PDA

View Full Version : Where do we stand on Lehr?



kaldaniels
08-05-2009, 09:43 PM
Yeah, I gotta bring it up after the shutout...

How do you see Lehr playing out...
Do the Reds have anything to work with here...
Is he a once around the league type of guy...

Mind as well have a discussion about it.

Falls City Beer
08-05-2009, 09:44 PM
Yeah, I gotta bring it up after the shutout...

How do you see Lehr playing out...
Do the Reds have anything to work with here...
Is he a once around the league type of guy...

Mind as well have a discussion about it.

He's probably nothing, but then the Reds have a lot of that in the pitching department. Maybe eventually if you have enough nothing it becomes something.

KoryMac5
08-05-2009, 09:45 PM
Lehr for pitching coach.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 09:48 PM
He's a better looking version of Tom Shearn.

I have to say, I really enjoyed this performance. Lehr did his best not to get himself in trouble, and kept pounding the strikezone. Some nights, that means nothing more than being pounded for 2+ innings, but tonight it led to a 4 hitter.

One of the highlights of the season for me, and a great story that Lehr can tell his grandkids.

Highlifeman21
08-05-2009, 09:53 PM
Shouldn't we give him the Michalak grace period before we figure out where we stand?

Always Red
08-05-2009, 09:53 PM
It was fun to watch.

Ride that horse until he gives out.

guttle11
08-05-2009, 09:54 PM
Happy for him?

I mean, he's not a long term option. He's not even a three year plan option. He's just a guy that's worked his butt off his whole career and because of certain circumstances is getting his reward for all he's put into the game. Tremendous moment for him tonight. Whatever "it" is, that's what's it's all about.

kaldaniels
08-05-2009, 09:55 PM
Shouldn't we give him the Michalak grace period before we figure out where we stand?

I hate having a name such as Michalak purged from my memory and then you have to go and mention him. :D

Highlifeman21
08-05-2009, 09:56 PM
I hate having a name such as Michalak purged from my memory and then you have to go and mention him. :D

You're welcome ;)

Tom Servo
08-05-2009, 09:56 PM
It was fun to watch.

Ride that horse until he gives out.
Exactly. No reason to believe it was anything more than one good start but we have nothing to lose so we should just let him keep making starts. His ceiling seems to be #5 starter but that's nothing to discard.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 09:59 PM
We might get to see more starts. Nothing to decide right now.

Personally, I've been a Lehr fan for a while. And BTW, he pitches well out of the pen too.

redsfan4445
08-05-2009, 10:05 PM
22 first pitch strikes!! how many of the core pitchers have done that?? I hope he continues to do well, maybe gets the #5 spot for good

Who knows, but at least be happy for him before tossing him away.

SMcGavin
08-05-2009, 10:08 PM
That was nice, don't get me wrong.

But two starts: 13 IP, 4 K and 7 BB. We know where this story is going right?

LoganBuck
08-05-2009, 10:10 PM
Owings wants to skip a rehab start and take the ball next Tuesday in St. Louis. Marty thought that hinged on Lehr's outing tonight. Should be an interesting spin of the rotation this weekend for Bailey, Homer and Cueto, Johnny.

Personally I would send Owings to the bullpen for the time being. No sense in pushing his balky shoulder.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 10:12 PM
That was nice, don't get me wrong.

But two starts: 13 IP, 4 K and 7 BB. We know where this story is going right?

No, we don't.

SMcGavin
08-05-2009, 10:16 PM
No, we don't.

4.6 K/9 in AAA as a 31 year old. I really enjoy your first-hand reports on the Bats and I know you've seen him plenty this year. But I think you are letting your personal feelings about Lehr cloud your judgement on this one.

Scrap Irony
08-05-2009, 10:20 PM
Lehr's fun to watch pitch. He has an idea. His stuff isn't bad either, but it's pretty straight, other than the splitter.

I doubt he's anything other than minor league depth. But he's decent minor league depth.

Most any year this decade, he'd already be in the rotation.

Brutus
08-05-2009, 10:23 PM
The peripherals suggested Matt Maloney could be a successful pitcher at this level (though I still believe he can be), but so far performance says otherwise. Lehr's peripherals aren't nearly as supportive of him cutting it as Maloney. So I am highly skeptical that Lehr can amount to anything more than fodder.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 10:24 PM
No, we don't.

I think we've seen this story before. It was one game. It was really fun and enjoyable, but let's not get crazy here.

He was a journeyman coming into this game, and he's a journeyman coming out.

I do know one thing, if Lehr had the talent of Homer Bailey, he's be one heck of a pitcher.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 10:24 PM
Don't think I don't know that when a Bats goes to the bigs, it's a different game. But I also don't believe for a second that a pitcher has to have a high K rate to be effective. And don't expect to see Lehr walk 6 in another game.

Lehr's not a kid like Homer. He has developed the skill of knowing how to pitch. You saw it tonight.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2009, 10:28 PM
Happy for him?

I mean, he's not a long term option. He's not even a three year plan option. He's just a guy that's worked his butt off his whole career and because of certain circumstances is getting his reward for all he's put into the game. Tremendous moment for him tonight. Whatever "it" is, that's what's it's all about.

Perfectly said

savafan
08-05-2009, 10:39 PM
I don't know, but I'm curious to see it play out. He wouldn't be the first guy in the game's history to put it together late, nor would he be the first flash in the pan for one game. I'm hoping for the best though, for Lehr, the team and the fans. We all need a good story to embrace.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 10:39 PM
I think we've seen this story before. It was one game. It was really fun and enjoyable, but let's not get crazy here.

2 games
1.93 ERA
1.07 WHIP

Getting crazy to me would be just writing him off. Send him back to Louisville and start Owings for the rest of the year.

redsfan4445
08-05-2009, 10:42 PM
geesh you would think he just gave up 5 runs to the Nationals and LOST!! Heck at least h did well.. I bet if he threw a no-hitter, everybody woudl still call it a fluke and not be happy for the guy!! Goodness!! enough of the negative on this board.. Its like only certain players can only do well and the rest that do are justa fluke.. I hope he wins again against the Cards!!

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 10:43 PM
Don't think I don't know that when a Bats goes to the bigs, it's a different game. But I also don't believe for a second that a pitcher has to have a high K rate to be effective. And don't expect to see Lehr walk 6 in another game.

Lehr's not a kid like Homer. He has developed the skill of knowing how to pitch. You saw it tonight.

You gotta be able to fool someone.

A K rate of 4 in the minors means even lower than that in the majors. It's a sign that he doesn't have the requisite stuff to survive in the bigs. Even tonight, at his absolute best he strikes out 4. You don't have to be a K pitcher to succeed, not at all, but you have to be able to fool them sometimes.

A guy like him has absolutely rasor thin margins. Tonight everything went his way. I don't want to take anything away from the guy, I really enjoyed the performance, but before tonight, there was not one single thing in his track record that suggests he can survive in the majors.

One game, no matter how good, does not change that.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 10:46 PM
2 games
1.93 ERA
1.07 WHIP

Getting crazy to me would be just writing him off. Send him back to Louisville and start Owings for the rest of the year.

No it really wouldn't. If the Reds were contending and had a guy that was perceived as better coming off the DL, I wouldn't hesitate to ditch Lehr. He had 1 good game. Last week was an unmitigated disaster from a peripheral standpoint.

Getting crazy is letting 1 game for anyone, let alone a 31 year old journeyan change your judgements about the pitcher.

savafan
08-05-2009, 10:48 PM
He reminds me of Joel Pineiro. I'd love to have the 2009 version of Joel Pineiro

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-05-2009, 10:48 PM
The way the Reds operate, they've already penciled him in to replace EV in the 2010 rotation, based on this game alone.

cincrazy
08-05-2009, 10:53 PM
Lehr had a wonderful performance tonight. I'm not taking anything away from that.

But lets be real, name one other pitcher in the majors who tops out at about 85 mph who is a consistent, good starter in a ML rotation.

