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LincolnparkRed
08-03-2009, 12:29 PM
Gave away the 4th an 6th best prospects according to this


Wallace best of traded prospects
Saturday, August 1, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
A slew of prospects moved in the days leading up to the trade deadline, although nearly all were second-tier prospects, since buyers refused to part with long lists of "untouchable" prospects. Here's a rundown of the top 10 prospects who had to pack their bags in a hurry:

1. Brett Wallace, 3B, from St. Louis to Oakland: Wallace is the only impact prospect among all minor leaguers who changed hands in the past two weeks, and his is a special case, since he may have to move to first base, a position the Cardinals reserve for players with superhuman abilities. Wallace should be somewhere in Oakland's starting lineup next April.


2. Nick Hagadone, LHP, from Boston to Cleveland: Hagadone is just 26 innings into his return from Tommy John surgery, and while his development was slowed by the injury and long layoff, at worst he looks like a very good late-game reliever who can get left- and right-handed hitters out. There's still a chance he can develop into a starter, although that's going to take time.

3. Josh Bell, 3B, from L.A. Dodgers to Baltimore: Bell looks as though he'll develop into at least a solid-average third baseman for Baltimore if he can solve his problems against left-handed pitching; the O's must either clean up his entire approach from the right side or make him give up switch-hitting.

4. Zach Stewart, RHP, from Cincinnati to Toronto: Stewart sits in the mid-90s with great sink on his fastball -- he's given up just three home runs in 124 pro innings -- and has a slider as a potential out pitch. He's already in Triple-A in his first full pro season and could make his debut later this year if the Jays are willing to put him on the 40-man roster.

5. Aaron Poreda, LHP, from Chicago White Sox to San Diego: Poreda has a plus fastball with plus movement but lacks an average second pitch. He could pitch in the Padres' bullpen right away.

6. Josh Roenicke, RHP, from Cincinnati to Toronto: The son of former big league outfielder Gary Roenicke, Josh has a big arm with a plus slider of his own, with more velocity but less fastball life than Stewart. One of these two arms acquired for Scott Rolen should end up Toronto's closer in the next few years.

7. Jason Knapp, RHP, from Philadelphia to Cleveland: Knapp has a big arm and a violent delivery; he's had great success as an 18-year-old in full-season ball, but is currently on the shelf with minor shoulder fatigue.

8. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, from Philadelphia to Cleveland: Carrasco has had success in the minor leagues without a plus pitch, although on a good day he will show three average pitches. The Phillies had soured on Carrasco's makeup, allowing Cleveland to pick him up as a distressed asset.

9. Tim Alderson, RHP, from San Francisco to Pittsburgh: Alderson, a former first-rounder, has outstanding command of three pitches, but his velocity is two grades below where it was in high school, and there's a chance he's only a fifth starter.

10. Bryan Price, RHP, from Boston to Cleveland: Price is in his first full pro year and his first year as a starter after he was an infrequently used reliever and spot starter at Rice; he has the stuff to pitch in the middle of a big league rotation but has been hit around some in high-A and he has already thrown more innings this year than he did in all of 2008, including his collegiate work.

BRM
08-03-2009, 12:32 PM
Wallace is the only impact prospect among all minor leaguers who changed hands in the past two weeks

I think a lot of folks here will disagree with that statement.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 12:32 PM
We gave up 2 of the top 6 for Rolen and Phillies gave up 7 and 8th for Lee. What could have been.

princeton
08-03-2009, 12:38 PM
We gave up 2 of the top 6 for Rolen and Phillies gave up 7 and 8th for Lee. What could have been.

good observation. I like White Sox heist best though. I've always said that Kenny Williams is a hedgehog.

LincolnparkRed
08-03-2009, 12:49 PM
good observation. I like White Sox heist best though. I've always said that Kenny Williams is a hedgehog.

Even worse, the Phils gave up an injured pitcher and one that is kinds blah from his description

SoTxRedsFan
08-03-2009, 12:56 PM
#2 and #4 pitching prospect to be traded and we got Scott Freaking Rolen.


