Henry Rodriguez Update (Espn.com)

[New Fever]

Reds prospect



Venezuelan newspaper El Universal profiles 19-year-old shortstop Hendry Rodriguez, a Cincinnati Reds prospect who excelled this year for the Aguilas del Zulia. In his rookie year in the Venezuelan winter league, Rodriguez batted .368 with a .544 slugging percentage.



Hernandez also had 30 hits in the round robin playoff series, which broke a team record previously held by teammate Alberto Callaspo.



Last year Rodriguez hit .322 for the Gulf Coast League Reds.

This is an article about Henry Rodriguez:
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F7tJMgm

[Ron Madden]

WOW!

[REDblooded]

I love me some Henry

[RedEye]

Who is this guy and why have I never heard of him on RedsZone?

[dougdirt]

Who is this guy and why have I never heard of him on RedsZone?

You don't follow the Prospect Rankings much do you? A certain poster has been banging that HRod drum for like 10 votes in a row.

[bucksfan2]

You don't follow the Prospect Rankings much do you? A certain poster has been banging that HRod drum for like 10 votes in a row.

Didn't he play for the Expos years ago?

[lollipopcurve]

HRod was on no one's radar until he exploded in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason. He started out in their junior circuit down there, hit well and then moved up to the senior league, where he played SS (he didn't play a lot of SS for the Reds GCL team in 09) and hit leadoff most of the time.

An example of a young Latin ballplayer whose "breakout" comes in his home country, not stateside. He's a surprise to everyone this winter.

[dougdirt]

HRod was on no one's radar until he exploded in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason. He started out in their junior circuit down there, hit well and then moved up to the senior league, where he played SS (he didn't play a lot of SS for the Reds GCL team in 09) and hit leadoff most of the team.

An example of a young Latin ballplayer whose "breakout" comes in his home country, not stateside. He's a surprise to everyone this winter.

He was on my radar. Just didn't talk about him here. After seeing him swing though, I like him more than I did at the end of the regular season. And is it really a breakout on his home soil? The kid did hit .322 in the GCL this year.

[OnBaseMachine]

He was on my radar. Just didn't talk about him here. After seeing him swing though, I like him more than I did at the end of the regular season. And is it really a breakout on his home soil? The kid did hit .322 in the GCL this year.

I remember you and I discussed him a little in the GCL Reds thread over the summer.

[lollipopcurve]

He was on my radar. Just didn't talk about him here. After seeing him swing though, I like him more than I did at the end of the regular season. And is it really a breakout on his home soil? The kid did hit .322 in the GCL this year.

If you say so. He isn't on your top 40, and that's got guys like Mark Fleury and Alexander Smit on it.

We all saw HRod's numbers in the GCL, but nobody made much noise about him. When they needed an infielder in Billings, Cris Rodriguez got the call, not HRod, so I have to think HRod has surprised even the Reds.

And yes, he has had a breakout in the VWL -- playing SS and hitting leadoff to the tune of the high .300s, ahead of Callaspo, qualifies as a breakout for a 19-year-old who's had 1 season in the GCL.

[dougdirt]

If you say so. He isn't on your top 40, and that's got guys like Mark Fleury and Alexander Smit on it.

From my site on October 1st in the State of the Farm for Third Base


Henry Rodriguez was another high average guy at second base for the GCL Reds where the 19 year old hit .322/..354/.421. Unlike Sierra, Rodriguez wasn’t completely reliant on an absolutely unsustainable BABIP. In 161 plate appearances Rodriguez had a 4.3% walk rate and 11.2% strikeout rate. Since he played in the GCL I honestly have no idea what his defense is like.
The bold part is why he didn't make my Top 40. I had no idea what his defense was like at all as I had not seen him. Now that I have seen him, he would be in the mid 20's.



And yes, he has had a breakout in the VWL -- playing SS and hitting leadoff to the tune of the high .300s, ahead of Callaspo, qualifies as a breakout for a 19-year-old who's had 1 season in the GCL.
The shortstop thing was nice, but the bat isn't much of a breakout. The guy has hit .316 and .322 the last two seasons.

[lollipopcurve]

The shortstop thing was nice, but the bat isn't much of a breakout. The guy has hit .316 and .322 the last two seasons.

