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nemesis
10-09-2009, 06:36 PM
It doesn't seem to matter how many good things the kid has done in his career. He continues to be defined by his inablity to walk at an "acceptible" rate to satisfy most RZer's. So I did some in depth research to figure out where I stand on the kid and here is what I came up with.

At 18 - 19 he started in GCL Rookie Ball.

His line was:

.280 .305 .407 for a .712 OPS

He was promoted to Billings for a few games and produced a line of:

.333 .333 .417 for a .750 OPS

Combined between the 2 levels his totals were:

.294 .314 .408 for a .722 OPS

He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games / 10.9 AB's / 3.15 Hits
He averaged 1 RBI every 7 AB's or 1.68 games - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 9 games or 37.33 AB's
He averaged 1 K every 5.21 AB's or 19.2% of his AB's

The next year at Dayton his first full season of baseball at 19 - 20

His line was:

.268 .301 .463 for a .764 OPS (.042 Higher)


He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games (Again) / 10.7 AB's (.2 Lower)/ 2.86 Hits (.29 Lwr)
He averaged 1 RBI every 6.19 AB's (.81 Lwr) 1.50 games (.18 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 5.87 games (3.13 Lwr) or every 24.22 AB's (12.11 Lwr)
He averaged 1 K every 3.46 AB's (1.75 more) or 28.9% of his AB's (9.7% Higher)

Everything improved but his K rate which was dramatically worse. Being his first full season on pro ball fatigue coulda had alot to with it. He had 316 additional AB's than the previous year.

At 20 - 21 he advanced to High A Sarasota a hitters nightmare.

His line was:

.277 .303 .496 for a .799 OPS

Just for comparison Joey Votto at 21 - 22 posted a line of:

.256 .330 .425 for a .755 OPS with a K rate of 23.6% or every 4.23 AB's

Francisco's season was:

He averaged 1 XBH every 2.12 games (.58 Lwr) / 8.92 AB's (1.78 Lwr)/ 2.38 Hits (.48 Lwr)
He averaged 1 RBI every 5.82 AB's (.37 Lwr) 1.38 games (.12 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 6.68 games (.81 Worse) or every 28.15 AB's (3.93 Worse)
He averaged 1 K every 4.35 AB's (.89 Lwr) or 23% of his AB's (5.9% Lwr)

He hit 23 HR's in 2007 vs 25 in 2006 but had 34 2B's vs 21. He also had 2 addtional RBI at 92 to 90 in in 8 less games in 18 less AB's...

Everything once again improved in a much tougher Leauge except for his BB Rate which dropped. But the improvement in his K rate as well as Slugging % (.36 Better in FSL) was above the drop in BB's. Also note he just barely struck out less % and AB wise than Votto did when Francisco was a year younger.


This year as a 21 - 22 year old he played at 3 levels AA AAA and MLB.

His combined line for all 3 levels including the AAA playoffs was:

.301 (.24 Higher) .332 (.29 Higher) .526 (.30 Higher) for a .852 OPS (.53 Higher)

He averaged 1 XBH every 2.10 games (.02 Lwr) / 8.53 AB's (.39 Lwr)/ 2.56 Hits (.18 Higher)
He averaged 1 RBI every 5.44 AB's (.38 Lwr) 1.34 games (.04 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 5.22 games (1.46 Higher) or every 20.9 AB's (5.96 Better)
He averaged 1 K every 4.79 AB's (.64 Lwr) or 20.9% of his AB's (2.1% Lwr)

Once again improved in every single catagory. He put the ball in play 447 times this year for a .385 BABIP a .676 SLG with BABIP and he only hit into 10 DP's all year. In 2008 it was .364 in 2007 it was .383. He is legit. Sure he doesn't put up sexy OBP numbers. He is what he is though. A kid with 50 HR potiential who knows how to drive in runs and will end up a .280 to .300 hitter. I'd take a .315 -.325 OBP for 35 HR's and 110 RBI's. He has adjusted and improved at every level. I don't think he will be a case of the league figuring him out. I think he figures out the league and dominates. If you keep in mind he has always been 1 to 2 years behind the pitching talent he has faced but continued to improve. One last little stat for you. His OPS by level as my last showing of his progress.

