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Kc61
02-21-2010, 04:26 PM
Based on today's reports I'm assuming Gomes will be a Red. If not, another right handed hitter will come on board at some point this spring.

IMO Bruce, Stubbs, Dickerson, and Gomes will be on the team.

The fifth outfielder will be Balentien, Nix, or Heisey.

Fifth outfielder will be Balentien if the Reds go for power potential. He's out of options.

Fifth outfielder will be Nix if Reds go for lefty/righty balance. You need a lefty hitter off the bench and Nix fits that bill.

Fifth outfielder will be Heisey if he has a great spring and Reds conclude he needs to be on the team.

I think Heisey is a long shot and the Reds will decide between Balentien and Nix. I think Nix fits the need more than Balentein. Nix plays all outfield positions and provides the lefty bat. On the other hand, Balentien has upside and is out of options which is an important factor in his favor.

If Gomes doesn't sign, then Nix and Balentien would both likely make it.

Ron Madden
02-21-2010, 04:35 PM
I'm looking forward to the battle for LF as well as the competition for 4th and 5th OF spots.

fearofpopvol1
02-21-2010, 04:46 PM
Are you ruling out Francisco? For the record, I think he needs more time in AAA myself, but given how highly many at RZ think of 'cisco, just curious.

Ron Madden
02-21-2010, 04:51 PM
I'd like to see Dickerson and Stubbs fight for the starting job in CF.

I like Dickerson, seems like he's being over-looked by Reds management and Fans.

Scrap Irony
02-21-2010, 04:52 PM
I don't know of any poster who thinks it would be a good idea to have Francisco start in the majors. Personally, I'd like to see him get 500 or so ABs in AAA and hit like last season, only with more patience and less K's.

Ron Madden
02-21-2010, 04:54 PM
Are you ruling out Francisco? For the record, I think he needs more time in AAA myself,

So do I.

Will M
02-21-2010, 05:29 PM
1. I've brought this up before but lets look at what Nix brings.

RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
LF Platoon of Dickerson & Gomes (or Balentien)

who is the main LH pinch hitter? Miles? Sutton? Yikes! Its gotta be Nix.
he could also play LF vs RHP if Dickerson is banged up.
he could also play LF vs RHP if Stubbs struggles & Dickerson plays some CF vs LHP.
is he better than Balentien or Gomes? No. But he hits left handed!

2. it has been brought up that Balentien hit RHP better than LHP last year. Not sure what this means. if this trend continues it would be an odditty.

3. if Gomes comes on board then we have some competition this spring. not just between the kids (who i suspect all start in AAA) but for the bats in LF vs RHP as well as the 5th outfielder spot.

4. could Gomes actually end up in AAA if Balentien impresses this spring???

OnBaseMachine
02-21-2010, 05:46 PM
I think Wladimir Balentien is going to make the Opening Day roster unless he has a disastrous spring. Walt Jocketty seems to like him a lot, as do I. He's still only 25 years old, posted good numbers in the minor leagues (.273/.345/.526 - .871 OPS), played well in his short time with the Reds (.264/.352/.427 - .779 OPS in 125 PA), and he is a decent defender. He's got the skillset to develop into another Nelson Cruz type of player, IMO. I'm not saying he will, but he's got the talent to do so.

Will M
02-21-2010, 05:56 PM
I think Wladimir Balentien is going to make the Opening Day roster unless he has a disastrous spring. Walt Jocketty seems to like him a lot, as do I. He's still only 25 years old, posted good numbers in the minor leagues (.273/.345/.526 - .871 OPS), played well in his short time with the Reds (.264/.352/.427 - .779 OPS in 125 PA), and he is a decent defender. He's got the skillset to develop into another Nelson Cruz type of player, IMO. I'm not saying he will, but he's got the talent to do so.

i know what you are saying. imo Gomes seems superfluous since we have Balentien already.

maybe its this: Walt wants to hedge his bet a little. Gomes comes to camp in case Balentien turns into the 2008 & pre Reds 2009 version of himself.

lets say both Gomes & Balentien make the squad. one platoons with Dickerson in LF and the other is pure bench material (5th outfielder).
the Reds bench looks like this: Hanigan, Dickerson, Gomes/Balentien, and two of Miles/Janisch/Sutton. in this scenarion the bench has squat for a decent LH bat in the 120 games Dickerson starts. if the team wanted to add Nix as a LH bench bat they would have to either go with 11 pitchers or only 1 bench infielder.

kpresidente
02-21-2010, 06:13 PM
Balentien bats RH but splits like a LH.

pahster
02-21-2010, 06:17 PM
1. I've brought this up before but lets look at what Nix brings.

RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
LF Platoon of Dickerson & Gomes (or Balentien)

who is the main LH pinch hitter? Miles? Sutton? Yikes! Its gotta be Nix.
he could also play LF vs RHP if Dickerson is banged up.
he could also play LF vs RHP if Stubbs struggles & Dickerson plays some CF vs LHP.
is he better than Balentien or Gomes? No. But he hits left handed!

2. it has been brought up that Balentien hit RHP better than LHP last year. Not sure what this means. if this trend continues it would be an odditty.

3. if Gomes comes on board then we have some competition this spring. not just between the kids (who i suspect all start in AAA) but for the bats in LF vs RHP as well as the 5th outfielder spot.

4. could Gomes actually end up in AAA if Balentien impresses this spring???

Nix can't get on base. He plays above average defense (but so does Balentien) and has nice power, but he his inability to find first base hurts the Reds, a team that already has pretty severe on base problems. Balentien makes a lot more sense to me.

Rojo
02-21-2010, 06:22 PM
You need a lefty hitter off the bench

Do you?

Will M
02-21-2010, 06:28 PM
Do you?

yes.

imo a good bench should have one guy who hits RHP well & one guy who hits LHP well. by 'well' i mean an OPS+ of 110. why aren't these guys starters? likely because they play 1B/RF/LF where a starter needs to hit better. or maybe they play 2b/3b but not very well. add a backup catcher, backup infielder & 5th outfielder who can play CF and you have yourself a bench.

with a teams RH closer or setup guy on the mound in a late inning situation with guys on base you want to have someone on the bench who hits RHP well and can hit the ball out of the infield.

as to the 'Balentien hits RHP better than LHP' arguement is this a one year fluke or is this really true?

kpresidente
02-21-2010, 06:31 PM
as to the 'Balentien hits RHP better than LHP' arguement is this a one year fluke or is this really true?

It's not a large split, but it goes back all the way through his minor-league career.

Will M
02-21-2010, 06:37 PM
It's not a large split, but it goes back all the way through his minor-league career.

interesting. i wonder why. its good however as Balentien has more upside than Nix. Nix would be great as a guy stashed in AAA who comes up in case of injury. he isn't nearly as bad as a lot of ORG guys think. he was worth +1 WAR last year.

GADawg
02-21-2010, 06:45 PM
i think it's gonna be Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce with Dickerson doing kind of a floating platoon between left and center.

Kc61
02-21-2010, 07:39 PM
Do you?

You do. Most pitching is right handed. It makes no sense to always be playing against the percentages. One good lefty hitting player on the bench is important. Nix hits righties.

That said, I'm not sure the Reds will select Nix over Balentien. Wlad is out of options and the Reds may just not be willing to risk losing him.

But keep in mind, if the Reds were so high on Wlad, why sign Gomes? I wouldn't be shocked if Wlad were traded for a minor leaguer or if the Reds tried to sneak him down to AAA.

As for Francisco and Frazier, I don't see them on the opening day roster. IMO Frazier has virtually no chance, he hasn't played much AAA and no MLB experience. IMO, Francisco will be sent to AAA to work on plate discipline and defense. Both Todd and Juan should see MLB time later in the year.

OUReds
02-21-2010, 08:03 PM
as to the 'Balentien hits RHP better than LHP' arguement is this a one year fluke or is this really true?

.050ish better OPS against righties for his minor league career.

Minor League L/R Splits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=434605)

Yr Team Split AB H 2B 3B HR W IW HP K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP GB% LD% FB% IF/F
2005 Inland Empire vs. LH 83 21 7 0 5 8 0 1 29 0.253 0.323 0.518 0.841 0.327 30.9% 10.9% 56.4% 8.1%
vs. RH 409 122 31 8 20 25 0 5 131 0.298 0.342 0.560 0.902 0.395 34.7% 14.0% 51.2% 13.4%
2006 San Antonio vs. LH 88 20 3 0 5 17 4 0 31 0.227 0.349 0.432 0.781 0.288 37.9% 20.7% 41.4% 5.6%
vs. RH 356 82 20 1 17 53 1 4 109 0.230 0.334 0.435 0.769 0.283 44.8% 12.8% 42.4% 14.5%
2007 Tacoma vs. LH 108 27 4 0 7 18 2 1 21 0.250 0.357 0.481 0.838 0.250 43.8% 13.5% 42.7% 16.0%
vs. RH 339 102 17 4 14 35 1 2 75 0.301 0.365 0.499 0.864 0.352 41.0% 19.6% 39.5% 14.4%
2008 Tacoma vs. LH 45 10 6 0 1 7 0 1 11 0.222 0.333 0.422 0.755 0.273 20.0% 20.0% 60.0% 17.9%
vs. RH 188 52 14 0 17 25 0 2 38 0.277 0.359 0.622 0.981 0.263 27.6% 20.5% 51.3% 14.3%
Car vs. LH 324 78 20 0 18 50 6 3 92 0.241 0.343 0.469 0.812 0.280 35.9% 15.6% 48.1% 11.9%
vs. RH 1292 358 82 13 68 138 2 13 353 0.277 0.348 0.519 0.867 0.333 37.9% 16.3% 45.6% 14.1%