There's a bigger jump from the GCL to the VWL than you realize. And the fact that he played SS constitutes a kind of defensive breakout in and of itself. If he's passable over there, it makes him a far better prospect as a utility player than he'd appeared at first glance.

Add it up, and it's a breakout, of sorts.

[dougdirt]

There's a bigger jump from the GCL to the VWL than you realize. And the fact that he played SS constitutes a kind of defensive breakout in and of itself. If he's passable over there, it makes him a far better prospect as a utility player than he'd appeared at first glance.

Add it up, and it's a breakout, of sorts.

Sure, the talent jump is huge. But I can't call that a breakout. One, it was based on a very high BABIP of .420 and two over 60 plate appearances. Basically his skillset looks exactly the same. That isn't a breakout. If he started hitting a ton of HR's then maybe we would talk breakout, but when its still just fast guy, lots of contact and high average.... its not a breakout.

[Lockdwn11]

I first started following Rodriguez when Doug posted something on this board about him after the GCL so he was on Doug's radar.

[lollipopcurve]

Sure, the talent jump is huge. But I can't call that a breakout. One, it was based on a very high BABIP of .420 and two over 60 plate appearances. Basically his skillset looks exactly the same. That isn't a breakout. If he started hitting a ton of HR's then maybe we would talk breakout, but when its still just fast guy, lots of contact and high average.... its not a breakout.

So, a guy goes from not in your top 40 into the 20s...what's that called?

Sorry, I'm calling it a breakout, because my definition is that a guy starts playing a lot better than I thought he could play.

[lollipopcurve]

I first started following Rodriguez when Doug posted something on this board about him after the GCL so he was on Doug's radar.

Not as a top 40 prospect.

[RedEye]

You don't follow the Prospect Rankings much do you? A certain poster has been banging that HRod drum for like 10 votes in a row.

My bad, Doug. I figured you'd be on to him if anyone was. :) Anyway, glad to hear the Reds have yet another good prospect at the position!

[REDblooded]

I asked Jocketty about Henry Rodriguez's defense today at the caravan stop in Bloomington and he said it was "excellent"...

[GOYA]

Henry was mentioned in a few minor league update threads. There are some defensive stats listed here.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rodrig003hen

[schmidty622]

you don't follow the Prospect Rankings much do you? A certain poster has been banging that HRod drum for like 10 votes in a row.

He def has an abundance of tools.

[bellhead]

Does he start in billings or does he get a full year in Dayton?

[lollipopcurve]

Does he start in billings or does he get a full year in Dayton?

I think full season ball, easy. Put him at 2B opposite Gregorius in Dayton.

[dougdirt]

I think full season ball, easy. Put him at 2B opposite Gregorius in Dayton.

Perhaps even at 3B in Dayton. I think where he winds up will be one of the more interesting things as far as roster selection goes in early April.

[lollipopcurve]

Perhaps even at 3B in Dayton. I think where he winds up will be one of the more interesting things as far as roster selection goes in early April.

I agree. I really think he could play above Dayton. They tend to be pretty conservative with promotions, so I doubt it happens right out of ST.

[Scrap Irony]

Rodriguez and Gregorious should share the middle infield chores at Dayton. Both have played both positions, IIRC.

You need not decide right away who plays what spot. You have three or four years. Right now, I'm more interested in the bat anyway.

If Rodriguez hits, however, he may be fast-tracked and have to play mostly 2B, as Castro isn't going to go anywhere off short.

[corkedbat]

Rodriguez and Gregorious should share the middle infield chores at Dayton. Both have played both positions, IIRC.

You need not decide right away who plays what spot. You have three or four years. Right now, I'm more interested in the bat anyway.

If Rodriguez hits, however, he may be fast-tracked and have to play mostly 2B, as Castro isn't going to go anywhere off short.

I have no problem with young MI's rotating if there is more than one legit prospect at a lower minor league stop. Might help if there is a need at @B a little later.

[mth123]

I asked Jocketty about Henry Rodriguez's defense today at the caravan stop in Bloomington and he said it was "excellent"...

