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View Full Version : A Reds-Dbacks-A's-Jays four-team trade to be announced.



guernsey
12-14-2002, 08:25 AM
From Jayson Stark:


A four-teamer could involve the Reds and Blue Jays. In that scenario, Oakland would get Durazo, Arizona would wind up with Reds pitcher Elmer Dessens. And Toronto would get Oakland prospects Jason Arnold and John Ford-Griffin.

So who do the Reds gets from the Jays? Felipe Lopez?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark_jayson/1476652.html

MLB Radio said the announcement is coming.

Neo
12-14-2002, 09:18 AM
Intesting stuff from ESPN.

"One final Durazo rumor was a potential monster deal in which Arizona would make a run at Miguel Tejada, offering Durazo and Byung-Hyun Kim. While the A's aren't looking to trade Tejada, an official of one club said the A's are willing to be "proactive," much as they were a year before Jason Giambi's free agency, because they know there's a realistic chance they can't re-sign Tejada. So they might at least listen to the right deal. They then could move Mark Ellis from second base to shortstop, his original position, and sign Edgardo Alfonzo to play second."

With the rumored 60 Million. Why not Tejeda? ;) I could wish.

But with the 4 team trade.. I am not sure if I like it. For once we have a solid four pitching rotation. Trading Elmer would put us back at 3 and make us wonder who would fill the next two slots. If it was indeed for Lopez, I would ponder on this situation a little more. But note, a trade of Dessens for Lopez only clears money, and Bowden said he is doing that to bring in the bigger contracts.

princeton
12-14-2002, 09:31 AM
Toronto's pretty loaded, especially with five tool talents that Bowden would appreciate more than Ricciardi

But I really think that you'd have to blow us away to score Dessens.

Dan
12-14-2002, 01:42 PM
Could the Reds end up with BOTH Felipe Lopez AND Orlando Hudson? Just a thought.

Krusty
12-14-2002, 05:52 PM
If Bowden could get both Lopez and Hudson, it would be a major coup. It would probably cost them Dessens and another pitcher off the 25-man roster, or a top prospect like Howington, Basham or Hall.

Now, would anyone be interested in a Griffey for Tejada deal with Oakland?

LvJ
12-14-2002, 07:01 PM
Originally posted by Dan
Could the Reds end up with BOTH Felipe Lopez AND Orlando Hudson? Just a thought. I doubt it. Toronto, and their fans know Lopez and Hudson is part of their fantastic build up for a championship. I would think it'd take alot to just get either one. If the Bluejays dealed both of these guys without getting something similar back (Dunn, Kearns) then there would be riots in Toronto.. yep.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 01:53 PM
From Rotoworld:


Erubiel Durazo - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks Dec 15

The Blue Jays, A's, Reds and Diamondbacks have discussed a four-team trade, but a deal isn't close to taking place. The trade is believed to have the Reds receiving Felipe Lopez from Toronto, the Blue Jays picking up prospects John Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold from Oakland, the A's acquiring Erubiel Durazo for Arizona and the Diamondbacks getting Reds right-hander Elmer Dessens. Whether this deal happens or not, it appears very likely that Durazo will be traded, probably to Oakland or Montreal. The Red Sox seem out of the running.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 05:34 PM
MLB Radio jsut announced that these four teams are set to announce a trade, but the player names haven't been released yet.

M2
12-15-2002, 05:40 PM
This is going to be a long 15 minutes.

NCRed
12-15-2002, 05:41 PM
Pitching is so short. How do we replace an Elmer ? now we are two spots short of a legitimate Staring 5 !

Falls City Beer
12-15-2002, 05:42 PM
Wow. That would be just an AWFUL trade. AWFUL!! We lose pitching and get Pokey Reese redux in return. Holy crap!

I could understand if we got Durazo in return, but Lopez is worse than even I could have predicted.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 05:45 PM
Here's what's curious. It's a four team trade, but the Reds are making the announcement. Why? I'm guessing the Reds are involved in two trades. Trading Elmer away and getting Lopez back doesn't explain why Jared Fernandez was released. The Reds must be adding another couple of players through a second trade.

Kc61
12-15-2002, 05:45 PM
As I posted in the Larson thread, the Reds are in pretty desperate need of middle infielders. So it is worthwhile acquiring a young shortstop. Question is whether Lopez is the right young shortstop.

My guess is that Larson gets traded for Chacon who fills the Dessens rotation spot.

M2
12-15-2002, 05:47 PM
Lopez has popgun power, but, unlike Pokey, he's shown a fair eye at the plate.

Let's hope the Reds get something along with him, like Hudson.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 05:50 PM
MLB Radio is reporting several sources say it is the Durazo, Dessens, Lopez, Arnold & Ford Griffith trade.

Kc61
12-15-2002, 05:50 PM
If a lot of players are moving, I hope we get a catcher.

Falls City Beer
12-15-2002, 05:51 PM
Wow. Another G__d__ salary dump. Absolutely f____unbelievable.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 05:52 PM
Why has no other major media people picked up this story???

whatafool
12-15-2002, 05:55 PM
Lopez's .287 obp does not indicate to me he has a better eye than pokey.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 05:58 PM
SYRACUSE SKYCHIEFS Individual Statistics Final Official -- 2002 W-L Record: 64- 80
GI ---GAMES BY POSITION---
BATTERS AVG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF HP BB IB SO SB CS DP SLG OBP 1B 2B 3B SS OF C E
#Lopez, Felipe .318 43 173 35 55 79 11 2 3 16 1 0 1 29 1 37 13 0 3 .457 .419 0 0 0 43 0 0 16

whatafool
12-15-2002, 05:59 PM
Bowden identified Lopez as a 2b/ss so esstenial we traded walker and dessens for a younger cheaper 2b and 2 prospects. Yeah This team is committed to winning.

NCRed
12-15-2002, 06:00 PM
Ugh ! Something else is better be happening !

M2
12-15-2002, 06:01 PM
29 BB in 173 AAA ABs last season. 35 BB in 459 big league ABs in 2001-2002. Those aren't bad BB rates for a young player.

JimBo just announced it's only Lopez coming back and compared it to the Burba-Casey deal (mentioned the Smiley, Brantley and Shaw deals too). Hey, weren't the Reds rebuilding back then?

WVRedsFan
12-15-2002, 06:04 PM
Originally posted by NCRed
Ugh ! Something else is better be happening !


Don't count on it. I get this feeling that the main objective John Allen has given Bowden is to use that $60 million as frugally as possible. Thus, Dessens is expendable for a worn-out Pete Harnish. It's the same old story over and over. It's driving me NUTS!

NCRed
12-15-2002, 06:04 PM
Where are we going to spend this 60 million. Currently we are going backyards. Maybe Reidling can be a Starter ??

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:05 PM
So how much more $ does this put back in Lindners pocket?


Leave it to Jimbo, only GM to get $#%& in a 4 way deal.

M2
12-15-2002, 06:05 PM
So now the Reds' rotation is?

Dempster, Graves, Haynes, Reitsma and ???

Looked a whole lot better with Dessens in there. The rotation was, at best, average with Dessens. IMO, the need for an ace has gone up in recent days.

Raisor
12-15-2002, 06:07 PM
Originally posted by M2
So now the Reds' rotation is?

Dempster, Graves, Haynes, Reitsma and ???

.

Hopefully Chen will get another shot..

PSR

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:08 PM
I like the deal.

Two reasons.

1. The Reds need Young Middle Infielders, I think this guy is going to be a good one.

2. This gives us a little more room to bring in a pitcher, another deal will be done!

TRF
12-15-2002, 06:12 PM
Name one pitcher the Reds have traded in the past 5 years that has actually improved from his last season as a red? Remlinger is the only one i can think of. Gabe White. ok 2.

But never a starter.


I'll go against the grain and back this trade. Opens a spot in the rotation for Reidling or Willy.

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:13 PM
If the reds use the savings to bring in an ace then fine. If they stick it back in Lindner's pocket (and why do I think that will be the case) The deal stinks to high heaven.

creek14
12-15-2002, 06:17 PM
Originally posted by whatafool
If the reds use the savings to bring in an ace then fine.

It dang well better be Schilling and Johnson for all the savings they are racking up.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:17 PM
Why can't we all relax and see what unfolds.

We were told the payroll will increase to 60 million, if on April 1st we have a payroll of 55 million we can get pissed together.

