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View Full Version : I expect one or more of Harang, Arroyo or Cordero to be traded this month



osuceltic
08-04-2009, 06:00 PM
All three are likely to clear waivers. Any claiming team most likely would be a club like the Yankees -- unafraid of winning the claim and the ensuing salary commitment. Walt has proven he's willing to deal in August. A lot of the pre-deadline chatter (and dreaming) is over, and teams with serious postseason aspirations may still need to address some needs. And the Reds need to clear a little money off the books next season to fill some additional needs.

Personally, I think they acquired Rolen as a building block (and example) to go with Votto, Cueto, probably Phillips and, hopefully, Bruce. I think they see a core in place around those players, and they plan to try to fill holes around them. But they need a little payroll flexibility to do that. Which is where the August trade comes into play.

They need a SS, two outfielders, at least one starting pitcher and some bullpen depth. In a perfect world, they would get help from the minors for one of those positional needs (not sure who it is yet -- maybe Stubbs/Heisey - CF, or Frazier - LF), requiring outside acquisitions for "just" the SS and arms.

But I do think they will need to free up some money to make it all happen.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 06:08 PM
They need a SS, two outfielders, at least one starting pitcher and some bullpen depth. In a perfect world, they would get help from the minors for one of those positional needs (not sure who it is yet -- maybe Stubbs/Heisey - CF, or Frazier - LF), requiring outside acquisitions for "just" the SS and arms.


I'm inclined to agree with your prediction. One question: Don't you think one of Heisey/Stubbs/Gomes/Dickerson or some combo of them will fill at least one of those OF spots?

osuceltic
08-04-2009, 06:18 PM
I'm inclined to agree with your prediction. One question: Don't you think one of Heisey/Stubbs/Gomes/Dickerson or some combo of them will fill at least one of those OF spots?

As I said -- hopefully. But I'm not sold on any of them just yet. Gomes and Dickerson are bench guys. Heisey/Stubbs/Frazier -- we just don't know. They aren't knocking the door down yet. I'd like to see all three called up in September, but I'll be shocked if that happens.

osuceltic
08-04-2009, 06:19 PM
Forgot to mention -- they said during the radio broadcast last night that scouts were there watching Harang. They specifically mentioned the Yankees.

Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 06:23 PM
You might be right, oc. They've got almost no one to throw hundreds of innings next season. A starting prospect or fringe starter (often the same thing) will have to come back to the Reds in any deal. And even then, a 3/4 type will have to be acquired via FA this offseason.

princeton
08-04-2009, 06:24 PM
but.... we're so close


here's my question. if someone makes a claim, do the Reds just say, "OK, he's yours. Enjoy"? I say that our GM, Bob Castellini, revokes waivers on Harang and Cordero but I'm not sure about Arroyo. I think that he SHOULD not revoke Arroyo but think that he might because, you know, we're close.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-04-2009, 06:26 PM
No Volquez

Owings hurt

Stewart given away

If you trade Arroyo, Harang, or Cordero (or two of three) you are not playing for 2010.

Wasn't 2010 why they overpaid for Scott Rolen?

Scrap Irony
08-04-2009, 06:29 PM
If Harang goes to the Yankees, they have a ton of chaff, fifth starter types in the minor leagues. And, while I'd certainly not choose that as my trading goal, it may be something Jocketty would look for.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 06:37 PM
As I said -- hopefully. But I'm not sold on any of them just yet. Gomes and Dickerson are bench guys. Heisey/Stubbs/Frazier -- we just don't know. They aren't knocking the door down yet. I'd like to see all three called up in September, but I'll be shocked if that happens.

I agree with this. I guess my point is that I can't believe the Reds would go out and acquire TWO starting OF types before 2010. I expect next year's OF will be Bruce/internal option/new acquisition.

Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 06:37 PM
Wasn't 2010 why they overpaid for Scott Rolen?

Not necessarily. My guess is that they wanted to bring in talent.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 06:39 PM
You might be right, oc. They've got almost no one to throw hundreds of innings next season. A starting prospect or fringe starter (often the same thing) will have to come back to the Reds in any deal. And even then, a 3/4 type will have to be acquired via FA this offseason.

