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Redsfan320
02-21-2010, 10:39 AM
in the thick of Arroyo and Harang trade rumors, Homer's finally putting it together, Volquez's surgery, and all the 5th starter talk... is Johnny Cueto.

Last year he had an 11-11 record, 4.41 ERA, 132 K, and a 1.36 WHIP in 171.1 IP, and 30 G. He's probably most remembered for his 10 runs-in less than 1 IP performance in Philly.

Not great numbers, but he's got some good stuff, and could be a really good pitcher with a little improvement.

So... what do we all think about Cueto?

320

Mr Larkin
02-21-2010, 11:26 AM
Has the stuff. He should be a quality starter for the near future and hopefully the distant future.

Vottomatic
02-21-2010, 11:54 AM
Well, he doesn't have the World Baseball Classic to add innings to his arm this year, so hopefully the rest and coming in fresh will help him. He's got 2 years under his belt. He should be coming into his own. Not to mention his stats were pretty good for a first and second year player.

nemesis
02-21-2010, 12:02 PM
I think this is the year he starts to put things together. IMO...

He has 2 full years at the ML level. Arbitration is only a year away and he could command sizable dollars if he puts together a 14-7 200 Inn 180K 3.50 ERA type season at 24. I don't think it is lost on him,

By the beginning of next season with Harang and Arroyo gone and Volquez back to 100% we could have a very deep and powerful rotation of:

Cueto 94 to 98
Bailey 92 to 98
Chapman 95 to 100
Volquez 91 to 96
Wood 86 to 91 with the best change in the organization

With Leake and Klinker both knocking on the door....

Not to mention surprises that'll arise out of the system this year.

Kingspoint
02-22-2010, 04:58 AM
So... what do we all think about Cueto?



His .780 OBP against was a putrid number. He stunk last year despite a respectable ERA for his age. He made a lot of stupid pitches. He gave players too many "sweet" pitches to knock around, and knock them around they did.

He's got a lot of work to do on the "mental" side of the game. But, that's to be expected from someone as young as he is with the amount of experience he's had. He's exactly where he's supposed to be....on track towards a very good career. But, if he were to make a lot of growth in any one year, this is the year he's most likely to do it based on age and time in the Majors.

I could see him dropping 50 points off of that OPS against, and if he does that, he'll be a respectable pitcher in 2010. The ERA will probably drop to between 3.55-3.75, and that's very good for a 3rd year pitcher. He'll probably last more innings, increase his season total from 171 to 201, and put less pressure on the bullpen, so that they stay fresher and can peform better themselves. Lowering that OPS against will make everyone better.

He'll have Rolen at 3rd and Stubbs at CF for a full season....huge improvements defensively over EE and Taveras. He'll lose out on having Cabrera at SS, as he had Janish for half a season last year. Janish is likely to only get a 1/6th of a season of starts. Hernandez should be able to play more Catcher, and I have a feeling that Hernandez might handle the pitchers better than Hanigan, even though Hanigan has the great arm.

Cueto dropped his OPS against 23 points from the year before, so a 50-point drop would be dramatic. I think he's got it in him, though. We have a new pitching Coach, don't we? That could be the difference for him in 2010.

That drop of OPS-Against of 50 points down to the .720 level, will drop him out of the bottom 20% of starters in the NL who are allowed to continue to start all season to the middle 20% of starter who are allowed to continue to start all season. (Only 6 NL Starters had a worse OPS-Against last year and were allowed to continue to start games all season. 41 NL pitchers had lower OPS-Against numbers. If he can get to about .720 Against, he'll be middle of the pack, from 24th to 27th. The players who finished 24th through 27th last season, for comparison, were Jonathan Sanchez, Roy Oswalt, Barry Zito, and Ryan Dempster.)

How many wins he gets is out of his control. That's luck from one year to the next depending on what kind of run support you get, and defense you get behind you, and schedule, and way too many variables. But, he should get a chance on more than 22 decisions because he'll be lasting deeper into games. Look at him being involved in 26 decisions in 2010.

He also didn't pitch too many innings any of the last 3 years, so he should be healthy. Between him and Bailey, we should have two very healthy, very good young pitchers, both giving us 200 innings and ERA's around 3.60.

BLEEDS
02-22-2010, 01:26 PM
Between him and Bailey, we should have two very healthy, very good young pitchers, both giving us 200 innings and ERA's around 3.60.

Nothing like unrealistic expecations, again.

Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).

I'd be happy with GOALS of 1.3 WHIPs and 4.25 ERA's.
Give them some goals they might even be able to break, not make them unreasonable high-end expectations.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bounty37h
02-22-2010, 03:30 PM
I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.

Kingspoint
02-22-2010, 11:23 PM
Nothing like unrealistic expecations, again.

Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).

I'd be happy with GOALS of 1.3 WHIPs and 4.25 ERA's.
Give them some goals they might even be able to break, not make them unreasonable high-end expectations.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I did think of that, and I thought really hard that a 3.60 ERA was way too much to expect from Bailey. But, after thinking hard about it, I'm still convinced that he's reached another level and won't regress. A 3.60 ERA is a 4.00 ERA one half and a 3.20 ERA the other half. I think he's capable of having a consistent campaign.

But, like you said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Homer does get closer to 4.00 than 3.60, and like you, I'd be happy with 1.3 WHIPS from both of them. In fact, that would be very good.

Kingspoint
02-22-2010, 11:24 PM
Why don't you see if these guys can get to the lower 4's and MAYBE break down under 4.00 before you start asking them to be better than Aaron Harang, circa 2005-2007 (where Harang NEVER touched 3.60 ERA despite two years of 1.27 WIP and one of 1.14).



Yes, but Harang also had OPS'-Against that these two players can hope to achieve in 2011. If either of them reach the .690 OPS against that Harang had about 3 years ago, then that will be something to celebrate. Actually, I do expect one or both of them to reach it in 2011 or 2012.

Kingspoint
02-22-2010, 11:29 PM
I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.

He's just wasn't seasoned. He needed experience. Same with Bailey the last 3 years.

Both of them are coming into their own right at the same time. We should get very good years from both of them.

gilpdawg
02-23-2010, 02:47 AM
I dont know for sure, obviously, but he seemed to go down hill somewhat when he didnt get an All Star nod after a good start, seemed like he was offended and kind of shut down at that point. Again, that was just my thought last year from a distance, and only my opinion, nothing to show for it.

I thought he had a little dead arm period around that time last year. Happens.

bounty37h
02-23-2010, 09:53 AM
^I know, def saw hthe dead arm, but his body language, to me, showed disapointment and seemed p'ed he didn't get the recognition, not just arm, but seemed more mental to me.