View Full Version : When Does "Small Ball" Type Plays Take Place?
RedLegSuperStar
09-08-2009, 01:02 PM
I am watching the finish of yesterdays "titanic struggle" unfold in the 9th and this team has runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs with Gomes up. Clearly a situation to bunt the runners over especially being down by one run. Gomes I believe strikesout and then Darnell McDonald comes up. I'm sorry you have to bunt the runners over either with Gomes or a pinch hitter. Then you pinch hit for McDonald and put Balentine in to bat with runners at 2nd and 3rd. Bone head plays like this that continues to cost this team Wins. I'll hop off the soap box.
I think Gomes lined out hard to left.
Danny Serafini
09-08-2009, 01:25 PM
I was happy to see him not bunt. He's hitting .313/.382/.550/.932 against lefties this year. I'd rather have him take a hack and try to bring in a couple of runners than burn an out so an inferior hitter can try.
RedLegSuperStar
09-08-2009, 01:42 PM
I think Gomes lined out hard to left.
I think youre right Nate. Point isn't just yesterdays game it is throughout the entire season. This team is playing above the potential we give them granted now but if they do the smaller things that generate a run here and a run there then they need to. This team has enough trouble scoring as it is.
Highlifeman21
09-08-2009, 01:46 PM
I think youre right Nate. Point isn't just yesterdays game it is throughout the entire season. This team is playing above the potential we give them granted now but if they do the smaller things that generate a run here and a run there then they need to. This team has enough trouble scoring as it is.
Why have a slugger bunt?
That's like asking a CEO to perform brain surgery.
RedsManRick
09-08-2009, 01:52 PM
Just curious, what are the chances of scoring at least 1 run with runners on 1st and 2nd and no out compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out?
I know that the overall run expectancies are roughly the same, but down 1 run, I can certainly understand the argument for playing to maximize the chances you tie the game.
However, when it comes to small ball, people often discount the value of the out they're giving away (as an opportunity to drive in the run) and overestimate the increased likelihood of scoring.
Given that the Reds already had a guy on 2B who could score on a single, I wouldn't want to take the bat out of the hands of a guy who could drive in both runners. Gomes ended up killing the ball; he just hit right at the LF.
westofyou
09-08-2009, 01:58 PM
Play for the win on the road, the tie at home.
Play power at Coors, don't let gorillas bunt.
Always Red
09-08-2009, 02:06 PM
The Reds did try to play small ball as soon as Gomes lined out hard (it was a rocket) to LF. They gave Gomes a chance to mash, and he did, but right at someone.
It was apparent to me and the group watching with me that McDonald was going to strike out on the offspeed stuff. So either Dusty sent them, or they decided on their own to double steal- Rolen gets thrown out at 2B, Phillips safe at 3B. Now there are 2 outs. For nothing- no gain of any kind. You still need to tie the game first, right?
Now McDonald has to hit the ball, and bunting is not an option. He flailed, Reds lose, and I was pulling my hair out. Whether or not Drew Stubbs is going to be any good or not doesn't make me pull my hair out, but this kind of stuff does.
I think small ball and overthinking killed the Reds rally in the 9th yesterday.
I was fine with Gomes swinging.
What I didn't agree with was the double steal. I wonder if Dusty figured the catcher would attempt to throw out Phillips at 3rd and Rolen wouldn't have trouble advancing. Dusty gambled and the Rockies took advantage.
OnBaseMachine
09-08-2009, 03:14 PM
I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.
I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.
Morning paper put the credit for the steal onto Phillips. He had the green light and took it. Rolen followed on his own and Dusty gave the Rockies credit for a fine play.
While watching it, I was grousing about the play till I noticed that the ball nearly ended up in centerfield. Of course if that happens the score is tied and they have a runner at third with one out and it all looks brilliant. I calmed down a bit.
No way do you take the bat out of Gomes hand and have him or anybody else bunt. Giving away outs is bad.
I had no problem with any of the plays in the 9th. The catcher's decision to throw to second was the game breaker....as 9 out of 10 times they throw to 3rd on that. If Phillips beat the throw, we'd be clamoring why Rolen was standing on 1st.
The ball obviously wasn't bouncing the Reds way yesterday, and it did a LOT during the 7 game streak. It happens.
