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View Full Version : So, anyone still think Arroyo's not worth $10-12M?!?!?



BLEEDS
09-15-2009, 12:50 AM
String of 10 consecutive "Quality Starts" including the last 9 being 7+ innings, and the last 7 being 2 runs or less...

ERA now down to 4.07, WHIP of 1.32.

3 CG's, two of which were shutouts, and the other he gave up one run.
He lost one game where he went 8 innings and gave up one run.
Two other games he gave up 2 runs and got a no decision, and another he gave up 1 and got a no decision as well. All three of these were in the last 4 games going into tonight.
3 other LOSSES where he gave up 3 runs in 6+ innings, and a no decision where he gave up 3 runs - only one earned.
On the contrary, only two of his wins have come when he's given up 3+ runs
With any offense, he might have 16-18 wins by now versus 10 or less losses.

Yeah, I guess us "small market teams" can't afford to pay guys like this $11M or so.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Captain Hook
09-15-2009, 01:32 AM
If Aaroyo could pitch like he has in the second half the past few years for an entire season he would be worth more.The problem with him is that he is only worth the money being spent on him for the half of the season that the Reds as a team have made unimportant.If the team was contending right now Bronson would be loved and all of his 1st half failures would be forgotten.He had his hand in the Reds fall in the standings though so it's not so easy to forget.I suppose your right though and I'll still take him for the money with the hopes he can put a whole season together pitching like he is right now.

Ghosts of 1990
09-15-2009, 11:17 AM
He's too inconsistent. That is a HUGE contract to give to someone like Arroyo

BLEEDS
09-15-2009, 11:23 AM
He's too inconsistent. That is a HUGE contract to give to someone like Arroyo

Good supporting arguments; hard to argue against all those solid points. :rolleyes:

By the way, if you can't tell, I was being sarcastic... :)


Yes, he's inconsistent, but every pitcher is, he's just markedly so before/after the ASB.

Still, when you put his full season numbers under the microscope, you see that they match up VERY well, and are at or more times above "League Average" and his durability is a huge plus for a team chock full of young inconsistent pitchers and a bullpen that isn't good at taking a lot of innings.

You add all that value up, and IMO it's worth "league average SP FA money" whatever that is, it is for sure above $10M per season.

I've yet to hear any good arguments that the Reds shouldn't spend "league average SP FA money" on a SP FA.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
09-15-2009, 11:30 AM
Good supporting arguments; hard to argue against all those solid points. :rolleyes:

By the way, if you can't tell, I was being sarcastic... :)


Yes, he's inconsistent, but every pitcher is, he's just markedly so before/after the ASB.

Still, when you put his full season numbers under the microscope, you see that they match up VERY well, and are at or more times above "League Average" and his durability is a huge plus for a team chock full of young inconsistent pitchers and a bullpen that isn't good at taking a lot of innings.

You add all that value up, and IMO it's worth "league average SP FA money" whatever that is, it is for sure above $10M per season.

I've yet to hear any good arguments that the Reds shouldn't spend "league average SP FA money" on a SP FA.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Sorry man. It's early and I don't feel like pulling out statistics on every post. I've watched a lot of Arroyo since 2006. And $10-$12 million is a humungous number for a guy who pitches the way he does every few starts. You could take that and a little extra for $13-$15 million and find one of the best starters available in the game.

malcontent
09-15-2009, 11:59 AM
I'm happy with what I've been seeing.

Plus, it's actually interesting to watch him pitch. Much more so than say, Harang, whom I wish they could have moved.

mroby85
09-15-2009, 02:03 PM
All those numbers take him to a 4.07, so no, he's still not worth it.

BLEEDS
09-15-2009, 03:30 PM
Sorry man. It's early and I don't feel like pulling out statistics on every post. I've watched a lot of Arroyo since 2006. And $10-$12 million is a humungous number for a guy who pitches the way he does every few starts. You could take that and a little extra for $13-$15 million and find one of the best starters available in the game.

That's the fallacy. Please find me some $13-15M guys, in FA, that are going to sign with the Reds, in FA.

We had to pay CoCo - who some argue isn't in the "elite" category of closers - and make him the highest paid Closer in the game in order for him to come to Cincinnati.

