Improving the 25 man roster

[Will M]

We have talked a lot about improving the 2010 team. Most of the talk has centered around improving LF via free agency or improving SS via trade. I would like to talk about a way to improve the team in a slightly different approach.
One thing that absolutely KILLED the team in 2008 and 2009 was giving hundreds of ABs to players that were not of major league caliber. A look at the current roster shows several guys who still fit this bill. Lets try to get a real honest to goodness major league player at 13 offensive & 12 pitching slots.

Below is a list of who we will have if we do absolutely nothing this offseason.(listed is OPS+ for players & ERA+ for pitchers):
C Hanigan (82)
C Tatum (24)
1B Votto (152)
2B Phillips (100)
SS Janish (57)
3B Rolen (115)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
RF Bruce (97)
CF Stubbs (96)
CF Dickerson (94)
LF Gomes (124)
OF Nix (95) or Balentien (102)

SP Arroyo (115)
SP Harang (105)
SP Cueto (100)
SP Bailey (97)
SP Maloney (91) or Owings (83) or Lehr (82)
RP Cordero (204)
RP Rhodes (174)
RP Masset (186)
RP Herrera (144)
RP Burton (100)
RP Fisher (99)
RP Lincoln {if healthy}, Owings (see above), Ramirez (121 in 12 IP)
DL Volquez. Maybe back mid season.

So...looking at the 25 man roster I see four spots that are way below the standard of 'honest to goodness major league player'.

Needs:
1. another catcher. either a starter who pushes Hanigan to the bench and Tatum to AAA or at least someone competent to compete with Hanigan for playing time (and also pushes Tatum to AAA)

2. a shortstop. I love Janish's glove and heart but his bat screams 'utility infielder'

3. at least one quality backup infielder. i can live with the team telling Rosales/Sutton/Richar/etc (and Janish is we get a better SS) that one spot is open for whoever wins the job next spring but I don't want Janish as a starter and two AAA guys on the bench. I would like the team to go out and get a solid quality IF backup. Frazier might fit this role but I suspect he will be targeted for AAA to start 2010. Types of guys I am thinking of are a 3B/1B/OF guy like Eric Hinske or a 2B/3B/OF type like Mark DeRosa. Lord forbid if Rolen pulls up hurt in April and we have to see another 266 PAs by Adam Rosales combined with Janish's bat at SS.

4. 5th SP. i don't think anybody is sold on Maloney and Owings just didn't get it done as a starter. lets say we could get a guy who could put up an ERA+ of 100. that pushes Owings and Maloney into the mix for the long relief spot as opposed to relying on them for the 5th starter. BIG difference.

Even with this approach we still leave open one hitting spot and one bullpen spot for competition. I am OK with that. Rosales, Sutton, Janish & Richar can compete for the last backup IF spot along with 1 or 2 guys signed to a minor league deal (like Hairston, Cabrera, Nix, Gomes in recent years). The last bullpen spot can be open for competition between Owings, Maloney, Ramirez,etc. This approach is a LOT better than counting on these guys to be key players and then having no fallback plan should they fail.

Note that this approach is very different from the "sign Holliday for $15M/year" approach. In fact if the Reds can get a catcher, bench IF bat, SS & 5th starter who are at least decent I would favor this approach to spending all our cash on a LF upgrade.

Thoughts?

[marcshoe]

I'd like a mid-rotation starter instead of a fifth starter, simply because a fifth starter often proves to be not even that.

Other than that, I'm prone to agree, although I wouldn't complain about a proven bat for left. My number one desire is, of course, a shortstop. As much as I like Janish, let's face it, he's Darrell Chaney.

As far as catcher goes, I'd settle for a real backup, if one could be had for a decent price. Going veteran would be fine here.

[dfs]

Thoughts?

Will, If I could still give you rep points I would.

This is exactly the way to think through the roster. You actually need to expand the margins a bit and think about a 35 man roster. Injuries happen.

You're also absolutely right that a good bit of the hope around this team centers around the health of Scott Rolen. If he goes down....they are in trouble.

The other hole that folks don't want to see is that Joey Votto may need to be replaced for another 100+ at bats. The reds really don't have anybody better than....well, Ramon Hernandez to give those at bats too. That would be fine if you were getting production from elsewhere, but it's a problem for a team like this. I hate to say send Gomes someplace this winter to learn to play first, but it would seem the easiest solution for the team and a smart career move for Gomes.

[Guacarock]

The other hole that folks don't want to see is that Joey Votto may need to be replaced for another 100+ at bats. The reds really don't have anybody better than....well, Ramon Hernandez to give those at bats too. That would be fine if you were getting production from elsewhere, but it's a problem for a team like this. I hate to say send Gomes someplace this winter to learn to play first, but it would seem the easiest solution for the team and a smart career move for Gomes.

