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TheNext44
08-12-2009, 01:09 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9926302/Angels-looking-to-upgrade-starting-pitching



Still, Reagins acknowledged that he was still looking for upgrades.

Reds right-handers Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, two high-salaried pitchers, recently cleared waivers, according to FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi.

"There are guys out there who have cleared who are expensive," Reagins said, without specifically mentioning Arroyo and Harang. "We don't have any limitations, budget-wise. If we want to take money, we can do that. But we have to make sure the investments make us better not only short-term, but long-term. We're evaluating that constantly."

Harang, 6-13 with a 4.43 ERA, and Arroyo, 10-11 with a 5.04 ERA, might not be economically sensible or well-suited for the American League. Harang, 31, is earning $11 million this season and $12.5 million next season, while Arroyo, 32, is earning $9.5 million this season and $11 million next season.

Edd Roush
08-12-2009, 01:13 PM
I hope we don't just give up Harang. I have thought he has started to turn it around these last couple of starts.

On the other hand, I think if the Angels just assumed Arroyo's full salary, I would be happy with that. Of course, I would prefer throwing in a bunch of money and coming back with Brandon Wood, but I don't know if they are going to give him up.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 01:33 PM
I hope we don't just give up Harang. I have thought he has started to turn it around these last couple of starts.

On the other hand, I think if the Angels just assumed Arroyo's full salary, I would be happy with that. Of course, I would prefer throwing in a bunch of money and coming back with Brandon Wood, but I don't know if they are going to give him up.

I might prefer to deal Arroyo to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy. After all, Hardy is what one could only hope Wood might someday be. If we're going for it in 2010, we need the sure thing- not the one day best-case scenario.

Edd Roush
08-12-2009, 01:40 PM
I might prefer to deal Arroyo to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy. After all, Hardy is what one could only hope Wood might someday be. If we're going for it in 2010, we need the sure thing- not the one day best-case scenario.

I'm not going to argue with you on that one. I just really want to see the shortstop position actually upgraded in the near future and both Wood & Hardy would be definite and real upgrades. Hardy definately has the D to stick there and since he plays short stop, he would be put in the 2 hole by Dusty and afforded sufficient protection by Votto or Phillips (if you believe in that sort of thing).

If we can trade Arroyo + cash for a league average shortstop, I would be a very happy camper and our infield would be set for 2010.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 01:43 PM
I'm not going to argue with you on that one. I just really want to see the shortstop position actually upgraded in the near future and both Wood & Hardy would be definite and real upgrades. Hardy definately has the D to stick there and since he plays short stop, he would be put in the 2 hole by Dusty and afforded sufficient protection by Votto or Phillips (if you believe in that sort of thing).

If we can trade Arroyo + cash for a league average shortstop, I would be a very happy camper and our infield would be set for 2010.

I don't think we'd need to add any cash to the deal for Hardy. He makes $4MM and is up for arbitration this year, although I can't imagine he gets much of a raise after his performance this year.

Arroyo for Hardy makes perfect sense right now, even if we have to add a (non-Yonder) prospect.

traderumor
08-12-2009, 01:49 PM
I see no reason why a team like the Dodgers or Angels that clearly need rotation help would hiccup at Harang's contract when he has the ability to significantly help in the postseason. I think in their budget world, he could easily earn his keep this year and next for them. Arroyo, no, but Harang, even though he is declining, still has at least league average left in the tank. I would think the Angels would want to do more in the playoffs than they have in the past, but they clearly have pitching problems that make that a longshot at this point.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 01:53 PM
I see no reason why a team like the Dodgers or Angels that clearly need rotation help would hiccup at Harang's contract when he has the ability to significantly help in the postseason. I think in their budget world, he could easily earn his keep this year and next for them. Arroyo, no, but Harang, even though he is declining, still has at least league average left in the tank. I would think the Angels would want to do more in the playoffs than they have in the past, but they clearly have pitching problems that make that a longshot at this point.

