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Ghosts of 1990
11-07-2009, 08:38 AM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/11/06/what_can_the_reds_possibly_do.html


What can the Reds possibly do?
By Hal McCoy | Friday, November 6, 2009, 12:03 AM

The Empire won, as expected - even though it was the first time since 2000, even with baseballís highest payroll every year since their previous championship in 2000.

I refrain from calling the New York Yankees the Evil Empire because they are playing within the rules, as skewered as the rules may be.

Their payroll this year was $220 million. Last winter they spent $450 million to sign three players to multi-year contracts - pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, plus first baseman Mark Teixiera.

What to do? What to do? Here is an idea. Letís break up the majors into two leagues - The Big Bucks League, for those teams who want to pay more than $100 million in salaries and The Spare Change League for those who want to pay less than $100 million.

This year, The Big Bucks League would have 11 teams:

NY Yankees $220,097,414

NY Mets $145,367,987

Chicago Cubs $134,058,500

Boston $122,435,399

Detroit $119,160,145

LA Angels $118,964,000

Seattle $112,053,666

Philadelphia $111,209,046

Houston $102,996,414

Chicago Sox $100,598,500

LA Dodgers $100,008,592

Absurd? Maybe so. Maybe it makes as much sense as the way things are done right now.

THAT BRINGS US to the Cincinnati Reds and what they can do? Disband? Join the Class AAA International League? Drop back 15 yards and punt?

Under current rules, there is no way, none, zip, nada that the Reds can ever win.

Some might say, ďWell, the St. Louis Cardinals compete every year and their payroll this year was only $87.5 million.Ē

The Reds had the 17th highest payroll (out of 30) at $73.5 million, so whatís another $12 million? Well, it is a whole bunch when you donít have it. And it is a whole bunch when your attendance took a horrendous downturn last season.

And the Reds front office already is on record as saying they wonít increase payroll. Probably it will be reduced.

What can you do when you start things off with four players owed $46 million next year - closer Francisco Cordero ($12 million), pitcher Aaron Harang ($12 million), pitcher Bronson Arroyo ($11 million) and third baseman Scott Rolen ($11 million)?

That leaves $27 million for the other 21 players and with the average salary in major-league baseball at $3.27 million, where does that leave the Reds? Mostly standing with empty cash bags.

General manager Walt Jocketty needs to do two things as fast as he can this winter: (One) Trade Cordero. (Two) Trade Harang.

By trading Cordero, the Reds not only save $12 million this year, they save $13 million next year. An expensive closer for a sub-mediocre team is an unnecessary evil. Itís a job Nick Masset can do.

By trading Harang, the Reds save another $11 million. Harang has had two straight down years, but he is still marketable. Several scouts told me late last year that their teams would be happy to deal for Harang.

BUT FOR 2010, thatís still only a savings of $23 million, which isnít going to buy you much on the free agent market. Just look at how much the Yankees paid.

The Reds could only afford middle-of-the-road free agents and then theyíre taking a chance. Will the guy be good or will he be an expensive flop. Itís one reason Jocketty says the Reds wonít dabble much in the free agent cash parties. And I donít blame him.

There is only one way the Reds can win a division title. Every player, and thatís every player, has to have a season that is better than the back of his baseball card. How often does that happen? The nth of never?

They could get by with the same year from first baseman Joey Votto. If they can talk catcher Ramon Hernandez into taking a cut from his $8 million option and sign for maybe $3 million and he has a career year, that would help.

Brandon Phillips needs to return to his numbers of two years ago, not the year he had last year and he has to eliminate all the selfish things he does and the things he does that distracts from the team.

They need a better hitting shortstop than Paul Janish - and good luck with that.

They need Scott Rolen to hit more homers and hit .300 and stay healthy all year - and good luck with that.

They need to sign Jonny Gomes, who hit 20 home runs in about half a season. Indications are, though, that they wonít offer him arbitration.

They need Drew Stubbs to be the player he was in September and thatís possible. They need right fielder Jay Bruce to prove he can hit major-league pitching, something he hasnít come close to doing that last season-and-a-half.

They need Arroyo to pitch even better than he did last year, pitch all year the way he did the second half. They need Homer Bailey to be the pitcher he was the second half. They need Johnny Cueto to come around the way Bailey did.

