John Fay & His Money

[RedLegSuperStar]

Fay:

I’ve got left-hander Matt Maloney as the leader in the clubhouse for the race for the fifth starter next year.

Maloney went seven innings Friday. He allowed two runs on six hits, walked none and struck out four. He’s 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Home runs were a big problem in his first stint with the Reds. He’s only allowed one over his last 17 innings.

He admits next year is on his mind.

“That’s the plan,” he said. “I want to finish the year strong and show them I’m capable of pitching here, used it build on for next year.”

The win was fifth in a row and ninth in 11 games for the Reds. They are 22-10 over their last 32 games.

Right now, my fifth starter standings are:

1. Maloney

2. Justin Lehr

3. Travis Wood

4. Micah Owings

How do you see it?

[RedsManRick]

I agree Maloney is the leader, but I hope Lehr isn't even part of the conversation. Any of the success he's had has been based on wholly unsustainable hit and hr rates. Without strikeouts or world-class control, he's got no shot of long term success. Owings would be my #2 candidate and Wood my #3.

[mth123]

Kip Wells???

[Tom Servo]

After a few years of 'standing pat' with our starters and battles for the #5 spot that end in disaster, I'm still in favor of picking up someone like Doug Davis and going with:

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Doug Davis (or another free agent)
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey

If that doesn't (and likely won't) happen, I do like Maloney so far. I'd keep Owings in the bullpen and see if Kip Wells would agree to a minor league deal.

[WVRedsFan]

Kip Wells???

Exactly. I'd place Wells ahead of Lehr and Owings. In fact, I send Lehr to AAA and maybe try to trade Owings. Wells and Maloney have (in this short period of time) have emerged as better pitchers.

[Kc61]

Exactly. I'd place Wells ahead of Lehr and Owings. In fact, I send Lehr to AAA and maybe try to trade Owings. Wells and Maloney have (in this short period of time) have emerged as better pitchers.

I agree that, as of now, it would be between Wells and Maloney. (Odd that Wells wasn't mentioned in the article.) Maloney is a lefty and has promise. Good minor league track record and seems ready for the show. But Wells throws many more ground balls and is more experienced.

I think they are both decent alternatives as fifth starter. Particularly since Volquez could always show up at the end of the season.

If I were Walt, I'd probably roll the dice on the starters currently in the organization. I'd be focused on LF, SS, C, and perhaps adding another good reliever to fill the spot vacated by Weathers.

[VR]

It would be nice to find a ground ball pitcher or two with the ridiculously good infield they will throw out there next year.

The outfield can cover lots of ground as well....but no plays on this long flyballs that we see out of most of the starters.

[BCubb2003]

There's no such thing as a fifth starter. Just sixes and sevens coming and going.

[TheNext44]

I can't believe we are debating whose higher on the depth chart, Lehr or Wells.

And I thought Bush or Kerry was a rough choice. :rolleyes:

[HokieRed]

I'd like to sign Jason Marquis, but if the question is about the in-house candidate I'd say it's between Maloney and Wells. From what we've seen of Owings in relief, it looks like he's got a good chance to be a contributor there, maybe the kind of very valuable guy who can pitch multi-innings and thus save some other arms.

[RedsManRick]

We already have a Jason Marquis. His name is Micah Owings...

[WVRedsFan]

We already have a Jason Marquis. His name is Micah Owings...

Point well taken.

[HokieRed]

I wish Micah Owings did resemble Jason Marquis; if he did, we might be close to contention this year. Marquis has a 4.47 ERA over his career, 3.98 this year; he's averaged 197 plus innings over the last six years; he's had HR's per 9 of 1.0/.8/and .7 in the last three years, two of them in Wrigley, this year in Coors. Owings has a 5.02, a 1.3 HR/9 and has averaged 125 innings a year for three years. The two are not even remotely comparable. Marquis is a solid middle of the rotation starter; Owings has done nothing to establish himself as a starting pitcher.

