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nate
08-18-2009, 05:31 PM
From Jnho FYA (http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3abc00848c-df66-4771-901c-a69d0f0d759b&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com):


The Reds have gotten beaten up a lot lately for not having a long-tem plan. That happens when you trade away young pitching for a 34-year-old third baseman like Scott Rolen at the trade deadline, even though you’re 10 games out of first place at the time.

The Reds have since traded away veterans David Weathers and Alex Gonzalez.

I put The Plan question to Walt Jocketty Tuesday.

“The plan is . . . we have a plan, let’s put at that. . . The plan is to try and develop quality young players and build a foundation for the organization for the long-term, not just the short-term.

“We’re also trying to be fair to our fans and be competitive as much as we could this year. I think we were until we were hit with a lot of injuries in the middle of July. We didn’t have the depth to compensate for it.

“The plan is to continue to sign quality young talent and develop it to the major league level. That’s simplifying it. But that’s the plan.”

Do you think you can compete next year?

“I don’t know,” Jocketty said. “I don’t know what the competition will be next year. I would hope we would were competing this year until we got hurt.”

dougdirt
08-18-2009, 05:32 PM
That leaves me feeling no better. Sounds like they still don't have a real plan other than praying things fall together perfectly.

Sea Ray
08-18-2009, 05:34 PM
They fell out of it long before mid July.

How does continuing to play .279 OBP Willy T fit into that plan?

Benihana
08-18-2009, 05:38 PM
:barf:

edabbs44
08-18-2009, 05:38 PM
Sounds scarily like Wayne-speak...and he sounds frustrated.

I did like hearing this:


“The plan is to continue to sign quality young talent and develop it to the major league level. That’s simplifying it. But that’s the plan.”

But trying to do both just doesn't work. Burn it if you have to but, just for once, go 100% in one direction.

corkedbat
08-18-2009, 05:39 PM
Our plan is to plan to plan and once we have that plan planned we will stick to the plan - unless plans change.

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 05:41 PM
So Walt, does that mean we will stop seeing the over 30 crowd continue to trickle onto the Reds roster? Since you are using that word "young" again. It would seem to have some naturally assumed inferences that come from your implications. Walt, you even used the word "talent", is that defined by the talent that you brought to the Reds organization this year? Is that your definition of talent?

KoryMac5
08-18-2009, 05:49 PM
Patchwork until the kids are ready to come up and play. Unfortunately there aren't many impact kids ready to come up and make a significant impact. Be on the look out for that Gomes 3 year extension soon.

Kc61
08-18-2009, 05:51 PM
Be realistic. Walt is not going to turn this team into a tryout camp for 21 year old prospects. He isn't doing it.

Everyone says the fans will love it. Baloney. They will love it until the team is 15 games out on June 1. Then they will ignore the "kids" like they ignore the current team in September when the games are meaningless. Except the ignoring will start in June. Or maybe May in a bad year.

And to really start from scratch effectively, you have to get real, real bad. For quite awhile. You have to be in a position to draft the number 1-3 players every year for several. And then wait three years to see if they pan out. And hope they can anchor your team or you are back to point zero.

Walt is saying he is emphasizing youth but wants to add good veterans to the extent possible. That's realistic. Nothing wrong with it.

What is wrong is bad player choices and incorrect talent evaluation. That is a problem if it happens. The other problem is not spending a few extra bucks to get short term fixes that will help the team be reasonably competitive.

But the overall concept is the only way they can go, real world.

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 05:54 PM
Be realistic. Walt is not going to turn this team into a tryout camp for 21 year old prospects. He isn't doing it.

KC,
We all know or assume that he can't afford good veterans. The only way he can get those is by trades or bring in another Rolen or Tevaras type. We already saw what he could do during his rein last year, after the all-start break, into the offseason, and the spring training. One should be able to assume realisticaly, that Walt did the best that he and his stafff could, and without the resources to make it any different, it should be more of the same.

Brutus
08-18-2009, 05:55 PM
That leaves me feeling no better. Sounds like they still don't have a real plan other than praying things fall together perfectly.

Actually I thought it sounded like he knows exactly what he has in mind. He said he didn't really want to say what it is. He's not going to say "we want to upgrade this position, spend money on that position, etc."

I thought he seemed pretty defnitive that he at least has some methodology to what he wants to accomplish. Clearly, following through will be another issue. But it's a start.

paulrichjr
08-18-2009, 05:55 PM
How did this man do so well in St. Louis. He sounds completely clueless. Where's DanO when we need him? JK

wheels
08-18-2009, 05:59 PM
So... In other words, they aren't sure if they want to seriously rebuild, and they don't have the money to actually go for it.

We all knew it, and it sort of explains the Rolen deal.

If it seems like they don't know what they're doing, it's because they actually don't know what they're doing.

Occam's Razor or somesuch.

Good Gravy.

CarolinaRedleg
08-18-2009, 05:59 PM
How long have we been stuck on Phase 2?

http://quinnell.us/sspb/wiki/images/gnomes.png

wheels
08-18-2009, 06:02 PM
How long have we been stuck on Phase 2?

http://quinnell.us/sspb/wiki/images/gnomes.png

Man....Do I love that one.:thumbup:

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 06:02 PM
How did this man do so well in St. Louis. He sounds completely clueless. Where's DanO when we need him? JK

He was at the right place at the right time in St. Louis. A time when certain key players became available, and St. Louis was significantly outspending the Reds, Milwaukee, Chicago, Houston and of course Pittsburgh. Under those conditions he was able to do very well. Look up the payrolls during his best years in comparison, and they probably had some prospects that they were able to trade off at that time. I think RedsMansRick did a research on that last year. He was fortunate to have TL and Duncan also. He doesn't have the luxury of good managers, pitching coaches, hitting instructors, or the monies here to work with. Besides that over the past decade prices have gone up quite a bit for even mediocre talent.

Kc61
08-18-2009, 06:04 PM
KC,
We all know or assume that he can't afford good veterans. The only way he can get those is by trades or bring in another Rolen or Tevaras type. We already saw what he could do during his rein last year, after the all-start break, into the offseason, and the spring training. One should be able to assume that Walt did the best that he and his stafff could, and without the resources to make it any different, it should be more of the same.

FWIW, I think the team can be pretty good next year with a little more spending, even on short term contracts. Add Scutaro and Dye, on short deals. Be smart about which kids and role players to keep next year. And continue to build up the farm and promote worthy prospects.

My problem is with the short term approach. If you want to be reasonably competitive, don't leave the team with an offense like this year's.

This doesn't prevent a primary emphasis on kids, which is what Walt said. I have no problem with the long-term emphasis. I just think they are coming up short on the part about presenting something decent short term.

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 06:06 PM
FWIW, I think the team can be pretty good next year with a little more spending, even on short term contracts. Add Scutaro and Dye, on short deals. Be smart about which kids and role players to keep next year. And continue to build up the farm and promote worthy prospects.

My problem is with the short term approach. If you want to be reasonably competitive, don't leave the team with an offense like this year's.

This doesn't prevent a primary emphasis on kids, which is what Walt said. I have no problem with the long-term emphasis. I just think they are coming up short on the part about presented something decent short term.

Well, of course I hope that you are right and that I am wrong. We all have seen more than enough of ....well, you know.

Kc61
08-18-2009, 06:06 PM
Well, of course I hope that you are right and that I am wrong. We all have seen more than enough of ....well, you know.

Yeah, this year is brutal.

WVRedsFan
08-18-2009, 06:11 PM
Walt sounds irritable and frustrated, as I imagine any GM would be at this point. The Codero, Arroyo, and Harang contracts as well as those little ones that add up to big money (and you have to include Rolen) mean Daddy C cuts off the flow of money. He can't wheel and deal because the talent we have under those contracts are immovable.

I look for Walt to call it quits after the season and time marches on...

WVRedsFan
08-18-2009, 06:15 PM
He was at the right place at the right time in St. Louis. A time when certain key players became available, and St. Louis was significantly outspending the Reds, Milwaukee, Chicago, Houston and of course Pittsburgh. Under those conditions he was able to do very well. Look up the payrolls during his best years in comparison, and they probably had some prospects that they were able to trade off at that time. I think RedsMansRick did a research on that last year. He was fortunate to have TL and Duncan also. He doesn't have the luxury of good managers, pitching coaches, hitting instructors, or the monies here to work with. Besides that over the past decade prices have gone up quite a bit for even mediocre talent.

He also had players other teams wanted. We apparently do not. He also blew it when he refused to ship Homer for Dye. IMHO Homer will never be all that while Dye could have added some excitement for a year. The one time we could have received something for what we have and he backed down. That is, unless you consider the EdE trade for Rolen something, and it doesn't appear many in RZ think that (I do).

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 06:15 PM
How did this man do so well in St. Louis. He sounds completely clueless. Where's DanO when we need him? JK

See the graphs below in the link
http://www.forbes.com/sportsbusiness/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_St-Louis-Cardinals_333240.html

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 06:21 PM
He also had players other teams wanted. We apparently do not. He also blew it when he refused to ship Homer for Dye. IMHO Homer will never be all that while Dye could have added some excitement for a year. The one time we could have received something for what we have and he backed down. That is, unless you consider the EdE trade for Rolen something, and it doesn't appear many in RZ think that (I do).

Yes. Something behind the scenes has blocked him and contributed to him bringing in the players such as Nix, McDonald, Tevaras etc. Jocketty and his staff would certainly know talent better than those players would seem to represent. I think he would have, if he would have had the resources to do that. He doesn't strike me as a dumpster diving GM if he can avoid it.

HokieRed
08-18-2009, 06:22 PM
Sounds scarily like Wayne-speak...and he sounds frustrated.

I did like hearing this:



But trying to do both just doesn't work. Burn it if you have to but, just for once, go 100% in one direction.

I don't agree. You have to do two things at once actually. You have to do what's needed to be better in the long run, but the long run--in any sport--begins now. You have to play better tonight, then tomorrow night, and then the night after that. There is no way for a team to get better. If you keep thinking you're going to be better in 2011, you'll never learn to get better, and you'll be just as bad in 2011 as you are now. As to most of what Walt said, it's GM speak. He's not going to come out and say we're lousy at shortstop and catching and we have to do something about it. And besides the hitting coach apparently can't teach anybody to hit and the pitching coach has made no progress at all with our three best young arms. Even if he's thinking that stuff, he can't come out and say it. These guys have got to live with one another for 162 games.

