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TheBigLebowski
01-29-2010, 03:49 PM
I've been out of the loop the last couple of days...read the thread about us coming close to signing Orlando Cabrera and then I just read an update on rotoworld.com stating we were close to signing Orlando Hudson.

Are we in on both? Or is there a mistake here?? Help a confused Bakermetrician.

Donder
01-29-2010, 04:08 PM
I hadn't heard anything serious about Hudson until your post. Sure enough: "The Nats certainly can provide a large chunk of playing time for Hudson, but the Reds can do that as well and are thought to be highly interested."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_MLB.aspx

I personally don't believe the Reds would want to move Phillips or Hudson to SS. So I doubt it's a match. But that's just my opinion.

BLEEDS
01-29-2010, 04:12 PM
I think they got their info mixed up.

I don't think we have the slightest interest in Hudson.

We are looking at the other Orlando.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

schmidty622
01-29-2010, 04:27 PM
I'd rather have O-Hudson than O-Cabrera. He gets on base more and slugs at a higher rate. He'd be a better fit in the two hole. Too bad the Reds refuse to move anyone from the position they were brought up at.

TheBigLebowski
01-30-2010, 08:56 AM
Looks like O-Hud is much more expensive (demanding 9 MM/yr) from the Nats, hence the interest in O-Cab.

mroby85
01-30-2010, 09:28 AM
Wow, thats a big price tag for Hudson. I actually wanted them to bring him in last year, but I don't think I would shell out that kind of cash for him. I always just thought how great him and phillips would be defensively up the middle, and he's not a slouch at the plate either.

vottofan4life
01-30-2010, 09:50 AM
if theyre talkin to hudson its got to make you guys believe that phillips will most likely be going to ss

mroby85
01-30-2010, 12:18 PM
Or to the Mets. I don't know how much there is to those rumors, but him and Arroyo's name seemed to be popping up quite a bit.

robmadden1
01-30-2010, 08:22 PM
Yahoo! Sports reports free agent Orlando Cabrera is leaning toward signing with the Reds, who would make him their starting shorstop. An agreement may be reached tonight, the site reports.

Cabrera is choosing between the Reds and the Rockies, who would likely use him as an infield reserve.

The Denver Post reports the Rockies might turn to free agent Melvin Mora if Cabrera goes to Cincinnati. Mora's agent tells the newspaper that Colorado is a finalist for Mora. The Rockies see him backing up at second base and third base and in the outfield.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2010-01-30/orlando-cabrera-reportedly-leaning-toward-reds

Baseball Lover
01-30-2010, 08:55 PM
Still not sure why the Astros aren't inquiring... I guess they wasted all of their money on Lyon

gilpdawg
01-30-2010, 09:46 PM
At the Dayton Caravan, someone asked about Cabrera and Walt kind of slipped and showed his hand. He said "we're signing him to be the starting shortstop," then quickly added "if." I think it's a done deal, just by reading between the lines there.

yab1112
01-30-2010, 11:21 PM
From Tim Brown's twitter:


Cabrera agrees to 1-year deal with Reds. 3 mil. Second-year option for another 3 mil.


Ultimately, OC wasnt ready to come off SS for rockies.

TheBigLebowski
01-31-2010, 12:04 AM
1 year, 3 Mil. Option for a 2nd year.

Put me on board as loving this.


http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo

reds77
01-31-2010, 12:14 AM
Add me to the list of people liking the deal. Hopefully is glove isn't too bad.

Griffey012
01-31-2010, 12:21 AM
WOW, is that a player option or a team option? 1 yr 3 mil with the possibility of 2 yrs 6 mil. Perfect move, with Rolen and Phillips surrounding him, I bet his defense recovers a bit this year. Pencil him in the 2 spot behind Stubbs and he is a valuable bat.

Stubbs CF
O-Cab SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Phillips SS
Bruce RF
Heisey/Gomes?/Dickerson/Balentien/etc. LF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

With a strong pitching staff this is a very solid lineup.

