PDA

View Full Version : The Young Shortstops



Benihana
01-31-2010, 02:01 PM
Miguel Rojas
Markieson Gregorious
Billy Hamilton
Junior Arias
Henry Rodriguez
Humberto Valor


The Reds have several highly rated SS that are all below the legal drinking age. I was wondering if someone with more exposure to them could detail how they all shake out- Who is most likely to move off SS? Who has the best glove? The best stick? The most upside?


I know Rojas is a slick fielder, Hamilton is an athletic freak, and Gregorious and Rodriguez have had good success at the lower levels. How do Arias and Valor compare?

11larkin11
01-31-2010, 02:04 PM
I think Rojas has the best glove. I haven't had the chance to see him yet, but evidently Benzinger said he could be a plus defender in the bigs right now.

Scrap Irony
01-31-2010, 02:28 PM
The best glove, by far, is Rojas.

The best bat, at this point, looks to be Rodriguez.

But they all have such a long way to go, it's almost impossible to see who might be best as they climb up the minor league ladder.

dougdirt
01-31-2010, 02:51 PM
Defensively here is how I would rank them:

Plus Plus Defense - Miguel Rojas (described as having the best hands some scouts have ever seen)

Above Average Defense with plus potential - Billy Hamilton

Above Average Defense - Markiekson Gregorius (DD)

Those are the ones I feel comfortable commenting on.

Scouting reports on the others suggest they can play shortstop, but to what extent I am not fully comfortable saying yet.

Offensively the best current stick is Henry Rodriguez, but the best upside is Billy Hamilton. I don't think Miguel Rojas ever becomes more of what he was for most of the year, a .270/.330/.350 type of hitter. Gregorius is like Rodriguez, a guy who makes a lot of contact and has good speed. The second best current stick of the group. Arias is interesting. He showed some real good power last season in the DSL after a slow start. I want to see him do something in the states before getting too excited about the bat though.

As far as prospects go, I would rank them like this currently - Hamilton, Rojas, Gregorius, Rodriguez (all top 25), Arias, Valor (last two outside the top 40). That certainly could change quickly next season as these guys start playing more, but for now that is how I have it.

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2010, 03:50 PM
Kevin Goldstein described Humberto Valor as being similar to Miguel Rojas - very good defender but with a lot more offensive upside than Rojas.

Here is another scouts take on Valor, from Jorge Arangure's twitter:

Scout on Humberto Valor: "best position player prospect in VZ." Athletic, advanced approach at plate, hard contact line drive stroke.

http://twitter.com/jorgearangure/status/2408566595

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2010, 04:29 PM
I think Billy Hamilton has the highest upside of any shortstop in the organization. To take it a step further, I think he has the highest upside of any position player in the organization except for Yorman Rodriguez. Much like Yorman, Hamilton is a human toolshed. He's got plus-plus speed, a plus-plus arm, good range, and some raw power. He's very raw and could easily be a bust, but he's got significant upside and is an All-Star shortstop if he reaches his ceiling.

Miguel Rojas is clearly the best defender of the bunch. He possesses a plus tool on just about every facet of defense - plus arm, plus instincts, plus range, plus hands. Unfortunately, he probably has the lowest upside with the bat of the shortstops. But as Kevin Goldstein stated, his defense is so good that he can be an everyday player as long as he bats eighth.

Henry Rodriguez is becoming more interesting by the day. We already know about his bat, but now we are starting to get some positive reports on his defense. John Sickels described him as a good defender and Walt Jocketty said his defense was excellent when asked by a Reds fan at the Caravan.

I agree with what Doug said. Mariekson Gregorius reminds me somewhat of Henry Rodriguez. Good speed and contact. Gregorius provides solid tools across the board according to Goldstein.

Humberto Valor is very interesting. He's supposedly a very good defender and has an advanced approach at the plate. He's still a bit of an unknown but I am very intrigued by his tools. It sounds to me like he's got some upside.

Junior Arias is one of the most interesting prospects in the system, IMO. I exchanged some emails about Junior Arias with a few BA staffers last year and they seemed to like him. He's a good athlete with good defensive skills and the potential to play CF too. Scouts described him as having a solid line drive stroke. As Doug said, Arias showed solid power in the DSL last season with 19 extra-base hits in 208 atbats. I think there's plenty of upside here, and the fact that Keith Law has him as of one of the Reds top ten prospects means that he obviously has some tools.

