PDA

View Full Version : Is Scott Rolen a Hall of Famer?



kaldaniels
08-10-2009, 01:50 AM
I pose this question as someone who admittedly liked the deal...

I say no and right now it would take a lot more production from him to change my mind.

Poll is yes or no. Pick a side, we're at war. :D

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 01:51 AM
no

*BaseClogger*
08-10-2009, 03:20 AM
Not right now, no. But by the end of his career, yes. He's going to end up at least as impressive as Brooks Robinson...

TheNext44
08-10-2009, 04:35 AM
Not right now, no. But by the end of his career, yes. He's going to end up at least as impressive as Brooks Robinson...

Well said.

Hall Of Famers are made during the end of their careers. Ask Dale Murphy.

If Rolen can continue close to this level of play for around 5 more years, then he will be one of the best thirdbasemen of all time, easily. He definitely will be one of the top 5 defensive thirdbasemen of all time. But a lot of better players have fizzled out at around similar points in their career's as he is in now.

redsmetz
08-10-2009, 05:24 AM
I would say as of now, it's a "no". Just looking at the baseball-reference.com's HOF Monitor, not one his numbers is near HOF status. None of his career comparables is a HOF player and it's only with the comparables through age 33 that two show up, Tony Perez and Yogi Berra. While he was ROY and he's won seven Gold Gloves, he's never won any major batting award or finished close to doing so.

But as someone noted, he could finish up with HOF numbers, but it's not there yet.

Cyclone792
08-10-2009, 05:51 AM
Yes, Rolen's a Hall of Famer.

If you think otherwise, name a dozen third sackers who were greater than Rolen, accounting for both career value and peak value. You'll have a very difficult time trying to do it.

RFS62
08-10-2009, 06:23 AM
Yes, Rolen's a Hall of Famer.

If you think otherwise, name a dozen third sackers who were greater than Rolen, accounting for both career value and peak value. You'll have a very difficult time trying to do it.


He is in my book.

cumberlandreds
08-10-2009, 07:47 AM
No. If he has a couple of more really good years then he's in the consideration. But not until then,IMO.

hebroncougar
08-10-2009, 07:49 AM
I don't think so. He doesn't even have 2,000 hits. Top 5 MVP voting.....once. Probably won't end up with more than 350 HR's and he played in the roid era. He's got a ways to go IMO.

bucksfan2
08-10-2009, 08:40 AM
Who is/was a better defensive 3b? Past and present. Throw in his good bat and you have a very very good player.

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 08:57 AM
Yes, Rolen's a Hall of Famer.

If you think otherwise, name a dozen third sackers who were greater than Rolen, accounting for both career value and peak value. You'll have a very difficult time trying to do it.

I don't have 12 but off the top of my head these players are every bit Rolens equal or greater.

Buddy Bell
Craig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Bill Madlock
Ron Santo
Gary Gaetti

RANDY IN INDY
08-10-2009, 09:02 AM
That's a good list, George.

Cyclone792
08-10-2009, 09:02 AM
I don't have 12 but off the top of my head these players are every bit Rolens equal or greater.

Buddy Bell
Craig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Bill Madlock
Ron Santo
Gary Gaetti

Santo, yes.

The rest? Not even close.

redsmetz
08-10-2009, 09:08 AM
Santo, yes.

The rest? Not even close.

I think you're right and I like Rolen a lot. And the thing is about those others mentioned on that very good list, those all were very good ballplayers. Now a slacker in the whole bunch. But really only Santo, as you note, scratches at the HOF and the moribund vet committee doesn't agree - in fact, it seems they're not intent on letting anybody in.

Perhaps Rolen closes out his career spetacularly and makes the cut. Probably not, but it could happen.

jojo
08-10-2009, 09:23 AM
I don't have 12 but off the top of my head these players are every bit Rolens equal or greater.

Buddy Bell
Craig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Bill Madlock
Ron Santo
Gary Gaetti

What about Chipper Jones?

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 09:32 AM
What about Chipper Jones?

Well I thought Cyclone was wanting players who were not in the HOF.

