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Brutus
08-09-2009, 05:56 AM
Scouring for information on the (many) reasons for why the Reds season has gone terribly awry, I stumbled across one interesting fact that certainly plays a factor. It has to do with my personal measurement of "clutch."

I've posted before, though probably the Sun Deck, a stat I like to use. I simply call it generic RBI rate. It's measured as a ratio of RBI-HR by total LOB plus RBI plus GDP. It's essentially a rate of driving men on base that a player has when his plate appearance begins. The nice thing about it is that it does not punish guys for drawing walks, but simply says if they drive in their opportunities versus making outs and stranding runners.

It's well-established the Reds are not getting runners on. But what's worse is that they have several players not getting the runners in that do come across their paths.

Well, first, in all these stats, I took only players with +/= to 100 PA this season. I included Paul Janish because he sits at 95 PA and it adds a humorous addition to my first point. A total of 199 players meet this criteria so far this year in the National League.

RBI Rate ((RBI-HR)/(RBI-HR+LOB+GDP))

Reds Player (with Rank)

(199) Paul Janish (5.26%)
(192) Ryan Hanigan (9.33%)
(189) Chris Dickerson (11.00%)
(188) Willy Taveras (11.94%)
(159) Jay Bruce (15.13%)
(157) Wladimir Balentien (15.39%)

That's four Reds in the bottom 10 in the league and six essentially in the bottom 20 percentile, though Balentien's low number comes from his time in Seattle. It should be noted, for reference purposes, the mean RBI Rate of this sample is 19.14%. So league average is essentially driving in a 1-in-5 ratio.

To continue with the list...

(140) Adam Rosales (16.47%)
(113) Laynce Nix (18.42%)

And finally, those Reds actually above the fold (average)...

(78) Jonny Gomes (20.25%)
(77) Scott Rolen (20.34%)
(72) Alex Gonzalez (20.93%)
(29) Ramon Hernandez (24.41%)
(24) Brandon Phillips (25.00%)
(8) Joey Votto (28.35%)

For those interested, here are the top 10 in the league...

1. Angel Pagan (32.65)
2. Andrew McCutchen (32.47)
3. Albert Pujols (31.84)
4. Carlos Delgado (31.67)
5. Prince Fielder (29.71)
6. Todd Helton (29.55)
7. Hanley Ramirez (28.80)
8. Joey Votto (28.35)
9. Pablo Sandoval (27.72)
10. Shane Victorino (27.45)

Other notable players that get discussed around here...

12. Matt Holliday (27.18)
13. Yunel Escobar (27.12)
57. Adam Dunn (21.72)
92. Mark Reynolds (19.47)
124. Adrian Gonzalez (17.50)
137. Josh Willingham (16.57)
150. Jeff Keppinger (15.84)
180. Austin Kearns (12.61)

And those poor Cubbies...

196. Aaron Miles (6.67)
186. Koyie Hill (12.00)
174. Andres Blanco (13.80)
170. Geovany Soto (14.18)
167. Milton Bradley (14.62)
166. Micah Hoffpauir (14.66)
154. Mike Fontenot (15.66)
130. Reed Johnson (17.02)
128. Alfonso Soriano (17.14)

Currently, Jake Fox (24), Derrek Lee (26) and Aramis Ramirez (44) are the only three they have in the upper 66 percentile.

BTW, the mean over a 3-year period (2006-2008) is 18.46. Here's how some rankings stack up over that time out of 338 players that had more than 150 PA's in the sample.

1. Albert Pujols (28.37)
2. Lance Berkman (28.31)
3. Pablo Sandoval (28.00)
4. John Baker (25.51)
5. Raul Ibanez (26.77)
6. Barry Bonds (26.09)
7. Ryan Howard (26.05)
8. Aramis Ramirez (25.64)
9. Joey Votto (25.25)
10. Freddy Sanchez (25.20)

Again, other notables...