But I also don't think they'd give up enough talent to make me want to dump Harang. Arroyo maybe, but I'd shop him to Milwaukee first. They might be the only team that would be willing to trade an asset right now that could help the Reds immensely in 2010.

Edd Roush
08-12-2009, 01:54 PM
So, do only players on major league rosters need to pass through waivers in August, or is it every player on the 40 man roster? I can't remember what Buck & Castillo's situation was last year.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2009, 01:54 PM
Hardy is a free agent after next year. If the Reds acquire him, but cannot sign him, the team will be in the exact same position next year. Meanwhile, they'll have bypassed an offseason market that includes Miguel Tejada and Marco Scutaro -- those guys are pretty old, but they're productive and could stay that way for a couple years, perhaps -- longer than Hardy would be around.

I'm not against getting Hardy -- just pointing out that he's not really an "under control" player.

WMR
08-12-2009, 01:56 PM
Jocketty failed massively to fix the SS problem last offseason or during this season. Relying on Gonzo to give the Reds anything was just dumb. Everyone knew that besides the Reds, apparently.

Hopefully he won't fail again for 2010.

redsmetz
08-12-2009, 02:02 PM
Jocketty failed massively to fix the SS problem last offseason or during this season. Relying on Gonzo to give the Reds anything was just dumb. Everyone knew that besides the Reds, apparently.

Hopefully he won't fail again for 2010.

We can argue this endlessly (which we do), but given the contract situation with Gonzalez (and irrespective of whether we made a good deal or not; circumstances have made it not good), it made addressing shortstop a matter down the list, IMO. We had other more pressing needs which they didn't address or misfired on before it was necessary to find a shortstop. I know that's not a popular view and it's all water under the dam. It does need to be address this off season because they will not pick up Gonzo's option.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 02:02 PM
Hardy is a free agent after next year. If the Reds acquire him, but cannot sign him, the team will be in the exact same position next year. Meanwhile, they'll have bypassed an offseason market that includes Miguel Tejada and Marco Scutaro -- those guys are pretty old, but they're productive and could stay that way for a couple years, perhaps -- longer than Hardy would be around.

I'm not against getting Hardy -- just pointing out that he's not really an "under control" player.

I don't know that I'd have any interest in Scutaro or Tejada for 2011 and beyond, especially at the price tags they'll likely carry. Shortstops over 35 go quickly when they go- just ask Barry Larkin.

I think Hardy on a (cheap) one-year deal is perfect. It will buy the Reds enough time to see if they can contend or are going to go youth movement (in which case they could figure out exactly what they have in Cozart.)

Furthermore, with Harang, Hardy, Rolen (if he doesn't re-sign) and Rhodes all coming off the books after next year and Cordero's NTC becoming limited, they'll have an incredible opportunity to completely remake the roster.

jojo
08-12-2009, 02:16 PM
I'm not going to argue with you on that one. I just really want to see the shortstop position actually upgraded in the near future and both Wood & Hardy would be definite and real upgrades. Hardy definately has the D to stick there and since he plays short stop, he would be put in the 2 hole by Dusty and afforded sufficient protection by Votto or Phillips (if you believe in that sort of thing).

If we can trade Arroyo + cash for a league average shortstop, I would be a very happy camper and our infield would be set for 2010.

Why would the Brewers trade Hardy for Arroyo? Maybe they nibble at Harang but Melvin has been quoted as saying there hasn't been any starters pass through waivers that he likes.

Edd Roush
08-12-2009, 02:19 PM
Why would the Brewers trade Hardy for Arroyo? Maybe they nibble at Harang but Melvin has been quoted as saying there hasn't been any starters pass through waivers that he likes.

Just following some speculation on this board. I wouldn't mind including prospect(s) to get a league average shortstop and addressing a major need. I have no inside knowledge in the Brewers' front office nor DMs intentions.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 02:23 PM
Why would the Brewers trade Hardy for Arroyo? Maybe they nibble at Harang but Melvin has been quoted as saying there hasn't been any starters pass through waivers that he likes.