I couldn't have asked for a better off season based off what was on the market. We didnt lose any youth, we didnt overpay for anyone, and we added a potential stud pitcher. Good work Jocketty, and way to expand the budget Bob.

cbowen2112
01-31-2010, 12:24 AM
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100131&content_id=8001704&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

CRedsLarkin11
01-31-2010, 02:09 AM
Good signing. Janish isn't going to be a regular at SS in the majors, he is best suited as a late inning defensive replacement and that is exactly what he can be now. The front office saw what most of us did, they need someone to fill the gap until our prospects hopefully take over.

Now... of course we'd all like Damon but know that isn't going to happen. I would definitely settle with a Gomes signing to end the offseason

Redsfan320
01-31-2010, 07:18 AM
Just woke up to see the happy news!!! Great signing, especially if his glove starts working again.

320

scott91575
01-31-2010, 08:07 AM
If he can return to his defensive form prior to last year it is a really good signing. Yet last year his defense sucked out loud. He was one of the worst defensive SS's in baseball.

We shall see. His bat has been pretty consistent, and assuming he does not fall off all of a sudden it's a big upgrade over Janish. Yet his glove will determine how good of a signing this is. Of course a one year deal with a team option the risk is low.

I give this a thumbs up.

lucky bugle boy
01-31-2010, 08:47 AM
If he can return to his defensive form prior to last year it is a really good signing. Yet last year his defense sucked out loud. He was one of the worst defensive SS's in baseball.



That's my only concern as well. If his defense is what it historically has been, I'm excited.

I assume he must be a passable option at 2nd base as well since that is what the Rockies were looking at signing him for. In that case, this also provides a back-up for Phillips with Janish playing shortstop on days off for Phillips. This option wouldn't be much of a defensive drop-off.

My favorite thing about this signing is that it puts Janish in his proper role; glove expert off the bench for late innings and occasional infield starter to give others a day off.

GIDP
01-31-2010, 09:35 AM
A little too much money but I'm more confident that Cabrera is going to be a more productive SS than Janish over all so I cant say I'm disappointed.

I doubt thats a player option. It might be mutual at most.

BigRed
01-31-2010, 10:39 AM
I also like the signing. As long as there are no big injuries, I think the club can contend.

PhillipsHead
01-31-2010, 12:38 PM
A good #2 bat at 3 mil a year.

I like it.

BLEEDS
01-31-2010, 12:41 PM
Not sure how it figures to be too much money. Per CHONE and such it's right in line with his projected WAR, maybe even a bargain.

I would assume that the option is a team option - I haven't seen many deals where the player says "Nah, I don't want to play for you this year, give me $1M and I'll walk".

I think the consensus seems to be that this is a "projected floor" - meaning you know what the worst of Cabrera could be, and it's much higher than Janish's.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

CySeymour
01-31-2010, 12:42 PM
A good #2 bat at 3 mil a year.

I like it.

I don't mind the $$$$...but don't think he is a #2 hitter

BLEEDS
01-31-2010, 12:46 PM
I don't mind the $$$$...but don't think he is a #2 hitter

True that. This team is filled with 6-8 hitters, especially versus RHP.

Cabreras bat fits better in the 2 hole than Janish - agreed?! ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

CySeymour
01-31-2010, 12:46 PM
True that. This team is filled with 6-8 hitters, especially versus RHP.

Cabreras bat fits better in the 2 hole than Janish - agreed?! ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

lol true...but that isn't saying much hehehe

gedred69
01-31-2010, 03:17 PM
Let's hope he stays on the field more than Gonzo, and isn't another Patterson or Taveras bust. Reds are due to have one of these off-season stop gap signings pay off.

DannyB
01-31-2010, 05:45 PM
Soooo
Wonder who gets bumped off the 40? :D

TheBigLebowski
01-31-2010, 06:24 PM
I don't mind the $$$$...but don't think he is a #2 hitter

Can someone pick me up here?