20. Matt Holliday (24.32)
24. Ramon Hernandez (23.85)
73. Scott Rolen (21.43)
103. Adam Dunn (20.49)
161. Hanley Ramirez (18.94)
172. Brandon Phillips (18.73)
211. Jonny Gomes (17.61)
214. Austin Kearns (17.46)
224. Alex Gonzalez (17.09)
230. Felipe Lopez (16.74)
242. Jay Bruce (16.32)
243. Corey Patterson (16.26)
247. Willy Taveras (16.05)
271. Paul Janish (14.71)


On a positive note, the Reds have a few solid performers in BB/K rate.

6. Ryan Hanigan (1.33)
17. Ramon Hernandez (0.97)
48. Brandon Phillips (0.71)

And some not very solid performers...

117. Jay Bruce (0.48)
124. Alex Gonzalez (0.45)
140. Paul Janish (0.40)
154. Adam Rosales (0.37)
167. Willy Taveras (0.32)
169. Jonny Gomes (0.31)
178. Laynce Nix (0.27)

As far as Gomes, he does have a few things working for him...

HR% (with at least 100 PA)

1. Garrett Jones (8.39%)
2. Albert Pujols (7.52%)
3. Mark Reynolds (7.51%)
4. Raul Ibanez (6.93%)
5. Jonny Gomes (6.29%)
6. Adam Dunn (6.22%)
7. Jake Fox (6.20%)
8. Adrian Gonzalez (6.20%)
9. Josh Willingham (5.61%)
10. Prince Fielder (5.67%)

Ah well, sorry for the long-winded post. Overall, some bleak, bleak numbers even examining the peripherals. I tried picking some uplifting stats to divert us from the negative minutia. It's hard to do, though.

Highlifeman21
08-09-2009, 08:29 AM
Sure, this confirms that we're not scoring runs when we do get on base.

But the first step is getting guys on base, which has been a problem for the Reds all year.

As of 8/8/09


Player OBP
Votto .400
Hanigan .385
Dickerson .355
Gomes .349


EE .333
Phillips .332
Hernandez .330
JHJ .305
Janish .299
Nix .292
Rosales .286
Bruce .283
Taveras .273
Gonzalez .250

buckeyenut
08-09-2009, 09:44 AM
If you are below a .300 OBP, you really shouldn't even be on field. Only one adding anything with an OBP that low is Bruce because of his power.

nate
08-09-2009, 09:55 AM
Sometimes I wonder if the impact of giving away outs with a low OBP might be better understood if the stat were "OMP" (Out Making Percentage) and was 1 - OBP.

Might.

Chip R
08-09-2009, 10:19 AM
You can use whatever stats you want to measure this team's offense but any answer you are going to come up with is going to tell you that it stinks.

BCubb2003
08-09-2009, 10:26 AM
Sometimes I wonder if the impact of giving away outs with a low OBP might be better understood if the stat were "OMP" (Out Making Percentage) and was 1 - OBP.

Might.

For someone with a high out making percentage, it might make sense to give away an out in exchange for advancing a base. The trouble is when the next two batters also have high OMPs and the inning is over.

mth123
08-09-2009, 10:33 AM
Maybe the reason RBI Rate is so low is because the out percentage is so high. Putting getting on base and driving in runs into separate compartments is not really the way to look at it IMO. Most RBI's come from some type of outcome that ends up with the hitter on base. I say these are not mutually exclusive issues. Getting on base not only creates the opportunity, but it also moves the runners along. I would expect low OBP guys to have low RBI percentages. Wouldn't you?

M2
08-09-2009, 11:42 AM
The Reds are 15th in the NL at everything - BA, OB, SLG and, not surprisingly, scoring. They suck at everything.

Why make up a stat to state the obvious?

BCubb2003
08-09-2009, 12:06 PM
Maybe the reason RBI Rate is so low is because the out percentage is so high. Putting getting on base and driving in runs into separate compartments is not really the way to look at it IMO. Most RBI's come from some type of outcome that ends up with the hitter on base. I say these are not mutually exclusive issues. Getting on base not only creates the opportunity, but it also moves the runners along. I would expect low OBP guys to have low RBI percentages. Wouldn't you?

