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Benihana
08-07-2009, 12:36 PM
Homer Bailey currently has an ERA of 7.06. While he is young and must take his lumps, it is debatable as to whether or not he's even showing improvement. While his upside has always been there, I believe he MUST show SOME improvement if he is to be counted on whatsoever going forward. Whether or not we buy it, the Rolen trade indicates the Reds front office wants to compete in 2010.

So my question is this- If Homer Bailey doesn't lower his ERA below 6.00 by the end of the season, what should be done with him? At what point do you forego his upside for the sake of the team?

BRM
08-07-2009, 12:38 PM
What are the choices? He's out of options after this season, right? He either sticks in the majors with the Reds in 2010 or he's gone. I think Walt will give him every opportunity to stick in the rotation next year.

WMR
08-07-2009, 12:40 PM
You throw him out there in 2010 and hope he pitches better.

Considering his arb and options situation that's the only real thing you can do, outside of trading him for very little return.

nate
08-07-2009, 12:44 PM
I'd primarily like to see him shave a walk off his BB/9 and add a strikeout to his K/9 over his remaining starts.

Oh, and go back and time and have the Reds stop screwing him up.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 12:53 PM
You throw him out there in 2010 and hope he pitches better.

Considering his arb and options situation that's the only real thing you can do, outside of trading him for very little return.

I used to agree with this, but he must show some kind of improvement before I'm ready to watch this every fifth day for a full season. Sure, young pitchers will take their lumps but they have to show improvement. Otherwise at a certain point, a lemon is just a lemon. Even the JimBo-led Reds realized this a few years ago with Brandon Claussen.

Chip R
08-07-2009, 12:56 PM
Dusty thinks Homer is close. ;)

WMR
08-07-2009, 12:57 PM
I used to agree with this, but he must show some kind of improvement before I'm ready to watch this every fifth day for a full season. At a certain point, a lemon is just a lemon. Even the JimBo-led Reds realized this a few years ago with Brandon Claussen.

:(

Are we really to that point with Homer? He's still a baby in terms of a pitcher's growth.. 22 right?

I just really fear that the way the Reds absolutely screwed the pooch on his arb clock that he'll put it together a couple years after he leaves Cincy.

Of course, maybe he puts it together BECAUSE he leaves Cincinnati. There's a depressing thought for you.

We have seen some flashes from Homer this season...

NJReds
08-07-2009, 01:03 PM
Assuming he doesn't show enough to make the rotation in spring training, I'd put him in the bullpen. If the Yankees can put Hughes and Joba in the pen; the Mets put Parnell in the pen; the Sox put Masterson in the pen ... it shouldn't hurt and could help Homer.

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 01:10 PM
I think you let him start in spring training.... but plan on putting him in the bullpen to start the year. Hopefully we will have signed some more established pitchers that start the year in the rotation with the better chance to succeed.

Bailey can likely pitch well out of the pen, perhaps be an asset, so I don't consider that to be a gamble of the roster spot in any sense. When injuries arise, or if Bailey shows something that would suggest he's ready to overtake a member of the rotation, you give him that chance. But no freebies.... putting up an ERA of 7 the rest of the way should in no way provide him the opportunity of a free spot in the rotation.

Chip R
08-07-2009, 01:11 PM
Assuming he doesn't show enough to make the rotation in spring training, I'd put him in the bullpen. If the Yankees can put Hughes and Joba in the pen; the Mets put Parnell in the pen; the Sox put Masterson in the pen ... it shouldn't hurt and could help Homer.

He's never pitched out of the pen before and the Reds have said time and again that they aren't going to do that. I think they should but I also think that ship has sailed.

BRM
08-07-2009, 01:12 PM
I'm definitely on board with putting him in the pen if he can't get it together as a starter by next spring.

jojo
08-07-2009, 01:16 PM
So my question is this- If Homer Bailey doesn't lower his ERA below 6.00 by the end of the season, what should be done with him? At what point do you forego his upside for the sake of the team?

I'm not sure why any decision must be prefaced by whether Homer's ERA is above or below 6.00.

It's simple in my view. The Reds should rid themselves of Homer when doing so makes them better.

There are probably numerous scenarios where they wouldn't actually be better and numerous scenarios where they would be better...

NJReds
08-07-2009, 01:18 PM
He's never pitched out of the pen before and the Reds have said time and again that they aren't going to do that. I think they should but I also think that ship has sailed.

The Reds don't do a lot of things that winning organizations do.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 01:19 PM
nm

BRM
08-07-2009, 01:20 PM
The Reds don't do a lot of things that winning organizations do.

Amen.

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 01:21 PM
I'm not sure why any decision must be prefaced by whether Homer's ERA is above or below 6.00.

It's simple in my view. The Reds should rid themselves of Homer when doing so makes them better.

There are probably numerous scenarios where they wouldn't actually be better and numerous scenarios where they would be better...

To me the real question being posed here, is that assuming Bailey has not been moved on to another organization coming into next season, what do you do with the guy if he still hasn't shown the ability to be a respectable rotation member?

Benihana
08-07-2009, 01:21 PM
I think you let him start in spring training.... but plan on putting him in the bullpen to start the year. Hopefully we will have signed some more established pitchers that start the year in the rotation with the better chance to succeed.

Bailey can likely pitch well out of the pen, perhaps be an asset, so I don't consider that to be a gamble of the roster spot in any sense. When injuries arise, or if Bailey shows something that would suggest he's ready to overtake a member of the rotation, you give him that chance. But no freebies.... putting up an ERA of 7 the rest of the way should in no way provide him the opportunity of a free spot in the rotation.

I agree with most of this, although I'd also consider swapping him for another similarly faded superprospect at a position of need (Brandon Wood?)

I also agree with those that say he may flourish a couple years from now with another organization. Unfortunately, there is not that much that the Reds can do about that now.

M2
08-07-2009, 01:28 PM
I used to agree with this, but he must show some kind of improvement before I'm ready to watch this every fifth day for a full season. At a certain point, a lemon is just a lemon. Even the JimBo-led Reds realized this a few years ago with Brandon Claussen.

It was actually Krivsky who put the fork in Claussen (and Kullman who acquired him).

It's just with the Reds it often seems like JimBo never left.

TRF
08-07-2009, 01:31 PM
You take your lumps with Bailey ala the Cubs and Maddux circa 1987. The will know what they have by september 2010 if anything.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 01:32 PM
It was actually Krivsky who put the fork in Claussen (and Kullman who acquired him).

It's just with the Reds it often seems like JimBo never left.

Ah, my bad

Chip R
08-07-2009, 01:32 PM
The Reds don't do a lot of things that winning organizations do.


Indeed. But it's not like Earl Weaver's going to take over anytime soon.

NJReds
08-07-2009, 01:35 PM
Indeed. But it's not like Earl Weaver's going to take over anytime soon.

Well, I guess my point was that this is what I would do w/Homer. Not necessarily what the Reds will do. Good organizations do put pitching prospects in the pen. And that's what I'd do with Bailey if he didn't make the rotation out of Spring Training.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 01:35 PM
You take your lumps with Bailey ala the Cubs and Maddux circa 1987. The will know what they have by september 2010 if anything.

The difference is that Bailey is 2 years older than Maddux was, has significantly more major league experience (>50 IP) and has significantly worse results (worse ERA, K/9, BB/9) than Maddux did in 1987.

If Bailey can pull his ERA under 6.00 by the end of the year I'd agree with you that he is showing improvement and we should bear with him.

However if he doesn't...

BRM
08-07-2009, 01:36 PM
The difference is that Bailey is 2 years older than Maddux was, has significantly more major league experience (>50 IP) and has significantly worse results (worse ERA, K/9, BB/9) than Maddux did in 1987.

If Bailey can pull his ERA under 6.00 by the end of the year I'd agree with you that he is showing improvement and we should bear with him.