Bumping this thread and this particular post from January of 2010 to restart some discussion of Henry Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is 21 years old and has been promoted agressively having already logged 168 PAs at AA. Todd Frazier's time at 2B failed and Chris Valaika seems to have stalled. Brandon Phillips probably returns with his option invoked for 2012, but after that, it isn't completely clear who the 2B in Cincy will be. Phillps will be a hard act to follow. He's been a pretty decent, if flawed, offensive performer in the MI and his defense is second to none and IMO converts a solid all around defense to an equalizing force that makes some shaky pitchers look a lot better than they really are. Ronald Torreyes looks like a guy who could replace Phillips defensively, while being a contributor on offense, but has a long way to go and won't be ready IMO.

That brings me to Rodriguez. H-Rod has generally hit like Phillips with an .810 OPS at Low A in a 2010 season that included 14 homers and 33 steals in 547 PAs. In the first half of 2011, in hitter friendly A+, H-Rod had an .891 OPS with 8 HR and 12 SBs in 254 PAs. Those are Phillips like numbers including the high number of CS that go along with those SBs. He's struggled in AA with an OPS of .700 in 168 PAs, but he's a little young for the league and suspect he may adjust.

So, can H-Rod take over at 2B in 2013? Will his bat continue to play at the upper levels and in MLB? How is his defense really? The quote above sounds promising, but I've heard other reports that his defense is lacking in both range and consistency. Unless the Reds come up with at least a plus defender at 2b, the drop from Phillips other wordly defense might have a large impact on the run prevention in Cincinnati. Is this guy potentially a long term answer or would he simply be a stopgap until somebody more touted like Hamilton or Torreyes is ready?

Please discuss.

[Scrap Irony]

It wouldn't shock me to see the Reds drop Phillips after this season, saving the $12 million for a TOR pitcher/ cleanup hitter in the lineup. (Part of me thinks Ubaldo and Beltran are added.) Valaika, Janish, perhaps Kris Negron, Cody Puckett, a minor league free agent, and the ageless wonder that is Miguel split 2B among them until Rodriguez is ready at the halfway point of the season.

Rodriguez can certainly play the position. He has above average tools for a 2B pretty much across the board. He will hit with pop and has a decent hit tool. His arm is good, range can be solid, and speed is solid. If he were to come up at the All Star break in 2012, I'd expect a line of 270/330/400 with defense league average, maybe a little below.

But he has been known to vapor lock and his work ethic has also been questioned. That won't fly with Jocketty or the Red veterans.

One off the wall suggestion might be to be really aggressive with Torreyes this year and next. A move to Bakersfield before the end of the year (depending on how Dayton is in the playoff race), then another move to AA at the start of next season might see the young hitter as an option out of either Spring Training or later in the year. (Jocketty has been aggressive in that area, taking really untested guys if he thinks they're the best choice.) That would give the Reds a defender as good as Phillips. (Yeah, I said that.) His bat would be the interesting item, but, as a likely eighth place hitter, it wouldn't have to be much. I think he could go 240/300/350 or better while playing Gold Glove caliber defense.

[The DARK]

I think he needs more time than we're allowing him. For 2012, I think Phillips absolutely must be resigned. He has the most fire and defensive prowess of anyone in that dugout, and he's a pretty high-end offensive contributor for the position, even when his numbers are down. Half a season of replacement parts followed by the untested and likely overpromoted H-Rod isn't going to cut it.

I like H-Rod as much as everyone else and think that he and Torreyes bode well for our future, but they're still young and toolsy. I'll spend the extra money on Phillips, option or extension, if it means that our prospects have real time to develop. Plenty of things can go wrong between A+ and the majors.

[Benihana]

It wouldn't shock me to see the Reds drop Phillips after this season, saving the $12 million for a TOR pitcher/ cleanup hitter in the lineup. (Part of me thinks Ubaldo and Beltran are added.) Valaika, Janish, perhaps Kris Negron, Cody Puckett, a minor league free agent, and the ageless wonder that is Miguel split 2B among them until Rodriguez is ready at the halfway point of the season.

Rodriguez can certainly play the position. He has above average tools for a 2B pretty much across the board. He will hit with pop and has a decent hit tool. His arm is good, range can be solid, and speed is solid. If he were to come up at the All Star break in 2012, I'd expect a line of 270/330/400 with defense league average, maybe a little below.