But high OBP guys can have low RBI percentages.

RedsManRick
08-09-2009, 12:14 PM
Baseball Prospectus does a good RBI analysis, based on RBI%, the percent of players on each base who a player drove in.

There are tons of interesting observations to be had, but the that absolutely jumps off the page to me is this: Joey Votto is by far, the best guy on the team when it comes to driving in runners from first base (easily the most common RBI opportunity). However, he's had less of those opportunities than Phillips (by 50!), Bruce, Hernandez, Hairston, and the same as Nix. Heck, he's only had 6 more than Taveras!! Dusty, this is on you. By putting crappy OBP at the top of the order, you have not put your best players in a position to maximize on their ability. As for Phillips, if he hits the 100 RBI mark this year, he owes Votto a steak dinner.

Now, I'll certainly admit that it's hard to make lemonade out of lemons, but Dusty surely has no clue.

As for the opening question to this thread, check out the correlations between AVG, OBP, and SLG with OBI%. RBI conversion is about slugging percentage -- the end. Batting average isn't that relevant because singles don't drive in runners on first base. OBP isn't that relevant because walks rarely drive anybody in and can actually harm your ability to convert RBI opportunities. But in the end you drive runners in through slugging percentage, which captures how many bases you advance yourself (and thus others) per AB.



NAME PA PA_ROB R1 R2 R3 R1_BI R2_BI R3_BI ROB OBI R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI% AVG OBP SLG
Joey Votto 311 134 78 75 31 8 16 12 184 36 10.3% 21.3% 38.7% 19.6% .328 .405 .584
Brandon Philli 421 202 136 94 52 8 21 24 282 53 5.9% 22.3% 46.2% 18.8% .267 .327 .456
Ramon Hernandez 316 137 88 61 41 5 9 17 190 31 5.7% 14.8% 41.5% 16.3% .249 .330 .355
Scott Rolen 373 162 102 83 43 2 14 19 228 35 2.0% 16.9% 44.2% 15.4% .313 .365 .474
Micah Owings 51 27 18 15 7 2 1 3 40 6 11.1% 6.7% 42.9% 15.0% .229 .240 .521
Jonny Gomes 168 72 48 31 16 1 6 7 95 14 2.1% 19.4% 43.8% 14.7% .267 .357 .541
Alex Gonzalez 240 107 72 47 24 3 8 10 143 21 4.2% 17.0% 41.7% 14.7% .194 .243 .287
Edwin Encarnaci 165 63 36 30 19 3 6 2 85 11 8.3% 20.0% 10.5% 12.9% .209 .333 .374
Laynce Nix 255 107 78 43 27 4 6 8 148 18 5.1% 14.0% 29.6% 12.2% .232 .290 .442
Adam Rosales 181 84 65 34 22 1 4 9 121 14 1.5% 11.8% 40.9% 11.6% .209 .285 .323
Jay Bruce 333 156 101 66 36 6 7 10 203 23 5.9% 10.6% 27.8% 11.3% .207 .283 .441
Jerry Hairston 340 137 87 67 32 4 5 10 186 19 4.6% 7.5% 31.3% 10.2% .254 .305 .397
Chris Dickerson 258 102 63 51 22 2 4 5 136 11 3.2% 7.8% 22.7% 8.1% .259 .355 .359
Willy Taveras 386 122 74 61 29 0 3 10 164 13 0.0% 4.9% 34.5% 7.9% .242 .279 .290
Ryan Hanigan 215 80 61 29 15 1 3 3 105 7 1.6% 10.3% 20.0% 6.7% .306 .399 .361
Paul Janish 98 49 33 30 8 0 2 1 71 3 0.0% 6.7% 12.5% 4.2% .218 .299 .264
Correlation w/ OBI% .27 .12 .67

jojo
08-09-2009, 12:18 PM
The Reds are 15th in the NL at everything - BA, OB, SLG and, not surprisingly, scoring. They suck at everything.