However if he doesn't...

If he doesn't, put him in the pen.

Jpup
08-07-2009, 01:37 PM
bullpen or whatever.

It's worked great for Phil Hughes. I think the Reds should do the same with Homer.

Roy Tucker
08-07-2009, 01:37 PM
I'd like to see him go to the bullpen but I'm afraid the Reds don't have any better arms to trot out as as starter.

So I'm afraid they'll just continue to flog him in the '50's-style sink or swim kind of mentality they seem to have.

What happened to the vaunted new splitter he was supposed to throw?

M2
08-07-2009, 01:40 PM
If he doesn't, put him in the pen.

If he doesn't, send him hunting with this guy:

http://seanbond.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/dick_cheney.jpg

CarolinaRedleg
08-07-2009, 01:42 PM
Provided he shows improvement, especially with Volquez down for the majority of 2010, and with the uncertainty of keeping Arroyo/Harang, there's no way you cut bait on Bailey.

And I misread. No improvement, try to get a nibble if you can....no nibble, stick him in the pen.

redsmetz
08-07-2009, 01:47 PM
:(

Are we really to that point with Homer? He's still a baby in terms of a pitcher's growth.. 22 right?

I just really fear that the way the Reds absolutely screwed the pooch on his arb clock that he'll put it together a couple years after he leaves Cincy.

Of course, maybe he puts it together BECAUSE he leaves Cincinnati. There's a depressing thought for you.

We have seen some flashes from Homer this season...

Personally I think I've seen a much more mature Bailey this year. And I think he's putting it together. He's young still, he's a year younger than Claussen was when he came to us really.

Sure we've had pitchers who didn't pan out, who never really made good. Certainly the OP can set up his poll however he likes, but I disagree with his original assumption, that Bailey won't improve. I think he has already.

GOYA
08-07-2009, 01:55 PM
Stick with Homer. Bruce too.

I think they'll both get better with a little more age on them.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 01:57 PM
I see some signs of improvement, too, redsmetz. Pitching doesn't always come together on the fan's time table. He is still young and I think he is getting better.

bucksfan2
08-07-2009, 01:58 PM
Provided he shows improvement, especially with Volquez down for the majority of 2010, and with the uncertainty of keeping Arroyo/Harang, there's no way you cut bait on Bailey.

And I misread. No improvement, try to get a nibble if you can....no nibble, stick him in the pen.

He is showing improvements. It just takes time for it all to come together. Since his start against Cleveland in the end of June in which he walked 7 batters, Homer has not walked more than 2 batters a game, with the exception of a 4 walk start against the Brewers.

We need to temper our expectations out of Homer a little bit. They guy has shown better command as of late. I also wonder if the addition of Rolen at 3b will effect him much. His biggest issue right now is to throw more strikes, which he has been doing. Once he harnesses his control watch out. I give him this season and then all of next season before I make any kind of judgment.

Spring~Fields
08-07-2009, 01:58 PM
I think that Bailey has showed some improvement while trying to pitch for a bad team in a pitcher unfriendly park while knowing in the back of his mind that he is always one bad game from being sent back down. Often though without the names or stats I can’t tell the difference between Owings, Cueto, or a Bailey on the mound.

I suspect that the younger pitching will continue to be trading chips for Mr. Jocketty (does he really have other to trade?) and the Reds organization and that some of this young pitching might be served well career wise by a change of scenery to an organization that has good fortune developing young pitching.

I just don’t see how anyone can adequately evaluate the pitchers who pitch for the Reds with their defense, offense, lack of overall talent playing behind them in that ballpark. Would any of us be shocked if a pitcher left the Reds to another organization and performed better ?

Tom Servo
08-07-2009, 02:00 PM
Build a time machine and undo calling him up in 2007.

TRF
08-07-2009, 02:07 PM
The difference is that Bailey is 2 years older than Maddux was, has significantly more major league experience (>50 IP) and has significantly worse results (worse ERA, K/9, BB/9) than Maddux did in 1987.

If Bailey can pull his ERA under 6.00 by the end of the year I'd agree with you that he is showing improvement and we should bear with him.

However if he doesn't...

Can't do anything about his age or experience. That's on the Reds for trashing his development timeline. The ERA is probably closer than we think if adjusted for era.

It's not a perfect comp, but Like I said, start him all year and they will know by next september if he's worth keeping.

M2
08-07-2009, 02:31 PM
Can't do anything about his age or experience. That's on the Reds for trashing his development timeline. The ERA is probably closer than we think if adjusted for era.

It's not a perfect comp, but Like I said, start him all year and they will know by next september if he's worth keeping.

At some point the team has to stop abusing its fans.

If, during the final two months of this season, he's no better than he has been to date, then handing him a rotation slot in 2010 is essentially a white flag move. It would send the message that awarding jobs on merit is out the window and that fans will just have to endure the misery of watching this kid get beaten around on a regular basis.

My take is the Reds and Reds fans have an unhealthy relationship with Homer Bailey. The cord could stand a good severing, otherwise the maudlin melodrama will continue.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:33 PM
Can't do anything about his age or experience. That's on the Reds for trashing his development timeline. The ERA is probably closer than we think if adjusted for era.

Isn't the ERA always closer than we think if adjusted for ERA? :confused::p:


It's not a perfect comp, but Like I said, start him all year and they will know by next september if he's worth keeping.

And if he's not, then we only sacrificed Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke in order to find out. :rolleyes:

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:35 PM
At some point the team has to stop abusing its fans.

If, during the final two months of this season, he's no better than he has been to date, then handing him a rotation slot in 2010 is essentially a white flag move. It would send the message that awarding jobs on merit is out the window and that fans will just have to endure the misery of watching this kid get beaten around on a regular basis.

My take is the Reds and Reds fans have an unhealthy relationship with Homer Bailey. The cord could stand a good severing, otherwise the maudlin melodrama will continue.

Yep. If he doesn't get his ERA under 6.00 in 2009, he's either traded or in the pen in 2010.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:37 PM
Sure we've had pitchers who didn't pan out, who never really made good. Certainly the OP can set up his poll however he likes, but I disagree with his original assumption, that Bailey won't improve. I think he has already.

If you can't put up an ERA under 6.00 in over 100 innings over the course of a ML season, you simply don't belong in the major leagues (let alone in a major league rotation.)

If he can improve enough to get over that (not so lofty) hurdle, then I'm willing to have a little more patience.

Superdude
08-07-2009, 02:39 PM
rotation. I don't think he's too far off at this point. By next year, I think he'll at the very least be a viable fifth starter.

BRM
08-07-2009, 02:40 PM
rotation. I don't think he's too far off at this point. By next year, I think he'll at the very least be a viable fifth starter.

So the Reds will have three #5's next year.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:42 PM
So the Reds will have three #5's next year.

Welcome to the last decade!

CTA513
08-07-2009, 02:46 PM
He'll probably be in the rotation unless payroll is freed up by trading Arroyo and Harang.

dougdirt
08-07-2009, 02:46 PM
I voted for the wrong thing accidentally.... but you put him in your rotation. He may be very Kyle Lohse like in the sense that you will get your good and bad nights, but I think he is going to be ok overall next year (and even the rest of this year). It seems like in his bad games he tends to make one mistake pitch and it always gets him.

jojo
08-07-2009, 02:49 PM
To me the real question being posed here, is that assuming Bailey has not been moved on to another organization coming into next season, what do you do with the guy if he still hasn't shown the ability to be a respectable rotation member?

I think you pitch him #5 until you have a better option for #5. The better option then forces your hand.

Given his age and potential, I think your hand is one of the following: 1) bullpen to buy time, 2) bullpen with the intent of changing his role, 3) try to trade him.

In my opinion, options 1 and 3 are preferable to option 2 because option 2 guts his value.