Those are all Big Needs - and good luck with that.

Redsfan320
11-07-2009, 10:04 AM
Some Comments:


By trading Cordero, the Reds not only save $12 million this year, they save $13 million next year. An expensive closer for a sub-mediocre team is an unnecessary evil. It’s a job Nick Masset can do.

Masset definitely would be capable of closing-- how he pitched this year proved that. However, would he be a good enough closer?


They need a better hitting shortstop than Paul Janish - and good luck with that.

Yes, I think they do. Gold glove defense, while a valuable asset, just isn't enough (even though SS is typically a weak offensive position). I'm not sure who they should get though. (But leave Brandon at 2B)


They need Drew Stubbs to be the player he was in September and that’s possible.

IMHO, this guy could be the CF we've been looking for the past few years (as well as the leadoff hitter). He seems to be a good hitter-- with a bit of power even-- and he's great in the field.


They need Arroyo to... pitch all year the way he did the second half.

That's kinda all there is to it with Bronson. He always is so bad the first half, but then comes back the second half so that you don't want to trade him.


They need to sign Jonny Gomes, who hit 20 home runs in about half a season. Indications are, though, that they won’t offer him arbitration.


I really hope they make the offer. I like Gomes, and his 20 HR in1/2 season, alot. My dream OF for 2010 is this: Gomes LF, Stubbs CF, and an improved Bruce RF.

Also, I agree with what Hal said about Cueto and Homer, about them keeping their production up. I also like what he said about Votto, Rolen, and BP.
No comments about it, I just belive that what he said about them is true.

Also, Bruce needs to do alot better with the bat than he did in '09. I would like to see around a .320 OBP (at least), in additon to 30 HR; and of course the Ks need to be cut down alot.

320

bounty37h
11-09-2009, 11:54 AM
I couldnt/wouldnt make it all the way through that, los tme when he implied the Reds cant win cause they cant spend. Its that they wont spend, or spend wisely, that hinders this team, we take on dumb contracts on bad players. Its up to the owners to pony up money to put a good product on the field, put that product up, the wins come, wins come, fans come, fans come, more money comes in. Not a hard concept to grasp IMO.

RedLegsToday
11-09-2009, 02:21 PM
Masset definitely would be capable of closing-- how he pitched this year proved that. However, would he be a good enough closer?


The Phillies got to the World Series this year with a closer that put up an era over 7. And that wasn't just one or two bad appearances throwing his era out of whack. Lidge was bad all year.

Redsfan320
11-09-2009, 05:32 PM
The Phillies got to the World Series this year with a closer that put up an era over 7. And that wasn't just one or two bad appearances throwing his era out of whack. Lidge was bad all year.

Yes they did, but the reason they could get away with having a bad closer is that the rest of the team was as good as it was. The reds, on the other hand, are often only ahead by 1 or 2 runs in the ninth, so they need a pretty solid closer.

320

Redsfan320
11-09-2009, 05:34 PM
Its up to the owners to pony up money to put a good product on the field, put that product up, the wins come, wins come, fans come, fans come, more money comes in. Not a hard concept to grasp IMO.

Exactly. The owners refuse to spend. They need to invest. Put a good team on the field, then you'll get that money back.

320

IrishDavidKY
11-09-2009, 06:46 PM
Exactly. The owners refuse to spend. They need to invest. Put a good team on the field, then you'll get that money back.

320

It's amazing how things will fall into to place when you put a good product on the field.

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 04:15 AM
One thing they can do is quit wasting money on over-the-hill players (Rolen) and players who only participate in 1/21st of the season (Cordero).

Rolen won't hit next year among the top 2/3rd's of starting 3rd Basemen next season at a position where hitting is more important than fielding. He'll also be a step or two slower than more than half of all the starters at 3B next season, making him a liability defensively, too.

Cordero just doesn't pitch enough innings in a season (70, or 1/21st of the defensive season, total innings pitched) to justify 1/6th of the total payroll. And, he doesn't bat, so he contributes nothing on the offensive side.

Get rid of both of these players, WHATEVER IT TAKES.

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 04:16 AM
They need to invest. Put a good team on the field, then you'll get that money back.