It was a great performance, and something to be proud of. But it's not negativity pointing out that the guy probably doesn't have much longer before he starts getting his brains beat in. It's reality.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 10:53 PM
You guys are right. He sucks. Send him back to Louisville.

savafan
08-05-2009, 10:56 PM
But lets be real, name one other pitcher in the majors who tops out at about 85 mph who is a consistent, good starter in a ML rotation.



http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml

HokieRed
08-05-2009, 10:58 PM
Great performance, a high point of the season. I wouldn't want to put much into at all, but I'll be very disappointed if he doesn't stay in the rotation until he pitches himself out. He deserves it.
Two righthanders who didn't throw much harder than Lehr did become long-term options for their various clubs and were very useful pitchers:
1. Rick Reed, 15 seasons, 93-76, 4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.7 W, threw 420 innings for the Mets as a 32 and 33 year old
2. Bob Tewksbury, 13 seasons, 110-102, 3.92 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.0 K/9, 1.5 W, threw well over 400 innings for the Cardinals over his 31 and 32 year old seasons.
It can be done.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 11:01 PM
You guys are right. He sucks. Send him back to Louisville.

Go ahead, make a compelling argument.

If you have nothing more than sarcastic jabs then we aren't going to get anywhere.

It's one game. I'm cool with letting him live the dream for the meantime, it's not like we have anything better at the moment, but we HAVE to do better than him later.

Razor Shines
08-05-2009, 11:06 PM
I'm glad that as board (for the most part) we've come a long way. We are no longer fooled by guys like Lehr. It was fun to watch and we're all thrilled for the guy, but like was said before we know how this story ends, unfortunately. Know one thinks we should just ship him back to Louisville or anything. By all means keep giving him the ball. What difference does it make at this point, but he's going to start getting pounded eventually.

cincrazy
08-05-2009, 11:10 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml

Correct. However, he's lefthanded, and there is a difference. Crafty lefties get by a lot more often than righties with no stuff.

And Jamie Moyer is a tremendous exception to the rule. It would be unbelievable if Lehr turned into Moyer... but I think I'm just as likely to become an astronaut.

cincrazy
08-05-2009, 11:12 PM
You guys are right. He sucks. Send him back to Louisville.

Look, I really hope you're not taking this personally. I'm sure Lehr is a great guy living a dream, and that's awesome. But a guy simply isn't going to get by with his stuff pitching against Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Aramis Ramirez, etc.

There's nothing wrong with giving him starts. We have no better options right now, and he's earned the opportunity. All I'm saying is, if we're counting on him at all as a long term option... well, see the last ten years for those results.

RedsManRick
08-05-2009, 11:14 PM
It was said earlier and I think it was spot on: Tom Shearn 2.0. When he gets lucky with the hit rate, he'll be effective. When he doesn't, not so much.

GOYA
08-05-2009, 11:21 PM
Go ahead, make a compelling argument.

If you have nothing more than sarcastic jabs then we aren't going to get anywhere.

It's one game. I'm cool with letting him live the dream for the meantime, it's not like we have anything better at the moment, but we HAVE to do better than him later.

Where do you expect us to get? I've got no time for this if people are going to trounce a player BEFORE he fails. We're talking about a pitcher that gave up 2 runs in his first inning up from the minors and then has given up 1 run in his next 13 innings.

savafan
08-05-2009, 11:24 PM
Where do you expect us to get? I've got no time for this if people are going to trounce a player BEFORE he fails. We're talking about a pitcher that gave up 2 runs in his first inning up from the minors and then has given up 1 run in his next 13 innings.

Brush it off GOYA, this is the building up of another horrible season where many of us here only see every glass on the table as being half empty. Negativity is rampant in almost every topic on the board

reds44
08-05-2009, 11:27 PM
He'll crash and burn, but tonight was fun to watch. Might as well see how it goes for awhile.

KoryMac5
08-05-2009, 11:31 PM
Lehr is a nice feel good story, first time in weeks I watched an entire Reds game throughout. I think we need to give the guy 5 or 6 more starts before we decide where we stand on him. For now I am comfortable with him getting some big league innings. What will be key for him going forward is to hit his spots and not get squeezed by the umpires.

Also a lot has been made of Rolen's preperation and leadership, nothing wrong with having Cueto and Bailey watch this guy pitch for a few weeks. They probably will learn more form him than Dick Pole.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 11:38 PM
Where do you expect us to get? I've got no time for this if people are going to trounce a player BEFORE he fails. We're talking about a pitcher that gave up 2 runs in his first inning up from the minors and then has given up 1 run in his next 13 innings.

Well I thought we were trying to objectively evaluate Lehr as a pitcher.

I'm just saying, I really don't care what Lehr does the rest of the way, if he is anywhere near our 2010 OD rotation, we are screwed.

cincrazy
08-05-2009, 11:46 PM
Brush it off GOYA, this is the building up of another horrible season where many of us here only see every glass on the table as being half empty. Negativity is rampant in almost every topic on the board

I don't think this is looking at the glass half empty. The fact of the matter is, a pitcher with Lehr's stuff has ZERO margin for error. And I mean ZERO. If he misses his spot by an inch, the ball is getting hit 500 feet.

The guy is doing one hell of a job, no question about it. But so was Tom Shearn. And Chris Michalak and his 15 minutes of fame.

But if Pedro Martinez can't get by with a fastball that sits around 85-87, I don't expect Lehr to do much better.

KoryMac5
08-05-2009, 11:49 PM
Well I thought we were trying to objectively evaluate Lehr as a pitcher.

I'm just saying, I really don't care what Lehr does the rest of the way, if he is anywhere near our 2010 OD rotation, we are screwed.

I don't think that stating "I don't care what he does the rest of the way" is being really objective either.

My feeling is this, it's really easy to get caught in a moment like tonight but lets give the kid 5 or 6 starts the rest of the way and see what he can do. I'm not willing to make a judgement on any player until I have seen him multiple times.

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2009, 11:57 PM
I don't think that stating "I don't care what he does the rest of the way" is being really objective either.

My feeling is this, it's really easy to get caught in a moment like tonight but lets give the kid 5 or 6 starts the rest of the way and see what he can do. I'm not willing to make a judgement on any player until I have seen him multiple times.

No i think it's pretty reasonable that a team that wishes to contend shouldn't be making key roster decisions based solely on 2 months of baseball, half of which is built up of 40 man roster ball in September.

That's how duds like Lance Davis and Luke Hudson scratch their way into key roles. If the plan is to contend next year, I honestly don't care what Lehr does the rest of the way, you can't let a guy like that be one of your best 5 starters on paper to begin a season.

savafan
08-06-2009, 12:02 AM
I don't think this is looking at the glass half empty. The fact of the matter is, a pitcher with Lehr's stuff has ZERO margin for error. And I mean ZERO. If he misses his spot by an inch, the ball is getting hit 500 feet.

The guy is doing one hell of a job, no question about it. But so was Tom Shearn. And Chris Michalak and his 15 minutes of fame.

But if Pedro Martinez can't get by with a fastball that sits around 85-87, I don't expect Lehr to do much better.

True. Greg Maddux had comparable stuff, but knew how to pitch. If Lehr could be taught how to locate consistently, I'm not worried. Having 5 fireballers in a rotation gives teams the same thing to look at every night. Speed guys mixed with finesse pitchers and junk ballers is a clever way to build a rotation to mix up hitters on their timing night after night.

KoryMac5
08-06-2009, 12:05 AM
True. Greg Maddux had comparable stuff, but knew how to pitch. If Lehr could be taught how to locate consistently, I'm not worried. Having 5 fireballers in a rotation gives teams the same thing to look at every night. Speed guys mixed with finesse pitchers and junk ballers is a clever way to build a rotation to mix up hitters on their timing night after night.

It's a good point to bring up, as I always felt that Arroyo was most effective when his spot came up after Edison was throwing gas for 6 or 7 innings. Lehr and Bailey back to back might be a good combination.

Razor Shines
08-06-2009, 12:15 AM
I don't think this is looking at the glass half empty. The fact of the matter is, a pitcher with Lehr's stuff has ZERO margin for error. And I mean ZERO. If he misses his spot by an inch, the ball is getting hit 500 feet.