He also doesn't seem to like JJ Hardy as evidenced by his demotion today. Why not trade one dislike for another and potentially fill a need in the process?

jojo
08-12-2009, 02:27 PM
He also doesn't seem to like JJ Hardy as evidenced by his demotion today. Why not trade one dislike for another and potentially fill a need in the process?

Because Hardy is a valuable commodity. Arroyo and his contract is closer to a liability. Besides Hardy's presence is insurance for Alcides Escobar and a month of pounding AAA pitching can only help Hardy's value.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 02:30 PM
Besides Hardy's presence is insurance for Alcides Escobar and a month of pounding AAA pitching can only help Hardy's value.

Maybe, but it's not going to help Milwaukee's playoff push.

jojo
08-12-2009, 02:33 PM
Maybe, but it's not going to help Milwaukee's playoff push.

Arroyo is?

The Yankees actually have playoff chances, payroll room, and a need for pitching and they passed on both Harang and Arroyo.

osuceltic
08-12-2009, 02:38 PM
The overwhelming preference for Harang over Arroyo is weird to me. Arroyo has more quality starts and a higher percentage of quality starts. His overall numbers are pretty close to Harang's, even with two massive stat-busting starts in there.

At this point, I'd actually rather keep Arroyo. Although my preference remains to keep them both unless the return is real talent. I don't trust payflex.

traderumor
08-12-2009, 02:44 PM
The overwhelming preference for Harang over Arroyo is weird to me. Arroyo has more quality starts and a higher percentage of quality starts. His overall numbers are pretty close to Harang's, even with two massive stat-busting starts in there.

At this point, I'd actually rather keep Arroyo. Although my preference remains to keep them both unless the return is real talent. I don't trust payflex.All bad starts are "stat-busting." So, we just throw them out for the guy with the worst "stat-busting" starts and say "A & B are the same pitcher"?
As far as which pitcher is better, I would say that Harang has the higher upside, doesn't have carpal tunnel, and would be more likely to give a solid playoff start or two than Arroyo.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 02:45 PM
Arroyo is?

The Yankees actually have playoff chances, payroll room, and a need for pitching and they passed on both Harang and Arroyo.

Yep, a lot more than the crap they're throwing out there now.

jojo
08-12-2009, 02:54 PM
Yep, a lot more than the crap they're throwing out there now.

Reasonable people could argue at length about whether Arroyo is even a meaningful upgrade for the Brewers rotation.

He's almost certainly not a guy that one would argue the Brewers would target as an impact starter for their playoff push.

This is all before even considering Arroyo's salary.

osuceltic
08-12-2009, 03:10 PM
All bad starts are "stat-busting." So, we just throw them out for the guy with the worst "stat-busting" starts and say "A & B are the same pitcher"?
As far as which pitcher is better, I would say that Harang has the higher upside, doesn't have carpal tunnel, and would be more likely to give a solid playoff start or two than Arroyo.

But those two starts do far more damage statistically than they do in the real world. They're just two losses. But they stain his numbers more than that.

As for your second paragraph, sounds like a lot of opinion (other than the carpal tunnel thing, which is so overblown it's ridiculous ... hasn't been much of an issue in the second half). Like I said ... it's weird.

jojo
08-12-2009, 03:13 PM
But those two starts do far more damage statistically than they do in the real world. They're just two losses. But they stain his numbers more than that.

As for your second paragraph, sounds like a lot of opinion (other than the carpal tunnel thing, which is so overblown it's ridiculous ... hasn't been much of an issue in the second half). Like I said ... it's weird.

I think TR is correct about the two going forward. Harang has better command and "make 'em miss" ability suggesting he'll likely be better than Arroyo going forward.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 03:16 PM
Reasonable people could argue at length about whether Arroyo is even a meaningful upgrade for the Brewers rotation.