Ghosts of 1990
01-31-2010, 07:03 PM
I'm really excited about this signing. This tells me that the organization believes we can compete. What other teams were in the running for Cabrera? Colorado? He signed with us over other teams that are considered contenders. That is exciting.

Kingspoint
02-01-2010, 12:38 AM
3rd year in a row the REDS have given Dusty Baker a player who'll play full time while batting at the top of the order who can't get on base.

Stupid move, unless you like mediocrity and bad defense.

Two 35-year olds manning the Right Side of the Infield. Great.

Say, "Hello" to the bottom half of the National League Team ERA.

Janish starting would have done several things:

1. Remove Dusty's desire to put a guy who can't get on base at the top of the order because Janish would have probably batted 8th (He's not a "veteran"). Thus, a better player, a player who gets on base would have batted 2nd in the lineup, probably Dickerson, who's a very good OBP guy.

2. Remove that automatic out from the top of the order so that Votto's not coming up with 2 outs so often and nobody on base.

3. Given the Right side of the infield a boost with the diminishing range of a 35-year-old 3rd Baseman.

4. Given confidence to the pitching staff by providing better defense to the team's most important defensive position, thus allowing them to pitch more intelligently (something the young pitchers on the staff really need) instead of over-throwing trying to strike everybody out and as a result only lasting 5 innings (forcing Baker to get them into the 110+ pitch counts on a regular basis).

5. Open the door for Zach Cozart for 2011 instead of having Cabrera hold back Cozart in 2011.

Prediction: 72 wins, 90 losses

Kingspoint
02-01-2010, 12:39 AM
Janish isn't going to be a regular at SS in the majors.


He doesn't have to be.

He would have been adequate for this team for 2011. Cozart would be the starter in 2012.

Kingspoint
02-01-2010, 12:41 AM
A good #2 bat at 3 mil a year.



I've never met anyone who considers an OBP of .310 to be good for a #2 hitter.

That position is left for players who can get on base at least at a .350 clip. Get used to Votto coming to bat with none or one on base like last year.

Kingspoint
02-01-2010, 12:44 AM
True that. This team is filled with 6-8 hitters, especially versus RHP.

Cabrera's bat fits better in the 2 hole than Janish - agreed?! ;)



The difference is so small it doesn't matter, if there will even be a difference that favors Cabrera as there's hope that Janish's OBP will improve by 30 points, but little to none with Cabrera. especially considering the defensive differences that will be displayed between the two in 2010.

Dusty wouldn't be apt to put Janish in the #2 hole as much as he's locked into doing it with Cabrera.

With Janish, we could have gotten a real #2 hitter in the #2 hole for Votto and Bruce and Phillips when they come to bat.

BLEEDS
02-01-2010, 11:51 AM
3rd year in a row the REDS have given Dusty Baker a player who'll play full time while batting at the top of the order who can't get on base.

.335 is better than .300 or worse, from Janish.



Two 35-year olds manning the Right Side of the Infield. Great.

Say, "Hello" to the bottom half of the National League Team ERA.


Rolen brings GG defense to 3rd base. This is beyond absurd. You'd rather have Edwin back?!?!

Cabrera's UZR average is good.
Many reports are saying Oaklands infield and Minnesota's carpet led him to have more errors - which was the driving force behind his bad UZR last year.
UZR is to be averaged over 3 years and his was great, good, then below average.

I'm guessing with Gold Gloves to his Right and Left, he'll probably be above average.



Janish starting would have done several things:

1. Remove Dusty's desire to put a guy who can't get on base at the top of the order because Janish would have probably batted 8th (He's not a "veteran"). Thus, a better player, a player who gets on base would have batted 2nd in the lineup, probably Dickerson, who's a very good OBP guy.


