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TheNext44
08-03-2009, 11:37 PM
Everyone is wondering what is wrong with Aaron Harang.

His peripherals looks the same as when he was leading the league in K's and Wins. He's throwing as hard as ever.

What's the problem? Why is he giving up more runs and losing more games?

My theory is based on a new stat that Bill Peterson invented, and that I think should be what is used to evaluate all pitchers.

The stat is TPI, or Terds Per Inning.

Basically most major league pitchers have the similar stuff. I mean really, look at Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. They both throw hard, they both have good movement on their offspeed pitches, and most of the time, they have similar results.

In over 90% of both their pitches, they look unhittable, they fool or blow away the hitter. But every now and then, they throw up a terd. A pitch that even Willy Taveras can crush.

Cueto so far this year has thrown far fewer terds per inning than Bailey, and thus, his ERA is much lower.

I think this stat makes sense. Heck, even Mike Lincoln looked unhittable most of the time, but too often this year, he floated up a terd and it got crushed.

I think this is Harang's problem lately. In his first few years as a Red, he had a great PTI, maybe 1.0 or lower. If you only throw about one an inning not much damage can be done.

But lately, it seems to have risen to somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. And to make matters worse, most of them are in one or two innings, so he gets an inning with 4 or 5 terds. That means that he likely is throwing up terds with men on base, which is killer, and the main reason why he is giving up so many runs.

Anyway that's my theory, and I hope to expound on this new stat and the many issues behind it in the future.

Brutus
08-03-2009, 11:40 PM
Everyone is wondering what is wrong with Aaron Harang.

His peripherals looks the same as when he was leading the league in K's and Wins. He's throwing as hard as ever.

What's the problem? Why is he giving up more runs and losing more games?

My theory is based on a new stat that Bill Peterson invented, and that I think should be what is used to evaluate all pitchers.

The stat is TPI, or Terds Per Inning.

Basically most major league pitchers have the similar stuff. I mean really, look at Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. They both throw hard, they both have good movement on their offspeed pitches, and most of the time, they have similar results.

In over 90% of both their pitches, they look unhittable, they fool or blow away the hitter. But every now and then, they throw up a terd. A pitch that even Willy Taveras can crush.

Cueto so far this year has thrown far fewer terds per inning than Bailey, and thus, his ERA is much lower.

I think this stat makes sense. Heck, even Mike Lincoln looked unhittable most of the time, but too often this year, he floated up a terd and it got crushed.

I think this is Harang's problem lately. In his first few years as a Red, he had a great PTI, maybe 1.0 or lower. If you only throw about one an inning not much damage can be done.

But lately, it seems to have risen to somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. And to make matters worse, most of them are in one or two innings, so he gets an inning with 4 or 5 terds. That means that he likely is throwing up terds with men on base, which is killer, and the main reason why he is giving up so many runs.

Anyway that's my theory, and I hope to expound on this new stat and the many issues behind it in the future.

Society now tells us that it's always someone's fault. There's always someone to blame. Look around at everything that happens in business, politics or the news. Everything is followed by a "how did this happen? Why did this happen?" There always has to be someone to pin blame on.

The TPI theory cannot be correct, because then it absolves blame from Dusty, the organization and Bud Selig.

Will M
08-03-2009, 11:52 PM
I suspect our starting pitchers are having a tough time keeping focused lately. we lose near every game and the offense has been beyond terrible. it would be hard to bear down and focus every pitch knowing that you will lose anyway.

StillFunkyB
08-03-2009, 11:56 PM
Everyone is wondering what is wrong with Aaron Harang.

His peripherals looks the same as when he was leading the league in K's and Wins. He's throwing as hard as ever.

What's the problem? Why is he giving up more runs and losing more games?

My theory is based on a new stat that Bill Peterson invented, and that I think should be what is used to evaluate all pitchers.

The stat is TPI, or Terds Per Inning.

Basically most major league pitchers have the similar stuff. I mean really, look at Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. They both throw hard, they both have good movement on their offspeed pitches, and most of the time, they have similar results.