Chipper doesn't qualify for that list as of yet.

HokieRed
08-10-2009, 09:58 AM
I don't have 12 but off the top of my head these players are every bit Rolens equal or greater.

Buddy Bell
Craig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Bill Madlock
Ron Santo
Gary Gaetti


Boyer and Santo, IMO, should be in. I loved those two players and firmly believe Ken Boyer is the best eligible player not in the Hall. But Rolen will have a better overall career if he can continue another 3 years.

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 10:06 AM
But Rolen will have a better overall career if he can continue another 3 years.

I don't disagree that Rolen may make the HOF one day (assuming he stays healthy), however as of now I don't see it.

In fact I hope Rolen does one day make the HOF because someone a while back made the comment that with Griffey being gone this is the first time that a Reds team has not had a HOF'er on the roster going back to the Frank Robinson days. Assuming Larkin makes it.

M2
08-10-2009, 10:11 AM
He's pretty darn close. A bit more in the way of counting stats and he'll be there.

100 RBI seasons:

Brooks Robinson - 2
George Brett - 4
Scott Rolen - 5 (which is also more than everyone on GA's list)

Another couple of good years and Rolen should be a no-brainer.

HokieRed
08-10-2009, 10:20 AM
Only problem as I see it, M2, is that Santo and Boyer should also be no-brainers. I'd guess Santo's numbers are probably the ones Rolen needs to surpass to make it a lock. Means he needs about 500 more hits, 60 more HR's, 240 more RBI's. His OPS is already way ahead of Santo's: .870 to .826; he's had, as you point out, more 100 RBI seasons, and I'd guess the consensus will be that he's a somewhat better fielder than Santo, though Santo won several Gold Gloves too.

M2
08-10-2009, 10:27 AM
Only problem as I see it, M2, is that Santo and Boyer should also be no-brainers. I'd guess Santo's numbers are probably the ones Rolen needs to surpass to make it a lock. Means he needs about 500 more hits, 60 more HR's, 240 more RBI's. His OPS is already way ahead of Santo's: .870 to .826; he's had, as you point out, more 100 RBI seasons, and I'd guess the consensus will be that he's a somewhat better fielder than Santo, though Santo won several Gold Gloves too.

I agree those counting stats would seal the deal.

Though, as you note, there's a common misperception that 3Bs should hit the same as 1Bs and corner OFs. Mike Schmidt and George Brett set a fairly impossible standard. Unfortunately for Santo and Boyer, when they became HOF eligible that's the standard they got measured against.

Cyclone792
08-10-2009, 10:28 AM
Well I thought Cyclone was wanting players who were not in the HOF.

Chipper doesn't qualify for that list as of yet.

My comment had to do with all third basemen period, regardless if they were in the Hall of Fame or not.

My take is if a player is quite easily amongst the top 15 all-time at his position, then that player is a Hall of Famer. Scott Rolen passes this test already even if he never plays another big league game in his career - I've got him pegged down for 10th all-time currently, and Chipper is one of the guys in front of him. Now obviously the Hall is lacking in the third base department, but that's simply a massive omission on the part of Hall voters. There are several third basemen (Santo, Hack, Groh, etc.) who should be in the Hall but are on the outside looking in.

Still, that doesn't mean Rolen should also be on the outside looking in. If it were up to me, I'd send that entire quartet in over the next few years.

Cyclone792
08-10-2009, 10:33 AM
One interesting sidenote here: I loathe the Cubs as much as the next guy, but they've gotten the shaft at third base from Cooperstown. They've got two third basemen - Santo and Hack - who combined to give the Cubs 31 seasons and 4,181 games while playing their entire careers with the Cubs, and both those guys should be in the Hall of Fame.

Santo will likely eventually get in, but Hack probably has no shot given the era he played in as there is already a stigma that the 1930s has too many questionable players enshrined (despite the fact that Hack wouldn't fit in that grouping, IMO).

RedsManRick
08-10-2009, 10:54 AM
Yes. Considering both his offensive and defensive contributions, he clears the bar as of today. I figure 1-2 players, per position, per decade on average. That puts us at the top 10-20 at each position, which Rolen easily is in.