You're crazy if you believe that it would remove Dusty's desire to bat SS second.

Dickerson can't stay healthy enough to get on the field - and by the way you want your LF-ers to OPS .900 and hit 3/4/5 - not bat second because they are speedy and scrappy.
IFF we had OPS to spare around the rest of the field, we could afford to keep an oft-injured speedy defensive guy to man LF.
Otherwise, this is not justification for upgrading your SS position



2. Remove that automatic out from the top of the order so that Votto's not coming up with 2 outs so often and nobody on base.


2 is related one, which is already debunked.



3. Given the Right side of the infield a boost with the diminishing range of a 35-year-old 3rd Baseman.


The reports of Janish's wizardy with the glove, are preliminary at best and exxagerated at worst.
As has been stated before, Rolen's D is GG caliber.




4. Given confidence to the pitching staff by providing better defense to the team's most important defensive position, thus allowing them to pitch more intelligently (something the young pitchers on the staff really need) instead of over-throwing trying to strike everybody out and as a result only lasting 5 innings (forcing Baker to get them into the 110+ pitch counts on a regular basis).


Again, these points aren't really separate ones, just the same ones restated.

We get it, you think Janish is the best Defensive SS in the game, and Cabrera is a washed up hack.




5. Open the door for Zach Cozart for 2011 instead of having Cabrera hold back Cozart in 2011.


Cabrera has an OPTION for 2011. Do you know what that means?
Cozart can still knock the door down and force the Reds to play him - see Bruce, Jay.
It's a much better option than having the door WIDE open and gaping, and forcing someone to join the show before they are ready.

Oh, let me guess, Cozart was on track to be batting 2nd and playing SS for the Reds on July 9th with Alonso at first right?!?!? All until Cabrera came along.




Prediction: 72 wins, 90 losses

So, not only is Cabrera not any better than Janish, he actually is a -5.0 WAR player now!??!

Wow, you have lost it.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Mr Larkin
02-01-2010, 01:08 PM
3rd year in a row the REDS have given Dusty Baker a player who'll play full time while batting at the top of the order who can't get on base.

Stupid move, unless you like mediocrity and bad defense.

Two 35-year olds manning the Right Side of the Infield. Great.

Say, "Hello" to the bottom half of the National League Team ERA.

Janish starting would have done several things:

1. Remove Dusty's desire to put a guy who can't get on base at the top of the order because Janish would have probably batted 8th (He's not a "veteran"). Thus, a better player, a player who gets on base would have batted 2nd in the lineup, probably Dickerson, who's a very good OBP guy.

2. Remove that automatic out from the top of the order so that Votto's not coming up with 2 outs so often and nobody on base.

3. Given the Right side of the infield a boost with the diminishing range of a 35-year-old 3rd Baseman.

4. Given confidence to the pitching staff by providing better defense to the team's most important defensive position, thus allowing them to pitch more intelligently (something the young pitchers on the staff really need) instead of over-throwing trying to strike everybody out and as a result only lasting 5 innings (forcing Baker to get them into the 110+ pitch counts on a regular basis).

5. Open the door for Zach Cozart for 2011 instead of having Cabrera hold back Cozart in 2011.

Prediction: 72 wins, 90 losses

I think you are nuts. Rolen is a solid 3rd baseman. If he stays healthy, that is a great late season my Walt.

O-Cabrera is a huge step up from Janish. I would love to see Janish be a major league SS, but so far he is not. He plays solid D, but can barley hit his weight.

Who says Cabrera will hit in the two hole? I think that it would be better if we had a line-up that looked like this -

CF Stubbs
2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
SS Cabrera
LF Your guess is as good as mine
C Ramon or Ryan

That would move the "more expereinced" player down to the 6 spot. Keep Phillips in the top four spots. Use Rolen as the team leader we need him to be. Keep Votto in the role of best hitter.

This could be great. I choose to be hopeful.