The guy is doing one hell of a job, no question about it. But so was Tom Shearn. And Chris Michalak and his 15 minutes of fame.

But if Pedro Martinez can't get by with a fastball that sits around 85-87, I don't expect Lehr to do much better.

Hey, don't leave out my boy Bobby Livingston.

cincrazy
08-06-2009, 12:17 AM
True. Greg Maddux had comparable stuff, but knew how to pitch. If Lehr could be taught how to locate consistently, I'm not worried. Having 5 fireballers in a rotation gives teams the same thing to look at every night. Speed guys mixed with finesse pitchers and junk ballers is a clever way to build a rotation to mix up hitters on their timing night after night.

Well, Maddux had similar velocity, towards the end anyways, but he also had that 2 seamer that was heading straight towards a lefthanded batter's hip, then darted over the inside corner of the plate. So his velocity wasn't great, but his movement and location was unbelievable. Lehr has good control, but not that good. And he may have movement, but not Greg Maddux movement.

It's fine being a finesse pitcher, many have succeeded. But generally speaking, they normally throw 88-90... not 85. Might not seem like a major difference, but it is to a hitter.

WVRedsFan
08-06-2009, 01:08 AM
I will say this. If Danny R. Herrera is the darling of the RedsZone, why is Lehr the goat? Beats me. I'm a firm believer in going with the hot hand. Lehr has impressed me in that he uses his head when he pitches. No, he doesn't have the "stuff" that everyone talks about, but he does well with what he has. Who knows what his future is? I sure don't, but I do know that putting that trainwreck that Owings is out there so soon is a disaster waiting to happen. Owings may have "stuff," but he's proven to me he can't pitch. Lehr might fall on his face and give up 10 runs the next time, but Owings has proven to me why the Diamondbacks were so willing to give him up for a rent-a-player.

CTA513
08-06-2009, 02:08 AM
I will say this. If Danny R. Herrera is the darling of the RedsZone, why is Lehr the goat? Beats me. I'm a firm believer in going with the hot hand. Lehr has impressed me in that he uses his head when he pitches. No, he doesn't have the "stuff" that everyone talks about, but he does well with what he has. Who knows what his future is? I sure don't, but I do know that putting that trainwreck that Owings is out there so soon is a disaster waiting to happen. Owings may have "stuff," but he's proven to me he can't pitch. Lehr might fall on his face and give up 10 runs the next time, but Owings has proven to me why the Diamondbacks were so willing to give him up for a rent-a-player.

If he does he must never bring it to the mound.

Ron Madden
08-06-2009, 02:25 AM
Yeah, I gotta bring it up after the shutout...

How do you see Lehr playing out...
Do the Reds have anything to work with here...
Is he a once around the league type of guy...

Mind as well have a discussion about it.

Now's the time to find out. one way or another.

Topcat
08-06-2009, 02:28 AM
Nice journeyman who will always have this moment. Don't stop now................. live the moment Justin. I always have a soft spot for guys like him who have paid there dues.

cincrazy
08-06-2009, 08:35 AM
I will say this. If Danny R. Herrera is the darling of the RedsZone, why is Lehr the goat? Beats me. I'm a firm believer in going with the hot hand. Lehr has impressed me in that he uses his head when he pitches. No, he doesn't have the "stuff" that everyone talks about, but he does well with what he has. Who knows what his future is? I sure don't, but I do know that putting that trainwreck that Owings is out there so soon is a disaster waiting to happen. Owings may have "stuff," but he's proven to me he can't pitch. Lehr might fall on his face and give up 10 runs the next time, but Owings has proven to me why the Diamondbacks were so willing to give him up for a rent-a-player.

Danny is a left handed relief pitcher who has TREMENDOUS offspeed pitches, he's used sparingly, and only in favorable situations. Lehr on the other hand faces lefties and righties, and goes through a lineup more than once.

If we started Herrera, I'd be beating the same drum I currently am in regards to Lehr.

jojo
08-06-2009, 08:52 AM
Where do you expect us to get? I've got no time for this if people are going to trounce a player BEFORE he fails. We're talking about a pitcher that gave up 2 runs in his first inning up from the minors and then has given up 1 run in his next 13 innings.

I think that's the weak link in the above argument.

Until Lehr can consistently get righties out in the bigs, he's a 31 yo AAAA pitcher perfectly captured by Guttle's comment.

redsmetz
08-06-2009, 09:00 AM
Nice journeyman who will always have this moment. Don't stop now................. live the moment Justin. I always have a soft spot for guys like him who have paid there dues.

I think this is where I stand. Every successful club needs guys like this in your system who can come up and fill a slot when there's a need. Now that's not saying he may not have turned a corner.

I like his numbers at Louisville this year and last, particularly this year's. He had considerably more success for us at AAA than he did for Philly's club. I wouldn't be surprised if the Phils wouldn't have liked to have had him available. Again, you need to have guys at AAA who are ready to help at the ML level. Personally I'm tired of the AAAA moniker. Baseball history is replete with guys who bounce back and forth between the highest minor league level and the ML's. They're still big leaguers when they're here.

I like that Lehr was ready to help this season. If there's a job he can fill next season, great. If not, no biggie. But, again, you need a guy like Lehr to step up some time or another in a season. Glad he had a great game last night. And that line-up wasn't chopped liver.

M2
08-06-2009, 09:18 AM
I'm glad that as board (for the most part) we've come a long way. We are no longer fooled by guys like Lehr. It was fun to watch and we're all thrilled for the guy, but like was said before we know how this story ends, unfortunately. Know one thinks we should just ship him back to Louisville or anything. By all means keep giving him the ball. What difference does it make at this point, but he's going to start getting pounded eventually.

Good point. After impassioned pleas that Tom Shearn, Osvaldo Fernandez, Luke Hudson, Jose Acevedo, Elizardo Ramirez, Seth Etherton and Jeff Austin were going to be the real thing (and it was amazing how much traction some of those guys got), it's good to see much of the board not getting swept up in Lehrmania.

TRF
08-06-2009, 09:23 AM
Good point. After impassioned pleas that Tom Shearn, Osvaldo Fernandez, Luke Hudson, Jose Acevedo, Elizardo Ramirez, Seth Etherton and Jeff Austin were going to be the real thing (and it was amazing how much traction some of those guys got), it's good to see much of the board not getting swept up in Lehrmania.

Wren't you on the Osvaldo Fernandez train? :D

reds1869
08-06-2009, 09:29 AM
I'm so thrilled for him. I used to work with Tom Shearn's mother and know how much his time with the club meant to the family. The years of struggle paid off with a moment in the sun. I have to imagine it's the same for Lehr and I say good for him. Let the guy pitch, we aren't getting back in contention and he may give a shot in the arm for a brief stretch.

M2
08-06-2009, 09:33 AM
Wren't you on the Osvaldo Fernandez train? :D

Quite the opposite.

Kc61
08-06-2009, 09:37 AM
The test for guys like this is the "second time around the league." Someone as successful as Lehr in 2009 deserves the shot and we'll see.

There are many different formulas for successful pitchers. You never know. The odds are against Lehr but he's doing well, see how teams adjust to him, see how he adjusts back.

It's trial and error, really nothing more or less with a pitcher like this.

PuffyPig
08-06-2009, 10:18 AM
True. Greg Maddux had comparable stuff, but knew how to pitch. If Lehr could be taught how to locate consistently, I'm not worried.

Firstly, if Lehr has comaprable stuff to maddux, he'd have struck out about 10guys per 9 innings in the minors.

Secondly, it's an old wives tale that Maddux had middling stuff. He had great stuff. He may not have throw 95 miles an hour but he had superior movement.

Thirdly, if pitchers could be taught Maddux's control, there would be 100 maddux's out there (instead of none). Lehr is 32. When will the Maddux clone leasons start?

PuffyPig
08-06-2009, 10:20 AM
The test for guys like this is the "second time around the league." Someone as successful as Lehr in 2009 deserves the shot and we'll see.

There are many different formulas for successful pitchers. You never know. The odds are against Lehr but he's doing well, see how teams adjust to him, see how he adjusts back.