And, don't be stupid by doing things like the Rolen trade and Cordero signing. If Cordero pitched 70 perfect innings, he wouldn't be worth 1/6th of the Total payroll.

Redsfan320
11-11-2009, 08:58 AM
Just a second, Kingspoint. Rolen is going to be slower in the field; I doubt it. And if he is he'll make up for it with his diving skill. I don't think he'll be a problem offensively either.

As for Cordero, the 1/21st of a season he pitches is a very important 1/21st of the season.
That's why closers are so valuable. Because whenever the game is on the line at the very end, they're the ones who get callled in.

320

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 01:39 PM
Just a second, Kingspoint. Rolen is going to be slower in the field; I doubt it. And if he is he'll make up for it with his diving skill. I don't think he'll be a problem offensively either.

As for Cordero, the 1/21st of a season he pitches is a very important 1/21st of the season.
That's why closers are so valuable. Because whenever the game is on the line at the very end, they're the ones who get callled in.

320

You can doubt it all you want, but last year AND the year before he was already a full step slower.

He has no range. That's not a debatable statement. It's a fact accepted by all who watched him and the rest of the 3rd basemen on any kind of a regular basis last season.

Sorry, but all players dive for the ball. You don't make up for range by diving for a ball. You play defense with your feet. When you don't have that any more you don't have defense. He has to play closer to the line now, AND, he gives up more doubles now even though he's playing closer to the line. He gives up a ton more singles to his left. He turns fewer double plays because he can't get to the ball anymore. He's totally useless.

Forget his past. It's over. Kennedy's dead. Lincoln's dead. McKinley's dead. What's past is past. Guys get old and they all get old at the same rate. Scott Rolen's been getting older every year and getting slower with both the bat and his feet and his eyes are getting worse and his attention span is getting worse for several years. That's one of the reasons he's hopping around from team to team.

Stop reading his baseball card. He's not who you think he is. He's a below average 3rd Baseman being paid like a Hall-of-Famer by a small-market franchise that can't afford him and others like him. At least Cordero produces when he plays.

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 01:41 PM
As for Cordero, the 1/21st of a season he pitches is a very important 1/21st of the season.
That's why closers are so valuable. Because whenever the game is on the line at the very end, they're the ones who get callled in.



They can't afford to pay anyone 1/6th of the total payroll provide 1/6th of the total production.

That would be like having a house with furniture in only 2 of the rooms with every other room left empty, where you're saying, "But, those are nice rooms."

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 01:44 PM
Sorry, Redsfan320 about being so hard on you. The Scott Rolen thing makes me so mad every time I think about it. I'm not going to post again for at least 4 months. I've got to take a hiatus from Walt Jockety.

Redsfan320
11-11-2009, 02:24 PM
Don't worry about it. Discussions get a little heated on here sometimes. Perhaps Rolen is losing some range. I'm not giving up on Cordero though. :p:

320

KiefMoon
11-12-2009, 06:13 PM
You can doubt it all you want, but last year AND the year before he was already a full step slower.

He has no range. That's not a debatable statement. It's a fact accepted by all who watched him and the rest of the 3rd basemen on any kind of a regular basis last season.

Sorry, but all players dive for the ball. You don't make up for range by diving for a ball. You play defense with your feet. When you don't have that any more you don't have defense. He has to play closer to the line now, AND, he gives up more doubles now even though he's playing closer to the line. He gives up a ton more singles to his left. He turns fewer double plays because he can't get to the ball anymore. He's totally useless.

Forget his past. It's over. Kennedy's dead. Lincoln's dead. McKinley's dead. What's past is past. Guys get old and they all get old at the same rate. Scott Rolen's been getting older every year and getting slower with both the bat and his feet and his eyes are getting worse and his attention span is getting worse for several years. That's one of the reasons he's hopping around from team to team.

Stop reading his baseball card. He's not who you think he is. He's a below average 3rd Baseman being paid like a Hall-of-Famer by a small-market franchise that can't afford him and others like him. At least Cordero produces when he plays.


Got a question for ya... Would you have traded Perez after 76???

BEETTLEBUG
11-12-2009, 07:46 PM
NO I would have not traded Tony