He's almost certainly not a guy that one would argue the Brewers would target as an impact starter for their playoff push.

This is all before even considering Arroyo's salary.

If you'll note I also included Drew Stubbs, who presumably has trade value as a BA Top 100 prospect. If I'm not mistaken, Cameron's contract is up after this year and this would allow them to get cheaper, especially after taking on Arroyo's contract.

jojo
08-12-2009, 03:29 PM
If you'll note I also included Drew Stubbs, who presumably has trade value as a BA Top 100 prospect. If I'm not mistaken, Cameron's contract is up after this year and this would allow them to get cheaper, especially after taking on Arroyo's contract.

So trading Hardy would be about the future rather than a playoff push?

Are the Brewers giving up on Lorenzo Cain?

traderumor
08-12-2009, 03:36 PM
But those two starts do far more damage statistically than they do in the real world. They're just two losses. But they stain his numbers more than that.

As for your second paragraph, sounds like a lot of opinion (other than the carpal tunnel thing, which is so overblown it's ridiculous ... hasn't been much of an issue in the second half). Like I said ... it's weird.If we have to throw out his honkers, then we have to throw out his gems. Sort of like throwing out the two high judges and two low judges in swimming or gymnastics?

All the numbers count, although I'm sure if some GM is trying to justify a transaction with Arroyo, your argument would be thrown out there. To which the owner should say, "sorry, I do not want Arroyo throwing a couple of those honkers in the middle of the pennant race. For that kind of money, we need someone a bit more reliable."

Benihana
08-12-2009, 03:38 PM
So trading Hardy would be about the future rather than a playoff push?

Are the Brewers giving up on Lorenzo Cain?

Nope.

How does Stubbs impede the playoff push?

The way I see it, this trade helps the Brewers for the playoff push and the future. Hardy isn't helping them with either.

Coming into the year, Lorenzo Cain wasn't even a Top 5 prospect in a weak Brewers system. Since then, the former 17th round pick has OPSed .600 this year in A and AA. I'd hardly say they're counting on him anytime soon.

CTA513
08-12-2009, 03:39 PM
But those two starts do far more damage statistically than they do in the real world. They're just two losses. But they stain his numbers more than that.

As for your second paragraph, sounds like a lot of opinion (other than the carpal tunnel thing, which is so overblown it's ridiculous ... hasn't been much of an issue in the second half). Like I said ... it's weird.

If you took out Arroyos 1 inning and 9 earned runs he still has the higher ERA on the season.

Both guys have pitched some pretty bad games this season.
Harang will walk fewer guys and still has the ability to strike hitters out.
We have also seen over the last couple of starts that Harangs velocity is up after he made some adjustments.
I don't know if he will get back to being the same pitcher he was a few years ago but his fastball and slider have looked better.

traderumor
08-12-2009, 03:42 PM
FWIW, Rosenthal dissed both of them on MLB Network last night as "yes, the Angels need help in the rotation, but I wouldn't be looking to either of those to provide it." (paraphrased)

jojo
08-12-2009, 03:42 PM
Nope.

How does Stubbs impede the playoff push?

The way I see it, this trade helps the Brewers for the playoff push and the future. Hardy isn't helping them with either.

Lorenzo Cain isn't even a Top 5 prospect in a weak Brewers system. The former 17th round pick has OPSed .600 this year in A and AA. I'd hardly say they're counting on him anytime soon.

You're missing the point-it's not that Stubbs impedes a playoff push. Taking on Arroyo in order to get Stubbs doesn't give any momentum to a playoff push.

BTW, Cain's season is colored by an early knee injury. Blindly looking at his numbers this season isn't that telling.

Chip R
08-12-2009, 03:46 PM
I would think Harang would be the kind of guy who with a mechanical adjustment or two, he would revert to his previous form. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll get that here.

