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Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 05:07 AM
So, what the heck was he thinking trading away an excellent pitching prospect for the over-the-hill exhorbitantly priced, has-been by the name of Scott Rolen?

Walt's senile.

Go Bengals!!!

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/1...-be-dealt.html

Add the Reds to the list of teams that are slashing, rather than spending, this off-season. Fanhouse's Ed Price and Jeff Fletcher are reporting that Cincinnati is looking to cut their payroll from $71MM in 2009 to between the $65-$70MM range next season. While it may not sound like much of a reduction, Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Reds as owing just under $66MM to just ten players for next season, leaving little room to fill out the rest of the roster.

Lagging attendance figures are to blame for the Reds' financial cutbacks. Price and Fletcher noted that attendance at the Great American Ballpark dropped by more than 15 percent from 2008 to 2009. General manager Walt Jocketty was quoted in the piece as saying, "We're going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the past...It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

If Cincinnati does make a deal, the likeliest candidates to be moved are second baseman Brandon Phillips (owed just under $7MM in 2010), and pitchers Aaron Harang ($12.5MM) and Bronson Arroyo ($12.25MM). Phillips, with his .452 slugging percentage over the last four seasons, is the most attractive candidate to other clubs given his power from the second base position and reasonable contract. Harang and Arroyo are both coming off decent years themselves, but Price and Fletcher speculate that their bigger contract numbers would require the Reds to absorb a chunk of their salaries if traded.

One star player who looks to be staying in Cincinnati is closer Francisco Cordero, who Price and Fletcher say the club "would prefer to keep" despite the $25MM he's owed through 2011. A very intriguing trade chip could be young slugger Joey Votto, if the Reds wanted to make room for star prospect Yonder Alonso at first base. Another team could be convinced to take on a bad contract if it meant getting Votto, who isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.

Alpha Zero
11-11-2009, 07:07 AM
Honestly, I think that this article is garbage. I don't see any way that the Reds deal Votto this off season, and I'm not really sure why the Reds would be more inclined to dump guys like Arroyo and Harang (who give you 200 innings) over a guy like Cordero (who may give you 60 innings). It seems like the authors of this article cherry-picked a quote of Walt saying "we aren't going to have much to spend" and then went crazy with speculation. I don't put much stock in this particular rumor at all.

Lockdwn11
11-11-2009, 08:05 AM
Trade Votto as a throw in so a team would take on one of our bad contracts? Are you kidding me? I know some people love Yonder Alonso on this board but lets face it none of us know that he will ever come close to being the player Joey Votto is . If the Reds trade Votto and one of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Brandon Phillips it better be for Mega returns.

Alpha Zero
11-11-2009, 09:12 AM
I'd say that there's an outside chance of Phillips being dealt if the return is good enough due to the fact that he is about to get expensive, is probably at peak value, and Frazier is ready to pick up a lot of the slack. With that said, I don't think that Brandon will be moved because Jocketty seems to place a premium on a guy's defensive abilities.

I consider Votto to be untouchable. It's possible that he had a career year in 2009, but the fact of the matter is that he's the only guy in the Reds' lineup that the opposition attempted to pitch around last year. He is considered an offensive threat by the rest of the league and the fans already love the guy. There's tremendous value in that.

I think the Reds' front office needs to accept that Harang and Arroyo are useful but overpaid pieces. I don't know that there's any point to trying to deal these guys right now. It's going to be difficult to get a deal done at this juncture without kicking in salary or a good prospect. There's just no reason to kick in value when you can buy both of them out after the season or try to deal one of these guys at the AS break without having to give away cash or prospects. Cordero is expendable, but there likely aren't any takers on him, and again, kicking in value just to move a guy is just so senseless to me.

In the end, I don't buy what the authors of this particular article are selling for one second. I certainly hope that I'm right.

bounty37h
11-11-2009, 09:29 AM
Great, lets spend less and be even worse, driving even more fans away from the park adn the Reds. This franchise deserves better.

Redsfan320
11-11-2009, 10:02 AM
If the Reds trade Votto and one of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Brandon Phillips it better be for Mega returns.

Darn right, it better be.


Great, lets spend less and be even worse, driving even more fans away from the park adn the Reds.

That's the plan.

320

will5979
11-11-2009, 10:04 AM
I doubt I could but I wish I could get a message to the owners. 82 wins next year or I walk away from being a fan...and if I don't root for the Reds I don't root for anyone. I wish others felt as I did. Maybe the fans could make a difference if we decide to protest and not attend ballgames hopefully stopping this garbage while demanding a winner in Cincy.

IF THE BENGALS CAN DO IT WHY THE HELL CAN'T THE REDS? THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

CySeymour
11-11-2009, 10:19 AM
IF THE BENGALS CAN DO IT WHY THE HELL CAN'T THE REDS? THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

You can't compare MLB and NFL.

My biggest problem with the Reds isn't necessarily the big league payroll, it's that they seem to live on the cheap with the minor league system. If BCast wants to compete, he needs to pour capitol into the minor league system and become a player development machine.

will5979
11-11-2009, 10:24 AM
You can't compare MLB and NFL.

My biggest problem with the Reds isn't necessarily the big league payroll, it's that they seem to live on the cheap with the minor league system. If BCast wants to compete, he needs to pour capitol into the minor league system and become a player development machine.

I slowly beginning to despise MLB baseball, not the game itself, but the MLB...this just ain't right.

GIDP
11-11-2009, 11:10 AM
"It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

ha guess who just decided to not go to many reds games this year based on this story.

Vottomatic
11-11-2009, 12:29 PM
Geez. Just when I was seeing a ray of light for the Reds, an article like this comes along and blows it all away.

If Joey Votto gets traded, I'm done as a fan. Not even close to exaggerating. In my book......he's the face and future of this team. I'd trade Jay Bruce before I traded Votto.

