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nate
08-28-2009, 03:53 PM
...for Paul Janish to be the full-time SS next year?

Use any metric or rationale you wish!

Mario-Rijo
08-28-2009, 04:06 PM
...for Paul Janish to be the full-time SS next year?

Use any metric or rationale you wish!

As long as he doesn't change his current approach (only swing when I have to, try to get on base by whatever means necc., and work the hell out of the pitcher all while playing very good defense) then it doesn't have to be much of an improvement.

.240 BA .330 OBP .650-.700 OPS

Assuming of course we add the neccessary offense to make it palatable. But since I doubt that happens he probably can't do enough.

TheNext44
08-28-2009, 04:07 PM
...for Paul Janish to be the full-time SS next year?

Use any metric or rationale you wish!

Using a combination wOBA, OPS, ISOP, ISOD, BABIP, and wRAA, I formulated that Janish would have to hit exactly...

better than he has shown he is capable of hitting, in order to be the full time SS next year. But he might show enough improvement from now until the end of the season.

edabbs44
08-28-2009, 04:27 PM
If they get more offense to put around him, then his numbers can go down.

If the roster stays the same, he needs to put up about a 1.200 OPS.

nate
08-28-2009, 04:30 PM
If they get more offense to put around him, then his numbers can go down.

If the roster stays the same, he needs to put up about a 1.200 OPS.

That shouldn't be a problem, should it?

edabbs44
08-28-2009, 04:32 PM
That shouldn't be a problem, should it?

I think, with a little hard work, he can get into that neighborhood.

RedsManRick
08-28-2009, 04:42 PM
Let's assume he's a +10 fielder. At absolute bare minimum he needs to be a -10 bat, which is something like a .250/.320/.330 line over 600 PA. That would him more or less replacement level. For a league minimum salary and barring better options, that's "acceptable".

If we want to actually compete next year and want more than replacement level, it goes up from there. If he can play above average defense and hit .260/.340/.360, I'd be satisfied.

Of course, right now he's hitting .224/.302/.284, which is just some slugging short of his PECOTA weighted mean projection of .223/.296/.341. I'm not sure we should have too much optimism that he'll be able to hit enough to make his glove worthwhile. The way things look right now, his upside is acceptable stopgap starter, his mid-level is acceptable defensive replacement, and his downside is AAA fodder.

bucksfan2
08-28-2009, 04:47 PM
If Janish can put up an OBP of around .330 the he can become an every day SS as long as he hits in the 8th hole. If Dusty wants him to hit in the 2 hole then he needs to get that OBP up even higher, around the .350 mark.

nate
08-28-2009, 04:51 PM
I think, with a little hard work, he can get into that neighborhood.

Arbitration will probably be a bit rough after that.

Highlifeman21
08-28-2009, 04:54 PM
.350 OBP, don't care about the SLG

jojo
08-28-2009, 05:19 PM
Let's assume he's a +10 fielder. At absolute bare minimum he needs to be a -10 bat, which is something like a .250/.320/.330 line over 600 PA. That would him more or less replacement level. For a league minimum salary and barring better options, that's "acceptable".

Just a quibble...... The above scenario (+10 glove/-10 bat) would make Janish 27.5 runs better than replacement (there is a 20 run difference between average and replacement and playing defense at short is worth an additional 7.5 runs over 600 PAs worth of playing time) or a 2.75 win player.

To be a -10 bat, he'd have to post 600 PAs with a wOBA of roughly .310 (depending upon how he got there, that would translate into an OPS in the .690-.700 range).

I don't think his bat is good enough for him to be an everyday player.

RedsManRick
08-28-2009, 06:03 PM
Just a quibble...... The above scenario (+10 glove/-10 bat) would make Janish 27.5 runs better than replacement (there is a 20 run difference between average and replacement and playing defense at short is worth an additional 7.5 runs over 600 PAs worth of playing time) or a 2.75 win player.

To be a -10 bat, he'd have to post 600 PAs with a wOBA of roughly .310 (depending upon how he got there, that would translate into an OPS in the .690-.700 range).

