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BigRed
01-21-2010, 11:58 AM
Does anyone see Walt making a late signing for SS or are they satisfied with Janish being the every day SS? I know that he can do the job defensively, but I am concerned about him hitting enough.

mattfeet
01-21-2010, 12:19 PM
We all are.

All signs point to Janish being the man for the job, for now. I think Chapman was our big off-season signing. I also don't see a lot of SS available that would fit into our "young team" stigma. Keep Janish for now, see where you're at during the season, and make moves accordingly.

-Matt

Alpha Zero
01-21-2010, 01:52 PM
I could see the Reds picking up Orlando Cabrera as a stopgap if his asking price falls into the $2-3 MM range. He's not a good OBP guy, but he'll hit .280 with a bit of pop. He still plays average defense and could be a solid pick up on a one year deal.

Vottomatic
01-21-2010, 02:17 PM
Is Tejada off the market yet?

Alpha Zero
01-21-2010, 02:24 PM
I personally think that Tejada is a bit too much of a defensive liability at SS at this stage in his career. I seem to remember a game last year where Stubbs hit two routine grounders right at Tejada and turned them both into infield singles.

bounty37h
01-21-2010, 02:54 PM
welcome back?

dcameron24
01-21-2010, 10:18 PM
I know it's obvious... but I could definitely live with Tejada or OCab for the right price. Janish would then be your "late inning defensive replacement" or AAA "place filler" (not sure about his options).

Tejada projects at an approximate 1.8-2.0 WAR player which based on last years numbers is about a $8-9 million salary for this year.

OCab projects at a approximate .5-1 WAR player which based on last years number is about a $3-4 million salary for this year.

Getting either player at less than their projection would be a good deal (obviously), but Tejada's batting ability makes a strong case...

Kingspoint
01-22-2010, 06:10 AM
Does anyone see Walt making a late signing for SS?

Yes, I do.

redleg40
01-25-2010, 08:49 PM
What are the possibilities that Janish is reading and hearing all the talk about how he can't hit this offseaason? What are the possibilities that he is working his tail off this winter to become a decent hitter? I would be satisfied with him batting 8th becoming a good bunter and working the count to make the pitcher work harder;seeing a lot of pitches per at bat and playing gold glove caliber defense.

flash
01-26-2010, 08:03 AM
I really think all the talk of needing a big time shortstop may all be much ado about nothing. Janish is an excellent fielder who has trouble at the plate. But Chris Valaika will be at spring training and Rick Sweet is always raving about him. Zack Cozart had a decent year last year at AA and did very well in winter ball. Rosales has not done poorly either. A lot of people knock him, but maybe he has improved. Chris Burke will also be at Spring Training. Why should the Reds spend a lot of money on something they may not need?

Girevik
01-26-2010, 10:39 AM
I think flash hit the nail on the head. I think the Reds feel they have several prospects at SS, and one will be ready in the next couple of years. I think they're willing to live with a transition year rather than sign a guy to big money for 3 or 4 years and then be saddled with the contract when the prospect is ready.

BLEEDS
01-26-2010, 12:18 PM
Todd Frazier's name was added to the Spring Training Mix per Walt.

I think they know they can't live with Janish batting 2nd.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

roby
01-26-2010, 01:14 PM
Todd Frazier's name was added to the Spring Training Mix per Walt.

I think they know they can't live with Janish batting 2nd.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Hopefully the guy that makes out the lineup card every day knows that!

fewfirstchoice
01-26-2010, 01:39 PM
I really have a gut feeling that ole uncle Walt still has one trick up his sleeve this off season.I think that the Reds will sign either a OF type(Dye, Gomes) or O. Caberra(sp). Just a gut feeling but I do have the feeling.

BLEEDS
01-26-2010, 02:40 PM
Hopefully the guy that makes out the lineup card every day knows that!

Unfortunately that is the problem.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

malcontent
01-26-2010, 04:55 PM
I think they know they can't live with Janish batting 2nd.

I agree. It's an interesting dilemma the Reds are in.

The FO knows that Toothpick has neither concept nor appreciation of OBP, and that Janish WILL bat second if he's the SS.

Baker = all four legs in the tar pit and damned proud of it.

mikemo14
01-27-2010, 12:27 AM
Have no problem with Janish as the everyday ss if Walt can add one more solid OF bat. I feel the other seven in the lineup can cover an outstanding defensive SS.

Trace's Daddy
01-27-2010, 07:04 AM
I'd be OK with the roster as-is if the lineup card was based on OBP, OPS versus lefty/righty or had some other logic other than defensive position.