If they want to trade one of either Harang or Arroyo, then fine. I don't get the urgency, since both of their contracts are up after next season. Fine. But it seems like everything has been building to this point, and that you'd want to see how it plays out before unloading players and giving up.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html

In '11, Cordero makes $12.125M and Phillips salary increases to $11.2M. They have $2M buyouts on both Harang and Cordero. And Yonder's salary will be $1M.

I can see why they want to trade Phillips. $11M is too much for this club for a 2B. Frazier is probably ready to take over. If they unload Phillips, they probably have one of the cheapest payrolls in the majors in '11 and '12. Rolen is off the books after '10.

What is one more season? Go for it with what we have. If we're out of contention, then unload them at the trading deadline.

I was actually excited about next season until I read this article.

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 02:22 PM
Honestly, I think that this article is garbage. I don't see any way that the Reds deal Votto this off season, and I'm not really sure why the Reds would be more inclined to dump guys like Arroyo and Harang (who give you 200 innings) over a guy like Cordero (who may give you 60 innings). It seems like the authors of this article cherry-picked a quote of Walt saying "we aren't going to have much to spend" and then went crazy with speculation. I don't put much stock in this particular rumor at all.

I agree. I could care less about the article. My only interest was the one quote:

"We're going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the past...It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

Kingspoint
11-11-2009, 02:28 PM
"It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

ha guess who just decided to not go to many reds games this year based on this story.

He knew this was the plan 4 months ago. If not, he's an idiot and should be fired.

So, since he knew this, why did he trade away a quality pitcher for an over-the-hill, can't-play-defense-anymore-because-he-has-no-range, hasn't-been-able-to-hit-in-4-years, overpriced Scott Rolen with the quote, "We see him in our future in 2010"?

The only General Management Jockety can do is if he has a top-5 payroll, which anybody could do.

Red in Atl
11-11-2009, 03:26 PM
I wouldn't waste my time with that article. Anyone bringing up trading Votto is just wishing their team could have him. Total BS. Alonzo hasn't proven anything, and until he proves himself to be MLB ready (hopefully in ST '10), Votto is the 1st baseman.

All talk is just baseball guys being bored. I wouldn't do much of anything if I were the Reds. They finally have a young core of players who could develop into stars. Let's ride them out until we can't afford them.

The one thing I would try to do is deal Cordero. Everyone else can improve on their past, regain past form and be integral parts to a playoff team. And we can afford it. The guy who may miss out is Gomes, and that sucks.

Spring Training will tell all. Here's my wish list for after ST:

Stubbs/Dickerson CF
Phillips SS
Votto LF
Alonzo 1st
Rolen 3rd
Bruce RF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Frazier/FA/Francisco? 2nd

Bench: Stubbs/Dickerson, Janish, Hernandez/Hanigan, Francisco/Frazier, Nix

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney/Owings/Lehr

Herrara, Rhodes, Bray, Fisher, Lincoln, Viola, Owings, Masset, Burton (pick 7, my pref. in bold with Masset/Burton/Rhodes sharing closer duties)

If Alonzo isn't ready, Gomes starts in LF and Votto goes back to 1st. Philips should be a SS. Much easier to fill 2nd. Could Francisco play 2nd? Could he play left and become Gomes if we don't offer Gomes ARB?

I think this is a good mix of young and old. I also don't think Castellini will hold Rolen's salary against the team, especially if they are playing well come May - June. Trading Cordero would be great to free up some cash, but I want to see what these guys can do together for a full ST and season opening, before I start trading guys away just because they make a lot of money. With Cordero we have replacements I believe, but trading Harang or Arroyo will come back to bite us with Volquez on the DL.

And how about bringing back Volquez after the All-star break. That's like trading for a number one guy, assuming he's back to form. I know the economics of baseball blows and especially blows for the Reds, but I feel good about this team. They have good character and a lot of the guys have come up together, which really helps. There is a collective "Need" to win at this level with those guys.

Here's to hope :beerme:

Vottomatic
11-11-2009, 05:14 PM
I see alot of options for this team depending who's hitting.

Votto could move to LF if Alonso or Francisco emerge. They could play 1B. I like 1B to be power hitters.

Moving Phillips to SS is not out of the question if Frazier would emerge as a viable option at 2B.

If Francisco played 3B, why didn't they try him at 2B in the minors?

If Heisey is still tearing the cover off the ball, he should be given a chance at LF.

Tons of options. Only problem is that these players haven't exactly played some of these positions.

Griffey012
11-11-2009, 08:35 PM
I doubt I could but I wish I could get a message to the owners. 82 wins next year or I walk away from being a fan...and if I don't root for the Reds I don't root for anyone. I wish others felt as I did. Maybe the fans could make a difference if we decide to protest and not attend ballgames hopefully stopping this garbage while demanding a winner in Cincy.

IF THE BENGALS CAN DO IT WHY THE HELL CAN'T THE REDS? THIS IS RIDICULOUS!

Then you will just end up without a baseball team in cincinnati. And that would be a really sad day.

will5979
11-12-2009, 09:20 AM
Then you will just end up without a baseball team in cincinnati. And that would be a really sad day.

Does it really matter? Sometimes I think to myself maybe its best that the Reds fold it up for a while (at least until salary rules are changed)...granted that wouldn't be the popular thing to do but I guess I have to much pride to look forward to another losing season. This so called MLB franchise this decade has tarnished and ruined the reputation of the classic Reds teams and dynasties. My body has grown numb to the losing, I expect it now. After stupid David Weathers gave up the Grand Slam to Pujols last July not another single loss hurt. I knew they were done for the season. I don't expect anything next year but its simple, the owners are not true fans, they don't care about winning, the fans, and the tradition of the franchse, and their number one motive is business.

I haven't TRUELY enjoyed watching an entire Reds baseball season since 2000(and even then Jack McKeon cost us a few games with his managerial decisions), I remember battling with the Cardinals that summer and they came to Riverfront for a 4 game series; in the pregame interview with Marty he said a split would be "ok." I thought to myself you jackass, this is the first place team, you are 5 games behind and you need AT LEAST 3 out of 4, way to be believe in your squad Jack! The beginning of 2002, 2004, and 2006 gave me some hope until Memorial Day, then we all know what happened to those teams. We can't compete and its embarrassing.