Benihana
08-12-2009, 03:46 PM
You're missing the point-it's not that Stubbs impedes a playoff push. Taking on Arroyo in order to get Stubbs doesn't give any momentum to a playoff push.

BTW, Cain's season is colored by an early knee injury. Blindly looking at his numbers this season isn't that telling.

Again, you're missing the point. Arroyo is materially better than what the Brewers are currently throwing out there. Add in Stubbs, factor in Hardy is being paid $4.5MM to play in the minors, and voila- a trade that makes sense.

Knee injuries aren't good for CFers, and Cain wasn't terribly impressive before the knee injury. Either way, he's 3 for 19 lifetime in AAA (before the injury) so I don't think he will be helping the Brewers anytime soon. He is the equivalent of a pre-2009 Heisey, except if you wipe out Heisey's 2009 and replace it with a debilitating knee injury and a .600 OPS in A and AA. Sounds awesome!

jojo
08-12-2009, 03:54 PM
Again, Arroyo is materially better than what the Brewers are currently throwing out there. Add in Stubbs, factor in Hardy is being paid $4.5MM to play in the minors, and voila- a trade that makes sense.

Knee injuries aren't good for CFers, and Cain wasn't terribly impressive before the knee injury. Either way, he's 3 for 19 lifetime in AAA (before the injury) so I don't think he will be helping the Brewers anytime soon.

I don't think Arroyo to Milwaukee makes much sense for the Brewers for the reasons already stated in this and other threads. Even if Arroyo reverted back to a guy who could do a FIP of 4.80 the rest of the way, that performance in roughly 8-10 remaining starts simply isn't anywhere near enough impact for the Brewers to make up a 6.5 game deficit. I understand your point and disagree with it. Again this is without even beginning to consider the money he is owed.

In lieu of someone else adding something new to this particular issue or articulating why Arroyo's trade value has been underestimated, i'll beg out.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2009, 05:14 PM
Getting Harang or Arroyo would be important for the Brewers looking ahead to 2010. They are clearly in their window still, but it won't last if they can't come up with better starting pitching. There are no guarantees they could fill out the staff via free agency, so a trade now could be their best chance of shoring up the rotation for another good year in the NL Central in 2010.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2009, 05:24 PM
I hope we don't just give up Harang. I have thought he has started to turn it around these last couple of starts.

On the other hand, I think if the Angels just assumed Arroyo's full salary, I would be happy with that. Of course, I would prefer throwing in a bunch of money and coming back with Brandon Wood, but I don't know if they are going to give him up.

I sincerely doubt that Jocketty/BCast just give up Harang. Arroyo on the other hand......

mth123
08-12-2009, 08:51 PM
The overwhelming preference for Harang over Arroyo is weird to me. Arroyo has more quality starts and a higher percentage of quality starts. His overall numbers are pretty close to Harang's, even with two massive stat-busting starts in there.

At this point, I'd actually rather keep Arroyo. Although my preference remains to keep them both unless the return is real talent. I don't trust payflex.

Agree completely. Arroyo is a better bet going forward IMO.

Given the state of the staff, I'd keep them both and shop Cordero in the off-season to save money.

RedLegSuperStar
08-12-2009, 09:19 PM
The overwhelming preference for Harang over Arroyo is weird to me. Arroyo has more quality starts and a higher percentage of quality starts. His overall numbers are pretty close to Harang's, even with two massive stat-busting starts in there.

At this point, I'd actually rather keep Arroyo. Although my preference remains to keep them both unless the return is real talent. I don't trust payflex.

I can give you my reasoning why I'd rather have Harang over Arroyo.. Harang has had years of showing "Ace" status. Yes Arroyo has been very consistant over his career he is still a #3 pitcher at best. Harang IMO isn't getting any kind of run support what so ever. I'd like to have both but money seems to be an issue with this team yet they outbid themselves for Taveras and broke the bank for CoCo. The organization comes out and says it has payroll flexability and uses 11 million on a aging oft injured Rolen and giving up two solid arms for him. I think the economy will be a factor in FA agin this yer and the Reds can probably get a decent servicable starter for nearly half of what one of Arroyo or Harang is being paid. Brad Penny and Rich Harden would be my targets.