BRM
08-07-2009, 02:49 PM
Welcome to the last decade!

I was hoping we were actually trying to begin a new decade. One where the Reds actually put a quality team on the field.

BRM
08-07-2009, 02:52 PM
Cueto, Harang and a bunch of #5s. Sounds like a winner.

acredsfan
08-07-2009, 02:53 PM
At some point the team has to stop abusing its fans.

If, during the final two months of this season, he's no better than he has been to date, then handing him a rotation slot in 2010 is essentially a white flag move. It would send the message that awarding jobs on merit is out the window and that fans will just have to endure the misery of watching this kid get beaten around on a regular basis.

My take is the Reds and Reds fans have an unhealthy relationship with Homer Bailey. The cord could stand a good severing, otherwise the maudlin melodrama will continue.You're going to make organizational changes based on the feelings of the fans? Wow, that's a sure fire way to win it all. Homer has been up and down so many times in his young career we haven't seen him for an extended time. He needs at least a year of solid big league time before you can judge him on improvement. Fans want instant results, so you have to stay stubborn with your plan and not be so soft to the fans' whining. If you win, the fans will come. I don't think the majority of fans have soured on Homer, and I have been delighted in the change I have seen with him in the last couple of months. Just because his stats aren't great at the moment doesn't mean he isn't learning and improving. A small market team cannot afford to cut ties with young talent that they have under control for a few more years just because.

The Reds should plan on him being in the rotation next year and he has to show improvement, but he is already headed in the right direction. Big market teams can afford to put prospects in the bullpen and try to groom them that way, but they have money to replace those prospects in the rotation until they feel they are ready. It just won't help the Reds to throw out a 5th starter who isn't going to be an improvement over Homer for the sake of sending Homer to the bullpen. The Reds don't have the money to do it, and even if they trade away one of the contracts then they will have yet another rotation hole to fill.

All in all, I just don't see any reason the Reds would be better off without Bailey in the Rotation.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:53 PM
I think you pitch him #5 until you have a better option for #5. The better option then forces your hand.

I can't imagine it's too difficult to find a retread that can give you (even just a little bit) better than a 7.09 ERA. Dan O isn't running this team anymore.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 02:55 PM
Cueto, Harang and a bunch of #5s. Sounds like a winner.

With the way they have been pitching over the last month, isn't "Cueto, Harang and a bunch of #5s" redundant?

Man I'm really starting to sound like FCB :explode:

BRM
08-07-2009, 02:56 PM
With the way they have been pitching over the last month, isn't "Cueto, Harang and a bunch of #5s" redundant.

Good point.

dougdirt
08-07-2009, 02:57 PM
I can't imagine it's too difficult to find a retread that can give you (even just a little bit) better than a 7.09 ERA. Dan O isn't running this team anymore.

You say that, then forget that the current guy brought in Wily Taveras....

jojo
08-07-2009, 02:59 PM
I can't imagine it's too difficult to find a retread that can give you (even just a little bit) better than a 7.09 ERA. Dan O isn't running this team anymore.

If all one cares about is ERA, then it's probably an easy decision.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:02 PM
If the Reds don't plan on contending next year then by all means hand him a rotation spot. If they actually want to compete for the division and the playoffs then it would behoove them to find better starters.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:02 PM
If all one cares about is ERA, then it's probably an easy decision.

Because the 5.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and the 1.55 WHIP is really knocking my socks off :rolleyes:

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:04 PM
You say that, then forget that the current guy brought in Wily Taveras....

Thanks for the salt. It feels really good in this open wound.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:04 PM
You say that, then forget that the current guy brought in Wily Taveras....

I wouldn't be surprised if Wily Taveras could put up an ERA better than 7.09

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:08 PM
Because the 5.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and the 1.55 WHIP is really knocking my socks off :rolleyes:

If it was just about ERA, K/9 or WHIP we wouldn't be having this discussion.

M2
08-07-2009, 03:11 PM
You're going to make organizational changes based on the feelings of the fans?

No, I'm just saying a lot of fans have a dysfunctional relationship with Homer Bailey and they're clearly unable to recognize when it's over.

If he's going to continue being a garbage pitcher in the majors, then he shouldn't be in the rotation. Period.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2009, 03:12 PM
Keep him in the rotation. The numbers may not reflect it right now, but I think Homer Bailey has made some fairly big strides this season. His velocity is back, his curve appears to be back to where it was three years ago, and he's added another pitch in the splitter. His problem right now is inconsistent command/control. As he showed against the Cardinals and Phillies, when his command is on, he can be dominant.

M2
08-07-2009, 03:13 PM
Because the 5.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and the 1.55 WHIP is really knocking my socks off :rolleyes:

Plus, since when did you have to dissect a 7.09 ERA? That's hit-you-in-the-face-with-an-oar awful.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:14 PM
Plus, since when did you have to dissect a 7.09 ERA? That's hit-you-in-the-face-with-an-oar awful.

The ERA is not important. He has a new pitch.

Matt700wlw
08-07-2009, 03:14 PM
Let him pitch. His future is now up to him.

Eric_the_Red
08-07-2009, 03:14 PM
Remember when Bailey was pitching very well this spring, and some questioned whether this was year that he finally put it all together, and he could possibly be the final piece of the rotation puzzle that lead the Reds to the playoffs this year?


...


Yeah, me neither. :(

M2
08-07-2009, 03:15 PM
The ERA is not important. He has a new pitch.

Meet the new pitch, same as the old pitch.

Eric_the_Red
08-07-2009, 03:16 PM
Meet the new pitch, same as the old pitch.

Will Pujols be fooled again?

M2
08-07-2009, 03:18 PM
Will Pujols be fooled again?

Not nearly often enough. No one else is ... except for people voting in this poll.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:18 PM
Meet the new pitch, same as the old pitch.

You haven't been following closely enough. He has a splitter now. A splitter!

Matt700wlw
08-07-2009, 03:19 PM
Will Pujols be fooled again?

Is Pujols ever fooled?

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:20 PM
Homer will be lucky to post 100 innings with the Reds this season.

There is no need to force a decision on Homer this off season given he won't even have 200 innings in the majors, the Reds rotation doesn't exactly look like it will have a line of arms seriously contending for a spot, and the Reds look to be long shots in 2010 at best.

Generally pitchers should have to kick the door down to get to dance. Homer has been mismanaged but given Homer's lack of options and the general lack of quality arms in the high minors behind him, really someone should have to kick the door both down and onto Homer's head IMHO.

Like I said, unless trading him is results in a clear, meaningful improvement for the Reds, it's not yet time to give up IMHO.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:26 PM
I think focusing upon whether Homer has an ERA of 7 or 6 is as arbitrary as it gets when deciding upon the role of a pitcher and the direction of an organization.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:29 PM
Homer will be lucky to post 100 innings with the Reds this season.

There is no need to force a decision on Homer this off season given he won't even have 200 innings in the majors, the Reds rotation doesn't exactly look like it will have a line of arms seriously contending for a spot, and the Reds look to be long shots in 2010 at best.

Generally pitchers should have to kick the door down to get to dance. Homer has been mismanaged but given Homer's lack of options and the general lack of quality arms in the high minors behind him, really someone should have to kick the door both down and onto Homer's head IMHO.

Like I said, unless trading him is results in a clear, meaningful improvement for the Reds, it's not yet time to give up IMHO.

Wouldn't replacing a 7.06 ERA in the rotation (even with a 6.06 ERA) make for a clear, meaningful improvement?

No one is saying he shouldn't pitch out the rest of this lost season. But if he can't put up an ERA under 7.00 (let alone 6.00), anything- and I mean ANYTHING- would be a meaningful improvement over him.

M2
08-07-2009, 03:29 PM
I think focusing upon whether Homer has an ERA of 7 or 6 is as arbitrary as it gets when deciding upon the role of a pitcher and the direction of an organization.

