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View Full Version : Hal Says Reds Will Unload Cordero Before Arroyo or Harang



Benihana
08-13-2009, 01:24 AM
www.mlbtraderumors.com

Discuss.

Will M
08-13-2009, 01:35 AM
IF someone would take Cordero we could use his salary better. Add an arm or two for the pen cheaply (ala Rhodes) and use the rest of the saved money elsewhere (LF, SS, another SP, 2nd catcher,etc)

IMO the team should keep both Harang & Arroyo and ADD another good starter if they want to win in 2010.

Homer Bailey
08-13-2009, 01:40 AM
IF someone would take Cordero we could use his salary better. Add an arm or two for the pen cheaply (ala Rhodes) and use the rest of the saved money elsewhere (LF, SS, another SP, 2nd catcher,etc)

IMO the team should keep both Harang & Arroyo and ADD another good starter if they want to win in 2010.

Sure we could, but will we? We're talking about the same front office that gave WT $6.25M.

I'd be all for shipping out Cordero if I knew the FO would spend the money wisely, but we have no indication that that will happen.

WMR
08-13-2009, 01:42 AM
IF someone would take Cordero we could use his salary better. Add an arm or two for the pen cheaply (ala Rhodes) and use the rest of the saved money elsewhere (LF, SS, another SP, 2nd catcher,etc)

IMO the team should keep both Harang & Arroyo and ADD another good starter if they want to win in 2010.

I think shipping Arroyo out as well and replacing him in the rotation via FA would be a prudent decision if the Reds want to win in 2010.

TheNext44
08-13-2009, 01:45 AM
While Cordero has done all that has been asked of him, his contract just doesn't make sense for this team. $12M this year and $12 next year can be better spent. And I really think that either Bailey or Owings would make a great closer.

Of teams contending, the Cubs and Phillies need a closer the most. The Yankees and Red Sox could use a setup guy, and the Tigers needs another bullpen arm.

I'm not sure where each team sits in terms of payroll, but hopefully, one of them would claim him.

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 01:47 AM
I'd rather give Arroyo away, get at least something for Harang (but won't mind him around if Bronson goes) and try to get some thing decent for Cordero.

Tom Servo
08-13-2009, 01:49 AM
Arroyo should be the one we should most be shopping. Harang and Cordero should be shopped but we should get back at least legitmate one good prospect/piece for them if not a bit more. But Arroyo should be at the top of the 'get rid of' list.

TheNext44
08-13-2009, 01:52 AM
I believe the Reds agree that they would rather give away Arroyo, but it takes two to tango.

Johnny Footstool
08-13-2009, 01:55 AM
Cordero's presence makes the entire bullpen better. Yes, $12 million is a lot, but we've been down the "let's find cheap bullpen arms" road before, with little success.

Will M
08-13-2009, 01:57 AM
I think shipping Arroyo out as well and replacing him in the rotation via FA would be a prudent decision if the Reds want to win in 2010.

i actually agree but what if the good free agents turn us down? a guy like Lackey can go anywhere. he has already made a lot of money. even if the Reds offer him the best deal money wise he may turn it down to play for a proven winner. he is really the only sure thing on the market.

the best of the rest...
Bedard - hurt
Webb - hurt
Pettite - signs with NYY or retires
Washburn - one good year since 2005
Myers - 2009 ERA+ of 93 and career ERA+ of 100
Doug Davis - i have never been impressed with his stuff but does have a history of getting the job done. is 33 years old
Harden - having an off year (for him with ERA+ of 102) and history of injuries

so the targets are Lackey, Harden & Davis (???). all 3 could go elsewhere even if we pursue them. that would then leave us with...
Cueto
Harang
Bailey
Owings
Maloney or Wood
Volquez could come back but I wouldn't be counting on him for 2010

that is one sorry rotation.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 02:01 AM
No Weathers, no Stewart or Roenicke, Hal says no Cordero.

It's ok the ninth inning isn't that important.

VR
08-13-2009, 02:02 AM
Iím not talking about the chicken wings. Iím talking about the chicks. The waitresses were beyond description.

I thought Hal was blind? :lol:

KoryMac5
08-13-2009, 02:03 AM
I thought the Yankees at one time had shown some interest in Cordero. Rivera will be 40 in the offseason and is in the last year of a deal that pays him 15 million dollars this season. I could see the Yankees bringing Mo back for another year but something tells me he will want more than a one year deal with the Yanks. Cordero would fit nicely in New York but the Yankees have gone the free agancy route lately for their big players. Can only see a deal happening if the Reds take on a portion of CoCo's salary.

reds44
08-13-2009, 02:04 AM
Man only needs one eye.

WMR
08-13-2009, 02:06 AM
I thought the Yankees at one time had shown some interest in Cordero. Rivera will be 40 in the offseason and is in the last year of a deal that pays him 15 million dollars this season. I could see the Yankees bringing Mo back for another year but something tells me he will want more than a one year deal with the Yanks. Cordero would fit nicely in New York but the Yankees have gone the free agancy route lately for their big players. Can only see a deal happening if the Reds take on a portion of CoCo's salary.

The Reds leadership should be publicly flogged if they pay one dime of Cordero's salary in any trade, especially with the freaking U.S. Trust err NY Yankees.

TheNext44
08-13-2009, 02:09 AM
No Weathers, no Stewart or Roenicke, Hal says no Cordero.

It's ok the ninth inning isn't that important.

It sounds silly, but it really isn't.

The vast majority of blown saves occur in innings other than the 9th. Granted that's because most teams have a closer, but the point is that whether you blow the game in the 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th innings, your team is now losing. The only difference with the 9th is that you have less or zero chances to come back.

Remember in 2007, the Reds had very little problems in the 9th, they had major problems getting to the 9th with a lead. Basically you need a solid bullpen. The guy who pitches the 9th really is not that 4 times more important than the guy pitching the 7th. He just gets paid 4 times as much.

mth123
08-13-2009, 04:13 AM
I think this is the right strategy. If the Reds are trying to save money to fill holes elsewhere dealing Cordero and replacing him on the cheap is more likely to be successful than dealing Harang or Arroyo. I think any money saved on Harang or Arroyo would simply be spent on replacing Harang and Arroyo and not be left over to fill other needs. Its possible that you can argue Harang and Arroyo should be replaced/upgraded and I wouldn't argue much, but I have a harder time believing that the team can get anyone any better for any less or even the same money. Dealing Harang or Arroyo likely leaves the team with a rotation filled with Cueto/Lehr/Bailey/Owings and probably some less than stellar vet who makes as much money for a longer commitment and is even worse than Harang or Arroyo. Barry Zito or Dontrelle Willis anyone? IIRC, those 2 seem to have gotten the most support as ways to upgrade according to the masses that last 2 years.

I deal Cordero and replace him with a cheaper option while plowing the difference into a position player to help improve the starting 8. Of course, having Roenicke and Stewart around would make this strategy much more likley to be successful, but they were squandered to upgrade a position that could have been upgraded without paying through the nose.

*BaseClogger*
08-13-2009, 04:15 AM
No Weathers, no Stewart or Roenicke, Hal says no Cordero.

It's ok the ninth inning isn't that important.

Who cares? They got Scott Rolen!

Besides, even if they still some young, stud relievers they wouldn't be ready to handle the ninth inning emotionally anyways... :rolleyes:

WMR
08-13-2009, 04:16 AM
Who cares? They got Scott Rolen!

Besides, even if they still some young, stud relievers they wouldn't be ready to handle the ninth inning emotionally anyways... :rolleyes:

Your sig is going to eventually devour RedsZone. :D

*BaseClogger*
08-13-2009, 04:21 AM
Your sig is going to eventually devour RedsZone. :D

I'm going to need contributions from all of RZ so that we can make the best Cardinals design any baseball message board has ever seen! :D

Ltlabner
08-13-2009, 07:48 AM
So they're going to unload the guy who's performance is actually commiserate with his performance?

HokieRed
08-13-2009, 08:15 AM
What's Ryan Franklin make?

redsmetz
08-13-2009, 08:35 AM
What's Ryan Franklin make?

2.5M this year, 2.75M next with a 250K buyout.

RedsManRick
08-13-2009, 08:39 AM
But if they trade Cordero, who will provide veteran leadership in the bullpen next year? Think of the children!!!

LoganBuck
08-13-2009, 08:43 AM
No Weathers, no Stewart or Roenicke, Hal says no Cordero.

It's ok the ninth inning isn't that important.

I agree with this. A month ago I would not have. Talk about an ugly scenario.

Ltlabner
08-13-2009, 08:43 AM
2.5M this year, 2.75M next with a 250K buyout.

And what is Dave Duncan's contract? That has to be added on top of Franklin's to get Ryan's true cost. No Duncan means no Franklin IMO.

Strikes Out Looking
08-13-2009, 08:46 AM
But if they trade Cordero, who will provide veteran leadership in the bullpen next year? Think of the children!!!

Arthur Rhodes will still be there. I have always been a proponent of openers first, closers last, meaning you settle on five decent starters and then worry about your closer. The Reds have four starters right now for next year that I could count on -- Arroyo, Harang, Cueto, and hopefully Owings. I'm still not sure on Bailey. With that being said, I don't trade Arroyo and Harang without a solid plan to pick up the 400 innings they are going to throw in 2010.

