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View Full Version : Why The Reds Should Fire Mark Berry (Baseball Proepectus Article)



Chris Sabowned
02-18-2010, 10:11 PM
Here's a very interesting article from Baseball Prospectus writer Russell Carleton. Basically the article breaks down different situations and whether or not 3rd base coaches should send runner home.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/insider/news/story?id=4920847&addata=2009_insdr_mod_mlb_xxx_xxx&action=
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If Perlozzo yells "Stay," the Phillies will have a runner on third with one out. In 2009, whenever a team was in this situation in an inning, it scored 0.965 of a run on average. That's the equivalent of hanging on to your dollar bill. If Perlozzo yells "Go," one of two things will happen: Rollins will be safe or out. If he's safe, the Phillies get that run and have the bases empty with one out -- which in 2009 produced 0.279 runs on average for a total of 1.279 runs in the two situations. If Rollins is out, there will be no one on base with two outs, which had an average run expectancy of 0.106 runs.

There's a run and an out at stake, both valuable in baseball. How can you tell whether it's a good bet?

Without going into all the algebra, it says Perlozzo needs to be 73.2 percent sure that Rollins will make it before he sends him. So, if third-base coaches leaguewide are playing the game correctly, we should see that about 73 percent of the runners in this situation wind up scoring.

In 2009, there were 97 instances when this sort of situation occurred: no outs, runner on third, fly ball to the outfield. When the runner tried for home, he was safe 96.2 percent of the time (75-for-78). In fact, Perlozzo himself was perfect in 2009: 100 percent of the runners he sent in this situation (and in all sacrifice fly situations) reached home safely.
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He goes on to say that if 3rd base coaches would just send the runner every time the ball is caught by an outfielder then statistically teams would score more runs.

TC81190
02-18-2010, 10:26 PM
Sounds like run manufacturing down to the finest detail.

Redsfan320
02-19-2010, 08:07 AM
Berry should definitely be fired. Never knows when to send 'em.

320

Moosie52
02-19-2010, 09:58 AM
Doesn't know when to send them, and a lot of runners ignore him, too. The Reds should try someone else at 3rd.

Fullboat
02-19-2010, 10:41 AM
Yeah teams might score more runs but it also ups the ante on injuries.

Hey Meat
02-19-2010, 10:58 AM
I'll have to admit he has had quite a few gaffes the last couple years. I agree, fire him.

roby
02-19-2010, 11:35 AM
I'll have to admit he has had quite a few gaffes the last couple years. I agree, fire him.

Sam Perlozzo was brutal when he coached third base for the Reds too. I think he got fired mid-season. The best 3rd base coach for the Reds in my memory was Dave Bristol. It seemed like he never made a mistake.

bounty37h
02-19-2010, 11:35 AM
I was 3'rd base coach one game when injured, sent a runner home on close play from outfield, but there were 2 outs and pitcher up next. He was out (should have been safe if he ran hard), and people gave me hell for sending him.

fugowitribe
02-19-2010, 11:45 AM
The way I see it, this is a performance based league, and he hasn't performed. If he can't do his job well enough, you gotta cut him loose. Too much hard work and effort goes into winning a ballgame by players and other coaches for a guy who is otherwise of no help to the franchise to be allowed to sit out and make mistake afer mistake in the one situation where he actually affects the game.