Nasty_Boy
08-18-2009, 06:23 PM
The line about owing it to the fans to be competitive makes me think that Bob has been involved in the personell decisions. It's as if they feel that signing a veteran or two will make the fans think we're trying, while the rest of the team is found on the garbage pile. It's almost too delusional to come from Walt. It sounds like they want to win, but they don't know how.

CrackerJack
08-18-2009, 06:24 PM
If he threw something out there about an Oxcart or a Queen Bee I'd swear it was Mike Brown talking.

Chip R
08-18-2009, 06:33 PM
“The plan is . . . we have a plan, let’s put at that. . . The plan is to try and develop quality young players and build a foundation for the organization for the long-term, not just the short-term.

Really, Walt? I think that's the goal for every organization. Tell us something we don't know.


“We’re also trying to be fair to our fans and be competitive as much as we could this year. I think we were until we were hit with a lot of injuries in the middle of July. We didn’t have the depth to compensate for it.

And whose job was it to acquire that depth?


“The plan is to continue to sign quality young talent and develop it to the major league level. That’s simplifying it. But that’s the plan.”


:rolleyes:


Do you think you can compete next year?

“I don’t know,” Jocketty said. “I don’t know what the competition will be next year. I would hope we would were competing this year until we got hurt.”

Let's see here, what would the competition be? StL, MIL, CHI, PIT, HOU for starters. Then the rest of the NL.

Not so easy to operate without all that StL money, is it, Walt?

UKFlounder
08-18-2009, 06:38 PM
Da Plan! Da Plan!

http://digital-ai.com/junk/herve.jpg

westofyou
08-18-2009, 06:40 PM
Papllion had a "plan" too, this one makes me feel almost the exact same way.

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 06:44 PM
How did this man do so well in St. Louis. He sounds completely clueless. Where's DanO when we need him? JK

Think of building, planning, opportunity, being able to take advantage of player movement and resources. While moving forward and building upon that each year.
Back in the days when players were cheaper.
2000
Cincinnati Reds $ 44,217,500
St. Louis Cardinals $ 63,093,023
2001
Cincinnati Reds $ 48,784,000
St. Louis Cardinals $ 78,333,333
2002
Cincinnati Reds $ 45,050,390
St. Louis Cardinals $ 74,660,875
2003
Cincinnati Reds $ 59,355,667
St. Louis Cardinals $ 83,786,666
2004
Cincinnati Reds $ 46,615,250
St. Louis Cardinals $ 83,228,333
2005
Cincinnati Reds $ 61,892,583
St. Louis Cardinals $ 92,106,833
2006
Cincinnati Reds $ 60,909,519
St. Louis Cardinals $ 88,891,371

St. Louis opportunity advantage:
+18,875,523.00 opportunity advantage

+29,549,333.00 opportunity advantage

+29,610,485.00 opportunity advantage

+24,450,999.00 opportunity advantage

+36,613,083.00 opportunity advantage

+30,214,250.00 opportunity advantage

+27,981,852.00 opportunity advantage

+$197,295,525.00 total opportunity advantage

Remember players were cheaper throughout those years, and he could get more bang for his buck too.

Yes, we have covered that other organizations with smaller payrolls have done very well taking a different approach to building their product/teams on the field. But the question was how did Mr. Jocketty do so well before, and that implies that he isn’t doing as well now with this organization. Accumulate all those funds and see what the total difference is in what the Reds spent on talent vs Jocketty and his team while building and making improvements.

M2
08-18-2009, 06:47 PM
Not so easy to operate without all that StL money, is it, Walt?

I think Walt needs to sit Castellini down and explain St. Louis results are going to require St. Louis money. There's simply not enough young talent to provide the Reds with an inexpensive winning solution and the holes created by moving Harang, Arroyo or Cordero for the PayFlex would dwarf the potential gains of reinvesting the money. At best they'd shuffle their way back to status quo. More likely they'd blow the cash on a few shoddy mid-level signings while leaving a chasm where the expensive pitcher used to be.

Basically, either Castellini ventures the cash or it's time to do a massive rebuild.

Chip R
08-18-2009, 06:50 PM
Basically, either Castellini ventures the cash or it's time to do a massive rebuild.

Where's that cash going to come from? It sure isn't coming from butts in the seats like it did in StL.

Always Red
08-18-2009, 06:53 PM
I sense frustration on Walt's part.

Castellini apparently doesn't understand that without payroll Walt is...well, Wayne, except without the penchant for finding the diamond in the rough.

I wonder when we should start betting on when Walt resigns (because he really doesn't need this job), and the job falls to Bavasi, or Bonifay, or Quirk.

TheNext44
08-18-2009, 06:56 PM
The plan is to try and develop quality young players and build a foundation for the organization for the long-term, not just the short-term.

This might seem obvious, but it is something the Reds have not done in over a decade.

Every year, they "go for it" from the start of spring training, trying to build a team that can win the World Series. But they never had the talent to even come close, hence the Lost Decade.

Jocketty built a very strong foundation for the Cardinals which they used to be competitive for over a decade. But it took him three years to do it. He near the end of year two.

Maybe the Reds will be competitive in 2010, but Jocketty is not overly concerned with that. If they are, great, if not, continue to build that foundation for the future.

I have been saying this for months now, the plan is clear in my mind, and it looks like Jocketty is sticking to it.

As for the Rolen trade, fitting into that plan, I am convinced that Jocketty sees Rolen as the Reds 3B for years after 2010. He's from here, played for Jocketty before, and asked to be traded here. I see Rolen signing a very hometown friendly contract each year here in Cincinnati until he retires. And even with his skills on the decline, as long as he signs a fair contract, Rolen is a solid above average MLB player that the Reds need.

RedsManRick
08-18-2009, 07:12 PM
My concern is less about the plan than their ability to execute on that plan. For example:

- I don't mind adding a few mid-level veterans to a young team to help push them in to playoff competition. But when those veterans are Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Mike Lincoln, that's a problem.
- When you solve the problem of needing a big bat in LF by signing a CF who is a lesser version of a cheaper player you already have, that's a problem.
- When you have a 23 year old stud RF whose approach at the plate has worsened significantly since he first came up and your hitting coach can't fix it, that's a problem.
- When your ace's mechanics have been screwed up for over a year and your pitching coach can't fix it, that's a problem.
- When you spend $10M to hire a manager who has no clue how to think outside of a 50 year box and whose tendencies exacerbates your team's weakness, that's a problem.
- When you carry Darnell McDonald an your opening day roster while Johnny Gomes heads to AAA, that's a problem.
- When you're hopelessly out of the race but you continue to sit the young OF you acquired so that a future-less retread who won't be around next (hopefully) can play, that's a problem.
- When you take one of your best offensive prospects and shift him down the defensive spectrum unnecessarily despite a lack of better options where he was, you have a problem.
- When your good but not great closer takes up 15% of your payroll, that's a problem.

Building around young players is the plan of every single team in baseball except the Yankees. I don't need to know what the plan is in these oversimplified terms. I want to have some confidence that the people in charge are capable of executing it. Right now all I see is a bunch of problems that aren't being addressed.

Spring~Fields
08-18-2009, 07:14 PM
I think Walt needs to sit Castellini down and explain St. Louis results are going to require St. Louis money. There's simply not enough young talent to provide the Reds with an inexpensive winning solution and the holes created by moving Harang, Arroyo or Cordero for the PayFlex would dwarf the potential gains of reinvesting the money. At best they'd shuffle their way back to status quo. More likely they'd blow the cash on a few shoddy mid-level signings while leaving a chasm where the expensive used to be.

Basically, either Castellini ventures the cash or it's time to do a massive rebuild.

I think that you're right.

Wow you write that so much more succinctly than I ever could.

cincrazy
08-18-2009, 07:17 PM
This might seem obvious, but it is something the Reds have not done in over a decade.

Every year, they "go for it" from the start of spring training, trying to build a team that can win the World Series. But they never had the talent to even come close, hence the Lost Decade.

Jocketty built a very strong foundation for the Cardinals which they used to be competitive for over a decade. But it took him three years to do it. He near the end of year two.

Maybe the Reds will be competitive in 2010, but Jocketty is not overly concerned with that. If they are, great, if not, continue to build that foundation for the future.

I have been saying this for months now, the plan is clear in my mind, and it looks like Jocketty is sticking to it.

As for the Rolen trade, fitting into that plan, I am convinced that Jocketty sees Rolen as the Reds 3B for years after 2010. He's from here, played for Jocketty before, and asked to be traded here. I see Rolen signing a very hometown friendly contract each year here in Cincinnati until he retires. And even with his skills on the decline, as long as he signs a fair contract, Rolen is a solid above average MLB player that the Reds need.

You're one of my favorite posters here, and I can appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. I don't think it's ok to go into 2010 KNOWING you're not going to contend. This franchise has waited a decade for a winner, he should be doing everything in his power to make that happen next season. If not, why bother tuning in?

And to me, it doesn't sound like Walt knows what he's doing. To paraphrase, "Well, we know we're rebuilding, but we wanted to do enough going into this season to give the fans reason to think we can actually compete."

Willy Taveras for 2 years and $6 million plus is not a plan, nor is Mike Lincoln for 2 years, and so on and so forth.

Always Red
08-18-2009, 07:31 PM
“I don’t know,” Jocketty said. “I don’t know what the competition will be next year."

Are the Reds switching divisions or leagues?

Marc D
08-18-2009, 07:33 PM
I agree with KC61. Mixing in the occasional strategically placed veteran while constantly uping the talent flow from the minors is a sound plan in theory.

The problem is they absolutely suck at identifying, developing and effectively compensating talent. To paraphrase smiling Bob, if they could just do those things better we'd be right in it.

M2
08-18-2009, 07:35 PM
Where's that cash going to come from? It sure isn't coming from butts in the seats like it did in StL.

Don't know. Maybe there's nowhere for it to come from. In which case the answer is blow it apart and rebuild.

All I'm saying is this Reds team needs to spend closer to $90M if it wants to turn lip service about competing into reality. The team can get major offensive contributors for relative peanuts, but it's going to cost more total dollars to do it.


Building around young players is the plan of every single team in baseball except the Yankees. I don't need to know what the plan is in these oversimplified terms. I want to have some confidence that the people in charge are capable of executing it. Right now all I see is a bunch of problems that aren't being addressed.

That's 20/20 vision right there.


This might seem obvious, but it is something the Reds have not done in over a decade.