I said it once, I will say it again, I like this trade.

EricDavis
12-15-2002, 06:18 PM
Griffey30,

I agree. I like this trade...Sell High and Buy low. I liked Dessens and will miss him, but in the big picture of things, I like this trade.

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:21 PM
Your right creek, even if we acquire a decent starter we are just back to square one. To come out ahead we will need to fine two pretty good starters. I don't see that happening. I am sorry for being so pesimistic but the FO makes ot hard to get excited about the direction of this franchise.

RANDY IN INDY
12-15-2002, 06:21 PM
Kind of curious, in that the Reds keep saying, and we all know, they need pitching. I'm willing to wait and see what else transpires. I don't know a lot about Lopez, but he seems to be pretty well thought of. The Reds can use some speed, and he has it. Still, the pitching is lookin' kinda thin right now.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:21 PM
Another report on this guy from top prospect alert

One of the top players in the minors, the 19-year-old Lopez leads the pack in a Blue Jays system blessed with an abundance of middle infielders.

Originally a first round selection (#8 overall) in the 1998 draft, this switch-hitter spent all of 1999 at Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League, where he compiled some impresive numbers for someone his age (.277, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 27 2B 4 3B, 87 R, 61 BB, 157 SO, and 21 SB in 537 AB). However, he also did rack up the errors (32). This and the high strikeouts are common for young players so I am not too concerned over them.

At 6-foot and 175 pounds, Lopez is similar to the new wave of shortstops that are being produced. He has the strong bat which in the past you normally wouldn't see from his position. He does project to have good power, but I'm not going to put him in the Nomar Garciaparra/ Alex Rodriguez class, atleast not yet. I think, say, 20 homers per season could be possible, like what Derek Jeter has begun to do in New York the past couple of seasons. Lopez has the athletic ability, hands, and arm to be a very good fielder also.

With the likes of Tony Batista doing a very good job in Toronto, and with others like Michael Young and Cesar Izturis also one the way, the Jays really don't have to rush Lopez to the majors. He's currently at Double-A Knoxville and I think I full season there, followed by a year at Triple-A Syracuse, would probably be the best for him. If things work out, he could be a starter and eventual star right around the age of 21

I know this is old but still good reading.

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:23 PM
How much was Elmer making?

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:26 PM
Oh crap

just read this

As part of the deal, Cincinnati is sending cash to the Diamondbacks.


This can NOT be true, were paying the rich now??????

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1215/1477358.html

EmtyRedsFan
12-15-2002, 06:26 PM
Dont like the trade. Dessens was the only reliable pitcher the Reds had(haynes couldnt last 7). I guess Larson is gone in the Rockie trade? Looks to me like the Reds are untooling than retooling. but Bowden is great so i'll let it slide(sarcastic)

Docta
12-15-2002, 06:27 PM
Originally posted by Griffey30
Oh crap

just read this

As part of the deal, Cincinnati is sending cash to the Diamondbacks.

good lord! if we get no one of substance added to this team by spring training i will be pissed

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:29 PM
Well you can't expect Arizona to take our best pitcher for the past three years for free ofcourse jimbo will throw in cash!

So that is where our payroll increase is going to the Diamondbacks. PERFECT!



I wish Jumbo was in my Roto league I would play him like a fool.

VR
12-15-2002, 06:31 PM
Cincy also sends cash to Toronto - :eek:

So Lopez at short, where is Mr. Larkin?

scubba steve
12-15-2002, 06:32 PM
Well, apparently, the Reds are TALKING (not trading, but talking to) the Expos about either Vasquez or Colon.

Just wait and see I guess.

Don't get your hopes up!

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:35 PM
Not sure the Reds have enough in the cupboard to get either one of those guys.

Unless of course you don't mind seeing Dunn in Canada.

M2
12-15-2002, 06:38 PM
I agree the Reds needed to get a young middle IF, but they sure paid maximum price for one.

John Peralta and Anderson Machado might be just as good over the long haul (and I doubt anyone seriously believes Lopez will be an immediate impact guy, so this is a long haul deal) and they'd cost a whole lot less.

Isn't starting pitching supposed to be the most precious commodity in baseball? The Reds just dealt their best pitcher over the past three (count 'em three) years for a single prospect (and not exactly an uberprospect at that). Couldn't they have forced Arizona to kick in one of their AA pitchers like Mike Gosling or Brandon Webb?

As it stands right now, the Reds have less offense and a weaker rotation than they did a week ago. Something else had better be coming.

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 06:38 PM
Earlier the Reds were going to trade Griffey, and then they traded Walker, and now have traded Dessens.

They could not win with the pitching they had in the last two years and now the Reds have even less pitching and a weaker lineup, are they trading up or trading down?

And just what quality pitching is out there to be had by the Reds?

Pretty clear what direction they are heading in and Carl is still running the assylum from his wallet. :thumbdn:

westofyou
12-15-2002, 06:40 PM
One of the top players in the minors, the 19-year-old Lopez leads the pack in a Blue Jays system blessed with an

BP last season lists Lopez as 22, "Lopez has a quick, short stroke and is rapidly developing power. They have him listed as a SS/3b

I like this because this team could use some flexibility in the IF, a guy with potential pop and the ability to play 3 positions might cause Boone to have an anyerisum thinking about the moves he can make. Some would say that can't be all bad.

I appreciated Elmer, for what he was... a low cost pitcher. His ERA was nice last year, but he historically doesn't K enough guys and that seems to be something we have too much of. I think they view it as selling high before they have to pay for it.

Kinda like Steve Parris... but with a bigger payoff.

Here's Elmers numbers as a Red



2000-2002

YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA
2000 Reds 28 11 5 .688 40 16 1 1 6 147.1 170 73 70 43 85 4.28 12
2001 Reds 29 10 14 .417 34 34 1 0 0 205 221 103 102 56 128 4.48 -4
2002 Reds 30 7 8 .467 30 30 0 0 0 178 173 70 60 49 93 3.03 28
TOTALS 28 27 .509 104 80 2 1 6 530.1 564 246 232 148 306 3.94 36
LG AVERAGE 30 30 .498 3 2 530.1 530 280 257 208 404 4.36 0

YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL
2000 Reds 10 10.38 13.19 5.19 2.63 1.98 0 4 7 3 640 0 9 7
2001 Reds 32 9.70 12.20 5.62 2.46 2.29 1 4 1 1 862 1 12 12
2002 Reds 24 8.75 11.58 4.70 2.48 1.90 0 3 8 7 737 1 10 5
TOTALS 66 9.57 12.27 5.19 2.51 2.07 1 11 16 11 2239 2 31 24
LG AVERAGE 66 9.00 12.87 6.85 3.52 1.94 1 17 20 21 2296 2

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 06:40 PM
Here is how Rotoworld broke down the trade..

Reds acquired infielder Felipe Lopez from the Blue Jays as part of a four-team trade.
It's going to take a couple of years, but trading Elmer Dessens for Felipe Lopez is going to end up looking very good for Cincinnati. Expect Lopez to start at second base for the Reds. He could move to shortstop in 2004. Lopez probably won't hit for average next season, but a 20-20 season is a possibility.

whatafool
12-15-2002, 06:42 PM
By the time the trade pays off Lopez will be eligible for arbitration and we all know what that will mean.

MWM
12-15-2002, 06:45 PM
I would love to get Vasquez or Colon, but I think the price would be too steep. In general, this seems to be a buyer's market with the exception of Montreal. Everyone knows they have to unload salary, but everyone seems to be interested and it could turn into a bidding war. It would cost us Kearns or Dunn. I really would prefer not to trade either of those guys. They can take anyone else in the organization as far as I'm concerned.

Count me down as one who absolutely hates the Dessens trade. The only possible explanation I can think of is that the powers that be within the Reds organization think Dessens will not be as effective in the coming years.

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 06:46 PM
So this is the great 2003 season that we all have long awaited shaping up? ....wow Bowden, are you just addicted to making deals or are you actually trying to help Lindner.?

M2
12-15-2002, 06:48 PM
Cash?

At some point ineptitude becomes unforgivable. I can live with Dessens for Lopez (though it doesn't thrill me), but why in the name of D*ck W*gn*r is JimBo paying the DBacks to take his top pitcher?

Can it be that the Reds aren't even good at being cheap?