I saw enough good things, like Homer's new found poise continuing on the mound, to not lose sleep over it.
Chip R
09-08-2009, 03:33 PM
I was fine with Gomes swinging away. That was clearly the right call, IMO. What I didn't like was the double steal. That decision potentially cost the Reds the game.
Yep. Phillips could have scored from 2nd on a single to tie it up.
AtomicDumpling
09-08-2009, 03:56 PM
Just curious, what are the chances of scoring at least 1 run with runners on 1st and 2nd and no out compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out?
I know that the overall run expectancies are roughly the same, but down 1 run, I can certainly understand the argument for playing to maximize the chances you tie the game.
However, when it comes to small ball, people often discount the value of the out they're giving away (as an opportunity to drive in the run) and overestimate the increased likelihood of scoring.
Given that the Reds already had a guy on 2B who could score on a single, I wouldn't want to take the bat out of the hands of a guy who could drive in both runners. Gomes ended up killing the ball; he just hit right at the LF.
I agree. And they also overestimate the chances of executing the bunt play successfully. Lots of times you end up giving away the out without even advancing the runner.
I would not have one of my hottest hitters intentionally make an out -- especially when the tying run is already in scoring position.
Chip R
09-08-2009, 04:21 PM
Morning paper put the credit for the steal onto Phillips. He had the green light and took it. Rolen followed on his own and Dusty gave the Rockies credit for a fine play.
It's not Dusty's job to be as confused as Brandon. If Dusty gives the green light to his baserunners, he can give the red light to them too.
RedLegSuperStar
09-08-2009, 05:18 PM
Why have a slugger bunt?
That's like asking a CEO to perform brain surgery.
Why double steal with a guy who can't make contact?
I guess it's easy to say that knowing Gomes was out after swinging. But if he bunted and move the runners over and McDonald or who ever had a hit that drove in one or both runs then Gomes is credited for leading them. Is the team trying every way to win? I know try are not trying to lose.. Just my opinion.. Obviously I'm in the minority on this subject and that's fine. I just don't understand avoiding a double play versus playing for a hit. On average someone gets a hit what? 25% of the time?
Raisor
09-08-2009, 05:23 PM
Why double steal with a guy who can't make contact?
I guess it's easy to say that knowing Gomes was out after swinging. But if he bunted and move the runners over and McDonald or who ever had a hit that drove in one or both runs then Gomes is credited for leading them. Is the team trying every way to win? I know try are not trying to lose.. Just my opinion.. Obviously I'm in the minority on this subject and that's fine. I just don't understand avoiding a double play versus playing for a hit. On average someone gets a hit what? 25% of the time?
I'd think that the way Gomes has been hitting he'd have much more of a shot then McDonald or a PH would.
Gomes has the best OPS on the team since the All Star break. I'd much rather go with him then with McDonald or anyone else on the bench.
westofyou
09-08-2009, 05:46 PM
Why double steal with a guy who can't make contact?
I guess it's easy to say that knowing Gomes was out after swinging. But if he bunted and move the runners over and McDonald or who ever had a hit that drove in one or both runs then Gomes is credited for leading them. Is the team trying every way to win? I know try are not trying to lose.. Just my opinion.. Obviously I'm in the minority on this subject and that's fine. I just don't understand avoiding a double play versus playing for a hit. On average someone gets a hit what? 25% of the time?
LH reliever and you want Gomes to bunt?
Why force a player to do something he's only done once in his career? yes gomes has 1 SH in his career, he kills LH's and has been hot.
As for the double steal that was a players call, they blew it... it happens. But giving away an out was not a sure way to score in that situation either. especially trying to give away an out with Gomes as the giver.
westofyou
09-08-2009, 05:50 PM
It's not Dusty's job to be as confused as Brandon. If Dusty gives the green light to his baserunners, he can give the red light to them too.
Dumb move by Brandon, if he wants to be a leader then he has to exhibit some baseball acumen now and then.
As for Dusty clamping him down, he might just do that now.
Highlifeman21
09-08-2009, 05:56 PM
Why double steal with a guy who can't make contact?