Though his offense relative to his position isn't quite as great, I think Rolen is a decent comp for Larkin. Both had injury plagued careers, but were often among the (if not the) best at their position when healthy and were undervalued because of the well-roundedness of their games.

bucksfan2
08-10-2009, 11:06 AM
Yes. Considering both his offensive and defensive contributions, he clears the bar as of today. I figure 1-2 players, per position, per decade on average. That puts us at the top 10-20 at each position, which Rolen easily is in.

Though his offense relative to his position isn't quite as great, I think Rolen is a decent comp for Larkin. Both had injury plagued careers, but were often among the (if not the) best at their position when healthy and were undervalued because of the well-roundedness of their games.

Rolen may face the same issues that Larkin faces. The roided up big market players towards the end of their careers that take away from their luster. Larkin may be judged in comparison with Jeter, Tejada, ARod, and Nomar. Although as the test of time passes Larkin's numbers look better. But when you look at Rolen he will be compared by Wright and ARod, both NY market cities. Rolens, like Larkins, biggest flaw may be that he never played in a big market.

OnBaseMachine
08-10-2009, 11:27 AM
Yes. It would be a crime if he doesn't make the Hall of Fame. Not only is he one of the greatest defensive third baseman in baseball history, his bat is well above average as well. Before his career is over he should finish with over 2,000 hits (1,775 right now) and 300 homers (281 now). His .870 OPS and 124 OPS+ is higher than these other Hall of Fame third sackers: Brooks Robinson (104), Jimmy Collins (113), Pie Traynor (107), George Kell (111), and Freddie Lindstrom (109). He's a HOF lock, IMO.

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 12:07 PM
Baseballreference.com has Rolen ranked with the following list of players. Only 2 of the 20 are in the HOF.


Similar Batters

Tim Salmon (902)
Carlos Beltran (899)
Jermaine Dye (890)
Ken Caminiti (890)
Ryan Klesko (887)
Rudy York (885)
Miguel Tejada (882)
Brian Giles (878)
Dante Bichette (876)
Carlos Lee (875)


Similar Batters through age 33

Reggie Smith (903)
Bobby Bonilla (898)
Shawn Green (887)
Miguel Tejada (885)
Rudy York (885)
Robin Ventura (880)
Ken Boyer (878)
Tony Perez (874) *
Matt Williams (873)
Yogi Berra (873) *
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

kaldaniels
08-10-2009, 12:41 PM
Rolen may face the same issues that Larkin faces. The roided up big market players towards the end of their careers that take away from their luster. Larkin may be judged in comparison with Jeter, Tejada, ARod, and Nomar. Although as the test of time passes Larkin's numbers look better. But when you look at Rolen he will be compared by Wright and ARod, both NY market cities. Rolens, like Larkins, biggest flaw may be that he never played in a big market.

They face the same issues, but to differing degrees. Larkin holds an edge right now.

LoganBuck
08-10-2009, 01:52 PM
Baseballreference.com has Rolen ranked with the following list of players. Only 2 of the 20 are in the HOF.


Similar Batters

Tim Salmon (902)
Carlos Beltran (899)
Jermaine Dye (890)
Ken Caminiti (890)
Ryan Klesko (887)
Rudy York (885)
Miguel Tejada (882)
Brian Giles (878)
Dante Bichette (876)
Carlos Lee (875)


Similar Batters through age 33

Reggie Smith (903)
Bobby Bonilla (898)
Shawn Green (887)
Miguel Tejada (885)
Rudy York (885)
Robin Ventura (880)
Ken Boyer (878)
Tony Perez (874) *
Matt Williams (873)
Yogi Berra (873) *
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

Those lists are similar "batters", Rolen is a spectacular fielder as well. Both sides of the coin apply when talking about Rolen.

TheNext44
08-10-2009, 01:54 PM
Yes. Considering both his offensive and defensive contributions, he clears the bar as of today. I figure 1-2 players, per position, per decade on average. That puts us at the top 10-20 at each position, which Rolen easily is in.