SirFelixCat
12-15-2002, 06:49 PM
Put me down as one who is fine with this trade, except for the cash part. If it's a "nominal" amount (not that $5 is nominal in Cincy), I like it. I'm, of course, assuming that we have another trade coming down for a very good SP. If so, then I LOVE this trade. Face it, we need someone to fill the void left by TW and Larkin's heir apparent. Give this some time and this just might turn out to be a great trade, again, provided we get a very good SP to fill the spot of Dessens. Time will tell....

MattyHo4Life
12-15-2002, 07:02 PM
There aren't a lot of very good starting pitchers left out there that are cheap. Hey...maybe Bowden will go after Tomko instead of the Cards :thumbup:

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 07:09 PM
Yeah, and maybe he is trying to scare Larkin into early retirement and Griffey into begging for a trade to the Tokyo Giants!:hat:

PuffyPig
12-15-2002, 07:09 PM
Well, I will have to think that we have to wait and see how this pans out before we can really assess it. I do know that Walker and Dessens, who Bowden got for nothing, are being traded at their very maximum highest value. Dessens was a good pitcher, but could rarely go past 6 innings, ala Haynes. He was goning to make about $4M in arbitration. I do know than in BA's 2001 Propect Handbook, Lopez was rated higher than Dunn and Kearns. He has power, and it won't be a surprise to see him go .260-20-70 next season. We desperately needed a SS to replace Larkin, and now we have him. Dessens won't have lasted here much longer probably anyway. Thois is a trade for 2004 and beyond, but Lopez could produce immediately. He was rushed very quickly for a SS, and the Pokey comparisons are unfir, as Pokey never showed any power in the minors, and came fairly late to the majors.

M2
12-15-2002, 07:14 PM
Wouldn't part of trading a guy at his maximum value involve getting a maximum return?

And why can't we assess the basics of a trade? The Reds gave up X and they got Y back. Is that a fair return? IMO, it's at the bottom end of the fair scale.

Team Tuck
12-15-2002, 07:16 PM
Dessens would have made what, $3.5 mil this year with arbitration. With Walker's $3.5 mil, that's $7 mil off next year's payroll. By my calculations, that should leave us under the $60 mil budget for next year, by how many million I'm not exactly sure. Depends on how the arbitration cases shake out. But maybe the payroll room is now there to add a good starter?? We shall see.

I liked Elmer, but I also think he hit the top of his game. Plus he had the injury last year. We landed a top prospect, 22 yr old, switch-hitting middle infielder. If this gives us the payroll room to add a starter even better than Dessens, then I'm ok with this trade.

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 07:18 PM
Yes, some seem to forget that trading someone when their value is high, that it requires getting something of equal to or greater value in return.

Every year Jim tickles the fans with these lateral moves and trade downs and the fans think they are getting something……..they are shafted.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 07:20 PM
Here is ehat the BlueJay faans are saying.

http://citadel6.ezboard.com/ftorontobluejaysfrm1.showMessageRange?topicID=276. topic&start=1&stop=20


I believe that every fan overrates there own players.

I'm sure Bowden offered both Walker and Dessens to a number of teams, if this is what we got for them this is what they are worth.

Trading them now was the best time for both of them.

Both are getting more expensive and longer in the tooth, both coming off great years.

Its funny reading that board, its the complete opposite as in here, most think the Reds came out ahead in this deal!!!

Buckeye33
12-15-2002, 07:24 PM
This isa very good trade for the Reds. Elmer Dessens has hit his peak, and will more than likely not put up the 3.03 ERA he did this season. The Reds signed this guy out of a Mexican league and turned him into a decent pitcher and got a 22 year old switching hitting MI who has a ton of potential.

Dessens averaged 6 IP per start last year, it's not like he was going deep into games for the Reds. I don't have the time to look it up, but I can promise you that Dessens was the best 5 inning pitcher in baseball, but his ERA in the 6th and 7th innings had to be horrible.

A team like the Reds can not afford to pay a risky pitcher like Dessens 3.5-4 million dollars like they were going to. 2-2.5 million? sure, just like they did Jimmy Haynes.

This will turn out to be a very good trade for the Reds. And it could be as soon as this year.

RANDY IN INDY
12-15-2002, 07:28 PM
How much $$$$$$$$, did they give away. Pleading cash poor all this time and now giving it away? I surely hope it wasn't much. Player for player, the trade doesn't bother me, but to give them cash too, starts to make me a little uneasy.

SirFelixCat
12-15-2002, 07:28 PM
Originally posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC
How much $$$$$$$$, did they give away. Pleading cash poor all this time and now giving it away? I surely hope it wasn't much.

That's key. And as long as we still get a solid SP, all is good.

SirFelixCat
12-15-2002, 07:32 PM
Jimbo said during the news conference that when he resigned Haynes, he expected this deal to go thru an hour later. He had a choice either Dessens by himself or Hanyes and Lopez. I think he made the right choice. Also, he said he has never had anything close to a deal with Colorado.

Interesting stuff...now who is that pitcher that we need???

Redsfaithful
12-15-2002, 07:35 PM
Everyone hating this trade is going to look silly, not in a few years, but next year.

Lopez is going to match Todd Walker offensively, for three million dollars less. I could easily see Lopez being a Tejeda type shortstop in five years. And if Larkin gets moved to second, his offensive drop off doesn't look so bad at a normally weak offensive position.

Losing Dessens hurts, but I have faith in Bowden. He's going to replace him at these meetings, and I seriously doubt that he made this trade without something up his sleeve. I'm sure this trade is going to look very different by next Wednesday.

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 07:39 PM
Want to bet a coke on that ? on who looks silly ? ;)

whatafool
12-15-2002, 07:40 PM
I sure hope we don't make the Larson/Chicon deal with the Rox. If we are able to get a better starter than Dessens then I am OK with the deal. If we go into ST with this rotation we could lose 90 games.

guernsey
12-15-2002, 07:41 PM
Oh, I don't know that Lopez will match Walker offensively next season, but he will play rings around him defensively.

Redsfaithful
12-15-2002, 07:42 PM
Alright Springfield, I'll bet you a coke. We'll decide who wins following next season. :D

guernsey
12-15-2002, 07:43 PM
From Rob Neyer:


Dec. 15
It took him a couple of years, but Billy Beane finally got his man.


Even before Jason Giambi went for Steinbrenner's millions, Beane salivated at the prospect of acquiring Erubiel Durazo to DH and eventually take over at first base. And now, after a year of Scott Hatteberg and his .433 slugging percentage, Beane fhas Durazo and his .528 career slugging percentage in the lineup.


For the Athletics, though, the question will be how often Durazo is actually in the lineup. The big slugger set a career high last season in at-bats ... with 222. In giving up two of their better prospects, the A's hope that Durazo can stay off the disabled list and give them at least 400 at-bats and at least 30 home runs.


Elsewhere, the Blue Jays get a couple more prospects as they continue to rebuild their farm system, the Reds get Barry Larkin's eventual replacement, and the Diamondbacks get a pitcher who posted a 3.03 ERA last season and probably won't post a sub-4.00 ERA next season.

KYRedsFan
12-15-2002, 07:44 PM
I'd have to say right now I like this trade. However, we still are left with two holes from last year. Regardless of where he plays, he still has to replace the solid production Walker gave us, and now we are left with a large hole in the rotation. Jim has tried to address the hole left by Walker's departure, I'd have to say he is working on the rotation.

And we do likely add some sorely needed speed to this lineup, just as long as he's not planning on trying to steal first base. :evilgrin:

RANDY IN INDY
12-15-2002, 07:50 PM
I'm not as concerned about the loss of Walker's production, as I am the loss of a very reliable starting pitcher. If the Reds can replace Dessens and strengthen the staff, I like the trade.

Spring~Fields
12-15-2002, 07:51 PM
Redsfaithful,

What are you doing, putting my coke in escrow? We will know by the end of July.
:evilgrin:

KYRedsFan
12-15-2002, 07:51 PM
Don't know if any of this has been posted, here goes. Scouting reports from TSN last year on Lopez. It seems they maybe possibly probably might think he'll be another Tejada. ;)

Latest Update
Sept. 2, 2002 - 7:49 p.m.
The Blue Jays recalled Lopez from Triple-A Syracuse on Monday.
Fantasy Spin: Since being sent back to Triple-A, Lopez, the team's future shortstop, has batted .297 but displayed terrible defense (11 errors in 37 games). Nevertheless, if he gets called up, Lopez should get enough time between second, third and short to warrant a look. (Brendan Roberts/TSN)


July 18, 2002 - 2:57 p.m.
The Blue Jays assigned Lopez to Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday. He hit .226 with 14 doubles, eight home runs and 31 RBIs in 79 games.
Fantasy Spin: We guess he won't be splitting time with Chris Woodward anymore.