Because the Reds have poor mouthed themselves to lousy attendance (yes I blame ownership for its own problems as a self defeating prophecy), they feel they have to shed some salary and thus, Cordero is the likely target. Unless they can get similar quality/quantity for one of the expensive starters, Cordero is the likely target to go.

15fan
08-13-2009, 09:12 AM
Hal also told us that Delino Deshields was going to play 2b for the Reds in the late 90s, and that there was no way the Reds were going to trade the Mariners for Junior.

Roy Tucker
08-13-2009, 09:26 AM
I'm all for dumping salary if it means the Reds will then spend that money intelligently on quality players.

But I'm not going to hold my breath. I see the salaries dumped and then roster churn on used-to-be prospects and dumpster diving. I don't see anyone coming up to build a team around and the Reds can't buy quality players. So, besides making sure the team turns a profit, what's the plan?

traderumor
08-13-2009, 09:54 AM
I would be fine with dealing Cordero for legit players and pay the rest of this year if that's what it took. But, I also wouldn't mind a strict salary dump while he is probably at his peak performance in the contract. Either way, at this stage, that might be the smartest move if they are going to move one of our best veteran arms at the major league level, probably making more sense than moving Harang.

As for the bullpen, I could live with Rhodes and Massett in the late innings of the current bullpen arms.

princeton
08-13-2009, 09:56 AM
if it's fixed, break it :thumbup:

vaticanplum
08-13-2009, 09:57 AM
While Cordero has done all that has been asked of him, his contract just doesn't make sense for this team. $12M this year and $12 next year can be better spent. And I really think that either Bailey or Owings would make a great closer.

Correction: $12 million/year for Cordero WOULD have been a great investment if the Reds had been smart with the rest of their money. I agree with you to a point about Bailey and Owings, and there are other potential irons in the fire too, but excellent, PROVEN closers are not easy to come by and, as Johnny pointed out, shore up the entire bullpen (and by extension the starting staff as well). While I think the actual closer role is somewhat overrated, it's a reality in baseball and I think a true quality closer is generally a good investment.

But I'm not averse to the Reds trading him for the right return (a huge caveat there with this team, obviously) simply because diamonds are somewhat wasted on a heifer cow. ie., I have so little faith that the Reds can use the rest of their money to build a good team around him that yes, the $12 million a year is probably better spent for them elsewhere. Which is a big disappointment to me, but it is the reality of the situation and this team.

jojo
08-13-2009, 09:57 AM
But if they trade Cordero, who will provide veteran leadership in the bullpen next year? Think of the children!!!

Mike Lincoln is veteranny.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 10:03 AM
if it's fixed, break it :thumbup:Gotta have foresight and guts to move a guy before he rots on the vine. I would love to see another team take on the risk of the rest of Cordero's contract at this point. Yes, the bullpen is currently the team's strength, but you cannot ignore the volitale nature of relievers and the size of the linchpin's contract, esp. when the linchpin could turn from solid steel to a coathanger in one offseason.

A bullpen is a fluid system because of the volatility of relievers, so the Reds would be better off figuring out the attributes of the bullpen that has made this year's one of the best in recent memory and look for those types of arms rather than considering it is the particular reliever that is necessary for the success to be sustained. Never fall in love with a reliever.

jojo
08-13-2009, 10:12 AM
The Ms turned a mediocre minor league Putz into an elite closer and then flipped him for a guy who looks like he has a chance to be an elite center fielder during his prime.

The Mets greedily grabbed both Putz and Rodriguez to create an unstoppable pen on paper but it hasn't kept them in the race.

Relievers in general are the most fungible players on a roster.

Eric_the_Red
08-13-2009, 10:13 AM
I know it wouldn't realy make sense from the Yanks perspective, but I'd love to swap Cordero for Hughes.

wally post
08-13-2009, 10:14 AM
It sounds silly, but it really isn't.

The vast majority of blown saves occur in innings other than the 9th. Granted that's because most teams have a closer, but the point is that whether you blow the game in the 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th innings, your team is now losing. The only difference with the 9th is that you have less or zero chances to come back.

Remember in 2007, the Reds had very little problems in the 9th, they had major problems getting to the 9th with a lead. Basically you need a solid bullpen. The guy who pitches the 9th really is not that 4 times more important than the guy pitching the 7th. He just gets paid 4 times as much.

Right now, with our offense, we blow saves in the third inning when the other teams scores its third run!

I think other teams see us as the Kansas City Athletics: "Let's see how much we can get from those lowly Reds". I also would not be surprised that many players agents tell the Reds FO their client does not want to come to Cincy to play for the Reds (ballpark, management and probably other reasons such as snippy announcers in a very small market)
So I am not so sure we can purchase free agents that are any better than what we have. This to me equates out to mean Walt should try to trade Cordero now, or during the off-season (Phillies have a great farm system for ex.) and receive young players that would never play for us down the road as free agents.

I also have to go against most here and say we should not only keep Harang, we should keep Arroyo - again, because we can't purchase better.
Maybe after we contend more regularly high quality free agents will sign in Cincinnati - we'll see if either of those things can happen.

Jpup
08-13-2009, 10:24 AM
I know it wouldn't realy make sense from the Yanks perspective, but I'd love to swap Cordero for Hughes.

Hughes has been lights out in the pen. No way the Yankees trade him for anything right now.

BTW, the Reds need to keep Cordero. He's actually a good player on a team that has way too few.

vaticanplum
08-13-2009, 10:26 AM
The Ms turned a mediocre minor league Putz into an elite closer and then flipped him for a guy who looks like he has a chance to be an elite center fielder during his prime.

This is ideal, obviously. But it happens once in a lifetime, and chances that the Reds would be able to make this happen are even smaller than that.

edabbs44
08-13-2009, 10:26 AM
Cordero's presence makes the entire bullpen better. Yes, $12 million is a lot, but we've been down the "let's find cheap bullpen arms" road before, with little success.

We haven't had someone like Walt doing the finding, however.

edabbs44
08-13-2009, 10:28 AM
Arroyo should be the one we should most be shopping. Harang and Cordero should be shopped but we should get back at least legitmate one good prospect/piece for them if not a bit more. But Arroyo should be at the top of the 'get rid of' list.

Harang cleared waivers, so he most likely won't fetch much unless Bob gets the fork and knife out again.

princeton
08-13-2009, 10:29 AM
We haven't had someone like Walt doing the finding, however.

2015, baby

edabbs44
08-13-2009, 10:32 AM
2015, baby

As long as we are on the right track.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 10:36 AM
I think this is the right strategy. If the Reds are trying to save money to fill holes elsewhere dealing Cordero and replacing him on the cheap is more likely to be successful than dealing Harang or Arroyo. I think any money saved on Harang or Arroyo would simply be spent on replacing Harang and Arroyo and not be left over to fill other needs. Its possible that you can argue Harang and Arroyo should be replaced/upgraded and I wouldn't argue much, but I have a harder time believing that the team can get anyone any better for any less or even the same money. Dealing Harang or Arroyo likely leaves the team with a rotation filled with Cueto/Lehr/Bailey/Owings and probably some less than stellar vet who makes as much money for a longer commitment and is even worse than Harang or Arroyo. Barry Zito or Dontrelle Willis anyone? IIRC, those 2 seem to have gotten the most support as ways to upgrade according to the masses that last 2 years.

I deal Cordero and replace him with a cheaper option while plowing the difference into a position player to help improve the starting 8. Of course, having Roenicke and Stewart around would make this strategy much more likley to be successful, but they were squandered to upgrade a position that could have been upgraded without paying through the nose.

:clap: Well said.

Homer Bailey
08-13-2009, 10:36 AM
I'm all for dumping salary if it means the Reds will then spend that money intelligently on quality players.

But I'm not going to hold my breath. I see the salaries dumped and then roster churn on used-to-be prospects and dumpster diving. I don't see anyone coming up to build a team around and the Reds can't buy quality players. So, besides making sure the team turns a profit, what's the plan?

:clap:

TRF
08-13-2009, 10:37 AM
Moving Cordero would have made sense 2 months ago.

You know, when the Reds had some bullpen depth. When Roenicke looked like he was going to be the next closer. Or when Stewart was a possibility despite dominating as a starter.

Moving Cordero now means the Reds are banking on Burton's health or Massett's ability to close out games. And I really don't see Rhodes coming back next year, the depth is drying up at Louisville, Bray it seems will never be healthy. Viola should get a look in September, and yes, he'll likely be one of the LH's in the pen with DRH. With Homer looking more and more like the disaster he's been, and yes, I was in favor of handing him the 5th starters position in 2010, the pitching smells like 2003 all over again.

HokieRed
08-13-2009, 10:42 AM
If the conversation's turned to Cordero, I suspect it is a matter of necessity rather than intention. I'd guess Arroyo and Harang have been shopped and shopped and no one will make an offer that isn't self-defeating for us: i.e. we have to pick up so much salary that there's hardly enough left to find adequate replacements even if they can be persuaded to come to Cincinnati (something I find it hard to believe a free agent pitcher with choices will do easily.) So who's left to move in order to get back enough salary to do something significant with: Cordero.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 10:47 AM
The Ms turned a mediocre minor league Putz into an elite closer and then flipped him for a guy who looks like he has a chance to be an elite center fielder during his prime.

