PDA

View Full Version : Odds are: Juan Francisco



Mario-Rijo
02-16-2010, 06:22 AM
Is he a future major leaguer who will stick for any significant length of time after teams get a book on him?

Always endless debate about a handful of prospects so I thought I'd run a few polls to allow folks to express their opinion, make a statement of fact, basically make a prediction on their future and whatever else they want to add. I really hope those who are passionate about these arguments are willing to participate and will learn something from this exercise in the future, I know I will.

redsmetz
02-16-2010, 11:12 AM
I chose "no clue" because it felt like the most honest answer. It's hard to say whether he'll make the adjustments necessary to succeed on the ML level, which is generally a true enough statement for the vast majority of prospects, isn't it?

RedsManRick
02-16-2010, 11:34 AM
Until I see otherwise, I'm going to lean on the best comps I can think of: Wily Mo Pena and Marcus Thames. I'm sure he'll get some time in the majors, but I'd be surprised if he ever turns in to an every day player, let alone an all-star caliber guy.

bucksfan2
02-16-2010, 11:47 AM
Until I see otherwise, I'm going to lean on the best comps I can think of: Wily Mo Pena and Marcus Thames. I'm sure he'll get some time in the majors, but I'd be surprised if he ever turns in to an every day player, let alone an all-star caliber guy.

Wily Mo Pena's problems were a direct result of not having enough time to develop. He was rushed to the Majors due to the contract he signed, and teams will unwilling to send him to AAA because he was out of options. I don't see that issue with Francisco. He will be given more time to develop. But I do see the comp in that the Reds will hold onto Francisco, probably a little too long if he ends up being a bust.

mace
02-16-2010, 12:28 PM
The reservations of Doug, camis and Mario-Rijo, etc., are founded upon Francisco's unsightly K:BB ratio, and I respect the research that goes into that evaluation. However, I choose, perhaps optimistically, to favor the curve by which JF has improved at virtually every level along the way, distinguishing himself on a consistent basis. Plus, I'm partial to players who have a knack for driving in runs (which, unlike others, I don't believe is entirely accidental). In this way, I think JF's lack of walks works somewhat in his favor, and will continue to as long as he maintains a reasonably high batting average. Power plus batting average equals a high rate of RBIs when employed in the middle of the lineup. My expectations for JF will change once he reaches a level he can't wreak havoc in; and there's only one left. Of course, it's a rather significant one . . .

dougdirt
02-16-2010, 01:29 PM
I went with possible, but not very likely. I have seen glimpses that tell me it can happen and that he 'gets it' in terms of taking bad pitches. Of course I have seen him a week later swing at 8 of the 10 pitches he saw that day too. Given his history, its just not likely, but there is a chance based on some glimpses that I have seen with him.

TRF
02-16-2010, 02:28 PM
I chose possible and I like his chances. He's young enough to continue developing, he's had a boat load of praise from outside the organization, boosting his confidence. If he gets OB drilled into his head and LEARNS what he can't hit, he could be a beast.

bucksfan2
02-16-2010, 02:33 PM
I went with possible, but not very likely. I have seen glimpses that tell me it can happen and that he 'gets it' in terms of taking bad pitches. Of course I have seen him a week later swing at 8 of the 10 pitches he saw that day too. Given his history, its just not likely, but there is a chance based on some glimpses that I have seen with him.

Does he remind you of Francour at all? Guy never found a pitch he didn't like to swing at.

Scrap Irony
02-16-2010, 02:35 PM
At this point, if he doesn't improve at all from last season, he's Fernando Tatis or Wily Mo Pena. That's a five to ten year career, simply because of the power in his bat.

If he continues to improve, he could be anything from a typical major league starter to a pinch hitter/ utility corner guy (all four corner positions, a really valuable guy to have on your bench) to a perennial All Star.

Too soon to tell, really. Let him baste in AAA for 500-1000 ABs and then let's see.

Screwball
02-16-2010, 02:57 PM
Let him baste in AAA for 500-1000 ABs and then let's see.

That's probably the right plan, but you know he's gonna be called up to the Big Leagues at some point this season.

Mario-Rijo
02-16-2010, 03:10 PM
Does he remind you of Francour at all? Guy never found a pitch he didn't like to swing at.

That is the guy who I think he compares quite favorably to if he reaches his peak. And Francouer as recently as what '08 or '09 was sent back to the minors because he struggled greatly once teams figured out they didn't have to throw him anything remotely driveable to get him out consistently. And it should be noted Francouer is a far superior defender.

AtomicDumpling
02-16-2010, 04:13 PM
I think he will be a major leaguer but not a star player. He will be a guy that bounces around a lot. He will be very inconsistent, but will show just enough "wow moments" and flashes of greatness or have the occasional hot streak that will tempt teams to keep giving him chances. Kind of like a Russell Branyan. He will be a 5th outfielder, pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter for a few years and will make a very nice living.

KoryMac5
02-16-2010, 04:36 PM
I went with possible because thats the way I feel about most of our higher prospects. I always feel there is a possibility that they could be really good or not pan out. I give Cisco a 50/50 shot of making it if he gets good coaching.

fearofpopvol1
02-16-2010, 04:48 PM
Possible but not very likely

bowles8
02-16-2010, 05:37 PM
I was not impressed at all when I saw him play this past season with Carolina....He seemed slow, below average fielder, but a decent stick....Wasn't very impressed with his work ethic either pre-game or during the game.....

Kc61
02-16-2010, 08:21 PM
JF is a left handed hitter. This gives him a huge advantage over a guy like WMP.

I am very confident that JF will do serious damage against RHP. That's most games.

Whether he will hit lefties is unclear. But that affects far fewer games.

JF will eventually be ok in LF, if not third base, not worried about his defense. If necessary, he can be a first baseman or a DH in the American League.

The big issue I see is whether JF will be an all around hitter, against all types of pitching, or whether he will be a platoon hitter against RHP. Same is true for a guy like Alonso who reputedly is much better against RHP than against left handers.

Degenerate39
02-16-2010, 09:11 PM
I don't think he'll do anything when he gets to the majors

Betterread
02-16-2010, 11:47 PM
I don't think he'll do anything when he gets to the majors

He's already done a couple of things.
He's hit a HR for his first ML hit, had three pinch hits and turned two double plays. And these things contributed to a number of Reds wins.

kfm
02-17-2010, 12:44 AM
Isn't the question whether he will be a pro? Seems pretty simple that the majors are full of guys who have far less talent, less potential and were less productive in the minors. I could see all the speculation if the question was all star or bust but it seems very likely that he will be a major league player and the only issue is how good of a major leaguer will he be.

dougdirt
02-17-2010, 12:57 AM
Isn't the question whether he will be a pro? Seems pretty simple that the majors are full of guys who have far less talent, less potential and were less productive in the minors. I could see all the speculation if the question was all star or bust but it seems very likely that he will be a major league player and the only issue is how good of a major leaguer will he be.

Or how bad. I think there is a lot higher chance that he is never a 2 win player than he is able to put up a single 4 win season.