Though his offense relative to his position isn't quite as great, I think Rolen is a decent comp for Larkin. Both had injury plagued careers, but were often among the (if not the) best at their position when healthy and were undervalued because of the well-roundedness of their games.

I think it depends on which question you are asking.

Does Rolen deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, if he retired today? I would say yes. You and Cyclone have shown why. He clearly was one of the top 15 at his position in the history of baseball, and one of the top 2 players at his position during his career.

Would the Hall of Fame vote him in right now, if he retired today? I would say absolutely not.

Hall of Fame voters still use counting stats as their main criteria. Until that changes, and I think slowly it will, Rolen stays out until he plays longer.

George Anderson
08-10-2009, 03:00 PM
Those lists are similar "batters", Rolen is a spectacular fielder as well. Both sides of the coin apply when talking about Rolen.

Matt Williams has 378 HR's to Rolens 281 HR's. Williams has 1218 RBI's to Rolens 1107 RBI's. Rolen does have Williams in BA .284 to .268. Fielding wise they both have similar fielding percentages with Rolen having the edge in GG's of 7 to Williams 4.

Having said all that even if we do give an edge to Rolen, you have to admit they are somewhat similar players in performance. However in last years HOF voting Williams only got 1.7% of the 75% needed for induction. If writers don't think that highly of Williams to only give him 1.7% then I cannot see them thinking that much higher of Rolen to give him the needed 75%.

pahster
08-10-2009, 03:04 PM
Matt Williams has 378 HR's to Rolens 281 HR's. Williams has 1218 RBI's to Rolens 1107 RBI's. Rolen does have Williams in BA .284 to .268. Fielding wise they both have similar fielding percentages with Rolen having the edge in GG's of 7 to Williams 4.

Having said all that even if we do give an edge to Rolen, you have to admit they are somewhat similar players in performance. However in last years HOF voting Williams only got 1.7% of the 75% needed for induction. If writers don't think that highly of Williams to only give him 1.7% then I cannot see them thinking that much higher of Rolen to give him the needed 75%.

Rolen and Williams aren't all that similar; Rolen knew where first base is (.370 career OBP for him compared to Williams' .317).

Eric_the_Red
08-10-2009, 03:13 PM
Rolen and Williams aren't all that similar; Rolen knew where first base is (.370 career OBP for him compared to Williams' .317).


Besides, we all know about the HOF voters' hair bias:

http://archive.philadelphia.comcastsportsnet.com/news/images/091701-rolen_wave.jpg

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/2001/worldseries/news/2001/10/28/pearlman_williams/t1_williams_ap-01.jpg

marcshoe
08-10-2009, 03:16 PM
No fair. That's a young Rolen, and I believe the top of his head is slowly taking on a Matt Williamsish appearance these days.

Slowly.

http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Scott-Rolen.jpg

If you look close here, you can see it.

dfs
08-10-2009, 03:25 PM
Rolen and Williams aren't all that similar; Rolen knew where first base is (.370 career OBP for him compared to Williams' .317).

They're similar enough that you can extrapolate that since Williams drew absolutely no hof support that Rolen is going to shortchanged as well.

HOF discussions are strange.

Does Scott Rolen belong in the HOF based on the fact that he is similar to guys already in the hall of fame?...sure he does.

Will writers vote Scott Rolen in? No. Can't see how they would based on his current body of work.

If I ran the HOF would I put Rolen in? Well, everybody has a threshold. I think if you don't put Rolen in then your hall of fame is a very small one. I tend to think there are a ton of guys out in the cold who belong in the HOF starting with Santo and Davey. Rolen certainly belongs in my HOF. Other people disagree where that line is.

Note that the last HOF type player the reds traded for wasn't really much of an asset to the team. I'm just sayin.

cincrazy
08-10-2009, 04:21 PM
Scott Rolen will be an interesting case. He's easily one of the best 3B of this era, but there isn't an abundance of 3B in the hall. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 3B the position with the least amount of Hall of Famers?

