first serious sign of rebuilding I've seen is the trade for Rolen, which is a way of saying the Reds now refuse to be regarded as a joke, that finally the team is serious about acquiring something more than mediocrities who are then paid enough to make fans and bloggers think they're a lot better than they are. I see it as Walt's first serious action. Maybe he's decided to take the job seriously in a way he hasn't before.

I see it as the desperation flailing of a GM who won't be here after 2010, unless he's given a virtually unlimited payroll to spend filling the innumerable holes he's left untended.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2009, 03:19 PM
All of the above.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2009, 03:50 PM
Stormy is right on as always.

Scrap Irony
08-03-2009, 03:50 PM
1. No ace with Volquez out.
Cueto tried mightily for three months, but youth caught up to him. Not only does this damage at the top, it effectively drained the minor league options available and made everyone else step it up a notch. No one did.

2. Lack of table setters.
The OBPs are anemic and virtually guarantee Votto up with none on and two out. Not a good recipe for a team all knew would struggle to score runs.

3. Ineffectiveness of Harang/ Arroyo
With Volquez out, it became imperative for the two vets to provide assistance and lead with results. Neither has even been league average. And, for all the money they're being paid, that's a major problem.

4. Injuries to Big Boppers of lineup
When EdE struggled to start the season, the Reds were playing a hitter short. In a lineup that needed every run it could get, that hurt. When Votto went down with him for a month, it effectively ended any chance the Reds had up until that point.

5. Injuries to Regulars
AGon, Bruce, Dickerson, Owings, Lincoln, Burton, Hernandez-- all have shown league average or better ability in the past couple years. All missed significant time this year. Most needed to be not just healthy, but good this year for the Reds to compete.

There are other factors, but these are the main ones.

HokieRed
08-03-2009, 04:12 PM
Seems to me clearly that the most important constraint on rebuilding the team is the money paid to 4 players: Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and Gonzalez. Our inability to trade them tells you how the market values them. I agree with Stormy that part of the problem has been our being caught in the vicious cycle of trying to compete now when we're really nowhere near that point, which is why I said I haven't seen much evidence we've been in rebuilding mode. I don't like giving up Stewart or Roenicke any more than anybody else, but I think you can put a hopeful construction on the acquisition of Rolen by saying that having people in places where they can catch the ball is important to getting the team to respect itself--and I also think having Rolen at 3b instead of EE makes it a whole lot less likely that prospective free agent pitchers will not dismiss us out of hand. To put it bluntly, would you pitch, given a choice, for a team that thinks EE is a third baseman?

Tom Servo
08-03-2009, 04:14 PM
Bob Boone.

princeton
08-03-2009, 04:30 PM
Seems to me clearly that the most important constraint on rebuilding the team is the money paid to 4 players: Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and Gonzalez. Our inability to trade them tells you how the market values them. I agree with Stormy that part of the problem has been our being caught in the vicious cycle of trying to compete now when we're really nowhere near that point, which is why I said I haven't seen much evidence we've been in rebuilding mode. I don't like giving up Stewart or Roenicke any more than anybody else, but I think you can put a hopeful construction on the acquisition of Rolen by saying that having people in places where they can catch the ball is important to getting the team to respect itself--and I also think having Rolen at 3b instead of EE makes it a whole lot less likely that prospective free agent pitchers will not dismiss us out of hand. To put it bluntly, would you pitch, given a choice, for a team that thinks EE is a third baseman?


this is such a cool post because it's like listening to Cast. need good players but can't pay them but want to bring in more but need to win first but need to rebuild too.

Cast's "to do" list:

1. Everything.

2. After finishing number 1, begin to focus.

Chip R
08-03-2009, 04:38 PM
I don't like giving up Stewart or Roenicke any more than anybody else, but I think you can put a hopeful construction on the acquisition of Rolen by saying that having people in places where they can catch the ball is important to getting the team to respect itself--and I also think having Rolen at 3b instead of EE makes it a whole lot less likely that prospective free agent pitchers will not dismiss us out of hand. To put it bluntly, would you pitch, given a choice, for a team that thinks EE is a third baseman?


If you are a prospective FA pitcher, I think that the defense behind you - and one position in particular - is going to be the deciding factor whether or not you sign with a particular team unless you either really like the guy or you hate him. You really think the Reds would have been in the running for Burnett and/or Colon if Rolen were at 3rd instead of EE?