SullyGator
02-01-2010, 03:14 PM
Just a side note, MLB.com is showing the Cabrera press conference. Video and audio keep going on and off though.


EDIT

Scratch that, they gave up trying to make the video work.

Jack Burton
02-01-2010, 03:50 PM
Hate this signing, guy is terrible and on top of that he's considered a cancer. This is basically throwing money away...

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 05:10 AM
.335 is better than .300 or worse, from Janish.

Cabrera won't OBP .335. You know that. And Janish will be better than .300 in "games he starts". You know that. (Games he doesn't start don't count as you bat differently, and take fewer pitches.)

Rolen brings GG defense to 3rd base. This is beyond absurd. You'd rather have Edwin back?!?!

No. I don't want Edwin back. That's a plus-plus defensively, but Rolen will be only average defensively (if his back holds up) instead of Edwin's "F-level" Defense.

Cabrera's UZR average is good.

I didn't know being ranked 29 out of 31 starting shortstops in UZR/150 rating was considered good". (at least 500 IP) Don't believe in Bell Curve, huh? Everyone gets an "A"? Don't want to hurt anyone's feelings now. They might have to try to improve themselves.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=550&type=0&season=2009&month=0

Many reports are saying Oaklands infield and Minnesota's carpet led him to have more errors - which was the driving force behind his bad UZR last year.
UZR is to be averaged over 3 years and his was great, good, then below average.

Oh, it was the Carpet! "That's the ticket." Orlando Cabrera: the Jon Lovitz of Baseball. Funny how the guy playing next to him, 3B Joe Crede, was 1st among the 31 MLB players with at least 500 Innings played. One of the guys on the other side of him, Nick Punto, was 8th out of 32 MLB players with at least 500 IP in UZR/150.

I'm guessing with Gold Gloves to his Right and Left, he'll probably be above average.

Those Gold Gloves are a distant memory for Scott Rolen, and it didn't help Cabrera last year having players playing like Gold Glove Infielders next to him.

You're crazy if you believe that it would remove Dusty's desire to bat SS second.

You got me there.

Dickerson can't stay healthy enough to get on the field - and by the way you want your LF-ers to OPS .900 and hit 3/4/5 - not bat second because they are speedy and scrappy.

I agree with you there. Hoping that Votto will make the switch, otherwise I'm waiting for Heisey to take over full-time in 2011.

IF we had OPS to spare around the rest of the field, we could afford to keep an oft-injured speedy defensive guy to man LF.

The .370 OBP makes up for his lack of power in Dickerson, and Dusty's shown a willingness to put him in the #2 hole. Though, since you mentioned the oft-injuredness of Dickerson, I agree that there's a concern there, but it's one that doesn't cause a problem. You keep reminding me everyday that I said Alonso will be starting at 1B in July. That means Votto will be in LF. If Alonso's not, there's still Heisey who'll force himself into a call-up and Balentien. Left Field in 2011 is just a spot for sorting out who's going to play it in 2012, when the REDS have a "real chance" to contend, not in 2011, when their best-case scenario is a .500 record.


The reports of Janish's wizardy with the glove, are preliminary at best and exxagerated at worst.

Stats (which I don't believe in) say otherwise.

As has been stated before, Rolen's D is GG caliber.

Yeah....when he reaches the ball and his back's not hurt.

We get it, you think Janish is the best Defensive SS in the game, and Cabrera is a washed up hack.

Never stated that anywhere about Janish....about Cabrera, yes, but not about Janish. Janish is holding the fort for one year for Cozart.

Cabrera has an OPTION for 2011. Do you know what that means?
Cozart can still knock the door down and force the Reds to play him - see Bruce, Jay.

It's a much better option than having the door WIDE open and gaping, and forcing someone to join the show before they are ready.