REDREAD
08-12-2009, 09:20 PM
Agree completely. Arroyo is a better bet going forward IMO.

Given the state of the staff, I'd keep them both and shop Cordero in the off-season to save money.

My take as well. I'd rather have Arroyo for next year and trade Harang.

I'm not willing to trade either as a pure salary dump though. We've got to get fair talent in return, otherwise we are simply subtracting talent from the team.
I'm in no big hurry to see Lehr or a Fogg type replace Arroyo or Harang. We're already down a pitcher next year with Volquez out.

SMcGavin
08-12-2009, 09:24 PM
Agree completely. Arroyo is a better bet going forward IMO.

Given the state of the staff, I'd keep them both and shop Cordero in the off-season to save money.

I don't get this. Nobody has talked about it but Harang is pretty close to being the same dude we all loved in 06 and 07...

06: 3.89 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
07: 3.81 xFIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
09: 3.85 xFIP 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Harang is still a good pitcher, he's pretty durable, and I don't have a problem paying him well next year.

jojo
08-12-2009, 09:33 PM
I don't get this. Nobody has talked about it but Harang is pretty close to being the same dude we all loved in 06 and 07...

06: 3.89 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
07: 3.81 xFIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
09: 3.85 xFIP 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Harang is still a good pitcher, he's pretty durable, and I don't have a problem paying him well next year.

I agree completely. Harang is a significantly better pitcher than Arroyo IMHO. He's a tick below what he was but geesh you'd think he's fell off a cliff given the lack of love.

WMR
08-12-2009, 09:38 PM
Yeah I'm somewhat amazed that folks would prefer Arroyo over Harang. Don't really get that at all. Harang is a much better bet for 2010 than Arroyo, IMO.

kaldaniels
08-12-2009, 09:49 PM
My take as well. I'd rather have Arroyo for next year and trade Harang.

I'm not willing to trade either as a pure salary dump though. We've got to get fair talent in return, otherwise we are simply subtracting talent from the team.
I'm in no big hurry to see Lehr or a Fogg type replace Arroyo or Harang. We're already down a pitcher next year with Volquez out.

I could do it as a salary dump if there is a plan to spend the offset money saved in the offseason...same thing as a trade to me. I'm not saying I would do it, but 10-12 million could buy a lot this offseason if spent well.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2009, 10:09 PM
I don't get this. Nobody has talked about it but Harang is pretty close to being the same dude we all loved in 06 and 07...

06: 3.89 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
07: 3.81 xFIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
09: 3.85 xFIP 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Harang is still a good pitcher, he's pretty durable, and I don't have a problem paying him well next year.

I agree. I'd like to keep Harang unless the Reds get a great offer.

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 10:55 PM
I don't get this. Nobody has talked about it but Harang is pretty close to being the same dude we all loved in 06 and 07...

06: 3.89 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
07: 3.81 xFIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
09: 3.85 xFIP 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Harang is still a good pitcher, he's pretty durable, and I don't have a problem paying him well next year.

But the problem with that is that he has not been the same pitcher.

His xFIP has stayed the same, but his actual production has lessened.

If this was for half a season, I'd say it would even out. I might even say it after one season. But after nearly two full seasons? Especially when his defense actually got better this season?

I think you have to doubt how accurate xFIP is in this case, and wonder if Harang will ever produce like he did two years ago.

RedEye
08-12-2009, 11:04 PM
But the problem with that is that he has not been the same pitcher.

His xFIP has stayed the same, but his actual production has lessened.

If this was for half a season, I'd say it would even out. I might even say it after one season. But after nearly two full seasons? Especially when his defense actually got better this season?