Would be a smart career move for Gomes, but there are some other guys on the bubble for whom it might make an even smarter move -- say, Balentien or Nix. If either volunteered to learn 1B this winter, that would go a long way toward enhancing their value to the club, and ensuring they got ranked as the 23rd, 24th or 25th man on the roster, rather than not making the cutoff next spring.

In the absence of an internal candidate stepping forward, we should consider picking up one qualified, veteran utility man this winter capable of playing all four IF positions. Fernando Tatis would be ideal (as he can also sub in the OF and pinch hit with some power). But assuming we don't have the $1 million-plus to add a guy like Tatis, we should at least consider a journeyman like Miguel Cairo. Would beat carrying Sutton and Rosales simultaneously on the roster. I don't have an issue with leaving a spot open for one of these newbies, but two at once is at least one too many.

[Mario-Rijo]

Below is a list of who we will have if we do absolutely nothing this offseason.(listed is OPS+ for players & ERA+ for pitchers):
C Hanigan (82)
C Tatum (24)
1B Votto (152)
2B Phillips (100)
SS Janish (57)
3B Rolen (115)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
RF Bruce (97)
CF Stubbs (96)
CF Dickerson (94)
LF Gomes (124)
OF Nix (95) or Balentien (102)

SP Arroyo (115)
SP Harang (105)
SP Cueto (100)
SP Bailey (97)
SP Maloney (91) or Owings (83) or Lehr (82)
RP Cordero (204)
RP Rhodes (174)
RP Masset (186)
RP Herrera (144)
RP Burton (100)
RP Fisher (99)
RP Lincoln {if healthy}, Owings (see above), Ramirez (121 in 12 IP)
DL Volquez. Maybe back mid season.

So...looking at the 25 man roster I see four spots that are way below the standard of 'honest to goodness major league player'.

I'd agree with almost all of your points. The only one I am not concerned about acquiring would be a UT man. It'd be nice but it's not necc. I think I am for either Frazier, Valaika or Rosales for that spot for the near future. I happen to think Rosy will get better with some time and Frazier or Valaika are capable of taking that role on if not. Sutton a distant 4th. But if you wanted a veteran bat there I'd consider Chad Tracy as a suitable backup 1B/3B.

I think I'd take strong a look at Rick Peterson as our pitching coach and he may have some insight on Mark Mulder who he has been working with this summer, he may be a bounceback candidate. Could we get a solid 3/4 of a season out of he and the other 5th spot possibilities until Edinson's return? I don't know but I don't see the FO going in SP direction unless it's something like this.

The other areas of concern C, SS, LF are a given that we must upgrade. Bobby Crosby might be a guy who could be brought in cheaply to compete at SS, Josh Bard at C and we have a ton of guys who could compete for LF but I still would look at both Scott Hairston (in a trade) and Jeremy Hermida.

Oh and I hope Bray to be a solid part of the pen and leave Lincoln on the outside.

[I(heart)Freel]

This is all well and good but there is a certain NAME missing on the roster. I dare not type the letters for fear of dooming myself and the board for all eternity.

For all the talk of improving the 25-man, I think dealing with *him* is just as important as acquiring anyone.

[TRF]

We have talked a lot about improving the 2010 team. Most of the talk has centered around improving LF via free agency or improving SS via trade. I would like to talk about a way to improve the team in a slightly different approach.
One thing that absolutely KILLED the team in 2008 and 2009 was giving hundreds of ABs to players that were not of major league caliber. A look at the current roster shows several guys who still fit this bill. Lets try to get a real honest to goodness major league player at 13 offensive & 12 pitching slots.

Below is a list of who we will have if we do absolutely nothing this offseason.(listed is OPS+ for players & ERA+ for pitchers):
C Hanigan (82)
C Tatum (24)
1B Votto (152)
2B Phillips (100)
SS Janish (57)
3B Rolen (115)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
IF Rosales (62), Sutton (68), or Richar (55)
RF Bruce (97)
CF Stubbs (96)
CF Dickerson (94)
LF Gomes (124)
OF Nix (95) or Balentien (102)

SP Arroyo (115)
SP Harang (105)
SP Cueto (100)
SP Bailey (97)
SP Maloney (91) or Owings (83) or Lehr (82)
RP Cordero (204)
RP Rhodes (174)
RP Masset (186)
RP Herrera (144)
RP Burton (100)
RP Fisher (99)
RP Lincoln {if healthy}, Owings (see above), Ramirez (121 in 12 IP)
DL Volquez. Maybe back mid season.

