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View Full Version : Which Reds prospects will take the biggest leap forward in 2010?



OnBaseMachine
02-18-2010, 09:37 AM
Using our Redszone top 40, which Reds prospects do you see taking the biggest leap forward in 2010?

For the pitchers, I'll go with Juan Carlos Sulbaran. We ranked him as our #22 prospect in the Redszone top 40, but I could see him moving into at least the 10-12 range next season, and maybe even higher than that. He struggled some in 2009 but I still love his potential. Despite his struggles, he still struckout 100 batters in 92.2 innings for a strong 9.7 K/9. That tells me his stuff is there, he just needs to locate it better (5.0 BB/9). He just turned 20 in November, so he still has plenty of time to put things together. I think he'll probably begin the season in Dayton and earn a promotion to Lynchburg by midseason.

As for the hitters, I had to think about this one a little harder. Juan Duran crossed my mind, but we ranked him at #16, and while I expect him to play a lot better this season, I don't see him jumping no higher than around 8-12. I considered all of the young shortstops, but Henry Rodriguez and Junior Arias both stuck out the most. We ranked Rodriguez #34 and Arias #37 and based on their tools, if they hit well this year like expected then both will probably jump into the top 20 next offseason. A strong case could be made for Gregorius and Valor too.

So who do you see making a big jump?

11larkin11
02-18-2010, 11:13 AM
I don't see him jumping no higher than around 8-12.

Yes, I am a an idiot :)

http://mybroadband.co.za/photos/data/500/grammar-nazi2.jpg

Mario-Rijo
02-18-2010, 01:18 PM
Corcino and Arias make a lot of sense.

dougdirt
02-18-2010, 01:33 PM
I have a few hitters in mind.
Devin Mesoraco - The defense took huge steps forward last season. Offensively he gets out of the FSL and his peripherals were pretty good last season. .800+ OPS and 35% of base stealers thrown out in 2010.
Billy Hamilton - While he is rated highly because of his tools and not so much because of his production, I think with a full year to have worked on switch hitting that offensively he begins to show some promise in 2010.
Marc Fluery - Had a bit of Jay Bruce syndrome in Billings - 10% walk rate, 18% strikeout rate, .220 BABIP. Defensively it would seem he has a ways to go still, but I think offensively he will do MUCH better than he did last season.

Pitching wise I will go with JC Sulbaran like OBM did. Despite below average to average velocity most of the season in Dayton, he posted a great strikeout rate. If his velocity returns to average to above average he could really put together a strong season, especially if he can be a little more consistent with the strikezone.

OnBaseMachine
02-18-2010, 01:43 PM
Corcino and Arias make a lot of sense.

Love the Corcino pick. I forgot to include him in my post, but I could see him jumping into the 20-30 range next season. I really like what I've read on him.

GOYA
02-18-2010, 02:25 PM
Based on our rankings, I'll say Del Rosario and HenRod.

mace
02-18-2010, 03:22 PM
From the Top 40, as prescribed:

Chris Heisey (sounds weird, given his last year, but he's still unvalidated)
Neftali Soto
Devin Mesoraco
Jeremy Horst

From the rest, as not prescribed:

Alex Buchholz
Kevin Coddington
Curtis Partch
Joe Krebs
Jordan Hotchkiss
Alexis Oliveras
Tucker Barnhart

First list: guesswork
Second list: also guesswork

Superdude
02-18-2010, 07:02 PM
Pitching wise I will go with JC Sulbaran like OBM did. Despite below average to average velocity most of the season in Dayton, he posted a great strikeout rate. If his velocity returns to average to above average he could really put together a strong season, especially if he can be a little more consistent with the strikezone.

What was his velocity? Was his secondary stuff that good that he could strike out over a batter an inning with a below average fastball?

dougdirt
02-18-2010, 07:26 PM
What was his velocity? Was his secondary stuff that good that he could strike out over a batter an inning with a below average fastball?

I saw him a few times top out at 88 MPH in games, throwing 86-88 all game. For a righty, thats below average. I saw some games where he was 87-90 too. When he is on, his secondary stuff can handcuff hitters, especially ones in Low A.

Superdude
02-18-2010, 07:34 PM
that's not very good. Any reason for the drop in velocity or is this another Travis Wood situation?

dougdirt
02-18-2010, 07:43 PM
that's not very good. Any reason for the drop in velocity or is this another Travis Wood situation?

He was healthy all year outside of the blister problems. Its just one of those things, not every guy with good velocity in HS can carry that forward while throwing 100+ innings in a season. Some guys get it back, some don't. We are going to have to wait and see with him.

nemesis
02-18-2010, 07:44 PM
I say Silva as a hitter and Hildenbrandt as the ace pitcher in Dayton.

mth123
02-18-2010, 08:51 PM
Hitters:

Danny Dorn #18, Josh Fellhauer #21 and Henry Rodriguez #34

Pitchers:

Jordan Smith #24, Matt Fairel #25 and Jeremy Horst #38

Not ranked guys to watch:

Alex Oliveras OF and Mark Pawelek LHP

OnBaseMachine
02-18-2010, 10:44 PM
Another non-ranked guy I forgot to mention besides Daniel Corcino is Ismael Guillon, the young lefty (just turned 18) from Venezuela. He had Tommy John surgery last year and missed all of 2009, but according to Keith Law he impressed scouts in Instructional League with a 90-93 mph fastball and a good changeup. He'll probably pitch in the GCL this season.

corkedbat
02-19-2010, 12:11 AM
I can see (and agree with) all that have been mentioned. Just to be different, I'll say #29 Kyle Lotzkar. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I'd love to see the kid come back strong.