Awful!

corkedbat
08-03-2009, 01:37 PM
I believe the Indians received 11 prospects back in the deals they made prior to the deadline (including the Lee and VMart deals). According to this, both prospects we gave ( up were better than all but one of the 11 they received and we threw in EdE to boot!. For what? A a 1yr rental of a 3B with declining numbers and dubious health who will not help this team compete for anything meaningful. A total, inexcusable waste. Jocketty should be roasted on a stake at home plate. What could we have added to those two for Cliff Lee or a SS?

LincolnparkRed
08-03-2009, 01:56 PM
I believe the Indians received 11 prospects back in the deals they made prior to the deadline (including the Lee and VMart deals). According to this, both prospects we gave ( up were better than all but one of the 11 they received and we threw in EdE to boot!. For what? A a 1yr rental of a 3B with declining numbers and dubious health who will not help this team compete for anything meaningful. A total, inexcusable waste. Jocketty should be roasted on a stake at home plate. What could we have added to those two for Cliff Lee or a SS?

dude we already have a shortstop. Alex Gonzalez is back, what more could we need.

corkedbat
08-03-2009, 02:01 PM
dude we already have a shortstop. Alex Gonzalez is back, what more could we need.

Naw, AGon can fill the LF hole. :D

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 02:07 PM
#2 and #4 pitching prospect to be traded and we got Scott Freaking Rolen.


Awful!

I wonder if, on PadresZone.com back in 2005 there was an uproar about trading two of their top-10 prospects for Joe Randa.

Anyone seen Travis Chick (4th best prospect, per BA in '05) or Justin Germano (7th best prospcet, per BA in '05) recently?

GIDP
08-03-2009, 02:11 PM
I wonder if, on PadresZone.com back in 2005 there was an uproar about trading two of their top-10 pitching prospects for Joe Randa.

Anyone seen Travis Chick or Justin Germano recently?

I think the point is we what we got for what they gave up compared to what other teams got for what they gave up.

Superdude
08-03-2009, 02:14 PM
Anyone seen Travis Chick (4th best prospect, per BA in '05) or Justin Germano (7th best prospcet, per BA in '05) recently?

How was the Padres system back then? Germano was a soft tossing right hander and Chick threw decently hard without any results if I remember correctly.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 02:18 PM
too many people view #1s from one system to be the same as #1s from other systems also. Its not a 1:1 ratio.

Doc. Scott
08-03-2009, 02:18 PM
How was the Padres system back then? Germano was a soft tossing right hander and Chick threw decently hard without any results if I remember correctly.

Chick is still in Double-A all these years later- he's reliving his own personal Groundhog Day on a bus in the Confederacy.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 02:25 PM
too many people view #1s from one system to be the same as #1s from other systems also. Its not a 1:1 ratio.

Of course it's not, but the point is that these kids are all prospects -- equally as likely to be selling insurance 4 years from now as the next guy.

You can sit and be paralyzed by what if -- what if this kid becomes a star, what if that kid becomes a star, what if I trade the next Curt Schilling, what if I hold onto him and he gets rocked by real hitters and loses his value -- or you can go run a franchise.

I'm sick of the Reds getting crummy prospects from teams, and holding onto "can't miss" guys only to see them crap the bed in the bigs. These guys are commodities to be bought and sold and are only worth what they can contribute to the big-league team in terms of Wins and Losses / Runs-Scored and Runs-Prevented. Getting attached to them is mistake #1, assuming continued success through the development process is mistake #2, and hording them in the hope of building a championship team entirely made of 20-somethings mistake #3.

Scouts like Stewart. Scouts have liked lots of guys the Reds have acquired over the years (fun fact -- saying a guy projects to a "#3/#4 starter" is scout-speak for "I have no clue what the hell this guy is going to do"). Scouts have liked a lot of guys traded over the years. Anyone want to go back and do the math as to how often the scouts were right? I'm guessing that number is less than 100%.