I don't know how to make it look all prettified, sorry.

camisadelgolf
02-21-2010, 08:11 PM
Yr Team Split AB H 2B 3B HR W IW HP K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP GB% LD% FB% IF/F
2005 Inland Empire vs. LH 83 21 7 0 5 8 0 1 29 0.253 0.323 0.518 0.841 0.327 30.9% 10.9% 56.4% 8.1%
vs. RH 409 122 31 8 20 25 0 5 131 0.298 0.342 0.560 0.902 0.395 34.7% 14.0% 51.2% 13.4%
2006 San Antonio vs. LH 88 20 3 0 5 17 4 0 31 0.227 0.349 0.432 0.781 0.288 37.9% 20.7% 41.4% 5.6%
vs. RH 356 82 20 1 17 53 1 4 109 0.230 0.334 0.435 0.769 0.283 44.8% 12.8% 42.4% 14.5%
2007 Tacoma vs. LH 108 27 4 0 7 18 2 1 21 0.250 0.357 0.481 0.838 0.250 43.8% 13.5% 42.7% 16.0%
vs. RH 339 102 17 4 14 35 1 2 75 0.301 0.365 0.499 0.864 0.352 41.0% 19.6% 39.5% 14.4%
2008 Tacoma vs. LH 45 10 6 0 1 7 0 1 11 0.222 0.333 0.422 0.755 0.273 20.0% 20.0% 60.0% 17.9%
vs. RH 188 52 14 0 17 25 0 2 38 0.277 0.359 0.622 0.981 0.263 27.6% 20.5% 51.3% 14.3%
Car vs. LH 324 78 20 0 18 50 6 3 92 0.241 0.343 0.469 0.812 0.280 35.9% 15.6% 48.1% 11.9%
vs. RH 1292 358 82 13 68 138 2 13 353 0.277 0.348 0.519 0.867 0.333 37.9% 16.3% 45.6% 14.1%

RedsManRick
02-21-2010, 08:27 PM
I don't think there's anyway the Reds let Balentien walk and it's why I think Gomes is unnecessary. Stubbs will get to play more or less everyday, with Dickerson spotting in against tough righties and splitting time with Balentien in LF the rest of the time.

I think Heisey is virtually guaranteed to be headed back to AAA due to the numbers game and it's basically between Gomes and Nix for the 5th OF spot. Both guys bring power from different sides of the plate. Gomes is the "proven" guy but Nix plays better defense and that's why I think he'll make the team. There's a reason the Reds don't want to give Gomes a major league deal...

pahster
02-21-2010, 08:40 PM
I don't think there's anyway the Reds let Balentien walk and it's why I think Gomes is unnecessary. Stubbs will get to play more or less everyday, with Dickerson spotting in against tough righties and splitting time with Balentien in LF the rest of the time.

I think Heisey is virtually guaranteed to be headed back to AAA due to the numbers game and it's basically between Gomes and Nix for the 5th OF spot. Both guys bring power from different sides of the plate. Gomes is the "proven" guy but Nix plays better defense and that's why I think he'll make the team. There's a reason the Reds don't want to give Gomes a major league deal...

Nix's career OBP is .277. Last year (his best, by far) it was .291. Against righties, it was .300 last year (.502 SLG, which is very nice) and his career split VS righties sits at .285. As nice as his power and D are, I'm not sure a team as OBP-challenged as the Reds can afford to carry him.

RedsManRick
02-21-2010, 08:50 PM
Nix's career OBP is .277. Last year (his best, by far) it was .291. Against righties, it was .300 last year (.502 SLG, which is very nice) and his career split VS righties sits at .285. As nice as his power and D are, I'm not sure a team as OBP-challenged as the Reds can afford to carry him.

I'm not making the case for who I'd carry, but who I think the Reds will carry. The Reds have it made it abundantly clear that OBP is not at (if even near) the top of the list of things they consider.