GCL .712
PIO .750
MWL .764
FSL .799
SOU .818
INT .982
MLB 1.139

Isn't this what you look for in a true prospect? Improvement in all aspects of his game? Rising to the challenge of a harder level? Keep in mind he wont even be 23 until almost the All Star Break next year. I expect huge numbers out of Juan next year be it at AAA or MLB. Why? because he has proven for 3 years in a row he is a hard worker who makes adjustment to improve.

texasdave
10-09-2009, 06:54 PM
I am not sure why he hasn't drawn more walks. Obviously the times I saw him on television were limited to about 20 AB. But he seemed to work the count and didn't swing at just anything. I guess numbers don't lie. But he seemed to have a measure of discipline about him.

roby
10-09-2009, 07:21 PM
Francisco should definitely be in on the left field competition next year.

gedred69
10-09-2009, 09:42 PM
He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.

nemesis
10-09-2009, 11:20 PM
He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.

WHy can't he be the next Ryan Howard?

Mutaman
10-09-2009, 11:55 PM
He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.

Absolutely no comparison. This kid can hit anything, fastballs or breaking balls. Plus its obvious from watching his at bats in September that he can be as selective as you want him to be.

No way they keep Francisco off the team next year. He'll be Rolen's caddie and the first Pinch hitter off the bench.

Jefferson24
10-10-2009, 01:10 AM
I'm already catching myself getting excited about next year. Is that wrong?

Ghosts of 1990
10-10-2009, 05:02 PM
I'm already catching myself getting excited about next year. Is that wrong?

I said the same thing yesterday.... haha

nmculbreth
10-10-2009, 05:26 PM
WHy can't he be the next Ryan Howard?

Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=howard001rya

gedred69
10-15-2009, 09:40 PM
Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=howard001rya

Ahhhhh! Sanity. Please, please, please don't rush this guy. Being "Rolen's Caddy" and the "1st pinch hitter off the bench" will not give him what he needs to become the next "Ryan Howard".

Plus Plus
10-16-2009, 12:15 AM
Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=howard001rya

+1

Leave him in AAA to learn how to walk, and then send him up to the big leagues to hit more 496 foot homers.

urdun
10-20-2009, 06:34 PM
If he continued his selectivity that he showed in his brief stint then great i can live with it. But I'm sure once he "thinks he has made it" you'll see the real Juan Francisco. That selectivity he showed leads me to believe he knows he needs to work on that aspect of his game. He doesn't need to concern himself with adding more walks to his stat line just improve his selectivity to what he can drive without the need to swing from the heels and the BB's will take care of themselves. A nice byproduct of that is increased Slg% BTW. More time in AAA is absolutely neccessary.

mdccclxix
10-22-2009, 03:07 AM
The thing I don't like about BABIP is it doesn't tell you how the ball was hit. When Bruce was in his funk this past season, I watched nearly every game and all he did was pop up and hit KGjr grounders to 2b. His BABIP was low for a reason. Anyway, on the flip side of that, Juan's BABIP is a nice fat .385 or whatever because he KILLS the ball. I'm ready to see what he can do...in September.

Vottomatic
10-24-2009, 11:46 AM
Francisco should be our starting first baseman, and Joey (my favorite) should move to LF. I'd love to get Francisco's big bat in the starting lineup.

muddie
10-31-2009, 10:56 AM
Watching him play third base here this year (Mudcats AA) his biggest liability was his glove. The guy can hit, no problem. When he was promoted to Louisville and played the Bulls in IL playoffs, we went over to see a game. Francisco was at third and had a lot of chances...handled them all very well. I agree with the point that he is working to make the adjustments necessary to move up and be better.

Mutaman
11-01-2009, 03:17 PM
Ahhhhh! Sanity. Please, please, please don't rush this guy. Being "Rolen's Caddy" and the "1st pinch hitter off the bench" will not give him what he needs to become the next "Ryan Howard".

Sorry, he's ready to play now. If they send him down, he'll be back by June 1.

Redsfan320
11-04-2009, 06:39 PM
I love what I've seen from this guy, and I would give him a shot on the bench at the beginning of next season, maybe in left with Gomes, with dickerson being in center with stubbs, and Bruce in right; of course, all of this is if we stay in-house with the OF.

P.S. Nix and Balentin do absolutely nothing for me.:thumbdown