[Spring~Fields]

I thought I would put this here because it is a John Fay article and a John Fay thread.

Baker on coaches returning: Why not?
Posted by jfay September 27th, 2009, 1:08 pm

Dusty Baker said the future of the coaching has not been discussed yet, but it sounds like he’s in favor of bringing them back.

“Why not?” he said. “We’ve operated almost the entire year without the team that we expected to have.”

Most susceptible when a team struggles are pitching and hitting coach. In the Reds case, that’s pitching coach Dick Pole and hitting Brook Jacoby.

In Pole’s case, the Reds are seventh in the National League in ERA at 4.20. They finished 13th last year at 4.55.

In Jacoby’s case, the Reds are 15th in the NL in batting average at .247. That’s the same average as last year.

“I look at runs more than average,” Baker said. “The Astros are hitting higher than us. But we’ve outscored them.”

The Reds are 11th in runs. They were 12th last year.

But because of injuries players who haven’t hit much — Drew Sutton (.222), Adam Rosales (.204), Craig Tatum (.167), Corky Miller (.192) — have spent a lot of time on the roster.

“It’s been going on all year,” Baker said. “Edwin (Encarnacion) went out in April. Joey Votto missed time. (Jay) Bruce. Ramon (Hernandez) was a bit part of our offense. He was our RBI man. Willy (Taveras) dealt with a wrist and two bad legs.

“And offense was a bit of a question coming in.”

[dougdirt]

“I look at runs more than average,” Baker said.

So either way our offense has sucked this year.... right?

[Tom Servo]

Blurgh. Both the old Dick Pole and Brook Jacoby need to go.

[PuffyPig]

Fay:

I’ve got left-hander Matt Maloney as the leader in the clubhouse for the race for the fifth starter next year.

Maloney went seven innings Friday. He allowed two runs on six hits, walked none and struck out four. He’s 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Home runs were a big problem in his first stint with the Reds. He’s only allowed one over his last 17 innings.

He admits next year is on his mind.

“That’s the plan,” he said. “I want to finish the year strong and show them I’m capable of pitching here, used it build on for next year.”

The win was fifth in a row and ninth in 11 games for the Reds. They are 22-10 over their last 32 games.

Right now, my fifth starter standings are:

1. Maloney

2. Justin Lehr

3. Travis Wood

4. Micah Owings

How do you see it?

I doubt that Lehr is on any list for next year.

Maloney, Wood and Owings all have a chance, depends on how they perform.

Wells could easily be in the mix too.

[dfs]

I agree that, as of now, it would be between Wells and Maloney. (Odd that Wells wasn't mentioned in the article.) Maloney is a lefty and has promise. Good minor league track record and seems ready for the show. But Wells throws many more ground balls and is more experienced.

I believe what tips the balance in favor of Maloney is that he will be out of options next year, so they will have to keep him on the 25 man roster. All he's ever done is start.

If I'm wrong with that, I would love corrections.

[Will M]

i like Maloney however i really wonder if his flyball tendencies & GABP isn't a Miltonesque disaster waiting to happen.

[SMcGavin]

Wells isn't under Reds control in 2010 is he? Maloney has to be the guy at this point. The discussion that needs to take place is whether or not the free agent SPs out there are a big enough upgrade over Maloney to justify the cost of acquiring them.

I would guess the Reds will bring in someone outside the organization. If they were considering Maloney for 2010 it'd make sense to get him as many starts as possible so you can evaluate him. But journeymen like Lehr and Wells both got late-season call ups before Maloney did. I've never gotten the impression that the Jocketty brain trust thought much of him.

[dfs]

Wells isn't under Reds control in 2010 is he?

I'm confident that if the reds went to Wells or Lehr and said, you are first in line for the fifth starter slot next year, and we'll release you by June if you haven't had 5 starts, either of them would re-up right away.