I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:30 PM
I think focusing upon whether Homer has an ERA of 7 or 6 is as arbitrary as it gets when deciding upon the role of a pitcher and the direction of an organization.

Not if the only goal for Homer is to see improvement.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:34 PM
I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

I'd like to see them find better pitchers regardless of how Homer finishes this season.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:34 PM
Wouldn't replacing a 7.06 ERA in the rotation (even with a 6.06 ERA) make for a clear, meaningful improvement?

No one is saying he shouldn't pitch out the rest of this lost season. But if he can't put up an ERA under 7.00 (let alone 6.00), anything- and I mean ANYTHING- would be a meaningful improvement over him.

I don't think it's cliff notes Shakespeare to suggest it entirely depends.

This season? Who cares? The Reds are better served with Homer in the rotation IMHO.

Next year? Who knows? Without specifics to give context, it's kind of an impossible argument to have let alone settle.

I do know this. It's not impossible for Homer version '09 to pitch exactly as he has and post an ERA 2 runs better than he has to this point.

CTA513
08-07-2009, 03:35 PM
I'd like to see them find better pitchers regardless of how Homer finishes this season.

Probably not going to happen unless someone takes on Arroyo and Harangs contracts.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:37 PM
I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

I don't think anyone is arguing the Reds aren't honor bound to find better pitchers-regardless of Homers era over the next 50 or so innings.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:37 PM
I don't think it's cliff notes Shakespeare to suggest it entirely depends.

This season? Who cares? The Reds are better served with Homer in the rotation IMHO.

Next year? Who knows? Without specifics to give context, it's kind of an impossible argument to have let alone settle.

I do know this. It's not impossible for Homer version '09 to pitch exactly as he has and post an ERA 2 runs better than he has to this point.

Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year. :rolleyes:

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 03:37 PM
I think it's criminal to hand a pitcher that bad a job.

My take is he's got until the end of this season to show signs of life and if he doesn't then the Reds are honor bound to find better pitchers.

That's what I'm thinking too.

If Bailey has truly made progress this season like many people think, then he should presumably be able to start getting some better results (as his numbers are so bad it would likely be imposssible to do so).

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 03:39 PM
Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year. :rolleyes:

That's not a best case scenario. That's a best case scenario under the thought that he wont make one inch of progress.

Presumably, if Bailey actually improves his pitching, he could lower his ERA far below 5.

dougdirt
08-07-2009, 03:40 PM
Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."


Thats not a best case scenario. Its actually a bad case scenario where over the next 10-12 starts he will get this year he makes zero improvements and then has 25+ next year and makes zero improvements.

Best case scenario would be quite a bit different than that.... like Homer learns to be consistently in the strikezone and everything trends the right direction big time.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:40 PM
Which would still put him with an ERA over 5. That's a pretty ugly "best case scenario."

It's not a best case scenario. It's a scenario in which the criteria in this thread would suggest he's improved.


It's also not impossible for the Reds to contend this year. :rolleyes:

Wanna buy my playoff tickets?

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 03:41 PM
I don't think anyone is arguing the Reds aren't honor bound to find better pitchers-regardless of Homers era over the next 50 or so innings.

Well it's not like it's 50 innings in a vacuum. It's added on to his work this year, and during his other stints in the big leagues. At some point, those numbers begin to add up, and at some point you have to make a decision based on the sample size.

It's like if I asked you to give me one penny, you'd probably do so, because it's not a big deal. At some point, if I keep asking you for those pennies, you'd have to stop or you'd go broke.

bucksfan2
08-07-2009, 03:41 PM
Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 03:42 PM
Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

Well I was just flipping through SOSH a second ago, and they seemed willing to remove him from the rotation for a version of Paul Byrd that hasn't pitched in almost a year.

Eric_the_Red
08-07-2009, 03:42 PM
Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?


Actually I think some are. Many are starting to view him as a AAAA pitcher.

Not saying I agree, just sayin'.

RedsManRick
08-07-2009, 03:43 PM
If the Reds had some other hot top prospect and needed to clear out a rotation spot for him, I'd send him to the bullpen. But that's not the case, this is a team in desperate need of upside. Homer needs major league experience. Give it to him.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:45 PM
Well it's not like it's 50 innings in a vacuum. It's added on to his work this year, and during his other stints in the big leagues. At some point, those numbers begin to add up, and at some point you have to make a decision based on the sample size.

It's like if I asked you to give me one penny, you'd probably do so, because it's not a big deal. At some point, if I keep asking you for those pennies, you'd have to stop or you'd go broke.

I agree. But right now, using the analogy, you've only bought about 1 and a half burritos from taco bell with the pennies given up....

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:46 PM
Thats not a best case scenario. Its actually a bad case scenario where over the next 10-12 starts he will get this year he makes zero improvements and then has 25+ next year and makes zero improvements.

Best case scenario would be quite a bit different than that.... like Homer learns to be consistently in the strikezone and everything trends the right direction big time.

That's fine (and I'd really like for it to happen.) My only point is that Homer needs to start showing some improvement this year before he is written into the rotation for all of 2010. And I just mean a little improvement, which I don't think is too much to ask.

Ask Orioles fans how long they waited around for Daniel Cabrera to gain consistency and realize his potential.

Actually, can you name me a pitcher put up as big of stinkers as Homer with over 100+ IP in the majors that turned into a very good pitcher within 2 years?

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:47 PM
If the Reds had some other hot top prospect and needed to clear out a rotation spot for him, I'd send him to the bullpen. But that's not the case, this is a team in desperate need of upside. Homer needs major league experience. Give it to him.

I don't think anyone is advocating removing him from the rotation this year. The discussion is focused on 2010.

bucksfan2
08-07-2009, 03:47 PM
Actually I think some are. Many are starting to view him as a AAAA pitcher.

Not saying I agree, just sayin'.

Edwin Jackson also looked less than stellar early on in his career. ERA's of 7.30, 6.28, 5.45, 5.76. What is his ERA today? 2.62. You have to let a young pitcher grow. You have to let him go throw growing pains. ERA doesn't always tell you the whole story when you look at a pitcher. I really don't know a single person who has watched Homer this season, especially since July, who hasn't seen a changed pitcher.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:48 PM
Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

I wonder how many Reds fans would jump for joy upon learning the Reds just acquired Bucholtz?

I wonder how many Reds fans would salivate over Brandon Morrow?

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:51 PM
Edwin Jackson also looked less than stellar early on in his career. ERA's of 7.30, 6.28, 5.45, 5.76. What is his ERA today? 2.62. You have to let a young pitcher grow. You have to let him go throw growing pains. ERA doesn't always tell you the whole story when you look at a pitcher. I really don't know a single person who has watched Homer this season, especially since July, who hasn't seen a changed pitcher.

So we are going to endure ERAs over 5.00 from our #3/4 pitcher for the next three seasons, and we're expecting to contend??

Edwin Jackson was also pitching in the big leagues at age 19, and also had better K/9 numbers than Bailey ever has.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:52 PM
I wonder how many Reds fans would jump for joy upon learning the Reds just acquired Bucholtz?

I wonder how many Reds fans would salivate over Brandon Morrow?

Bucholz's ERA is a full run better than Homer's. Morrow's is almost two runs better. Both in the AL. Fans would probably consider that a nice improvement over Bailey.

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:54 PM
So we are going to endure ERAs over 5.00 from our #3/4 pitcher for the next three seasons, and we're expecting to contend??


That's what I was thinking. Throw in Arroyo and Owings and their 5+ ERAs and this team is sunk. Sorta like the last 10 years.

jojo
08-07-2009, 03:54 PM
So we are going to endure ERAs over 5.00 from our #3/4 pitcher for the next three seasons, and we're expecting to contend??