It's trial and error, really nothing more or less with a pitcher like this.

There is no successful formula for pitchers in the majors who strike out 4 batters per 9 innings (in the minors no less).

princeton
08-06-2009, 10:30 AM
That was nice, don't get me wrong.

But two starts: 13 IP, 4 K and 7 BB. We know where this story is going right?

not at all. we have no idea. if the Reds were a person, it'd be on Springer talking about wife number 14 and how this one was going to last.

TRF
08-06-2009, 10:34 AM
Quite the opposite.

I must be misremembering. Somebody was quite high on him, thinking he was quite the sleeper.

BRM
08-06-2009, 10:44 AM
I must be misremembering. Somebody was quite high on him, thinking he was quite the sleeper.

It was some poster named TRF. He was quite the loon.

CrackerJack
08-06-2009, 10:44 AM
Hey Bob C thought it was "like winning the World Series" and we should all cheer up.

So, there you go, time for a Justin Lehr bobblehead night and Championship ceremony.

RedlegJake
08-06-2009, 11:10 AM
This is a perfect season for Lehr to get his moment. Let him finish the year in the 5th spot. Even as one of the board's rosiest optimist's though, I have to agree that Lehr isn't going to cut it long term. He's a terrific type of guy to have in AAA as an emergency plan. I'm happy for his shutout, and hope he has a couple good outings but the reality for me is the fear that if he has a brief run of effectiveness this organization suddenly thinks they've found an answer for next year's rotation. 32 y/o's who k 4 per 9 and throw 85 mph without exceptional control or movement get eaten by the grizzly bear of probability sooner or later.

I(heart)Freel
08-06-2009, 11:11 AM
Why couldnt Lehr be the 2010 long man?

Or is Kip Wells the answer?

M2
08-06-2009, 12:00 PM
I must be misremembering. Somebody was quite high on him, thinking he was quite the sleeper.

A bunch of folks were. They didn't think he was a sleeper either. I remember Jax being particularly strident about it.

TRF
08-06-2009, 12:02 PM
Ding! that's who it was.

I knew someone thought he was going to be a key pitcher for the Reds.

Chip R
08-06-2009, 12:06 PM
A bunch of folks were. They didn't think he was a sleeper either. I remember Jax being particularly strident about it.


Oswaldo was undefeated in international competition.

Tom Servo
08-06-2009, 12:24 PM
Hey, don't leave out my boy Bobby Livingston.
Hey I still think if he hadn't gotten injured Livingston could have been a decent #5 starter. He was quite the crafty lefthander and could even hit (at least in that one game against Atlanta).

Falls City Beer
08-06-2009, 12:27 PM
Hey I still think if he hadn't gotten injured Livingston could have been a decent #5 starter. He was quite the crafty lefthander and could even hit (at least in that one game against Atlanta).

The Reds currently hold the world's record for 5th starters on a given 40 man roster.

11larkin11
08-06-2009, 06:03 PM
Really, I watched the game and saw that curveball and splitter. Someone look at those two pitches and tell me he doesn't have "stuff". His fastball has movement and he locates it well. He has a chance to make this squad next year, although I'd prefer it as the long man in the pen because I hope to sign two starters this winter.

cincrazy
08-06-2009, 06:20 PM
Why couldnt Lehr be the 2010 long man?

Or is Kip Wells the answer?

If Kip Wells is the answer to ANYTHING next year, we're due for another 90 loss campaign.

cincrazy
08-06-2009, 06:22 PM
Really, I watched the game and saw that curveball and splitter. Someone look at those two pitches and tell me he doesn't have "stuff". His fastball has movement and he locates it well. He has a chance to make this squad next year, although I'd prefer it as the long man in the pen because I hope to sign two starters this winter.

He had a great game. As I've said before. But to just go by that one game and say that he has good "stuff" is a bit premature. I also saw his previous start, where he walked every other batter, couldn't strike anyone out, and was easily hittable.

His walk rate might have been good in the minors, his control may have been great. But you don't have to pitch around career minor leaguers, even with 85 mph stuff. In MLB, if you challenge someone with a first pitch 85 mph fastball, you better expect a new baseball more often than not.

membengal
08-06-2009, 06:57 PM
Lot of heartbreak in hoping the Reds have found the right-handed Jamie Moyer...we can all hope, as long as we understand that it is just that, hope.

SMcGavin
08-06-2009, 07:52 PM
If Lehr ends up in the rotation for the next month plus and Maloney stays in AAA, that would be completely typical of the way the Reds usually operate.

Spitball
08-06-2009, 11:42 PM
I remember Lance Davis using his 88 mph fastball to beat the Tigers in 2001 in a complete game apparation. I think sometimes soft tossers hit their spots and catch teams by surprise. Unless he is a lefty dart thrower like Denny Moyer, it doesn't happen often.

TheNext44
08-07-2009, 02:17 AM
Firstly, if Lehr has comaprable stuff to maddux, he'd have struck out about 10guys per 9 innings in the minors.

Secondly, it's an old wives tale that Maddux had middling stuff. He had great stuff. He may not have throw 95 miles an hour but he had superior movement.

Thirdly, if pitchers could be taught Maddux's control, there would be 100 maddux's out there (instead of none). Lehr is 32. When will the Maddux clone leasons start?

Maddux actually could throw 95 MPH, but chose to stay around 91-92 to keep his legendary movement. He popped a few in at 95 when he had to.

That's why Maddux was so great. He had the stuff and the brains.

reds44
08-07-2009, 02:29 AM
Firstly, if Lehr has comaprable stuff to maddux, he'd have struck out about 10guys per 9 innings in the minors.

Secondly, it's an old wives tale that Maddux had middling stuff. He had great stuff. He may not have throw 95 miles an hour but he had superior movement.

Thirdly, if pitchers could be taught Maddux's control, there would be 100 maddux's out there (instead of none). Lehr is 32. When will the Maddux clone leasons start?
Yeah, Lehr has the stuff of Maddux when he was like 40.

reds44
08-07-2009, 02:31 AM
Why couldnt Lehr be the 2010 long man?

Or is Kip Wells the answer?
If either of those two are the answer to any question other than "who don't you want on your team in 2010" then the Reds are in trouble.

TheNext44
08-07-2009, 02:31 AM
Josh Fogg once pitched a shutout. So did Dave Williams. Kip Wells did it twice.

I wish Lehr all the best and hope he turns into a Bob Tewksbury. No way to know without sending him out there.

But the Cubs are a free swinging club, and he took advantage of that. I have a feeling a more patient lineup, like the Phillies or Cardinals, might be a bit tougher for him.

Well see....

reds44
08-07-2009, 02:33 AM
This is Chris Michalak 2.0.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200608120.shtml

Hell, at least he was left handed.

Blitz Dorsey
08-07-2009, 02:44 AM
If Kip Wells is the answer to ANYTHING next year, we're due for another 90 loss campaign.

If Kip Wells is the answer, the question must be: "Who should we sign if we want to keep sucking?"

Ron Madden
08-07-2009, 02:54 AM
Do I have faith in Justin Lehr? No. When your a Reds Fan all you have is hope.

The Reds are dead in the water for 2009. Like I said earlier might as well run him out there and find out one way or the other. If he gets his head beat in we wont have to hear or read the laments like we have for Livingston and Shearn.

nate
08-07-2009, 09:03 AM
Josh Fogg once pitched a shutout. So did Dave Williams. Kip Wells did it twice.

I wish Lehr all the best and hope he turns into a Bob Tewksbury. No way to know without sending him out there.

But the Cubs are a free swinging club, and he took advantage of that. I have a feeling a more patient lineup, like the Phillies or Cardinals, might be a bit tougher for him.

Well see....

Eric Milton threw a no-hitter!

LvJ
08-12-2009, 12:43 AM
Lehr for Cy Young

Screwball
08-12-2009, 12:45 AM
Lehr for Cy Young

What, did he get traded to Toronto?

I(heart)Freel
08-12-2009, 09:04 AM
Another good outing.

I'm wondering how many the guy needs to throw before it's considered legit on RZ?