Teams that don't play in NY, Philly, LA, Boston, etc. should go ahead and split from MLB and form their own league.

Vottomatic
11-12-2009, 10:38 AM
What do you want? A losing team year or year or no team at all?

BC should really consider selling the team if he has no intention of trying to compete.

will5979
11-12-2009, 10:53 AM
What do you want? A losing team year or year or no team at all?

BC should really consider selling the team if he has no intention of trying to compete.

Honestly a few losing seasons here and there are acceptable but 9 straight? Gimme a break man.

Yes I would rather have no team at all if we aren't going to win.

I'm a very sore loser, I despise it and hate and have never taken it well.

mroby85
11-12-2009, 11:17 AM
I heard this on Mike and Mike on ESPN this morning. I swear if they unload again, i'm finished. There is no point in being a fan of this team when they continually show they don't really care about winning. I have a novel idea, how about instead of stinking for 10 years, and expecting fans to keep coming to games, you take the first step, bring in a team that raises the crowd numbers. I don't see how they can expect people to keep going and seeing this same old tired story year after year. If they trade Phillips, or Votto it's for no other reason than to free up payroll, and has nothing to do with winning or losing. If they trade Harang, or Arroyo, and don't use that money to sign a power bat, thats the same story. Extremely frustrated right now.

Girevik
11-12-2009, 11:17 AM
At some point, unless they get REALLY lucky with several prospects coming up at the same time and playing well, the Reds are going to have to take a loss for a couple of seasons to put a winner on the field. If they do that, ticket sales will raise and they can compete. As it is now, they're just in a self-feeding spiral.

Ticket sales are poor, revenue goes down, so they cut payroll. The team can't compete because of the low payroll, so fewer people come to the games. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Vottomatic
11-12-2009, 01:53 PM
Well, I just think they had some momentum with the fans, coming off the way the team finished, and the young guys producing excitement for next year.............and then they come out with this stupid statement and completely drop the ball.

Who's in charge of their publicity? Dumb move with the public.

redsfanmia
11-12-2009, 06:04 PM
I do not like the fact that the Reds are putting it on the fans by saying if ticket sales are brisk we might not have to dump. They should go all in or get out, the Reds have never tore it down and started over they have always tried to build by going half way. Dump everyone making any money or add pieces and go for it, don't tread in the middle.

KiefMoon
11-12-2009, 06:52 PM
"It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

ha guess who just decided to not go to many reds games this year based on this story.

Wow that's pathetic. I'm so sick of the whining and crying every off season about this team! Why don't you guys just buy some damn tickets so they have the cash to actually compete???? Tell me why that's such a bad idea??

And to all the moronic Rolen detractors who throw around the fantasy stats when discussing Rolen vs. EE, I'd love to know how many of you have ever won a team championship on any level higher then Little League baseball at Waterworks Park? Do you not realize that guys like Rolen are invaluable?? Did you not hear Votto & Bruce & Philips comments on how much they learned in just a short time from Rolen?? Rolen will be to this team what Perez was in the 70's, NOT the clutch hitter but the leader in the clubhouse, it's the part of baseball that doesn't have money ball or sabremetric science behind it. It's the part the fan can't actually see or look up on the internet. It's the part that makes good teams great. Why does no one else get that?????

Griffey012
11-12-2009, 10:53 PM
So we should just got out and spend an extra 30 million on payroll and still not win? With the exception of the Yankees in this years playoffs. The other good teams were built, not bought. Even the red sox were built. Yeah they have a high payroll, but hey acquired most all their great players through trades or FA signings at a low cost (ortiz) and then they hang on to their players.

We are just now starting to build through the draft. This will give us the pieces to build through trades. We have made efforts to retain our performing players such as Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo.

Spending 15 million on Jason Bay and 12 million on John Lackey and putting our payroll over 100 million do not put us in the playoffs.

We have to follow the model of the Twins, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, etc. Devlop talent, trade for talent, win, then increase the payroll to retain our performers.

fewfirstchoice
11-13-2009, 01:32 AM
Add Bay and Lackey to this Reds team and everyone stays healthy, they are 99.9% a playoff team. Its not going to happen but they would be a playoff squad.

C- Hernandez/Hannigan
1B- Votto
2B- Phillips
3B- Rolen
SS- Janish (you couls even play him here)
LF- Bay
CF- Stubbs
RF- Bruce

SP- Lackey
SP- Harang
SP- Arroyo
SP- Bailey
SP- Maloney or someone

Thats is a playoff club.

KiefMoon
11-13-2009, 03:49 AM
fewfirstchoicd, is your post in resppnse to mine? If so Im in no way saying they need to spend 30 mil on FA's. Im saying people need to support the young talented team we have now in for us to have any chance at a future. Until a commissioner driven by a love of the game or outright fairness (see Kennesaw M Landis) takes over for this joker we have to deal with now teams like the Reds will have to grow, draft talent and make key aquisitions WITH fan support. We dont need to throw around cash, but we do need to keep good young players and not make stupid ass trades like Hamilton for Volquez/Herrera.

Griffey012
11-13-2009, 05:43 AM
Add Bay and Lackey to this Reds team and everyone stays healthy, they are 99.9% a playoff team. Its not going to happen but they would be a playoff squad.

C- Hernandez/Hannigan
1B- Votto
2B- Phillips
3B- Rolen
SS- Janish (you couls even play him here)
LF- Bay
CF- Stubbs
RF- Bruce

SP- Lackey
SP- Harang
SP- Arroyo
SP- Bailey
SP- Maloney or someone

Thats is a playoff club.