[LoganBuck]

John Fay can worry about his money, my questions begin and end with Aaron Harang. He isn't right. We can sugar coat his August numbers, but we did the same with his numbers from last September. The on the surface the results were similar. When I see the names Lehr, Wells, Maloney, Owings thrown around, I get more worried about Aaron Harang. The Reds have to hope that he has worked through his problems or 2010 will be the same as 2009, 2008, 2007, etc, etc.

You still have to worry about growing pains from Bailey and Cueto, and then the eventual enigma that will be Edinson Volquez. The Reds need a more certain fifth starter than the list of ifs they currently have in house. You don't get to play the Pirates one out of every three games next season. I am not sure the Reds can afford to be sprinkling parsley on a plate that is still missing potatoes.

[TRF]

2010 is a lost season for Volquez. Even IF he comes back, it likely won't be until mid to late August with mixed results at best. He'll hurt the Reds as much as help them in 2010.

That makes the Rotation Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and the fifth starter. Maloney has to be the front runner barring acquisition. Being LH certainly helps his case, and he's pitched well in Sept. And not Luke Hudson well either. Only the 1 HR allowed over his last 17 innings. He isn't the K machine he was in the minors, but if he can keep that K/9 above 6.00, that's damn solid.

[LoganBuck]

2010 is a lost season for Volquez. Even IF he comes back, it likely won't be until mid to late August with mixed results at best. He'll hurt the Reds as much as help them in 2010.

That makes the Rotation Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey and the fifth starter. Maloney has to be the front runner barring acquisition. Being LH certainly helps his case, and he's pitched well in Sept. And not Luke Hudson well either. Only the 1 HR allowed over his last 17 innings. He isn't the K machine he was in the minors, but if he can keep that K/9 above 6.00, that's damn solid.

I can't take that uncertainty. Maloney hasn't shown me anything this September, I have watched or listened to all his games. I get the impression he is getting by, more that succeeding. His line suggest he is doing well, but aside from a Colorado team that hadn't seen him before, I don't think he has done anything that stands out from the rest of the pack. I certainly don't want to go into next season with Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney. If Harang/Bailey/Cueto/Maloney falter where do you turn? Kip Wells? The only certainty is Arroyo, and half this board loathes his existence on the roster.

He will start against Chris Carpenter on Thursday afternoon. Which will most likely be another low intensity outing.

Eventually (Hopefully) the Reds will have to work Volquez back in.

I think the fifth starter spot currently looks like a plate full of tricolored lima beans. No matter what you pick it will taste bad.

[dfs]

I think the fifth starter spot currently looks like a plate full of tricolored lima beans. No matter what you pick it will taste bad.

I'm not so much disagreeing with you as I am asking...what would you have them do?
For 2010 you have Arroyo/Harang/Cueto/Bailey/Detritus
and for 2011 you have Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/Bailey/Volquez

Do you spend your offseason effort looking for a free agent pitcher?
Do you do anything about left field?
Do you do anything about shortstop?
Do you do anything about catcher?

My understanding is that they are at their payroll ceiling.

Given the needs of this team and the likelihood of a postseason appearance next year and the other needs, I'm not convinced improving the rotation is an off season priority.

[HokieRed]

2010: Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Marquis.
2011: Halladay, Bailey, Cueto, Marquis, Volquez.

[LoganBuck]

I'm not so much disagreeing with you as I am asking...what would you have them do?
For 2010 you have Arroyo/Harang/Cueto/Bailey/Detritus
and for 2011 you have Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/Bailey/Volquez

Do you spend your offseason effort looking for a free agent pitcher?
Do you do anything about left field?
Do you do anything about shortstop?
Do you do anything about catcher?

My understanding is that they are at their payroll ceiling.

Given the needs of this team and the likelihood of a postseason appearance next year and the other needs, I'm not convinced improving the rotation is an off season priority.

Standing still is not an option. They tried that this past offseason the results are not satisfactory. They need a pitcher, a cleanup hitter, and a shortstop.

Maloney, Gomes, and Janish do not pass the test.