I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.

Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 06:41 PM
I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.

He can easily get better in Arroyo's salary slot. But I wouldn't count on this organization to turn that salary space into an important single acquisition.

This pitching crisis can bring the big thinking that fixing it will require or it will result in the same nickel and dime thinking that got a 4 starter like Arroyo his extension in the first place.

Kc61
08-04-2009, 06:47 PM
I have a feeling Harang will still be hanging around in 2010, along with Cueto and Owings. I expect Arroyo will be shown the door as long as Walt can get something (anything) of value in return for him.


Here's my guess.

Arroyo and Weathers will be gone this month, even if there's no return. The issue will be getting the new team to take most of their salary commitments.

Harang will not go, as you said, unless the Reds get something of significant value for him. My expectation is that he stays because of the Volquez injury. Harang can still pitch, he just needs to deal with the homers allowed and needs some offensive support.

Cordero will not go. There is no replacement for him. Massett is a huge gamble at closer and they want to be decent next year.

Rhodes will not go. He should not go, he doesn't make enough money for a salary dump.

If he's healthy and a contender needs a catcher, I'd expect Ramon Hernandez might go. They'd keep him but he has a substantial contract, they'd opt to save the bucks if they can.

I could see Gomes being traded in August, someone may want an extra bat and he could bring some return.

I don't expect Gonzo, Owings or Taveras to go anywhere in August.

Chip R
08-04-2009, 07:28 PM
here's my question. if someone makes a claim, do the Reds just say, "OK, he's yours. Enjoy"? I say that our GM, Bob Castellini, revokes waivers on Harang and Cordero but I'm not sure about Arroyo. I think that he SHOULD not revoke Arroyo but think that he might because, you know, we're close.

They could but then they don't get anything back in return except salary relief. Even the Bucs aren't doing straight salary dumps. I would think that the Yankees would think twice about picking up either Arroyo or Harang since they play half their games in a park that makes GABP look like Petco.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 07:31 PM
They could but then they don't get anything back in return except salary relief. Even the Bucs aren't doing straight salary dumps. I would think that the Yankees would think twice about picking up either Arroyo or Harang since they play half their games in a park that makes GABP look like Petco.

Yeah, I guess the Yanks have now painted themselves into the type of corner where they've got to get a whole staff full of Brandon Webbs.

redsmetz
08-04-2009, 07:31 PM
They could but then they don't get anything back in return except salary relief. Even the Bucs aren't doing straight salary dumps. I would think that the Yankees would think twice about picking up either Arroyo or Harang since they play half their games in a park that makes GABP look like Petco.

Obviously just allowing the waivers claim is one option (seems to me the Yankees got stuck with a big ticket salary some years ago just that way). Usually the two clubs then work out a deal for the players. Or we can just pull him back, but I don't think that's likely. If any of these players can be moved, I think they'll move at least one, as your supposition states.

TheNext44
08-04-2009, 08:22 PM
First, big bombshell from Fay today. Jocketty on why Frazier's been playing 2B lately:


“The reason we moved Frazier – we probably should have done it earlier – was with (Juan) Francisco at third and (Zack) Cozart at shortstop, we wanted to see if (Frazier) could play second. We know he can play the outfield, third and short.


“It wasn’t done with idea of moving Brandon. That doesn’t mean that won’t happen. But it’s never been discussed.”

That's a large step farther than anyone in the Reds organization has made toward moving Phillips to SS, ever. There has been a consistent denial that that would ever happen.

I know it's not much, but it shows me that Jocketty is open to the idea.

IMHO, I think that one of Krivsky's biggest goofs was signing Agon instead of a 2B and moving Phillips to SS. Phillips had not established himself as a 2B yet, and there was even talk before Lopez was traded that they would flip positions.

It really made no sense, since SS are always harder to find than 2B. I have no idea who was available that year to play 2B, but a league average 2B and Phillips at SS would have been better and cheaper than Gonzo at SS and Phillips at 2B.

It might be too late, but I am glad to see that Jocketty is at least open to the idea of Phillips playing SS.

Stormy
08-04-2009, 08:52 PM
No Volquez

Owings hurt

Stewart given away

If you trade Arroyo, Harang, or Cordero (or two of three) you are not playing for 2010.