And every season cubs fans say the same thing after their big FA acquisitions. A big FA or 2 doesn't change a team overnight unless we are talking a duo like CC and Tex. But in reality the yankees are the only team on the planet to make that kinda haul. There is no big positive for us to try and outbid the big boys for someone like Bay. They can afford to swing and miss, we can't. And the best way to make contact is through the farm system which we have been building, and through some solid trading.

will5979
11-13-2009, 09:01 AM
Wow that's pathetic. I'm so sick of the whining and crying every off season about this team! Why don't you guys just buy some damn tickets so they have the cash to actually compete???? Tell me why that's such a bad idea??

And to all the moronic Rolen detractors who throw around the fantasy stats when discussing Rolen vs. EE, I'd love to know how many of you have ever won a team championship on any level higher then Little League baseball at Waterworks Park? Do you not realize that guys like Rolen are invaluable?? Did you not hear Votto & Bruce & Philips comments on how much they learned in just a short time from Rolen?? Rolen will be to this team what Perez was in the 70's, NOT the clutch hitter but the leader in the clubhouse, it's the part of baseball that doesn't have money ball or sabremetric science behind it. It's the part the fan can't actually see or look up on the internet. It's the part that makes good teams great. Why does no one else get that?????

THANK YOU! If anyone thought that the Reds atmosphere turned around magically in mid-August your just plain ignorant. Scott Rolen when he returned from the DL propelled the Reds to a pretty good record mid August-October...put this same sqaud out next year minus Willy and Ramon and see what happens...barring any significant injuries this team will at the least win 81-88 games, which would be a nice change, then build on that, make a trade mid season to help, sign a FA next offseason, and expect 90+ wins and a playoff appearance in 2011.

mroby85
11-13-2009, 11:04 AM
Wow that's pathetic. I'm so sick of the whining and crying every off season about this team! Why don't you guys just buy some damn tickets so they have the cash to actually compete???? Tell me why that's such a bad idea??

And to all the moronic Rolen detractors who throw around the fantasy stats when discussing Rolen vs. EE, I'd love to know how many of you have ever won a team championship on any level higher then Little League baseball at Waterworks Park? Do you not realize that guys like Rolen are invaluable?? Did you not hear Votto & Bruce & Philips comments on how much they learned in just a short time from Rolen?? Rolen will be to this team what Perez was in the 70's, NOT the clutch hitter but the leader in the clubhouse, it's the part of baseball that doesn't have money ball or sabremetric science behind it. It's the part the fan can't actually see or look up on the internet. It's the part that makes good teams great. Why does no one else get that?????

Customers don't continue buying a crappy product hoping to give money to the business in order to create a better product. Customers buy a product after it's good. All the front office is doing is passing the buck for another salary dump. I live a couple hours away and went to 12 games this year, and I swear if they trade Phillips or Votto, I won't be attending this year. Maybe people are whining and crying because they haven't seen a winning season since 1999. I think there is plenty of reason to complain. If you really want to follow the Marlins model, they didn't have any fans, and spent very little money. Same with Tampa Bay, so If you're following that model, I guess you can't put it on the fans. Also something people never seem to remember is Florida picked up salary the 1st time they won the world series, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, etc. (there were more, but i don't remember all of them) Bottom line is, I've forwarded the $ going 10 years hoping they would win. It's their turn to pay it forward as Woody Hayes would say.

KiefMoon
11-13-2009, 05:29 PM
Customers don't continue buying a crappy product hoping to give money to the business in order to create a better product.

Cubs fans do, year after year. Do they win? No. Why? Bad moves just like the Yanks made for the first 8 years of this decade. Just because a guy has big numbers doesn't mean he'll mesh and integrate into the team.The Reds on the other hand aren't as far away as most people think. They won't trade Votto or Phillips or Bruce or Bailey. Walt is too smart for that. But if they just hang in there and let these kids develop they will have a hell of team. That is why Reds fans NEED to support them. I really don't think many people here realize how good this team could be.

CesarGeronimo
11-13-2009, 06:45 PM
Cubs fans do, year after year. Do they win? No. Why? Bad moves just like the Yanks made for the first 8 years of this decade. Just because a guy has big numbers doesn't mean he'll mesh and integrate into the team.The Reds on the other hand aren't as far away as most people think. They won't trade Votto or Phillips or Bruce or Bailey. Walt is too smart for that. But if they just hang in there and let these kids develop they will have a hell of team. That is why Reds fans NEED to support them. I really don't think many people here realize how good this team could be.

The Cubs have had a much better product than the Reds to draw fans to the stadium in recent years. The Reds have had nine straight losing seasons. The Cubs have had six winning seasons during those nine years (source:http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/). The Reds haven't been to the playoffs since 1995. During that time, the Cubs have been in the playoffs four times.

mroby85
11-13-2009, 06:52 PM
What he said. I'm only 22 years old, and haven't even seen this team be good. The best team I can remember is 1999, when they barely missed the playoffs. It gets really old after awhile.

FlyerFanatic
11-13-2009, 09:09 PM
it depends on how ticket sales go? wow. if jocketty is gonna try to put this on the fans...just get out. seriously. quit making excuses for your losing ways, get it done. the salary differential has been quite lopsided for awhile now, this isnt some new revelation. other small market teams field a winner, make it happen

Plus Plus
11-15-2009, 12:59 AM
fewfirstchoicd, is your post in resppnse to mine? If so Im in no way saying they need to spend 30 mil on FA's. Im saying people need to support the young talented team we have now in for us to have any chance at a future. Until a commissioner driven by a love of the game or outright fairness (see Kennesaw M Landis) takes over for this joker we have to deal with now teams like the Reds will have to grow, draft talent and make key aquisitions WITH fan support. We dont need to throw around cash, but we do need to keep good young players and not make stupid ass trades like Hamilton for Volquez/Herrera.

:confused: Can you enlighten me as to how the Hamilton-Volquez trade was stupid at all? I really fail to see how that trade is an example as to why the Reds have not been competing seriously over the last decade- especially considering that Hamilton, Volquez, and Herrera all had about the same amount of service time when the trade happened.