Why make up a stat to state the obvious?

The Reds offense isn't all doom and gloom....they're ranked first in the majors at sac bunting.

Highlifeman21
08-09-2009, 12:23 PM
The Reds offense isn't all doom and gloom....they're ranked first in the majors at sac bunting.

Havoc!!!

BCubb2003
08-09-2009, 12:39 PM
There are tons of interesting observations to be had, but the that absolutely jumps off the page to me is this: Joey Votto is by far, the best guy on the team when it comes to driving in runners from first base (easily the most common RBI opportunity). However, he's had less of those opportunities than Phillips (by 50!), Bruce, Hernandez, Hairston, and the same as Nix.



Yeah but all those RBI opportunities those other guys have? That's Votto.

LoganBuck
08-09-2009, 12:43 PM
Baseball Prospectus does a good RBI analysis, based on RBI%, the percent of players on each base who a player drove in.

There are tons of interesting observations to be had, but the that absolutely jumps off the page to me is this: Joey Votto is by far, the best guy on the team when it comes to driving in runners from first base (easily the most common RBI opportunity). However, he's had less of those opportunities than Phillips (by 50!), Bruce, Hernandez, Hairston, and the same as Nix. Heck, he's only had 6 more than Taveras!! Dusty, this is on you. By putting crappy OBP at the top of the order, you have not put your best players in a position to maximize on their ability. As for Phillips, if he hits the 100 RBI mark this year, he owes Votto a steak dinner.

Now, I'll certainly admit that it's hard to make lemonade out of lemons, but Dusty surely has no clue.

As for the opening question to this thread, check out the correlations between AVG, OBP, and SLG with OBI%. RBI conversion is about slugging percentage -- the end. Batting average isn't that relevant because singles don't drive in runners on first base. OBP isn't that relevant because walks rarely drive anybody in and can actually harm your ability to convert RBI opportunities. But in the end you drive runners in through slugging percentage, which captures how many bases you advance yourself (and thus others) per AB.



NAME PA PA_ROB R1 R2 R3 R1_BI R2_BI R3_BI ROB OBI R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI% AVG OBP SLG
Joey Votto 311 134 78 75 31 8 16 12 184 36 10.3% 21.3% 38.7% 19.6% .328 .405 .584
Brandon Philli 421 202 136 94 52 8 21 24 282 53 5.9% 22.3% 46.2% 18.8% .267 .327 .456
Ramon Hernandez 316 137 88 61 41 5 9 17 190 31 5.7% 14.8% 41.5% 16.3% .249 .330 .355
Scott Rolen 373 162 102 83 43 2 14 19 228 35 2.0% 16.9% 44.2% 15.4% .313 .365 .474
Micah Owings 51 27 18 15 7 2 1 3 40 6 11.1% 6.7% 42.9% 15.0% .229 .240 .521
Jonny Gomes 168 72 48 31 16 1 6 7 95 14 2.1% 19.4% 43.8% 14.7% .267 .357 .541
Alex Gonzalez 240 107 72 47 24 3 8 10 143 21 4.2% 17.0% 41.7% 14.7% .194 .243 .287
Edwin Encarnaci 165 63 36 30 19 3 6 2 85 11 8.3% 20.0% 10.5% 12.9% .209 .333 .374
Laynce Nix 255 107 78 43 27 4 6 8 148 18 5.1% 14.0% 29.6% 12.2% .232 .290 .442
Adam Rosales 181 84 65 34 22 1 4 9 121 14 1.5% 11.8% 40.9% 11.6% .209 .285 .323
Jay Bruce 333 156 101 66 36 6 7 10 203 23 5.9% 10.6% 27.8% 11.3% .207 .283 .441
Jerry Hairston 340 137 87 67 32 4 5 10 186 19 4.6% 7.5% 31.3% 10.2% .254 .305 .397
Chris Dickerson 258 102 63 51 22 2 4 5 136 11 3.2% 7.8% 22.7% 8.1% .259 .355 .359
Willy Taveras 386 122 74 61 29 0 3 10 164 13 0.0% 4.9% 34.5% 7.9% .242 .279 .290
Ryan Hanigan 215 80 61 29 15 1 3 3 105 7 1.6% 10.3% 20.0% 6.7% .306 .399 .361
Paul Janish 98 49 33 30 8 0 2 1 71 3 0.0% 6.7% 12.5% 4.2% .218 .299 .264
Correlation w/ OBI% .27 .12 .67