I guess it's easy to say that knowing Gomes was out after swinging. But if he bunted and move the runners over and McDonald or who ever had a hit that drove in one or both runs then Gomes is credited for leading them. Is the team trying every way to win? I know try are not trying to lose.. Just my opinion.. Obviously I'm in the minority on this subject and that's fine. I just don't understand avoiding a double play versus playing for a hit. On average someone gets a hit what? 25% of the time?
Gotta put players in a situation to succeed.
Having Gomes bunt is the exact opposite of that sentiment.
And as for the double steal with Mayor McCheese at the plate, that was Phillips and Rolen doing something on their own, rather than The Dusty running us out of an inning.
The better play would have been to PH Mayor McCheese, IMO.
Gotta put players in a situation to succeed.
Having Gomes bunt is the exact opposite of that sentiment.
And as for the double steal with Mayor McCheese at the plate, that was Phillips and Rolen doing something on their own, rather than The Dusty running us out of an inning.
The better play would have been to PH Mayor McCheese, IMO.
I'm all for Brandon trying to steal 3rd w/ one out if he gets a fantastic jump....which he had. We loved it when Eric Davis and Barry Larkin did it over and over again. The combination of Rolen getting a very bad jump, and Ianetta taking advantage of that for the unexpected throw to 2nd, make the difference. If he throws to 3rd, they are both safe and the Reds chances to tie or win just increase by 500%
If you are playing for the win on the road....depending on McDonald and Miller/ Balentien to come up with consecutive hits or EBH's....not good odds.
westofyou
09-08-2009, 06:40 PM
I'm all for Brandon trying to steal 3rd w/ one out if he gets a fantastic jump....which he had. We loved it when Eric Davis and Barry Larkin did it over and over again. The combination of Rolen getting a very bad jump, and Ianetta taking advantage of that for the unexpected throw to 2nd, make the difference. If he throws to 3rd, they are both safe and the Reds chances to tie or win just increase by 500%
If you are playing for the win on the road....depending on McDonald and Miller/ Balentien to come up with consecutive hits or EBH's....not good odds.
Larkin was great at it (90 steals to 12 CS) of 3rd, Brandon... 10/5 the past 2 years.
Morning paper put the credit for the steal onto Phillips. He had the green light and took it. Rolen followed on his own and Dusty gave the Rockies credit for a fine play.
I saw where Dusty said that, but I personally don't believe him.
I would have liked to have seen someone ask Rolen in the post-game his thoughts on that steal. Not saying it's an impossibility, or that Rolen simply didn't just make an aggressive, bone-head play; but besides not being very fast to begin with, the reaction time involved in seeing the guy ahead of you taking off and then, all of a sudden, deciding to take off yourself is not only going to cause a bad jump (for even a speedy runner), but guaranteed to get you nailed. I just don't see Rolen doing that on his own.
Yeah - was a great heads up play by the Rockies to go after Rolen. Logical too. But IMO, Baker had his hand in that one, regardless of what he says.
No way do you take the bat out of Gomes hand and have him or anybody else bunt. Giving away outs is bad.
Yeah. It was a good AB for Gomes. He ran the count out to 3-2, so he had to be protective of the plate, and made sound contact. It just didn't happen.
McDonald's AB was terrible though.
penantboundreds
09-08-2009, 09:18 PM
All is good, and Brandon takes so much heat it is ridiculous. He had a great break and would have had third easy.
And I'm not mad that Rolen followed Brandon, my only negative would be:
When someone is going to, or thinking about stealing third, the said player stealing third should be able to give some kind of sign to the guy on first thus allowing as good if not just a tad worse of a break on the pitcher.
Screwball
09-09-2009, 01:24 AM
It's not Dusty's job to be as confused as Brandon.
I hope this was a Spinal Tap reference. If so, :clap:.
WVRedsFan
09-09-2009, 01:25 AM
My take? McDonald shouldn't be on the roster, much less in the game. Dusty has confidence in some doozies, doesn't he. Gomes was used the right way. The double steal was unfortunate, but we still had Brandon at third and then no one who could handle the pitcher to get him in from third. Dusty should have PH with Balentein, who mgiht have done the same, but it was a better chance. With this team, you can't afford to give up any outs and the Reds seemed to in that inning.
Chip R
09-09-2009, 09:16 AM
I hope this was a Spinal Tap reference. If so, :clap:.
:)
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