The Mets greedily grabbed both Putz and Rodriguez to create an unstoppable pen on paper but it hasn't kept them in the race.

Relievers in general are the most fungible players on a roster.

Wow, just wow. If you think JJ Putz was a mediocre minor leaguer, which organization have you been paying attention to all these years?

JJ Putz was a top-notch college pitcher with dominant stuff. He breezed through the minor leagues with an ERA under 4.00 at every level, and a career minor league ERA of 3.44 and K/9 of 7.1.

But his stuff was even more impressive than his results, as he was throwing 97 with ridiculous secondary stuff in college. His only hang-up is that, like a Bailey, Harang, or Cueto, he would occasionally have lapses in concentration. This caused the guy with first round stuff to slide to the 6th round. Either way, he had closer written all over him since our days at Michigan, and the Mariners did well to finally realize that. But to suggest that he was a run-of-the-mill, "mediocre minor leaguer" with pedestrian stuff is simply asinine.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Benihana
08-13-2009, 10:50 AM
If the conversation's turned to Cordero, I suspect it is a matter of necessity rather than intention. I'd guess Arroyo and Harang have been shopped and shopped and no one will make an offer that isn't self-defeating for us: i.e. we have to pick up so much salary that there's hardly enough left to find adequate replacements even if they can be persuaded to come to Cincinnati (something I find it hard to believe a free agent pitcher with choices will do easily.) So who's left to move in order to get back enough salary to do something significant with: Cordero.

Yep.

And because they'd actually be selling high (for once if it actually happens), hopefully they can get a return in talent as well.

The Cubs kind of need a closer, and they have money to spare...

Benihana
08-13-2009, 10:51 AM
Hal also told us that Delino Deshields was going to play 2b for the Reds in the late 90s, and that there was no way the Reds were going to trade the Mariners for Junior.

Homer Bailey traded for Jermaine Dye.

Oh wait...

Benihana
08-13-2009, 10:53 AM
Cordero's presence makes the entire bullpen better. Yes, $12 million is a lot, but we've been down the "let's find cheap bullpen arms" road before, with little success.

JimBo could do it. Krivsky couldn't.

Can Walt?

Homer Bailey
08-13-2009, 10:59 AM
Yep.

And because they'd actually be selling high (for once if it actually happens), hopefully they can get a return in talent as well.

The Cubs kind of need a closer, and they have money to spare...

I think the Cubs are on a bit of a salary freeze.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 11:06 AM
Homer Bailey traded for Jermaine Dye.

Oh wait...Hal also "scooped" Jim Beattie as the GM when Krivsky got the job :cool:

jojo
08-13-2009, 11:07 AM
Wow, just wow. If you think JJ Putz was a mediocre minor leaguer, which organization have you been paying attention to all these years?

JJ Putz was a top-notch college pitcher with dominant stuff. He breezed through the minor leagues with an ERA under 4.00 at every level, and a career minor league ERA of 3.44 and K/9 of 7.1.

But his stuff was even more impressive than his results, as he was throwing 97 with ridiculous secondary stuff in college. His only hang-up is that, like a Bailey, Harang, or Cueto, he would occasionally have lapses in concentration. This caused the guy with first round stuff to slide to the 6th round. Either way, he had closer written all over him since our days at Michigan, and the Mariners did well to finally realize that. But to suggest that he was a run-of-the-mill, "mediocre minor leaguer" with pedestrian stuff is simply asinine.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Bennie,

Basically he was a 6th round selection with one pitch (plus fastball) who predictably flamed out as a starter (i.e. he was never considered a serious prospect). He finally got a 3 inning sniff at the bigs at the tender age of 26 after the Ms converted him to a bullpen guy. He learned a splitter and essentially became the most dominant closer in the game for a couple of years before his injury-an outcome that frankly wouldn't have happened if he didn't change his repertoire while in his mid 20's.

REDREAD
08-13-2009, 11:10 AM
Cordero's presence makes the entire bullpen better. Yes, $12 million is a lot, but we've been down the "let's find cheap bullpen arms" road before, with little success.

That is a good point.

The entire problem is that simply dumping any of Harang/Arroyo/Cordero is not going to make the team better.

There is no inhouse replacement for any of them which isn't going to be a severe downturn.

Frankly I doubt the team could find a FA replacement with comparable performance for less money this winter. Those FAs are going to be snatched up by more desirable teams.

It's possible the payflex might be used to upgrade the positional players.

I'm not a huge fan of giving any of those 3 pitchers away. If we get value, then fine, but none of those three guys are easily replacable, IMO. Both Harang and Arroyo have a decent shot of bouncing back (assuming they are healthy).

Highlifeman21
08-13-2009, 11:14 AM
No Weathers, no Stewart or Roenicke, Hal says no Cordero.

It's ok the ninth inning isn't that important.

Need an offense to make the 9th inning important.

There's a reason the Reds are near last, if not dead last in save opportunities.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 11:14 AM
I'm starting to think that the FO thinks very much like RZ--don't do anything because we can't win with 'em, we can't win without 'em.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 11:22 AM
I'm starting to think that the FO thinks very much like RZ--don't do anything because we can't win with 'em, we can't win without 'em.

Well said.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 11:22 AM
I would be fine with dealing Cordero for legit players and pay the rest of this year if that's what it took. But, I also wouldn't mind a strict salary dump while he is probably at his peak performance in the contract. Either way, at this stage, that might be the smartest move if they are going to move one of our best veteran arms at the major league level, probably making more sense than moving Harang.

As for the bullpen, I could live with Rhodes and Massett in the late innings of the current bullpen arms.

I think you are sorely underestimating the Reds bullpen problems if Cordero is traded. The only way they can do it is to make other acquisitions.

Arthur Rhodes can do anything. I'm sure he can close or remain in the current eighth inning spot for the rest of this year, and next year, and be effective.

Massett's performance numbers have slipped. Since the All Star game he has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He surely can be part of the Reds' bullpen. But as a reliable eighth or ninth innings man? Very questionable.

Herrera is the second lefty in the pen. I really like the guy. He could potentially be a solid 7th inning man at this point. It is quite risky to subject him to the day in and day out rigors of an eighth or ninth inning reliever.

Burton looked pretty good last night after the bases loaded walk. Maybe he's coming back. Maybe he isn't. Only time will tell.

I'm a big believer in strong bullpens. One of my pet peeves with the Reds in recent years has been too few multi-innings relievers, too much dependence on one inning slots. Having said that, the pen since Cordero arrived has been very good. I attribute this to Coco and the ability to use other good relievers in set up roles.

If the Reds shed Coco, be prepared for lots of late inning meltdowns and agonizing losses. With Coco and Weathers gone -- and with Roenicke and Stewart off the table -- the Red would need some serious relief acquisitions.

15fan
08-13-2009, 11:26 AM
Gotta have foresight and guts to move a guy before he rots on the vine.

So you liked the Tony Perez trade then, eh?

REDREAD
08-13-2009, 11:27 AM
I'm starting to think that the FO thinks very much like RZ--don't do anything because we can't win with 'em, we can't win without 'em.

Any front office that thought like RZ would not be good.

Can't trade any good prospects, just the C prospects.. and you darn well better get impact players back.

Can't trade any vets..
OR trade all the vets, get down to a 10 million payroll and then spend 60 million on FA with payflex.

I'm not against trading anyone, as long as we get value back.

Some version of Arroyo-Hardy would work for me, for instance, but I'm not going to give Arroyo to any contender for pure salary relief.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 11:30 AM
Any front office that thought like RZ would not be good.

Can't trade any good prospects, just the C prospects.. and you darn well better get impact players back.

Can't trade any vets..
OR trade all the vets, get down to a 10 million payroll and then spend 60 million on FA with payflex.

I'm not against trading anyone, as long as we get value back.

Some version of Arroyo-Hardy would work for me, for instance, but I'm not going to give Arroyo to any contender for pure salary relief.

The funny thing is if there were ever an offseason for that, wouldn't this be it? Of course it's a HUGE gamble both with the economy and the CBA coming up next year, but I'd love to see the Reds take that kind of risk. If they're right, they'll never get more veterans locked up for cheaper. For instance, think about how good Lackey would look on a 3-year, $30MM deal if the economy (and salaries) rebound?

Of course there is a less than zero chance of the Reds actually doing this.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 11:30 AM
Need an offense to make the 9th inning important.

There's a reason the Reds are near last, if not dead last in save opportunities.

This is small market talk. It's a losing attitude.

It says -- we are the Reds. We must have a major weakness. I'd rather have a good offense. Let the bullpen be the major weakness.

I disagree.

The way to handle the situation is to keep the good bullpen and build up the offense. It shouldn't be "either or."

I've lived through late innings melt downs caused by weak bullpens. It is no fun. It kills a team because wins turn into losses repeatedly. The argument that it's "too soon" for the Reds to have a top closer is IMO nonsense.

If the Reds are unwilling to pay for BOTH a bullpen and an offense they are hopeless. They may be. But there's no need to trash one area to build up the other -- there shouldn't be anyway.