Edwin Jackson was also pitching in the big leagues at age 19, and also had better K/9 numbers than Bailey ever has.

I've ragged on Homer's command probably about as much as the next guy. Clearly he's shown significant stretches this year where his command simply isn't major league caliber.

My argument is pretty simple-there has to be a compelling reason to not have Bailey in the rotation next year and his ERA the rest of the way would be pretty low on my list of reasons.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:55 PM
Clay Bucholtz 08 and 09 ERA was 6.75 and 6.05. I wonder if Red Sox fans are itching to jettison him as eagerly as some Reds fans are?

First off, his name is Buchholz. Second, they are not letting him go bombs away in their major league rotation. They have the luxury of keeping him in the minors where he can refine his stuff, not overthrow, and not harm the big club. The Reds do not have that luxury.

And FWIW, I live in Boston. There are plenty of Sox fans that wouldn't shed too many tears if they did jettison Buchholz. They care a lot more about Daniel Bard than they do about Buchholz.

Patrick Bateman
08-07-2009, 03:55 PM
Bucholz's ERA is a full run better than Homer's. Morrow's is almost two runs better. Both in the AL. Fans would probably consider that a nice improvement over Bailey.

That's missing the point.

I agree with the thought of being patient with young guys like these, and to give them chances when it is merited. None of the above has shown the ability to succeed in the rotation yet.

But I would have trouble serving a rotation spot to Bailey next year, if he continues to show no major league improvement over the rest of the year.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 03:57 PM
That's missing the point.

I agree with the thought of being patient with young guys like these, and to give them chances when it is merited. None of the above has shown the ability to succeed in the rotation yet.

But I would have trouble serving a rotation spot to Bailey next year, if he continues to show no major league improvement over the rest of the year.

Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner!!!

BRM
08-07-2009, 03:57 PM
That's missing the point.

I agree with the thought of being patient with young guys like these, and to give them chances when it is merited. None of the above has shown the ability to succeed in the rotation yet.

But I would have trouble serving a rotation spot to Bailey next year, if he continues to show no major league improvement over the rest of the year.

I know it's missing the point. I found jojo's post to be off-point so I was being facetious.

Like I said earlier, if the Reds sincerely plan to contend next year, then Bailey should absolutely not be handed a rotation spot. They need to find better pitchers. If it's another year of the same old, same old then give him a spot and hope he improves...eventually.

bucksfan2
08-07-2009, 03:58 PM
First off, his name is Buchholz. Second, they are not letting him go bombs away in their major league rotation. They have the luxury of keeping him in the minors where he can refine his stuff, not overthrow, and not harm the big club. The Reds do not have that luxury.

And FWIW, I live in Boston. There are plenty of Sox fans that wouldn't shed too many tears if they did jettison Buchholz. They care a lot more about Daniel Bard than they do about Buchholz.

Sorry dude didn't realize I had a typo.

If you want to look solely at ERA in making your judgments on Homer that is your prerogative. I have seen a different pitcher, a pitcher who has made significant strides this season.

Do the Reds have anything better in the system right now? Why not give a pitcher with a very good arm a chance to work through his problems? Why jump all over him because he has a high era which is pretty typical with young pitchers?

BRM
08-07-2009, 04:00 PM
Do the Reds have anything better in the system right now? Why not give a pitcher with a very good arm a chance to work through his problems? Why jump all over him because he has a high era which is pretty typical with young pitchers?

I think that's exactly what Benihana has proposed. Let him "work through it" the rest of this season. See if he can take steps forward. If he can't, don't hand him a rotation spot next year. Either put him in the pen or deal him.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:02 PM
Sorry dude didn't realize I had a typo.

If you want to look solely at ERA in making your judgments on Homer that is your prerogative. I have seen a different pitcher, a pitcher who has made significant strides this season.

Do the Reds have anything better in the system right now? Why not give a pitcher with a very good arm a chance to work through his problems? Why jump all over him because he has a high era which is pretty typical with young pitchers?

I don't care if he has a fairly high ERA. All I'm saying is that he has to show improvement before he should be handed a spot in next year's rotation. He still has two months to do that. If he doesn't, he doesn't belong in any rotation- in the major leagues anyway.

It is typical for younger pitchers to have higher ERAs. But the ones who end up sticking around and having big league careers are the ones who improve. That's all Bailey needs to do- show some improvement.

Otherwise he's Braniel Cablaussen.

bucksfan2
08-07-2009, 04:03 PM
I don't care if he has a fairly high ERA. All I'm saying is that he has to show improvement before he should be handed a spot in next year's rotation. He still has two months to do that. If he doesn't, he doesn't belong in any rotation- in the major leagues anyway.

It is typical for younger pitchers to have higher ERAs. But the ones who end up sticking around and having big league careers are the ones who improve. That's all Bailey needs to do- show some improvement.

Otherwise he's Braniel Cablaussen.

So you don't think he has improved from the start of this year until now?

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:05 PM
So you don't think he has improved from the start of this year until now?

Not enough for me to hand him a spot in the rotation next year, no.

In fact correct me if I'm wrong, but his 3 worst outings of the year have come in his last 4 starts (all coming in the last month). And he only has 8 starts on the year. If you look at his game log, he appears to be getting worse!

jojo
08-07-2009, 04:05 PM
I know it's missing the point. I found jojo's post to be off-point so I was being facetious.

My post was so on point that it had a warning label...

BRM
08-07-2009, 04:06 PM
My post was so on point that it had a warning label...

OK.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2009, 04:08 PM
I think what's not getting discussed is the pitcher himself. There comes a point at which it can't be good to continually embarrass a young man by sending him out to get pummeled over 2 or 3 inning stints of 4, 5, 6 earned runs. (I'm not saying that's what's going to happen only that it could). To a great extent the decision will be made based what the narrative is (which is what M2 hinted at): if he's making modest strides or not sliding, he'll probably stay in the rotation; if he continues to get pounded unremittingly, it's not only good strategy it's a good ethical decision to send him to the pen or trade him.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 04:20 PM
Not enough for me to hand him a spot in the rotation next year, no.

And who in the Reds fold, right now, are you going to pencil in to that spot? The great pitcher that they acquire in the off-season? (like that is probable) I think you really have to be patient with someone that you have put so much stock in, particularly if there is no one out there that is willing to give you any kind of return on him that really helps your immediate needs. Developing pitching is not always in the fast lane.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:24 PM
And who in the Reds fold, right now, are you going to pencil in to that spot? The great pitcher that they acquire in the off-season? (like that is probable) I think you really have to be patient with someone that you have put so much stock in, particularly if there is no one out there that is willing to give you any kind of return on him that really helps your immediate needs.

It depends on how serious the Reds are when they say they are planning to "contend in 2010."

Obviously the preference is that the Reds can go out and acquire some real major league arms.

But to your point, I'd offer that Ramon Ramirez, Matt Maloney, and Justin Lehr may well be able to put up ERAs better than what Homer has shown so far. If you really intend on contending, you cannot compete with a 7+ ERA out of one of your rotation members. Even a 5.50-6.00 ERA would be preferable (which I'd bet one of those guys could probably put up.)

However if they are not serious about contending and intend to punt the year in order to "build for the future", continue to pitch Homer in 2010 with the hope that he eventually "figures it out." In that scenario, I ask you (and/or Walt) what the hell was the point of trading Stewart, Roenicke and Co. for Rolen?