Baaahhhhhhhh! You can't write anything about how the lineup influences scoring. We all know that it doesn't make any difference. :rolleyes: The exception being when historically bad players are given to many at bats, and a team does not use the DH.

So how long is Andre Smith going to hold out?

Spring~Fields
08-09-2009, 12:46 PM
What all does it tell one about a baseball organization in the business of baseball entertainment when they are dead last in on base percentage?

13 Pittsburgh .320
14 San Diego .314
15 San Francisco .310
16 Cincinnati .310

OBP
On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

What's the solutions ?

Spring~Fields
08-09-2009, 12:52 PM
Dusty, this is on you. By putting crappy OBP at the top of the order, you have not put your best players in a position to maximize on their ability.

I just can't overlook the organizational leadership, and powers that be that give the manager the fuel to play with the fire of putting the low OBP players at the top of the order. What aware GM would give a manager players with speed with low on base skills to put at the top to begin with?

RedsManRick
08-09-2009, 01:11 PM
I just can't overlook the organizational leadership, and powers that be that give the manager the fuel to play with the fire of putting the low OBP players at the top of the order. What aware GM would give a manager players with speed with low on base skills to put at the top to begin with?

What aware GM? Well, an owner who thinks you can build a winner through sheer will and a GM who believes that the problem with this team is a lack of leadership.

It's embarrassing to be a fan of this franchise, and that's before we even consider the results on the field.

WVRedsFan
08-09-2009, 02:07 PM
What all does it tell one about a baseball organization in the business of baseball entertainment when they are dead last in on base percentage?

13 Pittsburgh .320
14 San Diego .314
15 San Francisco .310
16 Cincinnati .310

OBP
On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

What's the solutions ?

Better players. The reds starting lineup on most days includes guys who couldn't make it with other teams or unproven minor leaguers -- Gonzalez, Rosales, Nix, Gomes, Taveras, Hanigan. Yesterday there were at least 5 of the 6 in there and they went 3-18 (.167).

Brutus
08-09-2009, 03:15 PM
The Reds are 15th in the NL at everything - BA, OB, SLG and, not surprisingly, scoring. They suck at everything.

Why make up a stat to state the obvious?

Fortunately, I did not make up a stat to measure the Reds' misery. I simply applied it again to this bleak example :beerme:

I agree that, to an extent, this is just a byproduct of the low on-base percentage. But there are some hitters who perform better with runners on base, historically. It just so happens the Reds don't seem to possess many of those players.

M2
08-10-2009, 10:24 AM
But there are some hitters who perform better with runners on base, historically.

Sean Casey was one of them, not exactly a good RBI man.

Like RMR said, if you want RBIs look for guys with SLG (and put them up behind guys with high OBs).

15fan
08-10-2009, 11:12 AM
OBP
On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

What's the solutions ?

Fewer sac flies.

Reds are 8th in the NL with 33 at the start of play today.

Fewer sac flies makes for a smaller denominator and thus a larger OBP figure.

;)

flyer85
08-10-2009, 11:36 AM
2/3 of a season gone and yet ... the Reds have not yet figured out that Taveras is worthless and if you have to play him he should bat 8th. Hanigan would be a far superior leadoff hitter, too bad catchers must bat 8th.