RedLegSuperStar
08-13-2009, 11:56 AM
I doubt the Reds organization shared that information or anyone close to the organization for that matter and it is his opinion period. I got to believe though that the Reds have to be open minded when it comes to the 3 pitchers who make huge portion of the payroll. Whether every pitcher was on the DL or not that shouldn't hinder the Reds from moving Arroyo or Harang. If anyone saw the way Free Agency went last year the Reds could use that money to net possible 2 middle of the rotation starters for the price of Bronson. Example Brad Penny and Rich Harden would probably net right around what Arroyo will make in 2010 based on last years market. You deal Coco and Arroyo and you could maybe add a Bedard (at a discount due to injuries?); Webb won't be a Free Agent, and a Bobby Abreu? Boy 5 Million was too much to pay for that guy..

Thing is is that the organization needs to either add to the payroll or go the way of the economy and sell on some of these high contracts and get a comparable alternative at a fraction of the cost and use the extra money to get a power bat and any other pieces.

REDREAD
08-13-2009, 11:59 AM
The funny thing is if there were ever an offseason for that, wouldn't this be it? Of course it's a HUGE gamble both with the economy and the CBA coming up next year, but I'd love to see the Reds take that kind of risk. If they're right, they'll never get more veterans locked up for cheaper. For instance, think about how good Lackey would look on a 3-year, $30MM deal if the economy (and salaries) rebound?

Of course there is a less than zero chance of the Reds actually doing this.


Yep, it's a nice thing to dream about, and it works well in computer games.
I often totally firesale my team for prospects and then load up on FA. Usually win the WS the second season and every season thereafter (Always make the playoffs).

Sadly, in reality, Lackey is not likely to come to a team that just burned itself down unless that team greatly overpays.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 12:21 PM
Yep, it's a nice thing to dream about, and it works well in computer games.
I often totally firesale my team for prospects and then load up on FA. Usually win the WS the second season and every season thereafter (Always make the playoffs).

Sadly, in reality, Lackey is not likely to come to a team that just burned itself down unless that team greatly overpays.

Very true.

Overpaying in the current market may just be the best time to overpay :thumbup:

jojo
08-13-2009, 12:26 PM
Even in this economy, 3 yr/$30M for Lackey probably wouldn't be considered a dramatic overpay.

Will M
08-13-2009, 12:26 PM
FYI - here are the relief pitchers who are free agents this winter...

Danys Baez BAL
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Chad Bradford BAL
Kiko Calero FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL
John Grabow PIT
Kevin Gregg CHC
LaTroy Hawkins HOU
Matt Herges CLE
Trevor Hoffman MIL
Jason Isringhausen TB
Brandon Lyon DET
Ron Mahay KC
Trever Miller STL
Darren Oliver LAA
Troy Percival TB
Fernando Rodney DET
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
Rafael Soriano ATL
Jose Valverde HOU
Billy Wagner NYM
Jamie Walker BAL

traderumor
08-13-2009, 12:32 PM
I think you are sorely underestimating the Reds bullpen problems if Cordero is traded. The only way they can do it is to make other acquisitions.

Arthur Rhodes can do anything. I'm sure he can close or remain in the current eighth inning spot for the rest of this year, and next year, and be effective.

Massett's performance numbers have slipped. Since the All Star game he has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He surely can be part of the Reds' bullpen. But as a reliable eighth or ninth innings man? Very questionable.

Herrera is the second lefty in the pen. I really like the guy. He could potentially be a solid 7th inning man at this point. It is quite risky to subject him to the day in and day out rigors of an eighth or ninth inning reliever.

Burton looked pretty good last night after the bases loaded walk. Maybe he's coming back. Maybe he isn't. Only time will tell.

I'm a big believer in strong bullpens. One of my pet peeves with the Reds in recent years has been too few multi-innings relievers, too much dependence on one inning slots. Having said that, the pen since Cordero arrived has been very good. I attribute this to Coco and the ability to use other good relievers in set up roles.

If the Reds shed Coco, be prepared for lots of late inning meltdowns and agonizing losses. With Coco and Weathers gone -- and with Roenicke and Stewart off the table -- the Red would need some serious relief acquisitions.Not enough late inning leads to make that much of a concern right now. Dealing Cordero is a potential move that allows multiple holes to be filled. Of course, everyone adds the disclaimer "but I don't trust this FO to do it," but I would rather they try than the current stalemate in thinking they appear to be in.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 12:46 PM
Not enough late inning leads to make that much of a concern right now. Dealing Cordero is a potential move that allows multiple holes to be filled. Of course, everyone adds the disclaimer "but I don't trust this FO to do it," but I would rather they try than the current stalemate in thinking they appear to be in.

Trading players who ARE performing for salary relief to fill "multiple holes" is a small market, losing approach. The team constantly chases its tail. It develops strong areas and then weakens them for cash.

You want to trade Arroyo because he has a 5 ERA? Fine with me.

You want to trade Harang for losing 30 games the last two years? Fine with me.

Those are ways to get payflex if you can do it.

You want to trade Cordero who is almost an automatic closer?

Not fine. It weakens the team. It's a capitulation to the small market mentality.

The Reds don't have leads in the ninth inning? Add some offense.

The ninth inning is always a concern for every team. They currently have the guy to fill it. The bullpen is a strength. Weakening it for payflex to "fill multiple holes" is an admission that the team is incapable of building on strength. That it goes year to year sacrificing strong areas to build up weak areas, then to repeat the cycle next time around.

The only way the Reds should trade Cordero is if they think he is going to implode because he really isn't that good and has been lucky. That would be a valid reason, if true.

Otherwise, they will pay dearly if they let him go for "payflex" to fill "multiple holes."

We saw how they used the Griffey/Dunn payflex last year.

TRF
08-13-2009, 12:59 PM
FYI - here are the relief pitchers who are free agents this winter...

Danys Baez BAL
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Chad Bradford BAL
Kiko Calero FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL
John Grabow PIT
Kevin Gregg CHC
LaTroy Hawkins HOU
Matt Herges CLE
Trevor Hoffman MIL
Jason Isringhausen TB
Brandon Lyon DET
Ron Mahay KC
Trever Miller STL
Darren Oliver LAA
Troy Percival TB
Fernando Rodney DET
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
Rafael Soriano ATL
Jose Valverde HOU
Billy Wagner NYM
Jamie Walker BAL

Percival is done. Schoenweis might be. Hoffman will get snatched up by someone, might even stay with the Brewers.

The guy I'd go after is Kiko Calero, if for no ther reason than to type Kiko a hundred times next year. It'd be fitting that Walt signs a guy he once traded away.

jojo
08-13-2009, 01:06 PM
Percival is done. Schoenweis might be. Hoffman will get snatched up by someone, might even stay with the Brewers.

The guy I'd go after is Kiko Calero, if for no ther reason than to type Kiko a hundred times next year. It'd be fitting that Walt signs a guy he once traded away.

My personal favorites are Rafael Soriano and Chad Bradford.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 01:08 PM
My personal favorites are Rafael Soriano and Chad Bradford.

Of course you like Soriano.

In this particular case, you and I are actually in agreement. (Imagine that!)

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 01:12 PM
Any front office that thought like RZ would not be good.

Can't trade any good prospects, just the C prospects.. and you darn well better get impact players back.

Can't trade any vets..
OR trade all the vets, get down to a 10 million payroll and then spend 60 million on FA with payflex.

I'm not against trading anyone, as long as we get value back.

Some version of Arroyo-Hardy would work for me, for instance, but I'm not going to give Arroyo to any contender for pure salary relief.

1. No one says you can't trade away prospects. When you do though, get something that helps you short and long term. Don't whiz them away on a one-year rental unless the one year is going to mean something. Value pospects like most of the rest of baseball and don't trade your top youngsters unless its something special and even then, only if there is no time left or no other options. Most propects are fool's gold, but they're cheap gambles, their respective value is inflated compared to veterans and teams like the Reds have to have young guys (3 years or less) fill at least 1/2 or more of their roster to afford decent vets. If the Reds young guys don't come through, free agents mean nothing.

2. Have a plan and stick to it. The plan should win be to win and it should be as sustainable as possible.

3. Spend resources and evaluate talent wisely with as little waste of either as possible.

Yep pretty unreasonable. Besides, the Reds way has worked so well the last few years, we'd be so stupid to change.

savafan
08-13-2009, 01:23 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Cordero have a no trade clause?

osuceltic
08-13-2009, 01:24 PM
Most propects are fool's gold, but they're cheap gambles, ...



All they cost are time. In many cases, lots and lots of time.

Since that time, and all the seasons spent "gambling" are more important to me than Castellini's money, I don't think they're cheap at all.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 01:25 PM
All they cost are time. In many cases, lots and lots of time.

Since that time, and all the seasons spent "gambling" are more important to me than Castellini's money, I don't think they're cheap at all.

Yes but they provide oh so much hope. ;)

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 01:59 PM
All they cost are time. In many cases, lots and lots of time.

Since that time, and all the seasons spent "gambling" are more important to me than Castellini's money, I don't think they're cheap at all.