That's exactly what Jim Bowden, Dan O'Brien and Wayne Krivsky voiced and attempted. Back to RMR's post, execution is everything. Until the Reds can consistently execute it doesn't matter what the stated plan is.

RedsManRick
08-18-2009, 07:49 PM
You're one of my favorite posters here, and I can appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. I don't think it's ok to go into 2010 KNOWING you're not going to contend. This franchise has waited a decade for a winner, he should be doing everything in his power to make that happen next season. If not, why bother tuning in?

Because sometimes the reality is that you have to take one step back before you can take two steps forward. Not that I agree we need to "rebuild", but the Reds have been so terrified of putting a horrible product on the field for even a single season that it's prevented them from putting a good one on the field at any point in the last decade.

The bone needs to be reset -- but Reds management thinks it just needs a bigger icepack.

Boss-Hog
08-18-2009, 07:53 PM
I think Walt needs to sit Castellini down and explain St. Louis results are going to require St. Louis money. There's simply not enough young talent to provide the Reds with an inexpensive winning solution and the holes created by moving Harang, Arroyo or Cordero for the PayFlex would dwarf the potential gains of reinvesting the money. At best they'd shuffle their way back to status quo. More likely they'd blow the cash on a few shoddy mid-level signings while leaving a chasm where the expensive pitcher used to be.

Basically, either Castellini ventures the cash or it's time to do a massive rebuild.
Very well said.

Cooper
08-18-2009, 07:54 PM
I am generalizing in a major way when writing this post, but here goes....

whatever gains they have made in the last 2 years it has come through the use of using players who have played mlb baseball 1 or 2 years....

huge losses have occurred through the use of using mlb vets who have played 7 or more years...

In general terms they have had major difficulty in using funds to pick up a mlb vet who is worth anything.

The FO has great difficulty picking up solid vets...I have no faith at all that they can get it done that way. Maybe the FO can pick them at a .500 pace, but the manager continues to use them even when the player is killing the team....if they stay with Dusty as the manager, the FO MUST BE 100% Correct IN THE SIGNING OF MLB VETS. If the FO is anything less than that, Dusty will find the least effective player and play the heck out of him, thus cancelling out gains. LEARN TO WIRE AROUND YOUR STAFF WALT.

Reds4Life
08-18-2009, 07:56 PM
Sounds like the plan is: Spend as little as possible, and pray the fans keep spending money to see an inferior product.

Awesome.

RedsManRick
08-18-2009, 07:57 PM
Are the Reds switching divisions or leagues?

You know, I think that quote was the most telling of all. It's pretty easy to know that:

1) It takes a run differential of +100 to be a playoff caliber team
2) Individual players can have their run production/ prevention projected with a fair bit of accuracy

This year's team projected to be right around a 0 differential (.500) and it was until all the injuries hit. What's his plan for putting together a team that projects to do 100 runs better?

The Reds apparently just don't think this way. They think in abstract terms like leadership and playing the game the right way. They think about building a team who can "do the little things". They can't see the forest for the trees.

dougdirt
08-18-2009, 08:01 PM
The Reds apparently just don't think this way. They think in abstract terms like leadership and playing the game the right way. They think about building a team who can "do the little things". They can't see the forest for the trees.

I would be surprised if anyone who makes any type of player decisions has any clue of what you just said.

M2
08-18-2009, 08:02 PM
The FO has great difficulty picking up solid vets...I have no faith at all that they can get it done that way. Maybe the FO can pick them at a .500 pace, but the manager continues to use them even when the player is killing the team....if they stay with Dusty as the manager, the FO MUST BE 100% Correct IN THE SIGNING OF MLB VETS. If the FO is anything less than that, Dusty will find the least effective player and play the heck out of him, thus cancelling out gains. LEARN TO WIRE AROUND YOUR STAFF WALT.

Good points. That's why I'm for getting Grady Sizemore and Vlad Guerrero. Let Dusty play the heck out of them.

RedsManRick
08-18-2009, 08:04 PM
How did this man do so well in St. Louis? He sounds completely clueless.

The short answer is that he pulled off 4 "buy-low" heists -- and was given the money to do so -- (Edmonds, Carpenter, Pujols, Rolen) which all could have failed easily but ended up paying off huge:

Edmonds: Injury prone, slumping from a young peak, and entering a contract year when St. Louis acquired him. He resigned in St. Louis and went on to play at his peak level for 8 more years, through age 37, while playing in 135 games per year, 145 during 2000-2005.

Carpenter: Once vaunted prospect fails to perform and then has Tommy John surgery. St. Louis signs him in the cheap and then extends him long term at a bargain price. He turns in to a Cy Young caliber ace.

Pujols: 13th round draft pick. Everybody had a chance to draft him many times over so it's hardly like his success was predictable. Most 13th round picks don't even make it to AAA. He put up a 1.013 OPS over 600 PA as a 21 year old rookie and never looked back. Pujols will quite possibly retire as one of the best players in the history of the game. Getting MVP production from a guy make pennies is a big help.

Rolen: Rolen was a pending FA with a bulky back who desperately wanted out of Philadelphia and preferred to land in the midwest. By all accounts, the Reds and Phillies agreed to a trade before Reds ownership vetoed it because they didn't want to pony up the cash to extend him. St. Louis was able to flip a handful of mediocre prospects for him and extend him long term.

The odds of all of these things happening in such a tight window are pretty long. I have to wonder if Jocketty didn't quite appreciate just how much he owes to luck, Dave Duncan, and his medical staff...

For those of you may have missed this when I first wrote it, here's an in depth look back at Jocketty's tenure in St. Louis -- written before he left.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=62580



The St. Louis Cardinals: 1999-2007
What Can We Learn?

In 1999, the Cardinals completed a mediocre decade that saw them win less than half their games (.488 winning %) and make the playoffs just once. Their longtime icon, Ozzie Smith, was on his way out, and they lacked any real identity or direction. The late 90’s saw a trade for Mark McGwire, who wowed fans and fellow ballplayers alike with record home run totals. Unfortunately for the Cards, he didn’t do much for their playoff chances. The team was the definition of mediocre.

However, times were changing. A confluence of events would quickly turn the Cardinals in to the NL team of the 2000s. From 2000 through 2006, the Cards averaged 94 wins, made the playoffs every year but once, and capped the run with a World Series victory. The road wasn’t without it’s bumps, including the tragic death of ace starter Darryl Kyle, the spectacular and untimely collapse of pitching phenom Rick Ankiel, and the underwhelming contributions of supposed all-world and oft-injured OF JD Drew.

It’s now the end of the 2007 season and the run appears to have ended. The Redbirds have just locked up their first losing season of the decade, have one of the weakest minor league systems in baseball, only a few high ceiling youth on the major league roster, and their best on-field talent is quickly showing its age.

That said, any organization would love to have that 7-year run capped with a Championship. Let’s take a take a look at how it happened, what they did right, what went their way, and what lessons can be gleaned from their success. And let’s also examine how it fell apart. Could it have been prevented?

Sources:
Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com)
Cot’s Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com)
USA Today (http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/baseb...aspx?year=yyyy)

I apologize in advance for any factual errors. I've changed my approach a few times and had to go back over things. Also, apologies for the authoritative tone and haphazard organization observations section. This is really meant to spur discussion; not as my declaration of truth. So, on to the case study.


October 1999 – The Setup
Record: 75-86 (78-83 pythag)
Runs Scored-Against: 809-838
Playoffs: None
Opening Day Payroll: $46,248,195 (15th MLB, 8th NL)
Top 3 Draft picks: P Chance Caple (#30), P Nick Stocks (#36), 1B Chris Duncan (#46)

Major Midseason Transactions:
Aug 24th, 1999: Traded P Kent Mercker for P Mike Matthews and C David Benham (minors)

Primary Contributors:
C Marrero
1B McGwire / Clark
2B McEwing / Polanco
SS Renteria
3B Tatis
LF Lankford
CF Drew / Bragg
RF Davis / Howard / McGee

SP Bottenfield
SP Oliver
SP Jiminez
SP Mercker
SP Stephenson

CL Bottalico
RP Acevedo
RP Aybar

Summary: This was a team with a very shallow identity. For lack of a better term, they *****d McGwire and tried to put enough of a team around him to maintain respectability. McGwire’s salary was over 20% of the payroll, which says a lot about the construction of the roster. Renteria, Drew, and Tatis represented a nice young offensive core, but the pitching staff was full of low ceiling youth and mediocre retread veterans and performed accordingly.


2000 – Here Comes The Sun
Record: 95-67 (91-71 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 887-771
Playoffs: Lost NLCS
Opening Day Payroll: $63,900,023 (8th MLB, 5th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: 2B Shaun Boyd (#13), P Blake Williams (#24), P Chris Narveson (#53)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Nov 16th, 1999: Acquired P Pat Hentgen and P Paul Spoljaric for C Alberto Castillo, P Matt DeWitt, and P Lance Pantier
Nov 16th, 1999: Acquired P Darryl Kile, P Luther Hackman, and P Dave Veres for P Manny Aybar, IF Brent Bulter, P Rich Croushere, and P Jose Jiminez.
Dec 15th, 1999: Signed C Mike Matheny; arb eligible
Dec 20th, 1999: Acquired 2B Fernando Vina for P Juan Acevedo, C Eliezer Alfonso (minors), P Matt Parker (minors)
March 23rd, 2000: Acquired OF Jim Edmonds for P Kent Bottenfield and 2B Adam Kennedy

Major Midseason Transactions:
July 31st: Acquired 1B Will Clark for Jose Leon.

Primary Contributors:
C Matheny
1B McGwire / Clark
2B Vina / Polanco
SS Renteria
3B Tatis / Paquette
LF Lankford
CF Edmonds
RF Drew / Davis

SP Kile
SP Hentgen
SP Stephenson
SP Ankiel
SP Benes

CL Veres
RP Morris
RP James
RP Slocumb
RP Benes

Summary: Show me the money. Jocketty went out and traded a lot of young talent for 4 all-stars in their primes who were approaching FA and coming off poor years. Did a great job of buying low and selling high to improve the level of talent at the major league level without completely emptying the cupboard. The 99/00 offseason was the big bang that set the Cardinal dynasty in motion.


2001 – The Dawning of the Age of Albert Pujols
Record: 93-69 (94-68 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 814-684
Playoffs: Lost NLDS
Opening Day Payroll: $78,538,333 (9th MLB, 5th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: P Justin Pope (#23), P Danny Haren (#72), SS Joe Mather (#104)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Dec 14th, 2000: P Pat Hentgen granted free agency.
Dec 14th, 2000: Acquired P Dustin Hermanson and P Steve Kline for P Britt Reames and 3B Fernando Tatis.