HokieRed
08-03-2009, 05:23 PM
If you are a prospective FA pitcher, I think that the defense behind you - and one position in particular - is going to be the deciding factor whether or not you sign with a particular team unless you either really like the guy or you hate him. You really think the Reds would have been in the running for Burnett and/or Colon if Rolen were at 3rd instead of EE?

I think their chances of signing any free agent pitcher go up with Rolen at 3b over EE. There are, admittedly, lots of other reasons not to want to pitch in Cinti. But having Rolen at 3rd is at least one small positive.

HokieRed
08-03-2009, 05:25 PM
this is such a cool post because it's like listening to Cast. need good players but can't pay them but want to bring in more but need to win first but need to rebuild too.

Cast's "to do" list:

1. Everything.

2. After finishing number 1, begin to focus.

I'm hoping the Rolen signing actually means we're at the beginning of something quite different. Elimination of mediocrity wherever possible. It will be difficult, to be sure, since we have so much overpaid mediocrity. But it is a start. You cannot have a team that respects itself when you go year after year with a 3bman that can't catch the ball. It's really that simple. I think we're only just barely at the beginning.

RedEye
08-03-2009, 07:20 PM
So is the lack of talent the fault of an owner that won't spend, a GM that can't evaluate talent, a coaching staff that cannot manage or maximize talent, or players that cannot fulfill their talent?

Yes.

RedsManRick
08-03-2009, 08:32 PM
We don't win because of: Talent/the players - simply not good enough/no improvement. (That said, I don't blame players for being who they are. It's not Willy Taveras' fault that he's not Grady Sizemore)

We don't have enough talent because of: GM/Scouting - not acquiring/evaluating talent accurately

We don't get enough out of the talent we do have because of:Coaching/Dusty Baker - mismanagement of roster/lineup/pitchers

We might be able to overcome the above issues through brute force were it not for: Ownership/Bob Castellini - not spending money

All of that said, I think that Castellini has tied the hands of both Krivsky and Jocketty. O'Brien was going to do a full rebuild while just saving face at the major league level over a number of years. When Bob took over, he didn't like that idea at all (the losing stops now anybody?) and sent him packing. He brought in a guy on the cheap, Krivsky, with a scouting background who said he'd try to win now and later -- but he got scapegoated when it didn't happen. So Castellini went out and got the guy he really wanted all along, but who wasn't available the first time around and needed convinced to come back. And now he's told Jocketty that he's got to win now but that he can't expand payroll much. Hence you get retread veterans signed to mid-level contracts, based on poor evaluation methods, up to our payroll cap to maximize the chance that we win this year... in theory. You get trading away near-ready prospects to take on an old, injury prone talent. Baker and Pole are just the bitter icing on the cake.

corkedbat
08-03-2009, 09:12 PM
The first serious sign of rebuilding I've seen is the trade for Rolen, which is a way of saying the Reds now refuse to be regarded as a joke, that finally the team is serious about acquiring something more than mediocrities who are then paid enough to make fans and bloggers think they're a lot better than they are. I see it as Walt's first serious action. Maybe he's decided to take the job seriously in a way he hasn't before.

Yhe Rolen deal is another futile waste of resources that gives the front office the avility to say "look we're still in this, we can still recurit," instead of actually implementing a plan that might actual let them kay the goundwork to do something truly interesting in the nextto or three years.

The Rolen deal was a total waste and as emblematic of what has been wrong with this franchise for the last decade as possibly any one move Jocketty could have made.

Rojo
08-03-2009, 10:10 PM
Cast was enthralled with the Syd Thrift/Mike Hargrove model.

sonny
08-03-2009, 10:33 PM
It's simple. The teams playing against the Reds have more runs than the Reds at the end of the game.

cincrazy
08-03-2009, 10:38 PM
We don't win because of: Talent/the players - simply not good enough/no improvement. (That said, I don't blame players for being who they are. It's not Willy Taveras' fault that he's not Grady Sizemore)
We don't have enough talent because of: GM/Scouting - not acquiring/evaluating talent accurately

We don't get enough out of the talent we do have because of:Coaching/Dusty Baker - mismanagement of roster/lineup/pitchers

We might be able to overcome the above issues through brute force were it not for: Ownership/Bob Castellini - not spending money