Stingray
01-29-2010, 12:54 AM
Dave Concepcion Hitting Stats

Yr Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
1970 Reds 101 265 38 69 6 3 1 0 19 23 5 45 3 2 3 10 .260 .324 .317
1971 Reds 130 327 24 67 4 4 1 0 20 18 2 51 8 1 0 10 .205 .246 .251
1972 Reds 119 378 40 79 13 2 2 0 29 32 8 65 5 4 2 11 .209 .272 .270

Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
19 Years 2,488 8,723 993 2,326 389 48 101 6 950 736 93 1,186 74 86 21 266 .267 .322 .357


After his first three years with the Cincinnati Reds Davey Concepcion batted only .222, but hit .267 with an OPS of .623 over a 19 year career. Given the opportunity it's reasonable to believe that Paul Janish could match those numbers.. Given his defense he would be a quality major league shortstop. I'd like to see him start for at least one year to show improved offense. After 1972, had a Redzone been around, I'm sure most members would havet been calling for Davey's release.

Roush's socks
01-29-2010, 01:23 AM
Dave Concepcion Hitting Stats

Yr Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
1970 Reds 101 265 38 69 6 3 1 0 19 23 5 45 3 2 3 10 .260 .324 .317
1971 Reds 130 327 24 67 4 4 1 0 20 18 2 51 8 1 0 10 .205 .246 .251
1972 Reds 119 378 40 79 13 2 2 0 29 32 8 65 5 4 2 11 .209 .272 .270

Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
19 Years 2,488 8,723 993 2,326 389 48 101 6 950 736 93 1,186 74 86 21 266 .267 .322 .357


After his first three years with the Cincinnati Reds Davey Concepcion batted only .222, but hit .267 with an OPS of .623 over a 19 year career. Given the opportunity it's reasonable to believe that Paul Janish could match those numbers.. Given his defense he would be a quality major league shortstop. I'd like to see him start for at least one year to show improved offense. After 1972, had a Redzone been around, I'm sure most members would havet been calling for Davey's release.

When Concepcion played defense and pitching ruled the game. His hitting stats, in context, are not as bad as they look.

BLEEDS
01-29-2010, 09:49 AM
Did somebody just compare Paul Janish to Dave Concepcion?!

Just checking...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Stingray
01-29-2010, 11:52 AM
Of course Concepcion played in a different era and no I'm not suggesting Janish is likely to be as good as Concepcion. All I'm saying, however, is that it's possible for a player to improve his hitting significantly as he adjusts to the major league level; and although I would not expect Janish to equal Concepcion's, Hall of Fame worthy career, I do think he could become a quality major-league shortstop if he merely makes the same hitting adjustments that Concepcion made during his career. If the Reds had made the same judgments on Concepciůn after he hit it under .210 for two consecutive years, that many here are applying to Janish, the Reds would never have benefited from from Conception's stellar performance.

I guess it's too late to correct my original post but Conception's OPS was .679 not .623.

BLEEDS
01-29-2010, 01:29 PM
That argument might have some validity if Janish weren't 27 years old.

Concepcions first 3 years that you reference was when he was a 22 yo rookie sharing time with 3 other guys.
By the time Concepcion was 27, he was a 3 time all star, had 2 GG's and an MVP, and was on his way to cementing himself as the best SS of the 1970's.

If the idea is to compare guys batting .200 to Hall of Famers who struggled in their early 20/rookie years, you aren't doing any of them a favor.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Stingray
01-29-2010, 08:11 PM
Concepcion was almost 25 at the beginning of 1973, the year he first began to hit with some consistency. Davey had 970 AB’s before he had his breakout year. Janish has only had 336. So because Concepcion was 2 1/2 years younger than Janish when he started to hit, you don't think it's possible that Janish can make strides similar to Concepcion’s? He did OPS .733 in his minor-league career and he had 21 doubles in 256 at-bats in his first significant major-league experience. I'm not claiming that Janish will definitely make those kind of strides but I'd like to see the Reds give him that chance. As I said in my previous post I'm not suggesting Janish will be as good as Concepciůn. I'm just using Concepciůn on as an example of a player who showed significant improvement after his first few years in the majors.

BLEEDS
01-29-2010, 09:04 PM
Just saying obviously Janish is no longer a "prospect".

And, again, using a hall of famer as a comparison for someone is not a good idea. If anything it just begs the opposite, that this is obviously the highly rare exception, and not by any means the rule.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Stingray
01-29-2010, 09:42 PM
Just saying obviously Janish is no longer a "prospect".
And, again, using a hall of famer as a comparison for someone is not a good idea. If anything it just begs the opposite, that this is obviously the highly rare exception, and not by any means the rule.

PEACE

-BLEEDS



I don't understand your comment ln bold above. At the end 1972 Concepcion had had 970 AB's, compared to Janish's 336, and had hit less than .210 for two straight years. I guess by your definition he was no longer a prospect either. Although Davey was a great player there was nothing sacred about his performance that prevents the use of his career as an example of past experience. At this point, we've failed to convince one another and have pretty much reached an impasse.

RedLakerFan24
01-29-2010, 10:46 PM
1. CF Drew Stubbs
2. SS Orlando Cabrera

Kingspoint
01-30-2010, 08:30 AM
It was a crime last year how few opportunities for RBI's Votto had. When given the chance, he knocked them in. He needs more chances.

You can't give Dusty the option of putting sub-.330 OBP up to bat 1st or 2nd. Still waiting for the Willy T departure, but Janish should remain on the bench, if possible, and earn his play.