I'm not saying it's a good deal or a bad deal. It's a deal. Let it play out before you draw and quarter the guy making it.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 02:37 PM
So your only take is that prospects dont pan out so who cares if we are selling ours off for less than other people are? I think the problem most people have is that when you trade something you should get fair value for them in return. I think people see what others were giving up and then saw what we were getting in comparison and are kinda upset about it, especially considering where we are in the grande scheme of things. We havent even got into the discussion about how we didnt have anyone else bidding for Rolen or that he had a no trade clause that unless he was coming back to the midwest he probably wouldnt have oked.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 02:43 PM
So your only take is that prospects dont pan out so who cares if we are selling ours off for less than other people are? I think the problem most people have is that when you trade something you should get fair value for them in return.

And my response we be that we can go round-n-round about what "fair value" is for a prospect. Fair value is what the market values a particular prospect at. As I said, Cleveland/Oakland/Whoever might not have liked Stewart -- teams have different things they look for. Maybe they didn't like his mechanics. Maybe they thought he wouldn't make it as a starter because of his secondary offerings. Who knows. For that reason, I say it's foolhardy to chide a team for not making a "better deal."

Further, you have to consider that we sent salary BACK to Toronto in the form of Edwin Encarnacion (arguably even worse salary than Rolen, since Encarnacion has no natural position in the infield and can't hit enough to DH or play OF) AND received cash with the deal for Rolen. That probably necessitated sending more value to the Jays than would've been the case if we had taken Rolen straight out. I have to imagine that the price for Rolen would've been significantly less if the Reds had been willing to assume his entire 2009 + 2010 salary obligations.

mac624
08-03-2009, 02:51 PM
I think some are forgetting that we also got 6 million back from Toronto as well as Rolen, so that is why Stewart was in the trade. Doesn't make it that much easier to swallow I'm sure, but that's the justification of it.

I don't know, I hated losing Stewart, but I'm not not that disappointed as most here. I guess I'm still a glass is half full kind of guy.

BEETTLEBUG
08-03-2009, 02:54 PM
How do you it was 6 mil didn't public knew that!

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:00 PM
So what everyone is saying about Edwin is that Walt had to cover up his mistake by adding in good prospects. You guys are saying Edwin lowered the value of the deal. Doesnt make my view of Walt after this much better from my POV.

I cant wait for Yonder to be included in a deal with Arroyo just so someone will take more of his contract.

joshnky
08-03-2009, 03:09 PM
I cant wait for Yonder to be included in a deal with Arroyo just so someone will take more of his contract.

Because that is exactly the same. Last November Redszone rated the system as follows:


Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart
Prospect #18 - Matt Maloney

Now Stewart certainly flew up the charts this year after he became a starter but there is no guarantee he will succeed. Few people saw this level of success coming and it may be that the Reds FO doubted that he could continue it so they sold high on him. Possibly, the move to AAA and the bull pen was more about preserving his trade value than it was limiting his innings.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:11 PM
Last november we had like 30 inning of Stewart in low a ball when we thought he was only going to be a reliever.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 03:12 PM
So what everyone is saying about Edwin is that Walt had to cover up his mistake by adding in good prospects. You guys are saying Edwin lowered the value of the deal. Doesnt make my view of Walt after this much better from my POV.

No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:15 PM
No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

So should we fell better about how badly he tosses prospects into deals? Is he going to put Sulbaran in a deal to trade Taveras off next? Its just bad baseball when you are so cheap you have to sell prospects off for nothing but a few million dollars. Its not like we are getting Rolen for cheap.

HokieRed
08-03-2009, 03:20 PM
No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

Trading can be more complex than this. Would we have made EE more movable by giving him a lower contract, thereby suggesting we don't think he's really all that valuable? I doubt it. If EE's going to be anything like a chip in a deal of the kind we made, he's got to be paid what is perceived to be fairly, otherwise it's a real red flag. I'm not saying Walt masterminded this all in advance, but only that you've got to be careful to pay guys what makes it look like they're being treated fairly. Unfortunately, as far as WT goes, I'm afraid there's no number that wouldn't set off a red flag as being too high. Only realistic thing to hope for there is that next year he sits out a quiet year as the 5th outfielder.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:22 PM
BTW when people pull up these prospect list and say he wasnt on it in november I would like to remind them that Jay Bruce was only 76 in the BA list a year after he was drafted. Lots can change in just a short time.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 03:23 PM
So should we fell better about how badly he tosses prospects into deals? Is he going to put Sulbaran in a deal to trade Taveras off next? Its just bad baseball when you are so cheap you have to sell prospects off for nothing but a few million dollars. Its not like we are getting Rolen for cheap.

