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RedsManRick
11-19-2009, 04:32 PM
I saw this on Jayson Stark's latest article (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings091119&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines) and thought it was interesting. Stark just listed the payrolls, I divided them up in to 5 groups based on gaps I saw. I think this tier concept makes the most sense as it reflects the reality that payrolls fluctuate and are loosely based on revenue. It's a proxy and so should be considered an indicator of fiscal ability. Some observations:

- The top 8 payroll were split 4 AL and 4 NL.
- All 8 of those teams were expected to be in or strongly compete playoff spot
- The "Upper Middle Class" is an interesting mix of teams who compete more often than not, but whose success is still closely linked to the intelligence of the decisions made by management and still susceptible to being limited by poor contracts
- The "Lower Middle Class", the tier the Reds are in, really represents the group below the median (which is about $90M) but not totally poor. It's possible to compete here, but you have have an extremely well run organization and there's very little room for error.
- As for the "poor", I think they're each a unique case. The Pirates are in a true rebuild and will rejoin the lower middle class in the next few years. The Marlins are being run unabashedly to make the owner a profit. The Padres are suffering from the impact of an extremely messy divorce of its owner and will likely rejoin the lower middle class in coming years.



YES (1)
Yankees $215,080,715
----------------------------
High Rollers (7)
Mets $141,302,331
Cubs $141,007,248
Tigers $138,477,723
Red Sox $137,199,512
Phillies $136,107,962
Dodgers $127,592,034
Angels $120,423,691
----------------------------
Upper Middle Class (6)
Astros $106,424,382
White Sox $104,751,673
Mariners $101,182,454
Cardinals $100,892,097
Braves $99,567,968
Giants $94,086,588
----------------------------
Lower Middle Class (13)
Brewers $87,772,297
Blue Jays $83,838,967
Rockies $83,492,729
Royals $80,588,529
Orioles $78,470,973
Rangers $76,524,452
Indians $75,512,530
Diamondbacks $73,495,966
Reds $72,146,812
Twins $71,903,577
Rays $70,682,817
Nationals $68,430,665
A's $60,954,872
----------------------------
The Poorhouse (3)
Pirates $47,482,564
Padres $41,306,652
Marlins $36,803,494

nate
11-19-2009, 04:52 PM
I wonder how well that list matches up with an alternative playoff musing from today's BR blog (http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3507):


LEVEL 1

Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies

LEVEL 2

Rockies, Cardinals, Giants, Rangers, Marlins

LEVEL 3

Twins, Braves, Tigers, Mariners, Rays

LEVEL 4

Cubs, Brewers, White Sox, Reds, Blue Jays

LEVEL 5

Athletics, Padres, Astros, Diamondbacks, Mets

LEVEL 6

Indians, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Nationals