No, what is expensive is renting a veteran with clearly declining production and a growing home on the DL. Could that reverse, maybe, but sans peds, there is very little reason to expect it given Rolen's age. You certainly don't trade for such a player expecting a resurgence.

Some player's take time, others come along relativeley quickly. I have never said (or hinted) on this board that Stewart was a "top ten pitching prospect in baseball" or a "future Cy Young winner." I do say though that he has a very good chance to be a solid 8th/9th inning-type reliever (if not a closer).

I think he stood a decent chance of being a 4th or 5th starter for the Reds based on his numbers as a starter this year. I think he and Wood were the only decent starting propects at the top of the farm system and I liked Stewart a bit better than Wood because I thought his ground ball tendancies were well-suited for the GAB.

Is there a good chance that he would have failed as a starter. Sure, but I would have liked a chance to see more, like a season if starts at Louisville. At the very least, you still have a solid bullpen arm. If you're gonna deal a top prospect at least wait until they reach the top of their volume unless you're bowled over by a can't-miss, can't wait deal.

I would have been thrilled if Stewart and Roenicke were dealt for a young shortstop or young slugger that would help this team build over the next two or three seasons. Rolen, he does make the lineup better for next season, but is not enough of an up grade over Encarncacion for next season to make adifference and extending Rolen past next year for any real dollar amount would be about the only thing more stupid than trading value for him in the first place.

The real "fantasy baseball" players around here are those that think that this FO is going to make the intelligent decisions or spend the cash necessary to contend next year. Fact is that the Rolen deal is the kind of retrograde deal that is the very reason the Reds will stay perpetually 2-to-4 years from contention.

Contending for the Reds will be a crapshoot, even with an ideal alignment of the planets. The way this FO approaches talent evaluation management makes it even more of a longshot of longshots. Maybe I'm dreaming and my expectations are to high, but dreams and expectations are really all the fans of this once-proud franchise have left.

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 02:21 PM
I've seen a lot snide, smug, snarky remarks directed toward myself and others who think this was a bad deal and how you shouldn't fall in love with prospects.

I've spelled out exactly l why this is a very bad idea. I'd like to see less snark and more expectations. Why was this was a must-have deal that couldn't wait for the offseason. Not just "Rolen is a real baseball player and the Reds need real baseball player."

I want to see some projections. How Rolen is gonna healp this team going forward, how this club is gonna build a 2010 contender around him, how much money you would spend on the extension the Reds have said is coming. How about some numbers? How many HRs/RBis are you expecting? OPS? Maybe even just average number games played for the Reds over the next 2-4 years?

I'll even make it easy - over/under - 120 games a year? I say under and he's here three years..

Edd Roush
08-13-2009, 02:22 PM
You want to trade Harang for losing 30 games the last two years? Fine with me.



If you want to trade a guy because he lost 30 games and not realize that it was more due to lack of run support and not exceptionally poor performance, I may argue that you are/were a member of the Reds' front office.

Caveat Emperor
08-13-2009, 02:32 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Cordero have a no trade clause?

It expires after this year, and as long as he's being paid, why would he mind being shipped to a team in contention?

Caveat Emperor
08-13-2009, 02:35 PM
And for the record, Cordero is a great fit on a ballclub with a $120m payroll. If the Reds would up things to that point, I'd be all in favor of keeping him. He's a great talent and doing exactly what the Reds envisioned when they signed him -- anchoring a very good bullpen.

On a $80m team, he's an expensive luxury that will hamstring the team in bringing needed talent aboard.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 02:38 PM
And for the record, Cordero is a great fit on a ballclub with a $120m payroll. If the Reds would up things to that point, I'd be all in favor of keeping him. He's a great talent and doing exactly what the Reds envisioned when they signed him -- anchoring a very good bullpen.

On a $80m team, he's an expensive luxury that will hamstring the team in bringing needed talent aboard.

Yep. I'm still wondering though- if not the Cubs, which teams should/will have an interest in him?

How about the Phillies? Lidge has an ERA comparable to Homer's. Would they do JA Happ for Cordero and move recently unhappily displaced Moyer back into the rotation? That would be GREAT!

Caveat Emperor
08-13-2009, 02:43 PM
Yep. I'm still wondering though- if not the Cubs, which teams should/will have an interest in him?

You'd think New York would want to start thinking about life-after-Mariano, but with the way he's been pitching this year (amazing, what else is new), I guess there's no reason to believe that particular gravy train is going to end at 40.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 02:46 PM
You'd think New York would want to start thinking about life-after-Mariano, but with the way he's been pitching this year (amazing, what else is new), I guess there's no reason to believe that particular gravy train is going to end at 40.

I think Ruben Amaro is the guy Walt should be talking to.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 03:03 PM
Trading players who ARE performing for salary relief to fill "multiple holes" is a small market, losing approach. The team constantly chases its tail. It develops strong areas and then weakens them for cash.

You want to trade Arroyo because he has a 5 ERA? Fine with me.

You want to trade Harang for losing 30 games the last two years? Fine with me.

Those are ways to get payflex if you can do it.

You want to trade Cordero who is almost an automatic closer?

Not fine. It weakens the team. It's a capitulation to the small market mentality.

The Reds don't have leads in the ninth inning? Add some offense.

The ninth inning is always a concern for every team. They currently have the guy to fill it. The bullpen is a strength. Weakening it for payflex to "fill multiple holes" is an admission that the team is incapable of building on strength. That it goes year to year sacrificing strong areas to build up weak areas, then to repeat the cycle next time around.

The only way the Reds should trade Cordero is if they think he is going to implode because he really isn't that good and has been lucky. That would be a valid reason, if true.

Otherwise, they will pay dearly if they let him go for "payflex" to fill "multiple holes."

We saw how they used the Griffey/Dunn payflex last year.

To your last point first, that the FO might screw up a move made for the right reason means that you are screwed no matter what anyhow. That is the "we can't win with 'em, we can't win without 'em" conundrum I mentioned earlier, which apparently you seem caught up in as well.

Regarding your main point, that trading Cordero with the size of his contract as a primary motive is simply small market mentality is not the only reason a team might trade a good performer. At this stage, the Reds have to face the reality that their roster is full of holes and that an aging, expensive closer might be what is right with the team, but there is so little else right with the team, that his impact on the team financially does not make him a good investment. Cordero has done his job well and earned his keep, and he is certainly not the reason the Reds are a bad team, but keeping his contract around considering the state of the team has turned him into a contributor of what will continue to be a bad team without getting some help from multiple sources. While there can certainly be a "small-market" hamster wheel that some teams fall into that you described, making the "trade good production to fill multiple holes" is not a flawed strategy in itself, and honestly is not one the Reds have employed since the Bowden days. This is an example of an opportunity to reap "addition by subtraction."

The roster needs a makeover. All of the high priced talent should be on the block, even those currently producing.

lollipopcurve
08-13-2009, 03:12 PM
I think Ruben Amaro is the guy Walt should be talking to.

In theory, yes. But Philly has Lidge on a big contract through 2011 with an option on 2012. I don't think they'd take on another massive contract for the back of the bullpen. It's far more likely Amaro will be forced to look for more creative solutions if Lidge doesn't right himself.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 03:12 PM
To your last point first, that the FO might screw up a move made for the right reason means that you are screwed no matter what anyhow. That is the "we can't win with 'em, we can't win without 'em" conundrum I mentioned earlier, which apparently you seem caught up in as well.


The roster needs a makeover. All of the high priced talent should be on the block, even those currently producing.


If the Reds reasonably believe that Cordero can be a top closer for the remaining two years of his deal, I'd keep him. I think he has significant importance on the staff and I'm unwilling to trash the team.

If the Reds think he is an aging closer who has been lucky and that his performance will deteriorate soon then, of course, they should trade him for value.

Kc61
08-13-2009, 03:19 PM
If you want to trade a guy because he lost 30 games and not realize that it was more due to lack of run support and not exceptionally poor performance, I may argue that you are/were a member of the Reds' front office.


On the contrary, it is those who praise Harang's performance the last two years who are most like the Reds front office. It is those who only focus on excuses(lack of run support) and don't face the reality who need to read the stat charts more closely.

Harang has allowed 57 home runs in 2008 and in 3/4 of 2009. He has become a fly ball pitcher in a home run paradise. His ERA is about 4.6 for those two seasons.

Did he deserve 30 losses? No.
Is he a top pitcher right now? No.
Is he overpaid compared to performance? Yes.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 03:22 PM
If the Reds reasonably believe that Cordero can be a top closer for the remaining two years of his deal, I'd keep him. I think he has significant importance on the staff and I'm unwilling to trash the team.

If the Reds think he is an aging closer who has been lucky and that his performance will deteriorate soon then, of course, they should trade him for value.Not keeping him = trashing the team begs the question. I'm not liking the trashed team I see with him, so I can live without him and find cheaper options while I focus on finding several good players to balance my squad.

You also beg the question that his production to date has to be lucky if he is aging. He ages every day, and relievers are often toast overnight, its time to thank him for his high-end services and wish him well.

Benihana
08-13-2009, 03:25 PM
From Jayson Stark's column today...