I think Rolen falls just shy. If his last 3 years would have been more productive and less injury prone, he'd have a much stronger argument. But as of now, I don't think his overall body of work is enough.

Edit: Is this question asking for our personal opinion regarding Rolen in the Hall, or is it asking whether he'll get voted in?

kaldaniels
08-10-2009, 05:06 PM
Scott Rolen will be an interesting case. He's easily one of the best 3B of this era, but there isn't an abundance of 3B in the hall. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 3B the position with the least amount of Hall of Famers?

I think Rolen falls just shy. If his last 3 years would have been more productive and less injury prone, he'd have a much stronger argument. But as of now, I don't think his overall body of work is enough.

Edit: Is this question asking for our personal opinion regarding Rolen in the Hall, or is it asking whether he'll get voted in?

When I asked the question, I meant it to be determined as will Scott Rolen get in the Hall of Fame. We can go round and round about our "personal" Hall of Fames, so take the question as it reads, is he a Hall of Famer? Feel free to chime in with supplemental points of course.

MattyHo4Life
08-10-2009, 07:55 PM
I don't think he would get voted in if his caeer ended today, but I hope he plays long enough to make it into the HOF. Rolen is an amazing player. He is the best defensive Third Baseman that I've ever seen. I'll be at the game tomorrow night, and I was hoping to see Rolen play, but it doesn't look like he will.

The said earlier on the News that Rolen and LaRussa had a closed door discussion today in LaRussa's office. The good thing is that they both made it out alive. lol

RedsBaron
08-11-2009, 07:33 AM
Santo, yes.

The rest? Not even close.

Whoa! Saying that Santo is Hall of Fame worthy and that all of the others listed in George Anderson's list are "not even close" is flat wrong. The list included Ken Boyer, and Boyer is most definitely "close" to Santo. I would vote to induct both Santo and Boyer into the HOF, but it is hard for me to draw a line between the two.

Cyclone792
08-11-2009, 07:46 AM
Whoa! Saying that Santo is Hall of Fame worthy and that all of the others listed in George Anderson's list are "not even close" is flat wrong. The list included Ken Boyer, and Boyer is most definitely "close" to Santo. I would vote to induct both Santo and Boyer into the HOF, but it is hard for me to draw a line between the two.

I really don't think it's all that close, especially with peak value considered.

Boyer had only two seasons with a WARP3 of 7 or higher (7.3 in 1964 and 7.0 in 1960) wheras Santo had four seasons at 8 or higher, including two seasons at 11 or higher. Boyer had some fine seasons, but he didn't put up anything in his career that was within the same realm as what Santo did in 1964 and 1966.

Like Santo, Rolen's 1998 and 2004 seasons was considerably better than anything Boyer ever did.

I've got the win shares data at home, but I don't remember that being particularly close either.

RedsBaron
08-11-2009, 09:43 AM
I really don't think it's all that close, especially with peak value considered.

Boyer had only two seasons with a WARP3 of 7 or higher (7.3 in 1964 and 7.0 in 1960) wheras Santo had four seasons at 8 or higher, including two seasons at 11 or higher. Boyer had some fine seasons, but he didn't put up anything in his career that was within the same realm as what Santo did in 1964 and 1966.

Like Santo, Rolen's 1998 and 2004 seasons was considerably better than anything Boyer ever did.

I've got the win shares data at home, but I don't remember that being particularly close either.