BLEEDS
01-30-2010, 09:12 AM
I don't understand your comment ln bold above. At the end 1972 Concepcion had had 970 AB's, compared to Janish's 336, and had hit less than .210 for two straight years. I guess by your definition he was no longer a prospect either. Although Davey was a great player there was nothing sacred about his performance that prevents the use of his career as an example of past experience. At this point, we've failed to convince one another and have pretty much reached an impasse.

Yes, we are at an impasse.

If one of us can't realize that saying every 27 year old who has failed to hit in the bigs yet can be poo-poo'd by comparing him to hall of famer's who had far surpassed them by the same age.

It's not just about how many AB's he has. If Janish was so good in the minors, how come he hasn't had any shots at the bigs until age 26?!? It's not like we had all stars there.
Even if his reported/alleged wizard glove was indeed as reported, you'd think he'd have cracked the bigs years before and gotten his share of AB's as a defensive replacement/spot starter.

If you're pinning your hopes on Janish coming around at age 30 with the bat - because Dave Concepcion took 3 years to start hitting in the bigs (at age 25) - then you are definitely trying to wag the dog with someone else's tail.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Baseball Lover
01-30-2010, 05:26 PM
Keep Janish!!! He is great defensively and got tortured by a bad BABIP last year. His offense will always be underwhelming, but not as hideous as it was in 09. If he can give you .240/.320/.350 with great defense at SS, then he is a perfectly viable starter at SS

Stingray
01-31-2010, 01:48 PM
Keep Janish!!! He is great defensively and got tortured by a bad BABIP last year. His offense will always be underwhelming, but not as hideous as it was in 09. If he can give you .240/.320/.350 with great defense at SS, then he is a perfectly viable starter at SS

I agree. The point I have been trying to make is that I think he can grow into those kind of numbers. His batting average ceiling could even be somewhat higher. Perhaps .265.

BLEEDS
01-31-2010, 02:00 PM
History shows that 27 year old shortstops don't "learn" to hit after long careers in the minors.

BABIP can be a useful tool - but as with Bruce and his claim of "terrible" BABIP, sometimes the eyes can tell you more so.
When you're getting terrible contact and hitting weak pop-ups/fly-balls/dribblers it can explain "torturous" BABIP. He wasn't unlucky, he just wasn't getting good contact.
Now not saying they are in the same league; Bruce actually did have a high LD% and such that did support the "bad luck" monicker. Janish is batting sub .700 OPS because he's not a good hitter. His CAREER minor league numbers versus RHP was .700 OPS. And again, he's had a LOOOONG minor league career.

Same for xERA or BABIP against or whatever the heck it was that everyone kept saying about Belisle. His pitches just didn't have any movement and his balls were very "hittable". But everyone was just saying it was bad luck, and soon he'd be on par with Arroyo. Turned out, he just sucked.

LUCK and CONTACT shouldn't be confused.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Griffey012
01-31-2010, 02:46 PM
History shows that 27 year old shortstops don't "learn" to hit after long careers in the minors.

BABIP can be a useful tool - but as with Bruce and his claim of "terrible" BABIP, sometimes the eyes can tell you more so.
When you're getting terrible contact and hitting weak pop-ups/fly-balls/dribblers it can explain "torturous" BABIP. He wasn't unlucky, he just wasn't getting good contact.
Now not saying they are in the same league; Bruce actually did have a high LD% and such that did support the "bad luck" monicker. Janish is batting sub .700 OPS because he's not a good hitter. His CAREER minor league numbers versus RHP was .700 OPS. And again, he's had a LOOOONG minor league career.

Same for xERA or BABIP against or whatever the heck it was that everyone kept saying about Belisle. His pitches just didn't have any movement and his balls were very "hittable". But everyone was just saying it was bad luck, and soon he'd be on par with Arroyo. Turned out, he just sucked.

LUCK and CONTACT shouldn't be confused.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Excellent post, I feel people put too much weight into BABIP because of those factors you described above.

Baseball Lover
01-31-2010, 02:53 PM
Even so, no one, not even Bengie Molina have an expected BABIP of .247. It can be expected to be around .270-.280, which will still raise his stats. Regardless, even with his offense as is, he is probably as valuable as Cabrera.

BLEEDS
01-31-2010, 09:47 PM
.247 isn't what I'd call "torturous".

Watching Janish at the plate - I'd call that torturous.

Unless Janish flashes a league best glove, he will come nowhere near as valuable at Cabrera on his worst day, IMO. I believe that is what the FO believes as well.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
02-01-2010, 12:26 AM
. I believe that is what the FO believes as well.



The front office is trying to sell tickets.

They're just trying to convince enough people that Cabrera is enough to get them to buy more tickets.

To me, giving Dusty Baker another .310 OBP guy that he can stick at the top of the lineup (1st or 2nd) for the 3rd year in a row is just one more reason why the Cincinnati REDS will again be nothing more than "mediocre", or a club that fails to win 80 games.