So...looking at the 25 man roster I see four spots that are way below the standard of 'honest to goodness major league player'.

Needs:
1. another catcher. either a starter who pushes Hanigan to the bench and Tatum to AAA or at least someone competent to compete with Hanigan for playing time (and also pushes Tatum to AAA)

2. a shortstop. I love Janish's glove and heart but his bat screams 'utility infielder'

3. at least one quality backup infielder. i can live with the team telling Rosales/Sutton/Richar/etc (and Janish is we get a better SS) that one spot is open for whoever wins the job next spring but I don't want Janish as a starter and two AAA guys on the bench. I would like the team to go out and get a solid quality IF backup. Frazier might fit this role but I suspect he will be targeted for AAA to start 2010. Types of guys I am thinking of are a 3B/1B/OF guy like Eric Hinske or a 2B/3B/OF type like Mark DeRosa. Lord forbid if Rolen pulls up hurt in April and we have to see another 266 PAs by Adam Rosales combined with Janish's bat at SS.

4. 5th SP. i don't think anybody is sold on Maloney and Owings just didn't get it done as a starter. lets say we could get a guy who could put up an ERA+ of 100. that pushes Owings and Maloney into the mix for the long relief spot as opposed to relying on them for the 5th starter. BIG difference.

Even with this approach we still leave open one hitting spot and one bullpen spot for competition. I am OK with that. Rosales, Sutton, Janish & Richar can compete for the last backup IF spot along with 1 or 2 guys signed to a minor league deal (like Hairston, Cabrera, Nix, Gomes in recent years). The last bullpen spot can be open for competition between Owings, Maloney, Ramirez,etc. This approach is a LOT better than counting on these guys to be key players and then having no fallback plan should they fail.

Note that this approach is very different from the "sign Holliday for $15M/year" approach. In fact if the Reds can get a catcher, bench IF bat, SS & 5th starter who are at least decent I would favor this approach to spending all our cash on a LF upgrade.

Thoughts?

Someone left off Willy Taveras, who IS on the 25 man roster and is signed for a nice chunk for next year.

[TRF]

This is all well and good but there is a certain NAME missing on the roster. I dare not type the letters for fear of dooming myself and the board for all eternity.

For all the talk of improving the 25-man, I think dealing with *him* is just as important as acquiring anyone.

I named him. now someone bring on Galactus.

[dfs]

Would be a smart career move for Gomes, but there are some other guys on the bubble for whom it might make an even smarter move -- say, Balentien or Nix.
snip
In the absence of an internal candidate stepping forward, we should consider picking up one qualified, veteran utility man this winter capable of playing all four IF positions. Fernando Tatis would be ideal (as he can also sub in the OF and pinch hit with some power). But assuming we don't have the $1 million-plus to add a guy like Tatis, we should at least consider a journeyman like Miguel Cairo. Would beat carrying Sutton and Rosales simultaneously on the roster. I don't have an issue with leaving a spot open for one of these newbies, but two at once is at least one too many.

My assumption is that the reds 25 man roster will not be seeing Laynce Nix or Adam Rosales anymore. I can see them hanging on to Rosales because they don't have better options in house right now.

Bruce,Gomes,Stubbs,Dickerson and Belentien ....there are five outfielders that rank ahead of Nix. Taverible is still owed money and that matters in the real word. They may/should bring in somebody else. ....I can't see how Nix fits into the plan. Any spare OF playing time that could be donated to the "Laynce Nix gets a pension" drive should probably go to Danny Dorn who tore up AAA this last year and is also a corner outfielder. It doesn't make sense to me to block a real prospect because you've got a guy who was a prospect 4 years ago and got hurt.

Likewise one of the things shown by given Adam Rosales so much playing time is that he isn't really a major league player. If Rolen does get hurt, I would assume that Francisco would get the PT over there and after him it would fall on Todd Frazier. It's very hard for me to imagine a scenareo where giving Adam Rosales playing time is a good thing. When you talk about improving the 25 man roster...those are the kind of players you are talking about.

The flip side of that is that one of the bad things about not giving playing time to Richar or Sutton is that we don't really know what we have in those guys. I suppose the same thing could be said about Wilkin Castillo. There just isn't enough information to make an informed choice about if they really deserve a slot on the 40 man roster or not.

[TRF]

Rosales is an enigma. A career .855 minor league OPS suggests some hitting ability. He seems like a utility IF, but his poor showings as a major leaguer, to me suggest he's a guy that needs to play everyday in order to adjust. His minor league career SLG is .491, his MLB, .303, and that just doesn't compute. The kid can hit, but he hasn't hit at the MLB level. Some guys can't make the jump. I'd say he is worth keeping though as he is cheap and in a pinch can play all four IF position and some OF.

