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View Full Version : Every starter is pitching worse this year than last



Falls City Beer
08-04-2009, 09:11 PM
despite better defense.

True or false?

Discuss.

The Baumer
08-04-2009, 09:17 PM
I think I agree.

RedFanAlways1966
08-04-2009, 10:01 PM
Do not totally agree. Can analyze it to death of course. Worse in what way?

ERA
Harang: 2008 = 4.86 ; 2009 = 4.52
Cueto: 2008 = 4.81 ; 2009 = 4.23
Bailey: 2008 = 7.93 ; 2009 = 7.06
STAFF: 2008 = 4.97 ; 2009 = 4.94

Strikeouts are down... 2008 = 7.47 K/9IP ; 2009 = 6.47 K/9IP.
Walks have gone up... 2008 = 3.36 BB/9IP ; 2009 = 3.63 BB/9IP.
Hits allowed are down... 2008 = 9.76 H/9IP ; 2009 = 9.52 H/IP.
Walks up, hits down... 2008 = 1.46 WHIP ; 2009 = 1.46 WHIP.

Better defense? 2008 = 0.65 E/G ; 2009 = 0.70 E/G. When looking only at errors it is close, but not better.

The pitching has been nothing to write home about this year and I think it safe to say it has not lived up to the expectations going into the season.

Brutus
08-04-2009, 10:03 PM
Do not totally agree. Can analyze it to death of course. Worse in what way?

ERA
Harang: 2008 = 4.86 ; 2009 = 4.52
Cueto: 2008 = 4.81 ; 2009 = 4.23
Bailey: 2008 = 7.93 ; 2009 = 7.06
STAFF: 2008 = 4.97 ; 2009 = 4.94

Strikeouts are down... 2008 = 7.47 K/9IP ; 2009 = 6.47 K/9IP.
Walks have gone up... 2008 = 3.36 BB/9IP ; 2009 = 3.63 BB/9IP.
Hits allowed are down... 2008 = 9.76 H/9IP ; 2009 = 9.52 H/IP.
Walks up, hits down... 2008 = 1.46 WHIP ; 2009 = 1.46 WHIP.

Better defense? 2008 = 0.65 E/G ; 2009 = 0.70 E/G. When looking only at errors it is close, but not better.

The pitching has been nothing to write home about this year and I think it safe to say it has not lived up to the expectations going into the season.

I don't know if I agree with the OP, but the DER is much, much better than last year. While the team might be committing similar number of errors, it's getting to a lot of balls this year it was not last year. It's definitely better as a whole.

Highlifeman21
08-04-2009, 11:10 PM
And let's not forget Arroyo....

He's certainly having a stellar 2009

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2009, 11:20 PM
despite better defense.

True or false?

Discuss.

Disagree...completely.

Bailey is MUCH improved. Inconsistant...but I'd expect that from a young kid.

Harang is throwing MUCH better than last year...just not getting the results. Not as good as 2 & 3 years ago, but much better than last season. He'll have a poor INNING and have no chance at a win.

Cueto had a tremendous first half. He hit a bump mid season and has not been able to put it back together. I put a good portion of this on Dick Pole.

Owings has been up and down a bit, but for a 5th starter he's been MUCH better than I expected.

Arroyo DOES have 10 wins. How, I have NO idea. He's looked great one night and like garbage the next. But you come to expect it after a while. For a number 4 starter (which is what he is on a full, healthy Cincy staff), he's right about average. Overpaid for a #4, but adequet.

Edinson....too much off season throwing crippled his season before it even began I think.

Topcat
08-05-2009, 05:59 AM
despite better defense.

True or false?

Discuss.



Agreed and would love your insight and others on why this is.

membengal
08-05-2009, 06:33 AM
Pole, Dick. Among the most useless carbon-based life forms to ever put on a Reds cap and call himself a coach.

redsmetz
08-05-2009, 07:06 AM
I'm not sure I concur with your original statement, but I can say this that for the first time in my recent memory, I know that when a Reds pitcher gets behind, even by a few runs, there is very little chance (maybe even "virtually no chance") that this club can come from behind to win a game. I think we've done it twice all season, if that.

So perhaps the club's premise of pitching and defense coming into the season wasn't faulty, even if not perfectly executed, between lacking one additional "big bat" and the plethora of injuries that has decimated the starting players on this club, we presently do not have the offense necessary to get back in games. Harang's outing the other night is a good example. It's never easy coming back from a 4 run deficit, but in the past this club had the hitters to have a good chance of doing it. Right now, we don't.