If you like "mediocrity", then Orlando Cabrera is your man.

I'd rather have Janish' Defense with Janish batting 8th then Cabrera's Defense with Cabrera batting 2nd.

This isn't a negative post for all you pom-pom wavers. It is what it is. Calling a .310 OBP(if we're lucky) hitter who'll bat 2nd all year and who'll man the most important Defensive position on the field like a 35-year old an absolutely abysmal move by the REDS and Walt Jockety.

There never was much hope for the 2010 season as far as possible playoffs were concerned, but this eliminates all hope.

All hope of the pitching staff's TEAM ERA finishing in the Top half of the National League is also lost with a 35-year old SS and a 35-year old 3rd Baseman. That is one UGLY Right Side of the Infield.

At least Janish would have made up for Scott Rolen's deficiencies defensively, while also equalling Cabrera's OBP, most likely, or close enough for it not to matter.

Stupid move.

Fans are easy to fool, though. All you have to do is mention a couple of a veteran's previous seasons and they're apt to believe that he can repeat that performance. Never mind that history says otherwise about 35-year olds.

You can have your mediocrity.

Wake me when the REDS get serious.

BLEEDS
02-01-2010, 11:24 AM
So you disregard this statement:

"Unless Janish flashes a league best glove, he will come nowhere near as valuable at Cabrera on his worst day"

Because that seems to be the consenus from the majority of pundits, especially here on RZ.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Mr Larkin
02-02-2010, 02:36 AM
The front office is trying to sell tickets.

They're just trying to convince enough people that Cabrera is enough to get them to buy more tickets.

To me, giving Dusty Baker another .310 OBP guy that he can stick at the top of the lineup (1st or 2nd) for the 3rd year in a row is just one more reason why the Cincinnati REDS will again be nothing more than "mediocre", or a club that fails to win 80 games.

If you like "mediocrity", then Orlando Cabrera is your man.

I'd rather have Janish' Defense with Janish batting 8th then Cabrera's Defense with Cabrera batting 2nd.

This isn't a negative post for all you pom-pom wavers. It is what it is. Calling a .310 OBP(if we're lucky) hitter who'll bat 2nd all year and who'll man the most important Defensive position on the field like a 35-year old an absolutely abysmal move by the REDS and Walt Jockety.

There never was much hope for the 2010 season as far as possible playoffs were concerned, but this eliminates all hope.

All hope of the pitching staff's TEAM ERA finishing in the Top half of the National League is also lost with a 35-year old SS and a 35-year old 3rd Baseman. That is one UGLY Right Side of the Infield.

At least Janish would have made up for Scott Rolen's deficiencies defensively, while also equalling Cabrera's OBP, most likely, or close enough for it not to matter.

Stupid move.

Fans are easy to fool, though. All you have to do is mention a couple of a veteran's previous seasons and they're apt to believe that he can repeat that performance. Never mind that history says otherwise about 35-year olds.

You can have your mediocrity.

Wake me when the REDS get serious.

I could not disagree more. Cabrera gives us hope and an infield with him at SS and Rolen at 3rd is not ugly, but enticing. Rolen is a top notch defender, regardless of age. Cabrera has been very solid in his defense through his career. Last year was not very good, but you can't predict the future by one flawed season.

Janish is a bench player at best. Cabrera will bring life to the offense and defense. Janish can't do that.

I do not know if Cabrera will bat in the two hole, but if he does he will do better than Janish.

This is a good move and worthy of praise.

Stop your griping. When Walt does nothing - many say, Geez - do something!
When Walt makes a move - many say - Does this man have a clue?

He is trying to stretch our budget and make us a contender and I admire him for that.

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 03:27 AM
So you disregard this statement:

"Unless Janish flashes a league best glove, he will come nowhere near as valuable at Cabrera on his worst day"

Because that seems to be the consenus from the majority of pundits, especially here on RZ.



I agree with you a majority of the time, and also the majority a majority of the time, but not this time. I do disregard that statement then.

I disagree because of what I see. My eyes don't deceive me.

But, since someone brought it up in another thread (I don't believe in Defensive Statistics at all, but for those who do...)....

I got these "UZR" stats for Shortstops here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0

Guess who's 3rd from DEADLAST (minimum 500 Innings Played, 31 Shortstops)? Yes. Orlando Cabrera. And, that's with the #2 overall in MLB in UZR by 3rd Baseman playing defense next to him at 3rd Base in Joe Crede (min 500 IP).

Side note: EE's Dead Last, and thus the Scott Rolen trade. I'll give you that Scott Rolen will be average next year for 3rd Baseman defensively (IF his back holds up), but Cabrera will be "below average".

And, guess who's 1st overall among Shortstops in MLB (minimum 500 IP, 31 players qualified)? YES! Paul Janish is #1 overall and Cabrera is 3rd from DEADLAST.

For the record, www.baseball-reference.com doesn't even use UZR or UZR/150, which is what I'm quoting from, as it was this other guy that was using the stat (so I checked it out and found different results).