I am also 22 years old and follow the Reds more closely than almost anything else in my life. I understand as well as anybody here the frustration that fans feel in regards to competition and so on. However, the solution isn't simply "acquire good young players" or "sign free agents using the money that the team is making" or any other simple, one-sentence long fix.

The key to competing is to have more talent on your team than the other teams have. While this can mean acquiring good young players or signing free agents, it is something far beyond that. A successful team will be able to do all of these things simultaneously, and the Reds, while not on the right track, have figured out which train station to be at in order to reach the right track. This team is much more talented than the teams of the early 2000's.

If the posters on this forum want to see a successful product on the field, the first step is not to decide to never to come to games until the Reds are ready to win 82+ year in and year out, or to hope that the team moves so that fanhood can be abandoned, or to criticize the GM of the team for saying that season ticket renewals will dictate part of the budget (which is true, by the way.). The first step to seeing a successful product on the field is working towards an intimate understanding of what is on the field and why it is good or bad, and going from there- understanding what the team needs to become better, while understanding the team's position in the grander scheme.

Learning more about the team and baseball as a whole is what motivates me to go to a game, or two, or ten, or thirty in a year. It also makes for more interesting discussions than who will take the most drastic step against the team if they don't win 82+ in 2010.

brachial pleXUs
11-15-2009, 08:57 PM
Found this on a Mets blog:
"Sherman wonders whether or not the Reds would be willing to deal Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips in exchange for Luis Castillo and prospects Ruben Tejada and/or Brad Holt, as that could save the Reds $22.75 million in total."

Is it me, or is this somewhat insulting? I mean, I know that's a lot of money, but Castillo's in the twilight of his career, and even though last season was one of his best seasons at the plate, it wouldn't give the Reds half of Phillips's production. Brad Holt looks to be pretty good, but Ruben Tejada doesn't appear to be anything special. If they'd include a little more offensive production, then maybe.
Thoughts?

Plus Plus
11-15-2009, 09:13 PM
I don't find that trade idea particularly insulting, brachial. Luis Castillo had a particularly terrible year in 2008 with an ops+ of 77, but besides that year he posted ops+ seasons of 98 in 2009, 94 in 2007, 91 in 2006, and 108 in 2005. In fact, of his fourteen seasons in MLB, Castillo has ops+-ed over 90 in nine seasons, and of his five seasons of an ops+ of less than 90, three were his first three years in the league. I have no doubt, however, that he is in decline.

The question to ask in regards to this potential trade is if the Reds are a better team with Arroyo and Phillips in 2010 or with Lackey/big LF bat and Castillo in 2010, as the $22.75mm would assuredly be enough to get Lackey, Bay, Holliday, or any free agent in this class. I don't have an answer to that question, but i don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that option 2 (trade and sign FA) would be a marked improvement in 2010.

As for the prospects, I wouldn't know either way, as I don't know a whole lot about minor league baseball- i see that Tejada is a young SS who can hit relatively well for his young age, and that Holt is a young, apparently capable (looking at peripherals) starting pitching prospect. However, the money saved is the real point of a trade like that, not the action of obtaining Tejada or Holt.

KiefMoon
11-16-2009, 01:31 PM
:confused: Can you enlighten me as to how the Hamilton-Volquez trade was stupid at all? I really fail to see how that trade is an example as to why the Reds have not been competing seriously over the last decade- especially considering that Hamilton, Volquez, and Herrera all had about the same amount of service time when the trade happened.



Josh Hamilton's bat and glove will win more games then Volquez and the midget. They probably already have. Hell I might even keep a running tally in my signature this year. Hamilton is already a five tool player, Volquez has not proven he's a front line starter for the long haul. One 16 win year and then Tommy John surgery? Reminds me of Jack Armstrong.

Plus Plus
11-16-2009, 01:41 PM
Josh Hamilton's bat and glove will win more games then Volquez and the midget. They probably already have. Hamilton is already a five tool player, Volquez has not proven he's a front line starter for the long haul. One 16 win year and then Tommy John surgery? Reminds me of Jack Armstrong.

With all due respect, I think you are giving Mr. Hamilton (one of my favorite players when he was a Red, btw) more credit than he is due. For starters, his injury history is such that TEX is beginning to move him to RF, rather than CF. He is also going to be 29 in only his fourth season in MLB. While 2008 was a remarkably good year for Hamilton, last season he managed an ops+ of only 90 and an ops of .741 in only 89 games.

Volquez also had a remarkable 2008. However, even in his injury-plagued 2009 he still managed an era+ of 98. It seems to me that Volquez and Hamilton are equals in many regards, but imho having a SP who had an ace-like season with an era+ of 138 in 2008 is more valuable than an OF who had an ops+ of 130 in 2008, especially given that he may be moved off of CF down the line- something that dramatically affects his value.

However, the "throw-in" of Daniel Herrera really made the trade favor the reds a bit more. This "midget" ( :p: ) managed an era+ of 140 (!!!) last season while pitching in 70 games! League average RP are harder to find than many give credit for, and good-to-great ones are even harder to find than that.

While I will miss Hamilton, and respect his ability as a ballplayer, I am glad to see Volquez and Herrera as Reds going forward. :thumbup:

KiefMoon
11-16-2009, 01:58 PM
We'll have to agree to disagree. Especially if your basing your thoughts on Sabremetrics. I believe Sabremetrics are a nice tool if you want to play fantasy baseball but they don't tell the whole story. For example they have no way of telling or showing you why Scott Rolen was such a good pickup or why Pete Rose or Tony Perez were so great.

I don't base any of this on what has happened with Volquez's arm btw. Please understand I thought it was a **** deal the December day I read about the deal in the paper. I thought it was **** when they both were at the All-Star game. The guy is 29, in his prime, and has proven he can do it all. I never saw Herrera do anything where I said Wow! what a good pitcher. He looked like Weather's to me.

Kingspoint
11-18-2009, 06:13 AM
The key to competing is to have more talent on your team than the other teams have.