Feb. 8, 2002 - 11:49 a.m.
Lopez is a tremendous athlete who could become a 30-30 player. He switched to third in the majors last year because the Blue Jays had a gaping hole at the position. In the offseason, they traded shortstop Alex Gonzalez and acquired third-base prospect Eric Hinske, setting the stage for Lopez to play short. Lopez batted .279-16-44 with 13 steals in 358 Triple-A at-bats and could be amazing by age 27. He has been plagued by inconsistency, however, and could falter in 2002.
Fantasy Spin: He enters spring as the starting shortstop. He could be another Miguel Tejada, but for 2002 consider him a sleeper who might hit 10 homers with 20-plus steals. (David Srinivasan/TSN)



Aug. 23, 2001 - 5:49 p.m.
Lopez hit his first major league homer Thursday, connecting for a two-run shot in the sixth from Travis Miller. Lopez, who homered in his 57th major league at-bat, was 3-for-4, also tripling and singling. Said Jays manager Buck Martinez: "He has tremendous power. We've seen it in BP. I've been expecting something like this from him."
Fantasy Spin: Lopez could develop into another Miguel Tejada with the lumber. He's very young, and he has outstandings tools. You should be excited about him.



Aug. 14, 2001 - 9:15 p.m.
Manager Buck Martinez said Lopez's future is at SS or 2B, not a third baseman. "Given our personnel right now, he's best suited for third base," Martinez said. "He'll be a shortstop, but we have a good shortstop. I don't think anybody plays better at shortstop than Alex Gonzalez."
Fantasy Spin: Just wanted to let you know a position change (and a good one fantasy-wise) is in order.



Aug. 4, 2001 - 2:58 p.m.
Lopez was called up from Triple-A Syracuse on Friday.
Fantasy Spin: Lopez is an exceptional athlete who needs to polish his defense. He's primarily a shortstop, but has played some second and third, and this versatility will serve him well in the majors this season. Down the road, he and the Blue Jays will kick starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez to the curb. Lopez has excellent power and was slugging .506 at Triple-A Syracuse (19 doubles, seven triples, 16 homers in 358 at-bats). Lopez was also batting .279 with a .337 OBP. His plate discipline isn't outstanding -- he had 94 strikeouts and 30 walks -- but he's only 21, and could hit 30-35 homers when he matures. Toss in the potential for 30-40 steals, and you have a potential roto stud. (David Srinivasan/TSN)



Scouting Reports
Feb. 8, 2002 - 11:49 a.m.
Lopez is a tremendous athlete who could become a 30-30 player. He switched to third in the majors last year because the Blue Jays had a gaping hole at the position. In the offseason, they traded shortstop Alex Gonzalez and acquired third-base prospect Eric Hinske, setting the stage for Lopez to play short. Lopez batted .279-16-44 with 13 steals in 358 Triple-A at-bats and could be amazing by age 27. He has been plagued by inconsistency, however, and could falter in 2002.
Fantasy Spin: He enters spring as the starting shortstop. He could be another Miguel Tejada, but for 2002 consider him a sleeper who might hit 10 homers with 20-plus steals. (David Srinivasan/TSN)



Aug. 23, 2001 - 5:49 p.m.
Lopez hit his first major league homer Thursday, connecting for a two-run shot in the sixth from Travis Miller. Lopez, who homered in his 57th major league at-bat, was 3-for-4, also tripling and singling. Said Jays manager Buck Martinez: "He has tremendous power. We've seen it in BP. I've been expecting something like this from him."
Fantasy Spin: Lopez could develop into another Miguel Tejada with the lumber. He's very young, and he has outstandings tools. You should be excited about him.

James Brown
12-15-2002, 08:17 PM
This is a good trade if Lopez can be the leadoff hitter we have been looking for. Bowden needs to get a #1 starter with the extra money he has now.

Reds1
12-15-2002, 08:33 PM
I don't know about Lopez speed, but I think we may be putting him in the starting line up fast. I think he has to earn it over the likes of Larson or some other move like Larkin to 2B, Boone to SS, Branyan, Larson 3B. We will see. If we get no other pitching this deal stinks IMO, but I hope I'm wrong.

MikeS21
12-15-2002, 08:37 PM
I like the trade.

We get our SS of the future, and unload Dessens.

Despite his 2002 numbers, Dessens IS NOT a guy who I consider a #1 or #2 starter. I think he had a career year in 2002, and would have receive too much in arbitration to warrant keeping. I agree with Rob Neyer. Dessens would not come close to repeating his 2002 numbers.

What I really wish is that Larkin would move to 2B and let Lopez take over SS so the kid can concentrate on hitting and not learning a new position.

Two years from now, this will turn out to be a GREAT trade. I think it will be a POSITIVE trade this year.

Marty and Joe
12-15-2002, 08:37 PM
Didn't know if this has been added yet.

"Also, Oakland, Toronto and Cincinnati each sent $333,333 to Arizona."

So...it wasn't a bunch of cash.

I like this deal assuming something else is coming. Lopez is a great young prospect.

Candy Cummings
12-15-2002, 08:38 PM
Only one things sums it up...welcome to Kansas City.

RedRoser
12-15-2002, 08:40 PM
Will be won at spring training, according to the interview with Bob Boone. He also mentioned that both Lopez and Larson have option(s).

---'Roser

red-in-la
12-15-2002, 08:40 PM
With a OBP less than .300, and 90 SO in 282 AB's, this guy is NOT a lead off hitter. He is young, but man.

If you wanted a SS that strikes out all the time, but hits a HR once a week or so, why not get Hernadez (of the Brewers) who would have come for free ( as a FA)?

scubba steve
12-15-2002, 08:46 PM
Griffey 30,

What is your SN at fanhome?

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 08:49 PM
I have no screen name there, i was just looking around.

scubba steve
12-15-2002, 08:50 PM
Oh.

Seemed like somebody I know at fanhome.

Krusty
12-15-2002, 08:56 PM
Classic Bowden of trading players that have reached their all-time highs for players that have high ceilings. We seen it before with Konerko going to the White Sox for Cameron.

Lopez is going to be a gem of a shortstop. You heard it hear from the ole Kruster. I doubt very much Walker and Dessens could improve much more than what they did this past season. Next up to be moved will be Gabe White.

Reds have cleared almost 7 million in payroll to make a trade for a frontline pitcher or possibly sign two B-type free agent pitchers.

People ***** and moan about trading Dessens. But really, is he anything better than a number 3 starter? Lopez might be the next Tejada. If a guy's projected ceiling is at the level, then you make the deal and take the money saved and play the free agent market for a pitcher.

scubba steve
12-15-2002, 08:59 PM
I already mentioned this in a different thread, but this is some food for thought...

Lopez was rated higher than both Dunn and Kearns entering the 2001 season.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 09:01 PM
I thought this was a good thread to read

http://citadel6.ezboard.com/ftorontobluejaysfrm1.showMessage?topicID=278.topic

Krusty
12-15-2002, 09:01 PM
Can you imagine if he does become the next Tejeda? Heck, I would be happy if he could just fill Larkin's shoes.

Stormy
12-15-2002, 09:07 PM
Not only a great trade for the present and future, but the precursor to what appears to be even more imminent improvements.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 09:09 PM
Good to hear from you Red Storm!!!!

Krusty
12-15-2002, 09:18 PM
Missed you Red Storm and your posts. Wish you would post more on the site.

remdog
12-15-2002, 09:28 PM
I'm slightly to the plus side on this trade. Elmer made that #3 hole solid in the rotation. And/but, he probably had his career year even though it didn't translate to absolute wins.

If Lopez can fill the Walker hole and the money saved in both these deals gets translated into a #1 or #2 pitcher for '03, the Reds are ahead for the year. Past '03 they're likely ahead over the long-term.

If the Reds only kicked in .333K, I'm not too unhappy. (Although the fact that the D'backs needed even this minscule amount from the other teams makes you wonder about how desperate their finances are!)