I've already said I would give the edge to Santo, but to claim that Boyer wasn't in the realm of Santo or even close to him as a player........well...
Santo and Boyer were about as direct contemporaries as you could hope to find, right-handed hitting third basemen who each played 15 seasons, primarily in the NL, with Boyer playing from 1955 through 1969 and Santo from 1960 through 1974.
Each was essentially done as a quality player after age 33.
Santo was a nine time NL All Star, while Boyer was a seven time NL All Star.
Each won five Gold Gloves, with Boyer taking the honor from 1959 through 1963 and Santo taking over from 1964 through 1968 (Ken's brother Clete won in 1969).
Hitting stats are fairly close, with Santo's biggest edge coming from his having been a somewhat more patient hitter and drawing more walks. Santo leads in hits, 2254-2143, home runs 342-282, RBI 1331-1141, and OBP, .362-.349. Boyer leads in batting average, .287-.277. Slugging percentage is nearly even with Santo leading .464-.462.
The average member of the Hall of Fame has a Hall of Fame batting standards score of 50. Santo had 41 and Boyer 35, edge to Santo (Scott Rolen has a score of 36). The Hall of Fame Monitor score is closer still: Santo 88, Boyer 86 (average Hall of Famer has a score of 100; Rolen has a score of 64).
The most similar hitter to Ron Santo in baseball history is Dale Murphy, with a similarity score of 875, just ahead of the similarity score of Ken Boyer of 874. Now a score above 900 would indicate two players who were extremely similar, but still the second most similar hitter to Santo in all of the game's history is Boyer.
I don't have my copy of Bill James's "The Politics of Glory: Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame" at my office, but I can recall that James wrote (this would have been about 15 years ago) that if he could put just one guy into the Hall of Fame who had been overlooked by voters he would select Santo. However, James went on to write that it was a close debate as to who was better, Santo or Boyer, and concluded by saying that he would vote to induct both of them.

BCubb2003
08-11-2009, 09:48 AM
"The Politics of Glory" is an excellent description of the Hall of Fame.

HokieRed
08-11-2009, 09:49 AM
Whoa! Saying that Santo is Hall of Fame worthy and that all of the others listed in George Anderson's list are "not even close" is flat wrong. The list included Ken Boyer, and Boyer is most definitely "close" to Santo. I would vote to induct both Santo and Boyer into the HOF, but it is hard for me to draw a line between the two.

I agree 100%. During their primes, Boyer was, in fact, the better player. I've always argued that it's the linkage of the two that hurts both. Some think Santo should go in but not Boyer; some the reverse. Yet everybody can see that they're very similar, so it works against both. I think the same phenomenon has hurt both Trammell and Concepcion. If you start to make the argument for Trammell, then somebody asks, "But what about Concepcion?" and vice versa. Solution on Santo/Boyer is to put both in, but I don't think that will ever happen. One thing I think Rolen has to worry about is comparison to these two b/c they'll be raised as the inevitable comps. That's why I suggested earlier that the key for his becoming a lock--so clear that even the most dunderheaded voter can't keep him out--is to put up counting stats greater than Santo's.

M2
08-11-2009, 09:51 AM
"The Politics of Glory" is an excellent description of the Hall of Fame.

It seems the true qualification is whether enough writers wrote paeans to the player during his playing days.

George Anderson
08-11-2009, 09:58 AM
The most similar hitter to Ron Santo in baseball history is Dale Murphy, with a similarity score of 875, just ahead of the similarity score of Ken Boyer of 874.

Lets throw the following third basemen in the mix to.

Craig Nettles 895
Gary Gaetti 895
Darrell Evans 905

Cyclone792
08-11-2009, 10:13 AM
I've already said I would give the edge to Santo, but to claim that Boyer wasn't in the realm of Santo or even close to him as a player........well...

RB, I'm still not seeing it. Case in point:

Santo Top 5 WARP3
10.5
10.3
9.4
8.0
6.2
Total: 44.4

Boyer Top 5 WARP3
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.5
6.5
Total: 34.0

The difference there is significant; BP's got Santo at a 10.4 win edge over the course of their top five peak seasons. In fact, from 1964-1967, Santo had a combined 156 OPS+ in 641 games. Boyer's career high OPS+ was only 144 in 1960; Santo had four straight seasons topping that with ease.

Boyer was a solid player, but Santo had a four year stretch where he eclipses him, and it isn't close to me.

Cyclone792
08-11-2009, 10:18 AM
For a comparison base, here's Rolen's top 5 WARP3s:
11.6
11.1
9.6
8.5
6.5
Total: 47.3

WARP3 gives Rolen even a slight edge over Santo, though that can partially be attributed to their era adjustments. But Rolen smashes Boyer here in peak value too.