Not in every position.

You can win a World Series by subscribing to that in 4 positions/areas:

1. A staff Ace. Not any staff Ace, but one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball the year you win the World Series. He has to be good enough to beat the other teams' ACE in a 2-1 game. (We have 3 people who have the potential to be that one day in Bailey, Volquez and Cueto.

2. Excellent Defense throughout the team. All 8 of your players can have less "talent" (Talent, unfortunately, is 98% of the time associated with a player's Offensive abilities.), especially up the middle (Catcher/SS/2B/CF). We need to get that other midfield spot taken care of, but we've got CF in Dickerson and Stubbs, C in Hernandez and Hanigan, and half of the Infield Middle in Phillips.

3. A Top-5 end of the bullpen. This can often be accomplished with just 4 guys from a pitching staff that usually runs around 17 players throughout the season. If those 4 guys, who might total just 320 Innings on the year can be dominant (Top-3 when compared to every other team's Top-4 relievers), then games where the team can get a lead can be shortened to 6 innings. The #2 through #5 starters can be average this way and still give the team a lot of wins on the days they pitch well. We've got Cordero, but I don't see anyone after that. With Relievers, they tend to only have about a 2-1/2 year window where they are dominant (except for closers), so it's possible that 1 or 2 players could appear out of nowhere from the REDS' staff and fill this role. I'd prefer to trade Rolen for someone here and let Francisco and Sutton share 3rd Base duties.

4. One Clutch player that bats cleanup. He doesn't have to be great. Just drive in the runs when the opportunities present themselves (Yonder Alonso is going to be that type of player. Votto is right now.)

*****note*****You can't have an idiot manager that plays guys with .300 OBP's in the lineup spots #1 or #2. Anyone who does that and their season is doomed (even if they are the fastest player in baseball, as you can't steal 1st Base).

We can have average players or below average players at 3rd Base, Left Field and Right Field and the rest of the pitching staff if we could get these other positions secure. That way we can win without the most talent.....something we can afford.

Vottomatic
11-18-2009, 10:06 AM
Found this on a Mets blog:
"Sherman wonders whether or not the Reds would be willing to deal Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips in exchange for Luis Castillo and prospects Ruben Tejada and/or Brad Holt, as that could save the Reds $22.75 million in total."

Is it me, or is this somewhat insulting? I mean, I know that's a lot of money, but Castillo's in the twilight of his career, and even though last season was one of his best seasons at the plate, it wouldn't give the Reds half of Phillips's production. Brad Holt looks to be pretty good, but Ruben Tejada doesn't appear to be anything special. If they'd include a little more offensive production, then maybe.
Thoughts?

I'd trade Arroyo & Phillips, for prospects AND SS Jose Reyes who is scheduled to make $9.4M next season and has a $.5M buyout or club option of $11M in '11.

Give Todd Frazier a shot at 2B, you've upgraded offensively at SS with Reyes (will be 27 next June). You've save approximately $19M in salary by unloading Arroyo and Phillips, but added back $9M with Reyes. So you save $10M.

Reyes had one injury riddled year last season, but came back and played at the end of the season. He averaged over 150 games per season the 4 years before that and he's still young. And at his young age he already has 301 career stolen bases with a career OBP of .337. Imagine he and Stubbs at the top of the lineup wreaking havoc on the basepaths with Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Heisey coming up to hit behind them.

Reyes career stats: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7066/career;_ylt=Akd_LSdJBGKO5C0IOxxb9B6FCLcF

KiefMoon
11-19-2009, 04:52 AM
"We need to get that other midfield spot taken care of, but we've got CF in Dickerson and Stubbs, C in Hernandez and Hanigan, and half of the Infield Middle in Phillips."


kingspoint can u prove this? You hate on Janish but never provide solid proof why the Reds cant win with him. Could u show some reason or proof?

will5979
11-19-2009, 09:07 AM
Not in every position.

You can win a World Series by subscribing to that in 4 positions/areas:

1. A staff Ace. Not any staff Ace, but one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball the year you win the World Series. He has to be good enough to beat the other teams' ACE in a 2-1 game. (We have 3 people who have the potential to be that one day in Bailey, Volquez and Cueto.

2. Excellent Defense throughout the team. All 8 of your players can have less "talent" (Talent, unfortunately, is 98% of the time associated with a player's Offensive abilities.), especially up the middle (Catcher/SS/2B/CF). We need to get that other midfield spot taken care of, but we've got CF in Dickerson and Stubbs, C in Hernandez and Hanigan, and half of the Infield Middle in Phillips.

3. A Top-5 end of the bullpen. This can often be accomplished with just 4 guys from a pitching staff that usually runs around 17 players throughout the season. If those 4 guys, who might total just 320 Innings on the year can be dominant (Top-3 when compared to every other team's Top-4 relievers), then games where the team can get a lead can be shortened to 6 innings. The #2 through #5 starters can be average this way and still give the team a lot of wins on the days they pitch well. We've got Cordero, but I don't see anyone after that. With Relievers, they tend to only have about a 2-1/2 year window where they are dominant (except for closers), so it's possible that 1 or 2 players could appear out of nowhere from the REDS' staff and fill this role. I'd prefer to trade Rolen for someone here and let Francisco and Sutton share 3rd Base duties.

4. One Clutch player that bats cleanup. He doesn't have to be great. Just drive in the runs when the opportunities present themselves (Yonder Alonso is going to be that type of player. Votto is right now.)

*****note*****You can't have an idiot manager that plays guys with .300 OBP's in the lineup spots #1 or #2. Anyone who does that and their season is doomed (even if they are the fastest player in baseball, as you can't steal 1st Base).

We can have average players or below average players at 3rd Base, Left Field and Right Field and the rest of the pitching staff if we could get these other positions secure. That way we can win without the most talent.....something we can afford.