• Life on the Lidge: The Phillies' biggest worry down the stretch isn't how to fit six starters into a five-man rotation. It's the continuing misadventures of closer Brad Lidge, whose strike-throwing percentage (just 60 percent) is at a career low. "There were times last year," said one scout, "that his stuff was so good, he could have told the hitters what was coming and they still couldn't have done anything with it."

But not anymore. Opposing batters have a .949 OPS against him -- nearly 400 points higher than last year. And it's all about total lack of command. "His delivery has really deteriorated, in just about every aspect," said another scout. "He was always a little bit of a drop-and-drive guy, but he kept his front side closed, and he got it done. Now his front side is gone. He's falling way off toward first base. … And he has no fastball command at all, because his release point is actually behind him now." The Phillies need to rebuild both Lidge's delivery and his confidence, and they're running out of time.

• A near Mis-Happ: When they made the Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies were leaning heavily toward moving J.A. Happ into their bullpen instead of Moyer. But one scout who has seen a lot of Happ says "that would have been a big mistake."

"I know there are people who think his record is some kind of fluke," the scout said. "I don't think it is. I see good hitters telling me he's good by how much they swing and miss. I'm talking about guys who can hit a little bit."

Man, this Cordero-for-Happ swap just makes too much sense to happen. The Reds could even send some money Philly's way and it would still be a good deal, especially with Volquez out.

Rather than just sending cash as a deadweight loss, I'd get creative: Offer to take Brett Myers, who just finished his third rehab outing, back in a deal. Myers is being groomed as a reliever, but may not be healthy enough to pitch (effectively, at least for a team in the playoffs) the rest of this season. And he's a FA after this season.

So why offer to take him back? It beats sending cash and getting nothing in return. Even if he can't pitch for the Reds this season, who knows- he might enjoy his time getting to know teammates in Cincy and it could give the Reds an inside track on signing him to an incentive-laden deal in the offseason. If all goes well, he could be the new closer for a lot cheaper than Cordero. A longshot for sure, but it's better than giving up cash and getting nothing in return, especially if it allows the Reds to get better talent (Happ). The remainder of the money owed to Myers this year would help absorb at least a little of the salary Philly would be taking on with Cordero.

Johnny Footstool
08-13-2009, 03:54 PM
And for the record, Cordero is a great fit on a ballclub with a $120m payroll. If the Reds would up things to that point, I'd be all in favor of keeping him. He's a great talent and doing exactly what the Reds envisioned when they signed him -- anchoring a very good bullpen.

On a $80m team, he's an expensive luxury that will hamstring the team in bringing needed talent aboard.

One guy makes $12 million, and the rest of the bullpen makes very little. So for $15 million or so, you've got an effective bullpen.

Remove the guy at the top of the pecking order, and suddenly you're blowing saves in the 7th and 8th inning because you have to use less-effective pitchers in those situations.

Tom Servo
08-13-2009, 04:06 PM
Out of boredom I checked out Jon Heyman's twitter and saw this as his last update:


yanks dont appear too interested in arroyo, harang after they cleared. its not arroyo's drug comments. its the $.

Edd Roush
08-13-2009, 04:10 PM
On the contrary, it is those who praise Harang's performance the last two years who are most like the Reds front office. It is those who only focus on excuses(lack of run support) and don't face the reality who need to read the stat charts more closely.

Harang has allowed 57 home runs in 2008 and in 3/4 of 2009. He has become a fly ball pitcher in a home run paradise. His ERA is about 4.6 for those two seasons.

Did he deserve 30 losses? No.
Is he a top pitcher right now? No.
Is he overpaid compared to performance? Yes.

I do not disagree that Harang's performance has diminished over the past couple of years. I am not trying to create excuses for Harang. Rather, I was reacting the opinion that Harang should be traded solely because he had 30 losses over the past two years.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 04:15 PM
One guy makes $12 million, and the rest of the bullpen makes very little. So for $15 million or so, you've got an effective bullpen.

Remove the guy at the top of the pecking order, and suddenly you're blowing saves in the 7th and 8th inning because you have to use less-effective pitchers in those situations.Of course, that assumes that what is currently on the roster is the only option for the top of the pecking order. I've been told over and over again how there are more cost-effective arms to fill the top of the pecking order, so l'm going on that assumption. It does look like there are some decent arms available in free agency, and this season is done, so what happens in the 7th and 8th innings will be one for the history books, but not anything I care alot about if this roster is going to be fixed.

traderumor
08-13-2009, 04:16 PM
yanks dont appear too interested in arroyo, harang after they cleared. its not arroyo's drug comments. its the $. those frugal Yankees.

REDREAD
08-13-2009, 04:25 PM
All they cost are time. In many cases, lots and lots of time.

Since that time, and all the seasons spent "gambling" are more important to me than Castellini's money, I don't think they're cheap at all.

Yep, statistically the team that gets the veteran in a prospects for vet swap wins the majority of the time. Occasionally there is a Bagwell-Anderson trade, but not very often.

Imagine if we traded Homer when he was one of the top pitching prospects in the game. The board would've had a stroke, but we would've probably gotten very good value for him.. It wouldn't take a genius GM back then to flip Homer for something worth a lot more than Homer is worth now.

Personally, I am running out of time waiting for the prospect calvary to arrive. Isn't ten years of waiting long enough? It's just a cycle that never ends.. By the time the farm produces a Ceuto and Votto, Dunn and Harang are too expensive to keep...

Benihana
08-13-2009, 05:33 PM
FanGraphs' "Valuing the Harangatang"

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/valuing-the-harangutan

GAC
08-13-2009, 06:07 PM
Cordero's presence makes the entire bullpen better. Yes, $12 million is a lot, but we've been down the "let's find cheap bullpen arms" road before, with little success.

Yep. If they could just unload one of the starters in Arroyo or Harang...because remember, we ain't gonna have EV next year..... that would go a long way to helping.

But as it has already been mentioned.... can you trust this FO to then not only spend the money; but do so wisely?

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 06:25 PM
The problem Jocketty has in moving Harang and Arroyo is another illustration of why I dislike the Rolen deal so much. I look at Harang and Rolen as fairly equal talent-wise. I'd give Harang the edge though because of the premium placed on pitching, Aaron's projectable health and the chance that he could improve with the right adjustments.

Jocketty was all to eger to jump in an add young value for a player who was in little demand. He gave-in and bailed a GM of questionable savvy like Riccardi out.

I'd take the pitching-equivalent of EdE (someone I could non-tender at the end of the year if need -be) and two prospects the level of Roenicke and Stewart for Harang. Trouble is, there doesn't seem to be anyone out there that seems ready to pony-up even a single-A suspect to help Wally out. If Walt made a great deal for Roeln, he shold be able at least match it for Aaron.

Will M
08-13-2009, 07:12 PM
the Angels make sense as a trading partner. they invested $$$ in Fuentes who has been just ok. their pen is pretty weak. adding CoCo for the playoffs makes a lot of sense for them. plus they have deep pockets.

Coco for M.Izturis and a prospect?

Izturis is on the bench in LA but would be the starting SS for the Reds this year and next.

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 07:42 PM
the Angels make sense as a trading partner. they invested $$$ in Fuentes who has been just ok. their pen is pretty weak. adding CoCo for the playoffs makes a lot of sense for them. plus they have deep pockets.

Coco for M.Izturis and a prospect?

Izturis is on the bench in LA but would be the starting SS for the Reds this year and next.

The Phillies get:

Francisco Cordero
Bronson Arroyo (we pay the rest of this season's mortgage)

The Angels get:

Brad Lidge
Aaron Harang (we pay the rest of this season's mortgage)

The Reds get:

Macier Izturus
Jose Arrendondo
JA Happ
Michael Taylor

Now there's Fantasy Baseball thinking for you! :thumbup:

jojo
08-13-2009, 08:10 PM
The Phillies get:shafted

:cool:

corkedbat
08-13-2009, 08:20 PM
:cool:

That's their problem, this is my Fantasy league. Let them get thier own. :D

VR
08-13-2009, 11:28 PM
I hope Jocketty is on the phone tomorrow shopping BA.

2.48 earnie over his last 7 starts (50.2 innings), with a WHIP of 1.02.


Looks like a fantastic pickup for the stretch run :fineprint

tripleaaaron
08-14-2009, 03:42 AM
Wouldn't trading Cordero just make the Rolen trade even worse somehow? I mean trading the top two closer prospects in your organization for an aging 3B and then realizing that trading your closer is the only way to give you flexibility? Wow we could have had said flexibility to begin with AND still been able to trade Cordero with proper potential replacements to give us further flexibility to really make a splash. But we lack foresight. We have no plan, no direction. Whether we trade Cordero or not we really have no real room for improvement.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 08:26 AM
Wouldn't trading Cordero just make the Rolen trade even worse somehow? I mean trading the top two closer prospects in your organization for an aging 3B and then realizing that trading your closer is the only way to give you flexibility? Wow we could have had said flexibility to begin with AND still been able to trade Cordero with proper potential replacements to give us further flexibility to really make a splash. But we lack foresight. We have no plan, no direction. Whether we trade Cordero or not we really have no real room for improvement.While there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, there is even to a greater degree no such thing as a "closer prospect."

Ltlabner
08-14-2009, 08:55 AM
Wouldn't trading Cordero just make the Rolen trade even worse somehow?