I'll help you with the info gathering; here's the list of potential FA SP's after this season:

Brandon Backe HOU
Miguel Batista SEA
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA
Daniel Cabrera ARZ
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras COL
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton COL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Jon Garland * LAD
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton HOU
Rich Harden CHC
Tim Hudson * ATL
Randy Johnson SF
John Lackey LAA
Cliff Lee * PHI
Braden Looper * MIL
Jason Marquis COL
Kevin Millwood * TEX
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * LAD
Carl Pavano MIN
Brad Penny SF
Odalis Perez WAS
Andy Pettitte NYY
Joel Pineiro STL
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz STL
Jarrod Washburn DET
Brandon Webb * ARZ
Todd Wellemeyer STL


Please tell me which of these guys would sign with the Reds for $13-15M, and are one of the best starters available in the game.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Griffey012
09-15-2009, 04:09 PM
It's too bad we can never use Arroyo's stellar 2nd half's while in a playoff race.

vottofan4life
09-15-2009, 09:17 PM
Reds acquire Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott
Orioles acquire Juan Francisco, Jared Burton, Matt Maloney

Reds acquire Jose Reyes
Mets acquire Yonder Alonso

Reds acquire Javier Vasquez, Phil Coke
Braves acquire Bronson Arroyo, Melky Cabrera
Yankees acquire Chris Dickerson, Aaron Harang, Matt Diaz


Speculation Trades
Red Sox acquire Alfonso Soriano,Derek Lee,Kevin Gregg
Cubs acquire Mike Lowell,JD Drew, Jonathan Papelbon

Tigers acquire Milton Bradley
Cubs acquire Magglio Ordonez

Giants acquire Vernon Wells
Blue Jays acquire Aaron Rowand

gedred69
09-15-2009, 09:45 PM
It's too bad we can never use Arroyo's stellar 2nd half's while in a playoff race.

Agreed. I look at Arroyo like, 200+ innings year after year, 13-15 wins every year on a crappy team, and dominating in the 2nd half of the season, when a decent team hopes to be in the hunt. Those are the players often referred to as "money" players. Who would we rather have on the mound if the Reds were still in it right now? (Don't answer with pipe dream pitchers' names this team would never afford).

Captain Hook
09-15-2009, 09:52 PM
Reds acquire Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott
Orioles acquire Juan Francisco, Jared Burton, Matt Maloney

Reds acquire Jose Reyes
Mets acquire Yonder Alonso

Reds acquire Javier Vasquez, Phil Coke
Braves acquire Bronson Arroyo, Melky Cabrera
Yankees acquire Chris Dickerson, Aaron Harang, Matt Diaz


Speculation Trades
Red Sox acquire Alfonso Soriano,Derek Lee,Kevin Gregg
Cubs acquire Mike Lowell,JD Drew, Jonathan Papelbon

Tigers acquire Milton Bradley
Cubs acquire Magglio Ordonez

Giants acquire Vernon Wells
Blue Jays acquire Aaron Rowand

What does any of that have to do with Arroyo?:confused:

Kingspoint
09-15-2009, 10:27 PM
Arroyo=New Shortstop

BLEEDS
09-16-2009, 12:27 PM
It's too bad we can never use Arroyo's stellar 2nd half's while in a playoff race.

Yes, and for some reason MANY people in RZ, particularly in the ORG, seem to use that as a strike against him.

WE SUCK, so his 2nd half is worthless.

Kinda reminds me of the people who complain about Homeruns with nobody on base. Like it's the guys fault at the plate that the people in front of him SUCK and can't get on base.

Arroyo would be getting all sorts of praise if we were in a playoff hunt and he'd just had a streak of 10 Quality Starts, etc, etc...

Unfortunately our offense sucks to high heaven so we've been out of it for awhile so it's all going for naught.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Captain Hook
09-16-2009, 12:45 PM
Yes, and for some reason MANY people in RZ, particularly in the ORG, seem to use that as a strike against him.

WE SUCK, so his 2nd half is worthless.

Kinda reminds me of the people who complain about Homeruns with nobody on base. Like it's the guys fault at the plate that the people in front of him SUCK and can't get on base.

Arroyo would be getting all sorts of praise if we were in a playoff hunt and he'd just had a streak of 10 Quality Starts, etc, etc...

Unfortunately our offense sucks to high heaven so we've been out of it for awhile so it's all going for naught.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

One question about Arroyo is if he would still have great second halves is he was pitching on a contending club.It doesn't seem like he gets it together until we are out of it.It has to be a little easier to pitch in meaningless games opposed to pitching in pressure situations when the play offs are on the line.It would be nice to find out the answer to that question next year.

Kingspoint
09-16-2009, 07:05 PM
One question about Arroyo is if he would still have great second halves is he was pitching on a contending club.It doesn't seem like he gets it together until we are out of it.It has to be a little easier to pitch in meaningless games opposed to pitching in pressure situations when the play offs are on the line.It would be nice to find out the answer to that question next year.

And, a question that certainly is real.