Wasn't 2010 why they overpaid for Scott Rolen?

Stop using all that fancy logic!

Stormy
08-04-2009, 08:54 PM
Not necessarily. My guess is that they wanted to bring in talent.

Even so, that's talent they control for a single season, and that single season (2010) is shaping up to be a disastrous one. If they're counting on Rolen for more than one season, as I fear they've already indicated, then the plan is even more delusional than I suspected.

Stormy
08-04-2009, 09:03 PM
It might be too late, but I am glad to see that Jocketty is at least open to the idea of Phillips playing SS.

So, this many years into his tenure with the organization, all it took was a question from a reporter for Walt to consider Phillips at SS for the first time? He's definitely an innovative thinker! I'm just teasing, but with our dreadful options at SS dating back to Krivsky's signing of AGon, I've always been shocked that this move wasn't enacted earlier. We had no true MLB SS on the roster this year, or last, and we still never experimented with moving BP and acquiring 2B help elsewhere.

Chip R
08-04-2009, 09:13 PM
So, this many years into his tenure with the organization, all it took was a question from a reporter for Walt to consider Phillips at SS for the first time? He's definitely an innovative thinker! I'm just teasing, but with our dreadful options at SS dating back to Krivsky's signing of AGon, I've always been shocked that this move wasn't enacted earlier. We had no true MLB SS on the roster this year, or last, and we still never experimented with moving BP and acquiring 2B help elsewhere.

I think they were going to do it at the end of the season 2 years ago. He may have played one game there and then they put the kibosh on the idea.

schroomytunes
08-04-2009, 09:14 PM
Rolen wasn't acquired to just get a good clubhouse guy/ veteran for the team, he was aquired knowing we needed an upgrade at 3rd base for 2010 and it allows us to ignore that spot in the offseason. Now the goal in August is to be able to trade either Harang/Arroyo,Weathers,Gomes, or Nix to free up payroll flexability come the FA period. It wont net us blue-chip prospects, but we need to be able to shop!!! As I see it were looking at:

Needs:
1)SS-we must nab a veteran here ala Scutero/Everett
---or move BP and acquire a 2b

2)LF-obvious here but it must come through trade or FA

3)SP-we need to aquire a #3/4 type starter say Marquis to shore up the corps and let Wood battle Owings for the 5th spot.

These can be done but w/o moving 1 of the above pitcher's than its a mute point.

Raisor
08-04-2009, 09:16 PM
Maybe they don't mean "moving" as in moving to short, but "moving" as in moving to another team.

Just food for thought.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 09:23 PM
Needs:
1)SS-we must nab a veteran here ala Scutero/Everett
---or move BP and acquire a 2b


I don't really get the fascination with either Scutaro or Everett. Scutaro's offensive display this year is probably a mirage and Everett is good-field-no-hit all the way. I suppose neither would be awful--but I would hope they would be last-resort type acquisitions and not prime targets. I'd much rather WJ exhaust the younger options out there (Yunel Escobar, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, et al.) before he turns to those guys.

Stormy
08-04-2009, 09:24 PM
Maybe they don't mean "moving" as in moving to short, but "moving" as in moving to another team.

Just food for thought.

I thought that was the meaning when I first read it, as well, but was replying to 44's take on the matter. Hard to tell in that fragmented context, but it almost sounds like Jock is alluding to whether they've ever thought of trading Phillips.

There are likely too many holes to fill for 2010, regardless of whether we move a big contract or two through waivers. If all we receive from moving Harang and/or Arroyo is salary relief, then you still are left needing to replace those lost innings with an upgrade through trade or free agency. An SS, a LF, possibly a CF, and 2 mid-to-TOR SP arms in the offseason? I believe it's impossible, even moreso given the salary constraints, and with only CF possibly being solved from within.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 09:29 PM
I believe it's impossible, even moreso given the salary constraints, and with only CF possibly being solved from within.