I don't think his bat is good enough for him to be an everyday player.

Both of those figures were meant to be above replacement. With defense, replacement is average. So he'd be +10 above average/replacement on defense and -10 below replacement in my scenario -- which I suppose still puts him at 7.5 runs due to the positional adjustment.

My OPS figures were a rough approximation, but I think the conclusion is similar. Given that he hits for little power at all (ISO less than .100), he needs to push that average up above .250-260 to get his OBP and SLG to the .340-.350 range and make his bat acceptable.

WebScorpion
09-01-2009, 02:26 AM
At the moment, he is performing WAAAY better (OBP .310 to .258) than Gonzalez did at any time this season. The same goes for Stubbs...he's already outperforming (OBP .281 to .273; OPS .707 to .557) Taveras this season, so the removal of those two was a marked improvement in both our defense AND offense.

I think Janish is at the lower end of acceptable now, as long as he's batting 7th or 8th. If he can get it (his OBP) up to .350 he'll be more palatable as a #2 hitter, but still not ideal. Dickerson's OBP is .373...as far as I'm concerned, you need to beat that to sit at the top of the order in 2010.

mth123
09-01-2009, 03:22 AM
At the moment, he is performing WAAAY better (OBP .310 to .258) than Gonzalez did at any time this season. The same goes for Stubbs...he's already outperforming (OBP .281 to .273; OPS .707 to .557) Taveras this season, so the removal of those two was a marked improvement in both our defense AND offense.

I think Janish is at the lower end of acceptable now, as long as he's batting 7th or 8th. If he can get it (his OBP) up to .350 he'll be more palatable as a #2 hitter, but still not ideal. Dickerson's OBP is .373...as far as I'm concerned, you need to beat that to sit at the top of the order in 2010.

The problem here is that when each of these players is viewed individualy they all could be viewed as "acceptable" with good defense and enough offense to get by. But no team can really afford to carry three or four line-up spots like that. Add the catcher spot to a line-up with Stubbs and Janish and it really leaves the team short. I'd say Stubbs and Dickerson could platoon and provide acceptable lead-off production and that the catching tandem could hit eigth, but even though Janish has been doing well, the Reds will need more offense with those two spots already in the line-up. The team needs to really look to bring in either a SS or a C who can provide offense as well as decent defense. I'm not sure there is money to do either and we may just end-up with this team next year. Bit players to provide LH ABs in LF and another catcher and that just about eats-up whatever money this team has left. Gomes will require $2 Million plus, a left handed counterpart possibly as much and a decent veteran catcher probably in the $2 to 3 Million range as well. Just no money to bring in a big player for one of these spots unless Cordero/Harang/Arroyo are moved.

I've said it in other threads and I become more convinced each day, this team needs a couple top end talents in the rotation and the line-up to move into contention and there is simply no money to acquire any. The best chance that this team realistically has is for Bailey, Cueto and Bruce to become what they were once projected to be. Its probably still a long shot, but its more likely that Bailey becomes an ace than it is that this team would have the combination of money, talent and attraction to acquire and keep one. Its more likely that Bruce becomes the MVP caliber bat that this team needs to propel the line-up with Votto, Rolen and Phillips than it is this team can acquire somebody. Those things happen, and solid role player types like Stubbs, Janish, Arroyo and Harang provide solid support, but if Bailey, Cueto and Bruce become simply role players or less themselves, then the Reds need to upgrade other spots to star caliber players and I just don't see the team being able to do so without a significant financial leap of faith from Cast and the limited partners. The payroll would probably need to jump well over $100 Million to acquire what is needed to go with the guys already here.

camisadelgolf
09-01-2009, 10:46 AM
If he's going to be the #2 hitter, I care a lot more about his OBP than his SLG. The same could be said for Drew Stubbs as long as he's leading off. Therefore, a .340 OBP with a SLG of at least .330 will make me happy.

RedEye
09-01-2009, 11:19 AM
Perhaps this thread should be merged with the "Paul Janish for SS?" thread? Just a thought.