I'm going to wade out of this conversation, because we're talking in circles.

You have to be honest about what you're dealing with -- they're all prospects. They're commodities to be bought and sold, and if you start getting attached to them based on the team that controls the team they happen to be playing for, you've already lost your objectivity about what they are. You keep some, you sell some, you hope you keep the right ones. The only foolhardy strategies that you can follow are holding onto all of them or selling all of them.

At the end of the day, Zach Stewart was one dude among many who are in the Reds minor league system. They've still got lots of talent floating around. They'll survive this loss, I'm sure.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:25 PM
I'm not Keith Law but im guessing he lost his objectivity also considering its his list and not mine.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2009, 03:27 PM
I'm not Keith Law but im guessing he lost his objectivity also considering its his list and not mine.

It's a list of top players traded at the deadline -- a subset of a subset in an already inexact science.

Trust me, you shouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 03:30 PM
It's a list of top players traded at the deadline -- a subset of a subset in an already inexact science.

Trust me, you shouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.

Nice recovery... I guess.

joshnky
08-03-2009, 03:43 PM
Nice recovery... I guess.

Quality. Time to update the ignore list.

TRF
08-03-2009, 04:33 PM
CE, my problem is Walt over paid for a guy that was traded for Troy Glaus, what, a year ago? He gave up two of the Reds top 10 (likely) prospects and starting 3B for a guy with declining skills and health issues. He didn't touch the areas of serious need CF, SS, and ignored his growing SP problems. He also traded some SP depth, for a guy that offensively is not an upgrade to EE, though defensively he's obviously superior.

I agree that not every prospect makes it, but there was no need to take on 11 mil in salary next year for a 35 year old 3B, especially when you have so many other holes to fill.

GIDP
08-03-2009, 04:34 PM
Not only did he trade Stewart he did it while knowing Volquez was going to have surgery today. It's just confusing all around.

bubbachunk
08-03-2009, 04:40 PM
Because that is exactly the same. Last November Redszone rated the system as follows:



Now Stewart certainly flew up the charts this year after he became a starter but there is no guarantee he will succeed. Few people saw this level of success coming and it may be that the Reds FO doubted that he could continue it so they sold high on him. Possibly, the move to AAA and the bull pen was more about preserving his trade value than it was limiting his innings.

Yes because value of a #2 or 3 starting pitcher >>>> bullpen arm

Kingspoint
08-03-2009, 05:31 PM
CE, my problem is Walt over paid for a guy that was traded for Troy Glaus, what, a year ago? He gave up two of the Reds top 10 (likely) prospects and starting 3B for a guy with declining skills and health issues. He didn't touch the areas of serious need CF, SS, and ignored his growing SP problems. He also traded some SP depth, for a guy that offensively is not an upgrade to EE, though defensively he's obviously superior.

I agree that not every prospect makes it, but there was no need to take on 11 mil in salary next year for a 35 year old 3B, especially when you have so many other holes to fill.

It's the worse trade of players for players that I've ever seen.

osuceltic
08-03-2009, 05:40 PM
It's the worse trade of players for players that I've ever seen.

I'm not sure if this post of dougdirt's guarantee that Stewart would win a Cy Young is the winner of the Most Outrageous Hyperbole Award this year. Too close to call.

At least we don't overvalue Reds prospects around here.

And by the way ... Keith Law's list doesn't matter. What matters is how the various organizations (and the Reds) rank these guys. And we don't know that.

TRF
08-03-2009, 05:48 PM
doug does tend to overvalue reds prospects, but he's not wrong on this.

Jan. 14 2008, Rolen was traded to Toronto for Troy Glaus.

Glaus has never been considered a good fielder, though he's probably better than EE. So why is Rolen now worth three players to a team that isn't going to contend this year, or next if the holes at SS and CF and SP aren't filled? Especially when one of those holes, SP, could potentially have been filled by Stewart ala Cueto in 2008?

dumb trade.

Brutus
08-04-2009, 12:04 AM
doug does tend to overvalue reds prospects, but he's not wrong on this.