[princeton]

yes, let's work on roster spots 22 through 25.

it's the most that a Reds' fan can expect, after all.

[TRF]

yes, let's work on roster spots 22 through 25.

it's the most that a Reds' fan can expect, after all.

It's not that it is the most pressing need, but it will have to be addressed.

Personally I think the Rotation, barring anything happening during ST like an injury is set. Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Maloney. The pen is set. Cordero, Massett, Rhodes (maybe), DRH, Burton, Fisher, with appearances by Viola and a host of others. Maybe a FA is brought in.

Most of the starting 8 are set as well. 1B, 2B, 3B, RF are locks. SS is probably Janish. Should it be? well, defensively he may be the best SS in baseball. Be nice if he could hit. LF? I got nothing. IMO, Gomes is fools gold. Let him walk as he is a DH in the making. CF I think the Reds have covered between Dickerson and Stubbs. (i still burn whenever i type that.) That leaves C and I think Hanigan is fine for the position, but he needs a better backup.

But for the Reds it is business as usual. IF Bruce is fully healed and the light has come on, IF Janish can hit .260, IF Stubbs/Dickerson can man the leadoff position, IF LF is filled by an at least league average LF (Wlad?) If C can be shored up.

If, If, IF!

[Will M]

I left Taveras off the list because the point of the post was to improve the 25man roster. He ranks below Dickerson/Nix/Balentien/my grandma on the depth chart. if the Reds want to 'win now' Taveras won't be on the team.

One thing I don't like about Balentein is that he is kinda a Gomes clone. RH hitter. LF/DH type. Nix or some other LH hitter could play LF if Gomes reverts to his pre2009 hitting vs RHP. This role could be taken by an 'Eric Hinske type'. Hinske himself is a free agent who can play LF/1B/3B and hits LH. seems a better backup than Nix. i am not sure who else is out there that can hit LH and play multiple positions. I know Francisco is playing LF in winter ball but I have to think he will start 2010 in AAA to work on his game (defense, patience).

if the Reds 'go cheap' they could bring in a retread to compete with Maloney and hope to catch 'lightning in a bottle' if Maloney doesn't cut it.
Personally I look at Maloney's games and think he could give up 40 home runs next year.

I forgot about Bray. Add him to the mix for the 7th spot in the pen.

[Raisor]

I named him. now someone bring on Galactus.

http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/galactus.jpg

[RedsManRick]

yes, let's work on roster spots 22 through 25.

it's the most that a Reds' fan can expect, after all.

When the bottom of your roster stinks as bad as ours has recently, it's not a bad idea. The wins you pick up at the bottom of the roster count the same in the standings as the one's at the top, but they can be acquired much more cheaply.

For organizations with small payrolls, the only thing worse than paying big money for little production is wasting your cheap roster spots on guys who bring you down. The Reds could pick up a half dozen wins without adding payroll by better managing the bottom 20% of their roster.

[RED VAN HOT]

Rosales is an enigma. A career .855 minor league OPS suggests some hitting ability. He seems like a utility IF, but his poor showings as a major leaguer, to me suggest he's a guy that needs to play everyday in order to adjust. His minor league career SLG is .491, his MLB, .303, and that just doesn't compute. The kid can hit, but he hasn't hit at the MLB level. Some guys can't make the jump. I'd say he is worth keeping though as he is cheap and in a pinch can play all four IF position and some OF.

I'd love to see Rosales succeed, but then again.....

Brandon Larson: Minor leagues OPS .857 and SLG .521-----Majors OPS .570 and SLG .299

[TRF]

I'd love to see Rosales succeed, but then again.....

Brandon Larson: Minor leagues OPS .857 and SLG .521-----Majors OPS .570 and SLG .299

He just might be another Larson. He is cheap though, and that's the kind of risk you can take on a 25th man.

[RED VAN HOT]

I am doubtful that the Reds can afford an upgrade at SS. I suspect they start the season with Janish. He should not bat second, however. Have him bat 8th. If by his third AB in the 7th inning or so, the Reds trail, pinch hit for him. I prefer keeping Sutton as I believe he is a better late inning replacement at SS than Rosales.

Even though we have spent more time discussing the leadoff hitter, the second spot was just as big a problem. By my count, second place hitters other than Janish scored .55 runs/game and had a .309 OBP. When batting second, Janish scored .56 runs/game and had a .312 OBP. Clearly, an improvement is needed there. The only successful #2 hitter was Hairston when he tore up the league in May. At various times Dusty used Dickerson, Stubbs, Nix, Bruce, McDonald, and Sutton with very little success.