Major Midseason Transactions:
Aug 2nd: Acquired P Woody Williams for OF Ray Lankford


Primary Contributors:
C Matheny / Marrero
1B McGwire / Pujols
2B Vina
SS Renteria
3B Polanco / Pujols
LF Lankford / Pujols
CF Edmonds
RF Drew / Pujols

SP Kile
SP Morris
SP Hermanson
SP Benes / Smith
SP Williams / Matthews

CL Veres
RP Matthews
RP Kline
RP Timlin
RP Stechschulte

Summary: Pujols was the 402nd pick of the 1999 draft and had a very solid debut in A ball, getting about 100 at bats in high A and AAA to end his first professional season. In 2000, he arrived a fully formed dynamo, able to keep the offense chugging along. The trade of Lankford for Woody Williams was a brilliant stroke which put Pujols in the everyday lineup while shoring up the starting rotation. Morris matured in to a starter, the deep bullpen gelled, and the team defense was excellent; Combined, run prevention improved significantly. It was very much a year of careful stewardship rather than bold action.


2002 – Once… Twice… Three Times a Winner
Record: 97-65 (95-67 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 787-648
Playoffs: Lost NLCS
Opening Day Payroll: $74,660,875 (10th MLB, 6th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: SS Calvin Hayes (#102), P John Boyer (#132), C Josh Bell (#162- DNS)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Dec 11th, 2001: Signed P Jason Isringhausen as a free agent; $27M/4yrs
Dec 15th, 2001: Traded P Dustin Hermanson for 1B Dustin Brissom (minors), 1B Luis Garcia (minors), and OF Rick Asadoorian (minors)
Dec 18th, 2001: Signed 1B Tino Martinez as a free agent; $21M/3yrs

Major Midseason Transactions:
June 22nd: P Darryl Kile passed away
July 19th: Acquired P Steve Finley for 1B Luis Garcia and OF Coco Crisp
July 29th: Acquired 3B Scott Rolen and P Doug Nickle for IF Placido Polanco, P Mike Timlin, and P Bud Smith

Primary Contributors:
C Matheny / Difelice
1B Martinez
2B Vina
SS Renteria
3B Polanco / Rolen / Pujols
LF Pujols / Marrero
CF Edmonds
RF Drew / Marrero

SP Morris
SP Kile / Williams
SP Benes / Smith
SP Finley / Simontacchi
SP Smith / Stevenson / Hackman

CL Isringhausen
RP Veres
RP Timlin
RP Kline
RP Crudale

Summary: Career seasons from a number of pitchers and great all around defense led to continued improvement in run prevention, despite a number of injuries and the tragic loss of Darryl Kile. The post-McGwire offense is in flux and scores fewer runs for the 2nd straight year. However, the midseason acquisition of Rolen cemented the middle of the lineup for years to come.


2003 – Three Steps Forward, One Step Back
Record: 85-77 (88-74 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 876-796
Playoffs: None
Opening Day Payroll: $83,786,666 (8th MLB, 4th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: C Daric Barton (#28), P Stuart Pomeranz (#65), P Dennis Dove (#95)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Nov 1st, 2002: Signed P Kiko Calero as a minor league free agent
Nov 26th, 2002: Exercised option on P Woody Williams; $7.25M/1yr
Dec 13th, 2002: Signed P Chris Carpenter as a free agent; $.5M/1yr w/ team option
Dec 15th, 2002: Acquired P Brett Tomko for P Luther Hackman and P Mike Wodnicki (minors)

Major Midseason Transactions:
None

Significant Contributors:
C Matheny / Widger
1B Martinez / Pujols
2B Hart / Vina / Cairo
SS Renteria
3B Rolen
LF Pujols
CF Edmonds
RF Drew / Perez / Palmeiro

SP Morris
SP Williams
SP Tomko
SP Stephenson / Hitchcock
SP Simontacchi / Haren

CL Isringhausen
RP Kline
RP Eldren
RP Fassero

Summary: The unfortunate death of Kile, the loss of Finley and Benes to FA, and the return to Earth for Woody Williams led to a big regression in run prevention. The bullpen, which had gone 5 deep the past few years, was suddenly quite mediocre behind the steady Isringhausen. The offense was superb, 2nd in the NL in runs scored, but it simply couldn’t score enough to outpace the poor pitching.


2004 – Far Away, So Close
Record: 105-65 (100-62 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 855-659
Playoffs: Lost WS
Opening Day Payroll: $83,228,333 (11th MLB, 7th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: P Christopher Lambert (#19), 1B Michael Ferris (#60), P Eric Haberer (#90)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Nov 21st, 2003: Traded 1B Tino Martinez for P Evan Rust (minors) and 1B John-Paul Davis (minors)
Dec 2nd, 2003: Re-signed P Chris Carpenter (2004 option not exercised), $2.5M/2yr
Dec 13th, 2003: Traded OF JD Drew and C/OF Eli Marrero for P Jason Marquis, P Ray King, and P Adam Wainwright.
Dec 18th, 2003: Signed P Jeff Suppan as free agent, $6M/2yr
Dec 19th, 2003: Signed OF Reggie Sanders as free agent, $6M/2yr

Major Midseason Transactions:
Aug 6th: Acquired RF Larry Walker for Jason Burch, Luis Martinez, and Chris Narveson

Significant Contributors:
C Matheny / Molina
1B Pujols
2B Womack
SS Renteria
3B Rolen
LF Lankford / Sanders / et. al.
CF Edmonds
RF Sanders / Walker

SP Morris
SP Williams
SP Carpenter
SP Marquis
SP Suppan

CL Isringhausen
RP King
RP Tavarez
RP Kline
RP Eldred

Summary: Ladies and Gentlemen, THAT is a starting rotation. Those 5 starters combined for 154 games started and all but Williams had ERAs under league average. The most notable addition being Chris Carpenter, the once top prospect who spent 2004 rehabbing from Tommy John on the Cardinal’s dime. The bullpen was spectacular, as new additions ROOGY Tavares and LOOGY King were used very effectively, easily offsetting the offensive downgrade from Drew to Sanders. The offense, with career years from Rolen and Edmonds, and with Pujols continuing to do his best Ted Williams impression, led the league with 855 runs scored.


2005 – You Can’t Always Get What You Want
Record: 100-62 (98-64 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 805-634
Playoffs: Lost NLCS
Opening Day Payroll: $92,106,833 (6th MLB, 3rd NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: OF Colby Rasums (#28), SS James Greene (#30), P Mark McCormick (#43)

Major Offseason Transactions:
Oct 29th, 2004: Edgar Renteria granted free agency
Nov 4th, 2004: Woody Williams granted free agency
Dec 7th, 2004: Re-signed P Matt Morris; $2.5M/1yr (earned $6.25M w/ incentives)
Dec 18th, 2004: Acquired P Mark Mulder for P Danny Haren, P Kiko Calero, C Daric Barton (minors)
Dec 23rd, 2004: Signed SS David Eckstein as free agent; $10.25M/3yrs

Major Midseason Transactions:
None

Significant Contributors:
C Molina / Diaz
1B Pujols
2B Grudzielanek
SS Eckstein
3B Nunez / Rolen
LF Sanders / Rodriguez
CF Edmonds
RF Walker / Taguchi

SP Carpenter
SP Morris
SP Mulder
SP Marquis
SP Suppan

CL Isringhausen
RP Tavarez
RP Reyes
RP Thompson
RP King

Summary: The offense was a testament to the power of OBP, as they had just 4 guys hit more than 10 HR. Pujols finally got his MVP over Bonds. Chris Carpenter apparently made it all the way back – and won a deserved Cy Young. New acquisition Mark Mulder replaced Woody Williams at little expense to the major league roster. The bullpen was excellent once again. The ERA of the various pitchers with mediocre stuff such as Suppan, Marquis, and Morris are a real testament to the value of a great defense. A healthy Scott Rolen might have been the difference between making the WS again, and being sent home by Carlos Belt—err the Houston Astros.


2006 – I’d Rather be Lucky than Good
Record: 83-78 (82-79 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 781-672
Playoffs: Won WS
Opening Day Payroll: $88,891,371 (11th MLB, 7th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: P Adam Ottavino (#30), P Christopher Perez (#42), P Thomas Furnish (#54)

Offseason Transactions:
Oct 28th, 2005: P Matt Morris granted free agency
Nov 9th, 2005: OF Larry Walker granted free agency
Dec 7th, 2005: Traded P Ray King for OF Larry Bigbie and 2B Aaron Miles
Dec 22nd, 2005: Signed P Braden Looper as free agent; $13.5M/3yrs
Jan 10th, 2006: Signed OF Juan Encarnacion as free agent; $15M/3yrs

Midseason Transactions:
July 5th: Acquired Jeff Weaver for Terry Evans
Aug 18th: Signed Preston Wilson as free agent

Significant Contributors:
C Molina / Bennett
1B Pujols
2B Miles / Belliard / Luna
SS Eckstein / Luna
3B Rolen
LF Taguchi / Duncan / et. al.
CF Edmonds / Taguchi
RF Encarnacion

SP Carpenter
SP Suppan
SP Marquis
SP Mulder / Reyes
SP Ponson / Weaver

CL Isringhausen
RP Looper
RP Hancock
RP Wainwright
RP Thompson

Summary: 2006 was the awkward culmination of the Cardinals mini-dynasty. Make no mistake, this was a mediocre team with a few standout players dragging the rest of the roster to the playoffs in a pathetic NL Central. Injuries gave lots of at bats to backups who had no business getting them and Molina and Miles were sub-replacement level. Carpenter was superb yet again, but Jason Marquis fell off a cliff, Mark Mulder was ineffective before admitting injury, and none of the replacements were very good. The bullpen was merely ok, with rookie Adam Wainwright a bright spot. Jeff Weaver got confused and thought he was a good pitcher in October as they outlasted the Mets in the NLDS, out-pitched the Padres in the NLCS, and then the clearly superior Tigers just rolled over in the World Series.