Janish is 24.6
...27 starting shortstops in between...
Cabrera is -13.7
...2 more starters, then no one else was trusted enough to be given this many innings

WOW!!! These two guys are at polar extremes defensively. I wouldn't say that much, but that's what the stats say, for those who like to use stats (the majority of redszone, unfortunately, when it comes to defense).

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 03:34 AM
Stop your griping. When Walt does nothing - many say, Geez - do something!
When Walt makes a move - many say - Does this man have a clue?

He is trying to stretch our budget and make us a contender and I admire him for that.

Don't tell another person to stop griping, first off. That's the pot calling the kettle black. You're griping that someone is in your opinion griping. Stick to talking about baseball.

I'm commenting on the move that was made. If you don't like my opinion because it differs from yours, that's on you.

I praise Walt for the good moves and explain why I don't like his moves I think are bad ones. If they're neutral moves, then there's a lot less comment, as to be expected.

Love the move Walt made today. Best news of the year, next to the Chapman signing. The addition by subtraction of Taveras is not measurable through just one player. The whole team gets much better because of it. Removing a low OBP guy from the #1 batting position and from Dusty's ability to use him that way is huge. Giving him Cabrera to replace him is not. But they would have had the same result with Janish. It's just that Baker probably doesn't put Janish in the #2 hole. Cabrera's asset is that his average will be better than Janish's so he can move a player from 1st to 3rd more often and score a player from 2nd more often than Janish can.

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 03:40 AM
I could not disagree more. Cabrera gives us hope and an infield with him at SS and Rolen at 3rd is not ugly, but enticing. Rolen is a top notch defender, regardless of age. Cabrera has been very solid in his defense through his career. Last year was not very good, but you can't predict the future by one flawed season.

Janish is a bench player at best. Cabrera will bring life to the offense and defense. Janish can't do that.



Interesting that your name is "Mr. Larkin", because a 35-year old Larkin I'd love to have at Shortstop, as he was projected to still play good defense at that age. A 35-year old Rolen (with all of his injuries, back trouble that never goes away, declining range, etc) and a 35-year old Cabrera at Shortstop.....NO. They aren't even league-average defensively and their Offense won't make up for it. And, when you put them on the same side of the field together, that's like a dam with lot's of holes in it. An awful lot gets through (that they will never be given an error on because hits will be "recorded"). Janish would have gotten to about 100 more balls on the season over Cabrera in 2010. It's not accurate because they'll be behind different pitchers in different situations, and there may not be enough appearances by Janish for it to balance out, but let's see what the Range Factor is at the end of the year and whether or not there's a .617 per game difference between the two.

texasdave
02-02-2010, 09:40 AM
I would have pencilled (penicillined?) Janish into the starting lineup, because his defense is good for what ails this team's pitching staff. I hope Orlando Cabrera tears it up, but I'm not holding my breath.

BLEEDS
02-02-2010, 11:29 AM
I agree with you a majority of the time, and also the majority a majority of the time, but not this time. I do disregard that statement then.

I disagree because of what I see. My eyes don't deceive me.

But, since someone brought it up in another thread (I don't believe in Defensive Statistics at all, but for those who do...)....


If you don't believe in them, then stop cutting and pasting this in every thread! ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Chris Sabowned
02-02-2010, 12:27 PM
I would have pencilled (penicillined?) Janish into the starting lineup, because his defense is good for what ails this team's pitching staff. I hope Orlando Cabrera tears it up, but I'm not holding my breath.


You know what else ails the team's pitching staff?

Pitching with the lead. Putting the best hitting lineup on the field is the best way to make this happen.

BLEEDS
02-02-2010, 02:12 PM
From Fangraphs:

Orlando to Cincinnati
by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

As the Reds’ rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabrera’s put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, that’s about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabrera’s productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. It’s hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, it’s probable that Cabrera isn’t a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, what’s more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fan’s Scouting Report numbers. It’s hard to believe that he’s the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just can’t hit. He hasn’t hit in the minors since A-ball and hasn’t put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but that’s still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabrera’s upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesn’t appear that this is the best use of the Reds’ money. On the surface, Cabrera doesn’t appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we can’t evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds don’t have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera won’t be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati

ILoveWilly
02-02-2010, 05:23 PM
I like this signing. A proven shortstop instead of starting a guy who couldn't hit a wiffleball.

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 08:16 PM
From Fangraphs:

Orlando to Cincinnati
by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

As the Redsí rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabreraís put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, thatís about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabreraís productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. Itís hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, itís probable that Cabrera isnít a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, whatís more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fanís Scouting Report numbers. Itís hard to believe that heís the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just canít hit. He hasnít hit in the minors since A-ball and hasnít put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but thatís still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabreraís upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesnít appear that this is the best use of the Redsí money. On the surface, Cabrera doesnít appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we canít evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds donít have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera wonít be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati

With analysis like this, I'd hire these guys and get rid of Bavasi.