Rem

MWM
12-15-2002, 09:35 PM
WOW!!!!!!!! Stormy, I hope this is a permanent return to the fold. Great to hear from you. The offseason has weeded out most of the chaff.

ukwazoo
12-15-2002, 10:11 PM
I don't mind this trade. I didn't mind the Walker trade. I AM, however, worried about us re-signing Hamilton, Rijo, and Haynes. They're all pretty much done, and signing those three is just another huge example of penny-pinching. Hopefully, there will be some more deals to come.

oregonred
12-15-2002, 10:18 PM
Mark me down as happy with the trade. Sell high, buy low.

I liked Dessens, but not as much at $4M in 2003 and say $6M in 2004 in arbitration. Elmer is a great 6IP, but not the kind of guy you want being your #2 starter in the postseason run.

Lopez could be huge for the Reds with a desperate need for middle IF with superstar potential. Having Larkin as a mentor for 2003 could be a major bonus.

I have to think another deal is coming for a SP. If Jimbo could swing a Vasquez/Armas from the Expos without giving up Kearns/Dunn/Lopez/Basham we are looking good!

Stormy -- Welcome back! :thumbup:

oregonred
12-15-2002, 10:21 PM
Originally posted by WVRedsFan
I get this feeling that the main objective John Allen has given Bowden is to use that $60 million as frugally as possible. ThusNUTS!

Yes, that is exactly what a GM should be doing. Spending every bit of the $60M budget like its your last round of ammo.

Walker and Dessens clear out $7-8M in 2003 and we fill a desperate middle infield need long term. These two deals are only the beginning of a flurry of activity from Jimbo. He's armed with some cash for the first time ever, sportin' the leather pants and looking for action! :lol:

letsgojunior
12-15-2002, 10:22 PM
Stormy -- Welcome back!

Life is good again.:thumbup:

KYRedsFan
12-15-2002, 10:32 PM
If Lopez is going to be tagged as the SS of the future, he needs to be the SS of the present at well. Need to see what we have defensively. But I have huge doubts that we'll see Lark move over.

WVRedsFan
12-15-2002, 10:46 PM
Originally posted by Red Storm
Not only a great trade for the present and future, but the precursor to what appears to be even more imminent improvements.

Welcome back, my friend. And you are spot on...as usual.

Griffey30
12-15-2002, 10:49 PM
Actually I think having Lopez play 2nd this year is better.

I don't think it will be a difficult switch for him. It will take a lot of pressure of the kid much like it did for Pokey.

I believe it would be a very difficult switch, you do something for 30 years then try and make a switch.

jml
12-15-2002, 10:54 PM
Im not convinced this is a good deal for us just yet. While the payroll cuts are good I hate to see another solid arm go. I sure hope Jimbo has something in the works cause if he dosent this is going to go down as a very dissapointing offseason........time will tell.

919191
12-15-2002, 10:57 PM
I can't say I am thrilled with this trade, but I am somewhat optimistic. Dessens probably had a career year and isn't to irreplacable. You can only hope Jimbo isn't done yet.

Kc61
12-15-2002, 10:59 PM
The trade weakens pitching. It also weakens offense. Walker is a solid hitter. Lopez someday may hit, but didn't hit in the majors last year. This means, for awhile, Larue and Lopez at the bottom of the order and Larkin at the top. Reds better add some players who can hit and pitch.

indy_dave00
12-15-2002, 11:04 PM
Put me down as strongly in favor of the deal.Felipe

Lopez gives us a young , highly thought of ss/2b. He was drafted #8 overall in 1998 , same year as Dunn and Kearns. He is the same age as them and came to the majors in 2001 like Adam Dunn did.

He has speed stole 13 of 13 bases in AAA before going up to Toronto in 2002 there he was only 5 of 9 in steals. Has some pop 8 homers 282 big league at bats last season.

His glove and arm are well above average.

He needs more plate discipline but then again most 22-23 year old do.

I believe his upside is such that in 2 years , people in baseball will be saying can you believe the Reds got Felipe Lopez and all it cost them was Elmer Dessens and some money.

better red
12-15-2002, 11:11 PM
On the Cleveland forum, they are already making proposals (Traber etc.) for Lopez. They like him a lot and think the Reds stole him for a 31 year old, 6 inning pitcher. I agree the trade in of itself is good but it weakens the 2003 team unless another move is made. I have learned to have my doubts, particularly when it comes to Bowden addressing starting pitching.

alexad
12-15-2002, 11:18 PM
I think it is a good trade. For the last few weeks everyone cried that the Reds were not doing anything. Nobody wanted Dunn, Kearns, Casey, Jr., or Graves traded.

Well folks in order to do something, we have to trade someone.

We have traded players that can be REPLACED. Elmer had a good ERA, but how many games did he win?

Someone posted trading Dessens would mean we will loose 90 games next year if he is not replaced. Not sure that is going to happen.

The Reds are finally making strides to improve. Lets see what happens tomorrow, because JimBo is itching to pull the trigger again.

Crash Davis
12-15-2002, 11:26 PM
Nice to hear from Stormy again. Were you waiting for the Reds to actually make a positive move before you came back? I don't blame you.

Love this trade...

I've been hoping for Lopez ever since I read last seasont that Ricciardi actually believes Woodward is their shortstop. As has been mentioned, Dessens was traded at peak value.

Baseball America 2001:

#2. Felipe Lopez. A Puerto Rican native, Lopez moved to Florida with his father in 1990. He survived the deaths of his mother and stepmother, as well as an abusive relationship with his father, to become one of the state's top prospects. He signed too late in 1998 to make an immediate impact but has risen quickly through the system. Only Vernon Wells has better tools among Jays prospects -- and Lopez has five-tool ability. He has range to spare, a plus arm and true shortstop actions. He has average power and excellent speed, though it hasn't translated into high stolen-base totals yet. Lopez jumped over high Class A in 2000, which helps explain his mediocre numbers and inability to make consistent contact. Club officials have questioned his concentration, saying he took bad at-bats to the field with him. He hasn't learned the nuances of baserunning yet. Lopez should return to Double-A in 2001. The Blue Jays wouldn't have rushed him if they didn't think it was good for him.

John Benson's scouting report 2001-2002:

#2. Felipe Lopez. Lopez, 20, was the Blue Jays' first round draft pick in 1998. The 6'0", 175 switch-hitter was challenged with a daunting two-level jump to the Double-A Southern League, where he was one of that league's youngest regulars. He struggled mightily with the bat against older, more advanced pitchers, largely due to poor plate discipline. If he can improve in that area and get ahead in the count more often, his already impressive extra-base pop for a middle infielder could explode. He could evolve into a .300ish hitter with 25 homer power. His foot speed is well above average, but Lopez is quite raw with regard with regard to baserunning technique. He needs to study pitchers' deliveries and learn to get better jumps, and that should happen with experience. Defensively, Lopez is state-of-the-art. He covers a lot of ground because of his speed and extraordinary first-step quickness, and he has well above average arm strength. Southern league managers recognized him as the best defensive shortstop prospect in the circuit. Even before the Jays began to deal from their minor league infield strength last season, there was no doubt that Lopez was the man they had in mind to be their next starting shortstop. He's a year away, and could rank in the upper half of the strong AL shortstop crop with the expected offensive development.

John Benson 2001:

Scouting: An excellent defensive infielder who is still learning, Lopez has shown hints that he will develop into a power hitter with great speed and a good batting eye. He doesn't yet take walks at the pace that he should but he has shown a willlingness to learn and will become more selective as he learns more about how pitchers use the strike zone. Defensively he has good range and hands. The Blue Jays' first round pick a couple years ago, he is an above average prospect.

roby
12-15-2002, 11:31 PM
Imagine if Edwin Encarnacion keeps developing. Add him to Lopes and Dunn and you have a pretty decent infield!

marcshoe
12-15-2002, 11:37 PM
(guess I've gotta make a first post sometime. This won't be earth-shaking, but I thought I'd weigh in)

Dessens gave the Reds value no one expected. He developed into a solid 3 or 4 starter and would have helped the team. However, I don't really see him as someone who will make a major difference in where the Reds finish. Odds are that he won't replicate last year's ERA, and even though I liked having him around, I doubt he'll ever develop into a consistent 15-game winner.

With the number of players the Reds have arbitration-eligible some have to go. Otherwise the expected payroll increase will be mostly taken up by keeping what the team has instead of improving. Dessens seems to me to be one of the most likely to get a big arbitration award that he may not play up to. I believe he was as good a choice as any to go.