2007 – You Don’t Know What You’ve Got ‘Til It’s Gone
Record: 75-87* (70-92 pythag)
Runs Scored-Allowed: 719-834*
Playoffs: None
Opening Day Payroll: $90,286,823 (11th MLB, 4th NL)
Top 3 Draft Picks: SS Peter Kozma (#18), P Clayton Mortensen (#36), P David Kopp (#71)

Offseason Transactions:
Nov 11th, 2006: Signed IF Scott Spiezio as free agent; $4.5M/2yrs (team option for 2009)
Nov 28th, 2006: Signed 2B Adam Kennedy as free agent; $10M/3yrs
Nov 28th, 2006: Signed P Kip Wells as free agent; $4M/1yr
Dec 4th, 2006: Signed P Chris Carpenter to extension; $63.5M/5yrs
Jan 10th, 2007: Signed P Mark Mulder as free agent; $13M/2yrs (team option for 2009)

Midseason Transactions:
Jun 8th: Signed P Troy Percival as minor league free agent:
Jun 22nd: Acquired P Mike Maroth for PTBNL
Jul 31st: Acquired P Joel Pineiro for minor league PTBNL
Aug 31st: Acquired IF/OF Russell Branyan for PTBNL

Significant Contributors:
C Molina / Bennett
1B Pujols
2B Kennedy / Miles
SS Eckstein / Miles
3B Rolen / Speizio
LF Duncan / Ludwick / Taguchi
CF Edmonds / Taguchi
RF Encarnacion / Ankiel

SP Wainwright
SP Looper
SP Wells
SP Reyes / Pineiro
SP Thompson / Wellemeyer / Maroth

CL Isringhausen
RP Franklin
RP Springer
FP Flores

Summary: Blame the injury to Chris Carpenter if you want, but the real story is the absolute failure to replace lost talent. The 06/07 offseason was one of the most active, and yet a bunch of money was thrown to bit players. Why? Because 60% of the $90M payroll was invested in retaining Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Isringhausen, and Carpenter. Injuries continued to sap Rolen and Edmonds of playing time and effectiveness. Rick Ankiel’s miracle comeback is possibly already over. The minor leagues produced only a relatively ineffective Anthony Reyes and the midseason trades were for a bunch of castoffs rather than legitimate upgrades. They haven’t scored runs and they haven’t prevented them. It doesn’t look promising for 2008 either. ~Fin


Observations
So, what can we learn? Well, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. But I will make some observations, in no particular order.

1. You need to get significant contributions from players making very little money. A winning team requires so much production, and production is valued so highly in the market, that no sub $100M payroll team can buy enough.
2. If the players on your team making a lot of money aren’t earning it, you’re in deep crap.
3. Mediocre money spent on mediocre talent in free agency is money wasted. Unlike top level production, it can be obtained cheaply given prudent general management and good scouting. There's a new Jeff Keppinger every year.
4. You have to either develop your talent or trade it for already developed talent. You cannot just let it rot. It’s like not getting your employers match on your 401k. You might not care now, but you will regret not maximizing your assets. Turn Kent Bottenfield into Jim Edmonds while somebody still believes he'll be more than just Kent Bottenfield someday.
5. Beware significant investment in pitchers. It just comes down to injury. Few position players suffer season and career ending injuries. Many pitchers do and are more impacted by those injuries. Money should buy you less commitment, not more.
6. Don’t underestimate the value of not having sub replacement-level talent getting significant at bats. You can gain superstars worth of production by having real professional ballplayers at the bottom of your roster.
7a. The value of good defense and offense in the same player cannot be emphasized enough. Those players are so rare and it’s very easy to focus on one aspect of a player’s game and not give proper value to their failings in the overall evaluation of their worth. If Adam Dunn hit .250/.350/.475 and played average defense, would we consider him a potential cornerstone?
7b. This is especially true up the middle. Quick, name all of the players up the middle who are average or better both offensive AND defensively. It shouldn't take long.
8. Player development matters. Often, people pay a lot of attention to the draft and then put the responsibility of success solely on the player. The examples of players left underutilized or underdeveloped because of institution bias is incredibly long. The cost/benefit of good player development personnel decisions is the highest of any in the organization.
9. Rescuing guys off the scrap heap can pay dividends, but don’t build your retirement strategy around it. Jeff Weaver played a significant role in the 2006 WS win at minimal cost. Mark Mulder and Mike Maroth will provide virtually nothing for some significant money.
10. If you’re going to make a move, make it matter. Don't go halfway with the hopes of getting the best of both worlds. Assuming the best rarely ends in good results. If you need everything to go your way to win, you need more things.
11. Remember upside. Don’t trade mediocre youth for mediocre vets. Do trade mediocre vets for mediocre youth. You might be underestimating your youth. You’re likely overestimate the vets. If another organization has a history of exploiting these types of deals, be very very careful. They are probably better than you at evaluating talent.
12. Talent is the real currency of baseball, not money. Talent is finite, money (essentially) isn’t. If you have talent, you can get money. You can get money from a variety of places. But no matter how much money you have, talent is quite limited. There is only 1 Albert Pujols. In other words, don’t "cash in" talent with the assumption you can buy it back later. If you can ever afford to, hoard talent.
13. If you feel you have the opportunity to succeed in the short term, identify your needs and fill them. You never know when you'll get another chance. Just don’t forget the “don’t do it halfway” rule.

Reds Fanatic
08-18-2009, 08:06 PM
I would not even care as much if this team was going with another rebuilding plan if I thought they had any clue what they are really doing. They say they want a long term plan with developing young talent then how do they possibly explain the Rolen deal. Nothing against Rolen but you gave up two young pitchers one who was one of the better prospects in the whole system to get him.

Then there are the deals that make no sense from the start like a multi year deal to Taveras. A lead off hitter who does not get on base. He had a low OBP everywhere he has been why would the Reds be any different.

Either you are rebuilding or not rebuilding or you keep doing what this team has being doing for years making random moves with the hope that eventually they will luck into a winning lottery ticket.

Chip R
08-18-2009, 08:08 PM
Don't know. Maybe there's nowhere for it to come from. In which case the answer is blow it apart and rebuild.

All I'm saying is this Reds team needs to spend closer to $90M if it wants to turn lip service about competing into reality. The team can get major offensive contributors for relative peanuts, but it's going to cost more total dollars to do it.



The Marlins can do that because they have scouts who can trade for, draft and sign the right players and coaches in the organization that can develop those players. How confident are you that the Reds have guys like that in the organization? If tearing down and rebuilding is so easy, everyone would be able to do it.

As for upping the payroll, let's say for sake of argument that payroll this year is $70M. That means that they have to find $20M more dollars for next year and the next year and the year after that and so on. I don't think Bob and his partners have that much jack to invest and if they did, I doubt they would use it to sink into the Reds' payroll. I think you said it yourself, if they had more payflex, they would only use it to sign guys like Hairston and Tavares and Lincoln. This isn't StL. No one wants to come here unless the Reds over paid like with Cordero.

jojo
08-18-2009, 08:16 PM
The plan is to get in shape by having your cake and getting to eat it to.....

The Reds have adopted the Jenny Craig program for competitiveness though it's not sure they can afford the meal plan.

M2
08-18-2009, 08:22 PM
The Marlins can do that because they have scouts who can trade for, draft and sign the right players and coaches in the organization that can develop those players. How confident are you that the Reds have guys like that in the organization? If tearing down and rebuilding is so easy, everyone would be able to do it.

As for upping the payroll, let's say for sake of argument that payroll this year is $70M. That means that they have to find $20M more dollars for next year and the next year and the year after that and so on. I don't think Bob and his partners have that much jack to invest and if they did, I doubt they would use it to sink into the Reds' payroll. I think you said it yourself, if they had more payflex, they would only use it to sign guys like Hairston and Tavares and Lincoln. This isn't StL. No one wants to come here unless the Reds over paid like with Cordero.

I agree the Marlins make tearing it apart look easy. It isn't and it's fraught with danger, but if you can't afford to make the additions that could put your club into contention then you've pretty much got to tear it apart. Otherwise you're stuck in Nowheresville.

It gets me back to what I said in the first place, Walt needs to lay out the either/or for Bob. With the extra cash he can afford to move prospects for a Grady Sizemore. With the extra cash he can get a Vlad Guerrero for way less than a Vlad Guerrero would have cost before the market contracted. He can make a few other opportunistic in addition to that (because there is some money coming off the books from what the club paid at the start of the season).

Without the cash, the club is basically hoping Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen have huge seasons and everything goes 100% right with the pitching staff. Even then it still might not be enough to generate 90 wins.

RED VAN HOT
08-18-2009, 08:53 PM
I am clearly in the minority that believes WJ stated the plan as clearly as could be expected. It is much as Fay reported earlier. The Reds will not shop on the FA market. They are not likely to pull off a blockbuster trade. What they will do is continue to fill the minor league pipeline and attempt to build a contending team that can be sustained from within.

I did not like moving Stewart, but I don't take that as abandoning the youth movement. EE was not going to be the third baseman next year. At the time, Francisco was progressing slowly. The acquisition of Rolen has been questioned. I recall thinking, however, that the Tigers' signing of Ivan Rodriquez to a rebuilding team was insane. That turned out very well. Perhaps Rolen can play the same stabilizing role.

I see the 'trades' of JHJ, AG, and DW as a departure from the patchwork solutions that have become the norm. I fully expect to see Stubbs in CF next year even if WJ is not able to move WT. I think the Reds have a good nucleus of position players. The glaring weakness is, of course, SS. I can't see a 2010 fix for it. Starting pitching will be thin, but not horrible. I suspect that is an area in which the Reds may attempt to sign FA options, just as they did this year for LF.

I agree with those that question the coaching, particularly batting. The emphasis on pull hitting is frustrating. Use the whole field. Moreover, the competition seems always to have more quality AB's that work the pitcher. Eventually, it shows up in W-L, particularly as the season wears on.

The injuries were clearly a huge factor. I checked and the Reds were only 3 games out on July 5. I don't think Dusty could have been expected to manage around the injury situation. Nevertheless, I question whether he will be a fit for a true youth movement. I would consider a manager who has worked with these players in the minors.

dougdirt
08-18-2009, 08:57 PM
The injuries were clearly a huge factor. I checked and the Reds were only 3 games out on July 5. I don't think Dusty could have been expected to manage around the injury situation. Nevertheless, I question whether he will be a fit for a true youth movement. I would consider a manager who has worked with these players in the minors.

The problem is, they were 3 games back because everyone else also sucked at the time. In a normal year the 3 games back would have been 9 or 10 and not competing. It sounds like the Reds only way they expect to compete in 2010 is if the rest of the division continues to play at a crappy level that it was showing up to that point.