That, I agree with. There just weren't any options out there, and Walt took the best one, hoping Cabrera pulls out some "fluke" Offensive effort (the defense ain't happenin'). I would have been happier seeing Janish play as I don't beleive there will be a .20+ point difference between their OBP from their "starts" in 2011 and justify not having Janish's Defense out there and saving the $3M (that they say they don't have to spend).

Oh, let me guess, Cozart was on track to be batting 2nd and playing SS for the Reds on July 9th with Alonso at first right?!?!? All until Cabrera came along.

No. Cozart takes over in 2012.

So, not only is Cabrera not any better than Janish, he actually is a -5.0 WAR player now!??!

Correct. He's not better now. See for yourself:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=500&type=0&season=2009&month=0






I answered your questions inside the quote in parentheses.

Jones1
02-02-2010, 06:38 AM
Heck of a debate here between Bleeds and Kingspoint. But something in my gut tells me Heisey is going to be hitting in the 2 hole by May and starting in LF 80 % of the time. Heisey has shown the speed and OBP to be a great number 2 hitter. I watched the guy play in person numerous times and he is the real deal. In fact as good as Stubbs was he was nothing to watching Heisey! My prediction is O Cab starts out in the 2 hole but Heisey plays so well and steals enough basses he moves to the 2 hole by mid May or sooner..

BLEEDS
02-02-2010, 11:25 AM
I answered your questions inside the quote in parentheses.

Got it.

I think your problem - which you acknowledge - is the defensive metrics.
You are putting WAY too much into the 09 UZR.

UZR - which you claim you don't believe in - is supposed to be used over a 3 year period, because of variances, etc.

You basically are taking a down year for Cabrera and comparing it the first 590 innings of Janish.

Otherwise, I think you are discounting the huge impact in the offense from the two - Janish is purely abysmall - and the intangibles that a proven, winning veteran can bring to the clubhouse.

We can agree to disagree on those points, however we seem to have found some middleground on the other points.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
02-02-2010, 11:37 AM
Cabrera won't OBP .335. You know that. And Janish will be better than .300 in "games he starts". You know that. (Games he doesn't start don't count as you bat differently, and take fewer pitches.).

So you willing to make the bet then?

I said Cabrera will OBP over .325 for the year.
I also say Janish won't OBP over .300 for the year.

Not in "games they start", just overall for the season.

Take it or leave it?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
02-02-2010, 02:12 PM
From Fangraphs:

Orlando to Cincinnati
by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

As the Reds’ rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabrera’s put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, that’s about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabrera’s productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. It’s hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, it’s probable that Cabrera isn’t a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, what’s more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fan’s Scouting Report numbers. It’s hard to believe that he’s the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just can’t hit. He hasn’t hit in the minors since A-ball and hasn’t put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but that’s still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabrera’s upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesn’t appear that this is the best use of the Reds’ money. On the surface, Cabrera doesn’t appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we can’t evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds don’t have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera won’t be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 07:57 PM
I had said this, but I had the years wrong:

The .370 OBP makes up for his lack of power in Dickerson, and Dusty's shown a willingness to put him in the #2 hole. Though, since you mentioned the oft-injuredness of Dickerson, I agree that there's a concern there, but it's one that doesn't cause a problem. You keep reminding me everyday that I said Alonso will be starting at 1B in July. That means Votto will be in LF. If Alonso's not, there's still Heisey who'll force himself into a call-up and Balentien. Left Field in 2011 is just a spot for sorting out who's going to play it in 2012, when the REDS have a "real chance" to contend, not in 2011, when their best-case scenario is a .500 record.

Substitute 2010 for 2011, and 2011 for 2012.

I also had the year wrong when I answered this question....I meant 2011:

Oh, let me guess, Cozart was on track to be batting 2nd and playing SS for the Reds on July 9th with Alonso at first right?!?!? All until Cabrera came along.

No. Cozart takes over in 2012.

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 08:03 PM
So you willing to make the bet then?

I said Cabrera will OBP over .325 for the year.
I also say Janish won't OBP over .300 for the year.