So defense and pitching are a great concept, and probably the right approach. But without some modicum of an offense, your pitchers and your fielders have to be nearly perfect to give us a chance.

CarolinaRedleg
08-05-2009, 07:29 AM
I think the whole "pitching and defense" mantra was a "we're not going to hit a lick this year, so we've got to tell the fans something this spring" smokescreen.

And with that said, with this weenie offense, two runs can sometimes mean ballgame, which doesn't do the pitchers much good unless they're lights out. Take Harang on Monday night, his stuff's working, strikes out a bunch, but the one home run dooms him. Once it was 3-0, I was like, that's like 8-0 against a team with a capable offense.

RedFanAlways1966
08-05-2009, 07:34 AM
And let's not forget Arroyo....

He's certainly having a stellar 2009

Oh, you mean that guy who has the most quality starts on the team (true)? ;)

Either really good or really bad. This year he reminds me of the past with guys like Cory Lidle or Kyle Lohse. Either a QS or gets bombed. No in-between for Bronson.

22 Starts
Qual St: 12 G, 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.
NON QS: 10 G, 10.95 ERA, 2.25 WHIP.

jojo
08-05-2009, 09:33 AM
Cueto had a tremendous first half. He hit a bump mid season and has not been able to put it back together. I put a good portion of this on Dick Pole.

The tremendous part or the bump part?

Highlifeman21
08-05-2009, 10:46 AM
Oh, you mean that guy who has the most quality starts on the team (true)? ;)

Either really good or really bad. This year he reminds me of the past with guys like Cory Lidle or Kyle Lohse. Either a QS or gets bombed. No in-between for Bronson.

22 Starts
Qual St: 12 G, 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.
NON QS: 10 G, 10.95 ERA, 2.25 WHIP.

Payin' a lot of coin for massive inconsistency.

Arroyo's smoke and mirrors. He's not the type of guy I wanna pay $10+ Million a year to at best be a middle of the rotation type guy.

WVRedsFan
08-05-2009, 12:16 PM
I think a telling remark came from Cueto last night and Harang the night before. With so little run support, the pressure is to be perfect and it's not working. Some have said that if that gets to a pitcher, he shouldn't be in the majors, but I disagree. They're all human, but if you know you're going to lose by allowing 3 or 4 runs (or even less!), it must be horrible for the starters. No mistakes, boys, and we'll win. What a horrible life.

princeton
08-05-2009, 01:06 PM
I think a telling remark came from Cueto last night and Harang the night before. With so little run support, the pressure is to be perfect and it's not working. Some have said that if that gets to a pitcher, he shouldn't be in the majors, but I disagree. They're all human, but if you know you're going to lose by allowing 3 or 4 runs (or even less!), it must be horrible for the starters. No mistakes, boys, and we'll win. What a horrible life.


Curt Schilling talked about how throwing 90 pitches in a 2-1 game just wipes you out, whereas throwing 125 pitches in a 7-1 game is easy stuff.

pitching's not the problem, IMO.

HokieRed
08-05-2009, 01:18 PM
I think a telling remark came from Cueto last night and Harang the night before. With so little run support, the pressure is to be perfect and it's not working. Some have said that if that gets to a pitcher, he shouldn't be in the majors, but I disagree. They're all human, but if you know you're going to lose by allowing 3 or 4 runs (or even less!), it must be horrible for the starters. No mistakes, boys, and we'll win. What a horrible life.


Part of why you have to have players who can make plays at every position.

REDREAD
08-05-2009, 02:46 PM
I really don't see why the blame is on Dick Pole (or Dusty, or any other coach).

Pole actually is pretty highly regarded. He certianly has had a long career. Gullet was a good coach too, but he often got blamed.

At some point, the guy actually throwing the pitches has to be held accountable. If he's being told to do something that is clearly not working, why continue to do it?

GAC
08-05-2009, 04:24 PM
I think the whole "pitching and defense" mantra was a "we're not going to hit a lick this year, so we've got to tell the fans something this spring" smokescreen.

And with that said, with this weenie offense, two runs can sometimes mean ballgame, which doesn't do the pitchers much good unless they're lights out. Take Harang on Monday night, his stuff's working, strikes out a bunch, but the one home run dooms him. Once it was 3-0, I was like, that's like 8-0 against a team with a capable offense.