And I really like Lopez. Tremendous upside. Speed. Possible moderate power. 22 years old. This could be a trade that we look back on a decade from now as a steal. Even if Lopez doesn't pan out, I'll give Bowden a thumbs up on this one.:thumbup:

SirFelixCat
12-15-2002, 11:42 PM
Originally posted by tixe
(guess I've gotta make a first post sometime. This won't be earth-shaking, but I thought I'd weigh in)

Dessens gave the Reds value no one expected. He developed into a solid 3 or 4 starter and would have helped the team. However, I don't really see him as someone who will make a major difference in where the Reds finish. Odds are that he won't replicate last year's ERA, and even though I liked having him around, I doubt he'll ever develop into a consistent 15-game winner.

With the number of players the Reds have arbitration-eligible some have to go. Otherwise the expected payroll increase will be mostly taken up by keeping what the team has instead of improving. Dessens seems to me to be one of the most likely to get a big arbitration award that he may not play up to. I believe he was as good a choice as any to go.

And I really like Lopez. Tremendous upside. Speed. Possible moderate power. 22 years old. This could be a trade that we look back on a decade from now as a steal. Even if Lopez doesn't pan out, I'll give Bowden a thumbs up on this one.:thumbup:

I agree with you completely...and welcome to the fold. It's one heck of a good group we have around here. Enjoy your stay!:beerme:

Puffy
12-16-2002, 12:51 AM
I love this trade - Dessens was a good 6 inning pitcher, but man that burns up a bullpen real quick. And what really did the Reds lose? 7 wins, come on.

So, am I sad to lose Dessens - hell yea! But the Reds got their SS of the future, and they got some speed.

On another note, reading about Lopez and his lack of baserunning skills, Boone is the worst manager for this. The Reds have come out of the last two Spring Trainings horrible on the bases, and now we have the potential for worse. Good God in heaven, the GAB is gonna be OOOOhhhhhing and AAAAAhhhhing this year!!

oregonred
12-16-2002, 01:13 AM
Originally posted by Puffy


On another note, reading about Lopez and his lack of baserunning skills, Boone is the worst manager for this. The Reds have come out of the last two Spring Trainings horrible on the bases, and now we have the potential for worse. Good God in heaven, the GAB is gonna be OOOOhhhhhing and AAAAAhhhhing this year!!

Yes, but he makes up for it with his excellent across the board managerial skills, particularly his knack for having a set and consistent lineup! :lol:

Boss-Hog
12-16-2002, 03:07 AM
Here's an interesting tidbit on the deal from Jason Stark:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark_jayson/1477492.html


At one point or another, the A's had potential deals cooked up with the Giants, Braves, Expos, Blue Jays and Reds that all ended with Durazo winding up in the 510 area code. But finally, on Sunday, the pieces came together.

"We knew a long time ago that (Arizona GM) Joe (Garagiola Jr.) and I didn't have a direct match," Beane said. "So a couple of weeks ago, I said, 'Listen, Joe, give me a list of (pitchers) I can go out and get. And I'll see if I can get them.'"

Beane tried, at various junctures, to trade for Russ Ortiz, Javier Vazquez, Damian Moss and Dessens. He had a four-way deal centering around Dessens that was all but done Friday -- until the Diamondbacks decided they needed some time to see if they could deal for Vazquez on their own.

Boss

Old Red Guard
12-16-2002, 04:29 AM
I love and hate this trade. From a personal standpoint, Dessens was one of my favorites..a guy everyone gave up on who got a final chance and made the most of it - and he was a pretty darn good pitcher...for 6 innings. I love this trade because he was exactly that - a 6 inning pitcher. Reitsma gives you that, is younger and cheaper and has more upside. So, I love the trade from a baseball standpoint. Plus, it re-injects Chris into the starting rotation plans, at least for the moment. I'll really love this trade if Bowden gets us a decent starter to absolutely replace Dessens. Lopez gives us a terrific prospect where we needed one most and puts to rest the Boone to shortstop speculation, at least as a permanent option. I am not convinced this is good for 2003, though. Lopez is a project worth patience, however, and there is still room for Brandon to get plenty of at bats and prove himself out, one way or another.

Dessens will do well with the Snakes, for those who don't think he'll win 15 games, in Arizona he will. They just became a favorite to regain the west. In September when he has another solid season, and Lopez has had his struggles, especially if he spends significant time in the majors, there will be posters who decry this trade (same ones lauding it now probably) but by 2004 and 2005 this will look like one of Bowden's best deals yet.

cincinnati chili
12-16-2002, 06:13 AM
Why this trade will be a bust for the Reds:

- Because the Reds have once again believed the hype on a toolsy player, who has never hit anywhere (until 173 at bats in AAA at the end of last year). Sure, he's been young for his leauges, but this is a guy who didn't even hit well in A ball two years ago. I agree that this was a good time to trade Dessens, but why not get something PROVEN in return, in addition to a lottery ticket.

-Because the REDS COULD HAVE HAD DURAZO, a proven slugging machine instead. Why accomodate the A's in a four-way trade? Why not go to the D'backs directly and give them Dessens for Durazo? Find a shortstop later.

I hope I'm wrong, but my guess is that five years from now Felipe "Alex Gonzalez without the glove" Lopez is out of baseball, and Durazo has played on 3 or 4 all star teams.

J "Cooper"
12-16-2002, 07:26 AM
I think it's a good trade. How many 21/22 year old shortstops put up an OPS of .850 in triple A ball? Keep in mind he did it over 500 at bats. Not too many.

1. He's young so he has time to develop.
2. The International League is a tough place to hit.
3. His walk rates aren't too bad. They aren't great, but at least there is something to build on. Above 10 % in triple A.

If you take the composite of his ML stats and his triple A stats you come up with .330 OBP and a 440 SLG. I think it's possible that Lopez could have that kind of season. Especially when you factor in how most players take a step forward when they turn 23.

My fear is there are things we don't know.

Is he driven to succeed?
Is he really 22?
What is his defense like?


His bat is good for a SS/2nd.

M2
12-16-2002, 08:20 AM
I agree that this was a good time to trade Dessens, but why not get something PROVEN in return, in addition to a lottery ticket.

My thoughts exactly. I know the team needed a player like Lopez, but it traded the most valuable commodity in baseball to get a guy who is a firm maybe.

The Reds aren't flush with starting pitchers. When they trade one, the return should be outstanding. IMO, they undersold Dessens.

Krusty
12-16-2002, 08:29 AM
I think you'll see a slew of deals after the Rule 5 draft today.

PuffyPig
12-16-2002, 08:44 AM
Starting pitchers are the most valuable trading commodity in baseball. That is, before you find yourself without a SS.

ballgame16
12-16-2002, 09:02 AM
How nice would it be to package up a few players for Vidro and Colon. Then lopez can wait in the wings for a year to replace larkin. Then we will have a switch hitter coming off of the bench and a bonafide leadoff hitter at second base. Plus with lopez backing up larkin he will still get a hundred starts next season.:D :D :D

M2
12-16-2002, 09:12 AM
Puff, despite some of the hype surrounding Lopez (a subject chili addressed), the fact is the Reds still might not have a replacement SS for Barry Larkin. Maybe they do. Maybe they don't.

They traded Elmer Dessens for a single magic bean. I'm a firm believer that a dependable animal like that should fetch multiple magic beans.

Gary Redus
12-16-2002, 09:20 AM
When you consider our starting staff - I don't see where Elmer is so much better than the rest of the lot we have. I posted a nice ERA last year, but for the money he will make, he is not superior to our other options. This is a good trade.

Now, I am all for Ortiz or another pitcher superior (Vasquez or Colon) to the grab bag we have, but let's not over-value Uncle Elmer. He emerged from the scrap heap of the Mexican league and likely had a career year. He is a decent starter with a wide range of potential, who will never be a stud.

M2
12-16-2002, 09:33 AM
Over the past three years, Elmer Dessens has been better than the league average in ERA and gets you a quality start most of the time he takes the mound.

Not a single pitcher of the Reds' remaining rotation candidates can claim that.

westofyou
12-16-2002, 10:42 AM
Over the past three years, Elmer Dessens has been better than the league average in ERA

Throw out last year and Elmer looks pretty normal. 4.39 era vs league 4.48.