I tend to agree. The only way to make the Rolen deal make sense is to have him be part of several big moves towards winning a building team. Getting him and then surrounding him with lotto tickets and has-beens is the definition of futility.

If they trade Cordero and get some hotshot mlb-ready prospects and someone in the current bullpen steps up to be the closer then it might make sense to deal him. Otherwise, it's just another step towards Rolen + nobodies + stiffs = Lost Decade Continues.

RedLegSuperStar
08-14-2009, 09:04 AM
Carlos Fisher, Jared Burton, & Logan Ondrusek couldd all fill the closer roll.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 09:22 AM
It's nice to see that those who didn't like the Rolen trade are managing to morph every thought about the Reds into a chance to voice that criticism :(

bucksfan2
08-14-2009, 09:26 AM
I tend to agree. The only way to make the Rolen deal make sense is to have him be part of several big moves towards winning a building team. Getting him and then surrounding him with lotto tickets and has-beens is the definition of futility.

If they trade Cordero and get some hotshot mlb-ready prospects and someone in the current bullpen steps up to be the closer then it might make sense to deal him. Otherwise, it's just another step towards Rolen + nobodies + stiffs = Lost Decade Continues.

It makes you wonder where contract values are headed this off season. Its not going to help the union that the Indians stand to lose $20M and the Rangers look in tough financial peril as well. I think you will see another year with lackluster FA contracts.

IMO for around $15M next year the Reds could get a Rich Harden and Orlando Cabrera. They can get quite a bit of value for the dollar in this off season. IMO the Rolen move makes a ton of sense if Bob will increase payroll by ~ $15M.

jojo
08-14-2009, 09:26 AM
I tend to agree. The only way to make the Rolen deal make sense is to have him be part of several big moves towards winning a building team. Getting him and then surrounding him with lotto tickets and has-beens is the definition of futility.

If they trade Cordero and get some hotshot mlb-ready prospects and someone in the current bullpen steps up to be the closer then it might make sense to deal him. Otherwise, it's just another step towards Rolen + nobodies + stiffs = Lost Decade Continues.

I think their most likely return would be a major league role player and salary relief.

Randy Winn was traded for Lou Piniella. Maybe Jocketty can find a diamond in the rough that perhaps might be under appreciated by also undervalued.

Ltlabner
08-14-2009, 09:28 AM
It's nice to see that those who didn't like the Rolen trade are managing to morph every thought about the Reds into a chance to voice that criticism :(

Perhaps you should post a sticky thread about which topics we are allowed to discuss?

Building a team is an organic process that includes the sum of it's parts. There's nothing out of bounds about making the point about how one trades impact will be lessened if a different corresponding move is made.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 10:08 AM
Perhaps you should post a sticky thread about which topics we are allowed to discuss?

Building a team is an organic process that includes the sum of it's parts. There's nothing out of bounds about making the point about how one trades impact will be lessened if a different corresponding move is made.Not what I'm saying. What I AM saying is....I see the Rolen trade quickly heading to "The Trade" territory, which is what I understand to be the differentiation way back when between the Sun Deck and ORG. Why become a one trick pony?

Highlifeman21
08-14-2009, 11:12 AM
Perhaps you should post a sticky thread about which topics we are allowed to discuss?

Building a team is an organic process that includes the sum of it's parts. There's nothing out of bounds about making the point about how one trades impact will be lessened if a different corresponding move is made.

In that sticky, you'll see the names of Dunn, Taveras, not being able to call Gonzalez "SeaBass", perhaps strikeouts in general, Dusty Baker's lineup(s), and I'm sure the Rolen for Cy Young trade is not far behind.

You've touched upon a great point that while a GM's job should be viewed in the big picture, it's the micro/small picture moves that really shape and influence the big picture.

Picking up Rolen says "we want to compete in 2010, we just don't have the good to compete in 2009", while moving Cordero before Harang or GNC suggests a couple things:

1. Picking up Rolen was a bad idea if now we're dismantling our improved bullpen, and hoping to use in-house options as a band-aid to cover the hole created by moving Cordero.
2. If we're moving Cordero to create payflex, we sure as heck better use that payflex to address some of the serious offensive holes we have on this club. If moving Cordero to create payflex for the sake of payflex is the goal, then I'm just at a loss for words. The sad part is I could see it happen.
3. It's testing the waters to move our 3 big pitching contracts (Cordero, Harang, GNC). Maybe it's a domino effect that once you move Cordero, it's easier to move one of the other two, if not both. Not sure I believe this, but the Reds can't lie to themselves and think they are competitive with those 3 tying up so much of the team's limited resources.

So, it'll be interesting to see how Walt's micro moves impact his macro picture between now and Opening Day 2010.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 11:19 AM
In that sticky, you'll see the names of Dunn, Taveras, not being able to call Gonzalez "SeaBass", perhaps strikeouts in general, Dusty Baker's lineup(s), and I'm sure the Rolen for Cy Young trade is not far behind.

That is because dead horse beating should be and is frowned on at ORG. But, feel free to bring up the Rolen trade in every thread on RZ. It will make the place so enjoyable.

Ltlabner
08-14-2009, 11:37 AM
Not what I'm saying. What I AM saying is....I see the Rolen trade quickly heading to "The Trade" territory, which is what I understand to be the differentiation way back when between the Sun Deck and ORG. Why become a one trick pony?

The Rolen discussion is not even in the same galaxy as The Trade let alone ballpark.

And you completley missed the point of the original post(s) you griped about. It/they weren't complaining about the Rolen deal, they were talking about the Rolen move in light of a hypothetical trade of Cordero and how one trade can effect the impact of another.

TRF
08-14-2009, 11:38 AM
Arroyo's doing that second half thing again. His last 7 starts dating back to July 10:


JULY 10 - 9IP 0ER
JULY 17 - 7IP 0ER
JULY 22 - 5.1IP 5ER (Only bump in the road)
AUG 2 - 7IP 3ER
AUG 8 - 7IP 3ER
AUG 13 - 9IP 0ER

He finished strong in the second half last year too. BA's value to the Reds in terms of a trade will be higher next year if he keeps this up. A team in contention, and I maintain that team won't be the Reds, would only be on the hook for the last half of his 2010 salary right? Or is he signed beyond 2010?

He'll have two straight years of a strong second half finish. That won't escape the attention of his agent or GM's needing a pitcher to put them over the top.

Benihana
08-14-2009, 11:42 AM
Arroyo's doing that second half thing again. His last 7 starts dating back to July 10:


JULY 10 - 9IP 0ER
JULY 17 - 7IP 0ER
JULY 22 - 5.1IP 5ER (Only bump in the road)
AUG 2 - 7IP 3ER
AUG 8 - 7IP 3ER
AUG 13 - 9IP 0ER

He finished strong in the second half last year too. BA's value to the Reds in terms of a trade will be higher next year if he keeps this up. A team in contention, and I maintain that team won't be the Reds, would only be on the hook for the last half of his 2010 salary right? Or is he signed beyond 2010?

He'll have two straight years of a strong second half finish. That won't escape the attention of his agent or GM's needing a pitcher to put them over the top.

Why would it matter for his agent? I thought Bronson didn't want to be traded?

TRF
08-14-2009, 11:44 AM
Why would it matter for his agent? I thought Bronson didn't want to be traded?

pheh. Doesn't matter what he says he wants. All positive numbers matter to agents. If he's dealt, his agent will be promoting the good, dismissing the bad while exploring the possibility of being extended by whoever dealt for him.

Benihana
08-14-2009, 11:47 AM
pheh. Doesn't matter what he says he wants. All positive numbers matter to agents. If he's dealt, his agent will be promoting the good, dismissing the bad while exploring the possibility of being extended by whoever dealt for him.

I think his agent should be counting his lucky stars Bronson has the deal he currently does. I'd think an extension at this point is out of the question.

traderumor
08-14-2009, 11:48 AM
The Rolen discussion is not even in the same galaxy as The Trade let alone ballpark.

And you completley missed the point of the original post(s) you griped about. It/they weren't complaining about the Rolen deal, they were talking about the Rolen move in light of a hypothetical trade of Cordero and how one trade can effect the impact of another.Obviously, that isn't the only place that I've been seeing "oh by the way, have you heard I hate the Rolen trade." I said my piece, by all means, add to the shallowness.

TRF
08-14-2009, 12:37 PM
I think his agent should be counting his lucky stars Bronson has the deal he currently does. I'd think an extension at this point is out of the question.

Not if he's traded at next year's trade deadline.

TheNext44
08-14-2009, 02:03 PM
I tend to agree. The only way to make the Rolen deal make sense is to have him be part of several big moves towards winning a building team. Getting him and then surrounding him with lotto tickets and has-beens is the definition of futility.

If they trade Cordero and get some hotshot mlb-ready prospects and someone in the current bullpen steps up to be the closer then it might make sense to deal him. Otherwise, it's just another step towards Rolen + nobodies + stiffs = Lost Decade Continues.

This is a valid point, but there is a strong argument to be made that trading Cordero makes the Reds stronger in 2010.

They should be able to fill his role pretty cheaply, personally I would look at moving Owings and/or Bailey to the closer role, but Massett, Burton, or Fisher should be decent enough closers.