You nailed it big time!

This year's team ERA has gradually worsened to the point where it is now 4.99 vs last year's 4.55. And the slide will continue IMO.

But even if we were able to maintain last year's team ERA, which ain't nothing to crow about, this GM took a below league average '08 offense and made it far worse by going on the cheap while hiding behind the "improved" defense mantra.

Sure - our overall defense has seen a bump. But again, like the team ERA, not nearly enough to offset a simply horrendous offense.

And where has our defense improved?

I agree it has behind the plate with the Hernandez/Hanigan tandem, with Votto solidified at 1B, Bruce supplanting Jr in RF, and Phillips at 2B.

But we went into this season with huge question marks at key positions like LF, CF, SS, and 3B.

They supplanted "my two left feet" Dunn in LF with pretty much the same in the Gomes/Nix platoon. if some want to contend they are slightly better defensively then Dunn then they'll get no argument from me; but at what cost offensively? A huge one IMO.

And CF? A speedster who takes bad routes to balls in play, will occasionally make that fantastic play, then flub catchable balls (like in last night's game vs the Cubs). And we won't mention the fact that he such an offensive force in the lead-off spot. ;)

Jocketty kept his fingers crossed that AGon, after being out an entire year, would be consistently health enough to man SS. He wasn't. But he'll be here next year because he really has no other options, and the available SS FA list is not impressive. Yeah, he could possibly make a "slobberknocker" trade, but I'll keep my fingers crossed there.

And he improved 3B by supplanting EE with Rolen. Which Rolen, from an offensive standpoint, are we going to see in 2010? His power numbers are in decline.

We have a GM who relies far more on finger crossing then anything else IMO.

GAC
08-05-2009, 04:46 PM
I really don't see why the blame is on Dick Pole (or Dusty, or any other coach).

Pole actually is pretty highly regarded. He certianly has had a long career. Gullet was a good coach too, but he often got blamed.

At some point, the guy actually throwing the pitches has to be held accountable. If he's being told to do something that is clearly not working, why continue to do it?

I agree with you on Dick Pole, and even Jacoby for that matter, and have stated so.... http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1934056#post1934056

Now some may contend that I can't rail on Dusty if I'm not going to do likewise with the pitching and hitting coach. Fair enough.

But I've publicly listened to Dusty expound his philosophy many times over as to the type of players he desires, and his approach to the game. Dusty was instrumental, IMO, is acquiring and assembly this current team of misfits, not the pitching and hitting coach. He's the guy who makes out that lineup card every day with his traditional thinking - wanting speed at the top of the order, and with total disregard for OB% - and wanting his players to go up that plate and "make things happen" (be aggressive).

I see players, when they do get on base, consistently making gaffes. I see a manager, when he does get a guy on base, who will readily give up outs to get the guy into scoring position.

So until I see or hear more on what Pole and Jacoby expound on, as far as their philosophical approach to the game is, and where it's proving detrimental or counter productive to our pitchers and hitters, I am going to give them a pass to a degree.

And didn't Baker use to be a hitting coach? I know he has a book called "You Can Teach Hitting". I just recently purchased the book, and it does have some very sound principles in it.

So maybe it simply boils down to the "pupils", and that they just aren't teachable in that aspect, and the book title should be updated to read....

"You Can't Teach Everyone Hitting" ;)

Chip R
08-05-2009, 04:51 PM
I really don't see why the blame is on Dick Pole (or Dusty, or any other coach).

Pole actually is pretty highly regarded. He certianly has had a long career. Gullet was a good coach too, but he often got blamed.

At some point, the guy actually throwing the pitches has to be held accountable. If he's being told to do something that is clearly not working, why continue to do it?


I'm not saying that Pole is the problem but sometimes they need to hear a different voice because they have tuned out the same one that keeps telling them to do this and do that.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2009, 07:20 PM
The tremendous part or the bump part?

Both. They prepared him very well going into the season, but they've done virtually nothing to turn him around once he started heading in the wrong direction. I don't see any ability to adapt in Pole.

Falls City Beer
08-05-2009, 09:40 PM
Lehr pitches complete game against Central-leading Cubs. Not everyone is worse I guess.

REDREAD
08-05-2009, 09:44 PM
I'm not saying that Pole is the problem but sometimes they need to hear a different voice because they have tuned out the same one that keeps telling them to do this and do that.