In over 90% of both their pitches, they look unhittable, they fool or blow away the hitter. But every now and then, they throw up a terd. A pitch that even Willy Taveras can crush.

Cueto so far this year has thrown far fewer terds per inning than Bailey, and thus, his ERA is much lower.

I think this stat makes sense. Heck, even Mike Lincoln looked unhittable most of the time, but too often this year, he floated up a terd and it got crushed.

I think this is Harang's problem lately. In his first few years as a Red, he had a great PTI, maybe 1.0 or lower. If you only throw about one an inning not much damage can be done.

But lately, it seems to have risen to somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. And to make matters worse, most of them are in one or two innings, so he gets an inning with 4 or 5 terds. That means that he likely is throwing up terds with men on base, which is killer, and the main reason why he is giving up so many runs.

Anyway that's my theory, and I hope to expound on this new stat and the many issues behind it in the future.

No offense, but IMHO this just seems like a round about way of saying he is pitching like crap. :)

Kc61
08-03-2009, 11:59 PM
Harang's GO/FO rate has changed dramatically over the years. He used to have slight ground ball tendencies. Now he has definite fly ball tendencies.

Fly ball pitchers at GABP often don't do very well. Harang just gives up too many home runs.

wheels
08-04-2009, 12:06 AM
Society now tells us that it's always someone's fault. There's always someone to blame. Look around at everything that happens in business, politics or the news. Everything is followed by a "how did this happen? Why did this happen?" There always has to be someone to pin blame on.

The TPI theory cannot be correct, because then it absolves blame from Dusty, the organization and Bud Selig.


As far as I'm concerned, there is no such thing as society.

Either Arron gives up gophers, or he doesn't. It's on him.

If Harang's a member of the ptiching staff for the time being, I'm comfortable with his ability to figure it out.

Or he's toast. But it's on him.

Dusty doesn't go out and pitch for him, and Jocketty doesn't lace up his spikes.

RANDY IN INDY
08-04-2009, 08:24 AM
Leaving fastballs up in the strikezone. Not consistently finishing his fastball, and it gets whacked. Still, 10 strikeouts last night. Not bad for a guy who is a little out of whack. The offense, as is, has no shot of winning a baseball game. That gets in a guy's head when he is on the mound.

Edd Roush
08-04-2009, 08:33 AM
I for one thought Harang had a pretty good outing last night. I agree that Harang threw up a terd that became a three-run jack, but the singles to Soriano and Bradley were decent pitcher's pitches. Of course Harang should have been lifted before the 8th, but Dusty thought Harang was going to help out his stat lines too much, so he left him in there.

To go off of the point made earlier about run support effecting a pitcher's demeanor, I thought it was startling in the stat FSN showed about how the five pitchers with the least run support on the NL all came from five different teams.

RANDY IN INDY
08-04-2009, 08:41 AM
Pitchers are going to make a few mistakes in a game. When your offense has no chance of overcoming a couple of mistakes, it makes you try to be perfect and I really believe that takes the life off of some of your pitches. Harang's lack of finish on his fastball has been a problem most of the season, as well. For a big guy, he really doesn't use his body a lot. In spite of his problems this season, I, too, believe that he pitched very well last night.

Reds Freak
08-04-2009, 09:24 AM
Pitchers are going to make a few mistakes in a game. When your offense has no chance of overcoming a couple of mistakes, it makes you try to be perfect and I really believe that takes the life off of some of your pitches. Harang's lack of finish on his fastball has been a problem most of the season, as well. For a big guy, he really doesn't use his body a lot. In spite of his problems this season, I, too, believe that he pitched very well last night.

Hershiser made a good point last night on the ESPN broadcast. He talked about how Harang has that short stride but doesn't get out in front of his front leg, or like you said he isn't finishing his pitches. This is great for his slider which he made Cubs hitters look foolish last night. But when he throws the fastball without finish it is flat and very hittable. IIRC, most of the hard hit balls last night off Harang were all on fastballs, I don't remember any solid contact off his off-speed...

hebroncougar
08-04-2009, 09:29 AM
How does he define "terd", just a pitch that gets hit hard? Even a well located pitch can be hit hard by a batter who excels at hitting in that zone, or is looking in that zone.