It seems like it's set up to where Walt makes a deal, and then Bavasi makes a deal, and then Walt makes a deal and then Bavasi makes a deal, etc.... There seems to be a Jeckyl and Hyde in the Front Office.

BLEEDS
02-03-2010, 11:04 AM
So, whatever happened to this opinion, back on the 22nd of Jan?!:


On this team, he's too much of an Offensive liability. If he had Gold Glove skills, then he'd be an asset, but I don't think that's where he is at right now defensively.

Anyway, I think Walt will be looking for a starter, and will find one before the season begins, or at worst, a platoon at Shortstop.

Looks like Walt did exactly what you said, but now you backtrack and say Janish is a better option?!?!

You got some 'splaining to do Lucy!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
02-03-2010, 07:34 PM
So, whatever happened to this opinion, back on the 22nd of Jan?!:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingspoint:
On this team, he's too much of an Offensive liability. If he had Gold Glove skills, then he'd be an asset, but I don't think that's where he is at right now defensively.

Anyway, I think Walt will be looking for a starter, and will find one before the season begins, or at worst, a platoon at Shortstop.



Looks like Walt did exactly what you said, but now you backtrack and say Janish is a better option?!?!

You got some 'splaining to do Lucy!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

All I said was that I thought Walt would bring in someone to start over Janish, and as I said later, Walt grabbed the best option out there right now, and did so rather brilliantly getting Oakland to take Taveras.

I still believe that Janish is not a "Gold Glove" shortstop in spite of those Gold Glove UZR/150 numbers he had last year. But, I also believe that Janish would be more valuable than Cabrera to the REDS because of their defensive differences and what I perceive to be similar OBP's and the fact that Janish would probably bat 8th while Cabrera will bat 2nd, as "the best option" out there is just not a very good option compared to Janish.

I'm certain that, like last year, Walt tried his best to obtain a Shortstop solution for the REDS during the Offseason through either trades or Free Agency, but for the 2nd year in a row, he wasn't able to get what he wanted because there just wasn't anything out there. Remember Atlanta's attempt to get a Shortstop last off-season?

There's just not enough talent in the Majors for 31-32 teams. There hasn't ever been and there never will be.

In reality, there's nothing wrong with acquiring Cabrera, but it's not an upgrade. It's more of an attempt to hit lightening in a bottle and hope that Cabrera has an "UP" Offensive season at the twilight of his career. There's only one of those in every player's long-term career and Walt's hoping that it's this year. Janish, you know what you're getting. There's no "UP" for Janish in 2010. Walt just doesn't want to go through the fiasco of what he went through with Alex Gonzalez last season. (and players don't have "UP" Defensive seasons...that remains on the same regression)

He could obviously trade Alonso for a starting Shortstop, but he's not ready to go there for a season where the team isn't likely to finish above .500 and Alonso's value will only increase as time moves on.

I still like Sutton as a platoon player, but Walt's not ready to give that much time to Sutton Defensively at SS in case Janish gets injured.

flash
02-04-2010, 08:33 AM
So the Reds now have a light-hitting SS who who also pitches and a pitcher and a long relief pitcher who double as a pinch-hitter/ outfielder. Anyway they can combine the two into one.

fugowitribe
02-04-2010, 10:18 AM
So the Reds now have a light-hitting SS who who also pitches and a pitcher and a long relief pitcher who double as a pinch-hitter/ outfielder. Anyway they can combine the two into one.

Finally someone not arguing. LMAO.

RoundingThird
02-04-2010, 01:26 PM
I like the idea of Cabrera at SS. He can hit around .270 with 10 home runs, which I believe he can if he stays healthy, then it's a great deal. Seems like almost everyone hits better in the NL than the AL, so if can simply duplicate his offensive numbers from last year, I'm happy. I'm not worried about the defense, you have gold glovers on either side of him. He'll be fine.

Altsciguy
02-08-2010, 01:53 PM
I am a new fan who moved to Cincinnati late last summer and only saw 12 games. I am also a bleacher fan, (love the sun and the outfield view. who needs a scoreboard if your watching the game?) I was impressed with Janish. He has good reflexes so gets on the ball well and has a rifle for an arm!!! So, there I was sitting in left field and Janish impressed me more then any other player. He is young and, sorry to go back to it, has a great arm!! I saw close plays, (soft hit rollers) and throws from Janish consitently beat runners to first base. I like Janish, I like building a team ( better to build a solid year in year out team then try to buy a good year by selling your future) and with hard work and time at the plate I think his hitting will continue to improved. I do not forsee him moving to the top of the order but I can see him being a solid bottom half, (lower middle), of the order hitter. Let's stop throwing money at twilight career players hoping for one more good year out of them and focus on building and keeping our young players. I will be wearing a Janish jersey this year.

Redsfan320
02-11-2010, 06:43 PM
Welcome to the board! I like Janish too, he's a great defender and a fierce competitor (see below), but I just don't know if his bat will ever be good enough.