Then they can use the $15M they save on filling holes, either by trading for guys or signing FA's.

So if you believe that Rolen's trade only makes sense if the Reds make more more moves, I think that is more likely to happen if Cordero is traded.

Johnny Footstool
08-14-2009, 02:12 PM
Then they can use the $15M they save on filling holes, either by trading for guys or signing FA's.

Same story every year. Unfortunately, those FAs end up being Alex Gonzalez and his ilk.

BRM
08-14-2009, 02:14 PM
Same story every year. Unfortunately, those FAs end up being Alex Gonzalez and his ilk.

Yep. Payflex doesn't mean much when it's spent on garbage.

gonelong
08-14-2009, 02:25 PM
The Reds MO has been Payflex > Talent. When Payflex = Talent, then we'll be going somewhere.

GL

Falls City Beer
08-14-2009, 04:46 PM
The Reds MO has been Payflex > Talent. When Payflex = Talent, then we'll be going somewhere.

GL

If the Reds could get as much punch out of their FA signings as they do out of their cheap DFA pickups et al (Balentien, Gomes, Hamilton, Nix), they'd be crappin' in tall cotton. But they spend decent change on garbage which precludes moves for top dollar FA (which will never be the Reds' main source of acquisitions). In odd ways, it's almost as though it's not entirely a talent-blindness problem on the part of the FO; they can and often do find talent. Both Jocketty and Wayne can definitely do so.

What both men have been crippled by so far (moreso than the goofy signings of Taveras and Gonzalez) has been not knuckling down and paying for the Porcellos and Lincecums that vault teams to the stratosphere.

It's this organization's allergy to drafting and developing that has kept this team in the garbage, not nearly so much the stupid money spent on the MLB product.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2009, 04:51 PM
nm

TRF
08-14-2009, 06:15 PM
If the Reds could get as much punch out of their FA signings as they do out of their cheap DFA pickups et al (Balentien, Gomes, Hamilton, Nix), they'd be crappin' in tall cotton. But they spend decent change on garbage which precludes moves for top dollar FA (which will never be the Reds' main source of acquisitions). In odd ways, it's almost as though it's not entirely a talent-blindness problem on the part of the FO; they can and often do find talent. Both Jocketty and Wayne can definitely do so.

What both men have been crippled by so far (moreso than the goofy signings of Taveras and Gonzalez) has been not knuckling down and paying for the Porcellos and Lincecums that vault teams to the stratosphere.

It's this organization's allergy to drafting and developing that has kept this team in the garbage, not nearly so much the stupid money spent on the MLB product.

seconded for freaking truth.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2009, 06:23 PM
If the Reds could get as much punch out of their FA signings as they do out of their cheap DFA pickups et al (Balentien, Gomes, Hamilton, Nix), they'd be crappin' in tall cotton. But they spend decent change on garbage which precludes moves for top dollar FA (which will never be the Reds' main source of acquisitions). In odd ways, it's almost as though it's not entirely a talent-blindness problem on the part of the FO; they can and often do find talent. Both Jocketty and Wayne can definitely do so.

What both men have been crippled by so far (moreso than the goofy signings of Taveras and Gonzalez) has been not knuckling down and paying for the Porcellos and Lincecums that vault teams to the stratosphere.

It's this organization's allergy to drafting and developing that has kept this team in the garbage, not nearly so much the stupid money spent on the MLB product.

The way it's going, the Reds are going to have their shot at paying top $$ in the 2010 draft.

edabbs44
08-14-2009, 06:23 PM
If the Reds could get as much punch out of their FA signings as they do out of their cheap DFA pickups et al (Balentien, Gomes, Hamilton, Nix), they'd be crappin' in tall cotton. But they spend decent change on garbage which precludes moves for top dollar FA (which will never be the Reds' main source of acquisitions). In odd ways, it's almost as though it's not entirely a talent-blindness problem on the part of the FO; they can and often do find talent. Both Jocketty and Wayne can definitely do so.

What both men have been crippled by so far (moreso than the goofy signings of Taveras and Gonzalez) has been not knuckling down and paying for the Porcellos and Lincecums that vault teams to the stratosphere.

It's this organization's allergy to drafting and developing that has kept this team in the garbage, not nearly so much the stupid money spent on the MLB product.

Seriously...though the last two years have at least seen some somewhat tough signs being drafted. Not like the HS catchers who will sign for slot almost before they are picked.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2009, 06:24 PM
The way it's going, the Reds are going to have their shot at paying top $$ in the 2010 draft.

They've had their shot at top pitching talent. They continue to spurn it.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2009, 06:27 PM
They've had their shot at top pitching talent. They continue to spurn it.

There is a very realistic chance that next year the Reds could have a shot at Strasburg.

jojo
08-14-2009, 06:44 PM
It's always easier to peck at the periphery because your failures aren't counted against you and your wins always look genius after the fact.

That said, the above isn't meant to diminish the skill involved with identifying the right periphery to peck.

Brutus
08-14-2009, 07:25 PM
There is a very realistic chance that next year the Reds could have a shot at Strasburg.

Only 4.5 games right now from being in the driver's seat to land him, unless of course the Nationals pull off a miracle this weekend.

Caveat Emperor
08-14-2009, 08:03 PM
They've had their shot at top pitching talent. They continue to spurn it.

I really get the feeling, though, that neither Lincecum nor Porcello would be half the pitchers they are if they'd been drafted by the Reds.

You know the minor league "instruction" is laughably bad when the biggest step forward that the top pitching prospect in the organization (Homer Bailey) took came as a result of his journeyman teammate teaching him a new pitch.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2009, 08:09 PM
I really get the feeling, though, that neither Lincecum nor Porcello would be half the pitchers they are if they'd been drafted by the Reds.

You know the minor league "instruction" is laughably bad when the biggest step forward that the top pitching prospect in the organization (Homer Bailey) took came as a result of his journeyman teammate teaching him a new pitch.

Lincecum was a finished product on draft day; on Porcello you might be right.

mth123
08-14-2009, 08:20 PM
Carlos Fisher, Jared Burton, & Logan Ondrusek couldd all fill the closer roll.

No they can't. And I'm Fisher's biggest fan.

princeton
08-14-2009, 11:03 PM
No they can't. And I'm Fisher's biggest fan.

sounds like you're not

mth123
08-15-2009, 03:31 AM
sounds like you're not

Fisher will be marvelous pitching the 2 inning stints and I suspect he'll be one of the 85+ inning guys who holds a staff together, but he won't be dominant enough to be a shut down type for the 9th.

Stewart and Roenicke had that potential. Masset might have it. The old Burton maybe, but the current version needs to be fixed. Ondrusek is more like Fisher IMO. If the Reds deal Cordero, I'd look to a vet with some stuff who can't hack it as a starter anymore. John Smoltz might be worth a try if he's desperate enough to continue his career to give Cincy a try for a reasonable sum of cash.

Benihana
08-18-2009, 01:39 PM
From Rosenthal today...


The Yankees inquired on Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, but lost interest when the Reds refused to send money along.

KoryMac5
08-18-2009, 01:42 PM
I would also imagine the Yankees didn't want to send any good prospects our way either. If Harang continues to pitch well and he has the last 3 or 4 starts I would imagine interest in him could heat up with teams like Boston or Texas jumping in trying to secure the wild card.

Benihana
08-18-2009, 01:46 PM
I would also imagine the Yankees didn't want to send any good prospects our way either. If Harang continues to pitch well and he has the last 3 or 4 starts I would imagine interest in him could heat up with teams like Boston or Texas jumping in trying to secure the wild card.

There are only 13 days left before the final trading deadline.

I don't think Harang or Arroyo will be moved. Cordero might.

I'm actually glad the Reds didn't sell the bottom on Harang.

savafan
08-18-2009, 01:49 PM
The Yankees should really be ashamed of themselves for asking for money from the Cincinnati Reds

Benihana
08-18-2009, 02:01 PM
The Yankees should really be ashamed of themselves for asking for money from the Cincinnati Reds

No harm in asking. The Yankees got money from the Pirates a few weeks ago. The Red Sox got money from the Reds last week for Gonzo.

Chip R
08-18-2009, 02:13 PM
The Yankees should really be ashamed of themselves for asking for money from the Cincinnati Reds

Ditto.

Big Klu
08-18-2009, 02:17 PM
There are only 13 days left before the final trading deadline.

I don't think Harang or Arroyo will be moved. Cordero might.

I'm actually glad the Reds didn't sell the bottom on Harang.

Not exactly true. A club can trade for a player after September 1, but he would not be eligible for postseason play. He could, however, play in the final month and help that club get into the postseason.

Benihana
08-18-2009, 02:19 PM
Not exactly true. A club can trade for a player after September 1, but he would not be eligible for postseason play. He could, however, play in the final month and help that club get into the postseason.

That's not going to happen.

Highlifeman21
08-18-2009, 02:29 PM
Sending Arroyo to the Yankees with a duffel bag full 'o cash isn't a bad option, IMO.

traderumor
08-18-2009, 03:10 PM
The Yankees should really be ashamed of themselves for asking for money from the Cincinnati RedsI'm sure they will feel bad when the Reds quit dipping into their money machine through revenue sharing :)