BRM
08-12-2009, 09:06 AM
12 baserunners in 6 innings. Sounds like he flirted with trouble but managed to pitch his way out of it.

Highlifeman21
08-12-2009, 09:08 AM
Another good outing.

I'm wondering how many the guy needs to throw before it's considered legit on RZ?

He's roster chaff.

A journeyman.

AAAA or BOR at best.

Just wait until the NL gets the book on Lehr, and we'll see how many good outings he turns out then.

I'll enjoy it while it lasts, but I don't expect it to last much longer.

HokieRed
08-12-2009, 09:13 AM
Seems to me he's been having success despite it being pretty obvious what he does. It's not a very hard book to read: 86 MPH fastball, curve, change. His location's been good the last two starts. His problems are likely to start, IMO, when his location starts being less than perfect rather than when the league figures him out. The harder roster question about him might be whether you keep him next year as a bullpen guy who can occasionally start in a real squeeze. Till then, I just keep rooting for him.

RANDY IN INDY
08-12-2009, 09:29 AM
I think Lehr's success depends on how well he can locate his stuff. He has to be precise and really mix things up to succeed. If he can't do that on a regular basis, he will get hit hard. If he can continue to "paint" and miss the sweet part of the bat, he could be quite good. His location the last two games was so much better than his first outing. I think he was really nervous that first game. Will be interesting to watch cause he is gonna get some opportunity.

durl
08-12-2009, 09:46 AM
We've seen plenty of effective pitchers who focus on 2 things: location and movement.

It doesn't bother me that much that his fast ball is around 87-88. I don't care if a guy throws 65 or 125, he just needs to get runners out. Lehr allowed way too many base runners to make me comfortable, but he was also facing a pretty good ball club...plus he kept Pujols in check. I'm pulling for the guy to keep it up.

flyer85
08-12-2009, 09:49 AM
from above

lollipopcurve
08-12-2009, 09:55 AM
Smoke and mirrors, but he's smart. Over the long haul, he may be a better #5 than Owings, because he's got a more varied repertoire, he throws strikes and he mixes it up well. Still, the stuff is extremely marginal. He's going to have to show he can work into the 7th inning fairly frequently in order to lay a claim to a regular turn.

HokieRed
08-12-2009, 10:24 AM
Smoke and mirrors, but he's smart. Over the long haul, he may be a better #5 than Owings, because he's got a more varied repertoire, he throws strikes and he mixes it up well. Still, the stuff is extremely marginal. He's going to have to show he can work into the 7th inning fairly frequently in order to lay a claim to a regular turn.

Agree. Hopefully next year we won't have to be trying to decide between Owings and Lehr for the fifth spot, but we may well be (depending on acquisitions.) Where he might fit in is as a reliever who can do more than pitch one inning--or Owings might also help this way. Whether Lehr can keep the extreme sharpness he needs in a reliever's regimen may be an issue. What he will have done, if he has a few more good starts, is to pitch himself onto somebody's 40 man roster for 2010.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2009, 10:27 AM
What he will have done, if he has a few more good starts, is to pitch himself onto somebody's 40 man roster for 2010.

Agree. Don't think he's quite there yet, but almost. Given his tutelege of Bailey, you'd have to think the Reds are going to be predisposed to keeping him.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2009, 10:29 AM
Another good outing.

I'm wondering how many the guy needs to throw before it's considered legit on RZ?

I don't know how you could watch that game and come away thinking "I want me some more of that."

Lehr was basically one mistake away from getting shelled last night. Nobody can live on the edge like that and survive.

That was one of the luckier performances I've seen in the year. Agains the Cubs he was at least pitching about as good as he can... yesterday, was not so good.

nate
08-12-2009, 10:54 AM
Another good outing.

I'm wondering how many the guy needs to throw before it's considered legit on RZ?

Well, if he can put together a season or two of a couple hundred innings pitched with some good strikeout numbers, low HR and walks allowed, I would think that would go a long way.

That would be more "legit" to me than 20 IP.

YMMV.

SMcGavin
08-12-2009, 06:29 PM
We've seen plenty of effective pitchers who focus on 2 things: location and movement.

It doesn't bother me that much that his fast ball is around 87-88. I don't care if a guy throws 65 or 125, he just needs to get runners out. Lehr allowed way too many base runners to make me comfortable, but he was also facing a pretty good ball club...plus he kept Pujols in check. I'm pulling for the guy to keep it up.

I don't care how fast he throws either, but 5 K in 20 IP is awful.

Ltlabner
08-12-2009, 06:49 PM
Well, if he can put together a season or two of a couple hundred innings pitched with some good strikeout numbers, low HR and walks allowed, I would think that would go a long way.

That would be more "legit" to me than 20 IP.

YMMV.

And Bingo was his name-o.

He'll get millage this year due to the pitching injuries, but his stuff has to be working and location dead on to work. You just can't walk that razors edge for long and be successful IMO. His Cubs game was great and fun, the other two outings, not so much.

He's much closer to being "what's the name of that guy who pitched for us a few years back........" than "wow, this guy defies logic. Wonder what sort of phat contact he'll get as a free agent".

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 07:18 PM
I don't know how you could watch that game and come away thinking "I want me some more of that."

Lehr was basically one mistake away from getting shelled last night. Nobody can live on the edge like that and survive.

That was one of the luckier performances I've seen in the year. Agains the Cubs he was at least pitching about as good as he can... yesterday, was not so good.

If he does that every other game, and gets shelled every other game, he'll be one of the best 5th starters in the majors, and better than Owings and Bailey so far this year.

Still not sure he can do that, only time will tell, but guys with similar stuff have had fine careers as back of the rotation starters and middle relievers.

Cyclone792
08-12-2009, 07:21 PM
If Justin Lehr is in the Reds' rotation in 2010, well, then the Reds won't be worth watching in 2010.

GAC
08-12-2009, 07:50 PM
Teams have guys like Lehr, who is 31, in AAA just to fulfill what he is doing now..... someone gets hurt and you need a body. It's not like he's been somehow missed or overlooked all these years. There's a sound reason.

He's not an over-powering pitching. He relies heavily on location. He definitely pitches to contact, so you better have the D behind him. The guy gave up 11 hits last night.

tommycash
08-12-2009, 07:55 PM
To me, right now, Lehr looks good. I would give him a definate invitation to make the club next year. I mean, I wouldn't pay him more than league minimum next year, but he might help you out as a long reliever, spot starter. He is not a long term option anywhere, but maybe he could have a decent couple of years in the future. Just my opinion though. I pushed for him to get a chance last year, when he was doing well in AAA.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2009, 08:18 PM
If he does that every other game, and gets shelled every other game, he'll be one of the best 5th starters in the majors, and better than Owings and Bailey so far this year.

Still not sure he can do that, only time will tell, but guys with similar stuff have had fine careers as back of the rotation starters and middle relievers.

If Lehr continues to pitch like he did last night, he will be one of the, if not the worst starting pitchers in baseball. For all the "good" he's done since he's come up, Lehr is sporting an xFIP of 5.54.

He stinks. He's not a major league pitcher. He's got guts, smarts, and basically every scrap attribute one could want in a major leaguer. Unfortunately he's missing the requisite skills to work. As such, his upside is basically 8th starter. Stash him in AAA, use him if a bunch of injuries happen. But if he's anywhere near the rotation in 2010, the Reds are screwed.

I said this earlier... if Lehr had Bailey's skills, he'd be one of the best pitchers in baseball. But that's life.

PuffyPig
08-12-2009, 08:21 PM
I don't know how you could watch that game and come away thinking "I want me some more of that."

Lehr was basically one mistake away from getting shelled last night. Nobody can live on the edge like that and survive.

That was one of the luckier performances I've seen in the year. Agains the Cubs he was at least pitching about as good as he can... yesterday, was not so good.


So, to summarize, when he pitches as well as he can, he'll pitch a shut out.

When he pitches poorly, he'll give up 1 run in 6 innings.

Some people are just impossible to please........

Instead of picking on him, you should be thinking of ways of cloning this guy. Lots of outs, and none of those yucky strike outs.

You've been looking at trying to solve BABIP.

It's spelled L-E-H-R.