TRF
02-19-2010, 09:20 AM
Chris Valaika. Stupid injury last year cost him status as a prospect, but he's hit at every level when healthy. I have doubts he can stick at SS, but he could be a Jeff Kent type 2B offensively.

PhillipsHead
02-19-2010, 12:14 PM
The answer is Yonder Alonso. Come mid season, his bat will be more than Major League ready.

nemesis
02-19-2010, 12:29 PM
Chris Valaika. Stupid injury last year cost him status as a prospect, but he's hit at every level when healthy. I have doubts he can stick at SS, but he could be a Jeff Kent type 2B offensively.

I was high on Valaika before. But his OBP is terrible. It is strictly BA driven. Unlike Francisco he does not have plus plus power or even plus power to raise his OPS... He will have to sustain a high BABIP to be sucessful in the ML.

Before I get the argument... His Career OBP is only.39 pts higher than his BA...

Francisco's is .30 a difference of .09. While his slugging is .42 lower...

Valakia could become a much better INF bench option if get him more time at 2B where he probably will be at AAA and some time at 3B... I am sure he plays SS better than Keppinger and Hariston combined already.

1B Alonso
2B Phillips
3B Rolen
SS Cozart
LF Votto
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce
C Hernandez

OF Heisey
OF Dickerson
IF Valakia
UT Frazier
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Chapman
SP Bailey
SP Wood

RP Fisher
RP Herrera
RP Del Rosario
RP Bray
RP Thurman
SU Arrenaddo
CL Massett

Your 2011 Reds

Mario-Rijo
02-19-2010, 01:56 PM
The answer is Yonder Alonso. Come mid season, his bat will be more than Major League ready.

Unless I misread the 1st post I'm not sure how Alonso could pull this feat off. He can't jump any higher than 1 spot and odds are many will jump much further than that. Which is why I chose Corcino and Arias 2 guys who could both jump 20 spots in the rankings from now 'til then.

11larkin11
02-19-2010, 02:13 PM
I was high on Valaika before. But his OBP is terrible. It is strictly BA driven. Unlike Francisco he does not have plus plus power or even plus power to raise his OPS... He will have to sustain a high BABIP to be sucessful in the ML.

Before I get the argument... His Career OBP is only.39 pts higher than his BA...

Francisco's is .30 a difference of .09. While his slugging is .42 lower...

Valakia could become a much better INF bench option if get him more time at 2B where he probably will be at AAA and some time at 3B... I am sure he plays SS better than Keppinger and Hariston combined already.

1B Alonso
2B Phillips
3B Rolen
SS Cozart
LF Votto
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce
C Hernandez

OF Heisey
OF Dickerson
IF Valakia
UT Frazier
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Volquez
SP Chapman
SP Bailey
SP Wood

RP Fisher
RP Herrera
RP Del Rosario
RP Bray
RP Thurman
SU Arrenaddo
CL Massett

Your 2011 Reds

Since when is a BA-driven OBP bad? Last time I checked, a hit> a walk. Sure, walks never struggle, but I definitely prefer a (random numbers) .310 BA/.350 OBP guy to a .260BA/.350OBP guy

GOYA
02-19-2010, 03:48 PM
Chris Valaika. Stupid injury last year cost him status as a prospect, but he's hit at every level when healthy. I have doubts he can stick at SS, but he could be a Jeff Kent type 2B offensively.

Toward the end of last season, I began to have doubts about Valaika at SS too. He seemed to have a lot of trouble getting the ball to 1B unless he was set when he fielded the ball.

lollipopcurve
02-19-2010, 03:52 PM
Toward the end of last season, I began to have doubts about Valaika at SS too. He seemed to have a lot of trouble getting the ball to 1B unless he was set when he fielded the ball.