Realistically, I think they pretty much have to solve CF from within at this point--or at least give one of Stubbs/Heisey/Dickerson the chance to sink or swim before blowing any dough on the position. I also think that there are some palatable if not extraordinary options for LF already on the team (Gomes and the "loser" of the CF battle in ST). While I agree you can never have too much pitching, I have a feeling we'll be seeing a Harang-Cueto-Owings fronted rotation next spring, with the club giving a lot of lip service to Volquez's "imminent" August return in the press.

What even the Reds' FO doublespeakers can't deny now is that SS is the crying need now. I think Walt may have another move up his sleeve now that Rolen is the fold. Or, then again, he might just blow all of the extra money on Gary Matthews Jr., who will then occupy CF (and Dusty's lineup) with his veteran presence until further notice.

Raisor
08-04-2009, 09:31 PM
The average major league SS has an OPS of .710. You'd think the Reds could find someone that could get near that mark AND play good defense.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 09:32 PM
Is Brendan Harris available? Does he play good defense? Could we trade Bill Bray for him?

princeton
08-04-2009, 09:47 PM
few months from now:

“The reason we moved Frazier – we probably should have done it earlier – was with (Juan) Francisco at third and (Zack) Cozart at shortstop and Valaika at second and Alonso at first and all of those teenagers in the OF, we wanted to see if (Frazier) could catch. We know he can play the outfield, third, short, second, first, manage, and relieve."

HokieRed
08-04-2009, 10:20 PM
Is Brendan Harris available? Does he play good defense? Could we trade Bill Bray for him?


Just watched Harris play 3b in Oakland a couple weeks ago. I doubt he can play short credibly.

RedEye
08-04-2009, 10:53 PM
Just watched Harris play 3b in Oakland a couple weeks ago. I doubt he can play short credibly.

I was sort of joking. Sort of.

HokieRed
08-04-2009, 11:25 PM
I was sort of joking. Sort of.


Thought you might be but figured the info was worth sharing. I really did see him just get eaten alive by a couple of fairly ordinary balls to 3b. He's no everyday infielder.

tripleaaaron
08-05-2009, 12:25 AM
Rolen wasn't acquired to just get a good clubhouse guy/ veteran for the team, he was aquired knowing we needed an upgrade at 3rd base for 2010 and it allows us to ignore that spot in the offseason. Now the goal in August is to be able to trade either Harang/Arroyo,Weathers,Gomes, or Nix to free up payroll flexability come the FA period. It wont net us blue-chip prospects, but we need to be able to shop!!! As I see it were looking at:

Needs:
1)SS-we must nab a veteran here ala Scutero/Everett
---or move BP and acquire a 2b

2)LF-obvious here but it must come through trade or FA

3)SP-we need to aquire a #3/4 type starter say Marquis to shore up the corps and let Wood battle Owings for the 5th spot.

These can be done but w/o moving 1 of the above pitcher's than its a mute point.

That's it? It is going to be a moot point if we move a pitcher or not. So we move Arroyo and acquire another 3-4 type (which is arroyo?). What have we done to improve (besides hopefully a few dollars)? We acquire a "veteran" shortstop (agon?). I don't know how much you all think we are going to improve by swapping out light contracts. Don't you think the person who is contemplating trading for bronson would just sign the available player who is better and cheaper (if all moves take place in offseason)? We also need much more than a #3-4 type pitcher in order to be competitive (unless he means competitive with the pirates). We are a #1 and a #2-3 type away from being a true contender.

TheNext44
08-05-2009, 12:52 AM
Maybe they don't mean "moving" as in moving to short, but "moving" as in moving to another team.

Just food for thought.

Sorry, here's the full quote from Fay:


The Reds didn’t move Todd Frazier to second base as a prelude to moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop. But Walt Jocketty didn’t dismiss the idea.

“The reason we moved Frazier – we probably should have done it earlier – was with (Juan) Francisco at third and (Zack) Cozart at shortstop, we wanted to see if (Frazier) could play second. We know he can play the outfield, third and short.

I think we can assume that Fay asked Jocketty if moving Frazier was a prelude to moving BP to SS and that was Jockety's answer.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2009, 01:32 AM
First, big bombshell from Fay today. Jocketty on why Frazier's been playing 2B lately:



That's a large step farther than anyone in the Reds organization has made toward moving Phillips to SS, ever. There has been a consistent denial that that would ever happen.