HokieRed
08-12-2009, 08:44 PM
If Lehr had Bailey's skills, he wouldn't be Lehr. That's life.

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 09:04 PM
If Lehr continues to pitch like he did last night, he will be one of the, if not the worst starting pitchers in baseball. For all the "good" he's done since he's come up, Lehr is sporting an xFIP of 5.54.

He stinks. He's not a major league pitcher. He's got guts, smarts, and basically every scrap attribute one could want in a major leaguer. Unfortunately he's missing the requisite skills to work. As such, his upside is basically 8th starter. Stash him in AAA, use him if a bunch of injuries happen. But if he's anywhere near the rotation in 2010, the Reds are screwed.

I said this earlier... if Lehr had Bailey's skills, he'd be one of the best pitchers in baseball. But that's life.

His xFIP is 3.90 after yesterday's game. It was 3.36 based on yesterday's game alone.

If he pitched like he did yesterday, in every game, he would be most teams #1 or 2 starters, based on xFIP.

SMcGavin
08-12-2009, 09:14 PM
His xFIP is 3.90 after yesterday's game. It was 3.36 based on yesterday's game alone.

If he pitched like he did yesterday, in every game, he would be most teams #1 or 2 starters, based on xFIP.

Not sure where you are getting that.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/2163/

jojo
08-12-2009, 09:15 PM
His xFIP is 3.90 after yesterday's game. It was 3.36 based on yesterday's game alone.

If he pitched like he did yesterday, in every game, he would be most teams #1 or 2 starters, based on xFIP.

To be fair, FIP ignores the 11 hits that happened when Lehr was on the mound......

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2009, 09:23 PM
His xFIP is 3.90 after yesterday's game. It was 3.36 based on yesterday's game alone.

If he pitched like he did yesterday, in every game, he would be most teams #1 or 2 starters, based on xFIP.

I have to question whether you know what xFIP is.

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 10:46 PM
I have to question whether you know what xFIP is.

My apologies. I used this formula which is for FIP.

((HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP) *3.2

Since he has not given up any homers, and that is what xFIP normalizes, I assumed that it would not effect it. I guess I was wrong. I would love to learn why I was wrong, if someone could help. Thanks

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 10:51 PM
To be fair, FIP ignores the 11 hits that happened when Lehr was on the mound......

Mmmmmm.....

This coming from the same person who argued with me that pitchers don't have any control over the hits they allow. :p:

I agree with you. If you watched him pitch, even during his shutout, it is clear that he is not a guy who could post an ERA below 4, in fact, I doubt he would post one well below 5. But I'm not sure he's a guy with a 5.50 ERA either. Maybe, only time will tell. But I see him as more around 4.50-5.00. And that is a best case scenario, if he can continue to hit his spot and change speeds.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2009, 10:52 PM
My apologies. I used this formula which is for FIP.

((HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP) *3.2

Since he has not given up any homers, and that is what xFIP normalizes, I assumed that it would not effect it. I guess I was wrong. I would love to learn why I was wrong, if someone could help. Thanks

The main thing is that xFIP doesn't look at HR's given up as much as it looks at the pitcher's groundball tendencies, and assumes that the amount of HR's given up are mainly a function of that (as in how many balls are put in the air), and difficult to control for a pitcher (which is generally a safe assumption, but there are exceptions).

Therefore, guys who don't strike many hitters out, or induce groundballs, are going to have tons of flyballs in play, and natureally, home runs are going to happen as a result. That's what Lehr is looking at.

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 11:09 PM
The main thing is that xFIP doesn't look at HR's given up as much as it looks at the pitcher's groundball tendencies, and assumes that the amount of HR's given up are mainly a function of that (as in how many balls are put in the air), and difficult to control for a pitcher (which is generally a safe assumption, but there are exceptions).

Therefore, guys who don't strike many hitters out, or induce groundballs, are going to have tons of flyballs in play, and natureally, home runs are going to happen as a result. That's what Lehr is looking at.

Thanks.

But that says to me that xFIP after three games is pretty meaningless.

GB/FB is going to vary greatly game by game, depending on the team, the ballpark, the score of the game, and other factors that vary from game to game. As evident from the fact that his GB/FB was around .67 for the first two games, but 1.5 for the third. It should average out over a season, but not over three games.

Anyway, I would love to see the actual formula for xFIP. I can't find it through google.

Thanks again.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2009, 11:18 PM
Thanks.

But that says to me that xFIP after three games is pretty meaningless.

GB/FB is going to vary greatly game by game, depending on the team, the ballpark, the score of the game, and other factors that vary from game to game. As evident from the fact that his GB/FB was around .67 for the first two games, but 1.5 for the third. It should average out over a season, but not over three games.

Anyway, I would love to see the actual formula for xFIP. I can't find it through google.

Thanks again.

Well basically any stat through 3 games is meaningless. But if it's a better predictor on the aggregate level, then it's a better predictor on the individual level too. But I think for a guy like Lehr, the honus of proof is on him. The results that stats like xFIP show aren't particularly surprising, but actually pretty predictable for a guy of Lehr's track record.

I can't find the formula either (it's used on Hardball times, but they don't have the forumla listed). It would be similar to the FIP formula, but would be tweaked to incorporate flyballs as the main driver for homeruns.

jojo
08-12-2009, 11:53 PM
Mmmmmm.....

This coming from the same person who argued with me that pitchers don't have any control over the hits they allow. :p:

I agree with you. If you watched him pitch, even during his shutout, it is clear that he is not a guy who could post an ERA below 4, in fact, I doubt he would post one well below 5. But I'm not sure he's a guy with a 5.50 ERA either. Maybe, only time will tell. But I see him as more around 4.50-5.00. And that is a best case scenario, if he can continue to hit his spot and change speeds.

Arguing that 11 hits and only 1 K in 6 innings is more telling than his FIP after 6 innings doesn't endorse the notion that a pitcher has great control over the fate of a ball once it's put into play....

TheNext44
08-13-2009, 12:47 AM
Arguing that 11 hits and only 1 K in 6 innings is more telling than his FIP after 6 innings doesn't endorse the notion that a pitcher has great control over the fate of a ball once it's put into play....

I know what you meant, and agree with you. I was just having fun. :D

savafan
08-13-2009, 12:31 PM
At the end of the day, the only 2 stats that matter are wins and losses.

Patrick Bateman
08-13-2009, 12:38 PM
At the end of the day, the only 2 stats that matter are wins and losses.

Fine. You can have your rotation of Justin Lehr, Jason Marquis, Bronson Arroyo, and Jimmy Haynes circa 2002.

Why do we have to pretend that baseball is stuck in some secret dimension taking place in 1952 everytime some crappy Reds pitcher throws a few "gems"?

savafan
08-13-2009, 12:40 PM
Fine. You can have your rotation of Justin Lehr, Jason Marquis, Bronson Arroyo, and Jimmy Haynes circa 2002.

Why do we have to pretend that baseball is stuck in some secret dimension taking place in 1952 everytime some crappy Reds pitcher throws a few "gems"?

I'm not pretending anything. I appreciate every "gem", whether thrown by a crappy Reds pitcher or a stud Reds pitcher...if such a thing actually exists.

Patrick Bateman
08-13-2009, 01:19 PM
I'm not pretending anything. I appreciate every "gem", whether thrown by a crappy Reds pitcher or a stud Reds pitcher...if such a thing actually exists.

I appreciate them too. I went on record as saying from the beginning that Lehr's performance was maye the most enjoyable game for me this year, whether it was lucky or not. I get a lot of entertainment value out of watching the Reds win even if it's due to strong performances from a Willy Taveras or a Josh Fogg.

But you and I both know that saying "The only stat that matters is wins and losses" when we are trying to evaluate the future performance of pitchers is hogwash.

savafan
08-13-2009, 03:41 PM
I appreciate them too. I went on record as saying from the beginning that Lehr's performance was maye the most enjoyable game for me this year, whether it was lucky or not. I get a lot of entertainment value out of watching the Reds win even if it's due to strong performances from a Willy Taveras or a Josh Fogg.