OnBaseMachine
08-10-2009, 11:39 AM
What's amazing to me is Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez are arguably the two worst hitters in baseball, yet the Reds bat them first and second in the lineup.

flyer85
08-10-2009, 11:42 AM
So how long is Andre Smith going to hold out? long enough to be worthless

BCubb2003
08-10-2009, 12:14 PM
Sean Casey was one of them, not exactly a good RBI man.

Like RMR said, if you want RBIs look for guys with SLG (and put them up behind guys with high OBs).

This is the kind of concise motto that could bring old school types and sabreheads together, like "you can't steal first."

RED VAN HOT
08-10-2009, 12:29 PM
I appreciate the stat. I have an observation and a question.

It seems to me that the Reds become more aggressive at the plate when there are runners on base. This often results in first pitch outs that kill potential rallies. When the opposing pitcher is most vulnerable, they seem to help him out. When seeing more pitches is even more important, they see fewer. It also seems to me that a large percentage of the Reds runs come from HR's. That would also be consistent with an aggressive posture. It is as if the batter is guessing first pitch fast ball as soon as a pitcher starts to struggle.

I understand from the preceding comments that poor RBI percentages correlate to poor overall offensive averages. Yet, a player with a low average can help to sustain the rally simply by seeing a high number of pitches. My question is whether there is a way to tease out a stat that reflects the tendency to have poor AB's in RBI situations.

BRM
08-10-2009, 02:29 PM
What's amazing to me is Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez are arguably the two worst hitters in baseball, yet the Reds bat them first and second in the lineup.

It's pathetic. I just shake my head every day when I see the lineup.

Raisor
08-10-2009, 02:42 PM
It's pathetic. I just shake my head every day when I see the lineup.

My favorite line in the offseason was that Dusty had learned his lesson from last year and that if WT struggled he would drop him in the lineup.

uh
yeah.

pahster
08-10-2009, 02:46 PM
My favorite line in the offseason was that Dusty had learned his lesson from last year and that if WT struggled he would drop him in the lineup.

uh
yeah.

In Dusty's defense, Taveras does have 49 PA's in the 2-hole. :p:

flyer85
08-10-2009, 02:59 PM
In Dusty's defense, Taveras does have 49 PA's in the 2-hole. :p:
it is amazing that Dusty reinforces on a daily basis that you can spend your entire life in the game and have no idea how runs are actually created. His understanding of the game is purely anecdotal.

BRM
08-10-2009, 02:59 PM
My favorite line in the offseason was that Dusty had learned his lesson from last year and that if WT struggled he would drop him in the lineup.

uh
yeah.

Actually, I remember reading that Dusty would sit him down. Bench him.

Right.

Brutus
08-10-2009, 03:04 PM
Sean Casey was one of them, not exactly a good RBI man.

Like RMR said, if you want RBIs look for guys with SLG (and put them up behind guys with high OBs).

Except this isn't measuring opportunities like aggregate RBI's, this is measuring performance of opportunities. This doesn't penalize players who play on teams with low OBP ahead of them. Instead, it rewards guys for driving in the highest percentage of the runners on base when they come to the plate.

This really is not a measure of how many RBI's a guy can get, but rather what a player does with all of his opportunities to drive a runner in. I don't need to look at OBP figures of guys ahead of them, as this already figures in a large percentage of the guys on base when they bat. I'm not saying it's a perfect measure, but I'm saying you don't need to look at things out of the player's control when this already accounts for the things in the player's control.

flyer85
08-10-2009, 03:04 PM
BTW, I love a story from the book by Ron Luciano about his announcing career. He was asked by Merle Harmon(IIRC) who the best was the best pitcher he ever saw. He answered immediately and said Dick Tidrow. Whenever Tidrow came into the game and Luciano was behind the plate Tidrow was lights out, it supposedly became a bit of a standing joke between them.

BRM
08-10-2009, 06:53 PM
I checked Fay's blog and shook my head again today. It's almost comical at this point.