I know it's not much, but it shows me that Jocketty is open to the idea.

IMHO, I think that one of Krivsky's biggest goofs was signing Agon instead of a 2B and moving Phillips to SS. Phillips had not established himself as a 2B yet, and there was even talk before Lopez was traded that they would flip positions.

It really made no sense, since SS are always harder to find than 2B. I have no idea who was available that year to play 2B, but a league average 2B and Phillips at SS would have been better and cheaper than Gonzo at SS and Phillips at 2B.

It might be too late, but I am glad to see that Jocketty is at least open to the idea of Phillips playing SS.

I am wondering if he is doing it to move Brandon. And I don't mean to SS either. It definitely has to be a consideration.

REDREAD
08-05-2009, 11:00 AM
If Harang goes to the Yankees, they have a ton of chaff, fifth starter types in the minor leagues. And, while I'd certainly not choose that as my trading goal, it may be something Jocketty would look for.

It all depends on what the Reds think of Harang's chances to bounce back.

If they think (or know) his early success was due to steroids, then yes give him away.

If Harang is just having a rough year, don't give him away for a 5th starter type or salary relief.

People are chomping at the bit to give Arroyo away for salary relief. I'm not sure how that helps. Sure, it frees up 11 million (?), but then we're going to either sign a Josh Fogg for 3 million or an adequate pitcher for 7 million.

I'm all for trading anyone on this roster for talent that helps us move forward, but probably the only player I'd simply give away is Cordero.

RedEye
08-05-2009, 12:49 PM
Thought you might be but figured the info was worth sharing. I really did see him just get eaten alive by a couple of fairly ordinary balls to 3b. He's no everyday infielder.

Yes, it was, thanks. I actually had lost track of Harris since he left the Reds. He and Cody Ross are sort of the same player in my mind--WK acquisitions that never got a chance to play in Cincy.

RedEye
08-05-2009, 12:51 PM
It all depends on what the Reds think of Harang's chances to bounce back.

If they think (or know) his early success was due to steroids, then yes give him away.

If Harang is just having a rough year, don't give him away for a 5th starter type or salary relief.


Wait a minute... are people seriously talking about Aaron Harang and steroids? Crazy talk.

IMO, his "rough year" isn't actually too off from his career norms. Those years with a 3.70 ERA may be gone, but I still see him as a useful 4.00 to 4.50 ERA type pitcher with decent K numbers. Don't pay any attention to his record--that's mostly due to the Reds putrid offense. He could just as easily have 9 or 10 wins right now.

nate
08-05-2009, 01:07 PM
Wait a minute... are people seriously talking about Aaron Harang and steroids? Crazy talk.

Agreed.


IMO, his "rough year" isn't actually too off from his career norms. Those years with a 3.70 ERA may be gone, but I still see him as a useful 4.00 to 4.50 ERA type pitcher with decent K numbers. Don't pay any attention to his record--that's mostly due to the Reds putrid offense. He could just as easily have 9 or 10 wins right now.His PitchFX data is kind of interesting (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=1451&position=P). The thing I noticed was that his slider isn't quite breaking like it used to.

Obviously, it's the 'roids.

REDREAD
08-05-2009, 03:50 PM
Wait a minute... are people seriously talking about Aaron Harang and steroids? Crazy talk.

Sorry, it was more of a hypothetical thing than an accusation.



IMO, his "rough year" isn't actually too off from his career norms. Those years with a 3.70 ERA may be gone, but I still see him as a useful 4.00 to 4.50 ERA type pitcher with decent K numbers. Don't pay any attention to his record--that's mostly due to the Reds putrid offense. He could just as easily have 9 or 10 wins right now.

Yep, that's why I don't see the point in dealing him to the Yankees for a #5 chaff starter to save money. Trading Harang for a #5 pitcher making 4-5 million isn't going to move the team forward. I'd rather have Harang (and his upside) at a higher salary. I guess the equation changes in the last year of his contract, but why not keep him for next year, especially if his trade value is low?