But he has been known to vapor lock and his work ethic has also been questioned. That won't fly with Jocketty or the Red veterans.

One off the wall suggestion might be to be really aggressive with Torreyes this year and next. A move to Bakersfield before the end of the year (depending on how Dayton is in the playoff race), then another move to AA at the start of next season might see the young hitter as an option out of either Spring Training or later in the year. (Jocketty has been aggressive in that area, taking really untested guys if he thinks they're the best choice.) That would give the Reds a defender as good as Phillips. (Yeah, I said that.) His bat would be the interesting item, but, as a likely eighth place hitter, it wouldn't have to be much. I think he could go 240/300/350 or better while playing Gold Glove caliber defense.

Neither Rodriguez nor (certaintly) Torreyes will be ready to be a starter in the major leagues in 2012, especially not for a team that wants to contend. I'm even skeptical about 2013. I really don't see either making a significant contribution until 2014 if at all. I see H-Rod as more of a Miguel Cairoesque utility man than anything. If the Reds have a true 2B heir in their system, it's either Torreyes or Hamilton IMO. I think they'll need a veteran stopgap for 2013 assuming BP walks (cant imagine them not picking up next year's option).

[Scrap Irony]

If they make a deal for a TOR starter or a LF slugger, Phillips might be too cost prohibitive to keep.

As to whether either Rodriguez or Torreyes will be ready, none of us know that for certain. Rodriguez is now in AA. If he hits well the rest of this season (and he's done nothing but hit well since signing) and half a season next season, he'll be ready enough. He won't be Phillips offensively, certainly, nor defensively, but he'd be around league average. Perhaps more.

Torreyes is a wild card. He's hitting 400 right now in low A. Defensively, he'd be nearly Phillips' equal next season, perhaps better. Offensively, he'd be horrid. But I'm guessing-- by aggressively promoting him this season AND next-- Torreyes, as a 20 year old rookie, would be above average as a second baseman.

[HokieRed]

I predict BP will be here beyond 2012. Is another overlooked possibility Zack Cozart--if we should make a move at SS?

[Benihana]

If they make a deal for a TOR starter or a LF slugger, Phillips might be too cost prohibitive to keep.

As to whether either Rodriguez or Torreyes will be ready, none of us know that for certain. Rodriguez is now in AA. If he hits well the rest of this season (and he's done nothing but hit well since signing) and half a season next season, he'll be ready enough. He won't be Phillips offensively, certainly, nor defensively, but he'd be around league average. Perhaps more.

Torreyes is a wild card. He's hitting 400 right now in low A. Defensively, he'd be nearly Phillips' equal next season, perhaps better. Offensively, he'd be horrid. But I'm guessing-- by aggressively promoting him this season AND next-- Torreyes, as a 20 year old rookie, would be above average as a second baseman.


No, they wouldn't.

H-Rod is a 21 year old in AA with a .721 OPS. That would likely translate to a .520 OPS at best in the major leagues. At this point, he would make Paul Janish look like Albert Pujols. He can possibly get there eventually, but no chance for being "around league average, perhaps more" MLB 2B next season.

Same for Torreyes. Even his biggest supporters would have serious doubts (putting it lightly) he can be "above average" as a MLB 2B 18 months from now. Sorry, but you're dreaming here.

Just ask redsof72 who knows both players better than anyone on this board.

[Scrap Irony]

Yes, they could.

18 months is a long, long time in prospect world, Beni. And Torreyes has hit like a demon since beginning pro ball. His closest competition? Mike Trout, who, 18 months ago, was playing in low A ball.

Speaking of 18 mopnths ago:

Devin Mesoraco was a bust, having played only 92 games in Sarasota.

8 of BA's top ten prospects were in A+ ball or lower.

2 of BA's top ten were still amateurs.

As to Rodriguez, the slash line of a league average 2B is less than impressive. A 700 OPS tops a 250-ish BA and a 400 slugging. Given the rest of this season in AA AND the beginning of next, do you really think Rodriguez would put up a 520 OPS in the majors? Realize, too, that the lowerst OPS of his career (season) is 250 points higher than that.