It's pretty exciting having so many great athletes in the system. Hopefully the Reds can continue adding more via the draft and International signings.

mdccclxix
06-06-2010, 10:32 PM
........................BA OBP SLG OPS
A+ Miguel Rojas .217 .255 .269 .524 - 12 errors - Fld%.958
A Markieson Gregorious .270 .326 .381 .708 - 16 errors Fld% .935
A Henry Rodriguez 2B .271 .290 .430 .720 - 11 errors - Fld% .957
VSL... Humberto Valor .167 .286 .262 .548
Billy Hamilton n/a
Junior Arias n/a

~adding the "old guys"~

AA Kris Negron .239 .354 .368 .722 - 6 errors - Fld% .975
AAA Zach Cozart .239 .313 .405 .719 - 3 errors - Fld% .989

Not too high, not too low, but I really like what Cozart is doing this year above the other SS's and Negron has been quite adequate.

mdccclxix
07-06-2010, 07:36 PM
For me, Billy Hamilton is the heir apparent to the SS in Cincinnati. Watching him play in the highlights, I just don't think there is much doubt he'll make a difference within the next 5 years. Until then all these other SS's will be keeping the seat warm. That said, perhaps he could also take Phillips' spot in 5 or 6 years at 2b. It just seems funny to move him off SS so early, if that's what's happening in Billings. I really can't wait to see Hamilton play in person.

11larkin11
07-06-2010, 07:41 PM
For me, Billy Hamilton is the heir apparent to the SS in Cincinnati. Watching him play in the highlights, I just don't think there is much doubt he'll make a difference within the next 5 years. Until then all these other SS's will be keeping the seat warm. That said, perhaps he could also take Phillips' spot in 5 or 6 years at 2b. It just seems funny to move him off SS so early, if that's what's happening in Billings. I really can't wait to see Hamilton play in person.

Lohman won't be there as long and will move up the system faster.

dougdirt
07-06-2010, 08:15 PM
For me, Billy Hamilton is the heir apparent to the SS in Cincinnati. Watching him play in the highlights, I just don't think there is much doubt he'll make a difference within the next 5 years. Until then all these other SS's will be keeping the seat warm. That said, perhaps he could also take Phillips' spot in 5 or 6 years at 2b. It just seems funny to move him off SS so early, if that's what's happening in Billings. I really can't wait to see Hamilton play in person.

I think you are sleeping on Gregorius a little bit. To me, he is right there with Hamilton at this point.

mdccclxix
07-06-2010, 08:48 PM
I think you are sleeping on Gregorius a little bit. To me, he is right there with Hamilton at this point.

Wow, it's good to hear you that high on DD, who's bat has shown some consistency in the past and who has some good athleticism. I have not seen DD play at all, so it's hard for me to imagine him (or anyone) as athletic as Hamilton, but I suppose those 8 triples offer some indication of his speed.

dougdirt
07-06-2010, 08:51 PM
Wow, it's good to hear you that high on DD, who's bat has shown some consistency in the past and who has some good athleticism. I have not seen DD play at all, so it's hard for me to imagine him (or anyone) as athletic as Hamilton, but I suppose those 8 triples offer some indication of his speed.

Tools wise, he is right there with Hamilton. Lesser athleticism, but its not by a ton either. DiDi has some wheels though and a solid idea of what to do at the plate. The power has come around some this year as well. I could see him hitting 15 HR's one day.

nemesis
07-06-2010, 09:27 PM
Arias strikes me as someone who's frame could fill out and be moved to 3rd or 2nd. Showing power SLG .611 in the AZL good for 4th. Only player in the top 7 under 21. He is just so bad with the glove so far. 27 E's in 243 chances in just 40 games at SS. YIKES!

Hamilton is the most exciting player tools wise (Glove, Arm, Range, Speed) and has looked really good in Billings with the glove and the bat. Was the best fielding SS in the GCL last year at .955 and right there this year (small sample size) at .960. Talking more walks so far this year and that is a very positive development.

H-Rod I feel, will and should stay at 2B. It is his fastest path to the Majors. He fields it well, a switch hitter with developing power and a high contact rate. Seems to be able to swipe a base with 14 in 18 attemps. He has a clear coast all the way to AAA.

Gregorius glove and arm needs work but his bat and range are pretty darn good and isn't even hitting LH's yet. RH slash is .341/.431/.772. Solid for a 20 year old in the MWL.

Another SS not mentioned yet and on the same team as Valor and taking some SS time away from him is 17 year old Ronald Torreyes. Bats from the right side and also has played 2B, 3B, LF. Fielding at a .940+ clip at all SS, 2B and 3B positions. 1.000 in LF. Slight build at 5'10 150 so will probably stay at 2B or SS.

Current overall slash is .450/.620/1.070

vs LH .477/.625/1.102 - 1 K in 40 AB's
vs RH .441/.619/1.060 - 6 K in 114 AB's

7 K's in 154 AB's at 17. Good. Very.

dougdirt
07-06-2010, 09:57 PM
Arias strikes me as someone who's frame could fill out and be moved to 3rd or 2nd. Showing power SLG .611 in the AZL good for 4th. Only player in the top 7 under 21. He is just so bad with the glove so far. 27 E's in 243 chances in just 40 games at SS. YIKES!
You need to remember the quality of the fields he played on prior to this year too. Errors don't mean much for 18 year olds. Worry about their range and their arm.

nemesis
07-06-2010, 11:42 PM
You need to remember the quality of the fields he played on prior to this year too. Errors don't mean much for 18 year olds. Worry about their range and their arm.

