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Gallen5862
08-03-2009, 06:30 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/




Rays Release Wade Townsend

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [August 3 at 12:18pm CST]
Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times*reports that the Rays released former first round pick Wade Townsend. The 26-year-old righty has struggled with injuries since the Rays selected him 8th overall in 2005. He pitched poorly in limited action at Rookie ball this year and never put together an impressive season in the minors. The Rays chose Townsend when Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Jacoby Ellsbury were available, but they do have Matt Garza, who the Twins selected in the first round that year.

Gallen5862
08-03-2009, 06:34 PM
Would he be worth picking up? What kind of contract would you offer? What type injuries has he had?

KoryMac5
08-03-2009, 08:11 PM
Guy was a ticking time bomb when he was drafted as he was used and abused at Rice. He has had some major work done, TJ surgery and shoulder surgery and his mechanics are a mess. I know TB was converting him to a relief role when he was released. Rumor has it he may retire but you never know.

flyer85
08-03-2009, 09:21 PM
why? Reds are trading very good arms for an over the hill 3b, they must have a surplus.

jojo
08-03-2009, 10:12 PM
I really do think ORGsters have jumped the shark with their characterization of Rolen as over the hill.

He is exceeding projections for his bat this season but not so dramatically that one should be surprised or shocked (projected wOBA=.343; actual wOBA= .362). His defense has been exceptional once again. Looking at his offensive peripherals, there really aren't ominous signs of decline being masked by a lucky BABIP.

This "over the hill" thirdsacker is on pace to be a 3.6 win player assuming he only logs 500 PAs this season.

Next season he should reasonably be expected to be a 3 win player assuming only 450 PAs. He might be even more-it wouldn't be outlandish. This is especially so given he's moved to a better hitter's environment, an easier league/division and essentially is about as close to home as he'll get in a uni.

People can ask, "But what about the other 150-200 PAs?" when arguing against Rolen. Well, it's important to remember that Rolen may actually get some of those and that EE projects to only be a 2.5 win player at best and that is if he played the whole season. In other words, "part-time" Rolen + warm body is a significant upgrade at third over EE.

Yes, the Reds gave up a couple of relief pitchers for the right to pay Rolen something akin to what he'd be worth on the open market. But they bought wins with the money. It looks like Rolen will cost roughly $5M more than what the Reds would've paid EE.

The Reds had precious little payroll wiggle room before Rolen. Free agency probably wasn't going to be the route they were going to take to improve the club before Rolen.

The Reds were going to have to shed payroll to spend big in December regardless. Nothing really has changed other than they have likely locked in a significant improvement already.

flyer85
08-03-2009, 10:22 PM
it is not at all unusual for a player in his mid 30s to have a much better than expected season (last time he was this kind of player was 2006). Does this mean that the Reds got the new Rolen? Or are they more likely to get the 2007-08 version in terms of PT and performance?

What are the Reds counting on? What are they likely to get?

The Reds may have only traded two relief pitchers ... however they may well be the two best arms in the organization.

jojo
08-03-2009, 10:31 PM
it is not at all unusual for a player in his mid 30s to have a much better than expected season (last time he was this kind of player was 2006). Does this mean that the Reds got the new Rolen? Or are they more likely to get the 2007-08 version in terms of PT and performance?

What are the Reds counting on? What are they likely to get?

Sure players have age curves. The effect of aging is considered in Rolen's projections.

Rolen is projected to produce a wOBA of .345 over the rest of the season without taking his move to GABP into account.

I suspect the Reds expect they are likely to get an above average bat and an above average glove who probably will give them something close to 115-125 games.

In short, they expect they've dramatically improved an area of need.
It's a reasonable expectation based upon projection systems that consider the effect of aging.

Crosley68
08-03-2009, 10:53 PM
I really do think ORGsters have jumped the shark with their characterization of Rolen as over the hill.

He is exceeding projections for his bat this season but not so dramatically that one should be surprised or shocked (projected wOBA=.343; actual wOBA= .362). His defense has been exceptional once again. Looking at his offensive peripherals, there really aren't ominous signs of decline being masked by a lucky BABIP.

This "over the hill" thirdsacker is on pace to be a 3.6 win player assuming he only logs 500 PAs this season.

Next season he should reasonably be expected to be a 3 win player assuming only 450 PAs. He might be even more-it wouldn't be outlandish. This is especially so given he's moved to a better hitter's environment, an easier league/division and essentially is about as close to home as he'll get in a uni.

People can ask, "But what about the other 150-200 PAs?" when arguing against Rolen. Well, it's important to remember that Rolen may actually get some of those and that EE projects to only be a 2.5 win player at best and that is if he played the whole season. In other words, "part-time" Rolen + warm body is a significant upgrade at third over EE.

Yes, the Reds gave up a couple of relief pitchers for the right to pay Rolen something akin to what he'd be worth on the open market. But they bought wins with the money. It looks like Rolen will cost roughly $5M more than what the Reds would've paid EE.

The Reds had precious little payroll wiggle room before Rolen. Free agency probably wasn't going to be the route they were going to take to improve the club before Rolen.

The Reds were going to have to shed payroll to spend big in December regardless. Nothing really has changed other than they have likely locked in a significant improvement already.

You are correct......many will not allow the facts to get in the way of their frustrated rant.

Raisor
08-04-2009, 12:28 AM
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