I have to say, I was surprised at how mechanical Valaika was in throwing the ball to 1st. He played 2nd the game I saw, and he seemed to have some kind of hitch between taking the ball from his glove and throwing it. Definitely did not look smooth or quick to me.

corkedbat
02-19-2010, 03:59 PM
I really hope that Alonso really is an impact bat and good enough to move Joey off 1B, but I'd at least like see him put together a 25HR/90RBBI-type season (with a buttload of doubles) in Louisbille to be sure he's the Real Deal and not just "el Alcalde de la Parte Dos"

nemesis
02-19-2010, 05:01 PM
Since when is a BA-driven OBP bad? Last time I checked, a hit> a walk. Sure, walks never struggle, but I definitely prefer a (random numbers) .310 BA/.350 OBP guy to a .260BA/.350OBP guy

Because if Valaika hit .260 history suggests his OBP would be .290. Out comes the RZ pitchforks... Plus Valaika isn't a contact hitter he strikes out in the 16 to 20% range while his BB % is closer to 5 to 7% He needs to double that. Then if he hits .260 at least his OBP would be closer to a bench player okish .320 ~ .330.

dougdirt
02-19-2010, 05:49 PM
Because if Valaika hit .260 history suggests his OBP would be .290. Out comes the RZ pitchforks... Plus Valaika isn't a contact hitter he strikes out in the 16 to 20% range while his BB % is closer to 5 to 7% He needs to double that. Then if he hits .260 at least his OBP would be closer to a bench player okish .320 ~ .330.

Doubling his walk rate would be a bit much. 14% walk rates are elite. If he can get to the 8% range he wouldn't likely hurt you if he hit .260.

Scrap Irony
02-19-2010, 05:52 PM
I like the Valaika pick. Bucholtz, too, may re-emerge as a top prospect.

But my picks are all pitchers:
-- Tyler Cline-- Young, but plus stuff. He may dominate two levels this year. (Or it may be a year early on him.)

-- Lotzkar and Hidenbrandt-- Both have great stuff and questions aboot (Canadian spelling, there, eh?) mechanics. One of them breaks out this year as a possible TOR arm.

TRF
02-19-2010, 05:54 PM
Because if Valaika hit .260 history suggests his OBP would be .290. Out comes the RZ pitchforks... Plus Valaika isn't a contact hitter he strikes out in the 16 to 20% range while his BB % is closer to 5 to 7% He needs to double that. Then if he hits .260 at least his OBP would be closer to a bench player okish .320 ~ .330.

I don't see him as a .260 hitter. with few exceptions, once he adjusts to a level, he's always been a .300 hitter with some power. I think he spends the whole year at AAA with a possible promotion come September. .315 .360 .450.

And if he gets a real handle on playing 2B, he'll make it tough not to dangle BP.

Red Daddy
02-19-2010, 06:02 PM
I'm gonna go on record and say that Dave Sappelt will have a very good, breakout year this year. He doesn't get any press and only Alonso had a higher batting average in the dreaded Florida league. This league swallowed up Mesoraco and Soto last year, but not Sappelt! I predict he mashes the ball this year!!!

My favorite low end prospects are Del Rosario, Serrano, Jacob Johnson, Henry Rodriguez, Buchholz, Horst, Fellhauer, and Cline. I think all of these guys have the ability to help their prospect status this year.

I predict that Valaika is a monster this year. The guy can hit! He was hurt last year (partly his own doing). I think he's on a mission.

corkedbat
02-19-2010, 06:21 PM
Kinda OT, but I think I recall the Nats returned Terrell Young. Is he still in the Reds system?

mdccclxix
02-19-2010, 06:30 PM
Reports of our "overweight" catching prospect have turned out to be completely false:

http://i663.photobucket.com/albums/uu351/mdccclxix/th_devin.jpg

Mesoraco is doing just fine. Hat tip to CNATI, of course.

dougdirt
02-19-2010, 06:51 PM
Reports of our "overweight" catching prospect have turned out to be completely false:

http://i663.photobucket.com/albums/uu351/mdccclxix/th_devin.jpg

Mesoraco is doing just fine. Hat tip to CNATI, of course.

They were debunked last year too. And the year before when the comment was actually made.

camisadelgolf
02-19-2010, 09:32 PM
Kinda OT, but I think I recall the Nats returned Terrell Young. Is he still in the Reds system?
Yes. He's expected to be in AA or AAA.

mdccclxix
02-20-2010, 03:02 PM
They were debunked last year too. And the year before when the comment was actually made.


heck, he could USE a few lbs. :)

mace
02-25-2010, 12:25 PM
After reading the outfield breakdown for the Dragons, I'd like to add a name: Andrew Means. As I recall, redsof72 had good things to say about his contribution last year, as well.

HokieRed
02-25-2010, 07:47 PM
Duran and Hildenbrandt, if he's healthy.

membengal
02-26-2010, 03:10 PM
Have not read the thread, but my wild guesses:

Y. Rodriguez and J. Duran, based on their third year with the team, in the states, and in the system.

Wild card wild guess: D. Mesaraco.

membengal
02-26-2010, 03:18 PM
And while I'm here, and don't know what other thread to put it in, I love what the club has done of late to quietly stockpile athletic types at shortstop. Nice depth developing there, and if they can get a few of them to pan out as prospects, delightful trading chips a few years down the road.

corkedbat
02-27-2010, 03:15 PM
Have not read the thread, but my wild guesses:

Y. Rodriguez and J. Duran, based on their third year with the team, in the states, and in the system.

Wild card wild guess: D. Mesaraco.

I believe it's still just their 2nd year, isn't it?

membengal
02-27-2010, 04:34 PM
Thought they got some time with the DSL Reds year one. So third year in the organization, and second for the rest of it.