As as far as OBP goes, Gomes is hardly a great alternative.

pahster
02-21-2010, 09:10 PM
I'm not making the case for who I'd carry, but who I think the Reds will carry. The Reds have it made it abundantly clear that OBP is not at (if even near) the top of the list of things they consider.

As as far as OBP goes, Gomes is hardly a great alternative.

True, Gomes isn't an OBP beast, but he beats Nix by .053 for their careers. That's pretty substantial, but I think it's more of a testament to how bad Nix is rather than how good Gomes is.

I figure whichever one ends up with the roster spot (I suspect it'll be Gomes. Why bring him back otherwise?) will just be keeping it warm for either Heisey or Frazier anyway.

mth123
02-21-2010, 09:15 PM
I'm for 6 OF and only 5 IF.

Bruce, Stubbs/Dickerson, Gomes/Nix/Wlad

Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Cabrera, Sutton

No need for a defensive specialist like Janish on the bench. He can be called up if cabrera hits the DL. No need for Miles under any circumstances.

If they must keep 6 IF, then Nix is the one to go IMO.

11larkin11
02-22-2010, 02:29 AM
I'm not really sure what Nix bring to the fold. Dickerson is here for sure, and he and Balentein are both better vs. RHs than LHs. I think the OF is set if Gomes signs. I'd be for letting Gomes and Balentein battle it out for LF, if neither grabs the job, platoon them.

corkedbat
02-22-2010, 02:31 AM
I'm not making the case for who I'd carry, but who I think the Reds will carry. The Reds have it made it abundantly clear that OBP is not at (if even near) the top of the list of things they consider.

As as far as OBP goes, Gomes is hardly a great alternative.

Nix would have the superior glove, but it wouldn't shock me if Dorn were able to outdo him at the plate

Rojo
02-22-2010, 04:20 PM
imo a good bench should have one guy who hits RHP well

Well that's not necessarily the same thing. Righties give you more flexibilty because their splits aren't usually as dramatic. Lifetime, Gomes has a 122/89 OPS+ split, Nyx a 109/42. IOW, you never want Nyx facing a lefty.

Spring~Fields
02-22-2010, 11:54 PM
I'm not making the case for who I'd carry, but who I think the Reds will carry. The Reds have it made it abundantly clear that OBP is not at (if even near) the top of the list of things they consider.

As as far as OBP goes, Gomes is hardly a great alternative.

Wish I could disagree with you, but, I can't.

WVRedsFan
02-23-2010, 12:37 AM
Gomes will either thrill us this year or become the Patterson/Taveras of 2010. To be frank, I don't know which. I do know that someone is going to have to go and I don't want to get rid of anyone. That's refreshing to me.

corkedbat
02-23-2010, 01:11 AM
I expect Gomes to get quite a few starts/ABs the first couple of months with slightly less production (but not a drastic falloff), then giving way to youngsters and becoming the primary bat off the bench.

Ron Madden
02-23-2010, 04:14 AM
I believe Nix could be a cheap LH bat off the bench but I gotta admit I might have more faith in the Kids right now.

nate
02-23-2010, 09:16 AM
Gomes will either thrill us this year or become the Patterson/Taveras of 2010. To be frank, I don't know which. I do know that someone is going to have to go and I don't want to get rid of anyone. That's refreshing to me.

Or he'll put up something resembling his career numbers which is kind of "meh."

reds1869
02-23-2010, 09:23 AM
Are you ruling out Francisco? For the record, I think he needs more time in AAA myself, but given how highly many at RZ think of 'cisco, just curious.

I like Juan a lot. Very much in fact, and I think he is our third sacker of the future. With Rolen here for a couple more years there is no need to move him to LF. Let him develop a tad more patience in AAA to go along with his monster power. I think the eventual solution will be Votto in left, Francisco at third and Alonso at first. No need to put Francisco in LF for one year and derail that future.

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 09:41 AM
I like Juan a lot. Very much in fact, and I think he is our third sacker of the future. With Rolen here for a couple more years there is no need to move him to LF. Let him develop a tad more patience in AAA to go along with his monster power. I think the eventual solution will be Votto in left, Francisco at third and Alonso at first. No need to put Francisco in LF for one year and derail that future.

If Francisco is going to make it he needs to become more patient. I would start him off in AAA on the Obie plan. He is to take the first pitch of every at bat. I would have times in the at bat where the take signal would be given. I would have times in which he would be ordered to go the other way in an at bat. I don't want to take the bat out of his hands, just turn him into a better patient hitter.