Brutus
08-07-2009, 04:27 PM
http://www.untoldentertainment.com/blog/img/2009_03_07/oldYeller.jpg

Chip R
08-07-2009, 04:31 PM
I remember Maddux and Glavine getting kicked around pretty good their rookie seasons. I thought Orel Hershisher did too till I saw his numbers. Anyway here's Glavine's numbers from 1988



W-L 7-17
ERA 4.56 League Average 3.45
ERA+ 80
BB/9 2.99
K/9 3.9
Hits 201


Now Maddux in 1987


W-L 6-14
ERA 5.61 League Average 4.09
ERA+ 76
BB/9 4.3
K/9 5.8

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:39 PM
I remember Maddux and Glavine getting kicked around pretty good their rookie seasons. I thought Orel Hershisher did too till I saw his numbers. Anyway here's Glavine's numbers from 1988



W-L 7-17
ERA 4.56 League Average 3.45
ERA+ 80
BB/9 2.99
K/9 3.9
Hits 201


Now Maddux in 1987


W-L 6-14
ERA 5.61 League Average 4.09
ERA+ 76
BB/9 4.3
K/9 5.8


Are either of those close to as bad as Bailey has been?

redsmetz
08-07-2009, 04:40 PM
It depends on how serious the Reds are when they say they are planning to "contend in 2010."

Obviously the preference is that the Reds can go out and acquire some real major league arms.

But to your point, I'd offer that Ramon Ramirez, Matt Maloney, and Justin Lehr may well be able to put up ERAs better than what Homer has shown so far. If you really intend on contending, you cannot compete with a 7+ ERA out of one of your rotation members. Even a 5.50-6.00 ERA would be preferable (which I'd bet one of those guys could probably put up.)

However if they are not serious about contending and intend to punt the year in order to "build for the future", continue to pitch Homer in 2010 with the hope that he eventually "figures it out." In that scenario, I ask you (and/or Walt) what the hell was the point of trading Stewart, Roenicke and Co. for Rolen?

Of course, your point of departure is the assumption that Bailey will not improve. Many of us disagree, but that's the premise you set forward. I don't expect them to just give Bailey a spot, but those of us who believe he's improving (and he has had outings where he has shown he's a different pitcher - not consistently, but still matured). Of course, given your premise again, and no hope of improvement in the future (I assume your point), I can see why you would feel it's a sign of surrender. It's just that not all of us agree with your contention in the first place. But that's the zeitgeist around here presently.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:44 PM
Of course, your point of departure is the assumption that Bailey will not improve. Many of us disagree, but that's the premise you set forward. I don't expect them to just give Bailey a spot, but those of us who believe he's improving (and he has had outings where he has shown he's a different pitcher - not consistently, but still matured). Of course, given your premise again, and no hope of improvement in the future (I assume your point), I can see why you would feel it's a sign of surrender. It's just that not all of us agree with your contention in the first place. But that's the zeitgeist around here presently.

I am not suggesting that Bailey won't improve. I would, however, like to see some of that improvement translate into results over the next two months before assuming that he will magically improve drastically next year.

If he can string together 5 or 6 quality starts between now and the end of the year, I'm fine with giving him another shot next year. But if he can't outpitch another starter in all of baseball for the rest of this year, I can't hand him a spot in the rotation for next year on blind faith alone.

TheNext44
08-07-2009, 04:44 PM
As some have stated, a lot depends on what the Reds do between now and opening day 2010.

Do they trade either Arroyo or Harang? Do they add any starting pitchers either through trade or free agency? Do Leake and/or Wood look ready for the rotation next spring training?

I would like the Reds to send Bailey to a fall or winter league to work on being a closer. It can't hurt. If they do move him to the bullpen, it has to be as a closer or setup man. He has too good an arm to waste in middle or long relief.

He can set up Cordero in 2010, and maybe take over in 2011 and have the Reds trade Cordero. I think he would be great as a power arm in the back end of the pen and would hold his value that way.

Homer Bailey
08-07-2009, 04:44 PM
It's easy to think by looking at his season numbers that he is a turd, but if you've watched him since his most recent callup, he has looked like the guy we've been expecting for the last few years. Sure he got roughed up by the best and 3rd best offenses in the NL, but other than that, he's been pretty rock solid.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 04:45 PM
It depends on how serious the Reds are when they say they are planning to "contend in 2010."

Obviously the preference is that the Reds can go out and acquire some real major league arms.

But to your point, I'd offer that Ramon Ramirez, Matt Maloney, and Justin Lehr may well be able to put up ERAs better than what Homer has shown so far. If you really intend on contending, you cannot compete with a 7+ ERA out of one of your rotation members. Even a 5.50-6.00 ERA would be preferable (which I'd bet one of those guys could probably put up.)

However if they are not serious about contending and intend to punt the year in order to "build for the future", continue to pitch Homer in 2010 with the hope that he eventually "figures it out." In that scenario, I ask you (and/or Walt) what the hell was the point of trading Stewart, Roenicke and Co. for Rolen?

They can try to go out and get some starting pitching, which I think they should, but it doesn't exactly grow on trees. I am not convinced that either Roenicke or Stewart is going to be the next great pitcher in the major leagues. Still a lot to prove, and they will more than likely struggle some, or a lot, just like Bailey. As for the "Co." part of the trade, to be honest, I am glad to see him at third base in a different uniform. I don't have a problem with the Rolen trade. You have to have guys that can play. Rolen can play.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 04:54 PM
You have to have guys that can play. Rolen can play.
If you are going to contend. If you're not- and you're building for the future, you're better off with guys like Stewart and Roenicke.

Obviously, the Reds need to make up their mind which one they are going to do. If Homer Bailey doesn't show improvement for the rest of this season yet still finds himself in the 2010 rotation, you know which way the Reds decided, and it's incongruent with the Rolen trade- no matter what your opinion of the deal was.

Chip R
08-07-2009, 04:59 PM
Are either of those close to as bad as Bailey has been?


No. But Homer's not even pitched 50 innings in a season yet. Those 2 pitched for last place teams and both pitched over 150 innings for their teams.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 05:01 PM
Maybe, maybe not. I think you have to try to get better. I hope that Rolen is surrounded by a few more capable players. We'll see.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 05:01 PM
No. But Homer's not even pitched 50 innings in a season yet. Those 2 pitched for last place teams and both pitched over 150 innings for their teams.

Don't make sense, Chip.;)

Benihana
08-07-2009, 05:03 PM
No. But Homer's not even pitched 50 innings in a season yet. Those 2 pitched for last place teams and both pitched over 150 innings for their teams.

That's right. Let Homer throw 100 innings this year. If he has stats that approach either of those then I'm fine with leaving him in the rotation for next year. If he can't come close, then he doesn't deserve it.

Remember those were the two worst debuts of the last 25 years that you can recall (for pitchers that turned out well.) If a guy is going to be good, he should at least approach the stink of those numbers, not the stink much worse.

fearofpopvol1
08-07-2009, 05:10 PM
I think it's fair to point out that Harang's first 100 innings at the Show were not stellar and he was older than Bailey was (I think).

Benihana
08-07-2009, 05:13 PM
I think it's fair to point out that Harang's first 100 innings at the Show were not stellar and he was older than Bailey was (I think).

Again, not nearly as bad as Bailey's. A 4.83 ERA and 7.4 K/9 is hardly horrible.

Plus, as has been pointed out many times, Harang's magnitude of improvement is a very big exception rather than a rule. He was barely considered a prospect when he made his debut. No one- not even the Reds who traded for him- expected him to turn into what he did.

RedsManRick
08-07-2009, 05:14 PM
I don't think anyone is advocating removing him from the rotation this year. The discussion is focused on 2010.

What makes you think I was talking about this year? I am talking about 2010.

M2
08-07-2009, 05:15 PM
And FWIW, I live in Boston. There are plenty of Sox fans that wouldn't shed too many tears if they did jettison Buchholz. They care a lot more about Daniel Bard than they do about Buchholz.

Quoted for truth. I don't know a single Sox fan who'd shed a tear over losing Buchholz.

BTW, you and I need to get a beer.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 05:16 PM
Quoted for truth. I don't know a single Sox fan who'd shed a tear over losing Buchholz.

BTW, you and I need to get a beer.