I know. That field in Arizona is pretty good though. I'm sure the one in the DSL was just an small upgrade from a cow pasture. Lol. Do you think he could be moved over though? Him Hamilton and Valor will all be in or around A, A+ the same time.

redsof72
07-07-2010, 03:19 AM
Some interesting comments here. My two cents: Rojas is by far the best of the bunch defensively and the best all-around player at this point even though he has not hit this season. He is light years ahead of Gregorius and Rodriguez as far as consistency, fundamentals, leadership, and general understanding of the game and his responsibilities in the defense. To me, he is a Janish type player. I would take him on my team any day of the week.

The comparisons of Gregorius and Rodriguez are a bit puzzling because they are not similar players at all. Gregorius is much, much faster. Gregorius has a cannon at shortstop (much better arm than Cozart or Rojas). Gregorius is a very toolsy player but at this point, is a little shaky over the day to day grind (evidence: he had more errors at shortstop by mid June than Rojas had all season last year in the same league). Rodriguez, despite his stolen base total, is an average runner at best (not as fast, for example, as Puckett, who played his position in Dayton in 2009). Rodriguez has made major improvement defensively at second base over the course of this season. Still, he is only what I would term adequate for a low-A second baseman. He does not have the speed to play the outfield. Some scouts feel he is a better fit at third. My biggest problem with him this season is that he struggles with the mental part of the game and struggles to maintain focus for the full nine innings, resulting in costly blunders (although that has gotten better). He is a solid #3 hitter in what is becoming a good Dayton lineup and could possibly end up leading the league in RBI. He has much more pop than Gregorius as a hitter. He is a switch hitter but struggles from the right side of the plate.

fearofpopvol1
07-07-2010, 03:49 AM
Some interesting comments here. My two cents: Rojas is by far the best of the bunch defensively and the best all-around player at this point even though he has not hit this season. He is light years ahead of Gregorius and Rodriguez as far as consistency, fundamentals, leadership, and general understanding of the game and his responsibilities in the defense. To me, he is a Janish type player. I would take him on my team any day of the week.

The comparisons of Gregorius and Rodriguez are a bit puzzling because they are not similar players at all. Gregorius is much, much faster. Gregorius has a cannon at shortstop (much better arm than Cozart or Rojas). Gregorius is a very toolsy player but at this point, is a little shaky over the day to day grind (evidence: he had more errors at shortstop by mid June than Rojas had all season last year in the same league). Rodriguez, despite his stolen base total, is an average runner at best (not as fast, for example, as Puckett, who played his position in Dayton in 2009). Rodriguez has made major improvement defensively at second base over the course of this season. Still, he is only what I would term adequate for a low-A second baseman. He does not have the speed to play the outfield. Some scouts feel he is a better fit at third. My biggest problem with him this season is that he struggles with the mental part of the game and struggles to maintain focus for the full nine innings, resulting in costly blunders (although that has gotten better). He is a solid #3 hitter in what is becoming a good Dayton lineup and could possibly end up leading the league in RBI. He has much more pop than Gregorius as a hitter. He is a switch hitter but struggles from the right side of the plate.

Good to know. What about Hamilton though? He is younger and has less experience than the others so there is less to go off of...but the kid is just a freak athlete. And if he sharpens that rawness and hits...the kid could be a monster.

Benihana
07-07-2010, 11:43 AM
Here is how I see it playing out next year:

CAROLINA
2B Puckett/Greene (with the other playing LF)
SS Rojas

LYNCHBURG
2B Lohman
SS Gregorious
3B H.Rodriguez

DAYTON
2B Arias
SS Hamilton

Valor will be playing SS in the AZL

nemesis
07-07-2010, 01:27 PM
Here is how I see it playing out next year:

CAROLINA
2B Puckett/Greene (with the other playing LF)
SS Rojas

LYNCHBURG
2B Lohman
SS Gregorious
3B H.Rodriguez

DAYTON
2B Arias
SS Hamilton

Valor will be playing SS in the AZL

Probably spot on...

redsof72
07-07-2010, 07:37 PM
I have not seen Hamilton. One of the great things about baseball is that for each person you talk to, you get a different opinion on the same subject and different scouts see him differently. Some say he will end up being an Otis Nixon type outfielder. Some say he has looked much better at second than at short. Keep this in mind: He still has a long way to go. His work ethic will have as much to say about how he ends up as his talent.

redsof72
07-07-2010, 07:38 PM
Most people who like Arias say he will end up at third base.

lollipopcurve
07-07-2010, 07:46 PM
His work ethic will have as much to say about how he ends up as his talent.

This an important point that is often overlooked. I would add that a player's ability to learn -- often referred to as "making adjustments" -- is also key.

Good stuff, as always, 72. I like what you say about Rojas -- I hope he can bounce back offensively after the injury.