Win shares tells almost the identical story to these three players as well.

RedsManRick
08-11-2009, 03:20 PM
I think we need to clarify the question.

If the question is, "Will Scott Rolen be elected to the HOF?", I would say probably not. If they didn't and still won't put Santo in, I don't think they'll put Rolen in.

But if the question is, "Will Scott Rolen deserve to be elected to the HOF?", I would say yes. Just like Santo, Blyleven, Raines, etc.

dfs
08-11-2009, 03:51 PM
Discussions about HOF voting are further muddied by the question of what the profile of the electing body will look like. Likely Rolen will not be voted upon for another 10 years. How many daily beat writers will newspapers have covering MLB by then? 5? 40? I don't know. Sooner or later that pool will have to change as well.

kaldaniels
08-11-2009, 04:43 PM
I think we need to clarify the question.

If the question is, "Will Scott Rolen be elected to the HOF?", I would say probably not. If they didn't and still won't put Santo in, I don't think they'll put Rolen in.

But if the question is, "Will Scott Rolen deserve to be elected to the HOF?", I would say yes. Just like Santo, Blyleven, Raines, etc.

Clarification to those who wanted it is on page 3 of the thread.

marcshoe
08-11-2009, 04:51 PM
The obvious answer to the question is no. He's still active, and won't be eligible for some time.

kaldaniels
08-11-2009, 05:00 PM
I would ask this...is there a comp for Rolen in the Hall now?. I'm just guessing but I can see him ending up with only 2200 hits or so...would that do the job?

GAC
08-11-2009, 05:45 PM
Who is/was a better defensive 3b? Past and present.

Rolen is as sound a defensive 3Bman as it comes. But IMO, he still can't compare to Brooks Robinson. Gawd I still remember that 1970 World Series.

And I'd still take guys named George Brett and Mike Schmidt over Rolen.

And there is also this guy in ATL named Chipper Jones who has carved out a pretty good career.

Other notables to mention?....

Eddie Mathews, Paul Molitor.

But Rolen is up there.

The Best Third Baseman in Each MLB Franchise's History

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/208610-the-best-third-basemen-in-each-mlb-franchises-history

nice slide show

RedsBaron
08-11-2009, 08:17 PM
I would ask this...is there a comp for Rolen in the Hall now?. I'm just guessing but I can see him ending up with only 2200 hits or so...would that do the job?

Baseball-Reference.com ranks as the most similar hitter to Rolen Tim Salmon, with a similarity score of 902. Of course, Salmon was not a third baseman. Among third basemen the closest similarity score would be the 890 of Ken Caminiti, who had a bit of chemical help. None of the top ten comparables are in the HOF.
Among players through age 33 (Rolen's present age), at that age the closest similarity score would be that of Reggie Smith (903), who was a very good player, though not a Hall of Famer (and an outfielder).
The list of other comparables at age 33 does include a number of third basemen or at least quasi-third basemen, starting with Bobby Bonilla (898) and Robin Ventura (880). The seventh most comparable at age 33 is Ken Boyer with a score of 878. Then we have Tony Perez at 874; Tony played thrid from 1967 through 1971. Matt Williams has a score of 873. Of the comparables at age 33, Perez is the only one in the Hall of Fame.

Cyclone792
08-11-2009, 08:25 PM
Win Shares peak season data:

Santo: 38, 36, 32, 30, 28 (164 five season peak)
Rolen: 38, 30, 29, 29, 28 (154 five season peak)
Boyer: 31, 28, 27, 24, 24 (134 five season peak)

HokieRed
08-11-2009, 08:36 PM
Rolen is as sound a defensive 3Bman as it comes. But IMO, he still can't compare to Brooks Robinson. Gawd I still remember that 1970 World Series.

And I'd still take guys named George Brett and Mike Schmidt over Rolen.

And there is also this guy in ATL named Chipper Jones who has carved out a pretty good career.

Other notables to mention?....

Eddie Mathews, Paul Molitor.

But Rolen is up there.