Not in "games they start", just overall for the season.

Take it or leave it?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I can't take the bet on Janish because his pinch-hitting and late-game substitutions will lower his OBP. (As you know, when you pinch-hit, you're supposed to be up there looking for the fastball and swinging when you get one. Walking as a pinch-hitter doesn't happens a lot less frequently because of this.) I don't think he'll get enough at-bats as a starter to make up for it. Can't see more than 150 AB's for Janish on the year now and 40-60 will be as pinch-hitter/late-inning replacement AB's.

I'm pretty confident that Cabrera's OBP will be .300-.315, so yes...I would take that bet. Small margin for error on both our parts, but Domino's supposedly has a new recipe. ;)

Kingspoint
02-02-2010, 08:12 PM
From Fangraphs:

Orlando to Cincinnati
by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

As the Redsí rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabreraís put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, thatís about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabreraís productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. Itís hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, itís probable that Cabrera isnít a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, whatís more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fanís Scouting Report numbers. Itís hard to believe that heís the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just canít hit. He hasnít hit in the minors since A-ball and hasnít put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but thatís still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabreraís upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesnít appear that this is the best use of the Redsí money. On the surface, Cabrera doesnít appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we canít evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds donít have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera wonít be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati

I hadn't read this. That was a good analysis and is basically a compilation of what you and I are both saying. What they wrote is also how I feel about it, and it seems very close to how you feel about it.

BLEEDS
02-03-2010, 11:11 AM
On this team, he's too much of an Offensive liability. If he had Gold Glove skills, then he'd be an asset, but I don't think that's where he is at right now defensively.

Anyway, I think Walt will be looking for a starter, and will find one before the season begins, or at worst, a platoon at Shortstop.

So what happened to this opinion?
Looks like Walt did exactly what you said, and now you backtrack on Janish?

Hmm....

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Red in Atl
02-03-2010, 01:29 PM
I agree with Jones1. Heisey is the wild card all along. If he makes the team, he bats #2. Dickerson is the 4th outfielder. I think this is that hangup on Gomes contract.

Although I really like BP batting 2nd and Rolen 4th, with Heisey batting 7th behind Cabrera.

ST is going to be great this year.

Red in Atl
02-03-2010, 01:31 PM
Hate this signing, guy is terrible and on top of that he's considered a cancer. This is basically throwing money away...

Could you substantiate any of this blather? The only team related thing I've read about him is how much better Minnesota became after they traded for him. That is assuming you are talking about Cabrera.

Now if your comments were about Willy T. I get it, but you do know Walt traded him, right...

Kingspoint
05-12-2010, 06:07 AM
I answered your questions inside the quote in parentheses.


I can't take the bet on Janish because his pinch-hitting and late-game substitutions will lower his OBP. (As you know, when you pinch-hit, you're supposed to be up there looking for the fastball and swinging when you get one. Walking as a pinch-hitter doesn't happens a lot less frequently because of this.) I don't think he'll get enough at-bats as a starter to make up for it. Can't see more than 150 AB's for Janish on the year now and 40-60 will be as pinch-hitter/late-inning replacement AB's.

I'm pretty confident that Cabrera's OBP will be .300-.315, so yes...I would take that bet. Small margin for error on both our parts, but Domino's supposedly has a new recipe. ;)

The season's 1/5th over...Cabrera's OBP is .303.

Kingspoint
07-12-2010, 09:27 PM
So you willing to make the bet then?

I said Cabrera will OBP over .325 for the year.
I also say Janish won't OBP over .300 for the year.

Not in "games they start", just overall for the season.

Take it or leave it?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

With the season 5/9th's over with,....

Cabrera's OBP is a robust .283.
Janish's OBP is a studly .397.

Jones1
08-06-2010, 12:06 PM
Looks like Heisey is hitting in the two hole as a predicted. This will be the second game for him in the two spot!