I think the best pitching coach in the game maybe impacts an average of one pitcher per year. Pitching is just a difficult thing to do.

Especially guys like Harang and Arroyo. They know what they need to do, they just can't execute it as well this year, for whatever reason. I doubt any coach is going to be able to help them bounce back any quicker.

CTA513
08-05-2009, 09:45 PM
Lehr pitches complete game against Central-leading Cubs. Not everyone is worse I guess.

He hasn't been with the major league club long enough to get worse.

Falls City Beer
08-05-2009, 09:46 PM
He hasn't been with the major league club long enough to get worse.

Keep him away from the other starters.

Degenerate39
08-05-2009, 09:47 PM
Keep him away from the other starters.

Or Dick Pole

Spring~Fields
08-06-2009, 12:20 PM
I agree with you on Dick Pole, and even Jacoby for that matter, and have stated so.... http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1934056#post1934056

Now some may contend that I can't rail on Dusty if I'm not going to do likewise with the pitching and hitting coach. Fair enough.

But I've publicly listened to Dusty expound his philosophy many times over as to the type of players he desires, and his approach to the game. Dusty was instrumental, IMO, is acquiring and assembly this current team of misfits, not the pitching and hitting coach. He's the guy who makes out that lineup card every day with his traditional thinking - wanting speed at the top of the order, and with total disregard for OB% - and wanting his players to go up that plate and "make things happen" (be aggressive).

I see players, when they do get on base, consistently making gaffes. I see a manager, when he does get a guy on base, who will readily give up outs to get the guy into scoring position.

So until I see or hear more on what Pole and Jacoby expound on, as far as their philosophical approach to the game is, and where it's proving detrimental or counter productive to our pitchers and hitters, I am going to give them a pass to a degree.




If we assume what you assert is true for Bakers influence on his players and his effect that would be seen in the strategies witnessed as they play out on the field or at the plate. Then why can we not assume that he exerts power, authority and his influence upon the hitting and pitching coaches in like manners with his beliefs, in an attempt to achieve through those coaches what Baker believes the pitchers and batters should be doing?? How much of the talent challenged Reds are we actually seeing from the coaches instructions, or anothers influence?

Falls City Beer
08-06-2009, 12:30 PM
Why is Cueto pitching demonstrably worse this year? You'd think he'd have built up stamina, but he appears to be almost totally frayed.

Why does this seem to happen with Reds' starters with greater frequency than with those on other teams?

Spring~Fields
08-06-2009, 12:38 PM
Why is Cueto pitching demonstrably worse this year? You'd think he'd have built up stamina, but he appears to be almost totally frayed.

Why does this seem to happen with Reds' starters with greater frequency than with those on other teams?

I wish I knew the answers to those questions. I think it would be really interesting to learn and to understand.

nate
08-06-2009, 12:41 PM
Check out Cueto's PitchFX (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6893&position=P) page at fangraphs. I'm no whiz with this stuff but it looks like velocity is slightly down across the board and that slider has lost some movement.

HokieRed
08-06-2009, 03:45 PM
Why is Cueto pitching demonstrably worse this year? You'd think he'd have built up stamina, but he appears to be almost totally frayed.

Why does this seem to happen with Reds' starters with greater frequency than with those on other teams?


How well do we understand the cumulative dimension of wear and tear on the pitcher's body? We talk a lot about innings pitched per year but not so much, or very intelligently, it seems to me, about the wear and tear of years in a row of heavy work. Or of how cumulative wear is related to age: i.e. is the body more able to take successive years of 200 innings plus when a pitcher's younger or does this actually become easier at a later stage (when, among other things, pitchers should have learned the quickest possible means to getting through their innings)?

D-Man
08-06-2009, 10:15 PM
Why is Cueto pitching demonstrably worse this year? You'd think he'd have built up stamina, but he appears to be almost totally frayed.

Why does this seem to happen with Reds' starters with greater frequency than with those on other teams?

My hypothesis is that it's structural. The pitching will *always* fall apart from June through August. The park dimensions, Cincy mid-summer humidity, and movement of air through the Notch make the GABP an impossibly difficult place to pitch three months a year.

Every year the pitching staff melts, NLT 15 June. And every September some "stud" young pitcher emerges, promising to be a great pitcher for years to come.

In reality, it's the illusory and interactive effect of the ballpark and weather.