Meanwhile, Phillips will cost $12 million next season. If the Reds grab a TOR starter and/ or a monster cleanup bat for LF, where will that money come from? You can't deal Arroyo. Bruce and Cueto are likely to go anywhere. Salary bumps from arb eligibles are going to take up Cordero's cash. It's not likely that Castellini will boost salary all that much.

I could see the Reds stop-gapping 2B for a few months, hoping for league average while being good offensively elsewhere.

[Benihana]

Yes, they could.

18 months is a long, long time in prospect world, Beni. And Torreyes has hit like a demon since beginning pro ball. His closest competition? Mike Trout, who, 18 months ago, was playing in low A ball.

Speaking of 18 mopnths ago:

Devin Mesoraco was a bust, having played only 92 games in Sarasota.

8 of BA's top ten prospects were in A+ ball or lower.

2 of BA's top ten were still amateurs.

As to Rodriguez, the slash line of a league average 2B is less than impressive. A 700 OPS tops a 250-ish BA and a 400 slugging. Given the rest of this season in AA AND the beginning of next, do you really think Rodriguez would put up a 520 OPS in the majors? Realize, too, that the lowerst OPS of his career (season) is 250 points higher than that.

Meanwhile, Phillips will cost $12 million next season. If the Reds grab a TOR starter and/ or a monster cleanup bat for LF, where will that money come from? You can't deal Arroyo. Bruce and Cueto are likely to go anywhere. Salary bumps from arb eligibles are going to take up Cordero's cash. It's not likely that Castellini will boost salary all that much.

I could see the Reds stop-gapping 2B for a few months, hoping for league average while being good offensively elsewhere.

18 months is a long time in the prospect world. But...the jumps from A to AA to AAA to MLB are huge. To your point, look at H-Rod's numbers in AA compared to the rest of his career. Then consider that he has two more chasms to cross, and he hasn't even really gotten proper footing where he currently stands. Torreyes is a great prospect who many have high hopes for, but he is 5'5 and in low A ball. Penciling him into a big league lineup anytime in the next 24 months is dreamy at best, IMO. Not saying either guy can't get there at some point, but 2012 will not be the year either one of these guys is an above average 2B in Cincinnati.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[Baseball]

The Reds org. know he is a great talent, no question.

BUT

It's a known fact that when he was with Dayton last year, Bakersfield this year, Carolina and even extended to all levels in Spring Training that he is one of the worst teammates to have in the organization attitude-wise. Think Milton Bradley when you think of this kid because that's the comparison he's drawing to other teams and scouts throughout the minor leagues.

It's become a problem with many in the organization and it will hold him back.

[Scrap Irony]

Link?

[icehole3]

The Reds org. know he is a great talent, no question.

BUT

It's a known fact that when he was with Dayton last year, Bakersfield this year, Carolina and even extended to all levels in Spring Training that he is one of the worst teammates to have in the organization attitude-wise. Think Milton Bradley when you think of this kid because that's the comparison he's drawing to other teams and scouts throughout the minor leagues.

It's become a problem with many in the organization and it will hold him back.

Ive never heard of any kid in the organization being like Milton Bradley, this is crazy talk

[dougdirt]

Ive never heard of any kid in the organization being like Milton Bradley, this is crazy talk

As bad as Milton Bradley, yeah, it is probably crazy talk. But, there are some work ethic issues with HRod that have been out there for a while.

[Scrap Irony]

It's not held him back at all so far.

And, if he continues to hit as well as he has, it won't.

Talent trumps attitude. Always has. Always will.

[icehole3]

As bad as Milton Bradley, yeah, it is probably crazy talk. But, there are some work ethic issues with HRod that have been out there for a while.

fair enough, just thought the Milton Bradley reference was way out there

[dougdirt]

It's not held him back at all so far.

And, if he continues to hit as well as he has, it won't.

Talent trumps attitude. Always has. Always will.

Except his issues tend to be that he doesn't care much about defense at all. So hitting talent with no defense could hold him back.

[mth123]

Except his issues tend to be that he doesn't care much about defense at all. So hitting talent with no defense could hold him back.

No poor defenders up the middle unless its in spot play a la Cairo. Above average should be the minimum for a starter. Its really what I'm trying to determine with H-Rod. Even if he hits, how huge will the drop from Phillips be on defense? Pitching staff is too fragile to handle a change from taking away hits to giving away outs.