All of that said, I think that Castellini has tied the hands of both Krivsky and Jocketty. O'Brien was going to do a full rebuild while just saving face at the major league level over a number of years. When Bob took over, he didn't like that idea at all (the losing stops now anybody?) and sent him packing. He brought in a guy on the cheap, Krivsky, with a scouting background who said he'd try to win now and later -- but he got scapegoated when it didn't happen. So Castellini went out and got the guy he really wanted all along, but who wasn't available the first time around and needed convinced to come back. And now he's told Jocketty that he's got to win now but that he can't expand payroll much. Hence you get retread veterans signed to mid-level contracts, based on poor evaluation methods, up to our payroll cap to maximize the chance that we win this year... in theory. You get trading away near-ready prospects to take on an old, injury prone talent. Baker and Pole are just the bitter icing on the cake.

Fantastic post.

And concerning the bolded part, I was at a game not too long ago, they were playing the Padres. I found myself feeling sorry for Willy Taveras. He has a lot of venom directed his way, and it's not his fault he sucks. He works hard, is living a dream, making damn good money doing something he loves. Yet he's the target of a lot of venom. It's kind of sad when you think about it.

sonny
08-03-2009, 10:57 PM
Fantastic post.

And concerning the bolded part, I was at a game not too long ago, they were playing the Padres. I found myself feeling sorry for Willy Taveras. He has a lot of venom directed his way, and it's not his fault he sucks. He works hard, is living a dream, making damn good money doing something he loves. Yet he's the target of a lot of venom. It's kind of sad when you think about it.

It's this kind of positivity that will get you nowhere, sir.;)

dsmith421
08-03-2009, 11:01 PM
And concerning the bolded part, I was at a game not too long ago, they were playing the Padres. I found myself feeling sorry for Willy Taveras. He has a lot of venom directed his way, and it's not his fault he sucks. He works hard, is living a dream, making damn good money doing something he loves. Yet he's the target of a lot of venom. It's kind of sad when you think about it.

I don't feel bad for Taveras at all. He's set for life, his family is set for life, and he's done it all despite really being a bad baseball player. Reminds me of George Costanza's description of Kramer, "His whole life is a fantasy camp."

westofyou
08-03-2009, 11:03 PM
The problem is the Reds have always been more worried about being owned by a local than they have been being owned by a visionary. They divvy ownership into little slices of revenue generating sized shares and make someone else play bad cop, or they let dottering fools and morons run the teams business.

Now they are so far back in the Midwest market that they look bad compared to college basketball as a dollar destination.

They are the dumb dog chasing its tail and wondering why they can't catch it.

George Anderson
08-03-2009, 11:06 PM
They are the dumb dog chasing its tail and wondering why they can't catch it.

So very true.

cincrazy
08-03-2009, 11:11 PM
I don't feel bad for Taveras at all. He's set for life, his family is set for life, and he's done it all despite really being a bad baseball player. Reminds me of George Costanza's description of Kramer, "His whole life is a fantasy camp."

So what if he's set for life? He's earned it. He's busted his butt to get where he's at. I happen to think he's the worst player I've ever seen in my lifetime, but he's still a hell of a lot better than anyone on this board commenting on his play.

I hate watching him, in the field or at bat. He makes my eyes bleed. I can't wait until he leaves.

But a part of me feels sorry for him, that's all.

wheels
08-03-2009, 11:15 PM
The problem is the Reds have always been more worried about being owned by a local than they have been being owned by a visionary. They divvy ownership into little slices of revenue generating sized shares and make someone else play bad cop, or they let dottering fools and morons run the teams business.

Now they are so far back in the Midwest market that they look bad compared to college basketball as a dollar destination.

They are the dumb dog chasing its tail and wondering why they can't catch it.

Absolutely perfect.

Castellini has yet to blame the fans for their troubles.

I guess we can take some stock in that for now, but I can see that excuse coming 'round the bend in short order.

mth123
08-04-2009, 04:26 AM
I think the Rolen trade does mean we've entered a new phase where Walt has put his stamp on the team.


We're officially at the point of overpaying for guys Walt has man-love for instead of overpaying for guys that Dusty has man-love for (Taveras, Patterson, Hairston).

icehole3
08-04-2009, 04:56 AM
my take is that the owner wants to have everything all at once, but doesn't have the wallet or the franchise strength to do it. he needs to give more power to his GM, and stay out of the baseball side of things.

I agree 1000%, it goes all the way back with him wanting a big name manager when he had a good tactician in place in Pet MacKanin then the snowball kept moving down the slope.