Here's a vid. where he makes a great play, getting the out at 2nd, but seems irritated that he couldn't get the throw off fast enough for a DP:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6379605

And also a MLB.com vid. search for Janish. Just amazing: don't forget to check out the 1st page too. Made the link wrong.

http://mlb.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?text=Janish&x=0&y=0&start=12&trackVal=2&hitsPerPage=12&hitsPerSite=10

320

BLEEDS
02-11-2010, 09:08 PM
Proclaiming him to be a GREAT defender is a bit premature at best.

If his glove was so golden, he would have made a major league roster purely for defensive substitution reasons before he was 26/27.

I'm sure he's above average, but GREAT?!?! Let him get more PT in the majors before we bestow that upon him.

Some folks want to compare him to Dave Concepcion, let's see if he can be Juan Castro first. I don't know if he'll make it to age 30 before he's out of baseball for all we know.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
PEACE

-BLEEDS

Griffey012
02-12-2010, 01:03 AM
Lets look at the Ocab/Janish debate using a little economics and the theory of diminishing marginal returns. Basically, once you get so much of something of value, more pieces that are added bring less and less value. With the Reds we are going to have a good to great defense, depending on who plays LF. We are set across at 1b, 2b, 3b, CF, and RF with above average to great fielders. LF should be at least average. The catchers are an ok combo but nothing great defensively. Leaving SS as the only question.

Our Offense has a lot of questions marks. We know what to expect from Votto, BPhill, Rolen, and the Catchers. LF and Stubbs are a questionmark. Bruce could meet his potential or could hit like he did last year. And then there is SS.

Adding OCab over Janish is an upgrade offensively plain and simple. OCab is not great, but Janish is putrid. OCabs added value offensively will outweigh what Janish could add defensively because we already have a great defense with OCab or with Janish. We have the potential to have another crappy offensive team so we cant afford to have a blackhole at SS.

Remember when we could slug a ton of homeruns and not pitch worth a damn? Adding another big bat would not have made the team any better if we still couldn't pitch.

BLEEDS
02-12-2010, 08:02 AM
Agree 100%.

Which is why I'm also in the corner of bringing in a Big Bat in LF. I could care less if he is a below average defender. We have a good enough defense in the OF with Bruce and Stubbs - potential Gold Glovers if they had the name recognition/experience - to more than compensate for LF.

Our offense was HORRID last year - under 700 runs scored. We need to increase that, dramatically, if we hope to have a shot at anything because no matter how good our pitching is, it's not going to give up less than 700 runs!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

swaisuc
02-12-2010, 10:45 AM
I am a new fan who moved to Cincinnati late last summer and only saw 12 games. I am also a bleacher fan, (love the sun and the outfield view. who needs a scoreboard if your watching the game?) I was impressed with Janish. He has good reflexes so gets on the ball well and has a rifle for an arm!!! So, there I was sitting in left field and Janish impressed me more then any other player. He is young and, sorry to go back to it, has a great arm!! I saw close plays, (soft hit rollers) and throws from Janish consitently beat runners to first base. I like Janish, I like building a team ( better to build a solid year in year out team then try to buy a good year by selling your future) and with hard work and time at the plate I think his hitting will continue to improved. I do not forsee him moving to the top of the order but I can see him being a solid bottom half, (lower middle), of the order hitter. Let's stop throwing money at twilight career players hoping for one more good year out of them and focus on building and keeping our young players. I will be wearing a Janish jersey this year.

Thats a fair position and most importantly welcome to Reds country.

I do want to say though that Cabrera in no way means that Janish won't be used this year. If Janish improves and the plate as many are predicting, he will have every chance to push the issue and possibly even overtake the starting SS job. At the very least, the guy is still going to get a lot of PT as a glove off the bench and possibly even playing some 3rd to spell Rolen. More options is never a bad thing IMO.

Basically I'm saying I think you will have every oppurtunity to support Janish this year even with Cabrera on the roster.

Welcome again.:beerme:

texasdave
02-12-2010, 12:44 PM
Agree 100%.

Which is why I'm also in the corner of bringing in a Big Bat in LF. I could care less if he is a below average defender. We have a good enough defense in the OF with Bruce and Stubbs - potential Gold Glovers if they had the name recognition/experience - to more than compensate for LF.

Our offense was HORRID last year - under 700 runs scored. We need to increase that, dramatically, if we hope to have a shot at anything because no matter how good our pitching is, it's not going to give up less than 700 runs!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

If you want to sacrifice defense in LF okay. If you want to sacrifice defense at SS I think you are asking for trouble unless you are getting overwhelming offense from whomever you plug in at short. I don't believe Cabrera is going to give that to you. I would have stayed with Janish and pocketed the money. I am thinking if the Reds had Cabrera's money back Gomes would already be signed.

BLEEDS
02-16-2010, 05:01 PM
If you want to sacrifice defense at SS I think you are asking for trouble unless you are getting overwhelming offense from whomever you plug in at short. I don't believe Cabrera is going to give that to you.

