PDA

View Full Version : Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?



BLEEDS
01-15-2010, 05:21 PM
Read tORG thread on it.
What are your thoughts here on the "short bus" board, where Sabermetrics are in their infancy?

I've always like the UZR, but I could never get on the bandwagon with the "this lead to X runs, Y wins, and Z dollars".

I like my OPS and am a firm believer in LF defense is NOT a thing to worry about when discussing the Adam Dunn's of the world, etc...

What do you guys think?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Redsfan320
01-15-2010, 05:39 PM
I dunno. While some traditional stats are obviously not perfect, there's a limit to how much you can predict a player's worth, and sometimes it becomes a bit silly.

320

Vermilion Red
01-15-2010, 07:54 PM
I think the defensive statistics are interesting, but the number of variables is endless. By and large, I think the number of plays a player makes vs. the number of errors is a reasonable reflection of a player's defensive value; and these are certainly not new. Does something have to be new to be considered sabermetrics? I suppose not.
I also think the difference between a good defensive player and a bad defensive player is relatively small when compared to offensive differences. I think we realize this when we look at the history of middle infielders. We used to accept the offense of Darrell Chaney and Felix Millan because they played such important defensive positions, but this isn't the case any more. If it were, Paul Janish would be playing shortstop for the Reds next year without a wimper.

dcameron24
01-16-2010, 12:14 AM
Personally, I am a big fan of the idea of Sabremetrics. However, I never had much faith in UZR or Defensive metrics due to the seeming lack of consistency.

I can tell from just watching baseball that Brandon Phillips is one of the elite 2nd basemen in the game, and I am not talking about BP's spectacular plays either... he just makes the plays that he is supposed to and occasional diving stops or jumping snags that he IS NOT supposed to make.

However, I noticed last year that he seemed to be "off his game" a little. He missed plays he used to make and even flubbed some routine plays.

If you look at his UZR for that last 3 years I think that it reflects his play (based on naked eye observations).

2007 - UZR 16.6
2008 - UZR 12.2
2009 - UZR 6.8

However... conversely, Paul Janish, who rates fairly high in UZR for SS (6th in the NL behind Adam Rosales who is 4th... with no minimum innings) doesn't impress me all that much.

Yes... Janish does make good plays at SS, but nothing to write home about. He essentially does what a SS is supposed to do (why should he be "rewarded" for that).

Janish 2009 - UZR 24.6

Even though UZR reflects certain observations on BP... it does the opposite on Janish. Maybe it's a sample size issue with Janish at 70 defensive games and BP at 151?

Someone with more info on UZR could probably help with the sample size issue, but my main point is that UZR seems to be too inconsistent based on naked eye observations to be worth while.

*All UZR stats from Fangraphs*

Kingspoint
01-16-2010, 05:46 AM
I said this last summer a couple of times.

I don't believe there are any Defensive measurements that come close to predicting or measuring a player's defensive effectiveness to a team for a season, a month, a week or a game.

My own eyes are still 10 times better than anything that has yet to be invented regarding measuring Defense.

I'd compare the very best Defensive statistics to batting average when measuring a player's effectiveness.

That's why Norris Hopper and his career .310 batting average has bounced around to 4 teams in the last 12 months.

I also think Defense is highly under-rated by fans, especially, and by General Managers.

improbus
01-16-2010, 09:44 AM
I also think Defense is highly under-rated by fans, especially, and by General Managers.
I think that is changing quickly, but not in the way that you might think. Teams are looking to cut payroll and the GM's are selling their fans on "improving team defense." Look at the exchange of Jason Bay for Mike Cameron. That was really a salary dump and the Red Sox will NOT be better with Mike Cameron, but they are packaging that move as a defensive move. Cameron is making $15.5m. over 2 years while Bay got 4 years at $66m. The Dunn trade was a similar move.

BLEEDS
01-16-2010, 08:44 PM
Personally, I am a big fan of the idea of Sabremetrics. However, I never had much faith in UZR or Defensive metrics due to the seeming lack of consistency.

I can tell from just watching baseball that Brandon Phillips is one of the elite 2nd basemen in the game, and I am not talking about BP's spectacular plays either... he just makes the plays that he is supposed to and occasional diving stops or jumping snags that he IS NOT supposed to make.

However, I noticed last year that he seemed to be "off his game" a little. He missed plays he used to make and even flubbed some routine plays.

If you look at his UZR for that last 3 years I think that it reflects his play (based on naked eye observations).

2007 - UZR 16.6
2008 - UZR 12.2
2009 - UZR 6.8

However... conversely, Paul Janish, who rates fairly high in UZR for SS (6th in the NL behind Adam Rosales who is 4th... with no minimum innings) doesn't impress me all that much.

Yes... Janish does make good plays at SS, but nothing to write home about. He essentially does what a SS is supposed to do (why should he be "rewarded" for that).

Janish 2009 - UZR 24.6

Even though UZR reflects certain observations on BP... it does the opposite on Janish. Maybe it's a sample size issue with Janish at 70 defensive games and BP at 151?

Someone with more info on UZR could probably help with the sample size issue, but my main point is that UZR seems to be too inconsistent based on naked eye observations to be worth while.

*All UZR stats from Fangraphs*

Nice post! Welcome to RZ!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
01-16-2010, 09:41 PM
Nice post! Welcome to RZ!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Yes. Hear! Hear!

Redsfan320
01-16-2010, 10:36 PM
Welcome to RZ!

Let me be the third to welcome you! :)

320

dcameron24
01-21-2010, 11:03 PM
Thanks for the kind words... I've always kind of been a stalker of the ORG. Figured it was time to state some of my own opinions. Besides... if I didn't have the Reds and Bengals to criticize/complain about I don't know what I would do with my free time. ;)