Here's Elmers numbers vs league average with the differences (plus or minus) noted


ELMER DESSENS

YEAR TEAM AGE W L PCT G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB SO ERA RSAA
1996 Pirates 24 -1 -1 0 0 -15 -10 -11 5 -6 -4.06
1997 Pirates 25 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 -1 4.21
1998 Pirates 26 -2 -2 0 -2 -15 -12 -12 3 -13 -1.43
2000 Reds 28 3 3 0 -1 -19 10 6 20 -25 0.36
2001 Reds 29 -1 -2 0 0 -16 5 -3 20 -31 -0.12
2002 Reds 30 -3 2 -1 0 2 19 21 20 -41 1.08
TOTALS -5 1 -2 -3 -63 14 3 69 -117 0.04


YEAR TEAM HR H/9 BR/9 SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB SHO WP IBB HBP BFP BK NW NL
1996 Pirates 1 -5.35 -3.16 -2.09 1.89 1.22 0 1 1 1 -4 0
1997 Pirates 0 3.57 4.68 -1.49 3.47 0 0 0 -1 1 0
1998 Pirates -2 -1.83 -1.14 -1.61 0.37 -0.29 0 2 0 3 -10 0
2000 Reds 9 -1.18 0.19 -1.56 1.21 0.22 0 1 -2 3 6 1
2001 Reds -6 -0.72 0.48 -1.37 0.87 0.19 0 3 7 7 21 0
2002 Reds -4 0.09 1.09 -2.07 1.01 -0.04 -1 3 -1 0 29 0
TOTALS -1 -0.89 0.27 -1.67 0.98 0.10 0 9 5 13 44 1

westofyou
12-16-2002, 10:47 AM
and Durazo has played on 3 or 4 all star teams.

As a DH. Looks like he won't be playing 1st for a team that doesn't have one. he won't play OF (see 2002 Playoffs) Sure he can hit, but he doesn't bring much else to the game and he's the protypical AL player.

This team has NO MI in the minors or on the ML field. That plays more heavily into our equation than getting Durozo, we have big guys who can mash and take a BB.

We need MI help from AA up.

haassolo
12-16-2002, 10:52 AM
I do not know if any stated this or not, but I like how Lopez is a switch hitter. I can't remeber the last time we had one, but this is an added bonus. Given Boone's love of the right left right left order for batting, and our lack, meaning none, for switch hitters last year then score one for the Reds. Lastly, who was the Reds last switch hitter?

RANDY IN INDY
12-16-2002, 11:04 AM
I hate to bring this up, but the last switch hitter we had was the portly, disenchanted one in Detroit.

haassolo
12-16-2002, 11:05 AM
Damn, your right. That fat ass was a switch hitter.

M2
12-16-2002, 11:08 AM
Before Dmitri it was Thomas Howard. Before him, Tony Fernandez.

Oooh, and don't forget the immortal Mel Nieves.

red-in-la
12-16-2002, 11:53 AM
And I hate to bring THIS up:

Lopez:

As a LH batter: 214 AB's, 73 SO, .201 AVG, .269 OBP, .610 OPS

I hope he isn't Jose Offerman II when it comes to switch hitting.

gm
12-16-2002, 12:29 PM
I see this deal as a failure of the Red's scouting department to come up with an "heir apparent" SS to replace Barry Larkin. Gee, they only had about 10 years to draft/develop one

Larkin has said he'd like to "pass on" the tips/wisdom that Davey Concepion handed down to him re: playing the position. As of today he has a pupil who can hit well enough to possibly be the next Red's starting SS. So that hole seems to have finally been plugged

But I agree with chili and M2, the cost was too high. Sure, Dessens isn't a #1/2 starter, but Elmer's been the the best Red's SP over the past 3 seasons. It would be one thing if the Reds had several better alternatives to replace him already on the roster, but we know that's not the case

Will Bowden acquire a better starting pitcher to replace Dessens? Hope so, but I'm not optimistic.

I like the trade for AZ and the A's. The Red's still seem to be in rebuilding mode. Here's hoping it's not perennial

princeton
12-16-2002, 12:39 PM
I'm waiting for Redread to point out that had we signed Jason Arnold for $60,000 after we drafted him in 1999, we could have dealt him even up for Felipe Lopez and kept Elmer Dessens

J "Cooper"
12-16-2002, 01:00 PM
Elmer is getting close to that magical number where things fall apart.

1. His K/9 innings are at 4.6.
2. My guess is his ERA does not begin to tell the true story about how effective he was last year...basically he was very lucky to have a 3.03 ERA. The numbers did not add up to that ERA. I'm guessing his component ERA was/is close to what he had always done.
3. He's entering a time in his career when things go south. If you take a look at the pitchers who have SIM scores close to his (especially related to K/9), you'll see that hardly any of them had success after the age 30. They walked too close to the fire.

I wish we had an idea of how good Lopez AAA numbers are--a historical perspective.

21 or 22 years old.
500 AB's.
.360 OBP
.490 SLG

Players with those kind of numbers tend to pan out.

WOY can you run some comps? It would be great if we could compare apples to apples...how well did Jeter do? Tejada? etc...If we could compare players who generated numbers like his we could see how well he might perform.

It was a good trade.

westofyou
12-16-2002, 01:15 PM
WOY can you run some comps? It would be great if we could compare apples to apples...how well did Jeter do?

Using 400 ab's as bottom and 700 as tops we get (since 1990) 16 times (11 players)who have achieved those numbers before age 23.


T BATS YEAR AB AB OBA SLG AGE
1 Alex Rodriguez 1998 686 686 .360 .560 22
2 Andruw Jones 2000 656 656 .366 .541 23
3 Vladimir Guerrero 1998 623 623 .371 .589 22
4 Vladimir Guerrero 1999 610 610 .378 .600 23
T5 Alex Rodriguez 1996 601 601 .414 .631 20
T5 Scott Rolen 1998 601 601 .391 .532 23
T7 Albert Pujols 2002 590 590 .394 .561 22
T7 Albert Pujols 2001 590 590 .403 .610 21
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 1993 582 582 .408 .617 23
10 Ken Griffey Jr. 1992 565 565 .361 .535 22
11 Troy Glaus 2000 563 563 .404 .604 23
12 Frank Thomas 1991 559 559 .453 .553 23
13 Gary Sheffield 1992 557 557 .385 .580 23
14 Ken Griffey Jr. 1991 548 548 .399 .527 21
15 Juan Gonzalez 1993 536 536 .368 .632 23
16 Manny Ramirez 1995 484 484 .402 .558 23

-----------------------
SS all time who have done it

-----------------------

AT BATS YEAR AB AB OBA SLG AGE
1 Alex Rodriguez 1998 686 686 .360 .560 22
2 Cal Ripken 1983 663 663 .371 .517 22
3 Cal Ripken 1984 641 641 .374 .510 23
4 Alex Rodriguez 1996 601 601 .414 .631 20
5 Joe Cronin 1930 587 587 .422 .513 23
6 Arky Vaughan 1934 558 558 .431 .511 22
7 Arky Vaughan 1935 499 499 .491 .607 23
------------------------------------

2nd basemen

NONE

------------------------------------

3rd basemen

AT BATS YEAR AB AB OBA SLG AGE
1 Freddy Lindstrom 1928 646 646 .383 .511 22
2 Woody English 1930 638 638 .430 .511 23
3 Dick Allen 1964 632 632 .382 .557 22
4 Dick Allen 1965 619 619 .375 .494 23
5 Scott Rolen 1998 601 601 .391 .532 23
6 Albert Pujols 2001 590 590 .403 .610 21
7 Eddie Mathews 1953 579 579 .406 .627 21
8 Harlond Clift 1936 576 576 .424 .514 23
9 Troy Glaus 2000 563 563 .404 .604 23
10 Gary Sheffield 1992 557 557 .385 .580 23
11 Eddie Mathews 1955 499 499 .413 .601 23
12 Eddie Mathews 1954 476 476 .423 .603 22
13 Jimmie Foxx 1928 400 400 .416 .548 20

---------------------------------

Jeter at 22

DEREK JETER

1996

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1996 Yankees 22 157 582 104 183 25 6 10 1.72 78 48 102 14 7 .314 .430 .370 .800
TOTALS 157 582 104 183 25 6 10 1.72 78 48 102 14 7 .314 .430 .370 .800
LG AVERAGE 562 87 156 30 3 19 3.47 82 61 100 10 5 .277 .445 .350 .795
POS AVERAGE 548 79 147 28 4 13 2.45 72 45 86 11 5 .268 .407 .325 .732