But you and I both know that saying "The only stat that matters is wins and losses" when we are trying to evaluate the future performance of pitchers is hogwash.

If you depend on the law of averages, yes. I depend on the laws of performance, therefore I won't try to evaluate future performance, because that's not my job, I'll just evaluate current performance. ;)

GAC
08-13-2009, 05:43 PM
Did anyone hear the stat that Marty gave last night?

Since 1990, Lehr is only the 3rd pitcher to give up 11 hits (singles) and only 1 run through 6 innings pitched. Something to that nature.

KoryMac5
08-13-2009, 05:57 PM
Fine. You can have your rotation of Justin Lehr, Jason Marquis, Bronson Arroyo, and Jimmy Haynes circa 2002.

Why do we have to pretend that baseball is stuck in some secret dimension taking place in 1952 everytime some crappy Reds pitcher throws a few "gems"?

Right now Lehr is actually one of the few Reds worth watching. So I will continue to enjoy every craptastic minute of it. :beerme:

LvJ
08-16-2009, 03:39 PM
Another solid outing :)

fearofpopvol1
08-16-2009, 03:57 PM
very happy for lehr. the reds do need innings eaters right now and it's great that he is helping aid with that.

i actually think he is earning himself a spot in a rotation in another organization (a la the way Phil Dumatrait did). may not get to pitch too long, but he is probably earning himself that shot.

Highlifeman21
08-16-2009, 04:00 PM
very happy for lehr. the reds do need innings eaters right now and it's great that he is helping aid with that.

i actually think he is earning himself a spot in a rotation in another organization (a la the way Phil Dumatrait did). may not get to pitch too long, but he is probably earning himself that shot.

MLB organizations where Lehr could pitch:

Baltimore
Kansas City
Washington
Pittsburgh
San Diego
... and unfortunately the Reds

So sure, if we think we've really got something tradeable at the end of the year with Lehr, then let's target these 5 teams.

savafan
08-16-2009, 05:51 PM
i actually think he is earning himself a spot in a rotation in another organization (a la the way Phil Dumatrait did). may not get to pitch too long, but he is probably earning himself that shot.

Yeah, because if a guy pitches well here, we don't really want him. I'd much rather watch Micah Owings get bombed every 5th day. After all, Owings sure can swing the bat.

PuffyPig
08-16-2009, 07:57 PM
Yeah, because if a guy pitches well here, we don't really want him. I'd much rather watch Micah Owings get bombed every 5th day. After all, Owings sure can swing the bat.


You are either missinbg the point entirely, or simply ignoring it.

No one is saying that Lehr has gotten bad results in terms of runs allowed.

No one is saying they are not happy he is getting good results in terms of runs allowed.

Most everyone is saying that based on a number of factors that have proven effective in terms of predicting future performance, Lehr is not likely to continue getting good results.

savafan
08-16-2009, 08:00 PM
You are either missinbg the point entirely, or simply ignoring it.

No one is saying that Lehr has gotten bad results in terms of runs allowed.

No one is saying they are not happy he is getting good results in terms of runs allowed.

Most everyone is saying that based on a number of factors that have proven effective in terms of predicting future performance, Lehr is not likely to continue getting good results.

Yeah, they said that after the first nice game he pitched.

They said it after the second good outing.

They're still saying it now after the third.

How's that for predicting future performance?

Highlifeman21
08-16-2009, 08:02 PM
Yeah, they said that after the first nice game he pitched.

They said it after the second good outing.

They're still saying it now after the third.

How's that for predicting future performance?

What's that phrase?

Went to the well one too many times?

PuffyPig
08-16-2009, 08:08 PM
Yeah, they said that after the first nice game he pitched.

They said it after the second good outing.

They're still saying it now after the third.

How's that for predicting future performance?

Then time will tell.

savafan
08-16-2009, 08:13 PM
What's that phrase?

Went to the well one too many times?

Okay, I'll admit that I don't know what Lehr did in his last outing, as I've been gone since Friday after work at Ohio Renaissance Festival rehearsals all weekend, but I was going off of LvJ's post that Lehr had another solid outing. Am I incorrect, was that a facetious remark?

Still, would you rather have a pitcher who gives you a chance of winning 50% of the time or a guy who goes 5-13?

nate
08-16-2009, 08:17 PM
Yeah, they said that after the first nice game he pitched.

They said it after the second good outing.

They're still saying it now after the third.

How's that for predicting future performance?

We're not in the future yet.

savafan
08-16-2009, 08:18 PM
We're not in the future yet.

Nope. If we could accurately predict the future, would we all still be Reds fans?

PuffyPig
08-16-2009, 08:21 PM
Still, would you rather have a pitcher who gives you a chance of winning 50% of the time or a guy who goes 5-13?


Of course we'd rather have the first, but that's not likely Lehr.

savafan
08-16-2009, 08:23 PM
Of course we'd rather have the first, but that's not likely Lehr.

It has been thus far. Ride the wave. Lots of guys have had decent careers with middling stuff.

nate
08-16-2009, 08:29 PM
Nope. If we could accurately predict the future, would we all still be Reds fans?

Yes.

In the future, I win the lottery and move the team to Nashville. They become "The Nashville Nates" and Redszone become "Natezone." I present Lehr with a gold watch and make him a "hype man" before games (along with Adam Rosales.)

I also cover all of FCB's outstanding bets.

It ain't easy!

:cool:

PuffyPig
08-16-2009, 08:29 PM
It has been thus far. Ride the wave. Lots of guys have had decent careers with middling stuff.

Name a successful major league starter with a decent career with a K/9 rate
of 2.25 and a K/W rate of 0.63.

You'd be hard pressed to find a another pitcher who survived 4 starts with those numbers.


His xFIP before todays start was 5.55.

WMR
08-16-2009, 08:31 PM
Yes.

In the future, I win the lottery and move the team to Nashville. They become "The Nashville Nates" and Redszone become "Natezone." I present Lehr with a gold watch and make him a "hype man" before games (along with Adam Rosales.)

I also cover all of FCB's outstanding bets.

It ain't easy!

:cool:

Unfortunately that last goal will likely bankrupt you and force you to sell the team. ;)

GOYA
08-17-2009, 07:50 AM
Name a successful major league starter with a decent career with a K/9 rate of 2.25 and a K/W rate of 0.63.

You'd be hard pressed to find a another pitcher who survived 4 starts with those numbers.

It could be that his K/BB over his last 3 starts is 3.5.

reds1869
08-17-2009, 08:12 AM
Lehr keeps answering the bell. Until he falls flat on his face we should keep running him out there. We have nothing to lose at this point. As far as next season goes, I do believe he deserves a shot at the pen as a long relief man. He is certainly better suited to the role than Owings. Now, if he is anywhere near our 2010 starting five we are in BIG trouble and the FO did not do their job.

PuffyPig
08-17-2009, 09:24 AM
It could be that his K/BB over his last 3 starts is 3.5.

Larger sample sizes are better than smaller sample size.

Look at his career. He simply doesn't miss enough bats, even in the minor leagues, to project to be a major league starter for anyrthing other than a stop gap period.

Over those last 3 starts, he's had 7 K's in 21 innings. The opnlu way a pitcher doing that could be even a bit successful over a long period of time is have unbelievable control and not give up many HR's. He gives up lots of FB's, but currently sports a 3% HR/FB rate. Whe that normalizes to around 10-12% (and it will), his ERA will be in the 5's.

GOYA
08-17-2009, 09:57 AM
When does he start to suck? This year? Next year?

traderumor
08-17-2009, 10:08 AM
When does he start to suck? This year? Next year?I want to see the Reds start to behave like a team building for a championship. Justin Lehr types are not a part of that mindset. Lehr is the same mindset that gave us historic moments like the Boone and Larkin brothers playing in the same game, and the current promotion of Kevin Barker. Nice, sentimental moves that create warm fuzzies, but are not selling too many $20 tickets and $7 beers to watch a game from the outfield.