RANDY IN INDY
08-04-2009, 09:33 AM
Harang doesn't get much out of his legs or his back when he throws his fastball. In my opinion, he doesn't need to overcompensate for this, cause it will probably cause him problems. (Location and physically) Just a little more bendin' to finish. Might get a little more movement to boot. When his fastball is flat and in the middle of the plate, he's gonna have problems.

NJReds
08-04-2009, 09:50 AM
What about the stress on pitchers knowing that one mistake likely means a loss because the offense won't provide more than 2-3 runs? I think the best think for Harang would be a trade to a decent team.

PuffyPig
08-04-2009, 10:01 AM
I for one thought Harang had a pretty good outing last night. I agree that Harang threw up a terd that became a three-run jack, but the singles to Soriano and Bradley were decent pitcher's pitches. .


Bradley got on base by HBP.

blumj
08-04-2009, 10:01 AM
Hershiser made a good point last night on the ESPN broadcast. He talked about how Harang has that short stride but doesn't get out in front of his front leg, or like you said he isn't finishing his pitches. This is great for his slider which he made Cubs hitters look foolish last night. But when he throws the fastball without finish it is flat and very hittable. IIRC, most of the hard hit balls last night off Harang were all on fastballs, I don't remember any solid contact off his off-speed...
Hershiser is great, he recently did a write-up on Smoltz, who's having a similar problem. But the question is still there, too. Is the pitcher still compensating for pain, or is he just unable to break himself of the bad habit he got into when he was trying to compensate for pain that's gone now? You'd have to be the pitcher, or completely trust him, to know for sure.

Edd Roush
08-04-2009, 10:13 AM
Bradley got on base by HBP.

Thanks for pointing that out Puffy, I was doing something else while the game was on. I saw Bradley on first when Soriano hit that ball to right, I guess I just assumed he got a hit based upon his BB number. Either way, last night was not the worst of the Reds' pitching staff. It is just too bad we can't score runs for the first half of the ball game.

nate
08-04-2009, 10:27 AM
I thought it was spelled with a "u."

"Turd."

Hoosier Red
08-04-2009, 11:33 AM
What are Harang's stats since he blew up at the offense in early May? Perhaps he got himself on a bad streak knowing he had to be perfect and is pressing a bit too much. Now he's pressing because his stats suck.

PuffyPig
08-04-2009, 12:01 PM
Thanks for pointing that out Puffy, I was doing something else while the game was on. I saw Bradley on first when Soriano hit that ball to right, I guess I just assumed he got a hit based upon his BB number.

And, I guess, assumed it was on a "pitcher's pitch"?

The Baumer
08-04-2009, 04:01 PM
We're not going to let you live this down, Edd.

TheNext44
08-04-2009, 04:16 PM
I thought it was spelled with a "u."

"Turd."

You are correct, it is spelled that way, unless it's a first name, like Terd Ferguson... funny name, Terd Ferguson...

TheNext44
08-04-2009, 04:18 PM
How does he define "terd", just a pitch that gets hit hard? Even a well located pitch can be hit hard by a batter who excels at hitting in that zone, or is looking in that zone.

His official definition is any pitch that even Willy Taveras could smoke.

Some Turds will be missed, maybe popped up, or fouled off, but most of them will get hit hard. Throw enough of them, and you give up runs.

Edd Roush
08-04-2009, 04:26 PM
We're not going to let you live this down, Edd.

Live what down, that I misspelled turd, or that I didn't see the end of Bradley's AB?

klw
08-04-2009, 05:05 PM
Year Age BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
2006 28 .269 .315 .433 .748 .322
2007 29 .242 .289 .400 .690 .290
2008 30 .284 .329 .509 .838 .314
2009 31 .293 .339 .480 .819 .342

Either the TPI is resulting in balls in play being harder hit or Harang has been unlucky last year and even more so this year.