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1996 Yankees 93 3 19 .511 5.79 250 41 .115 .210 .465 1 9 6 9 13 434 654 SS
TOTALS 93 3 19 .511 5.79 250 41 .115 .210 .465 1 9 6 9 13 434 654
LG AVERAGE 89 0 0 .500 5.55 250 52 .168 .287 .487 4 5 4 5 14 434 638
POS AVERAGE 73 -16 0 .404 4.55 223 45 .139 .233 .440 1 4 9 6 13 434 611


Tejada

------------------------------

MIGUEL TEJADA

1998

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1998 A's 22 105 365 53 85 20 1 11 3.01 45 28 86 5 6 .233 .384 .298 .681
TOTALS 105 365 53 85 20 1 11 3.01 45 28 86 5 6 .233 .384 .298 .681
LG AVERAGE 388 56 105 21 2 12 3.20 53 38 71 8 4 .272 .432 .340 .773
POS AVERAGE 384 54 105 19 3 8 2.21 44 25 62 11 5 .273 .403 .323 .726

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1998 A's 40 -13 -6 .373 3.59 140 32 .151 .225 .412 0 7 4 3 8 301 407 SS
TOTALS 40 -13 -6 .373 3.59 140 32 .151 .225 .412 0 7 4 3 8 301 407
LG AVERAGE 58 0 0 .500 5.18 168 35 .161 .271 .474 2 4 3 4 9 301 436
POS AVERAGE 50 -7 0 .433 4.50 155 30 .130 .211 .436 0 4 6 3 9 301 422

-----------------------

Nomar at 22

NOMAR GARCIAPARRA

1996

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1996 Redsox 22 24 87 11 21 2 3 4 4.60 16 4 14 5 0 .241 .471 .272 .743
TOTALS 24 87 11 21 2 3 4 4.60 16 4 14 5 0 .241 .471 .272 .743
LG AVERAGE 88 14 24 5 0 3 3.47 13 10 16 2 1 .277 .445 .350 .795
POS AVERAGE 86 12 23 4 1 2 2.45 11 7 14 2 1 .268 .407 .325 .732

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1996 Redsox 12 -3 0 .397 4.76 41 9 .230 .333 .543 0 0 1 1 0 68 93 SS
TOTALS 12 -3 0 .397 4.76 41 9 .230 .333 .543 0 0 1 1 0 68 93
LG AVERAGE 14 0 0 .500 5.55 39 8 .168 .287 .487 1 1 1 1 2 68 100
POS AVERAGE 11 -3 0 .404 4.55 35 7 .139 .233 .440 0 1 1 1 2 68 96


-----------------------

Barry at 23

BARRY LARKIN

1987

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1987 Reds 23 125 439 64 107 16 2 12 2.73 43 36 52 21 6 .244 .371 .306 .678
TOTALS 125 439 64 107 16 2 12 2.73 43 36 52 21 6 .244 .371 .306 .678
LG AVERAGE 455 62 122 22 3 13 2.91 59 47 74 14 6 .269 .419 .339 .758
POS AVERAGE 442 51 108 19 4 6 1.33 41 36 70 11 4 .245 .344 .304 .648

YEAR TEAM RC RCAA RCAP OWP RC/G TB EBH ISO SEC BPA IBB HBP SAC SF GIDP OUTS PA POS
1987 Reds 52 -16 3 .372 3.97 163 30 .128 .244 .437 3 5 5 3 8 354 488 SS
TOTALS 52 -16 3 .372 3.97 163 30 .128 .244 .437 3 5 5 3 8 354 488
LG AVERAGE 66 0 0 .500 5.01 191 39 .150 .271 .469 6 2 3 3 10 354 511
POS AVERAGE 47 -19 0 .343 3.57 152 29 .099 .195 .391 5 3 5 2 9 354 487

REDREAD
12-16-2002, 01:20 PM
This trade stinks, pure and simple.
Even if we pull a good starting pitcher to "replace" Elmer, that's not enough. You can't win with just one reliable starting pitcher.
We've been waiting since 1997 for the glorious 2003.. but it appears that the front office is throwing in the towel already. Man, I hope they make some moves to try and win next year, but so far it's just the traditional Christmas salary dumping.

We got robbed on this trade. Pure and simple. Elmer should've fetched a lot more than 1 prospect. I know this kid is hyped, but let's look at the law of averages.. he's most likely to be an average guy like Todd Walker.

So far, it looks like we are stuck in perpetual rebuild mode. For crying out loud, they tried to dump Jr.. Yes, I know Jr has been hurt, but he's still key to us having a prayer to compete in the immediate future.

How could we gut our starting rotation? I don't care if Elmer would've made 4 million in arb. Who are we going to find for 4 million on the free agent market that will put up similiar numbers?
Or are we going to have to sell the farm in a trade to get a guy similiar?

This is a really dumb trade. Same old crap from John Allen... salary dumps.

Thanks for making the point about Arnold for me princeton :)

J "Cooper"
12-16-2002, 01:24 PM
WOY: thanks for the info. His MLB comps tend to fall in line with some of the guys listed.

What i was hoping for was to see his AAA comps.

What were their numbers like in AAA. The year previous to these numbers--well heck i could look that up on Waymore Sports.

We'll compare Larkin, Nomar, Jeter, Tejada at the same age--AAA.

Back in a minute.

haassolo
12-16-2002, 01:34 PM
we develop a SS, his name was Pokey Reese and we hated his attitude and his disappearing bat

J "Cooper"
12-16-2002, 01:59 PM
I did a quick perusal of minor league stats. I hope i do this justice.


Larkin played AA ball at age of 21. He had 255 AB's with an OPS of .674. The next year -age 22-he had 418 AB's and had a .933 OPS. Probably need to adjust his OPS downward by 60 or 70 points cause he played in Denver. Adjusted OPS is .840.

He was in the majors the next year and put up numbers similar to Lopez's numbers.


Nomar played A at age 21. He had 105 AB's with an OPS of .775. The next year he played AA. He had an OPS of .772. He tore up AAA at age 23 and was in the majors at age 24.



Jeter played AAA at age 21. His OPS was .816. He had relatively immediate success in the majors.


Tejada played AA at age 22. He had an OPS of .802.
* recently he has had some age adjustments that have come to light--not sure if the problems are true.


All that is to say:

1. The younger a player in a league-the greater the chances for stardom. There are not a large amount of comps for Lopez because it's rare that 21/22 year old players make it to the majors. This alone points toward stardom. Young players who have success in AAA are rare. It just doesn't happen very often. When it does that player usually achieves stardom.

2. Most of the players I compared Lopez to struggled when they first reached the bigs. It took them a while to make the adjustment, but they took a big step forward at age 23/24.

3. Are there other 21/22 year old SS/2nd basemen that you can compare Lopez to that shed a negative light? Are there MIF's who have had those numbers and then went kerplunck? My guess is they'd be hard to find. (don't forget those good AAA numbers!)

Lastly, Toronto already stamped the ticket as it relates to playing time. We should be able to reap teh benefits.

REDREAD
12-16-2002, 02:21 PM
I wonder how many draft picks that 1/3 million we sent to Arizona is going to cost us?

Think if that money was available this year or previous years.

This SS kid probably has a good chance as any prospect, but I agree with M2, we should've gotten either a sure thing with the kid, or multiple prospects.

Remember the Neagle deal? That deal was supposedly going to reload us, and now we are down to hoping Willy Mo is able to stick in the bigs, because everyone else flamed out. Real close to an 0-for-4 there.

We dump Walker, then have to trade Dessens for Walker's replacement, and we try to trade Jr with no one in the wings to play CF. What the hell is going on? Oh yeah, salary dumping. This is what we waited 6 years for. The Reds had better make some moves that will actually help them win next year. John Allen promised that the new stadium would make us competitive. Time to pay the piper and start adding players instead of subtracting them.

EmtyRedsFan
12-16-2002, 02:30 PM
Nice long thread! I bet this is really good but im not going to read all of it :)

guernsey
12-16-2002, 06:42 PM
Originally posted by princeton
I'm waiting for Redread to point out that had we signed Jason Arnold for $60,000 after we drafted him in 1999, we could have dealt him even up for Felipe Lopez and kept Elmer Dessens

Nah, if the Reds had signed him he would have had TJ surgery by now.