GAC
08-05-2009, 04:23 PM
First, big bombshell from Fay today. Jocketty on why Frazier's been playing 2B lately:

Quote:
“The reason we moved Frazier – we probably should have done it earlier – was with (Juan) Francisco at third and (Zack) Cozart at shortstop, we wanted to see if (Frazier) could play second. We know he can play the outfield, third and short.


“It wasn’t done with idea of moving Brandon. That doesn’t mean that won’t happen. But it’s never been discussed.”

Frazier was a SS his entire collegiate career. Was there some determination made, within this organization, that he'd never be a solid SS at the ML level and needed to be moved positionally because we're somehow "crowded" at the SS position in our farm system?

Zach Cozart looks impressive so far for AA Carolina; but I'm not impressed with Justin Tordi at all. And I'll say the same for Chris Valaika at Louisville. And Luis Bolivar, at age 28, and also at Louisville, ain't no prospect.

So who is considered the Red's top SS prospect? Do we even have one?

A couple years ago I was on board at moving BP to SS. Not so much any more. He has flourished at 2B and won a GG. No doubt he's a defensive gem there; but that doesn't necessarily translate into the same success at SS.

So why possibly mess with, and maybe screw up, a good thing?

Homer Bailey
08-05-2009, 04:30 PM
Frazier was a SS his entire collegiate career. Was there some determination made, within this organization, that he'd never be a solid SS at the ML level and needed to be moved positionally because we're somehow "crowded" at the SS position in our farm system?

Zach Cozart looks impressive so far for AA Carolina; but I'm not impressed with Justin Tordi at all. And I'll say the same for Chris Valaika at Louisville. And Luis Bolivar, at age 28, and also at Louisville, ain't no prospect.

So who is considered the Red's top SS prospect? Do we even have one?

I would say Cozart is by far our best SS prospect. MLB ready glove, plut he's shown constant improvement with the stick. Posted a .787 OPS last year in a Dayton, and is carrying a .786 OPS this year in Carolina. I think he could be a .750 OPS bat in the majors if his development continues. He's not going to be a superstar, but he can be a solid major league SS.

Junior Arias, Humberto Valor, (Miguel?) Rojas and Billy Hamilton are all a little young to get a complete gauge on their potential. There seems to be quite a bit of a drop off in SS prospects after Cozart (or at least there seems to be more question marks).

TheNext44
08-05-2009, 04:40 PM
I would say Cozart is by far our best SS prospect. MLB ready glove, plut he's shown constant improvement with the stick. Posted a .787 OPS last year in a Dayton, and is carrying a .786 OPS this year in Carolina. I think he could be a .750 OPS bat in the majors if his development continues. He's not going to be a superstar, but he can be a solid major league SS.

Junior Arias, Humberto Valor, (Miguel?) Rojas and Billy Hamilton are all a little young to get a complete gauge on their potential. There seems to be quite a bit of a drop off in SS prospects after Cozart (or at least there seems to be more question marks).

Miller mentioned that Cozart will be in the mix for the starting SS job in Cincy next year, which is a real good sign.

If he can OPS .750 and provide the defense he's been providing, he would be one the leagues top SS. I would be very happy if he OPS'ed around .700. He is showing more power than Janish, so there is hope. And SS make the jump from AA to the majors all the time.

He might not make the opening day roster, but I think Cozart will be the Reds SS for most of 2010. At least I'm hoping.

Chip R
08-05-2009, 04:42 PM
Miller mentioned that Cozart will be in the mix for the starting SS job in Cincy next year, which is a real good sign.



Oh, is Dusty not going to be the manager next year?

Homer Bailey
08-05-2009, 04:43 PM
Miller mentioned that Cozart will be in the mix for the starting SS job in Cincy next year, which is a real good sign.

If he can OPS .750 and provide the defense he's been providing, he would be one the leagues top SS. I would be very happy if he OPS'ed around .700. He is showing more power than Janish, so there is hope. And SS make the jump from AA to the majors all the time.

He might not make the opening day roster, but I think Cozart will be the Reds SS for most of 2010. At least I'm hoping.

I'm not saying he will be a .750 OPS bat next year. I'm saying he can be at some point in the future.

Also, I severely doubt he'll be playing over Alex Gonzalez next year. Not kidding. He's going to be resigned. Watch.