I promise I'm not trying to start an argument...but do you really see the Reds winning the World Series within the next 5 seasons? Granted we have tons of young talent but knowing the history our organization as soon as all these players hit their prime look for them to be in either a Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, or Cardinals uniform. While I hope and pray that I am wrong I just know the owners truely DO NOT care about winning and success.

Hate to rehash this but just take Adam Dunn as an example, here you had a man that could have been heir to Barry Larkin's throne of being a lifer with the same team, but the owners didn't want to sign him long term. After all what in the world is wrong with a man that hits 40 hr every year and drives in 100 rbi? Also barring a career ending injury here is a ballplayer that will hit 550-650 career dingers and be a sure fire Hall of Famer. I will always be bitter that the Reds would not sign my favorite player since Barry Larkin to a long term deal...no wonder Larkin began to hate this screwed up organization so much. I'm sorry for the rant but I love the Reds more than any other organization in sports and it really bothers me that we have had an entire decade of misery. Enough is enough. I wish I could invent some gadget that would make me a trillionaire so I could buy this organization and turn it around. That is what the Reds need, a TRUE fan of this franchise that has money and is willing to use it, because that is the reality of MLB, whoever spends money will be successful...and I already know the Mets are the exception!

Plus Plus
11-19-2009, 11:49 AM
Not in every position.

You can win a World Series by subscribing to that in 4 positions/areas:

1. A staff Ace. Not any staff Ace, but one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball the year you win the World Series. He has to be good enough to beat the other teams' ACE in a 2-1 game. (We have 3 people who have the potential to be that one day in Bailey, Volquez and Cueto.

2. Excellent Defense throughout the team. All 8 of your players can have less "talent" (Talent, unfortunately, is 98% of the time associated with a player's Offensive abilities.), especially up the middle (Catcher/SS/2B/CF). We need to get that other midfield spot taken care of, but we've got CF in Dickerson and Stubbs, C in Hernandez and Hanigan, and half of the Infield Middle in Phillips.

3. A Top-5 end of the bullpen. This can often be accomplished with just 4 guys from a pitching staff that usually runs around 17 players throughout the season. If those 4 guys, who might total just 320 Innings on the year can be dominant (Top-3 when compared to every other team's Top-4 relievers), then games where the team can get a lead can be shortened to 6 innings. The #2 through #5 starters can be average this way and still give the team a lot of wins on the days they pitch well. We've got Cordero, but I don't see anyone after that. With Relievers, they tend to only have about a 2-1/2 year window where they are dominant (except for closers), so it's possible that 1 or 2 players could appear out of nowhere from the REDS' staff and fill this role. I'd prefer to trade Rolen for someone here and let Francisco and Sutton share 3rd Base duties.

4. One Clutch player that bats cleanup. He doesn't have to be great. Just drive in the runs when the opportunities present themselves (Yonder Alonso is going to be that type of player. Votto is right now.)

*****note*****You can't have an idiot manager that plays guys with .300 OBP's in the lineup spots #1 or #2. Anyone who does that and their season is doomed (even if they are the fastest player in baseball, as you can't steal 1st Base).

We can have average players or below average players at 3rd Base, Left Field and Right Field and the rest of the pitching staff if we could get these other positions secure. That way we can win without the most talent.....something we can afford.

But the fact of the matter is that having a true ace in your pitching staff is a product of having more talent than the next team. For example, if you have a rotation like the Phillies had last year- Lee (ace), Hamels, Blanton, Martinez, and Happ, then your talent level is significantly higher than if you have Hamels, Blanton, Martinez, Happ, and replacement player x (Fogg? Milton?). The same goes for the other points, and in my opinion and observations the key to winning is having a high talent level. Every position upgraded in effect upgrades the worst player at a position, as that is the player that is moved out of the discussion. A large reason that the Reds aren't able to compete is that they perpetually run terrible players out onto the field (see: Taveras, Willy; Fogg, Josh; Lincoln, Mike; Belisle, Matt). If these players and positions had simply been upgraded to league average talent level (or preferably better...) during their time in Cincinnati the Reds might be in a much different situation than they are now.

Kingspoint
11-24-2009, 10:10 PM
"We need to get that other midfield spot taken care of, but we've got CF in Dickerson and Stubbs, C in Hernandez and Hanigan, and half of the Infield Middle in Phillips."


kingspoint can u prove this? You hate on Janish but never provide solid proof why the Reds cant win with him. Could u show some reason or proof?

Actually, I don't disagree with you here.

If Janish can hold his own defensively, I'm all for him being the person. Don't forget though where Dusty will bat him in the lineup. He's a SS, so he bats second.

Kingspoint
11-24-2009, 10:14 PM
I promise I'm not trying to start an argument...but do you really see the Reds winning the World Series within the next 5 seasons? Granted we have tons of young talent but knowing the history our organization as soon as all these players hit their prime look for them to be in either a Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, or Cardinals uniform. While I hope and pray that I am wrong I just know the owners truely DO NOT care about winning and success.

Hate to rehash this but just take Adam Dunn as an example, here you had a man that could have been heir to Barry Larkin's throne of being a lifer with the same team, but the owners didn't want to sign him long term. After all what in the world is wrong with a man that hits 40 hr every year and drives in 100 rbi? Also barring a career ending injury here is a ballplayer that will hit 550-650 career dingers and be a sure fire Hall of Famer. I will always be bitter that the Reds would not sign my favorite player since Barry Larkin to a long term deal...no wonder Larkin began to hate this screwed up organization so much. I'm sorry for the rant but I love the Reds more than any other organization in sports and it really bothers me that we have had an entire decade of misery. Enough is enough. I wish I could invent some gadget that would make me a trillionaire so I could buy this organization and turn it around. That is what the Reds need, a TRUE fan of this franchise that has money and is willing to use it, because that is the reality of MLB, whoever spends money will be successful...and I already know the Mets are the exception!

I did before Dusty got hired. If Dusty hadn't been hired, I think we would have made the playoffs in 2009, and without a doubt, be in the playoffs in 2010.

I believe that every season that Dusty is around, a year of all of this young talent gets wasted.