Ltlabner
08-18-2009, 09:10 PM
You know, I think that quote was the most telling of all. It's pretty easy to know that:

1) It takes a run differential of +100 to be a playoff caliber team
2) Individual players can have their run production/ prevention projected with a fair bit of accuracy

This year's team projected to be right around a 0 differential (.500) and it was until all the injuries hit. What's his plan for putting together a team that projects to do 100 runs better?

The Reds apparently just don't think this way. They think in abstract terms like leadership and playing the game the right way. They think about building a team who can "do the little things". They can't see the forest for the trees.

Don't forget faux-hustle. That's important too.

The shame is the items in your main paragraph are all proven, analytical items that have a far greater chance of producing a successful team than the mush in the last paragraph. Instead of implementing a plan to address the items in paragraph one THEN deal with the items in the last para to "put the icing on the cake" they focus on the "finishing touches" and spin in circles.

Then again they use the finishing touches of leadership, PTGTRW and "doing the little things" as a smoke-screen to sell sub-replacement level talent to unsuspecting casual fans.

RED VAN HOT
08-18-2009, 09:52 PM
The problem is, they were 3 games back because everyone else also sucked at the time. In a normal year the 3 games back would have been 9 or 10 and not competing. It sounds like the Reds only way they expect to compete in 2010 is if the rest of the division continues to play at a crappy level that it was showing up to that point.

I think that is exactly what he meant in describing the 2010 chances. I don't think he sees a Reds team that can play .600 ball.

jojo
08-18-2009, 09:53 PM
All I know is that Jocketty has a hard job.

Falls City Beer
08-18-2009, 09:57 PM
All I know is that Jocketty has a hard job.

Of this there is no doubt. It's actually a little astonishing--even to someone as cynical and hardened as I am--how bad a shape this franchise is in, even without taking into consideration the FO or ownership.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2009, 10:07 PM
“The plan is . . . we have a plan, let’s put at that. . . The plan is to try and develop quality young players and build a foundation for the organization for the long-term, not just the short-term.

Ah, so that's why they traded their top pitching prospect for a 34 year old third baseman? Great plan.

M2
08-18-2009, 10:16 PM
Ah, so that's why they traded their top pitching prospect for a 34 year old third baseman? Great plan.

I gotta make plans for the plans I make
Gotta have friends for the friends I make
I gotta make plans for the friends I make
Gotta have friends for the plans I make
Go make plans

UKFlounder
08-18-2009, 10:18 PM
"Failing to plan is planning to fail" but the Reds' apparent "plan to plan" will likely not "fail to fail"

(or something like that...)

RedsBaron
08-18-2009, 10:19 PM
Custer had a plan.

HokieRed
08-18-2009, 10:23 PM
Custer had a plan.

Crazy Horse had a better one.

flyer85
08-18-2009, 10:25 PM
:all_cohol

Tom Servo
08-18-2009, 11:12 PM
I'm honestly beginning to wish we had kept Wayne. Because really, what difference has it made firing him?

CarolinaRedleg
08-18-2009, 11:14 PM
I'm honestly beginning to wish we had kept Wayne. Because really, what difference has it made firing him?

The losing stopped.

tripleaaaron
08-19-2009, 12:20 AM
Where's that cash going to come from? It sure isn't coming from butts in the seats like it did in StL.

If you build it, they will come. Just put a good product on the field and the fair weather fans of Cincy will show up eventually (look at the bengals, they still have solid support) and they will stay as long as the team stays competitive. We have the fanbase to support a high income team we just need the upfront investment.

Spring~Fields
08-19-2009, 12:35 AM
For some reason the Bengals argument and the support they get doesn't work for me. They play 8 home games during the fall and winter when there really isn't a lot to do in the Buckeye state. Eight home games where many fans might just go to to see the other teams and their players too.

Krusty
08-19-2009, 12:45 AM
The Reds need to bite the bullet the next couple of years and go with the kids.

Ron Madden
08-19-2009, 04:48 AM
GOOD GRIEF!

I feel like Charlie Friggin' Brown right now. :(

Ltlabner
08-19-2009, 05:47 AM
I hope they have a plan B, because their plan A ain't cutting it.

mth123
08-19-2009, 06:16 AM
I think the plan is about played out.

The Reds maxed out the payroll and expended their top pitching prospect (and by definition top trade piece) in the Rolen deal. IMO Rolen is the "big right handed bat" that Walt has been talking about (falls short of expectations IMO). I'd guess that 2010 will see a staff of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey and Owings in the rotation with Cordero, Rhodes, Masset, Burton, Fisher and Herrera in the pen. The last spot probably goes to Ramon Ramirez with a hope for a Bill Bray comeback in the mix. If they aren't dealt in minor trades, Lecure, Maloney, Lehr and maybe Wood, Viola and Ondrusek will be in reserve for later in the year. We may see Volquez late in 2010.

On the position side I think Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Dickerson, Bruce, Balentien, Gomes and Hanigan are locks. I'd guess that Walt will make a minor move for a stopgap at SS and a journeyman catcher. A LH hitting OF to platoon with Gomes in LF is probably brought in (but they may just bring Nix back - I'd give Danny Dorn a shot at that job). The other spots will be some combo of Janish, Rosales, Sutton and maybe Stubbs or Heisey (though I don't think either is ready). Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, Cozart and Alonso may be in the mix at some point in 2010 but not out of Spring Training. The wild card is whether or not they can or will dump Willy.

As was the case this year, if Bruce, Bailey and Cueto all fulfill their potential, the team can compete. If not, well, it will be another debacle IMO.

Roy Tucker
08-19-2009, 08:19 AM
Men plan, God laughs.

Falls City Beer
08-19-2009, 08:21 AM
As was the case this year, if Bruce, Bailey and Cueto all fulfill their potential, the team can compete. If not, well, it will be another debacle IMO.

What are the odds that even *one* of those players fulfills his potential (though "potential" is the dicey word there)?

edabbs44
08-19-2009, 08:24 AM
What are the odds that even *one* of those players fulfills his potential (though "potential" is the dicey word there)?

I think the expectation of timing is the true issue. Relying on 21 and 22 year olds to be key players in your season is dumb.

I think that Bruce reaches all-star status...but it might be in 2013 instead of 2010, which is fine by me.

princeton
08-19-2009, 08:24 AM
“The plan is . . . we have a plan, let’s put at that. . . The plan is to try and develop quality young players and build a foundation for the organization for the long-term, not just the short-term.

“We’re also trying to be fair to our fans and be competitive as much as we could this year. I think we were until we were hit with a lot of injuries in the middle of July. We didn’t have the depth to compensate for it.

“The plan is to continue to sign quality young talent and develop it to the major league level. That’s simplifying it. But that’s the plan.”


I always wondered what a duck says after being struck hard on its head. I was expecting Walt to just say "QUACK!"

Falls City Beer
08-19-2009, 08:28 AM
I think that Bruce reaches all-star status...but it might be in 2013 instead of 2010, which is fine by me.

When Bruce gets within a yard of putting even a mediocre MLB offspeed pitch in play, I'll get excited. That was a Larson-esque outing of a player we witnessed this summer.

It's going to take something transcendental to get him back to all-star discussion.

jojo
08-19-2009, 08:28 AM
A significant part of the justification for signing Willy was the Reds thought they could "fix" him.

Maybe through Willy, we're getting a sense of how well the Reds fix guys.

Just looking at counting stats, it looks like they've fixed him right out of professional baseball...

All kidding and WT bashing aside, I think Taveras should really give the fan base cause for pause about the abilities of this organization.

Falls City Beer
08-19-2009, 08:33 AM
All kidding and WT bashing aside, I think Taveras should really give the fan base cause for pause about the abilities of this organization.

I agree. Though one needn't stop at Willy if he's looking for evidence of coaching incompetence.

nate
08-19-2009, 08:53 AM
All kidding and WT bashing aside, I think Taveras should really give the fan base cause for pause about the abilities of this organization.

This is what raises ire rather than Willy Taveras the person and baseball player. That the Reds thought he would be good, have seen him play and CONTINUE to do so.

Hal McCoy gave him a pretty thorough dressing down in his column last night. Mark Sheldon was pretty incredulous about the fly ball on his twitter feed. It's just silly that the guy continues to get ABs and the team expects a different result.

And to your point, this is the biggest deficiency of the Reds IMO. Their development and coaching is poor.

Fixing that is more important, to me, than any spot on the 25-man.

Degenerate39
08-19-2009, 08:56 AM
Are you sure you have a plan Walt? Are you sure you don't have anything?

15fan
08-19-2009, 09:07 AM
Where's that cash going to come from? It sure isn't coming from butts in the seats like it did in StL.

www.megamillions.com

$207 million if they draw your numbers 8/21/09.

Cash option is $130 million, which means you'd clear about $75 million after taxes.

membengal
08-19-2009, 09:16 AM
That drivel from Walt seemed eerily reminiscent of this from the character Tom Smykowski in Office Space to the two Bobs:


Well-well look. I already told you: I deal with the darn customers so the engineers don’t have to. I have people skills; I am good at dealing with people. Can’t you understand that? What the hell is wrong with you people?

bucksfan2
08-19-2009, 09:16 AM
In 2004 Pudge Rodriguez signed a contract around 5 years $50M. Pudge was coming off a WS championship with the Marlins and was largely considered one of the best catchers in the history of the game. Not only was he good at the plate, but he was considered great at calling a game and handling pitchers. That year the Tigers went 72-90 without a single starting pitcher having a W-L record above .500. In 2005 the Tigers had another disappointing year, going 71-91 with only Bonderman eclipsing a .500 W-L mark as a starter. The young pitchers were run out there again and took their lumps.

In 2006 the Tigers turned everything around. With a couple of key acquisitions, Ordonez and Kenny Rogers, as well as a rookie pitcher named Verlander, the Tigers went from bottom dwellers to AL Champs. The Tigers turned into perennial division contenders, as well as with increased fan fare were able to spend more money. IIRC the season after their WS berth they drafted Porcello later in the draft and paid him a big bonus. IMO had they not had the success they would not have taken the chance on a demanding, high school pitcher, whose agent was Boras.

Plans are painful. They take time to reverse a decade of losing. They take time to change the culture of an organization. They take patience as well very good player evaluations. Jocketty isn't going to come out and say the plan is to do X,Y, and Z. MLB GM's aren't going to come out and say exactly what they are going to do. It would take away any advantage they have. Its like playing a game of chess. You aren't going to tell you opponent what you are going to do because that would decrease your chances of success.