Jan. 14 2008, Rolen was traded to Toronto for Troy Glaus.

Glaus has never been considered a good fielder, though he's probably better than EE. So why is Rolen now worth three players to a team that isn't going to contend this year, or next if the holes at SS and CF and SP aren't filled? Especially when one of those holes, SP, could potentially have been filled by Stewart ala Cueto in 2008?

dumb trade.

Hm.

Troy Glaus was traded at 31. In the four years since the 'prime' age of 27, prior to being traded, he OPS'd 930, 885, 868 and 839.

I think it goes without saying that a Rolen-for-Glaus deal was pretty even and should not have necessitated any additional players.

VR
08-04-2009, 02:00 AM
Have Stewart/ Roenicke got any pt yet?

Mario-Rijo
08-04-2009, 02:39 AM
I'm not sure if this post of dougdirt's guarantee that Stewart would win a Cy Young is the winner of the Most Outrageous Hyperbole Award this year. Too close to call.

At least we don't overvalue Reds prospects around here.

And by the way ... Keith Law's list doesn't matter. What matters is how the various organizations (and the Reds) rank these guys. And we don't know that.

I'm not sure I am reading you right here, let me start there so if I am my apologies for misunderstanding.

But I do want to put a myth to bed about a thing or 2. #1 My dissatisfaction with the deal has little to do with how Doug views them and although I only speak for myself on it I think many others would tell you the same. Now does Dougs reports on a player sway my opinion about a guy, sure it does he sees them and I agree with his philosophy about how to value a prospect (i.e. stats/scouting reports). He also speaks to scouts and others who have valuable facts and opinions. I take all facts I can get from Doug and others about players and to a small extent I may take some folks opinions as well. I combine those things with what what I know about a player already. And that is how I have arrived to Stewarts worth (as well as other prospects). So let's not blame Doug for the disappointment others have shown for this deal.

Secondly let's try to look at this deal objectively, let's just forget the names a second. Trading away a kid who throws 2 plus pitches (one of which is a mid 90's sinking Fastball) , showing the feel for another average or better pitch, the aptitude/feel for pitching, with command and control who has shown the ability to maintain his velocity late into games consistently for a guy who although makes us better in the short term has a history of breaking down is 34 and not hitting for power anymore straight up is a bad deal. You simply don't trade arms like that for anything short of something impactful and fairly long term. Forget the rest of the deal that right there is the problem in a nutshell. Evrything else is just gravy. This is eerily reminiscent of the Dan Haren deal only that time Walt at least in theory got a potential impact LHP in his early prime.

I think most of us will eventually move on and understand there is nothing that will change that deal. However this is just another critical mistake in what is becoming a long line of them. That IMO started with relieving Mackanin and then Krivsky of their jobs and why, public relations just like this Rolen deal. Got to keep those buts in the seats even if it means dropping talent left and right.

Mario-Rijo
08-04-2009, 02:40 AM
Have Stewart/ Roenicke got any pt yet?

I think Roenicke has and looked pretty good I believe. 1 IP and 2 K's IIRC.

TheNext44
08-04-2009, 04:38 AM
This was stated before, but let me re-emphasis...

THIS IS KEITH LAW TALKING!!!

Why are we listening to him?

He raked the Reds over the coals on the Hamilton/Volquez deal because the thought that Volquez would never be more than a middle reliever.

He said that the Reds pick of Cozart was the worst 2nd round pick that year because he will never be anything other than a light hitting utility guy.

I could go on forever with some of the misreadings that Law has made since joining ESPN. Just like Steve Phillips, there's a reason why he is working in journalism and not for a major league team. His rankings mean squat to me.

mth123
08-04-2009, 06:09 AM
Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

Edd Roush
08-04-2009, 07:21 AM
Is he going to put Sulbaran in a deal to trade Taveras off next?

If Walt gave Votto away to get rid of Taveras I might be alright with it. Haha, I know I'm exxagerating but .276 for a lead-off man in August? How is that even possible?

TRF
08-04-2009, 09:04 AM
Hm.