I think you have to doubt how accurate xFIP is in this case, and wonder if Harang will ever produce like he did two years ago.

There are other variables, no? Like run support, for example?

TheNext44
08-12-2009, 11:11 PM
There are other variables, no? Like run support, for example?

I'm talking ERA and WHIP, not wins. His ERA and WHIP these last two years have been almost the same as Arroyo's.

If you believe in this stat, his quality starts are down too.

Highlifeman21
08-12-2009, 11:34 PM
Yeah I'm somewhat amazed that folks would prefer Arroyo over Harang. Don't really get that at all. Harang is a much better bet for 2010 than Arroyo, IMO.

Maybe the folks that prefer Arroyo over Harang are just looking for a variety of skillsets?

Harang pitches.

Arroyo plays guitar and sorta pitches.

2 is better than 1, or something like that.

WMR
08-12-2009, 11:44 PM
Maybe the folks that prefer Arroyo over Harang are just looking for a variety of skillsets?

Harang pitches.

Arroyo plays guitar and sorta pitches.

2 is better than 1, or something like that.

hell yeah, who else is going to cut such awesome promos for jtm burgers?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTQpX--WRz0

Highlifeman21
08-12-2009, 11:48 PM
I really hoped they wouldn't be together again, ever again...

WebScorpion
08-14-2009, 01:09 AM
Why is everyone convinced JJ Hardy is a good defensive SS? Every time I've seen him play he seems to have questionable range...I've always thought he was just part of the Brewers standard all offense-no defense philosophy which doesn't seem to achieve much more than a shot at a wild card berth each year. I don't mind giving up Arroyo and/or Harang, but Hardy would not be my target...I'd really try to get them out of my division, if not out of our league. Either one of them could contend for the Cy Young award if they faced our offense regularly. :rolleyes:

Ron Madden
08-14-2009, 03:13 AM
The overwhelming preference for Harang over Arroyo is weird to me.

At this point, I'd actually rather keep Arroyo. Although my preference remains to keep them both unless the return is real talent. I don't trust payflex.

I agree. Arroyo sure has his ups and downs and although I've always thought Harang had more upside it seems Arron has been going down hill. I hope I'm wrong but Harang does'nt look to me like the same pitcher that he was in 2007.

mth123
08-14-2009, 03:44 AM
I don't get this. Nobody has talked about it but Harang is pretty close to being the same dude we all loved in 06 and 07...

06: 3.89 xFIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
07: 3.81 xFIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
09: 3.85 xFIP 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Harang is still a good pitcher, he's pretty durable, and I don't have a problem paying him well next year.

I'm into Peripherals (though I don't really care for stats derived from them like FIP,X-FIP or Runs Created) and use this method for judging guys I don't see pitch all the time, but in the case of Arroyo and Harang, here is what I see. Arroyo is more likely to have a few uber-stinkers that really skew his stats as compared to his overall performance, but I also think he is more likely to pitch deep into games more often at this point while putting up a major league caliber performance that gives his team a chance to win well into the late innings (while mixing in more dominant performances as well) than Harang is. Over 32 starts, I think Arroyo is more likely to pitch more games that give his team a good chance to win than Harang will and for me its about winning games.

OTOH, if I were playing fantasy baseball and had to have one on my team, I'd take Harang since Arroyo's stinkers would be more harmful. The Reds don't play fantasy baseball though and its about winning games. I just happen to think Arroyo is more likely to make that happen more often over a season than Harang will at this point in both of their careers. Maybe its the pills

Given Volquez injury, this team probably needs to keep them both since I just don't see the Reds getting an upgrade for the money avaialable even if these contracts are purged somehow.

bucksfan2
08-14-2009, 10:00 AM
IMO in a team sense Arroyo has more value. I agree with mth, every once in a while he will throw up a stinker, but he puts up stretches where he is dominant.