That's true. Hit me up over PM. We'll make it happen.

fearofpopvol1
08-07-2009, 05:17 PM
Again, not nearly as bad as Bailey's. A 4.83 ERA and 7.4 K/9 is hardly horrible.

Plus, as has been pointed out many times, Harang's magnitude of improvement is a very big exception rather than a rule. He was barely considered a prospect when he made his debut. No one- not even the Reds who traded for him- expected him to turn into what he did.

I never said he was horrible, I just said not stellar. And he wasn't stellar. Harang was also older too.

Benihana
08-07-2009, 05:19 PM
I never said he was horrible, I just said not stellar. And he wasn't stellar. Harang was also older too.

Nobody is asking for stellar. I think a slight notch over horrible would be acceptable at this point.

We can't do much to change Homer's age. Fact is he's out of options.

CTA513
08-07-2009, 05:22 PM
The Redsox also have a payroll which allows them to bring in good pitchers instead of having to rely on pitchers that may not be ready.

Chip R
08-07-2009, 05:23 PM
Don't make sense, Chip.;)


I'm not his biggest fan and I certainly don't think the Reds have handled him right but what else is new?

The thing is that he was drafted with the expectation of being the future ace of the Reds. Our Glavine. Our Maddux. Our Hershisher. Right now, he's going to do well if he turns into a league average pitcher. That's nothing to sneeze at but as long as he's here he's going to have the expectations that he was supposed to be a superstar. If that is his ceiling here, is that something that we can accept?

I normally hate comparing the NFL to MLB but he reminds me of a team that takes a tailback out of USC (or Oklahoma or Nebraska back in the day) that is a can't miss guy, has the pedigree and won the Heisman. Then when he goes to his team, he doesn't do quite as well for one reason or another. He's a good player but he's best used as a 3rd down back or a change of pace running back. He's probably never going to be the superstar he was in college but every season people wonder if this is the year he'll turn it around. In the eyes of the fans of the team that drafted him, he's somewhat of a failure cause he never was their Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk or Emmett Smith.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 05:26 PM
I'm not his biggest fan and I certainly don't think the Reds have handled him right but what else is new?

The thing is that he was drafted with the expectation of being the future ace of the Reds. Our Glavine. Our Maddux. Our Hershisher. Right now, he's going to do well if he turns into a league average pitcher. That's nothing to sneeze at but as long as he's here he's going to have the expectations that he was supposed to be a superstar. If that is his ceiling here, is that something that we can accept?

I normally hate comparing the NFL to MLB but he reminds me of a team that takes a tailback out of USC (or Oklahoma or Nebraska back in the day) that is a can't miss guy, has the pedigree and won the Heisman. Then when he goes to his team, he doesn't do quite as well for one reason or another. He's a good player but he's best used as a 3rd down back or a change of pace running back. He's probably never going to be the superstar he was in college but every season people wonder if this is the year he'll turn it around. In the eyes of the fans of the team that drafted him, he's somewhat of a failure cause he never was their Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk or Emmett Smith.

I think you are on the mark. High School pitchers are always a big gamble. Big arms but un-refined. When it works out, you look like a genius. When it doesn't....................well, you know. I think he still can put together a nice career, and he just might "get it" if given a little more time. The arm is still there. My biggest question about Homer has been, "How badly does he want it?"

Benihana
08-07-2009, 05:28 PM
I'm not his biggest fan and I certainly don't think the Reds have handled him right but what else is new?

The thing is that he was drafted with the expectation of being the future ace of the Reds. Our Glavine. Our Maddux. Our Hershisher. Right now, he's going to do well if he turns into a league average pitcher. That's nothing to sneeze at but as long as he's here he's going to have the expectations that he was supposed to be a superstar. If that is his ceiling here, is that something that we can accept?

Agreed


I normally hate comparing the NFL to MLB but he reminds me of a team that takes a tailback out of USC (or Oklahoma or Nebraska back in the day) that is a can't miss guy, has the pedigree and won the Heisman. Then when he goes to his team, he doesn't do quite as well for one reason or another. He's a good player but he's best used as a 3rd down back or a change of pace running back. He's probably never going to be the superstar he was in college but every season people wonder if this is the year he'll turn it around. In the eyes of the fans of the team that drafted him, he's somewhat of a failure cause he never was their Barry Sanders or Marshall Faulk or Emmett Smith.

So should Homer start dating Kim Kardashian?

jojo
08-07-2009, 05:50 PM
John Smoltz has an ERA of 8.33. He would be an upgrade to the Reds rotation.

Raisor
08-07-2009, 06:20 PM
Fun thing about Homer is he hasn't had his "highschool draftee" shoulder problem yet.

Should be anytime now unfortunatly.

SMcGavin
08-07-2009, 07:04 PM
The improvement angle kind of falls flat, this year Bailey is actually posting an xFIP higher than he did in 07 or 08 (hard to do really since he was awful both of those years too). He did show some signs in AAA, but they have not at all translated to the majors.

He definitely gets the rest of 2009 in the rotation. If his peripherals stay where they are now, there's no way you give him in a spot in the 2010 rotation. Not if you're trying to win at least, and why did they go get Rolen if they aren't going for it in 2010? Either bullpen or trade would be reasonable options for Bailey in that scenario. But you don't just keep running a guy that bad out there hoping he'll turn it around. If things get better for him over the next month and a half then it's a different conversation, but that doesn't look likely at this point.

TheNext44
08-07-2009, 07:17 PM
I think the reason why many people think he has improved, is that he gives a lot of very solid innings.

Of the 43 innings he's pitched, 27 of them were shutout innings, and 5 more he gave up just one run.

Those are not good numbers, but watching him pitch, he has twice as many great innings as he does bad ones, so it appears that he his more effective than he really has been.

But it also shows that he can be very good, if not great, if he can become more consistent. That's not easy to do, but it does suggest that no one should give up on him just yet.

To me this shows that he would be great as a closer, but it looks like I'm alone on this one.

Spring~Fields
08-07-2009, 07:27 PM
I think what's not getting discussed is the pitcher himself. There comes a point at which it can't be good to continually embarrass a young man by sending him out to get pummeled over 2 or 3 inning stints of 4, 5, 6 earned runs. (I'm not saying that's what's going to happen only that it could). To a great extent the decision will be made based what the narrative is (which is what M2 hinted at): if he's making modest strides or not sliding, he'll probably stay in the rotation; if he continues to get pounded unremittingly, it's not only good strategy it's a good ethical decision to send him to the pen or trade him.


I realize that Bailey is the subject of the topic along with ERA and the term “improvement”.

But as long as the term improvement is being tossed around as a standard to measure whether Bailey should be given a opportunity to start isn’t there a double standard present when or if we think of a Cueto or Owens in the same breath with “improvement” ? How do they escape the scrutiny? Should any of the three of Cueto, Owens or Bailey be given a spot in the starting rotation based upon the arguments against Bailey here?

I realize we can’t answer the next question but, I have to wonder what we would see from these guys or even Harang or Arroyo for that matter if St. Louis and Duncan had them to work with vs Reds organization and coaches.

RANDY IN INDY
08-07-2009, 08:16 PM
I think the reason why many people think he has improved, is that he gives a lot of very solid innings.

Of the 43 innings he's pitched, 27 of them were shutout innings, and 5 more he gave up just one run.

Those are not good numbers, but watching him pitch, he has twice as many great innings as he does bad ones, so it appears that he his more effective than he really has been.

But it also shows that he can be very good, if not great, if he can become more consistent. That's not easy to do, but it does suggest that no one should give up on him just yet.

To me this shows that he would be great as a closer, but it looks like I'm alone on this one.