The Best Third Baseman in Each MLB Franchise's History

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/208610-the-best-third-basemen-in-each-mlb-franchises-history

nice slide show

Defensively, of the guys mentioned here apart from Schmidt and Robinson, and perhaps Rolen, Boyer was easily the best defensively, IMO.

HokieRed
08-11-2009, 08:37 PM
Win Shares peak season data:

Santo: 38, 36, 32, 30, 28 (164 five season peak)
Rolen: 38, 30, 29, 29, 28 (154 five season peak)
Boyer: 31, 28, 27, 24, 24 (134 five season peak)

Anecdotally, Boyer was, IMO, better than Santo defensively, though both had, I believe, the same number of gold gloves.

RedsBaron
08-11-2009, 08:55 PM
The method of calculating Win Shares has varied since Bill James first published the concept nearly ten years ago. In his New Histroical Baseball Abstract, the numbers he had for Santo and Boyer were slightly diferent than those given by Cyclone in his post, which I assume reflect the latest method.
Anyway, in the above book James ranked Ron Santo has the sixth greatest third baseman ever, behind Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs and Home Run Baker, while Ken Boyer was ranked 12th.
Schmidt topped everybody for career Win Shares with 468, top three Win Shares with 39, 37, and 36, top five cumulative score with 171 and per 162 game average with 31.54.
Santo at that time had a career Win Share total of 322 compared to Boyer's 280; Santo's top three scores were 37, 36 and 32 to Boyer's 31, 28 and 27; top five cumulative scores were 162 Santo and 131 Boyer; and the per 162 games scores were 23.26 Santo and 22.30 Boyer.
If James did an updated edition today, Chipper Jones could possibly move ahead of Santo in the rankings; I haven't compared their numbers. There may also be the issue of which position to rank A-Rod at (and how you feel about juicing).
There are a few Hall of Fame third basemen who clearly rank below Santo and Boyer (and whom James ranked below them), including Pie Traynor, Jimmy Collins, George Kell and Freddie Lindstrom (who has no business in the HOF).
When I was a kid first reading about baseball in the 1960s and 70s, the all time teams always had Traynor at third base, which was silly even then, as Mathews and Baker were much better players. I can recall a brief article in a 1969 issue of "Sport Magazine" in which Traynor himself declared that Ken Boyer was the best third baseman he had ever seen.

MWM
08-11-2009, 09:03 PM
An easy yes from me. Best defensive third baseman I've ever seen. No one else has been even close in the past 20 years.

RFS62
08-11-2009, 10:43 PM
There are some players you see who transcend their numbers.

Maz, Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew..... guys who did what they did in such a stylized manor. If that were the only standard, Buddy Bell would be in the hall. But he never had the stick that Rolen has shown over his career.

Rolen has the complete game. He's a very unique total package. He's fundamentally sound and often spectacular on defense and a major threat at the plate.

He reminds me a lot of Bench in his intensity and guts. Both guys were superstars who played through nagging injuries.

He belongs in the hall.

marcshoe
08-12-2009, 01:32 AM
An easy yes from me. Best defensive third baseman I've ever seen. No one else has been even close in the past 20 years.


True, but does he have the reputation of Brooks Robinson? Publicity trumps reality.

Offensively, I worry that steroid era numbers are going to make it so players have to put up ridiculous numbers to be considered, which would be ironic, considering the players putting up ridiculous numbers were often the ones who were juicing.

I've been a fan of Rolen's ever since I saw him tear the ball to center, over and off the wall, repeatedly in a series at Riverfront at the end of '98. My take would be that he needs to stay healthy the next three years in order to get serious consideration, though.

cincrazy
08-12-2009, 07:32 AM
I was kind of on the fence about this question until reading many of the responses in this thread. Now I'd probably say I feel that Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer, in my mind anyways.

But I don't think he gets the number of votes he needs when his time comes, barring a turnaround of fortunes the next few years. If somehow he turns into a veteran anchor on this team and has a few nice postseason moments along the Ohio River, well, that can't hurt his chances ;).

Now somebody please cue Jim Mora...