Benihana
08-14-2009, 10:07 AM
You're missing the point-it's not that Stubbs impedes a playoff push. Taking on Arroyo in order to get Stubbs doesn't give any momentum to a playoff push.

BTW, Cain's season is colored by an early knee injury. Blindly looking at his numbers this season isn't that telling.

Do you still think Arroyo could contribute nothing to Milwaukee's playoff push?

I see over 50 innings of 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP that suggest otherwise.

jojo
08-14-2009, 10:10 AM
Do you still think Arroyo could contribute nothing to Milwaukee's playoff push?

I see over 50 innings of 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP that suggest otherwise.

Yes.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2009, 10:11 AM
Arroyo reminds me of Kyle Lohse when he was here.

1/3 of his starts are stinkers
1/3 of his starts are ok
1/3 of his starts are super

I never could understand the angst over Lohse on this board and thought he was worthy of a contract a couple years ago.

A rotation of....

Harang
Cueto
Lohse
Arroyo
Owings/Bailey/Lehr/insert AAAA starter

would be okay to me if the offense could score a few runs. Throw in a healthy Volquez and you might not have a true #1, but you have a boatload of #2's and 3's.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 10:22 AM
1/3 is very high for "super" Kyle Lohse starts as a Red. Lohse comps is more like Cueto--unhittable for 3-5 innings, but you knew a blow up was inevitable, it came fast, and it came hard.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2009, 10:32 AM
1/3 is very high for "super" Kyle Lohse starts as a Red. Lohse comps is more like Cueto--unhittable for 3-5 innings, but you knew a blow up was inevitable, it came fast, and it came hard.

I posted this two years ago after about 18 starts through the 2007 season. I think those 6 starts would qualify as "super". Of course, it all depends on what your definition of "super" is, but I think Kyle Lohse has been nearly unhittable when he's been "on" the past few years.


Not to turn this into a Kyle Lohse thread, but I think you can place his 18 starts into three categories.

1. Good - Great
2. Average
3. Bad - Really Bad

He's had 6 of each this year. I wouldn't categorize his six "average" starts as "bombing".

In all 6 "average" starts, he's gone at least 6 innings and given up on average 3 ER. I'll take that every day from a Kyle Lohse and those are his 6 "average" starts. What he does in his 6 "good-great" starts, not many other pitchers in the league have done this year.



1. (6) Good - Great starts:

48.1 IP
32 H
8 BB
33 K
.55 ERA
.83 WHIP
5-0 record

2. (6) Average starts:

39.2 IP
43 H
10 BB
20 K
4.31 ERA
1.34 WHIP
0-4 record

3. (6) Bad - Really Bad starts:

26.2 IP
51 H
11 BB
17 K
11.82 ERA
2.32 WHIP
0-6 record


Two-thirds of the time it's quality. I think you could name the same for many #3-5 starters around the league.

In 12 of his 18 starts:

88 IP
75 H
18 BB
53 K
2.35 ERA
1.06 WHIP
5-4 record

With 6 awful starts. Inconsistent? Perhaps. But, the inconsistency seems worth it for a 67% chance that you get the numbers above.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 10:59 AM
I posted this two years ago after about 18 starts through the 2007 season. I think those 6 starts would qualify as "super". Of course, it all depends on what your definition of "super" is, but I think Kyle Lohse has been nearly unhittable when he's been "on" the past few years.You said while Lohse was a Red. I didn't know you were cherry picking 18 starts.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2009, 11:04 AM
You said while Lohse was a Red. I didn't know you were cherry picking 18 starts.

Wasn't cherry-picking anything. I was just going from what I remember until I had the time to go back and check out his stuff in the rest of 2007 and the past two years in STL.

I'm pretty sure though that his stuff has been pretty consistent in that he's been inconsistent (3 personalities). :)

Anyway, the point of the post was just comparing Arroyo and Lohse and that I would take them both. I'm not getting in a whizzing war with ya over semantics anyway.