Troy Glaus was traded at 31. In the four years since the 'prime' age of 27, prior to being traded, he OPS'd 930, 885, 868 and 839.

I think it goes without saying that a Rolen-for-Glaus deal was pretty even and should not have necessitated any additional players.

He was a butcher defensively. Maybe better than EE, but if so, not by much. He does have more power than EE, but I think last year showed EE's power is coming, freak injury or no.

EE and Roenicke, maybe. All three? Overpaying.

bucksfan2
08-04-2009, 09:28 AM
doug does tend to overvalue reds prospects, but he's not wrong on this.

Jan. 14 2008, Rolen was traded to Toronto for Troy Glaus.

Glaus has never been considered a good fielder, though he's probably better than EE. So why is Rolen now worth three players to a team that isn't going to contend this year, or next if the holes at SS and CF and SP aren't filled? Especially when one of those holes, SP, could potentially have been filled by Stewart ala Cueto in 2008?

dumb trade.

Who cares who was traded for who before the fact? Should we discount Scott Kasmir because of who he was traded for? Should we discount Brandon Phillips because he was claimed off waivers?

kpresidente
08-04-2009, 09:37 AM
It's not just that we overpaid, which we did, it's that you could have accomplished the same thing with Beltre for nothing but money. Especially given that Jocketty talked about extending Rolen.

TRF
08-04-2009, 10:21 AM
Who cares who was traded for who before the fact? Should we discount Scott Kasmir because of who he was traded for? Should we discount Brandon Phillips because he was claimed off waivers?

huh?

Discount Kazmir? Hell yes! The Mets way overpaid to get Victor freaking Zambrano. Everyone in baseball knew the Mets were overpaying. BP was DFA'd. Did the Reds overpay to get him? No. One minor league reliever, Jeff Stevens.

Aside from the fact that offensively, EE and Rolen have been comparable over the prior two seasons, Stewart AND Roenicke? Roenicke who had already reached the major league level, and had success? Stewart on the cusp?

blech.

blumj
08-04-2009, 10:34 AM
I think the Glaus thing is kind of a red herring. That guy, when healthy, had the type of bat that makes people a little weak in the knees, and the circumstances of that trade were unusual.

Caveat Emperor
08-04-2009, 12:32 PM
4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

The way he's playing, the only way you get Willy off this team is if you pay his salary -- either via trade + cash or a straight DFA. Who would want him?

As far as Stewart -- let's keep things in perspective. He had a good year. Lots of prospects have had good years and still never amounted to anything. It's a good sign, but it's by no means a guarantee of anything in the future.

M2
08-04-2009, 06:10 PM
Keith Law always looks like he's about cry.

He's also never ahead of the curve on any prospect. All he ever does is tell you who's doing well.

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 07:13 PM
Hm.

Troy Glaus was traded at 31. In the four years since the 'prime' age of 27, prior to being traded, he OPS'd 930, 885, 868 and 839.

I think it goes without saying that a Rolen-for-Glaus deal was pretty even and should not have necessitated any additional players.

That looks like a stead decline to me. Pretty similar to Rolen's decline, accept for the fluke year he's having this year, when every aging player has "one fluke year as they decline, then the decline continues as if they hadn't had the fluke year".

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 07:17 PM
This was stated before, but let me re-emphasis...

THIS IS KEITH LAW TALKING!!!

Why are we listening to him?

He raked the Reds over the coals on the Hamilton/Volquez deal because the thought that Volquez would never be more than a middle reliever.

He said that the Reds pick of Cozart was the worst 2nd round pick that year because he will never be anything other than a light hitting utility guy.

I could go on forever with some of the misreadings that Law has made since joining ESPN. Just like Steve Phillips, there's a reason why he is working in journalism and not for a major league team. His rankings mean squat to me.

That is true.

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 07:20 PM
Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

Making sense apparently isn't an option for Castellini any more since the day he brought in Baker. Your post makes nothing but sense, common sense.

What's so frustrating, is that any Tom, Dick, or Harry can see what you're saying here, so it goes to say that the reasons for doing what the REDS did defies logic, and there must be some other reason(s) for doing so, reason(s) that have nothing to do with giving the franchise an opportunity to win a World Series.