What I am seeing is a kid that is slowly learning that there is much more to pitching than trying to throw the baseball by people. Major league hitters are good and they will punish your mistakes and make you pay, whether they are balls left out in the strikezone or free passes that you shouldn't be giving up. I think that it's very hard for kids to learn how to pitch when they have basically been throwing the ball by people for the first 10-12 years of their baseball experience. Old habits and having success with those habits is hard to shake.

In baseball, only a very few will not "hit the wall." Most of these guys have always been the very best. They have been able to get by on God given ability. It came easy. When you "hit the wall," you have to do a little soul searching. What always has worked, may not still work, and you may "have to work." That can be a foreign concept to the very talented. I see it, even in the level that I coach. We put together the best from a large area, and it can be frustrating for kids who have always been successful when they begin to play against players that are as good, or better, than they are.

If you are going to evaluate a young pitcher's progress on stats alone, without seeing and taking the good things he is doing into consideration, you are probably going to see a bleak picture. Sometimes, the little things add up and start to click for a pitcher. Developing talent (particularly pitching) is not for the impatient. What Homer Bailey still has, that a lot of other prospects don't, is a fastball in the high 90's. He has an electric arm. He will get the extra looks. The professionals in an organization, the guys who really can coach and evaluate talent will be a little more patient because of the little things they see that are getting better. Ultimately, a lot of this will be up to Homer Bailey. If they see that he is not willing to do the work, that is when he will find another place to play.

I see some progress in his approach to pitching, his mechanics, his thought process on the mound and the way he is handling himself. I still think he has some electric stuff worth the extra patience. He is still very young in a pitching sense.

Highlifeman21
08-07-2009, 08:55 PM
Trade Cordero, make Homer the closer.

TheNext44
08-07-2009, 09:13 PM
Trade Cordero, make Homer the closer.

To quote the Beach Boys...

"Wouldn't it be nice...?"

Big Klu
08-08-2009, 01:18 AM
So should Homer start dating Kim Kardashian?

I hear she's now available.



Trade Cordero, make Homer the closer.

I could see Volquez eventually becoming the closer after his Tommy John surgery.

redsfandan
08-08-2009, 02:04 AM
If the Reds trade Homer they'll get less than they would've received in a trade a year ago. Possibly a lot less. I can understand the votes for the bullpen as I've thought that should be a possibility back in March. But now we'll be without Volquez and either Harang or Arroyo could be dealt this month. Who do people think will fill those spots?

Noone in the system has the ceiling that Bailey does and there's only a few that we can even consider as options in April 2010. As far as outside options, we may get lucky with a decent starting pitcher pickup but try not to get too carried away with who you expect the Reds to pick up.

Bailey as even a league average starting pitcher is worth more than Bailey as a league average reliever. That's an important factor to keep in mind. The Reds screwed things up by constantly bringing him up. The Reds would be making things worse by letting him become a quality starter for someone else or shortchanging him as a one inning pitcher. Bailey will be debated again and again from now til next March and probably after that as well. But if he's in the rotation in 2010 it would be in the back of the rotation where the expectations aren't quite so high.

So my question is when does he have to show the improvement that people require? The consistency that can help him reach his potential. Now? This month? September? Or in spring training?

Right now I'd count him as a part of the 2010 rotation.

Kc61
08-08-2009, 02:11 AM
Homer should pitch every fifth game this year and next year. He is still 23. Just let him pitch, refine his command, and learn the major league game. The guy has a golden arm, it's just a matter of learning to pitch.

We saw Homer finally get it together at AAA. Now he needs to do it in the NL. It takes time for some guys.

Homer was brought up to the big leagues prematurely the first time. Bruce was brought up very early as well. They will get there, but there will be growing pains, everyone needs to be patient with them.

TheNext44
08-08-2009, 03:55 AM
Despite somewhat similar results, I saw improvement from Bailey in tonight's game.

He still get rattled, as evidence by the first inning homer to Molina after he thought he had Sandavol K'd on a 3-2 pitch, but he settled down after that until the 7th, when he was clearly gassed. He seems to be subtly showing more and more maturity every time he takes the mound.

I could be wrong, but I think there's a good chance that Bailey will become a decent starting pitcher by opening day next year.

Highlifeman21
08-08-2009, 12:28 PM
bullpen or whatever.

It's worked great for Phil Hughes. I think the Reds should do the same with Homer.

Phil Hughes is the exact reason why I think Homer could be great out of the pen.

Hughes hasn't exactly set the world on fire as a starter.

However, he's looking like a great set up option for the Yankes to get to Mo.

Highlifeman21
08-08-2009, 12:42 PM
The ERA is not important. He has a new pitch.

I feel like hitters should name Homer's pitches, a la Major League II.

Spring~Fields
08-08-2009, 12:43 PM
Homer should pitch every fifth game this year and next year. He is still 23. Just let him pitch, refine his command, and learn the major league game. The guy has a golden arm, it's just a matter of learning to pitch.

We saw Homer finally get it together at AAA. Now he needs to do it in the NL. It takes time for some guys.

Homer was brought up to the big leagues prematurely the first time. Bruce was brought up very early as well. They will get there, but there will be growing pains, everyone needs to be patient with them.

I think that your thoughts and approach suggested here seems reasonable.

Highlifeman21
08-08-2009, 01:08 PM
So should Homer start dating Kim Kardashian?

Well, she is available...

Highlifeman21
08-08-2009, 01:10 PM
I could see Volquez eventually becoming the closer after his Tommy John surgery.

And I'd be ok with that too.

Put guys in a situation to be successful. So far, I don't think we've seen Homer put in a situation to be successful.

RANDY IN INDY
08-08-2009, 01:13 PM
And I'd be ok with that too.

Put guys in a situation to be successful. So far, I don't think we've seen Homer put in a situation to be successful.

Give him a rifle or a shotgun somewhere in a field in Texas. That would probably be an ideal situation for Homer. ;)

Joseph
08-08-2009, 01:29 PM
I watch homer lately, and I see a kid who needs to make a pitch or two here and there to be a very good starter.

RANDY IN INDY
08-08-2009, 01:38 PM
I watch homer lately, and I see a kid who needs to make a pitch or two here and there to be a very good starter.

Agree, Joseph. He is very close. Still doesn't look totally comfortable out there, but he is learning and I see a lot of progress.

osuceltic
08-08-2009, 01:46 PM
I watch homer lately, and I see a kid who needs to make a pitch or two here and there to be a very good starter.

Absolutely. Hanigan did him no favors with that dumb pitch call to Molina. On the other HR, they were busting him inside in that spot all night, Homer did it again -- in a good spot -- but the guy was sitting on it on the first pitch.

The Giants got very few good swings against Homer last night. It just so happened that two of them went out of the park.

I wouldn't give up on him at all. He still was working at an easy 96-97 late in the game. He's making progress. Now isn't the time to get impatient.

chicoruiz
08-08-2009, 02:41 PM
When Sandy Koufax was Homer's age, he walked 105 in 158 innings and led the league in wild pitches. Now, no one's saying Homer's going to be a tenth of Sandy Koufax, but the point is that players progress at all kinds of different rates. Patience....

WebScorpion
08-09-2009, 08:53 PM
Homer seems to be kind of a slow learner...at every level it has taken him 2 or 3 seasons to become a dominant pitcher. The good point is that he has some serious determination...he doesn't seem to give up easily, if ever. I think we're in for a couple of seasons of up and down performances before he really settles in and shows what Homer is really capable of. I, for one, hope he is still a Red when he does 'get it'. We missed the learning seasons for Volquez...he did that in Texas, but we saw Cueto learn (from mistakes) a lot last season and quite a bit less this season. I just think it will take Homer a little longer, but he'll come around. :thumbup: Patience.

Highlifeman21
08-09-2009, 09:36 PM
Give him a rifle or a shotgun somewhere in a field in Texas. That would probably be an ideal situation for Homer. ;)

Hey, that works too.

Trade him to the Rangers, let him go to his thing....