The REDS can't win anything if Baker is around.

If 2010 could be his last season, then I do think we could win it all in 2011 or 2012.

Dracodave
11-25-2009, 12:01 AM
Hate to rehash this but just take Adam Dunn as an example, here you had a man that could have been heir to Barry Larkin's throne of being a lifer with the same team, but the owners didn't want to sign him long term. After all what in the world is wrong with a man that hits 40 hr every year and drives in 100 rbi? Also barring a career ending injury here is a ballplayer that will hit 550-650 career dingers and be a sure fire Hall of Famer. I will always be bitter that the Reds would not sign my favorite player since Barry Larkin to a long term deal...


I liked Adam Dunn too, but was his money on the books and the fact that he can not put average+homeruns together and basically is what he is not detrimental to a young team?

I saw Bruce still swinging for the fences a lot last year when he shouldnt have been, is that mentallity from the Dunn and Griffey era of "long balls bring in the fans"? I often wondered if it was.

Im not slaming either guys, Im just saying that negative leadership can be detrimental to young players just like adding someone like Rolen can be very positive and constructive for younger players.

BeesCilk73
12-04-2009, 03:11 AM
I dont think theres much chance of it hitting me. They do say anythings possible, but I dont really think so.

Heres hoping it misses everyone. Well... there are some people we probably wouldnt mind it hitting, but hurricanes tend not to be that discriminate...

will5979
12-04-2009, 09:03 AM
I liked Adam Dunn too, but was his money on the books and the fact that he can not put average+homeruns together and basically is what he is not detrimental to a young team?

I saw Bruce still swinging for the fences a lot last year when he shouldnt have been, is that mentallity from the Dunn and Griffey era of "long balls bring in the fans"? I often wondered if it was.

Im not slaming either guys, Im just saying that negative leadership can be detrimental to young players just like adding someone like Rolen can be very positive and constructive for younger players.

Well, I love the aquisition of Rolen, he is a great leader. But at the same time I feel to be a feared offensive team you have to have 2-3 heavy hitters in that lineup that are capable of giving us 2-4 runs with one swing of the bat. I love the old school attitude of hustle and determination, but I'll admit when I come to the ballpark I love seeing homeruns. When I play/played ball, I swung for the fence everytime. There are guys in your lineup that are paid to hit homeruns. Refer to either the movie 61 or Espn's The Bronx is Burning when the Yankees organization told Maris/Jackson we pay you to hit homeruns. That is what we paid Adam Dunn for, in our lineup he would be an excellent choice for the #6 hitter. And you know as well as I do that 1 homerun that change the momentum of a game...hell one grandslam off Dave Weathers on a warm July 3rd night at GAB last summer changed our momentum for the worse for 2 damn months!

Vottomatic
12-04-2009, 10:36 AM
I did before Dusty got hired. If Dusty hadn't been hired, I think we would have made the playoffs in 2009, and without a doubt, be in the playoffs in 2010.

I believe that every season that Dusty is around, a year of all of this young talent gets wasted.

The REDS can't win anything if Baker is around.

If 2010 could be his last season, then I do think we could win it all in 2011 or 2012.

I'd bet $1,000 that this is Dusty's last season. The only reason he's still around is because of the 1 year remaining on his contract and the money. Also, this team isn't quite ready to win it all, but could surprise. If they were ready to win it all, I could see another manager taking over, which is what I see in '11.

Vottomatic
12-04-2009, 10:37 AM
I liked Adam Dunn too, but was his money on the books and the fact that he can not put average+homeruns together and basically is what he is not detrimental to a young team?

I saw Bruce still swinging for the fences a lot last year when he shouldnt have been, is that mentallity from the Dunn and Griffey era of "long balls bring in the fans"? I often wondered if it was.

Im not slaming either guys, Im just saying that negative leadership can be detrimental to young players just like adding someone like Rolen can be very positive and constructive for younger players.

If Bruce didn't play stellar defense, he is = Dunn Lite. His average stinks and he's all about the long ball.

So many continue to proclaim Jay Bruce the future of the franchise. In reality, Joey Votto is the franchise. I don't see why people can't see that.

will5979
12-04-2009, 11:23 AM
If Bruce didn't play stellar defense, he is = Dunn Lite. His average stinks and he's all about the long ball.

So many continue to proclaim Jay Bruce the future of the franchise. In reality, Joey Votto is the franchise. I don't see why people can't see that.

Votto SHOULD be the future of the franchise...whether or not this is true time will tell. I would love to know what would have happened this past season if he hadn't take the time off for depression issues. I believe at the least we could have won 85 games.

Vottomatic
12-04-2009, 05:20 PM
Votto SHOULD be the future of the franchise...whether or not this is true time will tell. I would love to know what would have happened this past season if he hadn't take the time off for depression issues. I believe at the least we could have won 85 games.

I agree. Not only the Reds win total, but Joey's stats too. He probably hits 30 homers and approaches 100 rbi.

Dracodave
12-04-2009, 11:50 PM
I agree. Not only the Reds win total, but Joey's stats too. He probably hits 30 homers and approaches 100 rbi.


I third this opinion, Bruce has alot of work to do to impress me with the bat, I'm a fan of homeruns but there tends to be a time and a place, and never every at bat is that.

Plus Plus
12-05-2009, 01:56 PM
If Bruce didn't play stellar defense, he is = Dunn Lite. His average stinks and he's all about the long ball.

So many continue to proclaim Jay Bruce the future of the franchise. In reality, Joey Votto is the franchise. I don't see why people can't see that.

Jay Bruce is four years younger than Votto, and everything about his skillset says that he can be a dominant player in MLB for years and years to come. I would like to see both of them as the faces of the franchise- why pick one?

Even in Bruce's down year last year, his wOBA was .329, making him exactly league average. While his BABIP was extremely low (arguably due to his uppercut in his swing that he had before his wrist injury), his peripherals all remained very good.

I think it's a bit early to turn on Bruce, people.