There's no argument that makes sense that disputes the fact that the franchise took about 5 steps (or 3 years) backwards when making this deal, for all of the reasons that you stated above. We should have been competing for a playoff spot in 2010, and a World Series appearance in 2011, and now we won't see this franchise win a playoff series for at least 5 seasons, and there's no reason to believe they will win one anytime after that as there is this ship is clearly adrift at this point. Who here can tell us now what the master plan is? I could before the trade, but not now.

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 07:30 PM
Since it was brought up...the Cordero signing was questionable. An expensive closer is the last piece of the pie one gets to win a Championship. The REDS could say that he was acquired to secure the bullpen that had been so shaky for so long. Isn't that what the bullpen coach is supposed to do? Why pay that much for someone who plays so little?

Is Rolen supposed to do the same thing? Will everyone all of a sudden hit better because Rolen is on the team? Not a chance. That's not how hitting works. Pitching may be effected that way, but hitting never does, not over the course of a season, anyway.

Kingspoint
08-04-2009, 07:38 PM
If this was a business that operates the way the rest of the world does and the CEO traded away a young executive (EE) with several years of experience, who excelled at 3/4th's of his job (the Offense probably measures 3 times what the Defense does), and who will only get better, another executive who has been outstanding since his arrival and has Greenwich, CT pedigree (Josh Roenicke, son of Gary Roenicke), and another, about to become an executive trainee, newly graduated from Harvard Law School (Zach Stewart), for an aged executive who had trouble closing deals three years in a row except for a resurgance this season, but who is clearly declining in his skills and missing work all the time, and is extremely overpaid, that CEO would be berated by not only his board of executives, but by everyone in the entire organization. Everyone would be wondering what the direction of the company was, and they would wonder who's sleeping with whom.

kaldaniels
08-04-2009, 11:41 PM
If this was a business that operates the way the rest of the world does and the CEO traded away a young executive (EE) with several years of experience, who excelled at 3/4th's of his job (the Offense probably measures 3 times what the Defense does), and who will only get better, another executive who has been outstanding since his arrival and has Greenwich, CT pedigree (Josh Roenicke, son of Gary Roenicke), and another, about to become an executive trainee, newly graduated from Harvard Law School (Zach Stewart), for an aged executive who had trouble closing deals three years in a row except for a resurgance this season, but who is clearly declining in his skills and missing work all the time, and is extremely overpaid, that CEO would be berated by not only his board of executives, but by everyone in the entire organization. Everyone would be wondering what the direction of the company was, and they would wonder who's sleeping with whom.

You lost me when you stated EE will only get better. That statement alone makes your premise false.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-04-2009, 11:59 PM
Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

I just....love this post.

OnBaseMachine
08-05-2009, 12:03 PM
John Manuel of Baseball America rated Zach Stewart as the second best prospect traded at the deadline. Number one was Brett Wallace.

Kingspoint
08-06-2009, 09:11 PM
You lost me when you stated EE will only get better. That statement alone makes your premise false.

He will only get better because he's 26.

Rare is the player who gets worse from 26 to 27 and 28.

Newman4
08-13-2009, 01:10 PM
Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

Very nice post mth123. You sum up my thoughts much more competently than I ever could. I have to agree with GIDP on the prospects argument. All prospects are dynamic commodities, however they do have value with respect to each other. I have posted on another article which ranks both Stewart and Roenicke in the top 10 of all prospects traded. It also says it was a bad deal for Cincinnati. Small market teams need to have a soild direction and there is little room for error in personnel due to financial constraints. Obviously, front office management is betting their financial resources on Rolen, Harang, Arroyo and Cordero to the tune of at least $40 million dollars next year.

Hoosier Red
08-14-2009, 01:49 PM
He will only get better because he's 26.

Rare is the player who gets worse from 26 to 27 and 28.

Shouldn't he show some signs of improvement from ages 24-25-26. His defense was never going to be good enough and if you moved his bat it went from good enough to meh.

Now granted, the Reds could use some Meh as opposed to Blah, but there's not a lot of evidence to suggest he could only get better. There's plenty of evidence to suggest he'd maintain his current production perhaps, but him getting better wasn't exactly set in stone.