I'm still waiting for an unbias report that shows me Janish is the Gold Glove defender everyone thinks he is based upon his cup of coffee thus far in the Bigs.
Lump me in the group, which includes the FO, that the cummulative value of Cabrera's O and D is .1 WAR difference in OC's floor and JP's ceiling, and anywhere from .5 to 1.5+ in OC's ceiling to PJ's floor.
Yes, PJ's offensive floor is so low - and ceiling low as well - that even a Gold Glove isn't going to make up for it. He basically needs to be THE BEST defender in MLB to have any value.


I would have stayed with Janish and pocketed the money. I am thinking if the Reds had Cabrera's money back Gomes would already be signed.

Gomes is not signed because of a lack of funds. They - along with 31 other teams apparently - feel he isn't worth a major league contract. I may not agree with that assessment, but believe me we didn't need to find $$$ to sign Gomes if we felt it was required, he would have come pretty darn cheap.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
05-11-2010, 04:13 AM
I agree with you a majority of the time, and also the majority a majority of the time, but not this time. I do disregard that statement then.

I disagree because of what I see. My eyes don't deceive me.

But, since someone brought it up in another thread (I don't believe in Defensive Statistics at all, but for those who do...)....

I got these "UZR" stats for Shortstops here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0

Guess who's 3rd from DEADLAST (minimum 500 Innings Played, 31 Shortstops)? Yes. Orlando Cabrera. And, that's with the #2 overall in MLB in UZR by 3rd Baseman playing defense next to him at 3rd Base in Joe Crede (min 500 IP).

Side note: EE's Dead Last, and thus the Scott Rolen trade. I'll give you that Scott Rolen will be average next year for 3rd Baseman defensively (IF his back holds up), but Cabrera will be "below average".

And, guess who's 1st overall among Shortstops in MLB (minimum 500 IP, 31 players qualified)? YES! Paul Janish is #1 overall and Cabrera is 3rd from DEADLAST.

For the record, www.baseball-reference.com doesn't even use UZR or UZR/150, which is what I'm quoting from, as it was this other guy that was using the stat (so I checked it out and found different results).

Janish is 24.6
...27 starting shortstops in between...
Cabrera is -13.7
...2 more starters, then no one else was trusted enough to be given this many innings

WOW!!! These two guys are at polar extremes defensively. I wouldn't say that much, but that's what the stats say, for those who like to use stats (the majority of redszone, unfortunately, when it comes to defense).


Now that we've had six weeks of baseball played it's a good time to look at this again.

Kingspoint
05-11-2010, 04:15 AM
Love the move Walt made today. Best news of the year, next to the Chapman signing. The addition by subtraction of Taveras is not measurable through just one player. The whole team gets much better because of it. Removing a low OBP guy from the #1 batting position and from Dusty's ability to use him that way is huge. Giving him Cabrera to replace him is not. But they would have had the same result with Janish. It's just that Baker probably doesn't put Janish in the #2 hole. Cabrera's asset is that his average will be better than Janish's so he can move a player from 1st to 3rd more often and score a player from 2nd more often than Janish can.

..and this, too.

Kingspoint
05-11-2010, 04:37 AM
Only 10 other Shortstops in the Majors have played as many innings as Cabrera. Janish isn't being given the smallest chance at all for playing time, even when his Defense would be useful, as most of the REDS' games have been close.

29 teams have Shortstops with at least 150 innings played (Cabrera has over 250). Of those 29, Cabrera has a UZR/150 of -7.0 ranking him 21st....a huge improvement over his ranking from last season where of the Top-29 Shortstops of Innings Played, Cabrera ranked 28th with a -12.4 rating (Janish ranked 3rd with a 22.1 rating in 592 Innings...remembering that Cabrera has had about 250 so far this year, so about 2.4 times what Cabrera has done this season).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=550&type=1&season=2009&month=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=150&type=1&season=2010&month=0

Janish hasn't even been given 50 innings this year. That's ridiculous. Did anyone see that horrible display of Defense by Cabrera yesterday? We've probably already lost a couple of close games this year because of errors both physical and mental plus his inability to get to balls that Janish could get to.

Vottomatic
05-11-2010, 08:42 AM
Janish should get to play here and there to keep him fresh. And he should be a late inning defensive replacement.

Kingspoint
05-11-2010, 05:50 PM
Janish should get to play here and there to keep him fresh. And he should be a late inning defensive replacement.

That should be the minimum, but even that would be acceptable. He's rotting away on the bench.

sabometrics
05-11-2010, 07:08 PM
I'm not big on Janish, but Cabrera's play in the field has been at the point it's almost unbearable of late. O-Cab's bat is a plus, but he's aging and needs a day off here and there to keep him fresh and make sure he doesn't lose a step like he obviously had yesterday. He must have paid off the official scorer because he should have had two errors but somehow they were ruled hits.

Janish should under no circumstances come close to getting the majority of the playing time, but he needs to get in there more often than he is right now. It's clear Cabrera just can't be trotted out there everyday the way he has been thus far. Slowly I think Dusty is starting to realize this as well.

Stingray
08-19-2010, 04:35 PM
It's interesting to review this thread now that Dusty's been forced to give Janish playing time.