What gets lost in the shuffle of everything is that the Reds still need to put a MLB team on the field. You have to give fans a reason to walk through the gates, to spend money at the park, to by apparel, etc. You could have played the entire season with very young players and have been out of contention by May. IMO as much dislike as Dusty gets he has done a pretty fair job of giving younger players a chance to play. Him and Walt have stuck with Cueto and Homer as they struggle with pitching issues. He stuck with Bruce even when most wanted him shipped down to AAA for some confidence building. Dickerson is now getting AB's in the lead off roll. Hopefully as the season goes along, most of the younger players are able to play and take their lumps.

membengal
08-19-2009, 09:27 AM
Very well said.

Indeed. But it's been said over and over again on this board, by M2 and whole bunch of others.

Why can't the Reds see this?

Pick one, or pick the other.

But pick an approach.

Half measures will NOT work. And doom this team to the 70+ win hamster wheel.

As ever.

Chip R
08-19-2009, 09:30 AM
That drivel from Walt seemed eerily reminiscent of this from the character Tom Smykowski in Office Space to the two Bobs:


When I read Walt's remarks it reminded me of an episode of the West Wing where when asked why he wants to run for president, a character says, "The reason I would run, were I to run, is I have great belief in this country as a country and in this people as a people that go into making this country a nation with the greatest natural resources and population of people...educated people." :confused:

M2
08-19-2009, 09:32 AM
In 2004 Pudge Rodriguez signed a contract around 5 years $50M. Pudge was coming off a WS championship with the Marlins and was largely considered one of the best catchers in the history of the game. Not only was he good at the plate, but he was considered great at calling a game and handling pitchers. That year the Tigers went 72-90 without a single starting pitcher having a W-L record above .500. In 2005 the Tigers had another disappointing year, going 71-91 with only Bonderman eclipsing a .500 W-L mark as a starter. The young pitchers were run out there again and took their lumps.

In 2006 the Tigers turned everything around. With a couple of key acquisitions, Ordonez and Kenny Rogers, as well as a rookie pitcher named Verlander, the Tigers went from bottom dwellers to AL Champs. The Tigers turned into perennial division contenders, as well as with increased fan fare were able to spend more money. IIRC the season after their WS berth they drafted Porcello later in the draft and paid him a big bonus. IMO had they not had the success they would not have taken the chance on a demanding, high school pitcher, whose agent was Boras.

Plans are painful. They take time to reverse a decade of losing. They take time to change the culture of an organization. They take patience as well very good player evaluations. Jocketty isn't going to come out and say the plan is to do X,Y, and Z. MLB GM's aren't going to come out and say exactly what they are going to do. It would take away any advantage they have. Its like playing a game of chess. You aren't going to tell you opponent what you are going to do because that would decrease your chances of success.

What gets lost in the shuffle of everything is that the Reds still need to put a MLB team on the field. You have to give fans a reason to walk through the gates, to spend money at the park, to by apparel, etc. You could have played the entire season with very young players and have been out of contention by May. IMO as much dislike as Dusty gets he has done a pretty fair job of giving younger players a chance to play. Him and Walt have stuck with Cueto and Homer as they struggle with pitching issues. He stuck with Bruce even when most wanted him shipped down to AAA for some confidence building. Dickerson is now getting AB's in the lead off roll. Hopefully as the season goes along, most of the younger players are able to play and take their lumps.

That's some serious stream of consciousness you've got going on there. I was waiting for the Knights Templar and J. Edgar Hoover to work their way into the flow.

traderumor
08-19-2009, 09:45 AM
We’re also trying to be fair to our fans and be competitive as much as we could this year.While all the other garbage is just GM double speak, this patronizing comment is insulting. They wanted to "be competitive as much as we could this year" because they are dependent on attendance for a significant revenue stream. They don't have the courage to go all out in one direction, either putting in the cash to "pay to play" as I discussed a few weeks ago, or by going into all out rebuild mode. They play the lukewarm game, which is disgusting and makes me vomit.

Raisor
08-19-2009, 09:51 AM
So, is it time for a new poll? Time to deep six/File 13 Walt?

princeton
08-19-2009, 09:52 AM
Walt obviously needs a terse mission statement.


princeton's suggestion:


"2015 BABY!"

Reds Fanatic
08-19-2009, 12:19 PM
That drivel from Walt seemed eerily reminiscent of this from the character Tom Smykowski in Office Space to the two Bobs:Maybe that is how Walt is making his decisions with a Jump to Conclusions Mat.

flyer85
08-19-2009, 12:20 PM
GOOD GRIEF!

I feel like Charlie Friggin' Brown right now. :(and the Reds FO is Lucy holding the football.

OldXOhio
08-19-2009, 12:34 PM
This is what raises ire rather than Willy Taveras the person and baseball player. That the Reds thought he would be good, have seen him play and CONTINUE to do so.

Hal McCoy gave him a pretty thorough dressing down in his column last night. Mark Sheldon was pretty incredulous about the fly ball on his twitter feed. It's just silly that the guy continues to get ABs and the team expects a different result.

And to your point, this is the biggest deficiency of the Reds IMO. Their development and coaching is poor.

Fixing that is more important, to me, than any spot on the 25-man.

The only plan I can see is one involving further isolation of the fan base, repeated cost > talent based decisions and support for a manager clearly out of his element. I'd like to give Walt the proverbial time, but enough has passed in my mind to see that the status quo remains. OB, Wayne, Walt....just doesn't matter any more.

SirFelixCat
08-19-2009, 12:37 PM
What I wonder is why, those of you who live @ the area and go to Redsfest and such, don't you voice this stuff? Granted it's the offseason, but someone, somewhere, needs to ask the real questions of this FO and no one is doing that.

Bumstead
08-19-2009, 12:41 PM
What I heard when I read that is: We're going to build from the middle like we have been for 10+ years...doesn't work without $$$$$$$$$$....:rolleyes:

traderumor
08-19-2009, 12:53 PM
Did find something for the Reds to hang their hat on--the symmetry of stink both home and away. They have once again managed to have the same home and away record (25-34). Pretty amazing this late in the season. Bet Walt didn't plan on that :(

Spring~Fields
08-19-2009, 01:51 PM
That's some serious stream of consciousness you've got going on there. I was waiting for the Knights Templar and J. Edgar Hoover to work their way into the flow.

:laugh:

:clap:

Cyclone792
08-19-2009, 02:01 PM
What I wonder is why, those of you who live @ the area and go to Redsfest and such, don't you voice this stuff? Granted it's the offseason, but someone, somewhere, needs to ask the real questions of this FO and no one is doing that.

Intelligent baseball fans are a minority here in Cincinnati, and unfortunately this forum's baseball acumen isn't a representation of the casual fan here. A player such as Willy T is a proven commodity that loads of casual fans falsely believed was a positive move. It was accepted as "hey, the Reds are spending money to bring in a proven center fielder!"

The baseball conversations I hear around me when I attend games just makes me chuckle. In some ways, the common fan here just gets what they deserve with the Lost Decade.

dsmith421
08-19-2009, 02:06 PM
The baseball conversations I hear around me when I attend games just makes me chuckle. In some ways, the common fan here just gets what they deserve with the Lost Decade.

I strongly suspect that the intelligence level of Cincinnati baseball fans is no different than that of other fanbases. As BPro noted one time, given the mismanagement of the Reds franchise the surprise is not that Reds fans place value on meaningless player attributes, it's that the Reds have any fans left at all.

traderumor
08-19-2009, 02:22 PM
Intelligent baseball fans are a minority here in Cincinnati, and unfortunately this forum's baseball acumen isn't a representation of the casual fan here. A player such as Willy T is a proven commodity that loads of casual fans falsely believed was a positive move. It was accepted as "hey, the Reds are spending money to bring in a proven center fielder!"

The baseball conversations I hear around me when I attend games just makes me chuckle. In some ways, the common fan here just gets what they deserve with the Lost Decade.The empty seats tell me most people understand very well. Its what separates us from Cubs fans ;)

Roy Tucker
08-19-2009, 02:34 PM
I'm starting to think a Cub fan brought the billy goat to GABP and left it.

Cyclone792
08-19-2009, 02:35 PM
I strongly suspect that the intelligence level of Cincinnati baseball fans is no different than that of other fanbases. As BPro noted one time, given the mismanagement of the Reds franchise the surprise is not that Reds fans place value on meaningless player attributes, it's that the Reds have any fans left at all.

My guess is you're probably mostly correct, though I suspect that some organizations (maybe Boston and a few others who have rabid fans) may be a tier higher on the common fan intelligence meter.

It's just entirely predictable when I head to GABP and hear things such as "Man, that Rosales guy can sure play. He's a heckuva ballplayer! Look at how he hustles down that line!" or vice versa. For example, the rain of boos that were thrown at Willy T last night weren't for his awful performance, both at the plate and in center field, but were instead because he jogged down the first base line on his dribbler to the pitcher.

The fans equate "hustle" with "valuable" and that's where the separation begins. Some players who hustle are actually valuable whereas other players who hustle just aren't valuable - we know this, but many people don't unfortunately. I don't think we'll find anybody who doesn't like hustle, but the disconnect is when the common fan places actual value (or implied significant run value) on hustle.

In reality, however, we know that a player who stinks and hustles still stinks, and a player who is good and hustles is still good.

I think most of it is actually an extension of the local media arm, which means that the fans will value what the broadcasters and writers communicate to them (that gets us back to the Marty discussions). If a team suddenly had broadcasters and beat writers routinely raising their level of discourse on the team, the fan base would likely follow suit.

The quickest way for the common fan base to understand the value of advanced statistics is for the broadcasters and writers to regularly refer to those statistics. Imagine if FSN Ohio stopped listing BA/HR/RBI on the screen and instead listed OBP/SLG/OPS and runs created. Mix in the broadcasters making that change and then the writers also making that change, and the fan base would be forced to slowly adjust.

But until the media reaches that point, we'll be stuck with what we've got, and the downside is that the entire fan base continues to be duped by an inept organization.

nate
08-19-2009, 02:43 PM
That's a good post, Cyclone. To his credit, Chris Welsh has been talking about Chris Dickerson's OBP vs. Willy's over the course of the season.

I've said it before but I think it would be cool to introduce some of these "lighter" statistics during the "Tech Talk" portion of the pre-game. That feature can be all over the place in terms of content (I still have no idea what Alex Gonzales said in any of his appearances) but I think some digestible "sound byte" things could be conveyed along with real life examples.