Highlifeman21
08-17-2009, 10:13 AM
I want to see the Reds start to behave like a team building for a championship. Justin Lehr types are not a part of that mindset. Lehr is the same mindset that gave us historic moments like the Boone and Larkin brothers playing in the same game, and the current promotion of Kevin Barker. Nice, sentimental moves that create warm fuzzies, but are not selling too many $20 tickets and $7 beers to watch a game from the outfield.

Exactly.

Lehr is roster filler b/c we don't have any better options.

So, we either need to get better options for 2010 and going forward, or we need to continue running Lehr out there hoping Cinderella's coach doesn't turn back into a pumpkin.

nate
08-17-2009, 10:16 AM
I want to see the Reds start to behave like a team building for a championship. Justin Lehr types are not a part of that mindset. Lehr is the same mindset that gave us historic moments like the Boone and Larkin brothers playing in the same game, and the current promotion of Kevin Barker. Nice, sentimental moves that create warm fuzzies, but are not selling too many $20 tickets and $7 beers to watch a game from the outfield.

If somehow we could convert warm fuzzies into wins.

traderumor
08-17-2009, 10:28 AM
If somehow we could convert warm fuzzies into wins.Yet the Reds continue to look like the 90s Bengals, where guys stopped to get a few paychecks and build up pension credit before re-entering the real world.

Patrick Bateman
08-17-2009, 10:57 AM
When does he start to suck? This year? Next year?

The point is, he's already started sucking.

We KNOW that ERA is a poor stat, and is easily maniupulated by small samples.

My general thesis is that Lehr has not pitched well to this point. It is very possible to be able to pitch poorly and sustain a good ERA over short periods of time. I'm in on way of saying that peripheral stats are infallible, but Lehr isn't even close to having what is necessary to be able to go against the grain and succeed.

PuffyPig
08-17-2009, 12:25 PM
It is very possible to be able to pitch poorly and sustain a bad ERA over short periods of time.

Really going out on a limb there.;)

I assume you meant "good ERA".

Patrick Bateman
08-17-2009, 01:20 PM
Really going out on a limb there.;)

I assume you meant "good ERA".

Don't talk back old man.

Maybe you could do that when I was named after a certain former Red, but I think Bateman desevers a certain level of respect.

jojo
08-17-2009, 05:26 PM
Don't talk back old man.

Maybe you could do that when I was named after a certain former Red, but I think Bateman desevers a certain level of respect.

I don't know who you used to be named after so this is very stressful as I can't figure out whether I'm supposed to like you or hate you. :cool:

Highlifeman21
08-17-2009, 05:30 PM
I don't know who you used to be named after so this is very stressful as I can't figure out whether I'm supposed to like you or hate you. :cool:

Austin Kearns

HokieRed
08-21-2009, 10:18 PM
Lehr v. Owings for next year's #5? Anybody feel better about Lehr after seeing Owings tonight?

mth123
08-21-2009, 10:21 PM
Lehr v. Owings for next year's #5? Anybody feel better about Lehr after seeing Owings tonight?

They need a competent starter. Already too many back-end guys. I don't want to see either in the rotation in 2010. Not sure the Reds can draw or pay anyone in Free Agency, but FCB is right that Doug Davis would make a nice addition.

Patrick Bateman
08-21-2009, 10:35 PM
Lehr v. Owings for next year's #5? Anybody feel better about Lehr after seeing Owings tonight?

Owings is terrible.

That doesn't make me feel good about Lehr though.

Get someone else. These guys aren't major league calibre pitchers.

Highlifeman21
08-21-2009, 10:38 PM
Owings is terrible.

That doesn't make me feel good about Lehr though.

Get someone else. These guys aren't major league calibre pitchers.

We have plenty of terrible on the pitching staff.

That's been a constant during The Lost Decade.

HokieRed
08-21-2009, 10:50 PM
I agree we need one more starter from outside but I'd rather have Lehr in the sixth spot than Owings (or 5th spot, depending on how one views Homer).

TheNext44
08-21-2009, 11:10 PM
Owings is terrible.

That doesn't make me feel good about Lehr though.

Get someone else. These guys aren't major league calibre pitchers.

Actually, Owings is, kinda. His ERA is right around the major league average for fifth starters. More than half the teams in the majors have worse #5 starters, including the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels and Cardinals.

Yeah, it hurts to watch him pitch, but you are not going to improve on him without spending valuable resources. The could do a lot worse, and have, than Owings and Lehr battling it out for the 5th rotation spot next spring.

It was only a few years ago when guys like them were battling it out for the Opening Day assignment for the Reds.

HokieRed
08-21-2009, 11:17 PM
I think it's time for the Owings to the bullpen experiment to begin.

HokieRed
08-21-2009, 11:42 PM
Addendum: very likely that Kip Wells will also be a better option for the rotation than Owings in 2010.

Will M
08-22-2009, 12:24 AM
IMO the Reds need the following to field a decent team for 2010:
1. SS
2. another at least average SP pushing Owings to the pen
3. 2nd catcher
4. LH bat to split time in LF with Gomes

My wife said yesterday "the Reds should start by replacing the players who are beyond sucky with average players. then they can worry about upgrading the average players later". As much as I would like a TOR starter to replace Owings in the rotation the Reds would be improved if they just replaced him with another 200+ IP pitcher with an ERA+ of 100 (similar to Harang, Arroyo)

Ron Madden
08-22-2009, 02:36 AM
I agree we need one more starter from outside but I'd rather have Lehr in the sixth spot than Owings (or 5th spot, depending on how one views Homer).

I'm afraid we need more than one more starter from outside of the organization.

We also need offensive players with the ability to avoid outs by getting on base and a few that avoid outs while acquiring extra bases.



(JMHO)

HokieRed
08-22-2009, 09:15 AM
IMO the Reds need the following to field a decent team for 2010:
1. SS
2. another at least average SP pushing Owings to the pen
3. 2nd catcher
4. LH bat to split time in LF with Gomes

My wife said yesterday "the Reds should start by replacing the players who are beyond sucky with average players. then they can worry about upgrading the average players later". As much as I would like a TOR starter to replace Owings in the rotation the Reds would be improved if they just replaced him with another 200+ IP pitcher with an ERA+ of 100 (similar to Harang, Arroyo)

Agree, except I think the catcher needs to be a first catcher (or maybe a 1.5, with Hanigan the other 1.5). I also think it's 1. important to get better now, and 2. we won't be able to do all four things above. So I put SP first and some kind of hitter--any kind of hitter second (figuring two additions is about all we're going to be able to expect). It's critical to get to .500 next year; contention's out of the question.

RedsManRick
08-22-2009, 11:44 AM
IMO the Reds need the following to field a decent team for 2010:
1. SS
2. another at least average SP pushing Owings to the pen
3. 2nd catcher
4. LH bat to split time in LF with Gomes

My wife said yesterday "the Reds should start by replacing the players who are beyond sucky with average players. then they can worry about upgrading the average players later". As much as I would like a TOR starter to replace Owings in the rotation the Reds would be improved if they just replaced him with another 200+ IP pitcher with an ERA+ of 100 (similar to Harang, Arroyo)

You have a smart wife, my friend. This really isn't that complicated.

mth123
09-18-2009, 04:36 AM
Bumping this thread to put a few thoughts out there.

Lehr seems like a good enough guy that I'm happy that he got some more big league time, but his age and recent performances suggest its time to put him on the back burner and remove him from the rotation. He's had 5 poor starts in a row and he shouldn't be in the plans for the 40 Man Roster or anything beyond a AAA contract for 2010. He'll probably be DFAd imediately after the end of the year.

With Cueto back, a rotation of Arroyo, Wells, Bailey, Cueto and Matt Maloney seems like the best option for the rest of the season. Wells and Maloney both are still in the conversation for 2010. Wells has the look of a major league starter (but most likely not the caliber needed to bump this rotation to the next level) and while I remain a Maloney skeptic, his outing before the blister was very encouraging and last night's struggle and survival routine should earn him another shot. I'd like to see Maloney in there for the remaining 3 or 4 starts this year with the hope that he can pitch well enough to make himself a legit option for a role in 2010 or an interesting piece for a deal. Teams are always looking for major league ready young and cheap starters and a few decent starts may give Walt something to work with when the offseason trading begins.