I mean, if they can have a segment with the freaking "Batting Stance Guy," they can explain the value of acquiring a lot of bases.

traderumor
08-19-2009, 02:56 PM
I'm starting to think a Cub fan brought the billy goat to GABP and left it.Pedro Borbon has put another curse on us because we shut down the Jose Rijo Shamcademy

Chip R
08-19-2009, 03:07 PM
I mean, if they can have a segment with the freaking "Batting Stance Guy," they can explain the value of acquiring a lot of bases.


Raisor's got some free time. He could do it flanked by all his Nobel Prizes.

Ltlabner
08-19-2009, 03:47 PM
Then they will ignore the "kids" like they ignore the current team in September when the games are meaningless. Except the ignoring will start in June. Or maybe May in a bad year.

Unfortunately, the fans have already deserted this franchise. For the most part, people just flat don't care about this organization.

That's what Bozo Bob can't get through his skull. The fans already ignore this team.

Put a winner on the field and the chances of getting more than the die-hard lunatics and free ticket users to show up at the park. If that takes a couple years of penance before entering the promised land, so be it.

Quit worrying about "losing the fans". You've already lost them.

flyer85
08-19-2009, 03:57 PM
Unfortunately, the fans have already deserted this franchise. For the most part, people just flat don't care about this organization.
they give us the build through within line and so they go out and trade a couple of decent prospects for an over-the-hill 3b. Schizophrenic is the most apt description I can think of.

M2
08-19-2009, 04:25 PM
My guess is you're probably mostly correct, though I suspect that some organizations (maybe Boston and a few others who have rabid fans) may be a tier higher on the common fan intelligence meter.

I can testify to the knuckle-dragging qualities of many Red Sox fans. Sports radio around here is terrifying. It's just a bigger fan base, so there's more of everything.

You can actually tell a longtime Sox fan when they begin moaning over the team being down a run or two in the early innings. After winning two World Series in recent years they really need to be smacked into the recognition that they've got to stop acting so doomed.

M2
08-19-2009, 04:28 PM
Pedro Borbon has put another curse on us because we shut down the Jose Rijo Shamcademy

Another curse? I must have missed the first one.

Making Pedro Borbon is bad juju for the Reds. He was perhaps the most underappreciated cog in the BRM.

westofyou
08-19-2009, 04:31 PM
That's some serious stream of consciousness you've got going on there. I was waiting for the Knights Templar and J. Edgar Hoover to work their way into the flow.

Or the number 23, some sufi's a Mayan time piece or at least something mentioning Pleiades.

westofyou
08-19-2009, 04:32 PM
Another curse? I must have missed the first one.

Making Pedro Borbon is bad juju for the Reds. He was perhaps the most underappreciated cog in the BRM.

Yep he cursed the Reds, Pedro (the poster) and 2 other Reds fans beat it in 1990 by all of them having his last reds baseball card in ther wallets all season.

tripleaaaron
08-19-2009, 04:50 PM
For some reason the Bengals argument and the support they get doesn't work for me. They play 8 home games during the fall and winter when there really isn't a lot to do in the Buckeye state. Eight home games where many fans might just go to to see the other teams and their players too.

No, it works. See attendence and season ticket numbers pre 2006 and post. Big difference in support when we were "good". See UC football, etc. We have the support but cincy fans are all fair weather.

westofyou
08-19-2009, 05:00 PM
No, it works. See attendence and season ticket numbers pre 2006 and post. Big difference in support when we were "good". See UC football, etc. We have the support but cincy fans are all fair weather.

Fair Weather is a nice way to say bandwagon fan, front runner, Cincinnati Reds fan turnout is the prime example of this in town.

membengal
08-19-2009, 05:10 PM
Maybe that is how Walt is making his decisions with a Jump to Conclusions Mat.

It is crossing my mind. That WOULD explain the Rolen acquisition, one seemingly diametrically at odds with whatever-the-heck that was in their "plan"...

M2
08-19-2009, 06:01 PM
Fair Weather is a nice way to say bandwagon fan, front runner, Cincinnati Reds fan turnout is the prime example of this in town.

I used to use terms like "fair weather fan" or "bandwagon jumper" as pejoratives. Not anymore. This is a diversion and it's supposed to fun.

Staying away when the team is lousy is just a sane, mature response made by people who clearly aren't into throwing away their hard-earned money. More power to them.

westofyou
08-19-2009, 06:28 PM
I used to use terms like "fair weather fan" or "bandwagon jumper" as pejoratives. Not anymore. This is a diversion and it's supposed to fun.

Staying away when the team is lousy is just a sane, mature response made by people who clearly aren't into throwing away their hard-earned money. More power to them.

Worse case scenario is when the band wagon fans become the Cubs/Red Sox/Insert Flavor of the Month fans that act like they stomached the bad run for years, when in reality they were not paying attention, in most cases following other teams experiencing succcess and rolling around in that like a dog on the grass.

That's what irks me about the type

Cyclone792
08-19-2009, 06:33 PM
Worse case scenario is when the band wagon fans become the Cubs/Red Sox/Insert Flavor of the Month fans that act like they stomached the bad run for years, when in reality they were not paying attention, in most cases following other teams experiencing success and rolling around in that like a dog on the grass.

That's what irks me about the type

:lol:

woy, the way you weave words and descriptions just cracks me up sometimes. That line about experiencing other team's successes and rolling around in that like a dog in the grass is just beautiful stuff!

jojo
08-19-2009, 06:56 PM
Worse case scenario is when the band wagon fans become the Cubs/Red Sox/Insert Flavor of the Month fans that act like they stomached the bad run for years, when in reality they were not paying attention, in most cases following other teams experiencing succcess and rolling around in that like a dog on the grass.

That's what irks me about the type

I guess a silver lining is that one hasn't had to tolerate any posers soiling Reds swag in recent years.

I guess GABP is rut-free virgin grassland awaiting the great land grab....

Patrick Bateman
08-19-2009, 07:01 PM
Worse case scenario is when the band wagon fans become the Cubs/Red Sox/Insert Flavor of the Month fans that act like they stomached the bad run for years, when in reality they were not paying attention, in most cases following other teams experiencing succcess and rolling around in that like a dog on the grass.

That's what irks me about the type

Exactly. And I think that those who jump off the Reds wont enjoy the hopefully eventual success as much as those that stay. I think that winning to a degree becomes marginalized.

Big Klu
08-19-2009, 10:13 PM
I mean, if they can have a segment with the freaking "Batting Stance Guy," they can explain the value of acquiring a lot of bases.

That segment is totally devoid of any entertainment value whatsoever. People kept telling me, "Wait until you see this Batting Stance Guy. He's awesome!" I think he's ridiculous.

Jpup
08-19-2009, 10:15 PM
That segment is totally devoid of any entertainment value whatsoever. People kept telling me, "Wait until you see this Batting Stance Guy. He's awesome!" I think he's ridiculous.

It's was mildy entertaining to start with. It's now gotten very old. It's pop culture at it's finest. Text messaging and social sites might not be far behind.

nate
08-20-2009, 09:24 AM
That segment is totally devoid of any entertainment value whatsoever. People kept telling me, "Wait until you see this Batting Stance Guy. He's awesome!" I think he's ridiculous.

I liked his website where you could click on the players and see their stances.

But they keep showing the same "re-creation" over and over.

I'd rather watch an endless loop of Alex Gonzales' "You're watching the Reds on Fox Sports Ohio."

Tom Servo
08-20-2009, 09:47 AM
I'd rather watch an endless loop of Alex Gonzales' "You're watching the Reds on Fox Sports Ohio."
I'd rather watch an endless loop of this over and over.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTQpX--WRz0

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-20-2009, 11:22 AM
I'd rather watch a lineup consisting of Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, Drew Sutton, Laynce Nix, Willie Taveras and Kevin Barker.

Oh wait ...

savafan
08-20-2009, 12:44 PM
It is crossing my mind. That WOULD explain the Rolen acquisition, one seemingly diametrically at odds with whatever-the-heck that was in their "plan"...

You know, people thought it was crazy when he acquired McGwire from Oakland while with St. Louis when the Cards weren't in the playoff race as well...

redsmetz
08-20-2009, 12:47 PM
I'd rather watch a lineup consisting of Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, Drew Sutton, Laynce Nix, Willie Taveras and Kevin Barker.

Oh wait ...

Why is this any surprise to people? Folks keep saying this, but our only starters playing at the moment are Phillips and Votto. Injured are Hernandez, Rolen, Bruce, Taveras (who shouldn't be playing anyway) and Gonzalez is gone. So, of course, with that sort of hit to your line-up you're gong to see a plethora of ML players and bench guys.

blumj
08-20-2009, 01:38 PM
I can testify to the knuckle-dragging qualities of many Red Sox fans. Sports radio around here is terrifying. It's just a bigger fan base, so there's more of everything.

You can actually tell a longtime Sox fan when they begin moaning over the team being down a run or two in the early innings. After winning two World Series in recent years they really need to be smacked into the recognition that they've got to stop acting so doomed.
Oh, come on, those aren't real people on WEEI, it's a spoof of a sports talk radio station.





Isn't it?

membengal
08-20-2009, 02:01 PM
You know, people thought it was crazy when he acquired McGwire from Oakland while with St. Louis when the Cards weren't in the playoff race as well...

You are NOT seriously comparing Scott Rolen with Mark McGwire at the stage of their careers that they were acquired...and, on top of that, in St. Louis the "plan" was not anything like what Walt vomited forth as memorialized in this thread.

savafan
08-20-2009, 03:02 PM
You are NOT seriously comparing Scott Rolen with Mark McGwire at the stage of their careers that they were acquired...and, on top of that, in St. Louis the "plan" was not anything like what Walt vomited forth as memorialized in this thread.

I'm not comparing the two players, I'm comparing the two moves made by the same man in similar situations with two different teams.

membengal
08-20-2009, 03:08 PM
I'm not comparing the two players, I'm comparing the two moves made by the same man in similar situations with two different teams.

I get that, sava.

And, I thought that McGwire was several years younger than Rolen when he was acquired by the Cards, but I see in looking at baseballreference that he was 33.

That said, you cannot make that comparison and limit it to "situations". McGwire was heading into a late-career explosion that was, clearly, PED fueled, and Walt lucked into that.

Rolen, frankly, has offered no evidence that he has a late career surge in him remotely comparable to what McGwire put together. Add in that we are in the post-PED era, and it makes even less sense.